Bitcoin Forum

As we know at the end of 2021 the price of bitcoin decreased due to entering a bear market because of the new year.
But now bitcoin continues to decline again due to Russia's war with Ukraine.
In your opinion, is this the reason the bitcoin price keeps dropping, sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down again.
Because there is a new issue that says that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine but the American mind.

Nonsense.


I would almost say this is nonsense as well but I'll leave it at there is no proof of that alleged causal relationship.


I would say that after last year's failed predictions, no one is quite clear why the price is behaving the way it is. The possible war may influence in the short term but we don't know if it is going to influence it up or down.


What? I don't understand you.

Have you never looked at the charts before? :D

You either don't know the meaning of these words or you are confusing fluctuations with "keep dropping". Bitcoin would have been in a bear market and you could have called the price "keeps dropping" if it went to $40k then $30k then $20k then $10k. But when it dropped to $30k then came back up to $45k then $41k, this is not called a "bear market" or referred to as "keep dropping".

There was a drop and it ended more than 2 weeks ago and price is not recovering from that drop. The $4k drop after a $15k rise is not actually a drop, it is more like a correction before next rise.

I don’t think you could really classify that the Bitcoin’s price is related to the event of Ukraine and Russia. I like is there a major sell-off between the two countries? Is there even a way to verify that it came from there?

Anyway OP, do you have any research articles that have this kind of approach or subject?

Try and take a look a four year charts for Bitcoin price, from 2009 to 2012, from 2012 to 2016, from 2016 to 2020, from 2020 to recently. You will notice they have a similar pattern. There are times the market will be very bullish and there are times the market will be very bearish. What is happening now is not a surprise, people were expecting it. I have not seen any good reason how Bitcoin price this time is linked to what is going on in Russia and Ukraine.

It is just a question, is this not harsh.

Every single time one of these scenarios comes up I have to go look at the price charts till I nearly get squint trying to see what others see as definitely having happened. That aside, why would people sell because of the new year and not because of Christmas?


Because we don't have a war yet, what is happening now could be only speculation, we have recovered quite fast after the last drop so small swings back and forth should be respected. But in the event war does start I'm pretty sure at the first bomb we will see one huge red dildo on the market, even if it will recover later it's going to be there, and everything is going to be affected by it from stocks to oil albeit obviously in different directions.

The ups and downs of the Bitcoin price are basically only influenced by the balance of supply and demand and this of course has become a law of the market, so until now I personally did not think that a conflict in a country would have an impact on the price of bitcoin because bitcoin is not the mainstream currency used in every country but bitcoin is only as an alternative currency so it has nothing to do with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The signs of war began about a month ago with the military mobilization, and therefore we cannot link these events together, as price stability (or continuous decline) began since the month of 11.

In general, we did not notice a realistic connection between Bitcoin and political events until when the Covid-19 pandemic was declared.
Other than that, we did not witness any realistic correlation that affected the price directly and led to changes by more than 25%.

It could be one reason of the decline, not just in crypto but even stocks are also plummeting because of this news.

However, it seems that we are in a good support position at $40k, there's no more decline as the market really covered it despite this negative news. Hopefully though, the war could be averted and this two countries with the help of NATO can just sit down and talk out their differences.

There's no to directly prove this since its a 2 different matter but many analyst as well as speculators usually use this as a reason to sell there asset due to the economy implication if the war ignites. The war is really not related to Bitcoin price but the speculation of traders is the main reason why the price of Bitcoin and Global stock market is decreasing. This a ripple effect that is inevitable especially when there's a fear in the market. Traders is using bad news to create FUD and that is the reality.

