Bitcoin Forum

The bitcoin market has also been affected by growing concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But Bitcoin has been falling in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at around $ 37,794.
But the oil situation is quite the opposite. Just look at the price of oil and realize that this war has had a huge impact on the price of oil and safe-haven assets like gold.

https://s6.uupload.ir/files/272_w5xm.png

But what is the reason for this?

In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!
+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing
So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also cause more fear among investors.

Bitcoin (and crypto in general) does not exist in a bubble and is therefore subjected to the ever-changing situations in the economy. In a war situation (especially like this one where a threat of a wider scale conflict is greater) people tend to revert to assets that are easily attainable and easily swapped for things that might be needed like FIAT or gold. In economies where there is not much you can do with crypto besides converting it into FIAT people get worried that their crypto assets will become worthless if they can't get to them (same goes for FIAT held in banks, that's why people are lining up to ATM machines in Russia). Also, in an investment sense, people that are fearing global economic collapse caused by war are really not eager to invest.

Russia produces a lot of oil. But because of the war, there are problems with the supply. Russia is being sanctioned by the whole world. There are even reports of Russian ships carrying oil being banned from entering certain ports. The result is less oil on the market but no shortage in demand. Therefore the price of the available reserves are going up.

Maybe it is also that traders are selling Cryptocurrencies to quickly get into Oil investments?  Since Bitcoin's latest drops seem to be in a somewhat correlation with positive Oil changes, it may be a trendy move?

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Regards,
PrivacyG

First of all, I will say that Bitcoin is not the same as oil in the sense that, oil is consumed differently than Bitcoin and this is global which is not the same with Bitcoin hence the reason while you will see the price hike like you see because Russia is a major producer and exporter of oil.

Secondly, I don't think that this Russian Invasion of Ukraine is really affecting the price of Bitcoin as most are saying. Please take time to look at the price in a bigger time frame instead of hourly or minutes.
https://i.imgur.com/qAaWzQD.jpg
From the SS, since Russia Invaded Ukrain on the 24 Feb 2022, which is highlighted in Yellow square, Can you really see any warlike significant price difference from the past days/weeks before Feb 24 Invasion days to today? Square highlight in green.
Bitcoins price came up to 45K+ around Feb 10, 2022, and did the same on March 02, 2022, so again, is there any significant change as with the war effect?

Now, that is the effect of war on price
https://i.imgur.com/11e0kGW.jpg

I think now is a good time to increase the position. Russia is already much stronger than Ukraine, and it is not far from the peaceful manhole cover. The opportunity is slowly emerging, and the rising balance is tilting.

While people think there should always be a reason why the price of Bitcoin rises or falls, then it would be good to learn to look just a little back and try to explain why the same things happen even when there is no war or any significant negative or positive news? A topic was recently launched in which one member wondered why the price of BTC was rising during the war, and I offered him this answer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5387852.msg59396362#msg59396362).

If we look at how the price of BTC has been moving since the beginning of the year, we have at least two sharp falls before this one which is happening now. None of them have anything to do with the war because it didn't exist then, but it also has more than obviously something to do with market manipulation, because someone very successfully regulates the price between $35k and $45 and undoubtedly makes a profit.

https://i.imgur.com/htn4gup.png


Until just a few days ago, all the media said that the crypto market in Ukraine and Russia had exploded and that everyone was buying Bitcoin, and that because of that the price was going up. I wonder what has changed in just a few days - although the answer is more than clear, someone has fallen into the bull trap again, for the third time this year.

As @Pmalek said above, Russia is a big player in the crude oil market, they are the 2nd largest crude-oil exporter in the world. If one the biggest players in a global market is on its way out of the market because of sanctions, demand of this global commodity will naturally go up. Look at Natural Gas and Wheat prices, exact same story as the crude oil because of Russia and the sanctions.

a smart trader doesn't go jumping around from one asset to another asset selling them left and right because of price crashes or sudden spikes.

It is affecting it in daily moves and volume, but not if you look at the last 3 months as a whole. What is affecting it more is anti inflation policies of various countries (mainly the US) that make the stocks fall. Stock traders balance their portfolios by selling the assets they consider most risky which are cryptocurrencies and this creates some bearish sentiment on the market.
The invasion is also creating some risk for the markets because the price fell when Russians attacked a nuclear power plant. People are afraid of a nuclear catastrophe and such event would be a big hit for all financial markets.

I definitely agree.  But look at Shiba, Dogecoin and GameStop for a minute.  See what NFT's did.  With enough sheep, you can move a freaking mountain.  Apparently even if it's made of crap.

