Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone, in these days where everything is happening I'm wondering a few things and I would love to receive your opinion.

How the crypto market will be affected by:
 • Biden's new executive order, do you think that is going to pump the market these year?
 • The election of Yoon Suk-yeol in South Korea, after his election the ICX price hit $1 and I wondering if it's just the beginning of something bigger or if this is just 'case'
 • The Russian oligarchs that now their bank accounts are freezed, do you think they'll exchange their ruble with some crypto coins?

Thank you for your time.

Here's some general advice: if you're going to make investment decisions off specific events such as what you've listed — chances are, you're going to end up having a really bad time.

As for trading, while you sure can make quick trades over pumps/dumps, not because a certain news is bullish, it doesn't mean you're going to make money through an upwards price movement. A lot of times, if a certain news is bullish but everyone ended up expecting that certain good news, your long positions can end up in a very very bad situation.

The crypto market is a speculative market.

So with that news and any of the same, they really are going to affect the market through speculations. But about South Korea's election, I don't know if there's any real effect on it and ICX's price.

And for the Russian oligarchs, they are rich people that are wiser than us. They know what to do and they have already some plans and alternatives that have planned all along.

I do not know if this will affect crypto market but what we should look more into is that this period may not favour crypto, I am expecting the market to be bearish but it can be otherwise.

I will also advice you to just use the amount you can afford to lose for trading and investing in altcoins. If you want to hold for years, you can go for bitcoin, the price can decrease but later it will increase and you will make profit.

I will advice you not to really follow the fundamental analysis like that in crypto.

You would be mostly be fucked up if you are really always sticking with fundamentals and as mentioned that not all the times you would really be seeing that these sentiments or news would make out some corresponding
effect on the entire market and if you do make use of it as part of your analysis then it  would mostly ending up on disaster or lose of investment.So its still a personal choice whether you do apply it fully 100% on fundamental analysis or would still varying with some technicals or overall mixed up. So it would vary or depend.

Thank you for your advice, I often read about investing on alt coins, but I always end up with the same question: how to understand if an altcoin is valid? Are there other valid forums or websites where the main topic is trending on altcoin?

If you can answer me these questions I would really appreciate it!

---

I understand your point of view, thank you for the advice and your time!

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Not for the long term in my opinion. Once it hits the media and the buzz is created, the price will jump (perhaps a bit, perhaps a lot) but after some days or weeks, it will fade like any other "good" news about BTC. I think people are overestimating this new executive order.



And why should they do it? Do they really need to switch to an alternative currency? Yes, but does it mean it has to be a decentralized currency? Not really, they do have other alternatives and perhaps easier to use in their case. Secondly, in the situation in which the account is frozen, they'll unable to switch to something else. And finally, often they have not much in their name. It's often using the name of a family member, or a company. (It's called taxes optimization but some people call it taxes fraud)


I can't really comment about it because I don't know Yoon Suk-yeol or ICX but I checked the price on CMC, I see the price crashed to 0.80$. 20% compared to some days ago.

That's what I said earlier: once the news fades, the price does...

These world events can affect Bitcoin, but still depends on the reaction of investors with those news.

Look at the price of Bitcoin now, its down because US is planning to regulate Bitcoin which force this market to be more centralized if ever.

South Korea new president can’t affect much the price of Bitcoin, election is not a big deal what’s big deal here is that, what they will do after they elected?

Russian billionaires already into Bitcoin most probably, but still the market is down for some reason and we have to deal with it.

Don’t know if this is true but apparently there are reports that some rich Russian businessman are selling their crypto on some UAE exchange and it’s why there was a sell off recently.

Basically the complete opposite of what people wanted. It’s not good to let criminals get away with crime by using Bitcoin. It gives it a bad reputation and it’s what will lead to regulation which is what we don’t want.

Not in short term but in long term if it ends up with more government created centralized shitcoins then it can lead to more bitcoin adoption hence more bitcoin price rise.

This is literary the most random combination of events. A random (irrelevant) election, a random shitcoin, a random pump and dump.

Why should they? They knew how things are going to go and they first closed their foreign bank accounts as much as they could.

In paper this looks really good for crypto market, specially the Biden Executive Order. But if you look at it the price didn't move that much, indicating that it didn't have any effect on the price itself.

For the election of Yoon Suk-yeol, if he maintains S. Korean's pro crypto market, then it will be a welcoming news again.