Some recent news on Stock Market and Bitcoin Related to Russia-Ukraine Tension:

Dow Falls 600 Points As Russia-Ukraine Tensions Reach A ‘Crucial Moment’ - https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/02/17/stock-market-losses-grow-as-russia-ukraine-tensions-reach-a-crucial-moment/?sh=f431c2c4c9bc
US stocks point lower as Russia-Ukraine uncertainties persist - https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/investing/dow-stock-market-today-russia-ukraine/index.html
US stocks point lower as Russia-Ukraine uncertainties persist - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/17/markets-stocks-russia-ukraine/
Bitcoin Wilts as Russia-Ukraine Tensions  - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/02/18/bitcoin-wilts-as-russia-ukraine-tensions-push-gold-to-8-month-high/

Bitcoin was not existing during world war 1 and 2, we do not know what can happen this time, but you are not wrong with what you have said, Bitcoin price is not linked to any conflict going on right now, it is just the way Bitcoin has even been in past.

For me, all I know that happened about Covid and Bitcoin price was that people googled more about Bitcoin, gambling, cryptocurrencies and other digital means of earning money, the price of Bitcoin because of this later increased. When Bitcoin falled to $3900 in 2020, some people said it is Covid 19, I don't believe because this also happened in 2019 when Bitcoin falled below $3900.

Wait what? the price decreased because of Bear market? redundant term? of course price will decrease because Bear is coming lol.

actually price already grow after that news, look from 30k now stands 40k?

Lol market is reacting to how the demand and supply moves, and this war? is like what other FUD brings in the past.

OP,are you using Google Translate or something?
It seems to me that some AI robot had written your forum post. ;D
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine/NATO/USA has an impact over the global financial markets,not just the cryptocurrency markets.There's no proof of a direct correlation between this conflict and what's happening with the Bitcoin price.However,nobody could deny that there's an influence over the BTC price,stocks prices,indexes,commodity prices,etc.
I'm sure that Putin won't invade Ukraine,but for some reason,he wants to keep the tension on the Russo-Ukrainian borders.He has some hidden agenda.

Not totally maybe those things happen because many people expect to much that the market will go more higher, that's why many got dismay when market begin crashing and that when the fuds start. And also this incident in Ukraine add the fud but manipulators cannot use this incident for long time so prepare to buy some if you want to earn on this current manipulation event happen these days.

This wasn't the reason for Bitcoin dip in 2021. Different factors contributed to it which includes fundamental and technical analysis. For the fundamental we had issues of china banning crypto and also mining for technical analysis we had issues of supply and demand both contributed immensely to the price fluctuation.


Russian war isn't enough reason for Bitcoin drop Bitcoin isn't a centralized asset. China was able to have little influence back then because china had the largest crypto market but currently the circulation is no longer limited it's strictly demand and supply that moves the market now

Pandemic is worldwide but this war is only specific to two countries and a few people can react. The war can bring positive effects in the price because people can pull out their money in traditional investments and put it in cryptos because they think its safer or it can also bring a negative effect because people might worry and sell early because they think they cannot sell anymore later on.

While some people will not buy quickly but they will wait for a further drop because they believe that negative news do always have a negative impact to the price of cryptos. Wars have an ending and soon this ends, the mindset of the people will also return in normal and so as the market.

The war wont cause a wider bear market.   We just had a short war between Armenian and Azerbaijan forces but it caused no wider alarm beyond that area and no notice from the western markets.   Ukraine is being highlighted politically because of Russia's ambitions to reestablish the territory of soviet times.   It keys into wider wars echoing back to the Russian Afghan invasion of the 80's and earlier, the whole cold war escalation is in contention.
   Recently we spiked in Dollar Index value, add in markets retracting from peak loose monetary policy and the war is multiplied in its fears.   The main direct economic effect would be the cost of Gas to the EU block, this also increases costs and reduces free cash flow in those economies which is a secondary cause of harder money less speculative activity.

World issues affects the price of Bitcoin, it creates another panic in the market and I think this war issues will continue to affect Bitcoin especially if War really begins since this is not just Ukraine vs Russia, many countries are getting involve here and they are trying to issue warning against Russia but not one is backing out, we should be ready for every possibilities.