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Regards,
PrivacyG

I don't think so.
The situation with oil is so much more complicated than that, same with natural gases both of which are rising fast. It is mainly because of the supply shortage while the demand is still high and slightly increasing too.

Wrong. There has been many wars in the past 13 years that bitcoin has been around, some of which were so much bigger than the Ukraine conflict and involved a lot more countries. In fact the war in Syria for example is referred to world war sometimes as it involved about 80 countries.

I already explained oil situation and for gold you should have looked at the charts before making a statement. Gold got dumped when Russian operation began.

Wrong. There are many wars happening around the world all the time, just start counting ones that United States started, last one is still ongoing  in Yemen but nobody talks about it, than you have four years in Libya, than war in Syria (Russia and US involved), war in Iraq, and maybe some other I don't know.
Israel is in state of war war all the time with surrounding countries and within, and many other local wars happened since bitcoin was created.
I am sure I heard African continent having some conflicts in last few decades.

It's not only prices of oil that is going up, but food, grain, rice and everything else, including metals like Palladium that are used for manufacturing of microchips (expect new wave of chip shortage).
China stocked up a lot of rice and all other food, so it seems to me they are preparing for next big world war, and I am not sure bitcoin will save us from that.

People don't have access to things like visa and master card, even the Google pay is not working in Russia, the sanctions are coming really hard and at the end of the day this is not looking good, therefore people are now switching onto bitcoins since bitcoins as a whole cannot be sanctioned!
Both ukranians and Russians are using bitcoins to tackle the economic probelms therefore I do think that this is going to be a great place for people who are already used to bitcoins and cryptocurrencies. The banks in Ukraine are not giving enough cash out and the only reason I escaped from there was because I had some money in Bitcoins!!! It's great!! Honestly! Leave oil and other safe assets, nothing is safe right now we are in a war.

Demand and Supply in case of Oil. Wars need oil to run. Lots of it. There was a several miles long convoy of Russian millitary trucks stuck in Ukraine due to lack of oil. Every piece of armor and aircraft needs it. On the other hand, the supply gets severely restrained due to obvious geopolitical reasons and everyone trying to hoard more of it.

The world knows that when war hits, you conserve fuel.

In case of Bitcoin, there hasn't really been any defined trend. Crypto rose overall after traders longed on the speculation that Russia may use Bitcoin to circumvent the bans on its banks. It again got a lot of positive press as crypto donations kept pouring in.

This suddenly changed when people realized that a lot of people are in there just for the "airdrops", lol. After an announcement to this effect, lots of spam and small transactions came flooding in. I guess that says something about the space and the subsequent dip.

I think the biggest problem is that Bitcoin is in a bear market, and people  dump it because there are more lucrative opportunities at the times of this war, like oil or gold. If Bitcoin was in a bull market, the safe haven narrative would have been much stronger.

I believe it wasn't just all about their fuelling which I think Russian would have been able to handle because I think they have abundant of it, I believe it is largely because the Ukrainian army has destroyed the Bridge that those Russian military convoys ought to have used to advance and now they are stuck at the main time. I do however believe that bitcoin did have some more publicity during this time and that's good too.

If the oil price is increased, it mean the Russia playing a game behind it. Because Russia want money for the war. Only if they sell oil with increased price, they can win some good money. Instead of pulling on gold and oil. It's better to inverse in digital currency. Now bitcoin price is very low and can't get this value in future. So buy huge amount of bitcoin and hold for longer to get good profit.

TLDR; you can't explain the fluctuations.

There are hundreds of these "mountains" waiting to be moved, but they never do. Only one lucky achieves it once in a while for an irrelevant reason. You can't know what the hell is gonna catch your fishing rod, but you should definitely not expect to catch a big fish. Pretty much the opposite; if you invest in the next dog coin, be prepared to even lose your boat.

I don't know what a trader should do, but if I did the job, I honestly wouldn't get involved with cryptocurrencies at all. I presume trading requires low risk orders, which will increase your income if you do it for a living.

It is evident that the Russian sanctions are related to the occurrence of an increase in the price of oil and gas. There is fear of a possible embargo of Russian oil by the United States.

There are those who are investing to take advantage of the rise in oil and are probably selling bitcoin to make these investments.

The impact of the Ukraine-Russia war that will have serious consequences in one way or another we will be affected.

Elon Musk in a tweet said:

For bitcoin, whether there is war or no war, the price of it is going to fluctuate no matter what and it's an unknown movement that we're going to see at most times.

As for oil, there's the same factor with bitcoin that they move together and that is with the supply and demand. As supply becomes cut as most exporters AFAIK, they're getting crude oil in European part/Russian part and we all know what's with the heat there.

