Bitcoin Forum

I'm guessing it will be late January or early February, and if I had to pick a day... January 29th.  Anyone else want to guess?  I'll send the winner 5 btc, tiebreaker goes to the first predictor of the winning day.

In b4 "never" - this is a thread for long-term bulls only! :)

EDIT: revised poll to add a "never" option for bears, though for obvious reasons, the contest can not be won by "never".

January the 23rd.

December 12th.  It'll probably drop back down shortly after.

Dec. 19

December 25th of course  ::)

December 16th

January 14th

January 13th  :D

December 15.

June 27th.

Sometimes 2013... that option isn't there so I did choose 'never'

january 21st.

you should specify the timezone so we know what day it falls under once it reaches $4.

Good point.  Might as well be GMT to be fair.

There is the "May or later" option.  

But you really don't think it will at least spike over $4 at some point in 2012?  I think there will be at least one tulip-style mania in 2012 for some reason or another, and it only takes one deep wallet to buy 50k btc and push the price to $4.

Crash near the NY, then break $4 in mid of January

$4 on January 5.1

December 21.

is that like, a stardate?

I don't think so. Reason is that for every person willing to buy 50k btc there are two who are willing to sell for 'acceptable' losses, those who bought in during the dip to 4.08.

Word.  Think about the guy with the massive wall at 2.90 that got sold into.  He's gonna be itching to get out soon likely, to rebuy lower or whatever.  He's probably just waiting for the right time. 

I am making a Captain's Log as we speak

Not necessarily. Some of us have already chosen the long strategy at this point and with that strategy one doesn't sell unless the price is massively higher or at risk to dropping massively lower. The guy at $2.9 could have potentially bought with a long strategy and won't be selling until there's either an imminent super crash or a price increase to double digits and beyond.

If he bought with a short term strategy, then you could obviously expect him to sell in the near future. But we can't really know for sure why he bought. Could be short, mid or long term strategy.

Yeah nobody can really know, if we did we wouldn't be speculating.  Time will tell I suppose.  As for me, I'm 25% in, which is mostly my earnings from bitcoinica anyway, so no big loss there. 

I'll take a shot - December 28th the $4.00 barrier will be briefly crossed before retrenching to around $3.25-$3.50 for a few months.


or something....

Personally I think the latter half of 2012.  People saying December need to wake up, it's taken a long time to get to where we are, will take a long time to build back up.

nah, just takes the next wave of investors!

What effect do you think the holidays will have end of this month on the price?

What really matters for the price is whether Keiser is successful in his 1 million bitcoin users campaign (and I suspect he will be).

Expect another bubble, everyone!  This time, you're the early adopters.   ;D

April the 1st lol ^^

January 2nd, I feel it in my bones.

Dec 13 or 14th ... depending on the time zone  :P

Feb 2nd 2012

 Bonus prediction of daily high of 4.14760
in case you put a second reward for guessing what it breaks 4.00 at. ;p

  Didn't they already charge Harding for conspiracy to break legs once already? ;p  *offers you a leg splint*

not fair, we're not supposed to compete with time-travelers...  :D

Jan 1

  Is it you that answered my ad next year?  :P
http://www.mopo.ca/uploaded_images/time-travel-want-advert-779905.jpg

As to your contest:


I pick   Monday    ;D


Since you didn't request a Date: but a Day

@BTC_Bear i think you will have to share the reward if it happens when you said so...  :D

I chose a Monday :(

I think, at the moment it happens, the day will be "today".

I think, on the day it happens, the price will surely reach above $4.

Your predictive powers are astounding, my dear sir.

How can you tell? You must be able to see quite accurately into the future.

I have empirical proof that truisms that are true now will also prove to be truisms that are true in the future. Proof by induction shows that if it held yesterday, and it holds today, it will hold in all of time.

According to the stats, seems after Feb.

"The stats" never lie.

Only if the groundhog sees his shadow.

  aye, that overgrown rat is gonna take one look at this crap and run right back in. =)

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly even reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in the $6-8 range.

That sounds pretty realistic, if all goes well. 

Agreed. When tulip time comes, sell 'em if you got 'em  :D

PROUDHON SAYS PRICE IS GOING UP! SKY IS FALLING

That was my optimistic prediction.  Wanna hear my realistic prediction?

Go right ahead...

Whats the realistic prediction?