Yes this is one of the reasons but Not only reason why Bitcoin is down. You need to understand most global markets are connected in one way or another.

Generally when stock market goes up, usually cryptos follow and same is true for vice versa. Lately there has been lots of bad news such as Omnicron variant, fed easing tapering, fed raising rates, bad earnings and latest is the Russian conflict.

So this is why it’s correlated to the stock market and how the stock market affects negatively due to WW3 rumors.

I saw the reactions of other community users via op points line's, i hope we all aware that what really destabillzed and downgrade the values of commodities and also give recommendations of good reputation or bad reputation is information either positive information or negative information, so op might be correct from his own aspect of understanding cryptocurrency.

Because in actual sense bitcoin downfall or decrement in value start's with the information, because propaganda in cryptocurrency also devalues crypto market structural system, so concerning or the aspect of price going down, actually the price of bitcoin started shaking from last year to the extent predictors have to suggest that Bitcoin will not get hit of hundred thousand (100k) in 2022.

Even to the extent some portray that bitcoin will not experience fifty thousand (50k) this year and it will fall to  twenty thousand (20) to nineteen thousand (19), but we experienced a slight move of bitcoin which it approaches to forty five thousand (45) and now is at point of thirty nine thousand (39), which i think it will go downgrade below the present stage.

Entering the new year had nothing to do with Bitcoin's decrease in price, it was simply timed as such imo. It did enter a bear market though, I won't deny that (might still even be in one tbf). Russia vs Ukraine has nothing major on the coin imo, though I may be wrong. Bitcoin going up and down is simply because of demand and supply, people probably thought that maybe it's time to sell after that big pump to the ATH. Nothing new, we've experienced this countless times after all. I'd doubt that the Russia thing is a major cause for the dip, could be a minor one though.

What you said above is all nonsense Op,  because obviously it's their own problem and crypto market are not included on that issue.
So i suggest stop worrying because it cannot make an impact in the market , but surely spreading such false information does affect and can make the current situation of market even worse.

I do not think that the war between Russia and Ukraine impact the bitcoin price declining but even if that is true, we can do it except just accept the situation. Even if the analyst related to the war with the crypto market, you do not have to worry because the crypto market will soon recover and be back to the high price. Maybe you need to take a break for a while from the market to calm down your mind and not think that it is because of the negative side that happens in real life.

To be honest, from my side. I don't find any reason that the war between Russia and Ukraine will affect the cryptocurrency market too.
This is not my first time to see a conversation about Russia/Ukraine things and tell that the cryptocurrency or Bitcoin prices will be affected.

Just a little part of it but I doubt it's all because of it.
You cannot blame just one event when a market plunge especially in cryptocurrencies. This ain't the normal investment schemes that happens in one place but it's global and there's still a lot of people who believes in Bitcoin's future so they hold. Economic problems are also considered when an asset goes down. Check that out.

American mind? You mean the gossipers who receives news out of comedy central?

If the market continue to decline after another month, it will just be another havling cycle for crypto which means the anticipated  supercycle failed. Its the same pattern as Russia-Ukraine war has nothing to do with it.

But I think BTC will go up if there will be war.
God forbid because this war will be the most terrible due to the nukes each party had been developing. Large portion of earth could be wiped out

There's really a possibility that Bitcoin might skyrocket if the war ignite since people find a way to transfer there asset to something that can't be destroy but there's no guarantee that we are all alive if a war really ignite since its probably the start of WW3 which nukes will gonna flood the sky targeting each other country. But I believe this cold war will gonna stop once each side come up to an agreement that will benefit both country.

Honestly, Only Ukraine wants to start it since there leader is urging NATO to do an aggressive action towards Russia because they are already scared and can't be take the responsibility of his action.

These days will be over soon enough. Even if there is a war, it will go on for a year, or less, or more, maybe 10 years, maybe 20, who knows and it could be as horrible as it gets but it will be over and I can guarantee you that. Every time there is a war in the world, there is always a situation where we ended it and moved on, at least until the next one. So, do not be worried about crypto in the short term right now, just ignore it, and focus on getting better in the long run.

