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Putin has misjudged Ukraine deeply so what was supposed to be a lightning strike overthrowing the Ukrainian government has turned into a lengthy siege. Meanwhile, the USA and Europe are imposing severe costs on Moscow so much so that Russia has suppressed Iran as the most sanctioned nation with record-breaking 5532 sanctions in total. There is no doubt that the Russian military might is so great but it failed in moral, logistics, and information war.

No one is eating Putin's justification for the war and thinking about who is the next hitlist of Putin. For sure Putin played the biggest strategic blunder of his life even if the Russian army were to win every battle and take every city Russia would still lose the war. winning the heart and mind of the people of Ukraine is an impossible task for Putin. After all no matter what it's a strategic defeat for Putin and Russia.

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Yes, it is his plan. That is only if he is able to murder Zelenskyy. See the number of hit squads/mercenary groups that have attempted to assassinate him: https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/zelensky-has-survived-more-than-a-dozen-assassination-attempts-aide-says/

They can't be cheap, must serve a purpose eh?

Do you think Ukraine will become part of Russia? How else would you expect they be governed? If Zelenskyy survives, then no problem for Putin. He will murder enough citizens until a concession is forced from Ukraine. Either way, Putin will be in control of the Ukrainian government,

If he kills all Ukrainians who will remain in Ukraine, then sure, I agree, he will accomplish his ethnic cleansing plan.

I just don't know where he is going to get all the cannon fodder.  I think when the number of killed Russian soldiers approach 200K
it will be the end of Putin's political career.  Maybe even sooner. I would not be surprised if he does a false flag bombing on his own people
to justify martial law and the military draft.

I don't think he knows how to accomplish what he wants to accomplish.  At least Hitler knew how to design concentration camps, but this
guy cannot find people who can coordinate an attack, perform military maneuvers, etc. his army has been taught WWII tactics.

At this point, it does not matter, if Zelensky lives or is assassinated.  I think the opposition will be even stronger if he is assassinated, and
the western response will be harsher. His 'plan' will turn into a complete disaster, if it is not there already.

Give Ukrainians a martyr, and watch your back. No pro-Russian person will ever be safe in Ukraine after that.

It's for sure that Putin has no intention of largely holding Ukraine. Putin just wants to make sure that Ukraine stays away from NATO and Russia can supply gas to Europe without any transit fees. If he really wants to do something like he has done with Crimea then we could see Kyiv been pounded by thousands of missiles already. RF trying to keep civilian casualties as low as possible but still unwanted incidents happen in the war zone.

However, we should not underestimate Putin by saying he failed to coordinate his invasion. We should not forget that he is a former KGB agent which makes him a cold-blooded killer. He could have something else and bigger in mind that we can not imagine right now. Who knows he could attack Poland and Moldova too.

making Ukraine to stay away from NATO what will be the profit of Putin i think nobody have right to stop any country from joining organization, despite that the NATO of organization maybe is for supper country in European region I don't know but let Russian allow Ukraine to join

NATO was formed in order to collectively defend against Russia. Before the invasion, there was no realistic chance that Ukraine was going to join NATO. Provided that Ukraine is not occupied by Russia, it will be pushed to join NATO after the war is over.

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

Not only that. More importantly, what this invasion did to Ukraine is to culturally separate her from Russian culture, or more precisely from Soviet imperialism. It united Ukrainians of all ethnic and religious denominations, it crystalized Ukraine as a nation.

After this war, there will be a clear distinction between a Ukrainian Russian speaker and a Russian speaker in Russia, in how they view the world,
what human values they revere.

Ukraine will undergo ethnic cleansing in more than one way. It is a spiritual awakening of Ukraine as a nation.

There will be no reconciliation with Russia after this war.

This war will separate good from evil. Homo Sapiens on the left, Homo Sovieticus on the right.