We'll see a push well into $3 between now and January but won't break through into $4.  The price will stagnate around $3.5 or so and then will slowly creep back down to $3 where it'll hover for a while.  By, say, March we'll have seen another very sharp drop down to around $2.  There'll be a fight, but ultimately we'll fall further and by the end of the summer will have hit prices below $1.  I think from there to the end of 2012 we'll see the price bounce between $0.70 and $2.

So, plenty of opportunity for speculators, but also for accepting payments it's not too bad. Sounds good!

Jan 24th CET

Hehe. Well said. Keiser campaign will probably pick up in Jan, dunno exactly when ;)

Pres. Obama will declare National Bitcoin Day. Wow, that's good stuff Maynard!  ;D

hahaa!

I predict this will happen on May 10th 2011

Edit - please send my prize winnings to 1BTC1oo1J3MEt5SFj74ZBcF2Mk97Aah4ac

I see what you did there.

I probably used too big a word here: "campaign".

But he (and stacy) are "definitely going try to leverage [their] media space to try to get that number achieved.". That number being the 1 Million new bitcoin users in 2012. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFSbj-MidPw)

Haha I love that ad.  I actually grew up in Oakview CA and I really wish the area was as cool as you'd think it is.

Max's campaign to crash Goldman Sach's through purchasing silver to make the price skyrocket was a bit of a fizzler.  The price did rise in a bubble earlier this year, but just as quickly popped.  Goldman is still here.  I sold my stash of silver at a very handy profit.  I doubt I should be thanking Max for that.

Max's bitcoin campaign may be a little more successful, but hopefully it won't come across as a 'buy my bitcoins' campaign.

Looks like Goat won again. U are one lucky guessing SOB.

Um, and what about me?

I think you can send MY prize winnings to the address in my Sig.

yep, we have the winner...

edit: we're at Dec 20th by GMT (price chart (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv))

Was December 20 according to GMT. I think this is what was meant by the bet but you would have to wait for engineer to decide that for you.

Goat won my contest too.  Way to go! :D

Um, GMT should NOT be the standard.  Why would I, someone who uses US central time, make a guess based upon GMT?

There is no statement in the OP clarifying that it is according to GMT.  If that chart link was based on Central time, then it would be unfair for the guy guessing on GMT time.

I commented first, I won, please pay.

true  ::)

For a start the market opens and closes at 12GMT

Show me where that is implied in the OP and I will agree with you.

The bet was to make a guess what day the price would break $4, NOT what day according to GMT.

They asked why, I gave the reason. The other reason is you end up with 2 or more winners with different dates like we had happen. Let Old Engineer decide... not my battle.

I was about to ask why you were fighting it.

And, the "other reason" u mention doesn't exist because it states in the event of a tie-break it goes to the first guesser...which was me.

Where oh where are all the bears who have been bragging about being massively up on Bitcoinica?

Jumping out the 11th floor window, that's where.

That's quick.

DUMB BEARS GETTING SLAUGHTERED!

I do believe I chose a Monday.... If not Mistaken... Nope... I'm not.


                  1tabCzGVPEK6kCJpQhFKwpXcsdnhTXyY4


Thanks for the contest  ;D

Sorry the_joint, GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, per above, so goat is the winner. Congratulations, goat!!  Send me a bitcoin address either by PM on in this thread, and I'll send you your winnings.  BTC_bear - sorry, it crossed the threshold on Tuesday GMT.

Thanks all for participating!  I was kind of surprised that about 85% of guessers thought that the price would go from $3 to $4 in 3 months or less, which is an astounding 133% annual ROI.  And the majority was right, too, and I've done well with my long position, which I've half cashed out one on the way up.  And everyone that was shorting - HA HA HA!  Better luck next time. :)

We are above 4. Cheers  :)

whining, wining, or winning?  nah, you're not a whiner!

UM WTF?!?!

I call absolute bullshit. 

GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, but MY prediction was cast on Dec. 6th before that specification was made.

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

He wants his cake and he wants to eat it too! I like his new thread and the, "I never checked the thread again until after I discovered I won the contest." Too bad.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.

This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).

If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?

Whether it is a free contest or not is irrelevant.

The statistical nature of the game was slanted against me due to your "rule."

It was free but unfair.

Promises are "free" too...they don't cost a thing, but breaking them is dishonest.  Yes I do expect you to PM everyone to notify them of the rule change.   PhinneusGage apparently had no problem when I raised a legitimate concern that I may forget about the thread, and thus I should be notified personally when my donations are expected.  He seemed to think this was doable.  I think it's more stupid that GMT or UTC should be the deciding factor when individual time zones make more sense.  Apparently, people in this very thread seem to be at odds over which time zone would be most appropriate anyway...some say GMT, some say UTC, and others agree with me.  Given that anyone that makes the same guess (e.g. Dec. 20th) as someone else has their guess immediately nullified due to the "first guesser" rule, the implementation of your GMT rule MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ME TO WIN.

