Bitcoin Forum

On-chain data on glassnode shows:
Shocking bitcoin supply on centralized exchange, less and fewer bitcoins are stored and traded on CEX exchange.
The number of holders from 1-10 BTC has increased a lot (orange line) in the past 2 weeks.
The market has endured more than 4 months of decline, are we preparing for a new bullish season?
https://i.imgur.com/Lhl0dN7.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/34i7OxP.jpg

Chain analysis can only help us get a good grasp at how supply moves; but it doesn't give us a clear picture of the potential demand — which is what actually mostly matters when talking about markets. Can't really have accurate expectations with supply alone.

Data on chain shows us true, under tip of iceberg but it does not tell us when price will rise or fall. If we see on chain data, whales do see it and they even plan it to manipulate the market.

So if most of on chain analytics say price will rise soon, whales might hold it for a while to shake weak hands, impatient investors. When there is less potential sell pressure from such investors, whales will pull their triggers to help price to increase.

Price of Bitcoin will rise because it is future. It has changed the world and will change the world more. Fiat currencies will lose their purchasing power and force people to find better alternatives. Bitcoin will be one of best options for them.

The data is pretty obvious, more and more bitcoin enthusiast just wanted to hold and save and doesn't want to trade and they could be accmulating at this time period. But it doesn't mean it's a bullish sign, on a contrary it could be bearish as there is no movement whatsoever and just preparing for a long crypto winter by holding their bitcoins.

I think the growth in the number of wallets with a small number of bitcoins suggests that their owners expect bitcoin to grow in the future, but it does not suggest that bitcoin will start growing any time soon. I also think that this analysis does not suggest that such wallets can be a split of larger amounts. I like glassnode's analytics, but it's aimed at the long term. For example they have been mentioning wallet growth for a long time, both during bitcoin's rise and during the fall.

The upside potential is always there, and we only need a short time to see more massive growth. So do not be surprised if the Bullish season is now happening again. However, it is not entirely certain. Due to several other potentials, it is easy to try to manipulate the price. As with other factors where adoption is now coming, starting from Ukraine which has opened up space for crypto, especially Bitcoin, then US policies which he says will not complicate crypto policy at the time of the economic court parliament.

Data is inconclusive, we may have the same data in a bull run just like last year and it seems to reappear again. The only hint is that (a) the increased is due to investors buying cheap bitcoin and then not selling them short term (b) speculators buying them at cheap price and then selling them when the opportunity to make quick money is there, i.e buying at $30k level and then selling them at. $45k.

The data can always be interpreted in multiple ways as we do not know the reason why people are deciding to hold their coins on their own wallets, as you state they could just be preparing themselves for a crypto winter and they do not see the point of using exchanges, they could be preparing themselves for a bull run and they just wanted to hold their coins, or maybe they were just Russian traders that were afraid their accounts will get confiscated and decided to get away from exchanges for the time being.

The data seems showing that long term investor still didn't dump their bitcoin, and perhaps that orange line is the proof that they still keep adding more when the price of bitcoin is going down because TBH the data of shorterm is really bearish but when it comes long term it seems there's no changes despite of the situation and still showing a good trend.

So IMO probably not yet, i mean we need to analyse the market more especially in different frames to see the real potential of bitcoin this year.  And that first image isn't a strong evidence as long as there's no sign in short term as well. Just saying

Right now all eyes are mostly on the stock indices. What the stock market does crypto will follow. So the question is what is the stock market looking at right now.

It’s mostly CPI and fed rate increases. So far we had our first increase and the market finished bullish. This is generally bad for markets but since it wasn’t 50bps the markets responded well. So we need to look into future prints. If there are any surprises it can crash the markets.

Second is the CPI. If we get a bad figure for April like 10% then many will invest in assets like Gold or Bitcoin as we have seen in the past. However keep in mind that the way this is going it looks like we might get a recession soon.

^^ And also history shows that April is an ugly month for Bitcoin so I don't see any bullish momentum despite the data that is being presented here.

On the other hand, as you have said, crypto most of the time follow stock movement. And stock is not doing very well as well, indicating that we might be in the bearish trend as we enter next month or even the rest of the year.

Of course if we are in a bearish season, the next thing to happen is a bullish season. It is this simple cycle that rules the crypto market and other markets. But is there any more space for further decline in prices? Yes, there is. The price has been rising and falling in $40,000. There is like a volleyball happening right now and $40,000 is the net. Sometimes the price crosses above, sometimes it goes down lower.

The supply decline in centralized exchanges could simply suggest the withdrawal of many from the wrong storage. That's been strongly suggested recently.

4 months of declined ? I'm not sure if this is true because we even have increasing in December but of course lower than what November bring as it is ATH .

But looking for another Bullrun>? or Bullish season is not yet confirmed because what we have to do is to be ready to what will come here.

but I must be relieve because I hold my coins now and maybe for long term perhaps.

I remember in the last 6 months hearing news like that several times just before the price dropped.   


Sure, that's the problem with taking a single statistic as the sole factor in determining price increase or decrease.


Good analysis. While we can never know for sure, I think you and I agree that it is quite unlikely that we will go over $69K this cycle. I remember after the January 2018 price drop that there was a lot of analysis justifying why the Bitcoin price was going to rise again and surpass $20K, which was true, but 4 years later. The current situation looks like the same thing. We will surpass $70K but around 2025 unless we have some very bullish events for Bitcoin before then, like some major country implementing El Salvador type legislation or the world's largest capitalization companies announcing they are buying Bitcoin for their reserves.

These news have to be analyzed together with another indicators. It might be that people are gathering their BTC on exchanges in order to dump them. And once the price started to move down another people that hold  their crypto on exchanges may consider selling their coins. Have no idea why someone may consider growing amount of holders on centralized exchanges as a positive sign.



So you wanna say crypto got seasonality? :D

That is normal cycle for people who do trades for short term especially huge whales who want to have quick profit from small movements that's why we need to be vigilant especially if we are not a whale since some movements can be consider as bull trap so better be aware on some manipulative tricks made by whales and mainstream to avoid being a bag holder.