For the Russian Oligarchs, I believed that they are already in crypto long time ago. Maybe some of their assets right now are just illiquid.

     You should understand that bitcoin as it is right now is still very vulnerable with news and economical events. So whenever some big news pops out of nowhere, the price really increses fast and continues or dumps depending on the significance of the news. But this doesn't mean that just about anyone who know about news can have profits. There still has to be at least basic knowledge about trading like some indicators, patterns, and support/resistances. Because news alone can fck you up since not all the time the market reacts with news the way you want it too or as big as you want it too.

I got you, thank you for your answer.
Have you any suggestions on where to check or learn how to use these indicators, patterns and support/resistance?

These aren't much of a consideration since Bitcoin holds speculative features. Regardless of what the author says, crypto does not move based on sentiment. Opinions are not dictated by an audience's best interests. This is why cryptocurrency's price is manipulated so much by these comments. The market will soar if peace reigns, but we need it as a whole.

All these factors you mentioned don't relate to bitcoin or cryptocurrency except for the last about Russian oligarchs but if Biden has made an executive order or not isn't about bitcoin. News likely to have a shake on bitcoin is adoption or legalizing bitcoin news. For now if the sanction of Russia regarding the oligarchs and there fiat assets maybe they may choose another means to keep there money away from US.

For the short term, I am still bearish with the crypto market right now, especially with the tension about Ukraine-Russia.

But I believe this Biden's new executive order is very huge for the crypto, it could affect the market a huge move.

With all this fundamental news, this is very huge if ever all of them are true but when I am looking at the technical analysis part, I'm somehow bearish.

Going to post an update to this.

This was confirmed to be mostly likely false by many people including some exchanges. Basically it was put out there just to get people scared and sell their coins most likely.

In the article they were claiming of selling $6B worth of Bitcoin, so if true would create a massive dump. However without a reliable source and the fact that why would you exchange safe assets for an asset that can be frozen like real estate, which doesn’t make sense at all. So we can all call it false news.

Maybe the executive order and the war news will just negate each other, that's why the price is still below $40k.

Of course fundamentals of bitcoin is going strong, we may seldom see some negative news about it. For traders it's about the technical aspect, we look for price swing and see how we can take advantage of it and make profits. But overall, the market is somewhat in the middle, investors are very reluctant, but at the same time just some small movement keeping the price in the middle.

     Hey there, I just re-read my post and it was so messy. Apologies for that. Im glad though that you are interested enough in learning that you endured reading through my post and understood it. Now as for where to learn these, there are books out there that teach it there are also good stuff on YouTube. You just need to put in effort to learn. Right here and now, I am telling you it will be boring as hell and you will be tempted to invest or gamble trade just by learning a few. You have to control that urge and only trade very small capital. Not for profits but for experience and learning. Then gradually increase trade size when you already have a trading plan, and are confident enough with your trading skills. You will lose money as you try to gain experience, but the difference is fhat you control how much you lose. Good luck op, I hope you succeed.

If there's relation with crypto on that executive order then provably we might a short term hype but don't expect to much on it since mostly bull trap happen on that events.



I don't primarily know about the happening on ICX but try to check also the development happen after that election since maybe there are contributing factors on their side that's why they pump that far.


Hard to say it is but there's a chance but most provably oligarch will go on gold since this is more secure to them.

Don't worry, thank you to keep answering me!
I've this video (https://youtu.be/mQvw5JXXnrQ) on YouTube, can I ask you to take a look and tell me if is something good to start learning?
I'm a person that isn't worried about the time for learning, because I understand that it's something that could help me somehow in my future, so if you have any other resources to share, even if they're boring, I would really love to take a look!

All those three are already priced in. What you need to realize in crypto world is that if there is a news about something "could happen in the future", that is already priced in after that news, not after it happens. Like when there was a halving, the price moved from 3k to 10k before the halving, it did turned to 20k later on during December, but that took months, during may to December it stayed at 10k.

This is what you are seeing, so the speculative part of the crypto world will never be at the moment it happens, it is beforehand and the legit tangible part of it will happen way later where people actually see the benefit of it, and that is only if they see it.

For me IMO opinion yes that new executive order will make an impact in the market because they want crypto on their banks so it means soon or later there will be a massive demand in the crypto ​market..

And about the ruble of russia, i think even they covert it to crypto they still cannot bypass the sanction because most platform are now freezing their acount as well.. So its impossible..

