Bitcoin Forum

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

I try to search for you on that but no result I could get for that. The price of crude oil per barrel today still standing for $114 and between that. The rumour can be with the Ukraine and Russia war because for a month that it started, there has been a steady price increase of crude oil from $89 to above $100 and this is affecting the economy of more countries than those in the war.

Russia produces 11,262,746 barrels per day of oil (as of 2016) ranking 3rd in the world, which represents about one eighth of the amount of barrels of oil produced globally, which is estimated at about 88.4 million barrels per day in 2020.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/265203/global-oil-production-since-in-barrels-per-day/#:~:text=Global%20oil%20production%20amounted%20to,at%20around%2095%20million%20barrels.
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/russia-oil/#:~:text=Oil%20Production%20in%20Russia&text=Russia%20produces%2011%2C262%2C746%20barrels%20per,reserves%20(as%20of%202016).

We know that even if Russian oil is banned, the country may continue to export it to some countries, most notably China. Therefore, it is unlikely, at the present time, that we will witness prices above 200 dollars per barrel.

This rumor might be true if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to stop exporting, which is almost impossible.

I think this rumor is about as useful as people who were predicting that bitcoin was going to be $100,000 by the end of 2021. The war in Ukraine has put pressure on supplies but there is excess capacity that can be ramped up short term. In the medium to long term, if oil stays above $100 per barrel it means a lot more sources are economic to exploit - like many more US fracking sites. These will eventually be brought online and help to stabilize the price somewhat closer to where we are now. There may be spikes but if it goes too high, it'll cause a recession which drops demand too.

 People who think that crude oil could go to ATH once agian should really consider what they are looking at right now. The west already decided that they will not work with Russia anymore and that is why I have to say that it is not going to that way at all because all those saudi arabia and venezuela and all other things will make Russia not really a big deal. All those that Russia sent, will be covered from all the other nations that west could get and maybe it will not be the same but 70-80 dollar range will become reality. Maybe not like 10-20 ever again, but not 300 for sure, there is no chance.

Highly unlikely. The only scenario where I see this happening is in case of an European ban from Russia Oil.
This would send the Brent/WTI barrel to the moon because of Europe should anyway buy the displaced Russian oli elsewhere.

As an European, I do hope this scenario will never materialize.

We would be never seeing those 10-20 but playing around below 100 is something that we do believe on.There might be some total cut-off ties in regarding with Russia supply but doesnt mean that it
would really make things worst.We've seen it a few months or weeks ago but it would be just momentarily yet other nations had already made out some decisions in regarding supply
which having going 300 is impossible to happen but well if there are rumors then probabilities to happen is there at least but close to impossible.

I haven’t heard about $300 oil but I heard tons of rumors about $200 oil about 2 weeks ago when we topped $135. It was one week after the invasion. And then crude oil tanked to less than $100 and now it’s going up to $122.

So there might of been this article published but it’s probably because they want people to buy oil contracts and make a big bull trap.

Either way. Before the invasion price of crude was going up anyways. This invasion just accelerated it. We need alternative and renewable energies and there just isn’t enough time for that. Even if everyone could buy an EV the raw materials and time to make the car would take too long.

Yep, or about as useful as most rumors, i.e., pretty much useless to anyone but oil traders who would probably act on it.  For the rest of us, there's not much we can do.  It's not as though we can stockpile gasoline or heating oil in case the price of both skyrocket.  If the rumor was about rice or toilet paper, it might be a different story--but even then, what we're talking about here is just something some internet nobody wrote on a discussion forum with no evidence.

And I'd also point out that you only hear predictions like this when there's already a trend (or what looks like one) in the price of something.  Those predictions about bitcoin going to $100k were usually when it was rising anyway.  And then it turned out to be incorrect, so there you go.

my country is a member of OPEC, but there is no news here that mentions that OPEC will increase the price of oil per barrel .. but if it really happens it will certainly cause massive economic chaos

While I partly agree with your argument, I highly doubt it would reach that price this year. Demand would not remain constant. You have to think that we came from a $60 price a year ago. Now we are at double that price, not that far from an ATH. To reach $300 would be to multiply by 2.5 from this level.