What if, after your GMT rule, I wanted to change my guess to Dec. 20th?  Well, I wouldn't be able to do that if Goat had already guessed it.  So, your rule made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

Excellent question.

No, that's why there is the "first guesser" clarification in the rules.  This point is irrelevant.  First guesser wins in the event of a tie (i.e. multiple winners, as was the case).

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.

The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.

I'm done arguing.

This is where you are wrong.  The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser.  This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player).  This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser."  First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative. 

jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?

As I clearly pointed out, it is about fairness.  Amount of winnings is irrelevant.

It is absolutely not about fairness, unless you define "fairness" as "the joint is right". Fair is doing something without bias, and if there's any biased party in this discussion it is indisputably the joint; goat would likewise not be a fair judge. As the person giving 5 (now 10) BTC away for nothing other than his good will, old_engineer is a far more impartial judge--unless you can prove that he actually knows goat and/or the joint.

Ok, old engineer,


  All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...

And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.  ;D

Incidentally, the forum post time stamps are in... you guessed it: UTC time.

How would you even objectively verify in what timezone that person is? Your interpretation of the rules is counter-intuitive, and unmanageable in practice.

10 btc sent - double stated contest amount - 'cause as I said, he mentioned orphans.  Verifiable here:
https://blockexplorer.com/address/1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq

The public blockchain sure does come in handy at times like this, great for transparency and there's no need to trust me or Goat (who is likely asleep, it being 2:30AM in Thailand).

It's not only manageable, it's quite easy.  

The GMT rule also changes how the "first guesser wins" rule plays out.  Before the GMT rule, the first guesser wins rule meant that you could vote the same date as somebody else.  After the GMT rule, the first guesser rule meant that you could not vote the same date as someone else.  

As for fairness: participants which made their guess before the clarification of the rules would have had an unfair advantage because they could plausibly claim to have guessed either one of two subsequent days (depending on their timezone).

Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?

I never called old engineer a scammer.  I said the statistics of the game were slanted, making it uneven and unfair.  I have no problem with oldengineer outside of this situation.

Ok, but at least you indicated it:

(emphasis mine)

Sorry if I misunderstood you - it was not my intention to put words in your mouth. You seemed to be concerned about general fairness, hence my honest question on whether you'd have acted the same if you'd have got the money.

From the other thread

<quote>I've talked internationally with many foreigners through chat, pm, IM, etc.

Never once has UTC ever come up.  It's more like, "What time is it where you live?"</quote>

Wow? Really.  I talk to people all the time around the world, usually limited to ten different time zones, and compete in competitions where all the times are UTC (which is the actual standard rather than GMT).  I have no idea what CST is nor would I ever need to.  Is that like pacific or mountain time or other versions I'd never use?

So, 10 p.m. CST, scraped in by 2 hours vs another guess in Thai local time that covered more of the day.  If I split hairs, one is more correct than the other.

Thanks Goat.

What?  If it had happened on the 19th then you still wouldn't have won? Or are you saying that it was impossible to have happened the day before?  Or was it impossible for you to unambiguously state your bet?

Personally, I don't think you know what "impossible" means.  Face it, your ambiguous bet was interpreted fairly.

Hey Ty Goat,

On the topic of timezones and Thailand, have you ever seen a six hour watch or clock (or gong) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-hour_clock)? I gave it an honest search in SE Asia but failed. I might exchange my left testicle for one.

    ... mong chao (Thai: ...โมงเช้า, [mōːŋ tɕʰáːw]) for the first half of daytime (07:00 to 12:59)

    Bai ... mong (บ่าย...โมง, [bàːj mōːŋ]) for the latter half of daytime (13:00 to 18:59)

    ... thum (...ทุ่ม, [tʰûm]) for the first half of nighttime (19:00 to 00:59)

    Ti ... (ตี..., [tīː]) for the latter half of nighttime (01:00 to 06:59)

Keep an ear out for it, people will refer to hours after morning or hours after lunch, etc. But I've never seen it written or on clocks or anything like that. I think it's basically a lost tradition. But the idea has fascinated me for a long time. I wanted to produce a clock with only one hand and thought there might be inspiration in Thailand. But nope, everyone I asked nodded and smiled then looked at me like I was crazy. :)

As to why? Why what?