I think so too. EO meant there will be regulations although this will not be welcomed by most users who keep privacy, the ones who are new to crypto will likely want to join as regulations make the crypto environment safer. I think the EO will be more discussed in APRIL 6-9 Bitcoin 2022 | Miami Beach which is next month and I would expect some other politicians will be there to announce BTC legal tender.

Korea is about to choose a crypto-friendly president, the crypto community in the country will take it as a positive sign. It is also possible for Russian oligarchs to move to set aside some money into crypto.

IMO, it will affect the market but I would not get my hopes too high. Chances that this becomes a pump have a good chance but don't expect it to be long.
What comes up fast must come down the same way. So, if you are thinking about buying then you could do it now but be aware of the market and the news connected with it. Prepare the exit button because it's not a normal pump but was created by a hype of current events that will not stay.
i.e. Oligarchs selling back to Ruble after this ruckus is over. 

There's a big expectation on the Biden's executive order to make immediate impact on the market. To the expectation there is no big change in the market. The market continues to be bearish, and this executive order will surely have some positive movement on the market long term. The order has got seven key points among which two are for the consumer protection. He has also requested the digital assets platforms to function along with the government to rule out the usage of cryptocurrencies on illegal activities. These are to make long term benefits which will make slow and stabilized progress in the market.

You need to exercise extreme caution when trading the news, the few that are successful doing this still use TA heavily in their strategy and it is not difficult to understand why, even if you could tell accurately whether a news will affect the market and the direction the market will take, you have no way to know the magnitude and the duration of such movement, in order to get an idea of that you need TA, which explains why many traders that use TA do not bother with the news, as the price sooner or later will reflect the effects of those news on the markets anyway.

The wrong thing on here is that people do just directly assumed out that every news would really be having that immediate effect or instant without even considering or looking for long term which is

a must!Well, i could'nt really blame out people on having that kind of behavior since usually the market is really reacting neither on long term or in short term duration which is the norm.
So as an investor then you should really be that wise on making out decision on times like these.Neither it would be having effect or not would be always a question.

BTC wont succeed because of government decisions, best to judge some other factor first and foremost.   Politics is deceptive and quite often ironic, its probably the easiest thing to say because a central entity is unlikely to be the benefactor to a decentralized system.   It'd be best if governments didnt oppose various growth factors and innovation in an economy but we can hardly say Bitcoin prospects are worth judging off what a politician said or did even.    Someone went all the way to the extreme and said BTC being banned in a country made him more bullish at that point, I wouldnt go that far but it stands to reason they dont bother mentioning plenty of other ways to exchange value that could also be used.    
  The most legitimate way of judging alt coins is by usage, if you can mine it thats the most frequent way people used to get involved.  BTC is generally superior to most standards because its more secure, it takes alot to beat the headstart that BTC got.   If you havent got a reason to use a product besides speculation on its price, its best to avoid though some people love trading and dont mind about any other factors.

That's why it's very important to have a fundamental analysis (FA) while making your technical analysis (TA).  FA is a very important factor that could possibly have an effect on the market price.  Like what happened to this event now, the war between Russia and Ukraine was shaking the price of Bitcoin, you can't draw a conclusion for sure if you only have TA.

But sometimes, it's an unpredictable movement of Bitcoin even there's a world event it doesn't hurt too much the price.  For example the same as when the pandemic hit, it was affected by the start but after a week it was resisted and increased the price back.

that's why the winner in this matter are the Holders because the longer they Hold is the safer their funds are.

lets not take advantage of the possibilities of bumping and pumping because none of these are possible to come now.
Because the investors now knows how the market will move and what can be the possible outcome of each cases, so even this war? won't make this market dumped like what happened in pandemic time.

     I just finished checking it and the guy is legit. He has great content and the video itself is very informative. You should save it for reference in studying. It would also be a good decision to not stick to a single source and cooy his style or others. You need to find which trading style you are comfortable with because different traders have different trading styles in which they are comfortable with. Like which indicators to use, how many, which timeframes etc. One last advice I can give you is to train your self discipline, tame your emotions and your greed. Because all the knowledge are useless if you can't master these three. Good luck op.

I also think that Europe is now discussing about a potential of banning POW coins as well. It is bad for the environment according to them. The reality is that it is actually do hurt the world but the reality is that there are so many other things and they think they are legit and crypto is not and that's it.

Aviation industry itself is something that has been hurting the climate itself alone, and oil companies does as well, gas as well and yet all of them are seen as "needed" when the crypto is not seen like that and that is the problem we are having right now because we are not seen as needed.