That is something people could only understand when they have been in crypto for a long enough time. These huge movements people predict, or even see ends up being a regular Tuesday for all of us. Ignore all of it and you will be able to see the long term and how impactful bitcoin could be to our regular lives.

I personally believe that we should not be shocked at the current situation, it is something that is a bit more careful and a bit more profitable in the long run for sure. If you want to invest into crypto, you gotta accept that there will be moments when you can be 10x and there will be moments where it will be 50% down as well, just carry on like nothing happened and do not be shocked.

Many are just holding Bitcoin right now hoping for the price to rise again, that’s a good chart but still not a guarantee for a bigger rise in the coming days, still need a good confirmation. The market is on a big green candles today, hoping that this is the start of a great recovery so we can see more green candles, this should be the next cycle, its about time to rise and hope that Bitcoin will lead us to that.

The price has stayed up for this week and I think that can be positive for recovery but that will also depend on the closing for the month which is the ending of the first quarter. Today has more promising that maybe $40,000 may be the the support level and now we can look forward for $45k by the next week.

 BTC does appear bullish but it also has to develop to really move as much as people are hoping.   I do think we can move on from the range we saw this year so far.  Just the last few days again its been building and moving past the 50 day average.  When we close this weekly bar now and its positive that will help build the larger case.
  My take for now is we have to do battle around the 200 day average and similar longer term pricing, thats not that far away so dont expect too much too soon and we'll be ok.   We've risen enough now that the speculators who borrow to do so will sell into any weakness, so it will take time imo.

I believe that this is one of the reasons why we keep bouncing and these past few weeks we really don't dump hard just like before when the market cap of Bitcoin is very low or when the price of Bitcoin is still below $20,000. The market now is really different, I am glad about it.

I believe most of people now are being introduced with Bitcoin because of inflation right now on fiats, and you will see that most of people are intended to hold it off exchanges and this is very good news.

Today Market Rising Again and has reached $ 41800, making me optimistic that Bull Run immediately happens, we still have the opportunity to profit if you buy immediately, I'm sure the month of March will touch $ 50k again and April or May will reach New ATH. Focus Buy, and Hold will make us happy.

I don't think the price of this bitcoin will go down anymore, it will go up now. Because you notice that in the last few months, there have been many attempts to reduce the price, but the investor has not allowed the reduction. It dropped to a low of 35K$ but rose again. This means that the demand has increased. So I hope its price will go up soon and not likely to go down.

It is actually glad to see the market continue to improve and a part of this to see changes in the market trend. We usually think about history repeats itself, thinking that what happened 10 years ago will happen again someday. However, the market doesn't look like any of those in the past, it is really different by now.

And there is also one thing I've noticed to the investors, they are quite learned how to control their emotions. Holding seems to see during the crisis and even the ATH, we never see huge selling volume which is an indication that people are really serious preparing for the future, likely aiming for the long-term.

The data he mentioned above shows that people hoard rather than dump. The market seems to be moving in an uptrend, I'm not sure if it's because news from Ukraine's decision to legalize cryptocurrencies has affected the market. After months of decline, we are hoping for a bullish season once again.
I don't think it will spike to 60k in the short term and hit new ATHs this year, nothing can be confirmed as such. I expect a price of 50k for this bull run.

We are definitely in a different environment than 4-5 years ago, because large amounts of BTC ended up in the possession of institutional investors, and they mostly bet in the long run and have credit for some claiming that there is less liquidity on crypto exchanges. Yet this is far from any serious shortage that would arise if some big investor wanted to buy some larger amount of BTC and the market could not meet his demand. If we know that there is an OTC market as well, then we probably have several million BTCs on sale at any given time.


It would be more accurate to say that many people have heard of Bitcoin, but are not too interested in such investments. One of the reasons is that negative stories about Bitcoin being harmful to the environment are constantly circulating in the media, not to mention how Bitcoin, without any concrete evidence, is often put on a par with crime and terrorism. The average person still trusts the mainstream media and politicians more than some random guy who writes or talks about Bitcoin online.

When it comes to inflation, people are faced with a lack of money for basic necessities, so the question is whether they have any money at all for any investment.

Yup. I know I can't be the only one sometimes forced to dig into Bitcoin we score we'd never touch so soon (happily for me, have been also fortunate enough to take advantage of unexpected dip opportunities to even it out. I never really bought the theory that inflation and recession leads the regular guy to get further exposure to Bitcoin. Doesn't make sense to take on more risk when you need to keep your gas running.


You the kind of guy who feels optimistic with this kind of rise? Dread to think what kind of dark thoughts you get when the market slips 5% or more -- since it happens pretty much more often that I get the chance to get a full 8 hours' sleep ;)

Opportunity to profit is also rather persistent, though, am sure the silent scalpers would agree.

We shouldn't just look at the per month movement, April historically shows that it's not the best, with tax filing around every country. So just be careful with your prediction as it doesn't make sense to say that it will skyrocket like 2021 because it won't as we are in the bear market already. I know what you feel, we all wanted to see the bull run continue but in this market, it's not always like that, there are 2 opposite side, the bear and bull, and so far, I think we are in a bear market already.

I never liked speculating price by looking at what is happening on chain because I don't find a strong relationship between the two. For example take this line you posted here. The main reason why supply on centralized exchanges go down (or up) is how volatile the price is.

What is the "supply on centralized exchange" anyways? Is it not the bitcoins that users deposit on exchanges? Why do people make such deposits? To trade with. They do that when price is making big moves. For example one trader may sell after a big rise to buy back after the small correction, etc. But when price becomes more stable or market becomes less predictable, the traders tend to stay away from the market because it becomes harder to make profit. That means they withdraw the coins they had on exchanges and "supply on centralized exchange" goes down.

You can't predict the market this way because it shows what happened so far not what is going to happen.