It's a domino effect.

What we can see with the ongoing war is the transition. Countries that depend Russia for oil will now think of green energy and will be developing infrastructure. Every nation could've done this earlier. If so, now they shouldn't need to wait for Russia or other countries for oil. As majority of the countries untied and made sanctions on Russia, surely it will cause issue with the oil price. Probably the oil rich countries will fix the price whereas people from third world countries will suffer.

I am really curious why are most people avoid high-risk assets? Just like Bitcoin. I really don't find any reason for it. Because when I think of it, especially the use cases of Bitcoin, it is the best time to use Bitcoin or other digital currencies right now. It's more on use cases for me during these difficult times other than investment.

I hate it when you guys believe the Russian and Ukraine conflict is the only reason why Bitcoin is experiencing some market dump in price whereas the market is always volatile in nature and the market is already in the realm of high volatility in price before Russia and Ukraine issue happen.
Have you forgotten there always be both sides of price movement after the halving effect market before blood bath?

the bitcoin price is fluctuating normally, the war doesn't seem to be having a big impact on the bitcoin price, just seeing that the price is stagnant between $37000 to $44000, in my opinion people are worried about saving their life, the support that the international community is giving is support in material goods, and bitcoin is being used less in this situation so the price is not being affected, I heard about the donation of 37 million in bitcoin. but that's all I've read. I didn't see any other news in which it said that bitcoin is being useful in this time of war

Before making a point, you to do own research first. Look at gold price [1] it's decrease not increase. This mean Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat (Ruble) price is decrease because those asset are purposed to store a value and currency. If the war become bigger entire the world, those asset will become worthless since there's no demand about that. They're looking for foods and any other stuffs to survive during the war.

Why does Oil price increase? because anyone need oil for their vehicles, produce electricity etc.

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[1] https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

whether Bitcoin is affected, or OIL or even the Gold? still there are effect for the world and the crisis still on so best to dedicate our investment now in real business. i mean let our funds stays in crypto and some other funding go to real life like food businesses or some practical things that can make us earning while waiting .

The use-case of Bitcoin is more emphasized during times of war when banks are not functioning, ATMs not refilled with cash, streets abandoned, and people are evacuating. The transfer of wealth from one country to another is easiest with Bitcoin. You cannot easily cross international borders carrying with you a massive amount of cash. Not to mention that in times of war, the fiat currency of affected countries will fall because of the unstable economy and sanctions.

It might be that people who already invested in Bitcoin in the war-involved countries are selling because as you said, there is uncertainty in their minds about outcome of prices in future in this war, but I think Bitcoin is too big to be impacted by such and hence it is just following its usual trend which is bearish at the current moment, also, not everyone knows about Bitcoin in those countries so the volume of buying and selling of Bitcoin in there might be too small to make a significant impact!

I think it’s mostly seen as a higher risk asset like the stock market right now. It’s going to take time to become a better safe have asset. That being said, in years past bitcoin had been through much worst and things would have been much worse but I feel that things have stayed relatively stable all things considered.

Are you seriously asking why the oil price is going up?
There are concerns about Russia cutting the oil supply to Europe.Reduced supply+higher or static demand means a higher oil price.This is just law of supply and demand.Bitcoin has nothing to do with this.
The western investors might not like buying Bitcoins,because a big percentage of BTC miners are located in Russia and Kazakhstan,which means that Russia might try to crash the BTC price,by imposing a ban over the BTC miners.However,this is just a hypothesis.
Gold and commodities will beat BTC as a safe heaven assets and more speculative investors will forget about Bitcoin(for a while) and jump on the commodity markets.I hope that Bitcoin will start growing after the war is over.

So, everyone are saying that the war (political instability) are causing the drop in the price, but how do they explain the increase in demand for bitcoins by the Ukranians to protect their wealth from Banks and also Russian people trying to protect the value of their wealth against possible hyper inflation in the future?

I think a large amount of institutional investors got a bit trigger happy and they started a ripple in the pond... by dumping a lot of their coins in the early stages of this conflict between the Ukraine and Russia.  ::) 

They have been doing it. Trillions of dollars have already gone into going "green" but the problem is that these methods are not enough to provide the energy the world needs and worse thing is that many of these so called "green" methods are damaging the environment a lot.
The truth is that the world will continue relying on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future and whenever there is any kind of shortage, the prices will soar.

why focusing in the bat effect of the war when there are also good in effect ? because Nowadays I believe that Ukrainian and even Russian are protecting their funds inside crypto and surely they are buying Bitcoin as majority coin and the safest.

I'm not sure what is the main objective of people connecting the dropping of price in this War but i'm sure this has not really in big effect .