I think that in Russia not only oligarchs will use cryptocurrencies, but also ordinary people who know how to use a smartphone. In Russia, any transactions in foreign currencies are now banned, so many people are already finding salvation in Stable Coins. I don't know about ICX, I don't follow this project, but I think it was a pump for the event. Now it is clearly seen that the price is falling.
Europe is no longer discussing banning POW, they have decided not to ban it.

 Maybe p2p could still be a thing there? I mean there must be some people with crypto who need cash, and some people with cash and want to protect their value and get crypto for it. Who knows what would happen, but the person who bought bitcoin right before these started, and now can sell it to p2p with a mark up, would be able to make so much money there. Iran famously had similar things and always had a bit higher than usual amount. I remember their ATH during 2017 was 24k for example, not insanely higher, but another %20 on top of the ATH is still not bad at all and could be leveraged in Russia now as well.

All these are fundamental that could help spice upward or doward of the price of Bitcoin but cannot change the overall direction hence may have effect on the price or may not.
The Executive order and the election in general still have their roles to play in the price of  Bitcoin

It seems that almost everything is interconnected with the flow of the market especially the crypto market. The way this crypto market move these days are unstable it doesn't look like some people are holding since the price keep changing to the point that it goes back and forth with the price of $38k to $40k and if OP is planning to invest, he might make a quick decision now since we never know when or what would going to happen in the market especially that we have are in a world crisis right now.

Well the effect seems stays shortly ? because now Bitcoin recovers back to 41k and i think have a chance to increase more?
though Biden's executive order shaken the market recently but yet the effect seems weak ?
or we are waiting for more feedbacks specially in crypto market and whales?

Anyway many events had been in the air for some time now and the effect really shows the volatility of the market.

At times I try to compare the two forms of market which we have, which are the forex market and the crypto market. I some how see that the way fundamental analysis affect the forex market is not really the way it does to the crypto market, though it has its impact for sure.

With the look of things and echoes of war and stuffs like that has filled the atmosphere the,  cannot really be predicted with a good direction of where it's going. The crash of ruble makes the outsiders to look at the people turning to the crypto community to reduce the losses coming from their own currency. If this was at the earlier stage of Bitcoin, then we will see a good turnup in the price of Bitcoin, but instead, we still see the up down movement of Bitcoin with no stabilized trend yet.

Jumping into the market without proper precaution will lead to something disastrous and going in with an amount that won't hurt when lost will be a helping edge for a new start.

These events will affect on either sides, it might be the good uptrend first then the other side becomes the reverse.

That is what they say that an e.o or executive order can lift the price upwards. I don't know what is the e.o all about but thanks for giving me a hint, I know that it has something to do with the regulation of the digital assets and that includes cryptos already?

But, I don't think all are in favor of strict regulations so I also don't think that the price can rise right after the bill has passed or maybe it can? as they can make crypto more legal and a country will now adopt it. Consumer being protected is no doubt a good thing though, this can make someone confident about cryptos knowing that crimes can now occur lesser or the money can now possibly be recovered once it got stolen by criminals.

But what will they do with their cash though if they can't used it? p2p might be a good option for them but if you have to think, if stores are close where do they going to spend their cash?

Maybe some will go and put everything they have in crypto and just enough cash in hand just in case and hopefully we can still go up to at least $50k so that it won't be a waste of time for them to have their wealth in crypto at this point.

Just like we shouldn't react too quickly whenever price goes down, we should also not react too harshly as soon as it goes up neither. We are talking about a situation where it is quite difficult for all of us to decide what will happen with crypto. I mean it doesn't mean that we should not be doing anything, of course react it in a way that you would be able to profit from it, but doesn't mean that we should be making a big deal out of it neither.

We need to learn how to make a good income from these type of moves, but if reacting to it right away as soon as it happens could lose you money, then maybe we should wait and see what happens first.

Three words to answer all of that. We don't know.

Are you a trader? If yes then you will be having a hard time getting profits if you are just basing your trades in the fundamentals or news. Instead on focusing on news, focus on the technical aspect of it. View the charts because it will help you more compare to news because a positive news doesn't mean the market will pump and vice versa. We've seen many good news already that doesn't have any impact in the market and we've seen bad news and no effect in the market.