For those who know how to assess the situation a little better, key decisions are made long before prices skyrocket, not after we find ourselves in the midst of inflation and war. People will say that it is impossible to estimate when such things will happen, but the consequences of the pandemic simply had to surface and there is no more hiding than the fact that ordinary people will have to pay for everything politicians did during that time.

I doubted that the four-year cycle would continue and I decided to take a share of the profits on the last ATH which now turned out to be completely correct. I now use that money for all those things that I would not otherwise be able to buy from my regular income. Although I know the potential of Bitcoin, I can hardly decide on such an investment at the moment - I just don't have the cash I don't need at the moment.

This graphic only shows us that less traders/investors will keep their coins in the centralized custodial exchanges.This is a good signal,but it doesn't necessarily mean that the Bitcoin price(and altcoin prices) will hit the moon.
It means that the centralized exchanges are slowly becoming obsolete,in terms of supporting the global cryptocurrency adoption.More cryptocurrency users will keep their coins in their cold wallets,which is the core principle of cryptocurrencies."not your keys,not your coins"
Anyway,like other forum members have said-The price can't grow without growth of the demand.
We don't see any kind of growth in the demand for BTC/altcoins.Maybe it's too early to expect such growth.

The price has risen but that's not an indication that we're already bullish, or did we really got into the bearish market? Long term holders who have been holding under $20k and $10k will say that there's no bearish market that came to the market when the bull run started on 2020.

Or if there is, then those were the usual plummets/corrections that really has to happen when it pumped that much.

Think of it before buying, if you think that the price is lower this time and you don't mind holding for quite a long time, yeah good time to buy.

What are those attempts? Are they the fuds, the bad news, etc but they are successful because the price has decreased last time but now we can see it's recovering again although we should not celebrate just yet. An increase doesn't mean it will continue because the market is still unpredictable and anything can happen, we don't know maybe next day the price will nose dive again.

You as an investor, even if you don't allow the price to go down and you don't support selling, there will be someone that will oppose and the price will still go down but you should not follow the flow. If you are more faithful on hodling you can carry on because you know that long term hodling gives you a better return.

Maybe let's prepare for the worst as we cannot assure that we already see the dip, there's a possibility that bitcoin will continue to dump and will cause another panic. It's safe to expect that after the bear market, we will expect a new bullish season.

Also, my basis is the history of crypto and at this point of view, it seems like I already see this kind of scenario in the past.

Russia is also considering adopting crypto specially Bitcoin so with Ukraine and Russia At war are now together wanting this adoption to happen?

So why does people need to believe in this system?

Spiking to 60k this soon wont happen but with this whole year? i  believe there is possibilities .

I was still optimistic about the market even seeing it hard to rally but I wasn't thinking it creates a huge dump.
However, I don't weigh much and rely on history repeating itself, it sometimes happens but often is not. Bitcoin will absolutely rise but we never know when. Bitcoin price keeps it level from $38k - $42k for almost 3 months which is literally not bad. If this still is going to happen the next quarter, I could say that can't see ATH this year, we'd rather see more on corrections.

@Marvell1 from the data you show, maybe I don't argue, I roughly see the various speculations in the news, maybe it can't be separated from the CEX exchange, Kucoin and also several other exchanges.

I think what @Ratimov said there is a bit of consideration for Bitcoin ATH just finished, I think even though Bitcoin is experiencing a decline, This does not mean that Bitcoin will soon rise to a higher level than ATH that has ever happened, I actually think Bitcoin will increase in the next 2-3 years.

Maybe that's what's on my mind apart from analysis, predictions, charts and also circulating supply.

thank you for providing important information about Bitcoin, if it is true that the Glassnode indicator is correct,
and Bitcoin will experience a Pump again, it seems sideways this time it is a good thing to buy some Bitcoin to hold, I often read on glassnode, but not all of them can read,
and I am very lucky to have this information, technically analysis Bitcoin has also broken out of $40000, and there is an opportunity to go up and return to $50000, hopefully

Price fluctuations are dynamics that must always be present in bitcoin trading, of course. But most importantly right now I think bitcoin can still hold above $40K after dropping to $35K (more or less) on February 24th.

Today bitcoin is still recorded to have lost 40% of its price since the last ATH, meaning we are still in a bearish period since November 2021 until now although there have been several attempts for recovery. There is a possibility that the price could fall further if the demand in the market falls, and that will be an important factor for bitcoin.

This might not be a useful news to short term holders and the on-chain chat is also not enough technical tool to establish any investment advice. It takes a confluence of atlas two market analytical tool to point towards a particular direction for an investor to make an investment decision. There might be indication for a rise in bitcoin price but i don't see it happen anytime soon

From what I read, it will not be like El Salvador where they will make bitcoin a legal tender, it will probably not be something close to that. I believe that they will probably find a way to get it accepted everywhere that wants it, and put a good legal groundwork for that as well.

People could still decline to use it if they want to, that is the difference between legal tender because in El Salvador, when you turn that to legal tender, it is legally mandated to offer that option as well, it would be like not accepting dollars in the USA, Russia will probably not go that route. But they will put some laws that will allow everyone who wants to use it to easily do it.

 I do believe that it could reach a level where it may become legal tender eventually but it is a risky move for Russia. Why? Because if they do it, then they would allow their citizens to both accept bitcoin as legal tender, but they would be also able to go around all the sanctions and start to slowly recover from this crisis they are in. Considering energy is something the world needs very much, they already hold so much power and combining that with crypto would be great for everyone in Russia.

 However, we all know that Putin is a dictator, so for them to actually reach a place where they allow citizens to use something decentralized, then how could Putin control everyone? He would have a hard time and people would be freer. Freedom is not something a dictator can offer you, he would want you to get worse and worse and less freedom so that he could control you. So it is a double-edged sword.

But it will be just half-baked if they will go to that route, for me it's better to make it legal tender or not, no middle ground for the Russians and their government. Their money doesn't worth anything inside and outside and the only way they will get value on it if they turn into bitcoin to hedge it. So there could be possibility that the government might consider 100% make it legal to help their constituents to survived in this war.

