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Other => Politics & Society => Topic started by: paxmao on March 05, 2022, 10:22:24 PM



Title: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 05, 2022, 10:22:24 PM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.



Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Gyfts on March 06, 2022, 09:20:01 AM
He also believes Zelenskyy, a jew, is leader of some sort of Nazi regime. His justifications for invasion are mostly not logical. The only reason that makes any sense is he doesn't want a NATO affiliated country near his borders. Understandable, but not worthy of an invasion so he takes the "de-Nazification" approach instead.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 06, 2022, 11:39:06 AM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.



He is trying to submit it as a declaration of war to justify the military invasion, which has already begun and its future continuation. He has always had rhetoric that the West is bad, that it oppresses Russia and prevents it from being a great country. These sanctions are even suitable for him, because they can be used as a further reinforcement of his theses. He does not deceive people completely, he tells them half-truths, distorted causes, conditions and consequences of real facts. And this is much more dangerous, because they can find some factual data, and therefore - to believe in all the other explanations. For all reasonable people economic sanctions are not a war declaration. But the Russian population has been taught to think only within a limited framework that is beneficial to the government, and therefore for them economic sanctions are war declaration. With this in mind they can go and continue to kill Ukrainians.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: lumbanrang on March 06, 2022, 02:35:21 PM
Of course, because sanctions are imposed for an action that is detrimental to a country and this is something that must be done and to give a warning to that country. Economic sanctions will only have a negative impact on the economy of a country in the long term, but will not cause people to die in that country.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: KingScorpio on March 06, 2022, 04:16:40 PM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.



is genocide a war declaration?

cause that puts putin in the right.

ukranians where terrorising parts of their population as so called "insurgencies" that live there since 1000 years



He also believes Zelenskyy, a jew, is leader of some sort of Nazi regime. His justifications for invasion are mostly not logical. The only reason that makes any sense is he doesn't want a NATO affiliated country near his borders. Understandable, but not worthy of an invasion so he takes the "de-Nazification" approach instead.

he is a leader of a nazi regime,

it is how it is.

ukranian nazis supporting a jew, discriminating against the russians in ukraine and commiting an economic and ethnic genocide. preventing them from declaring independence,

they try to force the 40% russians living in ukraine into the ukranian nazi system,

ukraine is not run like switzerland its run like nazi germany with large chunks of poland still part of it,

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 06, 2022, 06:58:01 PM

he is a leader of a nazi regime,

it is how it is.

ukranian nazis supporting a jew, discriminating against the russians in ukraine and commiting an economic and ethnic genocide. preventing them from declaring independence,

they try to force the 40% russians living in ukraine into the ukranian nazi system,

ukraine is not run like switzerland its run like nazi germany with large chunks of poland still part of it,

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMgMecvXMAU0hjH.jpg

For those, who don`t speak russian, this image says "The Israeli Ambassador to Russia has been summoned to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Moscow accuses Jerusalem of supporting the Nazis". The whole logic of these people in two sentences.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 06, 2022, 10:18:44 PM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.


Economic sanctions are an act of war. Their intentions are to coerce those who the sanctions are being imposed on to change their ways.

Obviously, sanctions are not the same as bombing a country or shooting at a country's military. Going from sanctions to actual violence is a major escalation.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 07, 2022, 12:08:24 AM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.


Economic sanctions are an act of war. Their intentions are to coerce those who the sanctions are being imposed on to change their ways.

Obviously, sanctions are not the same as bombing a country or shooting at a country's military. Going from sanctions to actual violence is a major escalation.

You obviously do not understand what is legally a war, and what is worse, you have not bothered to look for any conventional definition of act of war. A word of advice, sometimes using Google is fine.

War -
Quote
a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country.

Acts of war examples:
Quote
In 1974, General Assembly Resolution 3314 defined and gave some examples of aggression. Article 3 gave, as examples, invasion or attack by armed forces of a state, military occupation, bombardment against the territory of another state, blockade of ports or coasts, action of a state in allowing its territory to be used for preparing an act of aggression against a third state, and the sending of armed bands, groups, irregulars, or mercenaries to carry out acts of armed force against another state...

You see, curiously enough, a number of acts of war were actually committed by Putin against Ukraine even before the full invasion, yet economic sanctions are not considered as such. Coercion or, better said, influencing, is everyday's business in diplomacy and international relations. Everyone would be at war if you consider tariffs and commercial restrictions an act of war.

Seriously, did Putin expect to start a war of aggression in Europe without any economic consequence??

...

he is a leader of a nazi regime,
...

Oh, just drop it my, you are making a fool of yourself trying this over and over.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: libertasbella on March 07, 2022, 12:22:10 AM
Anything's a declaration of war if you want to declare war.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: cmg777 on March 07, 2022, 12:35:08 AM
As an American I can give two shits about this war in the Ukraine. From what I've understood, the Balkans have always been contentious region of the world ripe for war. So here are my two cents on all of this:

http://198.46.190.126/images/norussian.png

http://198.46.190.126/images/punishrussia.jpg

So in short it is these people that have caused war/woe onto me and the American people. The corporate/governmental elite and their paid cronies.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 07, 2022, 01:10:14 AM
As an American I can give two shits about this war in the Ukraine. From what I've understood, the Balkans have always been contentious region of the world ripe for war.

At least learn to stereotype correctly... Balkans ::)

"all those youroopeeyans look the same to me" LOL


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 07, 2022, 01:45:37 AM
Putin's existence is a declaration of war.

Bomb these Soviet dictators and their sympathizers to the Stone Age.  Disarm them and make them pay.

This imperialistic ideology needs to die.  Break up Russia into smaller countries.



Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Hetadrop on March 07, 2022, 02:19:01 AM
As an American I can give two shits about this war in the Ukraine.

So in short it is these people that have caused war/woe onto me and the American people. The corporate/governmental elite and their paid cronies.
Looks like you are a bit off here, just because you are not affected?
Putin is a rude killer and he's responsible for killing civilians: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-irpin-civilian-death.html

You seem to behave like a spoonfed child.  :D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 07, 2022, 03:38:09 AM
You obviously do not understand what is legally a war, and what is worse, you have not bothered to look for any conventional definition of act of war. A word of advice, sometimes using Google is fine.

War -
Quote
a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country.

Acts of war examples:
Quote
In 1974, General Assembly Resolution 3314 defined and gave some examples of aggression. Article 3 gave, as examples, invasion or attack by armed forces of a state, military occupation, bombardment against the territory of another state, blockade of ports or coasts, action of a state in allowing its territory to be used for preparing an act of aggression against a third state, and the sending of armed bands, groups, irregulars, or mercenaries to carry out acts of armed force against another state...
The "legal" term of "war" is meaningless. If the country on the receiving end of sanctions decides that the sanctions make an escalation necessary, they will escalate.

If Putin decides to respond to sanctions by bombing the US, there is nothing stopping him from doing so, except the consequences of said bombings to Russia. Said consequences would include retaliation on the part of the US and its allies. If Russia were to win such a conflict, there would be no mechanism in place to punish Russia for the escalation.

It is unlikely that Russia would win a war against the US, so Putin is unlikely to escalate against NATO. Putin is talking tough because he is hoping that NATO countries do not want to go to war, and will be willing to back down from sanctions under the threat of war.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 07, 2022, 04:37:33 AM
You obviously do not understand what is legally a war, and what is worse, you have not bothered to look for any conventional definition of act of war. A word of advice, sometimes using Google is fine.

War -
Quote
a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country.

Acts of war examples:
Quote
In 1974, General Assembly Resolution 3314 defined and gave some examples of aggression. Article 3 gave, as examples, invasion or attack by armed forces of a state, military occupation, bombardment against the territory of another state, blockade of ports or coasts, action of a state in allowing its territory to be used for preparing an act of aggression against a third state, and the sending of armed bands, groups, irregulars, or mercenaries to carry out acts of armed force against another state...
The "legal" term of "war" is meaningless. If the country on the receiving end of sanctions decides that the sanctions make an escalation necessary, they will escalate.

If Putin decides to respond to sanctions by bombing the US, there is nothing stopping him from doing so, except the consequences of said bombings to Russia. Said consequences would include retaliation on the part of the US and its allies. If Russia were to win such a conflict, there would be no mechanism in place to punish Russia for the escalation.

It is unlikely that Russia would win a war against the US, so Putin is unlikely to escalate against NATO. Putin is talking tough because he is hoping that NATO countries do not want to go to war, and will be willing to back down from sanctions under the threat of war.

That is why NATO should make it clear to him to stop bombing Ukraine or they will start bombing these nice malls in Moscow, and his bunkers in the Ural and Altai mountains.

They should talk from the position of power not weakness.  This is the only language Putin understands.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Tash on March 07, 2022, 08:35:00 AM
Russia could not care if they can buy a BMW or Gucci, they just get some junk form China or India.
Europe importing 40% of Gas, 50% of oil, weath... from Russia. Without the import prices for commodities will be sky high, hyperinflataion, rock bottom property prices chaos and suffering. The corrupt politicians know full well what they do, nobody is that stupit and cuts of his essentials.
Politicians are nothing but human dirt, a  cult (https://flote.app/post/035f8e30-e85a-43aa-85da-8296100b7ffd).


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: cmg777 on March 07, 2022, 10:52:19 AM
As an American I can give two shits about this war in the Ukraine.

So in short it is these people that have caused war/woe onto me and the American people. The corporate/governmental elite and their paid cronies.
Looks like you are a bit off here, just because you are not affected?
Putin is a rude killer and he's responsible for killing civilians: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-irpin-civilian-death.html

You seem to behave like a spoonfed child.  :D

And you seem to be spoonfed by our mainstream media overlords by your post. Hope they tell you to buy/sell crypto at the wrong time cuz I'm always buying/selling :). Sure I'm mildly affected by the further gas prices and actually more so by the food they are producing but the former was because our moronic senile president refuses to increase production domestically and would rather deal with his Venezuelan counterpart to get more oil/gas. I'll give you this if Putin invades a country outside of Ukraine then I might be an MSM cheerleader against him and his regime.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 07, 2022, 08:41:47 PM
You obviously do not understand what is legally a war, and what is worse, you have not bothered to look for any conventional definition of act of war. A word of advice, sometimes using Google is fine.

War -
Quote
a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country.

Acts of war examples:
Quote
In 1974, General Assembly Resolution 3314 defined and gave some examples of aggression. Article 3 gave, as examples, invasion or attack by armed forces of a state, military occupation, bombardment against the territory of another state, blockade of ports or coasts, action of a state in allowing its territory to be used for preparing an act of aggression against a third state, and the sending of armed bands, groups, irregulars, or mercenaries to carry out acts of armed force against another state...
The "legal" term of "war" is meaningless. If the country on the receiving end of sanctions decides that the sanctions make an escalation necessary, they will escalate.

If Putin decides to respond to sanctions by bombing the US, there is nothing stopping him from doing so, except the consequences of said bombings to Russia. Said consequences would include retaliation on the part of the US and its allies. If Russia were to win such a conflict, there would be no mechanism in place to punish Russia for the escalation.