Do DCA if you're unsure, though tbf we're all unsure so you'd probably either do that, not do it, or go for that 50/50 chance of losing your money. Honestly just spread your assets around to what you think would be affected by those specific events, though it being specific ig makes it hard to pinpoint exactly what to do in the long term, though shorting it should give you a chance of profiting well if you were able to read the market properly. Just do shorts if you're relying on events such as these to happen, speaking for the long term, you wouldn't really give a damn most of the time.

It will affect the market and possibly decrease the buying demand and increase selling demand. But the effect on you becomes worse if you will listen to these things. Perhaps, everything is heated at this time but if we manage to ignore this news and focus on what we do (trading) this never increases your worries.

FUDs are going to exist and we do have not to deal with them. The market will likely gain an uptrend momentum. Keeping optimistic will help you become strong and have the courage to hold.

I think a large and strong community makes the position of Bitcoin not too disturbed by any condition, even when a difficult time is a pandemic and makes many types of investments such as drop stocks, Bitcoin actually grows positively, the prohibition of many countries never hinders Bitcoin's performance due to proven real adoption beneficial.

He should just be prepared upon taking the risk. There's no assurance on how long he can take the market with those events that might come to affect his decision.
But if it's about bitcoin, why worry if it's been the market leader for so many years and even until now, we're all aware how high it can go in the next years. DCA is really the strategy that he needs to follow if he's too concern with those factors.

Making small adjustments is what you are trying to say. If you could make small adjustments daily on whatever the market is doing then you should be fine. If you go all-in as soon as you see an increase in price or a decrease, you will not be happy with the results. However, if you make small adjustments to it then you should be doing a lot better.

I personally believe that we will not make a big deal out of this, we will probably not go down a lot nor go up a lot, and that is why I try to make my adjustments (buy orders and sell orders) accordingly. If it goes to 38k I will buy some more, and even more at 35k, and a ton at 30k, that type of adjustments matter.

Well, Russia replaced USD with their Ruble itself so the value of USD is going to fall if more countries followed the same as Russia is going to do. Also now every government may decide about adding some cryptos into their reserves if USD falls further.

What do you mean by Russia replacing USD and using their Ruble. Do you mean for foreign transaction or as their reserve currency. I am confused with your statement. Their Ruble is going down in valuation and even before that they were hit by sanctions and other trade restrictions and they were struggling and these new restrictions will suffocate them for sure and how they are going to overcome these is a big question.

I do not invest in Bitcoin expecting other external factors as it is hard to understand how the market would behave during certain things, everyone is expecting inflation and how the market would be is still a mystery as some would book their profit in the cryptocurrency space to over come other loss and if that is the case the market would go down.

Basically western countries are buying oil from Russia with USD, now US announced sanction against Russia so Biden expected every country will stop importing from Russia but its not literally possible overnight means still EU depends on Oil from Russia and now they have only choice is to buy oil with Rubles which is going to make the Ruble stronger and USD weaker in the near future.

That is right move to do. US dollar should be weaker, as it is its real value must be lower than it is now. If US wont use money printer everytime financial crisis happens, there will be more believe in it. I dont believe in strong Ruble also. It is a talant to fuck up national currency that much. I am not a fan of EUR also. This artificial union will fall as soon as EU gets their asses burned by Ukraine-Russia war consequences, because everyone gonna solve only their own problems. All hail JPY.

Generally any government policies that affect the crypto market are only temporary, not long term. I remember well how China affected the market with FUD because of the ban they issued, but it was only temporary where the ATH happened months apart.

That's what I think about whatever problem is going on at the moment. The effect is only temporary because the government cannot control this free trade. Especially about bitcoin, it will be one of the good assets to have in any condition especially when inflation is everywhere. I only believe that FUD is only temporary which can be used more often by those who have other interests in crypto especially if they want to buy more assets cheaply.

And exactly after 2 weeks upon posting this thread, it seems that the market has turn into green, and now we just broke $44k. This is a great achievement amidst the negative thing that is happening around in Europe.

But we can't conclude in the events that the OP listed has something to do with the spike, maybe investors are just casting their money on the market because bitcoin and crypto are the best assets right now in this kind of very unstable situation. But we will see, everything looks positive, $45k will be the next target.

Definitely cryptocurrencies are going to be more popular among people because day by day they are losing trust on the banking system which will definitely have long term effect as well but it will be more gradual and also that is good for the bitcoin too. As of now people can store their assets into cryptocurrency but the volatility nature of it may be a restriction towards it.