Yes, gold price is increasing and silver is also following the same pattern. However, it slightly differs from country to country. It also depends on the form of gold you have used and sold. If you had paper gold, you might have enjoyed the complete price without any making charges. However, if you had physical gold, making charges has been deducted from the final price. That's a common practice, at least in my country.

Bitcoin is definitely a good choice for the people affected by war! But considering its volatile nature and also limited acceptability is probably keeping the people away from it. Rather they are looking into gold and other metals for capital safeguard.

I think so, before the Ukraine vs Russia war bitcoin has experienced a downward trend since November, I believe that the war will not have much impact on cryptocurrencies, the thing that is more difficult than war is of course the pandemic period that makes many people go bankrupt but bitcoin's performance can skyrocket.

not unless the whole world will participate in this war? bitcoin will not be much affected of this war instead this is another opportunity for the Bull coming .
because Both countries before this war happens are considering to be inside crypto specially bitcoin so what can we expect from them both considering that they are now looking for the best way to save their funds while at war?
in the following days or weeks we will see this effect for sure.

I don't believe its because of war reason bitcoin fluctuate at the moment, and also gold and oil increased because investors jump in into it to take advantage the hype. Seems wrong!
Because smart investors don't based on the current situation of the market as it's all temporary situation only and despite its clearly that bitcoin still suffering from bearish because of some weak hands that keep selling.

And infact bitcoin nowadays is very useful for Ukrainians especially when it comes donations, So i dont think its a valid reason why bitcoin is making correction right now.

Yes, European countries even before the war had programs to switch from oil and gas consumption to renewable energy sources. This is primarily due to the need to take measures to prevent abrupt climate change. The current biggest war in Europe since World War II, in which Russia is trying to seize Ukrainian territory, should also change attitudes towards Russian oil and gas. Europe no longer wants to depend on the Russian energy market. So far, they are partially reoriented to other countries, such as Iran, Venezuela and others.

From this point of view, the largest Binance Exchange is currently donating to Ukraine, and this is a form of solidarity with Bitcoin. I think the current fluctuations are only because of the psychological war of investors who are unable to hold their assets any longer, or they have an analysis that prices will fall again due to the war that has not yet been resolved. therefore I think we must be smart investors in order to take advantage of the current opportunities

The price of gas and oil rose significantly a few months before the war, and gas still flows from Russia through Ukraine to the EU - which means the EU finances the war in some way, a bit paradoxical given all the sanctions it imposes on Russia, right?


Isn't Mr.Mars a big proponent of green energy and an opponent of fossil fuels? The hypocrite, who is calling out Bitcoin for dirty energy sources, is now afraid that he will run out of gas and oil - let him warm up on the batteries from his cars and make the world a greener place.

War effect between Ukraine and Russia have impact with gold and oil pump drastically and still can't make bitcoin could make new all time high price, I don't see almost one week with war invasion to Ukraine make positive or negative effect for bitcoin because still stuck above $40,000 and not really down for bitcoin price. Maybe if war can stopping have little possibility for bitcoin can reach to higher price and I think this war will running few weeks later look at moment not any negotiation between Russia and Ukraine government.

Yes, there are good effect between Russian and Ukraine by giving the people opportunity to invest their capital on crypto, so that even though the war take everything away from them, it will not make them feel so bad because of the future investment they have involved in the community. The big effect is about to happen to bitcoin investors in the community for those that invested a huge amount of money on bitcoin before the war or during the war between Ukraine and Russian to have something good to earn when the price hit higher in the market.

Bitcoin is fluctuating, there's no need to worry over that. It's currently at $42k, 8% up over 24 hours. Overall, I think it's doing well during the current war and I have no reason to believe it's going to change for the worse. Of course, Bitcoin can suffer from some panic and general uncertainty of investors in an unstable geopolitical situation, but this will be compensated by donations pouring into Ukraine in Bitcoin and, possibly, increased usage of cryptos in Russia amidst strict regulation of foreign fiat and a free fall of Russian fiat.

The effect of the war that occurred in ukraine made the price of gold and oil experience an increase in current prices, even gold has now reached a price of $ 2k / troy ounce, it seems that the increase was triggered by fear of investors so that they prefer gold as a safe haven for now compared to bitcoin , indeed at the beginning of the conflict the bitcoin price had increased to penetrate $45K but slowly the bitcoin price went back down and touched the price level of up to $35K, now it seems very difficult for us to predict what will happen to bitcoin next, whether the war will make bitcoin going up or down?