It is unlikely that Russia would win a war against the US, so Putin is unlikely to escalate against NATO. Putin is talking tough because he is hoping that NATO countries do not want to go to war, and will be willing to back down from sanctions under the threat of war.

On that, sure Putin can decide to suicide bomb US or NATO, but the matter here is that he is considering sanctions as an act of war, and they are not.

Your argument makes me understand why do you side with Putin: You do not understand the difference between brute force and reason. Neither does Putin and that is why he could not conceive that Ukrainians would resist, Europe would go medieval on sanctions on his ass nor EU countries supplying weapons within days - ultimately, this could be the last lessons he learns.

Well, that and also not to send troops without knowing where the fuck are they going.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 08, 2022, 07:00:23 PM
That is why NATO should make it clear to him to stop bombing Ukraine or they will start bombing these nice malls in Moscow, and his bunkers in the Ural and Altai mountains.

They should talk from the position of power not weakness.  This is the only language Putin understands.

We will see if the sanctions work. They are clearly impacting the Russian economy, and more importantly, the banking system in Russia. Without a stable banking system, Putin may have difficulty procuring additional weapons, munitions, and supplies from within his own country. If the west were to impose a Russian Oil embargo and/or decide to stop buying Russian oil/gas, Russia would lose its ability to continue to finance the war.

Putin is clearly trying to talk the West out of continuing to impose sanctions.

Your argument makes me understand why do you side with Putin:
That is a ridiculous assertion.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 08, 2022, 07:25:41 PM

Putin is clearly trying to talk the West out of continuing to impose sanctions.


Maybe he should try to withdraw his troops from Ukraine? Then the sanctions will cease to apply.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 08, 2022, 07:25:57 PM
..

Your argument makes me understand why do you side with Putin:
That is a ridiculous assertion.

That's a void statement.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: G.Seed on March 08, 2022, 07:52:37 PM
Quote
Your argument makes me understand why do you side with Putin: You do not understand the difference between brute force and reason.

USA nuclear attack against civilians in Hiroshima, Nagasaki ?
What about agent orange usage in Vietnam ?
Was it brute force or reason ?
And when USA lied about mass destruction weapon in Iraq and they used depleted uranium on them ?
Was it brute force or reason ?
And ISRAEL, your fucking dear ISRAEL, brute force or reason ?

Where are the economic sanctions against USA, you fucking hypocrites ?


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: TheNineClub on March 08, 2022, 08:08:54 PM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.

Yes, to us reasonable people, if you put it as much as objectively possible, that is definitely not a declaration of war. However, when you try to justify your own decisions you tend to go to the lowest possible threshold to legitimize your actions. In Putin's eyes (maybe fake but at least the rhetoric is like that) this is not aggression but a special military operation where they are not at fault and therefore there's no need for the west sanctions. It's complete crap, but that's the idea behind it.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Raymond Gary on March 08, 2022, 09:11:00 PM
Economic sanctions cannot be seen as war in my view , hence it a warning and a deplomatic way to draw the attention and weaken the strength of those engaged in a war economically and to see if they could change there mindset


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 09, 2022, 10:40:15 AM
Quote
Your argument makes me understand why do you side with Putin: You do not understand the difference between brute force and reason.

USA nuclear attack against civilians in Hiroshima, Nagasaki ?
What about agent orange usage in Vietnam ?
Was it brute force or reason ?
And when USA lied about mass destruction weapon in Iraq and they used depleted uranium on them ?
Was it brute force or reason ?
And ISRAEL, your fucking dear ISRAEL, brute force or reason ?

Where are the economic sanctions against USA, you fucking hypocrites ?

In my view, H & N - the countries had been at war for years. The point was to avoid even more dead, so there is a (twisted) reason to it. The fact that the bombs were used on civilian targets would today be considered a war crime and it is not the only one. If you read about other attacks on the second world war, the incendiaries dropped in Hamburg  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Hamburg_in_World_War_II) did not receive as much attention, yet they caused a similar number of victims.

Agent Orange in Vietnam - Force. A war crime.

USA lying on WMD - neither, it was just another lie to justify grabbing oil. All wars require a moral "cover up" or else people would not be willing to fight. Is the same with most extremist organisations, they have to convince others to die for them promising stuff or infuriating them. The war itself was brute force and based merely on commercial considerations.

Please notice that only UK, Spain and Portugal supported USA war in Irak - it was an illegal war.

Israel expansion is force as well. I am afraid that the reason does not assist any of the sides (IMHO).

Quote
Where are the economic sanctions against USA, you fucking hypocrites ?

USA is not threating Europe. Europe is not committing acts of war against Putin's Russia. To decide that sanctions are acts of war is not reason, just a cynic justification similar to "they have WMD".





Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Tash on March 09, 2022, 12:35:57 PM

Joe the true Politician
https://twitter.com/Chardwa13/status/1501351989573160960


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: ololajulo on March 09, 2022, 12:54:01 PM
$470 billions of Russia reserve had been freezed and banned other countries' Financial system from transacting with Russian banks. They also target Russian billionaires finance outside the country. This restrictions will cripple the economic situation and is one of the highest level of economic sanctions any country can ever have. More so, this restrictions will not be removed soon even if the war stops. They are also war strategies maybe not war itself, such economic constraint will starve war funding and give the other country leverage to ride on.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 09, 2022, 01:24:29 PM
$470 billions of Russia reserve had been freezed and banned other countries' Financial system from transacting with Russian banks. They also target Russian billionaires finance outside the country. This restrictions will cripple the economic situation and is one of the highest level of economic sanctions any country can ever have. More so, this restrictions will not be removed soon even if the war stops. They are also war strategies maybe not war itself, such economic constraint will starve war funding and give the other country leverage to ride on.

We will pray for it. Maybe this restrictions finaly will force them to open their eyes and withdraw their troops from our Ukraine.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 09, 2022, 04:06:15 PM

Putin is clearly trying to talk the West out of continuing to impose sanctions.


Maybe he should try to withdraw his troops from Ukraine? Then the sanctions will cease to apply.
Yea, you are probably right. Most of the sanctions will likely be removed if Putin were to withdraw from Ukraine. Although damage has already been done and some will seek to not trade with Russia after the war.

Putin is clearly trying to intimidate the west into removing the sanctions without ending the war. I would conclude that this means the sanctions are likely working, and Putin is afraid of the oligarks in his country.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 22, 2022, 02:30:33 AM
You obviously do not understand what is legally a war..
Legally, strictly speaking, the last war was declared by Russia to Japan in 1945 (and by the way, it has not yet been completed, since a peace treaty has not been signed). All other armed conflicts on the planet after that did not have and do not have the status of war.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: KingScorpio on March 22, 2022, 02:47:26 AM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.



but they are, there was no just judgment over ukraine's Donbass Genocide. the west treats nonwestern powers always like villains no matter what.

if putin would have been a jew perhaps the western media would listen when he reminded on donbass violence for 8 years, now it escalated to a full fledged war in an attempt to end the violence


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 23, 2022, 08:46:30 AM

Joe the true Politician
https://twitter.com/Chardwa13/status/1501351989573160960
And here's something really special on Biden's instagram (https://www.instagram.com/p/CbVLGd6r_Ac/) - his congratulations to the people of Iran on the new year (Nowruz) lol. It looks a little ridiculous, but what can you do just to annoy the Russians. Remind me which one of them is a professional comedian - Zelensky or Biden? Biden's jokes seem definitely funnier to me lately. ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Mometaskers on March 23, 2022, 03:46:22 PM
Autocrats don't give a fuck and will retaliate if they can at any perceived transgressions, take for example many developing countries' late travel ban against China coz they don't want to hurt Wi Ni Po's feelings. I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.

Joe the true Politician
https://twitter.com/Chardwa13/status/1501351989573160960
And here's something really special on Biden's instagram (https://www.instagram.com/p/CbVLGd6r_Ac/) - his congratulations to the people of Iran on the new year (Nowruz) lol. It looks a little ridiculous, but what can you do just to annoy the Russians. Remind me which one of them is a professional comedian - Zelensky or Biden? Biden's jokes seem definitely funnier to me lately. ;D

I found him funny in the way I find fart jokes funny. You don't want to laugh but it just comes out.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 23, 2022, 04:06:16 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 23, 2022, 10:14:10 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

True. And it also applies to existing contracts that actually estate the payment in USD or Euro. The obvious target is Germany.

As strategy to support the "rubble", mean the ruble is fine. The only slight little problem is that it completely contravenes the international law - and yes, I know that Putin does not care much about it and thinks he is the law and all that, but as silly as it may seem, it does create very serious concerns on his Russia as a trading partner, as contracts from now on are wet paper (or wet digitally signed PDFs).

That is a massive increase of risk to any trade conducted with his Russia, which usually mean that prices of products coming from Russia will be paid at a discount and investments are likely to carry a massive risk premium.

Do not be fooled, there is a price to pay for this and it is hefty and long lasting.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 04:43:44 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

True. And it also applies to existing contracts that actually estate the payment in USD or Euro. The obvious target is Germany.

As strategy to support the "rubble", mean the ruble is fine. The only slight little problem is that it completely contravenes the international law - and yes, I know that Putin does not care much about it and thinks he is the law and all that, but as silly as it may seem, it does create very serious concerns on his Russia as a trading partner, as contracts from now on are wet paper (or wet digitally signed PDFs).

That is a massive increase of risk to any trade conducted with his Russia, which usually mean that prices of products coming from Russia will be paid at a discount and investments are likely to carry a massive risk premium.

Do not be fooled, there is a price to pay for this and it is hefty and long lasting.
It is interesting that you remembered international law now, and not a month ago, when the currency accounts of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros were frozen, as well as after the parade of economic sanctions and the withdrawal of many companies from Russia with the refusal of their obligations. There is no more international law. And yes - this is primarily a blow to Germany, as the locomotive of the European Union. Now Germany will support the Russian ruble, or plunge into medieval darkness without heat and light. Perhaps the decision of the UK to leave the European Union was wise, because the fate of the European Union is very vague, it is likely to face an inglorious collapse into small European states - tolerant of refugees and decarbonized. Europe will get what it wanted and what it deserved.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 24, 2022, 04:57:44 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

True. And it also applies to existing contracts that actually estate the payment in USD or Euro. The obvious target is Germany.

As strategy to support the "rubble", mean the ruble is fine. The only slight little problem is that it completely contravenes the international law - and yes, I know that Putin does not care much about it and thinks he is the law and all that, but as silly as it may seem, it does create very serious concerns on his Russia as a trading partner, as contracts from now on are wet paper (or wet digitally signed PDFs).

That is a massive increase of risk to any trade conducted with his Russia, which usually mean that prices of products coming from Russia will be paid at a discount and investments are likely to carry a massive risk premium.

Do not be fooled, there is a price to pay for this and it is hefty and long lasting.
It is interesting that you remembered international law now, and not a month ago, when the currency accounts of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros were frozen, as well as after the parade of economic sanctions and the withdrawal of many companies from Russia with the refusal of their obligations. There is no more international law. And yes - this is primarily a blow to Germany, as the locomotive of the European Union. Now Germany will support the Russian ruble, or plunge into medieval darkness without heat and light. Perhaps the decision of the UK to leave the European Union was wise, because the fate of the European Union is very vague, it is likely to face an inglorious collapse into small European states - tolerant of refugees, homosexuals and decarbonized. Europe will get what it wanted and what it deserved.