Ohh I see, I have not come across that legalities but at least we are looking for something like acceptance and with that Bitcoin using will not be illegal again and this is a good start for another countries trying to get closer crypto.
Even if it is mandated still it is not Obligated for the people of EL Salvador to use bitcoin meaning what would be the difference between what EL Salvador has or if what Russia and Ukraine wont happen.

This in my opinion is very contradictory, because the price of BTC is not only going up or down "not pessimistic" but this is a very definite step. even today the BTC price looks like a very slow FIAT price movement.
if considered as an iceberg phenomenon, it can be considered possible, but many influences and reasons, even traders generally analyze prices only by chain analysis which is considered the easiest to ignore the world's economic and political interests. because this only affects the price in the figure of 1 to 10%.
Optimism will arise when the easy way will yield current profits.

I can't tell exactly what would be the price after this slight pump today since it looks like $40k is the new resistance but the question now is... What would be the peak of this? I'm not sure if the rumored $100k is true but whatever it comes or the price result we should always be prepared just in case if it is a bull trap. Always make a decision that serves as the best as we can and don't get lost with the market movement since it's always unpredictable.

If I look at your data it looks like yes, we are ready for next Bullish period, I hope so, it's been too painful to walk in Bearish for some time.
But I feel that the issue of war and the issue of the American economy is still haunting our journey, I mean they could create dramas and make this initial Bullish wind fail to continue, I am afraid of that.

You don't have to be afraid because there is a possibility that the bulls will come back to the market this year. Coin prices in the market are also starting to increase, although not significantly, but bulls could come back shortly if the situation is like this. War problems and economic problems may continue, but that doesn't make the crypto market fall, but people will switch to crypto, and if that happens, the adoption process will be bigger. There will be more people who start adopting crypto and stick with fiat to make transactions.

During the past years a great deal of coins have gone from the hands of enthusiasts that could be easily scared about the movements in the price of bitcoin to people that are more determined to hold their coins for the long term. This partially explains why the volatility in the price of bitcoin has gone down a little bit and why despite the crash that we saw from its ATH things did not got as bad as they did at the end of 2017 so I think that what we are seeing about the drop in the amount of coins that exchanges are holding can be attributed to this fact as well.

When you called HOLDER do they really bought Bitcoin to Keep for long or just waiting for the timing to sell out? because if this is what the intention behind those increase then i believe that this is not worth to tackle.
as in the end they are also a Buy and Sell account and not here to trust and use crypto .

To be honest, probably every investor who has ever bought Bitcoin has also some plan to "cash out" at some point, meaning they will liquidated their coins at some point and move on to something else or wait for the market price to fall enough to re-buy. There is nothing wrong with that , especially when you think about the long term, as long as you re-buy in good timing!
Also, it's really a big misunderstanding, especially with newbies, that some HODLER won't sell for the long-term and will keep holding for the entire lifespan. Well, in reality that's not what happens.

Of course, sooner or later, those holders are going to cash out specially if they have profited that big already. But it takes years though, not months to become a HODLER and it's very tough for the majority of us.

As for the discussion whether the price will rise or not, short term, it seems that we are increasing by the day but we want the price to go as high $50k and see how it goes. If we touch another all time high again, this will be the first as we thought that we are already in a bearish cycle.

The price of bitcoin has continued to hover in recent weeks and is still holding above $40k, this week's price gains extending a surge after the Federal Reserve's announcement that it would raise interest rates for the first time in three years. so in the future it is likely that many investors will start to adopt it again after some time ago the price of bitcoin fell sharply.

For adopting Bitcoin, encourage from government can help a lot. Investment on Bitcoin is profitable and it has a bright future. If we adopt Bitcoin and use for regular basis then price of Bitcoin will be rising continuously.

Yes,Bitcoin will rise again.Bitcoin price is continue rising. Previous week bitcoin price was Around $42k+ but This week bitcoin price average $47k+.I hope bitcoin price will more increase end of march.Previous year same bitcoin price touched $68k+.I hope this year bitcoin price will be reached $70k+.

We did rise to $48k++ but it seems that the price goes down a bit in the last 24 hours, registering around $47,200. But still a good price if we are going to look at the history. Because since the all time high in November, the price has suffered a lot.

But it is still a long way to go before we can hit $60k or higher again. We may have to face another strong resistance at $50k, so that is the price the we need to look at before looking for any higher prices in the future.

It seems the bulls have exhausted their energy already and now the price is at 46k, now this is not a bad level to be in as we are close enough to the 50k level that we could begin to see the bulls attacking it during the whole month of April and eventually surpassing it as we break through the resistance of the bears, but it is not going to be easy to do as the 50k resistance is proving to be even more difficult than we thought, so it is possible we may even have to wait until May to see bitcoin surpassing the 50k psychological barrier.

i think we are getting out of bearish market gradually, Bitcoin price is stabilize this time and i might say that one of the concerns or reasons while bitcoin is been stagnant and fluctuating is because of the war that occur, no more investors that's is coming in the market that will bump the market, rising is determine by the market supply and demand which no one knows when it can happen, so the turn of investors skyrocket the price

The little rise now in bitcoin may be explained to be the consideration that some countries are trying to use bitcoin as legal. No doubt now the bear is going away and bull is waking up and maybe in next few weeks, the price can keep increasing. Many other countries are looking the way of bitcoin for the country and this helping the possibility of it adoption.

Well, the chart indicates something that might happen someday however, we can't be 100% sure about it. Yes, we can assume a market surge and a new ATH. Perhaps, the market is slowly moving upward, and it looks like we are moving now to the bullish side. Actually, I could really feel it as the market sentiment showed such a continuous increase compared to last week.

I guess we think have to miss buying this time as bullish will never tell us when it comes.