I must say bitcoin price has been plummeted when the war has started but after couple of days, its price and with the rest of altcoins has quickly ramped up and made the market starts to recover. But then again, prices drop again and then started to rise and then easily drop. I guess fluctuations also takes place along with the market trends and sentiments. With regards to oil and gold price increase, apparently those were mostly affected that made the people suffer from buying high priced oil in the market but benefits on the high appraisal on gold as an investment.

We've dropped back again on 38k but now the price had been staying on $42k as of this moment which i could say that it is really just a typical movement on the market despite on the war condition.

It is true that everything was really been affected because of the war but im not really that much convinced that it would surely give out effects on this market itself.
Well, we dont know on whats happening behind but with the level of volatility we are seeing are just those typical days.

This is what really causes panic, on the one hand some countries like the USA are ensuring their consumption through other oil producing countries, because if they want to isolate RUSSIAN oil from the world they do things that I never thought they would do, like asking for help from Venezuela, doing and recognizing the president of the country when they themselves said they did not recognize him, I think the war makes everything worthwhile, right? then as we see that everything intensifies we see that human behavior has no limits in order to satisfy their needs, this is something that can go against everything, their principles and even their own ethics, these are desperate behaviors given pro war.

Actually it is not mainly in crypto but instead the effect in everywhere specially In Oil , now my country suffers a lot as the price of Oil is now is almost doubled before the war happens and there is a hint that it may come higher in the following days as the war continues to happen.
while there are others that says this may bring good effect to  the crypto market yet we cannot even find this coming as of the price still in lowering today more than 2 weeks after that war.

Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating prior the Russia-Ukraine war. Somehow, bitcoin is impacted by it due to perhaps panic, but I believe it will eventually bounce back like it always does. Right now, what is really alarming is the oil price hike due to the conflict. The price of oil is largely affected since Russia supplies oil in most countries.

This is the ugly repercussion of a war especially if a country involved is the one who exports goods. Since Russia is sanctioned, they have said it in news even before that if that will continue, the price of oil will rise up so much. And true to their words, indeed, the price of oil is massively increasing as time passes by.

Here in our country, the price of oil almost hit twice its original price before the war. And maybe in the next few weeks it would even exceed the twice original price and hit triple. It's frustrating most especially to the working class because whenever oil price moves, everything follows. Transportation fees, price of goods such as raw materials and processed ones. Hopefully, the war will be over soon and everything will come to normal. It's just so hard to live nowadays because everything goes up, except the wage.

Bitcoin has even been a lot helpful to Ukraine at this time. A lot of people has been able to donate to Ukraine to help fund their military at this time of war and they were all able to do it through Bitcoin and also other means. I was reading the news the other day of how the Ukraine government has been able to make use of the crypto they have received to help their soldiers and provide them with most of the necessities.

So for the OP, saying that the war has caused bitcoin to decrease in value is totally wrong, I don’t think the decrease in Bitcoin price now would have anything to do with the war at all. Those in these countries would even find it better to invest in Bitcoin because their currencies might be losing value and bitcoin would be a better option for them to save the value.

Columns of Russian invaders do stop on the roads of Ukraine because of fuel problems, but these are problems of a different kind than the general shortage of diesel fuel or gasoline for military equipment in these countries. The Puutin regime hoped to stun Ukraine with a mass invasion of manpower and equipment from three sides and in six different directions at once. They did not provide for serious resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces, and even more so from the people, and therefore the attacking Russian columns had fuel supplies for three to four days, like the soldiers with dry rations. Therefore, the Russians faced a huge problem when they saw the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians, when their numerous columns of vehicles were simply burned along with a few fuel vehicles (already in the first days of the invasion, about 60 fuel vehicles were burned).
The Putin regime miscalculated that behind the attacking equipment there was no equipment with support. In fact, this is one of the reasons why the Russians got bogged down in this war and suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

The overall crypto market capitalization fell and even tends to sink, bitcoin being the biggest decline in market capitalization, as a result of Russia's intervention in Ukraine even though this conflict has been around for a long time and only now is experiencing something that has a direct impact.
investors seemed to ignore for a moment the sentiment of Russia's attack on Ukraine. they actually take advantage of the momentum by buying crypto at a correction price or the term buy on dip.

when the US president, Joe Biden, did not respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine with military action, only imposed economic sanctions, making the sentiment of market participants improve. Vladimir Putin said, Russia will not damage the world economy, Russia is still part of the world economy. We will not harm the world's economic system as long as we are a part of it.

With the actions of these two major countries, crypto assets that previously had fallen in trade, are now gradually recovering.
so it looks like bitcoin is only having an impact initially and is starting to accept the situation, so investors are not too scared off.