I personally believe that we are going to be doing better and this war will not happen. Russia will act like they will, then make everyone get a huge defensive stance, then they will go to their own news channels and say "see how they are afraid of us LOL" and then think that they won and move on.

That's simply because it had practically no media coverage since there wasn't that much benefit in giving it the same amount of attention. Conversely the Russian situation has a lot of benefits for example the pressure that US is putting on EU to abandon Russian gas dependency and the massive amount of arms they are selling to multiple countries due to this small tension are some of the big benefits of covering the news and putting it under a massive magnifying glass.
Of course the market manipulators take advantage to squeeze any satoshi they can from weak hands :D I still don't see any bear markets though.

It really makes no sense to me that a war so far from American or even Western European soil would have an impact on Bitcoin price.

The relation between the markets is simple.

People are afraid that an armed conflict will create sanctions and stop foreign trade. That can result in companies losing money, Ukrainians migrating West, business centers relocating, and more.
Losses in foreign trade, broken foreign relations, possibly real damages to infrastructure, all this will result in losses for companies and businessmen who have money invested in Eastern Europe.
For this reason you see the stock market falling and many investors have also money in crypto so they sell these currencies to cover their losses on other markets.

Bitcoin is still strong and not damaged by this in any way. If you held it at 30k in Summer 2021 and you held it at 30k in January of this year, just keep doing so.

You got a point, investors who are invested in other markets might cover their losses booking their profit in Bitcoin, i am not sure about the war, there are conflicting stories in the air, the US media is talking about war being imminent and in Europe things are not in the same page as even the German MP came out with the tactics played by the US in escalating the situation. Either way we are facing a huge crisis economically.

Are we sure that the potential war is the main reason for the crypto prices to fall? I am not saying that it is not, however, at the same time it doesn't look like something unusual for the market to fall at times and it could be just a coincidence that it happened at this time as well. I mean we were low just a month ago, and we are low again right now, just because we had an uptrend in the middle doesn't mean that it had to go on like that until the war scare. Plus, the price was going up when Russia was moving soldiers to the border, not like they did it a day or two ago, it has been like this for a while and when it first started the price was going up. So I am not sure if that is %100 the reason, maybe it has something to do with it but not the whole reason for sure.

It’s common sense that if there are reports of a war that the markets will tank. Depending on the severity it might bottom out the following days. However most people are already pricing this in. And there won’t be a war.

This is all just political. Stir the markets and get a few weak hands to sell. Even if there is a war it’s most likely going to be pretty short and nothing of WW3 which is what some are speculating.

Im not sure if this is the main reason but what I am pretty sure is that each time the market made its way to super high capitalization , mostly the following years will be a dumping season so meaning this is what it be, and the bear seemingly to stay for at least this year or the next?
but we can of course speculate what ever we wanted because it is our funds who will be in risk but make sure that you know where to get out and when to enter.

It is possible if the issue of the problem between Russia and Ukraine is on cryptocurrency, mining, bitcoin or something close to that but now it is not but political so it should not affect the price of bitcoin. Speculation of bitcoin last year even before the intensity of the Russian and Ukraine problem was to see bitcoin going bear so no need for surprise now that it is happening, could be coincidence with the problem of Russia and Ukraine.

And what I was saying?
First bomb and one huge drop, stocks getting hammered oil over 100$.
Of course, it was pretty obvious this is going to happen, I doubt anybody is genuinely surprised by the outcome.

Now the interesting part if we look just at speculation about the price is if we're going to see a serious bounce later today, bitcoin is far more volatile and far more traded based on feelings and tweets than the others so a breakthrough in the opposite direction can't be excluded. But if the situation goes worse, I just hope the 30k will hold, and at least not crash in 24h, that would be pretty damn bad.