West should just stop ALL business with Russia, confiscate assets of all Russian citizens, strip them of any western citizenships, expel them back to Russia, and close its borders to Russian citizens.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: BambiDx on March 24, 2022, 06:50:46 AM
Putin is trying to make economic sanctions an equivalent to a declaration of war. Why this is not true:

- An economic sanction does not kill people (not directly nor quickly).
- Economic sanctions mean simply that other countries do not want to trade with you. That is not fighting, is simply a effect of failing to have a successful relation with the international community.
- Economic sanctions are reversible. It is Putin's hand to take the steps to come back into the international community.




The US uses economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy. While typically touted as a better alternative to war, they severely affect community health and well-being. They are, in fact, just another name for warfare.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 07:43:53 AM
West should just stop ALL business with Russia
You are calling the West to economic suicide. The big economy of the West really means that the West has a lot of debt and well developed derivatives. But futures and options are not edible. The strength of the dollar and the euro is based on trust in them, which is now undermined by the freezing of funds from the Central Bank of Russia, and once undermined trust is very difficult to return back. Germany alone needs more LPG tankers to replace Russian gas than there are anywhere in the world. Once again, if all the tankers in the world drop their business and take gas to Germany, this will not be enough. Try to turn on the brain before demanding the impossible from the West.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Tash on March 24, 2022, 08:54:44 AM

World once again move back to the crazy old days.
Quote
I would like to point out that the supply situation for liquid fuels makes all owners of commercial vehicles in their own interest the conversion to the operation with wood generator gas as a duty.
Anyone who does not convert his vehicle can not expect to continue to receive petrol or diesel fuel in the foreseeable future.
Reichsminister Albert Speer, 22.10.1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXaoQ0k9Jlg
Half hour start-up time takes all the stress out of the rush hour. With extra bag of supply and refulling stops more then 100km reach.
Should be made compulsory for idiot politicians for daily work drive.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 09:28:56 AM

World once again move back to the crazy old days.
Quote
I would like to point out that the supply situation for liquid fuels makes all owners of commercial vehicles in their own interest the conversion to the operation with wood generator gas as a duty.
Anyone who does not convert his vehicle can not expect to continue to receive petrol or diesel fuel in the foreseeable future.
Reichsminister Albert Speer, 22.10.1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXaoQ0k9Jlg
Half hour start-up time takes all the stress out of the rush hour. With extra bag of supply and refulling stops more then 100km reach.
Should be made compulsory for idiot politicians for daily work drive.
Elon Musk recently launched a factory in Germany and even danced at the opening. To hell with gasoline, progressive Europe will soon drive only electric cars! And electricity for them will be generated by wind turbines. The main thing is that the wind does not blow from the east, from the territory of backward Russia. And then scientists will invent household teleporters and the problem of movement will be solved in a radical way. Just to live until brighter days!  ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 24, 2022, 11:15:51 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

Putin could easily force Gazprom to sell their euros at any rate he wants. The only reason to try to force e.g. Germany to do it is to basically renege on the contract - I bet the rate he wants will be something ludicrous and not the current market rate. Essentially he wants more euros, not rubles.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 12:31:33 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

Putin could easily force Gazprom to sell their euros at any rate he wants. The only reason to try to force e.g. Germany to do it is to basically renege on the contract - I bet the rate he wants will be something ludicrous and not the current market rate. Essentially he wants more euros, not rubles.

Well, yes, I think Putin has enough rubles. But there is a nuance, now Germany, Austria, Japan and all other unfriendly countries that buy gas from Russia will want rubles. And in order to continue buying Russian gas, they will have to learn how to get around their own sanctions, which they have so generously imposed on Russia. And they will have to support the Russian economy, which they have already declared "torn to shreds."

Walked now to the store - the shelves are full of products, including sugar. I didn’t buy it, I still have more than enough stocks from the pandemic. Prices for office paper are also artificially inflated, a pack of A3 paper is cheaper than a pack of A4 paper, although it is enough to cut an A3 pack in half at the nearest printing house and there will be two A4 packs. Maybe this is a good reason to reduce the bureaucracy in Russia and introduce electronic document management not together with paper, but instead.

Russia has been living under sanctions for a hundred years, this will not scare us. We are Russians - God is with us.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 24, 2022, 01:06:44 PM
Well, yes, I think Putin has enough rubles. But there is a nuance, now Germany, Austria, Japan and all other unfriendly countries that buy gas from Russia will want rubles. And in order to continue buying Russian gas, they will have to learn how to get around their own sanctions, which they have so generously imposed on Russia. And they will have to support the Russian economy, which they have already declared "torn to shreds."

No matter how you polish the turd, Putin wants more euros. There rest of it is status quo, gas/oil exports for the most part haven't been sanctioned and there is no additional support for the Russian economy. On the contrary, this ruble nonsense will make even more loyal gal/oil buyers rethink dealing with Russia.

it is enough to cut an A3 pack in half at the nearest printing house and there will be two A4 packs.

And then cut it further and glue it together to make cash register tape, etc. What could possibly go wrong.

Russia has been living under sanctions for a hundred years, this will not scare us. We are Russians - God is with us.

That's one thing Russia will never run out of - imaginary murderous sky fairies.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 01:24:40 PM
No matter how you polish the turd, Putin wants more euros.
You think irrationally, what is the point of him wanting the euro if they are under sanctions? What to do with them - look at the frozen numbers on the screen? The European Union is now in an extremely difficult life situation for anyone in their right mind to want the euro. Uncontrolled price increases, strikes, an influx of refugees and strong internal divisions. My forecast for the European Union is that it will collapse in one or two years, and in a month one euro will be cheaper than one US dollar.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 24, 2022, 03:27:42 PM
Well, yes, I think Putin has enough rubles.

You think irrationally, what is the point of him wanting the euro if they are under sanctions?

Which is it then?

What to do with them

I don't know, ask Vlad and tell us.

The fact is, Putin's Russia will be selling rubles to Germany to pay for gas, so euros will end up in Putin's pocket, just as it's happening now.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Zlantann on March 24, 2022, 04:11:21 PM
Sanctions will never deter Putin, this war has been planned for years. Russia for now is indispensable and Putin understands this fact. It would take years for the world to learn how to survive without Russia. Ukraine should know that NATO is powerless, they are avoiding direct military conflict with Russia and their hands are tied economically. Ukraine and Russia have learnt their lessons: Ukraine now know that Russia is untouchable and Russia understands now that Ukraine is not a military walkover. The solution now is compromise, but Zelensky should know that Ukraine must make the greater sacrifice.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 04:18:22 PM
The fact is, Putin's Russia will be selling rubles to Germany to pay for gas, so euros will end up in Putin's pocket, just as it's happening now.
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 24, 2022, 04:31:00 PM
The fact is, Putin's Russia will be selling rubles to Germany to pay for gas, so euros will end up in Putin's pocket, just as it's happening now.
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Don't threaten if you can't deliver - that's a sign of weakness. Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

LOL. You are clueless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSlyYCa05aM


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 04:44:11 PM
LOL. You are clueless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSlyYCa05aM
Glad you're having fun. For many years the United States inspired you with the idea that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the strongest army in Europe, and for three whole months of winter you were preparing for the invasion of Russia. And when it happened, you weren't ready. And now Zelensky is running around with a burnt bottom and begging everyone in a row for more planes and tanks, and in general at least something, and "the strongest army in Europe" is fragmented, disoriented, deprived of air support and has not carried out a single successful counter- offensive. It's a shame.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 24, 2022, 05:00:05 PM
LOL. You are clueless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSlyYCa05aM
Glad you're having fun. For many years the United States inspired you with the idea that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the strongest army in Europe, and for three whole months of winter you were preparing for the invasion of Russia. And when it happened, you weren't ready. And now Zelensky is running around with a burnt bottom and begging everyone in a row for more planes and tanks, and in general at least something, and "the strongest army in Europe" is fragmented, disoriented, deprived of air support and has not carried out a single successful counter- offensive. It's a shame.

LOL. Just use google to verify what your propaganda is feeding you.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php

At the rate Ukrainians are destroying Russia's equipment and soldiers, in a few months, they will wipe out 50% of their active army.
And Russia will have to declare martial law and introduce a general draft.

Ukrainians can only stay in this fight as long as NATO/US will continue to supply them with weapons, planes, tanks, ammunition, etc.

The issue Russia has is that if this continues few more months, they will have to deal with an economic collapse at home.
So they might have to withdraw as they physically might not be able to continue.

I bet NATO chose this route because they want to destroy Russia militarily and economically without stepping a foot on the Russian territory.

Do I agree with it? Hell no, I think it is inhumane that they are allowing Russians to control Ukrainian air space and bomb them indiscriminately.

NATO should disable Russian missiles sites, disable their air defense systems, destroy the Black Sea fleet, destroy the Kerch bridge, and bomb their bases in Crimea. All in a day or two. That is the correct course of action.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 24, 2022, 07:13:08 PM
Just use google to verify what your propaganda is feeding you.
You are a very funny conversationalist, but it's time for me to sleep in the hayloft. Tomorrow morning I will get up again at sunrise, eat a baby for breakfast and drink vodka, then I will pull one European out of the cellar to feed my tame bear, then I will put on ceremonial bast shoes and an earflap with a red star, put firewood into the electric generator, turn on my analog lamp computer and I will again inspire everyone with horror on the Internet all day, telling propaganda. It's hard work, but after victory I was promised two sacks of potatoes, four cases of vodka and a dozen captured homosexual Europeans, my bear loves them very much for their tender meat.  ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 24, 2022, 08:07:29 PM
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

Translation: Putin is running out of euros and he needs more euros so he's trying to renegotiate the gas contracts.

That's all there is to it. He can't pay anyone outside of Russia (e.g. China) in rubles. He needs real currency. He's thoroughly fucked either way but if he can extort a few extra euros this way, he might be able to make it to May 9 and have a few tanks remaining for his last parade in the Red Square.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 24, 2022, 10:06:13 PM
Just use google to verify what your propaganda is feeding you.
You are a very funny conversationalist, but it's time for me to sleep in the hayloft. Tomorrow morning I will get up again at sunrise, eat a baby for breakfast and drink vodka, then I will pull one European out of the cellar to feed my tame bear, then I will put on ceremonial bast shoes and an earflap with a red star, put firewood into the electric generator, turn on my analog lamp computer and I will again inspire everyone with horror on the Internet all day, telling propaganda. It's hard work, but after victory I was promised two sacks of potatoes, four cases of vodka and a dozen captured homosexual Europeans, my bear loves them very much for their tender meat.  ;D

I am sure you will do so. But I am sure you will not be able to buy an iPhone. You may get a PutinPhone 11. It comes with a preloaded white flag and a GPS that is rigged to tell you that you are always in Russia.

Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

Translation: Putin is running out of euros and he needs more euros so he's trying to renegotiate the gas contracts.

That's all there is to it. He can't pay anyone outside of Russia (e.g. China) in rubles. He needs real currency. He's thoroughly fucked either way but if he can extort a few extra euros this way, he might be able to make it to May 9 and have a few tanks remaining for his last parade in the Red Square.


Pfff, it is so clear that Putin needs to support his currency... and to be honest that is great news, it means that sanctions and economic measures are sinking the ruble and that is something the media cannot hide from the Russian people... things cost what they cost.


...

I bet NATO chose this route because they want to destroy Russia militarily and economically without stepping a foot on the Russian territory.

Do I agree with it? Hell no, I think it is inhumane that they are allowing Russians to control Ukrainian air space and bomb them indiscriminately.

NATO should disable Russian missiles sites, disable their air defense systems, destroy the Black Sea fleet, destroy the Kerch bridge, and bomb their bases in Crimea. All in a day or two. That is the correct course of action.

NATO is officially neutral in this conflict. They can sell weapons to whoever they choose and at the price they choose as per the rules of war and the choice is to supply Ukraine as much as possible.

While it may look like a great idea to escalate and involve more countries directly in the war, the options you are proposing lead to escalation and the risk of a nuclear response. Such a response may range from a limited nuclear war to a full scale humanity self-destruction.

Do you really want to get your country nuked? Because it will be where the first strike would happen and it is a game with no winner.



Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 25, 2022, 03:25:34 AM
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

Translation: Putin is running out of euros and he needs more euros so he's trying to renegotiate the gas contracts.

That's all there is to it. He can't pay anyone outside of Russia (e.g. China) in rubles. He needs real currency. He's thoroughly fucked either way but if he can extort a few extra euros this way, he might be able to make it to May 9 and have a few tanks remaining for his last parade in the Red Square.
Russia ran out of euros in gold and foreign exchange reserves a month ago, when one of the very first sanctions imposed blocked the funds of the Central Bank in dollars and euros. Translation - The West stole Russian euros.

China has not joined the Western sanctions, so the Central Bank's yuan is fine, don't worry about it. You did not understand what actually happened after the announcement of "rubles for gas". Now the ruble is the real currency, backed by (for starters) gas. Unlike the dollar and the euro with uncontrolled emission, which are essentially empty shells. It is very funny to see how the countries on the unfriendly list, which cannot refuse Russian gas here and now, will go through five stages of accepting the inevitable:
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Gas for rubles


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 25, 2022, 03:46:50 AM
Russia does not need euros, but the freedom to dispose of them, to buy everything that Russia needs, even if sanctions are imposed on it. One phrase of Putin's "gas for rubles" made 6,000 Western sanctions a senseless hysterical dummy. It is foolish to threaten Russia when she holds you by the balls - Europe will quickly learn this lesson.

Russia could itself overcome the sanctions through spacers and intermediaries, it has enough loyal partners in the world and enough experience. But then the Russians would have to pay overheads and commissions. Now the overhead costs of overcoming their own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the West. This is an example of political judo, which Putin is very good at.

Translation: Putin is running out of euros and he needs more euros so he's trying to renegotiate the gas contracts.

That's all there is to it. He can't pay anyone outside of Russia (e.g. China) in rubles. He needs real currency. He's thoroughly fucked either way but if he can extort a few extra euros this way, he might be able to make it to May 9 and have a few tanks remaining for his last parade in the Red Square.
Russia ran out of euros in gold and foreign exchange reserves a month ago, when one of the very first sanctions imposed blocked the funds of the Central Bank in dollars and euros. Translation - The West stole Russian euros.

China has not joined the Western sanctions, so the Central Bank's yuan is fine, don't worry about it. You did not understand what actually happened after the announcement of "rubles for gas". Now the ruble is the real currency, backed by (for starters) gas. Unlike the dollar and the euro with uncontrolled emission, which are essentially empty shells. It is very funny to see how the countries on the unfriendly list, which cannot refuse Russian gas here and now, will go through five stages of accepting the inevitable:
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Gas for rubles

Putin is still in denial that he is in no position to be making demands.

His knew-jerk reaction to ask for gas/oil payment in rubles will just speed up the decoupling of western economies from Russia.

Warp speed my friend.

I think the Soviet Union economy in Russia will be recreated faster than anyone could have predicted.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 25, 2022, 04:00:02 AM
Putin is still in denial that he is in no position to be making demands.
Oh no, Putin is now in exactly the position where he can demand anything, unlike Zelensky. Gaddafi was killed for less. Previously, the United States solved such problems simply - they drove an aircraft carrier and started bombing, if only the appearance of an aircraft carrier was not enough. Where are the American aircraft carriers now? They are afraid to get closer than a thousand kilometers, because otherwise the hypersonic Dagger will fly in and turn it into a pile of flaming debris.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: blackened515 on March 25, 2022, 05:58:26 AM
That is why NATO should make it clear to him to stop bombing Ukraine or they will start bombing these nice malls in Moscow, and his bunkers in the Ural and Altai mountains.

They should talk from the position of power not weakness.  This is the only language Putin understands.

Do you think that is probably the best decision to take?
Don't you think NATO getting directly involved in the crises will worsen the situation? It seems Putin don't actually care about the sanctions been placed on his country. Also, remember that Ukraine is not a member of NATO yet, so I don't think NATO will for any reason send troops to support them. However, Putin is doing everything to ensure Ukraine doesn't join NATO. So sad that Ukraine keep losing it Citizens in the war.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 25, 2022, 06:08:51 AM
It seems Putin don't actually care about the sanctions been placed on his country.
This is not so if Putin really did not care about the sanctions of the West - he would simply ignore them, or brush them off like an annoying fly. Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight). But the West did not seem to take into account that Russia would have the audacity to impose counter-sanctions of a similar strength. And if Russia withstood the blow of the West with dignity, then whether the West will withstand the blow of Russia is a very big question. Russia has a very simple and strong economy with a steady budget surplus and a positive foreign trade balance. The Western economy is now like a huge bubble, inflated during the pandemic by quantitative easing programs to incredible proportions. And it looks like Putin has pierced this bubble with the sharp needle of his decision to sell gas for rubles.

I usually do not give free investment advice, but today I will make an exception. Hyperinflation is coming, buy bitcoin.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 25, 2022, 12:43:23 PM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).

This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukrainian-girl-who-lost-arm-26477022 (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukrainian-girl-who-lost-arm-26477022)

"Sasha, nine, said she hoped the Kremlin troops who shot her in the arm and slaughtered her dad in a flurry of machine gun bullets "didn't mean to hurt her"

https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article26477026.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200d/2_Screenshot-2022-03-15-at-175916.jpg


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 25, 2022, 01:03:01 PM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).
This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain
It is unfortunate that Russia's operation is fraught with humanitarian risk for the civilian population, and it is doubly unfortunate when children suffer from the inability of diplomats and politicians to agree. For many years, Russia, together with Germany and France, have been making efforts to implement the Minsk agreements to overcome the humanitarian crisis in the Donbass, where tens and hundreds of children and thousands of civilians have died in eight years of shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine stubbornly sabotaged the Minsk agreements and Russia decided to use force in response to the request of the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, which Russia recognized as independent states in late February. For eight years, Ukraine has been committing genocide against its own people, and Russia has decided to stop this by demilitarizing Ukraine. When the operation is over, Russia will help and actively participate in the restoration of everything destroyed. Russian sappers have already begun clearing minefields in demilitarized territories so as not to miss the sowing campaign and not aggravate the threat of famine, primarily in Africa, which depends on food supplies from this region.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Mometaskers on March 25, 2022, 03:02:37 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

Yeah just saw that. I suppose this will dissuade some of their gas customers from joining the NATO sanctions.

That plus KSA selling oil to China for Yuans, guess the petrodollar is really coming to a close.

I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.

Putin could easily force Gazprom to sell their euros at any rate he wants. The only reason to try to force e.g. Germany to do it is to basically renege on the contract - I bet the rate he wants will be something ludicrous and not the current market rate. Essentially he wants more euros, not rubles.

Yeah I suppose he does need money actually coming in.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 25, 2022, 04:21:33 PM
Yeah I suppose he does need money actually coming in.
Today the Central Bank of Russia introduced (https://cbr.ru/faq/w_fin_sector/#a_t905) its counter-sanction. Earlier, the authorities, in response to Western sanctions, had already banned the sale of securities by foreign investors and the withdrawal of funds from the Russian financial system. “In addition, payments on the corporate debt of Russian companies and government debt to debt holders from countries that support sanctions against Russia will only take place with the permission of the government commission. That is, in response to the freezing of part of Russian reserves, Russia also introduced restrictions on the movement of funds, which could be transferred to unfriendly countries for a comparable amount," he Bank of Russia points out.

That is, in response to any attempts by the West to withdraw money from Russia in the amount of up to $ 300 billion, instead of money, investors will be issued promissory notes with instructions to pay them from the funds of the Central Bank of Russia frozen by sanctions. The problem with the West is that it has never fully understood the Russian mentality. You can't steal $300 billion without consequences. ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: TheCoinGrabber on March 25, 2022, 05:01:30 PM
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil. Those that are buying those fuel from them would be forced to pay in ruble if they hop into the sanction bandwagon.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 26, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.
What kind of nonsense is this? There is no reason why Putin would want more Rubles? The Ruble is worthless and Putin has the ability to print an unlimited supply of Rubles.
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil.
Putin cannot actually follow through on threats to stop selling oil and gas. This is how Putin is financing the war. If Putin stops selling Russian energy to the West, he will quickly run out of money.

Putin's best bet is to threaten to withhold Russian energy from Europe to coerce them into lifting other sanctions, and into stopping supporting Ukraine militarily.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 26, 2022, 03:08:53 PM
That is, in response to any attempts by the West to withdraw money from Russia in the amount of up to $ 300 billion, instead of money, investors will be issued promissory notes with instructions to pay them from the funds of the Central Bank of Russia frozen by sanctions. The problem with the West is that it has never fully understood the Russian mentality. You can't steal $300 billion without consequences. ;D

Russia was already expected to default on it's debt as soon as next month. The desperate attempt to cover it up with "promissory notes" is quite comical.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 26, 2022, 03:38:02 PM
That is, in response to any attempts by the West to withdraw money from Russia in the amount of up to $ 300 billion, instead of money, investors will be issued promissory notes with instructions to pay them from the funds of the Central Bank of Russia frozen by sanctions. The problem with the West is that it has never fully understood the Russian mentality. You can't steal $300 billion without consequences. ;D

Russia was already expected to default on it's debt as soon as next month. The desperate attempt to cover it up with "promissory notes" is quite comical.
Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: PrimeNumber7 on March 26, 2022, 03:45:58 PM
That is, in response to any attempts by the West to withdraw money from Russia in the amount of up to $ 300 billion, instead of money, investors will be issued promissory notes with instructions to pay them from the funds of the Central Bank of Russia frozen by sanctions. The problem with the West is that it has never fully understood the Russian mentality. You can't steal $300 billion without consequences. ;D

Russia was already expected to default on it's debt as soon as next month. The desperate attempt to cover it up with "promissory notes" is quite comical.
Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.
Putin does not have any voters. He is a dictator.