Whatever happens Bitcoin will always rise and that is written in the history for more than 12 years now, from the year it was created and released till this very moment  Bitcoin increased completely so yes we will be seeing Bitcoin rising in the next years  but if you will tell us that this will come very soon? and will break the ATH last November ? then I won't buy that belief.
there are increasing of 1-10 bitcoin holder but what can you see? what it can give?
lets see if the price grows as expected if that will come but for now? lets forget that thought and just keep Holding or at least help bitcoin to circulate .

We can really say to it that whatever bad news happen and how big the crisis hit to the market bitcoin are still there survive, it will save a country just like Russia since it has no boundaries also its uncontrollable by any other government entities. So for this we can assure to see more price up as bitcoin got only limited supply and imagine if 1st world countries together with almost all of the country will make this legal for sure the demand will rise and supply will lessen so its obvious to say that it will pump and might the $1m speculated will happen in future.

While most of us are asking for the Bull running , yet we cannot be certain that Bear really gone now because no matter how we look at this situation yet the increase will come when the demand and use increase as well but until now we are only in speculative position that at a chance the value of Bitcoin at least break 50k and then 60k once more as I am one of those who are seeking for this to happen and I know it may take years again but I am not losing hope this time.

Price is going down a bit in the last 2 days. Now we enter the $44k price, so we are in a situation wherein we are still in the middle ground as we don't know if we are in a bull run or if this is a fake breakout. Or perhaps the bears is still in the market and just waiting for the right time and then make a sell to put pressure on the market again. $50k is no longer viable because as I have mentioned the price is slowly losing it's strength.

Sometimes the best thing we can do is to let the market do its thing, at this point it may seem as if the bulls are back but the strength they have behind them is still on the low side, which means that whether or not we are in a bull market is still not a certainty, so things could always take a turn for the worse and the price could begin to go down once again and we could face a correction, and when we take into account external factors which have nothing to do with the market then predicting the short term tendencies of bitcoin becomes even more difficult.

I believe that its neither a bull run, nor a breakout. I mean we could have a situation where bitcoin goes up without calling it a bull run, it is just going up. Do you call a 3% increase a breakout? or a bull run? You don't, none of us do, but after it becomes like 10% some people start to call it, and after 20%+ many people start to call it.

I believe bull run starts after 50% increase and we did not reached that level at all. Which means that we shouldn't be calling it a bull run at all. We should be calling it a regular increase that happened and now it is over and maybe we will have another regular increase or maybe we won't, that's all we can call this one.

 I do agree with you. We do not live in a big enough period where the increase was substantial, the highest we had was from 42k to 48k, which is awesome and I loved it but I can't say that it was a "bull run", if the starting point was 38k, then reached to 48k I could maaaybe say its a start of a bull run but it stopped there as well so it wasn't really a bull run. This is why its obvious that people just got hyped a lot. I mean I can't really blame them neither, we are talking about something that is literally a common thing in crypto, we could have reached 48k and then kept going and do like a %100 increase overall, reach 80k+ prices. We didn't, but we could have because thats what crypto does time to time and people expected the same.

it is indeed that we must let the market do its thing but also the market is US, remember that there will no action or movement without our contribution , the market alone is nothing if Investors and users like us will not participate in that occasion so yes , let us do the market its thing but we must also do our thing and for what? that is to Buy or sell in this the movement will continue as the main objective of this creation is to help the transacting people and not those who only wanted to Hold and maintain the coin in their pocket.

The shared graph above shows how we cans till prove that this is still Bull market and yes I am certain in this because we can see that aside from going other side yet the price is consistently recovering to show us on top .
while this is still Bully but what i believe is that correction had already come several times before so why assume that there will another when what we are seeing now is the consistency of the prices.
What i do believe is that OP is not into short term tendencies instead long term as rising is on the next level and we are only waiting for some added boosting .

There is almost no bear market rally left on the stock exchange market. As much as I'd like to be optimistic, I'm not. It's true that some people will again complain that bitcoin has nothing to do with stocks, but they follow each other. Yes, this quarter should be fascinating to watch. It's not just about making money on the way up, you can also make money on your way down. That's all I'm saying. Support has been tested for quite some time. If it doesn't move soon, it will lose it.  It's probably safe that we have a bit of resistance. The only way to blow through that is with a surge in volume.

Today the market looks stable and the price movement is only around 2%, unfortunately my prediction was wrong because I believe that the april price is already above $50k, even though the price is still $43k but i'm still optimistic that april can hit $50k.

lets not look in just for the day , instead what we must look at is the whole quarter effect because this is what we should take in seriously mate.
there are something we must understand as the value of bitcoin may go up and down but the long term effect is the reason why people are trusting bitcoin.
What would be the concern of Stock exchange market if we are in crypto forum? please try not to relate the stock exchange in crypto trading because it is in different areas .

The price has now started to fall. If the price drops below 42k, we will have to wait for bitcoin to find new support. If next week is a red week, we can expect the price to be around 38k or lower. But I am hoping for positives and for bitcoin to bounce back from 43k.

Indeed, the market looks stable, but who knows what will happen in the next few hours. We all want to see bitcoin back to $50k and even more, but we can all be patient and wait because the price is still below $50k, and there is no sign of a significant increase yet. But indeed, the current bitcoin price tends to stay at the level of $43k, and the price doesn't drop too much because if you look at the previous increase, it has gone down deep. But if we talk about the long term, bitcoin still has a chance to return to a higher price. So we have to be patient for a moment and enjoy this moment.

$50,000 will have to wait, there is no strength in volumes and we have seen the price going down to $43,000. The good thing is that it is holding, but we don't know for how long specially that the traders are somewhat exhausted. So we will see in the next two weeks, we need to get to at least $48,000 again in order to continue our bullish momentum otherwise the price will be stagnated to $40,000 or less.