It does make sense, Russia is in Europe the land mass that is and so is this war.    You have Russia attempt to supply 60% of Germanys energy needs then some how we end up here where no such deal can take place and instead an invasion occurs.    Europe relies on Ukraine indirectly for its energy consumption.    I can see why people say it doesn't matter but the implication of Russia reassuming the terrority of USSR makes it a serious threat  to world peace.
   That causes oil to rise which causes economies to slow in its greater cost, its greater pressure on BTC apparently from a higher Dollar.   Long term I agree things arent altered presuming we dont get further expansion, but each month they have progressed the scenario hence the fear meter is full right now.

Why does a slowing economy matter, monetary velocity is especially relevant to Bitcoin.  The whole idea Bitcoin started off with was in the origins of (western) QE which is effectively a giant devaluation of currency standards, excessive liquidity or fast money however you want to put it.   War is people desperately clutching onto whatever money they have, money goes to essential supplies, anything speculative will retract.    Its all relevant in a global economy, europes war is your war like it or not.

Mining is a big deal, Russia is a great nation when it comes to energy and the prices are very low in certain areas and that means between the cold air and also the situation with cheap electricity that means that miners that used to work in China ended up going to Russia and with this war and the upcoming economical crisis due to sanctions (and it even started right now) they are going to be doing even better. They do not need that much money anymore, why? Because, the dollar they are making from the bitcoin means that they are able to buy even more.

Inflation and economic crisis hurts people who work in that nation but if you are making dollars then it is even better for you. That is why I believe that Russian miners could be selling a lot more right now and a lot cheaper and that could be changing the price a lot more and that could be the problem.

Bitcoin price is dependent of the combat zone circumstance. Since the conflict began the environment for the economy is horrible, and the net worth of market is sinking. Billions of stablecoins leaving the market, it's going on gold, oil and commodities. Additionally big money is purchasing now, after looking at account bigger than 100 BTC holders are increasing. It's institutional money leaving the market and less liquidity isn't great in any way. Truly negative for the world economy. In this way, Bitcoin also on short and mid term.

Ukraine itself is a energy and other stuff nation as well, I mean it is not just Russia. Why do you think we had that scare recently about the nuclear plant getting bombed, that nuclear plant doesn't just give energy to Ukraine, it helps many nations surrounding Ukraine as well. There are a ton of other stuff as well. Whereas Russia also have a lot of energy related power over the world too.

The rise in price for bitcoin was mainly due to sanctions to Russia and Russians all coming together the go around it, they did it all at once at the first days and that impacted the price a lot. They are still doing it, but not all at once and all together, they do it regularly and smaller. Which is why there was a big increase, and then resulted with a drop.

However, there are still many factors that will contribute to the price of bitcoin and not just it is dependent of the combat zone or war. And in the last 24 hours, we have seen the price breaking the $40k barrier and it seems to be going again and could hit $45k which is the next mental barrier.

Like the covid-19 pandemic, sure it hits everyone including crypto market but we slowly gain and even goes for a new all time high with the pandemic still around.

There is always a cause and effect as to why bitcoin prices fluctuate and so far such swings can be considered normal as long as bitcoin doesn't dump its price more than 20% in a day. Market behavior is very sensitive to FUD or negative news during this time, people panic and really want to sell when FUD news spreads in various media and we can't blame it.

We should not always rely on the war between Russia and Ukraine to find out why this up and down movement is happening because there are more things or other factors that have to be rational reasons that can change the trend or market sentiment for better or for worse. So far bitcoin continues to strengthen, and we can expect $45K resistance to be broken.

This is why it is important to not only look at what the TA is indicating but also look at the fundamentals of a project to know whether it can recover quickly or not, after all when the war broke out everything with the exception of oil and a few other assets went down, and that included bitcoin, however since then the price has experiment a small recovery followed by small corrections as well, so given enough time bitcoin will recover, we just need to be patient and hold our coins until that day comes.