It won't change much for Russia. When there's a seller, there's always a buyer. If not at this price, there will be at a lower one. Some countries will buy Russian Gas. For instance, Orban said he's not going to stop trading with Russia because Hungary cannot afford it.
Many countries have voted to stop trading with Russia but they have contracts until the end of this year, so they will keep buying until 2023. I doubt the war will last that long. It will either end with Russia falling back after getting assurance from Ukraine that it won't join NATO (which it is already ready to give), or escalate to a war with the EU and NATO. This isn't too improbable because almost 50% Russians support the invasion of Ukraine and blame the EU for sanctions. Most supply chains from the EU to Ukraine go through Polish border. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin shot a few missiles towards the border which would be a direct attack that NATO might not let slide.

Russia greatly underestimated the ukrainian resistance they thought the capital kiev will fall under 96 hours, but still they're making progress everyday and i don't think the sanctions imposed by the US and the west are gonna stop them, it doesn't mean that their economy will not take a hit after the war tho.

This could be true but no one wants to lose his best buyer and right now that is the EU. Russia is desperate to keep the EU under pressure to buy gas from him. Russia even played a political game in the middle east to hold the EU market by not letting Qatar build a gas pipeline to the EU. I could explain the whole scenario to you but that will only chuckle my comments you can follow this link to learn all about this pipeline politics (http://armedforcesjournal.com/pipeline-politics-in-syria/).

Now is not the best time to indulge in illusions. Europe needs Russian gas and this dependence will not be easy to overcome. And when this does happen, gas for Europe will be so expensive that a significant part of the industrial production of Europe will lose its competitiveness in the world market. Now Europe buys Russian gas at relatively low prices of long-term contracts, which lag behind the spot price by half a year. But to fill the storage by next winter, you will have to pay much more, and even worse, there simply aren’t enough volumes on the market, except for Russian gas. And there is nowhere for them to appear, such is the reality. Sanctions are a double-edged sword.

Eh, not necessarily. Iran and Venezuela both have difficulty selling their oil as both are heavily sanctioned by the US.

The problem currently is that Western countries heavily depend on Russian oil for their energy needs. If Europe can start importing natural gas from the US and elsewhere, it can boycott Russian energy. This is not an option until they can do this.

You do can "import" your daily water needs with a bucked instead of a pipeline.  Maybe after a week or so you unterstand the difference.

In fact, Putin could completely destroy Ukraine with their existing weapons, but Russia's goal from the start was only to teach lessons, not to destroy all of Ukraine.

Europe has long since started importing liquefied natural gas, as required by its energy security strategy. However, Europe cannot completely refuse pipeline Russian gas today and will not be able even in a year or two. Populist calls by European politicians to "eat less meat", "reduce the temperature in residential buildings" and "save gasoline" may mitigate the problem of dependence on Russian gas, but do not solve it. Without Russian gas, Europe will freeze over next winter and this is not a figure of speech.

He should have just done this instead of invading, imho. Much more cost effective, like how he's propping that guy in Belarus. Just orchestrate a coup to get rid of Zelinsky and help install a more friendly president.

The invasion stirred nationalist sentiments in Ukraine and even if Putin do get rid of the Zelinsky administration, whatever government he's going to plop down is not going to be viewed as legitimate and would be constantly threatened by coups and rebellion.

Energie, natural gas and petrol is only one sector but i think Russia is also the largest exporter of fertilizer and lots of weath....
The metal market what russia supplies the world with:
Palladium 40%, Car exhaust (catalytic converter) ...
Platinum 2nd largest supplier, Car exhaust(Diesel) ...
Vanadium 2nd largest supplier, stronger Steel ...
Nickel 3rd largest supplier, all batteries, stainless steel.... (new all time high price)
Aluminium 2nd largest supplier, ....... (new all time high price)
Cobalt 2nd largest producer, batteries
Titanium 13% of global supply (41% of all german manufacture), airspace, golf clubs, engines
Gold 2nd biggest supplier

Politician boycott and sanction not the people (well some vaccinated zombies to), the people have no say in the matter

I think the issue with metals can quietly wait in the corner when the issue of heat, electricity, gasoline and food (primarily wheat and sunflower oil) is on the agenda.

well then at least the russian parts of ukraine should have their own government

whats the point if estonians and latvians are allowed to declare independence from russians but russians are not allowed to declare independence from them.


nationalist autonomy for all, thats liberty and freedom but the usa is surpressing it.