Trend over months is good I agree but consider YTD for some direction on BTC rising now.    The price BTC is at right now is the place where weekly bars closed below for almost all this year upto a few weeks ago.   So do we cross that line and lose that gained ground or find it as a low price to ascend from going forward from now.
   Seems we have a pivotal area to observe, about 42349 should be a good reflection for prospects

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3XMa.png

Chain analysis is only part of the guide for us to carry out the analysis and even this becomes a source of reinforcement in decision making, but as you mentioned, it does not make a clear picture of demand, which I think is of particular concern regarding market developments and volatility, due to market reactions really determines how a particular coin can move quickly to the fore

After experiencing a correction from the price of $45K some time ago, bitcoin is now moving more stable and I think investors are now starting to be active again in the market, so the volatility of bitcoin in the market is also increasing as the market is getting better, bitcoin price movement is now between $42K-42 ,7K and I think the price is prone to bearish if bitcoin goes down again to $41K and if that happens, it's likely that the bitcoin price will have the potential to breakout again and possibly fall lower than $39K

I would have to say that waiting period would have to be something that is unknown for the time being and that scares people a bit. At the end of the day, we could be at the doors of 50k tomorrow, or we could maybe not reach that level for another 5 months, who knows what will happen? That uncertainty is the reason why there is nothing guaranteed about the current situation, if you do not know what to do then how could you invest accordingly?

You need to know at the very least the price movement or have a prediction about it but if we have none of that then we wouldn't really have any type of situation where we can invest, nor be able to sell if we have any neither.

This could've served to be a start for new bullish move, but there is also accumulation of big volumes by the whales. With specific time period the market of bitcoin bounced crossing major resistance barriers. It looks like the market is experiencing series of change. This change is expected to make positive impact on the market, but nothing big have changed.

Market prediction is common, everyone come forward with the moving trend, but the reality coincide with very few people's prediction. Even now it has formed the bullish expanding pattern, but there is no big move in the price.

I also fear that this could happen, if  break the support that is at $42000 then it will fall towards $39000 but I doubt very much that I will be able to break the $39000, it is more likely that it will fall and as soon as it touches $39000 to  $41000 it starts to rise again because from what I see this support at $39000-$41000 is so strong that it generates a big rejection which makes the price go back up to test the resistance which is at $47000. it may also be the case that the price is oscillating between $42000 to $47000 for a long time like in the past until it decides to start having a big increase towards $60,000

Yeah, even we saw the positive move of the market, however, we're still unsure of what happens next, can't assure if Bullrun will pursue or just get back to correction again. As I look at the chart, the trading line is still moving up and down, can't find strong supports that could hold the market from going down and this is really possible even if we saw the surge.

We couldn't assume that we are moving forward, definitely, the market moves sideways.

It does mate, look after your post ? the value of bitcoin drops bad and now stays below 40k , that happened just for the last 3 days bitcoin fell down 15% and I hate this to happen.
That is why it is called prediction mate , and no one can perfectly get what would come , and now we are seeing sideways mate.

Yes, and so if we even goes down hard to $37k-$38k, it could still work on our way and be favorable because many are going to accumulate at this price range and perhaps pushes the price once again.

However, it seems that the bulls are not giving up the position of $40k easily, when the price goes down at $39,xxx, it's just for a brief moment and then the price will go up again to $40k, just like we are seeing in the last 4 hours range.

The current Bitcoin drop maybe caused by the market circulation. Btc will have to experience a long correction and allow the market to consolidate to give opportunity to buy back and accumulate as a preparation for another bullish run.
Another run might take a little time from now, but will definitely change.
We can't be expecting a positive price action especially that we are facing a series of crisis that have affected most of the market including crypto.

I think the current fall in bitcoin will not be long term. As you say, you can see a crisis in all markets right now, inflation is very high in many countries, including the US. This situation can have a positive impact on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, because bitcoin is first of all not subject to inflation, and there are about 2 million left to mine.

The amount Bitcoin fell this recent week is much Lower on how much it gained from the weeks before, remember that last month bitcoin price subside to below 30k and now bitcoin still hanging to 39-41k meaning this is still higher than what we have recently.
and also the only much affected with this fall are those who wanted to gain easily and not knowing they might fall short time as bitcoin is designed for long term investing and not a day by day benefiting .

Exactly, the price will definitely hit $50,000, before the end of this month of April because the market is developing some signs, show that the price will soon move from $43,000 to $50,000. Many people will still achieve  something good from their long term investment because the price is about to be stable for long term investors to experience massive income from their investment. I believe this pumping people are about to experience from crypto market, it will last through out this year 2022 before it can dump back to $43,000.

It seems you are too optimistic if the price of bitcoin can reach $50K in the near future, I don't know what is your reasoning if bitcoin can reach $50K by the end of April?
 I am personally a little doubtful if bitcoin can experience a price increase this month, because as far as I know it seems investors still tend to be cautious in the midst of still high inflation in the United States (US) and the potential for the US central bank which more aggressive in determining its monetary policy , so that many investors may prefer to wait and see the current developments in American finance.

It doesn't hurt to be optimistic to see bitcoin price hit $50K again during April, it's always possible although not certain. Sometimes you don't have to wait for investors who come with a bag of fresh money to invest so the price goes up, but you just need to pay attention to day traders who are also able to raise prices after some positive fundamentals are in place.

But first, correct your quote.

42k is reasonable area of significance because of the chart showing how often weekly bars close or open there.   Its not a normal pattern, its representing some point that can be taken as support or resistance.   For example second half 2021 was marked by 42k as its lowest price (roughly)
    So we did fail to hold 42k and its now also the place the 50 day average price resides so it somewhere to take as a good sign of  whether BTC price action ongoing will be positive or negative trend.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3UqN.png
   Dollar index pulled from its highs nearly making triple figures, if  it can pull back or begin a period of decline that will help BTC act more positively.   We dont know which path it will take but likely BTC managing to get past this area and be positive is likely inverse to DXY acting weaker and also other data etc.
  For the moment BTC is above the 2 day average but thats nothing much vs BTC now restoring what was lost at this week beginning.