Putin prevented debts from being paid to the west in order to avoid running out of money that he has access to.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 26, 2022, 06:01:22 PM
Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 26, 2022, 10:12:08 PM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).
This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain
It is unfortunate that Russia's operation is fraught with humanitarian risk for the civilian population, and it is doubly unfortunate when children suffer from the inability of diplomats and politicians to agree.

...

I just can't believe that you just tried to white-wash the killing of children.

As it is "unfortunate" that many young Russian soldiers have to die in vain for the delusions of a septuagenarian. As it is "unfortunate" that so many Russians - many not supporting Putin - will have hardship and poverty when no decent company would want to be in Russia nor touch their exports.

But most of all, I encourage you, so supportive of the war, to go there yourself. I am sure that you will be a fierce combatant in the name of Putin and will not care about the "unfortunate risks" that you may encounter along the way. You see, it is quite different from throwing shit-talk behind a keyboard where the only risk is to twist your fingers or, worst case, starting to really believe your own bullshit.

Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.

It is starting to look quite pathetic. It must be difficult to be in the propaganda directorate under Putin... perhaps we should ask a few people around this thread how things are going in the company.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 26, 2022, 10:19:26 PM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).
This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain
It is unfortunate that Russia's operation is fraught with humanitarian risk for the civilian population, and it is doubly unfortunate when children suffer from the inability of diplomats and politicians to agree.

...

I just can't believe that you just tried to white-wash the killing of children.

As it is "unfortunate" that some many young Russian soldiers have to die in vain for the delusions of a septuagenarian. As it is "unfortunate" that so many Russians - many not supporting Putin - will have hardship and poverty when no decent company would want to be in Russia nor touch their exports.

But most of all, I encourage you, so supportive of the war, to go there yourself. I am sure that you will be a fierce combatant in the name of Putin and will not care about the "unfortunate risks" that you may encounter along the way.


I have already offered this putin’s fan to do this. But he prefers to sit in his nice chair, surrounded by security and just look to how his “great” army provides “denazification” of Ukrainian maternity houses, children’s hospitals and civil buildings.




Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 27, 2022, 03:43:49 AM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).
This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain
It is unfortunate that Russia's operation is fraught with humanitarian risk for the civilian population, and it is doubly unfortunate when children suffer from the inability of diplomats and politicians to agree.

...

I just can't believe that you just tried to white-wash the killing of children.

As it is "unfortunate" that many young Russian soldiers have to die in vain for the delusions of a septuagenarian. As it is "unfortunate" that so many Russians - many not supporting Putin - will have hardship and poverty when no decent company would want to be in Russia nor touch their exports.

But most of all, I encourage you, so supportive of the war, to go there yourself. I am sure that you will be a fierce combatant in the name of Putin and will not care about the "unfortunate risks" that you may encounter along the way. You see, it is quite different from throwing shit-talk behind a keyboard where the only risk is to twist your fingers or, worst case, starting to really believe your own bullshit.
Please don't stoop to cheap demagogic tricks while talking to me, thank you. The US has justified the death of 500,000 children in Iraq, even though it never found the weapons of mass destruction it claimed to have as a pretext for an invasion. The United States is also responsible for what is happening now in Ukraine. It was they who organized the Maidan in Kyiv, cultivated nationalist and anti-Russian sentiments for years, overthrew the legitimate president, supplied and continue to supply weapons to Ukraine. Inciting instability in the region is beneficial for the United States - it weakens Russia and destroys a competitor in the form of the European Union, and also alleviates its own economic crisis by pushing investors to flee to the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which are otherwise unattractive due to negative yields amid inflation. Putin told Biden when they met in December 2021 "the red line is here, don't cross it." Biden ignored Putin because it benefits him.

There are 24 ways to lure a sleeping bear out of its lair, but there is no way to bring it back.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: cabron on March 27, 2022, 04:12:22 AM

It's a war between 2 dictators of Ukraine and Russia but in reality, it's US vs Russia. We all know the story of this which could have been avoided if the US just didn't go to Ukraine making Zelenskyy a pawn. Pity the guy which he could have been hailed great if he were a true dictator who stands his own ground without someone dictating him but seem still a lapdog of Biden.

I think it's just how the council sees it. Putin is also sanctioning countries that are not friendly to Russia to which they have to use Ruble to buy gas. That's one kind of sanction that also pumped the ruble price.

If you are from US side and will be sanctioned by China to close down the manufacturing companies of the US like Apple and etc, they could actually do that. Will that be considered a declaration of war?



Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 27, 2022, 04:37:09 AM
It's a war between 2 dictators

LOL fucking hell... brain damage from too much TV is a real thing apparently.

I know "election" is a foreign concept in Russia but if wikipedia is not banned yet - read up on it.

This obsession with strongman personality is mostly responsible for the shithole Russia finds itself in right now. OTOH - take out Zelensky and Ukrainians would probably fight even harder because their fight isn't about one person.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 27, 2022, 05:40:28 AM
Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.
I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population. Support for Biden in the US is now at an all-time low and does not exceed 40% of the population. European politicians feel even less confident - Europeans are already being offered not just to start saving, but they really face the prospect of freezing next winter.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 27, 2022, 06:07:36 AM
Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.
I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population. Support for Biden in the US is now at an all-time low and does not exceed 40% of the population. European politicians feel even less confident - Europeans are already being offered not just to start saving, but they really face the prospect of freezing next winter.

In a month, Putin's popularity will reach 100%. And the economic fallout will be blamed on the Nazi West.

Closed borders and a military draft will follow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHomETco0MI


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Etranger on March 27, 2022, 06:20:33 AM
I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population.

Oh,  yeah, totally agree with you.. That is why I want to throw up when somebody tells this war is only guilt of Putin, because only him is a mad dictator, and poor russians don’t want this at all, they are just so afraid to fight back. All this is  a bullshit. If there were normal people in this roten country, they have moved away years ago. People, who are leaving now, this several thousands, are not opposing power, they are just cowards, who started to leave the sinking ship. Some of them were really supporting their sachem so far it has not had any negative consequences for them.  If it was due to their conscious position or disagreement with the government, they would have done this much earlier, because this war against Ukraine didn’t begin suddenly, it was prepared for years, only blind ones could miss all this preparations. That is why, every single russian is responsible for the terror their government and their army brought to my land. Most of them openly support huilo’s “political” actions, the rest of them are doing nothing to stop this horror, it means that they are responsible for criminal inaction.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 27, 2022, 06:23:00 AM
In a month, Putin's popularity will reach 100%. And the economic fallout will be blamed on the Nazi West.
You say that like it's a bad thing (https://youtu.be/tNyC2TVFSaM). ;D
Closed borders and a military draft will follow.
But this is your wet fantasy. I do not see the prerequisites for mass mobilization in Russia; professional military personnel are doing their job quite well. Yesterday there was a report of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the month of the operation, and the whole world was surprised to note the accuracy and transparency of official data. And here is the opinion (https://focus.ua/ukraine/510316-territorialnaya-oborona-ubivaet-ukrainskih-voennyh-prinimaya-ih-za-drg-rf-bondar) of a member of the right-wing radical organization "Fundamentals of the Future" about the fighters of the defense, actively practicing "friendly fire". With such friends, Ukraine does not need enemies, you yourself will shoot each other there.
I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population.

Oh,  yeah, totally agree with you.. That is why I want to throw up when somebody tells this war is only guilt of Putin, because only him is a mad dictator, and poor russians don’t want this at all, they are just so afraid to fight back. All this is  a bullshit. If there were normal people in this roten country, they have moved away years ago. People, who are leaving now, this several thousands, are not opposing power, they are just cowards, who started to leave the sinking ship. Some of them were really supporting their sachem so far it has not had any negative consequences for them.  If it was due to their conscious position or disagreement with the government, they would have done this much earlier, because this war against Ukraine didn’t begin suddenly, it was prepared for years, only blind ones could miss all this preparations. That is why, every single russian is responsible for the terror their government and their army brought to my land. Most of them openly support huilo’s “political” actions, the rest of them are doing nothing to stop this horror, it means that they are responsible for criminal inaction.
Do not shift from a sick head to a healthy one. Russians for the most part live ordinary lives every day, children go to school and adults go to work or go about their own business. Drivers are happy that gasoline and gas prices have fallen, stores are full of shelves with food, although food prices have risen slightly. There are no mass demonstrations (https://youtu.be/isFwY0qJpOo) and torchlight processions on the streets, as happened at times, for example, in Kyiv (https://youtu.be/XI0LPMJdKr0). The Russian people approve of the operation because they do not like Nazism and do not intend to endure threats against them from anyone. There is no corpus delicti on the Russian side.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: cabron on March 27, 2022, 01:08:39 PM
It's a war between 2 dictators

LOL fucking hell... brain damage from too much TV is a real thing apparently.

I know "election" is a foreign concept in Russia but if wikipedia is not banned yet - read up on it.

This obsession with strongman personality is mostly responsible for the shithole Russia finds itself in right now. OTOH - take out Zelensky and Ukrainians would probably fight even harder because their fight isn't about one person.

Didn't he imprison his counterpart and shut down TV stations criticizing him?
The US media hailed him so much like a hero but it's really not. It's just on TV. In reality, he is a strong comedian. Ukrainian even despises this president for having no balls to fight back Biden administration but instead led his country to destruction. Pity this president will just be a bad memory for Ukrainian.

Too bad for Biden too because there is no option but sanctions only and India realized who their real friends are. No options now but to wage sanctions against Russia without proxy war soon. Like Putin said sanctions are for weaklings. Narendra Modi realizes, Biden is a demented old fart who will likely singlehandedly crush their dreams of controlling the orients.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 27, 2022, 01:32:15 PM
Narendra Modi

Exactly my point. Listening to that shit turned your brain into porridge. It's not a coincidence that dictatorships like China - or wannabe dictatorships like Serbia or India - that have their own territorial delusions are Putin's biggest supporters. Should probably start working on plan B if the "world's best / 2nd best / 3rd best (depending on whom you ask) military" with crusty WW2 equipment and untrained hungry cannon fodder is unable to fulfill Putin's ambitions.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: TheCoinGrabber on March 27, 2022, 05:43:58 PM
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil.
Putin cannot actually follow through on threats to stop selling oil and gas. This is how Putin is financing the war. If Putin stops selling Russian energy to the West, he will quickly run out of money.

Putin's best bet is to threaten to withhold Russian energy from Europe to coerce them into lifting other sanctions, and into stopping supporting Ukraine militarily.

Yes he can threaten them but he can probably just shut it of if he get cornered enough. Maybe not entirely, maybe just halt it for a few hours to cause interruptions to make it clear that they need it. So far it hasn't happened because they did not do any drastic military actions yet.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 28, 2022, 05:54:25 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.
What kind of nonsense is this? There is no reason why Putin would want more Rubles? The Ruble is worthless and Putin has the ability to print an unlimited supply of Rubles.
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil.
Putin cannot actually follow through on threats to stop selling oil and gas. This is how Putin is financing the war. If Putin stops selling Russian energy to the West, he will quickly run out of money.