Why are those areas of Ukraine majority Russian though? IMHO they should have just traded people across those borders like India and Pakistan did (preferably less violently).

Perhaps, but neither strategy is easy. The President before Zelenskky was a pro-Russia type leader that was essentially ousted who now lives in exile. Whatever coup Putin could devise would probably be shut down by the West before it could come to fruition. (Though seeing as NATO has done little to intervene in the invasion, maybe I could be wrong about that).


I agree, but Putin did not foresee this happening. He envisioned a quick Ukrainian defeat. Instead he's galvanized Ukraine and the rest of the Westernized world against him.

Map shows at what date a particular area was given to Ukraine.
Donbas was part of Ukraine for 25%  of Ukraines history (92 years out of 367)
If your argument is that Ukraine is 1142 old than Donbas region was 8% part of Ukraine
Donbas the two break away areas of Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's, a part of what Lenin gave away for personal gains.
The modern nations of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus' as their cultural ancestors, with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it.
https://i.ibb.co/KK8Ln8J/Untitled.jpg (https://imgbb.com/)  https://i.ibb.co/wBdGC3J/Donbas-overlaid.jpg (https://imgbb.com/)

 https://i.ibb.co/h9TvyxB/Untitled.jpg (https://imgbb.com/)

So it's been a part of Ukraine for 100 years and you feel like it's not enough?
The map of Europe has been changing by a lot every 100 years. Who's there to decide to which state we should go back to? The borders are established for a reason and I thought WW2 would teach people a bit about the pain that imperialism can bring.

Why don't we restore the Ottoman Empire in the state from 1850? Why don't we restore the Austrian Empire from the same year? Or maybe let's go a 100 years back where territory of Belarus was a part of Poland? Lithuanians would also want their kingdom back.

The problem of Putin is that he's literary a bastard with no father who wants to show the world how tough he is because his whole life he was beaten first by his father in law, then by his uncle and finally by other kids. Now he wants to beat some Ukrainian women and children into submission.

There is a good saying that might be relevant here. "The rhinoceros has poor eyesight, but with its weight, this is not his problem".  ;D

People who live there decide what they want to be and no-one else.
And the people of  Donetsk People's Republic  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic) and the Luhansk People's Republic  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People's_Republic) decided to break away form the abusive Ukraine in 2014.

Like a divorce when the abused partner finally had enough and goes the own way, married no more.
It is a Family Feud and nothing to do with the rest of the world.

That's a good saying indeed, although a rhinoceros can be shot if he roams around too much in the places where he's not welcome.


Do you really believe this war is about Donetsk and Luhansk?
Even Putin isn't clear about that. First it was about Crimea, then those separatist republics, then about nazis, then about Ukraine joining NATO, now it's about demilitarization.
Do these "people" want Ukraine to become defenseless vassal state of Russia?

One more thing, if it's all about what the people want, maybe one day "the people" will want you to live in their country and speak their language and if you don't, you'll get denazified.

it would be too rash to conclude that Russia lost strategically . even though the news on social media seems to corner the Russian invasion of Ukraine. and reported the number of Russian soldiers who died. but news is just news. we can't confirm the truth.
I prefer to look at the point of view that Russia did not use real power or totality in the invasion of Ukraine. Russia seems to minimize the death toll from Ukrainian citizens.

but I don't care who loses and wins. because in war. those who lose and win still receive the same loss, namely many lives will fall and die. a life that money cannot buy. is the most precious thing in this world. and cannot be replaced.

I hope Russia and Ukraine can resolve this issue peacefully soon.

I really hate violence because it harms everyone.

Almost a century and only now they are complaining about being "treated badly"? Those Russians should have opposed the incorporation into Ukraine immediately after the USSR fell and either unified with Russia proper or became independent countries.

And then there's the issue that they may have been placed there as forward settlers to begin with. I haven't looked up the exact locations but I've read that both the czars and the Soviets has systematically settled Russians into areas of Ukraine (usually after depopulation). If these majority Russian areas are those same areas, then it really paid dividends for Russia.

Also, moving borders to historic heights is a touchy topic. Many modern countries like Egypt, Poland, UK, Spain and Turkey would be far bigger if they insist on their max extent.