Whales aren't in full control of the market, small investors, and traders can move the prices as well. Yes, we put some consideration of their influence in the market, however, the situation doesn't look great, the market didn't show strong resistance and the price went declining.
I don't make off with that optimism but sometimes have to accept the reality that sometimes we fail in our target.

The current price of Bitcoin is $41k, and we are in the middle of April not that very close to $50k.

we know that 2021 is the year where bitcoin has experienced a high increase but also experienced a sharp decline, it can be said that bitcoin has fluctuated.
Of course, with a deep and impactful correction to date, it is certainly not profitable for bitcoin to be able to recover immediately, but will there not be another recovery?

I tried to summarize from some of the writings of analysts about bitcoin in 2022 which might provide enlightenment and can also predict;

- Christopher
"This year, there are more crypto miners and the largest in all corners of the world, thus making the Bitcoin price more storm-resistant,"
Nearest Bitcoin prices are at US$ 54,000-US$ 56,000. However, this year Bitcoin still has the potential to hit $100,000.

- Tom Lee
Bitcoin is worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in 2022. He mentioned that the two factors needed to reach the target price are investors now turning to cryptocurrencies and regulations aimed at legitimizing the digital asset sector. .

- Afid Sugiono
Bitcoin and other crypto assets will move slowly to rebound. several indicators that can provide positive sentiment on the movement of crypto assets, including Microstrategy, one of the big companies in the technology sector that bought Bitcoin 660 BTC.
Specifically regarding the tax by the Indian government of 30 percent on revenue from crypto asset transfers, the policy did not trigger a significant market response. The same thing happened when the Thai government announced it was canceling a 15 percent tax cut.

- The Ascent
In an article published on February 16, 2022, experts shared their thoughts on the possibility of Bitcoin rising to $200,000. Taking into account the unclear level of regulation by Congress, even though $200,000 Bitcoin would be good this year, it is unlikely to happen. However, given Bitcoin's strong deflationary nature and fundamentals the coin could hit new all-time highs in the $75,000 to $90,000 range.

- Katie Wood
has repeatedly stated that Bitcoin is likely to hit $100,000 by 2022. He further added that recent network updates and increased use of Lightning Network payment applications on the Bitcoin blockchain contributed to its scale and usefulness. Wood predicts that the value of one Bitcoin could exceed $500,000 by 2026. In January 2022, he updated his forecast saying that the price of one Bitcoin could reach $1 million in just 8 years.

so from the above summary we can conclude that everyone acknowledges that there is a positive impact and the possibility of an increase will occur, although there may be many obstacles that will occur and always FUD will affect all of that, but if we are optimistic then HODL your coin.

Despite the current decline and market condition, many people are still optimistic this year. Of course, we can't just ignore the possibilities but we also have to consider the market demand that becomes a factor in its slow recovery. We never lose hopes, however, we can't also assure that this year 2022 is still bullish. I'd tried to look at the history and it was to find out that after the Bullrun here comes the bear season and this is what we have experienced now.

Of course, whales, and crypto experts are dumb positive about what will happen next but most of the time, they overly think about the situation.

Seeing the development of bitcoin at this time of course I have no doubt that bitcoin will continue to rise, when there is a red then this is a good opportunity to buy because we can get a cheaper price, the community in many countries continues to increase and the daily transaction volume continues to rise. that the opportunity to rise is very easy to happen. just be patient then we can get big profit from bitcoin.

On chain anaysis of bitcoin are too much bullish but the bitcoin price movement does not correlate the on chain anaylsis data. This shows that only the on chain and fundamental anaylsis is not sufficient to determine the price of the bitcoin and crypto currenccies. There are other demand and supply factors which determine the prices of bitcoin.
In the long term bitcoin will rise but for the short term combining both techinical and fundamental anaylsis may still not be sufficent to know the next direction of the market.

It doesn't hurt, but it should also be giving you some caution as well. Be optimistic about bitcoin price, but do not rely on it like that's your income. You have to realize that there are people who do trading full time which means that if they are optimistic about it, they may lose a lot of money and their livelihood when they are wrong as well.

If you are long term investor then it is fine, be optimistic, even if it falls, you could earn a lot more later on. However, that works only if you are long term investor and a veteran and have diamond hands, if you are a trader, specially someone who does leverage for example then you will have to be less optimistic and more realistic.

Prediction is what made the crypto market more interesting and more people are getting into it for the belief of them getting more results from those prediction.
So i think id you are not willing to risk then never believe any of those prediction and instead make you own decisions .
That will save your asses mate .

I agree that there are too many people who think that they should be focusing on getting something and they are trying to perfect their predictions but the reality is that you can't do that, it is not that easy and you will probably end up with losing money if you only base your trading on your predictions.

It means that you need to check the market and do a TA in order to figure out what people are thinking, even with that market could surprise everyone and do opposite of what it should do as well, but at the very least you would be trading based on something concrete and not just your emotions, which means there is a higher chance of you making a profit.

Not necessarily, we have witnessed in the past period a lot of fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin despite the many upward indicators, now with a lot of positive news we see Bitcoin in a downward phase instead of rising, there are many factors that affect the price of Bitcoin so according to my personal opinion it is not likely that We see a rise in the current period, but it is certain that the bullish season will start soon despite all this that is happening in the market.

Obviously I also feel that there is optimism that is still building, even though bitcoin is undergoing a prolonged correction until now. but we have to admit that the bull trend has been seen even though the impact has not been seen because it takes time and certainly cannot be instant.

by looking at the chart starting to enter the new year in 2022 it can be seen that bitcoin is starting to stabilize and has no desire to drop below the $30K price, this is definitely a very good sign.
with a price range of $35K-$47K, this is a good sign, just waiting for the momentum to come again. I hope that in the future many large institutions will continue to be able to provide support so that bitcoin does not sink and FUD can also begin to decrease.

it's just a matter of waiting that bitcoin will revive and also affect altcoins and will have a positive impact on the development of new projects, as well as investors who continue to hold altcoins of course.