Putin's best bet is to threaten to withhold Russian energy from Europe to coerce them into lifting other sanctions, and into stopping supporting Ukraine militarily.
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles, the ruble became the currency backed by Russian gas, which Europe needs right now just to survive and prevent the collapse of industrial production. What you call "money" is no longer money for Putin, the US dollar and the euro are completely discredited in the eyes of Russia by the freezing of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The ruble is money, the yuan is money, gold also has value, and the US dollar and euro are empty shells, backed by a trust in the US and the EU that no longer exists. And given Russia's large trade surplus, this is more of a problem for the US and the EU than a problem for Russia.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler. In essence, this means that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has ceased to be subordinate to the Bank for International Settlements and is pursuing an independent monetary policy with priority on the interests of Russia. If the EU buys gas for rubles, the ruble will begin to strengthen to any price levels that suit the Central Bank of Russia. And all the risks and overheads from circumventing its own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the European Union.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 28, 2022, 11:24:47 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.
What kind of nonsense is this? There is no reason why Putin would want more Rubles? The Ruble is worthless and Putin has the ability to print an unlimited supply of Rubles.
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil.
Putin cannot actually follow through on threats to stop selling oil and gas. This is how Putin is financing the war. If Putin stops selling Russian energy to the West, he will quickly run out of money.

Putin's best bet is to threaten to withhold Russian energy from Europe to coerce them into lifting other sanctions, and into stopping supporting Ukraine militarily.
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles, the ruble became the currency backed by Russian gas, which Europe needs right now just to survive and prevent the collapse of industrial production. What you call "money" is no longer money for Putin,

...

Until Putin needs to import anything from outside his Tzardom, in which case all the sudden money is, in the end, USD, Euros or Yuans as the ruble has zero use abroad.

Germany - not all Europe - needs a supply of gas that needs to pay in USD, as per the contracts signed for that supply. Putin has broken the international laws of commerce (not that he cares) and will pay dearly for it, as reputation cannot be brought back even paying for it. If you have any doubt about it, just consider if you would ever buy from someone that decides to change the signed terms unilaterally.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.

Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 28, 2022, 12:03:19 PM
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles

He can announce that he's the King of Mars, that doesn't make it real.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler.

Yeah a good hint as to how bad Putin's regime is.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 28, 2022, 02:28:54 PM
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles

He can announce that he's the King of Mars, that doesn't make it real.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler.

Yeah a good hint as to how bad Putin's regime is.

When Switzerland is somehow reluctant to take your money it is definitely time to worry.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 28, 2022, 04:25:12 PM
Until Putin needs to import anything from outside his Tzardom, in which case all the sudden money is, in the end, USD, Euros or Yuans as the ruble has zero use abroad.
Russia, under the pressure of sanctions, reduced imports to almost zero, but the Russian economy did not collapse. Russia has been well prepared for sanctions since 2014 and is protected from food shortages amid an energy glut. The import is important, but no instant catastrophic drama came from its overlap.
Germany - not all Europe - needs a supply of gas that needs to pay in USD, as per the contracts signed for that supply. Putin has broken the international laws of commerce (not that he cares) and will pay dearly for it, as reputation cannot be brought back even paying for it. If you have any doubt about it, just consider if you would ever buy from someone that decides to change the signed terms unilaterally.
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most. Gazprom, even a month after the start of the special operation, pumps the maximum volume through the gas pipeline in Ukraine, showing itself to be a reliable supplier. The imposed sanctions do not allow Gazprom to receive and manage the money received as payment for the supplied gas, and Putin said to sell gas for rubles. For Gazprom, these are force majeure circumstances, quite a good reason to revise all contracts. Moreover, the European Union has created a special European Commission for the purchase of gas from Russia, so as not to create internal competition between different European countries in the price struggle for the same volumes.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.
Germany needs Russian gas here and now, and the most optimistic strategy for phasing out Russian energy sources is designed for two years. The energy system is designed for a gas pipeline, to switch to liquefied gas it is necessary to build many tankers and terminals - and this is difficult, long and expensive. Most likely, new contracts between Russia and the European Union with the calculation in rubles will be signed directly or through a democratic lining.

The United States is acting according to the old manual, trying to embroil Russia and Germany. However, Russia's turn to the east could create an alliance of Russia, India and China, the likes of which the world has not yet seen in strength.
Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.
After the sanctions have blocked the funds of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros, with a ban on operations with gold, it is ridiculous to talk about Russia's default, rather it is a default of the West. Russia lives with a budget surplus and does not have a large external debt.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Veleor on March 28, 2022, 06:08:38 PM
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most.

The Statista website has reported in the recent article (https://www.statista.com/chart/26768/) that among European countries the largest dependence on Russian gas is in such countries as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Finland, Latvia and Bulgaria. Next on the list are Germany, Italy, Poland, France, etc.

https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 28, 2022, 08:16:29 PM
...
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most. Gazprom, even a month after the start of the special operation, pumps the maximum volume through the gas pipeline in Ukraine, showing itself to be a reliable supplier. The imposed sanctions do not allow Gazprom to receive and manage the money received as payment for the supplied gas, and Putin said to sell gas for rubles. For Gazprom, these are force majeure circumstances, quite a good reason to revise all contracts. Moreover, the European Union has created a special European Commission for the purchase of gas from Russia, so as not to create internal competition between different European countries in the price struggle for the same volumes.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.
Germany needs Russian gas here and now, and the most optimistic strategy for phasing out Russian energy sources is designed for two years. The energy system is designed for a gas pipeline, to switch to liquefied gas it is necessary to build many tankers and terminals - and this is difficult, long and expensive. Most likely, new contracts between Russia and the European Union with the calculation in rubles will be signed directly or through a democratic lining.

The United States is acting according to the old manual, trying to embroil Russia and Germany. However, Russia's turn to the east could create an alliance of Russia, India and China, the likes of which the world has not yet seen in strength.
Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.
After the sanctions have blocked the funds of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros, with a ban on operations with gold, it is ridiculous to talk about Russia's default, rather it is a default of the West. Russia lives with a budget surplus and does not have a large external debt.

Ok, seems like I have some work here:

a) The commission created is actually to NOT buy gas from Russia, but to find reasonable alternative suppliers without competing.
b) To put things in context, Germany uses around 40% of Russian gas. That is no more than  10% of the total energy consumption of Germany.
c) The liquefaction facilities take a couple of years to build - less if you are really in a hurry, just as I said.
d) An alliance with China an India... sure, go for it and good luck. Putin has shown to be a great partner, who would not want him covering ones back? (It is ironic just in case).
e) Russia has prepared well for sanctions, until Putin got a large chunk of his reserves retained. Did he "prepare" that? What do you think that happens to a country that takes a 10% hit on its GDP after already loosing 10% to COVID? We are talking people looking in thrash cans a the young selling their bodies to save for a ticket out. Even the military may not get paid.

But you biggest piece here: "Force Majeure"

The definition of Force Majeure is certainly not that you currency is devaluating - not even a war unless it damages the infrastructure or makes it impossible to meet the supply - seriously, who told you that Putin supporting the Ruble is even remotely close to the legal definition of force majeure anywhere? Did you make that up yourself or is it the official propaganda?

Not even COVID has been considered as such for many business across several jurisdictions and even in that case you cannot change the payment or rents or other elements of contracts, at most you could not supply if, for example, a super-earthquake breaks the pipes (they are actually designed so that they don't break, but just as example).




Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 29, 2022, 04:07:40 AM
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most.

The Statista website has reported in the recent article (https://www.statista.com/chart/26768/) that among European countries the largest dependence on Russian gas is in such countries as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Finland, Latvia and Bulgaria. Next on the list are Germany, Italy, Poland, France, etc.
If we look at the absolute figures of Russian gas consumption by European countries, the picture will change. Germany consumes a lot of Russian gas because it has a developed industry and because Germany, under pressure from environmentalists, curtailed its nuclear energy, unlike, say, France - which also consumes a lot of Russian gas, but is much more protected from the problem of energy hunger.

ps According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D



a) The commission created is actually to NOT buy gas from Russia, but to find reasonable alternative suppliers without competing.
b) To put things in context, Germany uses around 40% of Russian gas. That is no more than  10% of the total energy consumption of Germany.
c) The liquefaction facilities take a couple of years to build - less if you are really in a hurry, just as I said.
d) An alliance with China an India... sure, go for it and good luck. Putin has shown to be a great partner, who would not want him covering ones back? (It is ironic just in case).
e) Russia has prepared well for sanctions, until Putin got a large chunk of his reserves retained. Did he "prepare" that? What do you think that happens to a country that takes a 10% hit on its GDP after already loosing 10% to COVID? We are talking people looking in thrash cans a the young selling their bodies to save for a ticket out. Even the military may not get paid.
a) This commission will buy all gas for the whole of Europe, so in all existing contracts for the supply of gas, at least the host will change. I think the contract currency will also change from dollar or euro to ruble.
b) Gas is not only heating houses in winter, but also a raw material for electricity generation and chemical industries (such as the production of fertilizers for agriculture). Gas stocks in Europe's storage facilities are at historically low levels after this winter and need to be replenished quickly to reach acceptable levels by next winter. This is a serious problem for Germany and all of Europe. Farmers in Italy and Spain are already rallying against the increase in the price of fertilizers, they are rallying instead of carrying out sowing work. By paralyzing its industry with the immediate rejection of Russian gas, Europe is turning itself into a concentration of acute political, economic and social problems.
c) Good luck.
d) The union of Russia with India and China is a terrible dream of the West. India and China have colossal human resources, and Russia has colossal natural resources. India and China have disagreements and mutual claims, but if Russia manages to balance them and settle them as an arbitrator, then this is a serious bid for dominance in the world.
e) Yes, Putin prepared this, a very well-planned special operation. Excellent strategy and decent implementation. The story is in full swing - you will see everything for yourself.
But you biggest piece here: "Force Majeure"

The definition of Force Majeure is certainly not that you currency is devaluating - not even a war unless it damages the infrastructure or makes it impossible to meet the supply - seriously, who told you that Putin supporting the Ruble is even remotely close to the legal definition of force majeure anywhere? Did you make that up yourself or is it the official propaganda?

Not even COVID has been considered as such for many business across several jurisdictions and even in that case you cannot change the payment or rents or other elements of contracts, at most you could not supply if, for example, a super-earthquake breaks the pipes (they are actually designed so that they don't break, but just as example).
I have not read Gazprom's gas supply contracts. I know that all contracts concluded after 2014 provide for the possibility of payment in rubles. For example, Bulgaria has such a contract and sees no problem in paying for gas in rubles. In my opinion, the impossibility for Gazprom, due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, to freely dispose of its proceeds from the sale of gas in euros and dollars is a force majeure circumstance for Gazprom and a good reason for the immediate termination of contracts without any penalties. Europe seriously thinks that Russia should continue to supply gas for free and at the same time apologize for invading Ukraine? It doesn't work that way.