Yes, I remember that president that was removed for being too pro-Russia. We haven't seen Putin try another regime change before the invasion though.

The Ukrainians could have played it a bit slower about the whole NATO membership thing but I guess they were overcompensating for the previous regime's excessively pro-Russia policies.

Some are married for decades at some stage a partner becomes increasingly abusive (in this case 16000 dead in 8 years), then it's time for a divorce. This "family" feud is no execption.
We will find out how many Countries Ukraine will be split, only 3 or 4, 5..... (West Ukraine, Ukraine, Donetsk, Luhansk People's Republic....)
 

Donetsk and Luhansk are gone. These regions would probably have voluntarily isolated if they were given the choice anyways. Ukraine will still be Ukraine, a single nation. Just carve out the exception for those two regions.

If we're talking a divorce, Putin seems to be going through a rough patch with some of his advisors.

See here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/putin-adviser-chubais-quits-over-ukraine-war-and-leaves-russia

Long time Russian advisor leaves Russia over Ukraine war. Might seem like Putin is in a bit of a ditch. Lucky for him to get out alive.

Donetsk and Luhansk did have a referendum and 90% voted to be a indepented nations.
What the outcome of the negotiations will be we will find out.
Lviv Oblast more or less is the same size as Luhansk and bigger than Slovenia, Montenegro or 50 countries in the world, was once a independent  state, Galicia-Volhynia, it was also part of Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Austro-Hungarian Empire,
and the West Ukrainian People's Republic and Poland, when it was part of the Lwów Voivodeship of the Second Republic of Poland.
From November 1918 — June 1919 part of an independent West Ukrainian National Republic.
The region only became part of the Soviet Union under the terms of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact in 1939.
You dare to predict what the outcome of a referendum would be in the oblast if the people given the choice to be indepented and if the behave, work hard to have the option to join Eu and Nato?

In Zakarpattia Oblast seven villages the Mukachivskyi Raion (couple of thousand people) are of Hungarian decent ask them if the want to be part of Hungary and instantly become EU citizen or stay a minority in the proven abusive Ukraine. It isn't only Donetsk and Luhansk people who suffer in Ukraine.

About time you show some respect for the President  ;D
https://youtu.be/oua0Puihrkc

Well those referendums were not "legitimate." (Seems we recognize legitimacy to be Western acceptance, though that shouldn't necessarily be the standard). My point is, under any normal circumstances a democratic election would just result in an independent nation for these regions. Zelenskky seems unwilling to accept the truth that some territories are gone, but he's a politician and that is their normal standard (I haven't kept updated on the negotiation talks, so it may be that Zelenskky has already conceded those regions, I don't know).


I wish I had not watched that. You should put a warning on that video.

Probably not as drastic as Yugoslavia where they had like 4+ ethnicities jammed into one country. Thanks for reminding me about the western area that is having separatist movement as well.

lets see how the woke left in the usa will struggle to life with Pres. Putin, and emberass themselves over and over again, getting exposed as nazis and racist

None of these minerals are strategic in the sense that they cannot be obtained from other locations, albeit perhaps there will be a cost of doing so. None of these elements are going to deter the West or force them into trading with Putin. The only exception is Crude Oil, and that may also be eventually sourced somehow else.

RE aluminium, that is quite funny that you mention: Putin would need to import the mineral from Australia to keep the production. Guess what Australia did recently about it? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-20/rio-in-spotlight-after-australia-bans-alumina-exports-to-russia) That's right, banned the export to Putin's Russia.


Again posting over and over the same image in every thread. The right to rule does not come from the right of contest, who ruled before or any "god given reason" but only from the will of the people that live there. We do not live in the middle ages or else Putin would have to give half of Russia to Mongolia.

He has more to worry about than loosing finacial support
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/27/zelenskyy-worried-about-western-financial-support-after-video-surfaces-showing-ukraine-military-torturing-russian-pows/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaNjK5VKmMQ
RUSSIA SEIZES Ownership & Control of Major BRANDS - Burger King, MacDonalds, KFC, Subway, M&S, Ibis