Bitcoin will surely rise, history can tell how bitcoin price rise drastically from year 2010 until today, i dont believe that btc will turn back to its price on year 2010,because there is a lot of development and adaptions and i think the adaption will continue in the near future so i am in favor of bitcoin price rising than falling a couple of years from now.

Even though it will keep on rising, I just do not believe that the same level could be achieved. Even if we take it from the period when it was 100 bucks, that became 68k at the top, thats about x680 increase if I am not wrong. Same thing to happen even at 40k, would mean the price would have to be over 27 million dollars. This doesn't mean that we won't go up, I do believe that it will go up, just not that much. And I agree that it will not go back to the old price neither, something between 100k and 1 million will be the price where it gets stuck and thats what we will be living for a long time for sure.

Unfortunately today the market corrected again so the bitcoin price dropped below $40k, of course this is a big pressure for bitcoin but I'm optimistic that the price will skyrocket again as the number of users continues to increase and price corrections are common and short-lived.

Unfortunately, for those who is only after Bitcoin price without any plans on maximizing the long term potential profit (some are just speculating and too afraid to buy Btc) this indeed "unfortunately" lol
But for someone who's looking to always expand his Btc holdings, this the most fortunate chance to buy more fractions.
We should learn that Btc isn't always going upward. Bitcoin market always go up and down, and which ever Btc heads, that's always a fortunate chances for the real investors.

Yes, the price has dropped down to $39,000 few minutes ago to enable those that missed the opportunity to buy bitcoin at the low price, to use this opportunity. This is a sign that bitcoin price will soon increase higher for both short term traders and long term traders to start earning income from the market. Any moment from now, bitcoin price will hit $50,000 for people to smile again with their investment.

The lows seem to be calling traders just wanting to buy at low prices, I've been waiting a few weeks holding USDT waiting for this momen, I might be actively buying at $35k because the market is showing a pattern of movement towards $35k, can't wait to go all-in at the lowest price.

Recently there was news that the CEO of Bitmex gave a statement that Q2 the price of Bitcoin and altcoins will experience a dump,
I don't know if this is a real thing or he did FUD to buy at a low price, but indeed if you look at the technical analysis,
Bitcoin prices are still sideways and still tends to be bearish.

The key to success and becoming a rich investor is to always do different things, when the market is red like it is today and makes many people panic and sell cheaply, then we must dare to be different, namely by buying, I believe that bitcoin has great power to skyrocket again so that by immediately buying we have the opportunity to get big profits.

April May and June. This is Q2 and we are over half done with April already. This means there is like 2 months left for a dump, does it look like there will be a dump? I have to say that he is talking with absolutely no data at all. For the time being, charts look like we should be buying and a breakout is coming, maybe it won't but at the very least there is a data backing that idea up and I would understand that.

On the other hand, we have a situation where there is absolutely zero data showing it will go down, why would it? Best case, it will be breaking ATH during this Q2 period, worst case, it will be somewhere around 40k anyway and wouldn't move too much.

whatever happens, buy at the right time is when bitcoin is at a low price and sell at a high price...

but the bear market often scares people, especially newbies who just buy bitcoin when the price is high or when the market is bull. when someone sells his bitcoin with a value that is far from when he bought it then that person has lost a lot. bitcoin price has great potential to continue to rise, so don't be afraid when the price goes down.

bitcoin price back to its price in 2010? is impossible right now.  bitcoin price can't be stopped anymore, every year we see good growth.  mass adoption in the future is bound to happen and it will drive bitcoin price to the highest level.

The analysis only applies as a comparison, how the initial and future reactions will be, but the analysis cannot help the overall journey of the coin, while the demand for something that depends directly on the market, if this is balanced, the market will move stable, although there are other things that influence it to running, even supply can not guarantee really have very accurate expectations

Although some days even since the ATH that happened in November 2021 the price of Bitcoin continued to decline but I was sure that the market immediately skyrocketed again, do not Khawati because I had experienced something like this several times and made me not panic with current price conditions.

all coins need supply and demand to create stability in running, but cannot be separated from utility so that it can run according to the market scheme, while the fundamental concept, all coins are very dependent on the amount of demand and spending, because without these two fundamentals do not give birth to achievements, that In fact, this is what can run the long-term concept

Bitcoin price appreciation is in response to market sentiment, demand to increase supply decreases, economic downturn and inflation will increase demand for bitcoin.  The current correction level is temporary, we are still on the upside since the low $35k, that is showing major corrections as the Ukraine conflict is almost over, bitcoin will rise fast  above this momentum but more slowly is a good cumulative buying opportunity.

Even though Bitcoin is currently dropping to $38k, it doesn't make me doubt the future of Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin price drops have happened
many times before and Bitcoin can always recover very quickly. Many factors also affect Bitcoin price movements, several factors you have
mentioned, therefore it depends on our knowledge of Bitcoin. If we have good knowledge of Bitcoin, then the decline in the price of Bitcoin
should not make us panic, because we already have to realize the decline in the price of Bitcoin is only temporary. After a price decline occurs,
the next one will definitely increase. So what we should do now is collect as much Bitcoin as we can. Don't let us regret when the price of Bitcoin
goes up we don't have large amounts of Bitcoin, especially now the price of Bitcoin is very cheap, so don't delay to buy Bitcoin.

Wait how did you know that the conflict in Ukraine and Russia is near to end? have not seen any report such this in news? are you from those country? please update us  of what would be the plans ?

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Correction? I'm not sure that we are on one because there is no total movement , if there is a correction then there should be a Bull ? but do we really have?

Yes, we do.
The market has crashed after going on the ATH. That's what we've been on and after recovery, it has quickly jumped to $40kish and then again we're on $38k.
Yes we will have but not for now.
Just wait until again we see some recovery and there goes a quick pump but we shall see if that's again the bull run. But most likely, another recovery.

Even though today's market is correcting again but I'm optimistic that the market will shine again, when the price drops then the most important thing is not to panic, stay focused with the aim of holding and of course if you can buy then this will be very good.