As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles
He can announce that he's the King of Mars, that doesn't make it real.
So far, it seems that it is the EU politicians who are in the clouds and make a lot of populist statements. On April 1, gas supplies to Europe are possible only for rubles, and this is not a joke on a fool's day.  ;D

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler.
Yeah a good hint as to how bad Putin's regime is.
Moral aside, Putin's regime is very efficient. No one before Putin so consistently imposed such a high efficiency of the management system on the colossal excess of natural resources of such a geographically huge country. Europe listened poorly to Putin at the Munich security conference in 2007 and is reaping the rewards of its strategic myopia.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Veleor on March 29, 2022, 11:32:50 AM
According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D
These are not my statistics, but from a specialized European site. This Statista picture (https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg) apparently shows only direct gas purchases from Russia and doesn't take resales into account. Ukraine has not used Russian gas since 2015 only formally, but actually buys it through Hungary and Slovakia (https://t.me/stranaua/23820).


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: yazher on March 29, 2022, 11:56:08 AM
I was wondering if they gonna stop the war because of these multiple sanctions since the day there invade Ukraine but guess what? they still going strong and wanted to take all the major cities as soon as possible. The Ukrainian army doesn't stop depending on their country which makes this war longer than speculated. just today, they regained back one city from the Russian troops. I don't know but I think sanctions are just for poor countries and a country like Russia is immune to this kind of counter against their country.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 29, 2022, 12:05:53 PM
According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D
These are not my statistics, but from a specialized European site. This Statista picture (https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg) apparently shows only direct gas purchases from Russia and doesn't take resales into account. Ukraine has not used Russian gas since 2015 only formally, but actually buys it through Hungary and Slovakia (https://t.me/stranaua/23820).
I think Europe will buy gas from Russia in a similar way with the help of a virtual reverse through Bulgaria or Turkey, additionally paying for their intermediary services, but doing it without pleasure. However, we will soon see everything for ourselves. It is not clear how Europe will get out of this delicate situation while trying to save face, but Russia's message to Europe does not allow for ambiguity and room for double interpretation: "No money - no honey".


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 29, 2022, 09:46:13 PM
According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D
These are not my statistics, but from a specialized European site. This Statista picture (https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg) apparently shows only direct gas purchases from Russia and doesn't take resales into account. Ukraine has not used Russian gas since 2015 only formally, but actually buys it through Hungary and Slovakia (https://t.me/stranaua/23820).
I think Europe will buy gas from Russia in a similar way with the help of a virtual reverse through Bulgaria or Turkey, additionally paying for their intermediary services, but doing it without pleasure. However, we will soon see everything for ourselves. It is not clear how Europe will get out of this delicate situation while trying to save face, but Russia's message to Europe does not allow for ambiguity and room for double interpretation: "No money - no honey".

I think Putin's Russia will be a very helpful partner, selling Europe everything they need to keep on producing the weapons to kill the young untrained Russian soldiers. Curiously, the bullets that kill them could be paid in rubles as per your theory.

This is sad, even my great sense of humour is not enough to laugh at this.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 30, 2022, 07:02:58 AM
According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D
These are not my statistics, but from a specialized European site. This Statista picture (https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg) apparently shows only direct gas purchases from Russia and doesn't take resales into account. Ukraine has not used Russian gas since 2015 only formally, but actually buys it through Hungary and Slovakia (https://t.me/stranaua/23820).
I think Europe will buy gas from Russia in a similar way with the help of a virtual reverse through Bulgaria or Turkey, additionally paying for their intermediary services, but doing it without pleasure. However, we will soon see everything for ourselves. It is not clear how Europe will get out of this delicate situation while trying to save face, but Russia's message to Europe does not allow for ambiguity and room for double interpretation: "No money - no honey".

I think Putin's Russia will be a very helpful partner, selling Europe everything they need to keep on producing the weapons to kill the young untrained Russian soldiers. Curiously, the bullets that kill them could be paid in rubles as per your theory.

This is sad, even my great sense of humour is not enough to laugh at this.
Let's try to stick to the economic aspects of sanctions and counter-sanctions in this topic, without moralizing. I understand that in the West Putin is considered the personification of evil, and all Russians in the light of the Western media apparently look like wild barbarians and bloodthirsty orcs. But Europe is already beginning to understand that among the millions of refugees from Ukraine there are many Nazis who desecrate monuments to Soviet soldiers during the Second World War and behave defiantly and unceremoniously, demanding special treatment just because of their nationality and just because "Ukraine über alles". Over time, the veil of lies will fall from the eyes of ordinary Europeans once and for all, when they realize that they are suffering from their own sanctions more than Russia. But gas prices under long-term contracts will not be the same.

Germany may not freeze to death without Russian gas (wearing a warm sweater  ;D), but it was cheap Russian pipeline gas that gave Germany the competitive edge to remain a strong industrial nation. In 2021, the average price of gas supplies by Gazprom under long-term contracts was $270 per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom is not interested in short-term gas supplies at spot prices, it does not deal with this. Tankers with liquefied gas became interested in the European market and turned away from deliveries to Asia after the price of gas on the European exchange exceeded $2,000 per thousand cubic meters. This is the approximate price point at which Europe will be able to buy gas in the near future, if it can find sufficient volumes on the market to meet its needs.

Russia already has experience cutting off gas to intractable partners. On January 1, 2009, Russia cut off gas to Ukraine. Nine days later, the Ukrainian delegation signed in Moscow a new contract for the supply of gas at a price several times higher. The lessons of history teach that they teach nothing. Well, as we like to say in Russia: "Moжeм пoвтopить".


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 30, 2022, 09:57:57 AM
According to your statistics, Ukraine depends on Russian gas by 0%, although Ukraine depends on the reverse of Russian gas from Slovenia. ;D
These are not my statistics, but from a specialized European site. This Statista picture (https://i.imgur.com/n1rNnHC.jpg) apparently shows only direct gas purchases from Russia and doesn't take resales into account. Ukraine has not used Russian gas since 2015 only formally, but actually buys it through Hungary and Slovakia (https://t.me/stranaua/23820).
I think Europe will buy gas from Russia in a similar way with the help of a virtual reverse through Bulgaria or Turkey, additionally paying for their intermediary services, but doing it without pleasure. However, we will soon see everything for ourselves. It is not clear how Europe will get out of this delicate situation while trying to save face, but Russia's message to Europe does not allow for ambiguity and room for double interpretation: "No money - no honey".

I think Putin's Russia will be a very helpful partner, selling Europe everything they need to keep on producing the weapons to kill the young untrained Russian soldiers. Curiously, the bullets that kill them could be paid in rubles as per your theory.

This is sad, even my great sense of humour is not enough to laugh at this.
[blah blah Russia is great blah blah the UE will suffer...]

Germany may not freeze to death without Russian gas (wearing a warm sweater  ;D), but it was cheap Russian pipeline gas that gave Germany the competitive edge to remain a strong industrial nation.

[...]

Russia already has experience cutting off gas to intractable partners. On January 1, 2009, Russia cut off gas to Ukraine. Nine days later, the Ukrainian delegation signed in Moscow a new contract for the supply of gas at a price several times higher. The lessons of history teach that they teach nothing. Well, as we like to say in Russia: "Moжeм пoвтopить".

The future is to get rid of gas altogether, perhaps this is going to accelerate that as COVID accelerated remote working. Germany and the EU in general have options, as I guess Putin has options on where to sell his gas... eventually the market will reconfigure, but what cannot be ever restored is reputation and confidence. Anyone buying from Putin knows that contracts are wet paper and that by connecting to his version of Russia they are becoming weaker.

Do you think that after changing the payment and eventually threatening to cut contractually signed gas supplies would any country invest ever in a gas pipe to connect to Putin's Russia? Do you dream of an Eastern alliance with such a reputation?

There will be hard times ahead, there is no winner to this stupid war, but if I had to choose where to live those times, I am certain it would not be in Putin's Russia. You will have gas and heating, but millions of people will not have money to pay for it. Germany will also loose in some of its industrial sectors, but still has marging.

BTW, I have a completely different version of the negotiations with Ukraine regarding the gas, as Putin needed the agreement of Ukraine to send gas to the EU. As we like to say in some of the places I live "donde tengas la olla no metas la polla".





Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 31, 2022, 03:40:03 AM
The future is to get rid of gas altogether, perhaps this is going to accelerate that as COVID accelerated remote working. Germany and the EU in general have options, as I guess Putin has options on where to sell his gas... eventually the market will reconfigure, but what cannot be ever restored is reputation and confidence. Anyone buying from Putin knows that contracts are wet paper and that by connecting to his version of Russia they are becoming weaker.
The energy system of Germany is focused on pipeline gas from Russia. In general, the current European strategy for the transition to carbon-free green energy relies on hydrogen, which is planned to be produced in Russia and delivered to Europe through the existing gas pipeline system with the addition of 20% natural gas (because pure hydrogen is a very volatile gas). All gas pipelines to Europe, including the non-certified Nord Stream 2, allow hybrid operation of a mixture of hydrogen and natural gas. Wind turbines and solar energy are too unstable to be a reliable main energy system, so Europe has bet on hydrogen in its future. Maybe Germany has a new energy strategy recently, I don't know anything about that.

Do you think that after changing the payment and eventually threatening to cut contractually signed gas supplies would any country invest ever in a gas pipe to connect to Putin's Russia? Do you dream of an Eastern alliance with such a reputation?
I think the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a serious reputational damage for the West. The USA, Great Britain, the European Union, Japan and even Switzerland have significantly discredited their own national currencies in the eyes of the entire world community - the US dollar, the pound sterling, the euro, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, these fiat currencies can no longer be considered reliable enough for long-term storage, because they can be easily frozen, just when you need them most. The value of fiat currencies rests on the trust in the issuer, and this trust no longer exists. In fact, this is the end of the Jamaican monetary system.

There will be hard times ahead, there is no winner to this stupid war, but if I had to choose where to live those times, I am certain it would not be in Putin's Russia. You will have gas and heating, but millions of people will not have money to pay for it. Germany will also loose in some of its industrial sectors, but still has marging.
Europe is now puffing out its cheeks indignantly, but in European politics there is no leader with charisma like Che Guevara or Castro, who will set fire to the stadium with a fiery speech and the crowd in ecstasy will begin to chant "Freedom or death!" Talking heads speak in the media, but the real gas contracts are between commercial enterprises. The exchange rate of the ruble on Forex is growing, which means that non-residents are buying the ruble, preparing for the prospect of paying their gas contracts in rubles. Tomorrow the operating mechanism of gas payment for rubles will be made public. Yesterday, gas stopped flowing through Poland through a branch of the gas pipeline.

Usually, Putin's first offer is the most profitable for his partners - gas for rubles while maintaining the price of the contract. A little later there will be a new offer, less profitable, but still acceptable - gas for rubles with a revision of the price in the direction of the market.

BTW, I have a completely different version of the negotiations with Ukraine regarding the gas, as Putin needed the agreement of Ukraine to send gas to the EU. As we like to say in some of the places I live "donde tengas la olla no metas la polla".
Sometimes it seems that you and I generally live in some kind of parallel worlds. One and the same reality and we have such a different view of it. It's funny that we can still continue the dialogue. ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 31, 2022, 11:13:35 AM
in European politics there is no leader with charisma like Che Guevara or Castro

That's why Russia with its "leaders" is in the shitter while the rest of the civilized world has realized that giving all power to one person is a bad idea and came up with various albeit imperfect ways of distributing that power.

On April 1, gas supplies to Europe are possible only for rubles, and this is not a joke on a fool's day.

Tomorrow the operating mechanism of gas payment for rubles will be made public.

Sounds like a 30-year old living in mom's basement. "I will move out tomorrow". "I actually meant that tomorrow I will announce a mechanism for moving out but if you object to my insane conditions I will gladly stay".



Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on March 31, 2022, 02:19:43 PM
On April 1, gas supplies to Europe are possible only for rubles, and this is not a joke on a fool's day.

Tomorrow the operating mechanism of gas payment for rubles will be made public.

Sounds like a 30-year old living in mom's basement. "I will move out tomorrow". "I actually meant that tomorrow I will announce a mechanism for moving out but if you object to my insane conditions I will gladly stay".
You are so funny when you squirt bile. Here (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) is Putin's decree on the "gas for rubles" mechanism, which begins to operate from tomorrow.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: suchmoon on March 31, 2022, 03:36:33 PM
You are so funny when you squirt bile. Here (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) is Putin's decree on the "gas for rubles" mechanism, which begins to operate from tomorrow.

Here is the "mechanism": Gazprom bank would open euro/dollar and ruble accounts for gas buyers; buyers are supposed to transfer euros/dollars; the bank then would convert those euros/dollars to rubles; Gazprom would take those rubles.

https://i.imgflip.com/6avfy2.jpg


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on March 31, 2022, 04:22:01 PM
You are so funny when you squirt bile. Here (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) is Putin's decree on the "gas for rubles" mechanism, which begins to operate from tomorrow.

Here is the "mechanism": Gazprom bank would open euro/dollar and ruble accounts for gas buyers; buyers are supposed to transfer euros/dollars; the bank then would convert those euros/dollars to rubles; Gazprom would take those rubles.

https://i.imgflip.com/6avfy2.jpg

The companies with existing contracts pay in Euros. The new contracts, if any, will need to be negotiated in Rubles.

German gas suppliers continue to pay Gazprom in Euros, just like before the war/sanctions.

What Gazprom does with the Euros is their business.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on March 31, 2022, 09:36:08 PM
...

Do you think that after changing the payment and eventually threatening to cut contractually signed gas supplies would any country invest ever in a gas pipe to connect to Putin's Russia? Do you dream of an Eastern alliance with such a reputation?
I think the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a serious reputational damage for the West. The USA, Great Britain, the European Union, Japan and even Switzerland have significantly discredited their own national currencies in the eyes of the entire world community - the US dollar, the pound sterling, the euro, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, these fiat currencies can no longer be considered reliable enough for long-term storage, because they can be easily frozen, just when you need them most. The value of fiat currencies rests on the trust in the issuer, and this trust no longer exists. In fact, this is the end of the Jamaican monetary system.

...

I agree, there is a reputation come, but I think this is the right reputation actually. If you are willing to threaten and invade, you have no business here.


BTW, I have a completely different version of the negotiations with Ukraine regarding the gas, as Putin needed the agreement of Ukraine to send gas to the EU. As we like to say in some of the places I live "donde tengas la olla no metas la polla".
Sometimes it seems that you and I generally live in some kind of parallel worlds. One and the same reality and we have such a different view of it. It's funny that we can still continue the dialogue. ;D

I am not surprised, in the places I live people talk, even if to disagree and tell others they are wrong (without killing them usually). There something about the Russian unwillingness to compromise, in general, that I find difficult to understand.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on April 01, 2022, 03:19:35 AM
You are so funny when you squirt bile. Here (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) is Putin's decree on the "gas for rubles" mechanism, which begins to operate from tomorrow.

Here is the "mechanism": Gazprom bank would open euro/dollar and ruble accounts for gas buyers; buyers are supposed to transfer euros/dollars; the bank then would convert those euros/dollars to rubles; Gazprom would take those rubles.

https://i.imgflip.com/6avfy2.jpg

The companies with existing contracts pay in Euros. The new contracts, if any, will need to be negotiated in Rubles.

German gas suppliers continue to pay Gazprom in Euros, just like before the war/sanctions.

What Gazprom does with the Euros is their business.
1. Starting today, Gazprom supplies gas to unfriendly countries for rubles (exceptions are possible through the decision of a government commission).

2. The mechanism is as transparent as possible for Western clients - they continue to receive gas under existing contracts, the conversion of euros into rubles for Gazprom through the Moscow Currency Exchange will be done by Gazprombank affiliated with Gazprom, which for the normal operation of the mechanism must be free from Western sanctions. This is just a working mechanism for circumventing sanctions, which your propaganda trumpeted as a win, giving European politicians a chance to save face. In the week of waiting for Putin's decree in Europe, they came up with everything, including scenarios that would be catastrophic for the economy of an immediate refusal of Russian gas, so the mere possibility of continuing to pay in euros under existing contracts is regarded by the European Union as its own victory. I said above that Putin's first offer is usually the best for partners - and here it is. Putin shows respect for the German industrial business by keeping their existing contracts almost unchanged, except for the bank details of the recipient of funds for a stable supply of Russian gas. Putin does not want to break mutually beneficial ties with Europe, because Moscow is also Europe. This is a strong move by Putin, showing him as a mature strategist. But you can keep shouting "Пepeмoгa", ok.  ;D


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: af_newbie on April 01, 2022, 06:33:28 AM
You are so funny when you squirt bile. Here (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) is Putin's decree on the "gas for rubles" mechanism, which begins to operate from tomorrow.

Here is the "mechanism": Gazprom bank would open euro/dollar and ruble accounts for gas buyers; buyers are supposed to transfer euros/dollars; the bank then would convert those euros/dollars to rubles; Gazprom would take those rubles.

https://i.imgflip.com/6avfy2.jpg

The companies with existing contracts pay in Euros. The new contracts, if any, will need to be negotiated in Rubles.

German gas suppliers continue to pay Gazprom in Euros, just like before the war/sanctions.

What Gazprom does with the Euros is their business.
1. Starting today, Gazprom supplies gas to unfriendly countries for rubles (exceptions are possible through the decision of a government commission).

2. The mechanism is as transparent as possible for Western clients - they continue to receive gas under existing contracts, the conversion of euros into rubles for Gazprom through the Moscow Currency Exchange will be done by Gazprombank affiliated with Gazprom, which for the normal operation of the mechanism must be free from Western sanctions. This is just a working mechanism for circumventing sanctions, which your propaganda trumpeted as a win, giving European politicians a chance to save face. In the week of waiting for Putin's decree in Europe, they came up with everything, including scenarios that would be catastrophic for the economy of an immediate refusal of Russian gas, so the mere possibility of continuing to pay in euros under existing contracts is regarded by the European Union as its own victory. I said above that Putin's first offer is usually the best for partners - and here it is. Putin shows respect for the German industrial business by keeping their existing contracts almost unchanged, except for the bank details of the recipient of funds for a stable supply of Russian gas. Putin does not want to break mutually beneficial ties with Europe, because Moscow is also Europe. This is a strong move by Putin, showing him as a mature strategist. But you can keep shouting "Пepeмoгa", ok.  ;D

Lol. I am afraid, that train has left the station. The divorce proceedings are in progress.

If you think we will go back to the way things were even if Putin withdraws his army from Donbas and Crimea tomorrow, you are mistaken.

Your fuhrer is a war criminal, and nothing will change this fact. You guys are done.  All civilized world will not want to have anything to do with you.

No more Blancpain watches for you, Volodiya.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: Tash on April 01, 2022, 06:46:58 AM
Russian sanctions lifted already. Not all but a start
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/russia_gl6a.pdf


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on April 02, 2022, 04:17:24 AM
Lol.
Glad you're having fun. ;D
I am afraid, that train has left the station. The divorce proceedings are in progress.

If you think we will go back to the way things were even if Putin withdraws his army from Donbas and Crimea tomorrow, you are mistaken.

Your fuhrer is a war criminal, and nothing will change this fact. You guys are done.  All civilized world will not want to have anything to do with you.

No more Blancpain watches for you, Volodiya.
What divorce process, what are you talking about? Europe has spent a week considering the possibilities and prospects of abandoning Russian gas, and now it looks like it will be happy to announce its victory, continuing to pay for gas in euros, bypassing its own sanctions. Europe cannot refuse Russian gas right now - this is an immediate economic disaster with the shutdown of large industrial enterprises (https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.martin-brudermueller-basf-chef-schwerste-wirstchaftskrise-seit-zweitem-weltkrieg-moeglich.81207bb3-eb62-4d58-aa73-a371dc35c3a2.html). Europe cannot abandon Russian gas in a year or two - too much time and money will be spent on building a new infrastructure adapted for liquefied gas, and free liquefied gas simply does not exist on the market in sufficient volumes, and there is nowhere to take it from. Having mentally abandoned Russian gas, Europe realized the scale of its dependence on it, in general, on the supply of fertilizers, raw materials, natural resources and cheap energy from Russia, and I think it was a very educational experience.

In the meantime, here's a recent article in The Economist (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/04/02/under-unprecedented-sanctions-how-is-the-russian-economy-faring) on the effects of economic sanctions on Russia.
Quote
If any economy could come close to coping with being cut off from the world, it would be Russia’s.
In short, it looks like the Russians пoxyй about sanctions.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: paxmao on April 06, 2022, 12:38:02 PM
...
Quote
If any economy could come close to coping with being cut off from the world, it would be Russia’s.
In short, it looks like the Russians пoxyй about sanctions.


You have exchanged all your roubles to US or bitcoin haven't you?

https://external-preview.redd.it/HtqsVWUxlI_ZBmdYe43BzmkanCH6n58FSAVH4egszzA.jpg?auto=webp&s=01d4d2089f3bdf7a6a90478de703edb7d5478c57


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: be.open on April 07, 2022, 07:55:17 AM
...
Quote
If any economy could come close to coping with being cut off from the world, it would be Russia’s.
In short, it looks like the Russians пoxyй about sanctions.


You have exchanged all your roubles to US or bitcoin haven't you?
Fiat money is not the best option for long-term investments due to inflation, I use rubles for current expenses and also I like bitcoin.


Title: Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration
Post by: geraldwkoonce on April 07, 2022, 12:26:38 PM
European Parliament supports immediate imposition of embargo on oil and gas imports from Russia

The European Parliament supported a resolution calling for a full and immediate embargo on imports of Russian energy: oil, gas, coal and nuclear fuel. This was announced by MEP Guy Verhofstadt.

The document was supported by the vast majority of MEPs. 413 out of 552 parliamentarians voted for him. Abstentions - 46, against - 93.

I think if an embargo is imposed on Russia, then all previous sanctions will turn out to be simply ridiculous