There are many people who would not be able to afford to go to work with those prices, for example. People who used to take the car on the weekend to go to the countryside would stay in the city. Etc. So, I think the more the price goes up, the more difficult it will be for it to keep going up.

If this happens I'm sure there will be many dead industries, the dependence of the industry with oil is very high, if the price of around $ 95 per barrel and the industry has felt a direct impact then if the price of $ 300 will be many industries to die, besides the industry, of course automatives will be reducing the amount of production and will be a lot of unemployment from the increase in oil prices which reached $ 300 per barrel.

I think this option is possible. Certainly not 300 dollars, but 200-250 quite. If the European Union refuses Russian oil, the price may rise. But this action will hit Europe very hard and it will be forced to lift sanctions on the fuel industry. I think Europe does not dare to take these actions, it is pointless. When compared with the situation in the gas industry in Europe. I think it will be the same with oil.

While the possibility exists, the probability is slim.
USA has oil reserves they use to soften price shocks. At 200$/barrel (just a random very high price still much lower than 300) I am certain that many (at least from Texas and OPEC) will consider increasing production and some will consider lowering consumption. Talks with Venezuela are also a fact. I think that market will equalize itself and 300$ won't be reached.

I don't know where you heard the rumor from, but imho it looks more like an attempt to panic people than something with realistic chances to happen.

The price of oil (expressed in US dollars) can rise in two ways. 

The price may rise if oil rises in price, and may rise if the US dollar depreciates. 

What are the prerequisites for an increase in oil prices? 

This is her deficiency.  An embargo on Russian oil could potentially lead to a shortage. 

What are the prerequisites for the depreciation of the US dollar? 

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency.  However, at present, Russia and China are refusing to use the US dollar in their financial and economic activities.  Recently I read the news that Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil not for US dollars, but for Chinese yuan.  This is a very negative signal for the US dollar. 

Therefore, based on this, there are serious prerequisites for further growth in oil prices.

I think you are talking about gas and not oil? Europe imports about less than 3 million barrels per day from Russian crude^[1], this amount can be compensated by Iranian oil or even allow Venezuela to export oil, also that 3 million barrels out of a total of total 70 million barrels per day will not lead prices to rise from 100 USD to 300 USD.

Do not forget that these prices may be encouraging for shale oil.

With regard to gas, the story is completely different, as is the cost of liquefied gas, establishing stations to receive that gas, and the cost of the story may easily multiply prices several times.

[1]

Oil.
Banning Russians Gas is next to impossible for Europe, as substituting with LNG is not viable, lacking basic infrastructures.
Substituting Russian Oil is extremely difficult and costly, but doable if all member states are determined to do so.
The efficacy of both those measures, I am not certain.

What I've read is that $120-$150 per barrel is possible but $300 is not going to happen.

Can you cite any source that open did really said that or it's just an overheard somewhere? I don't think that we'll go that far, the price of oil has gone up already and yeah possible to increase but not to that point.

Well, if you think so then you got to start investing in oil then.

Well.. it is not just a rumor, because there are some articles that are speculating this scenario ...Source : https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-warns-300-dollars-barrel-oil-europe-natural-gas-supply-2022-3

The thing is..... Russia might think that they are providing more than 8% of the worlds oil and that gives them leverage to do what they want, but what happens when countries start to wean themselves off from their dependency from Russian oil? In the long-term this will reduce their customers and buyers of their oil.  ;)

The weather is also changing, so Europe will soon need less Gas than what is needed in cold seasons.  ;D

The oil industry in Venezuela is in ruins,due to the "smart management" by the Venezuelan socialists.
It would take years for Venezuela to recover it's oil industry and this would require foreign investments,which is impossible under the Maduro goverment.
Iran is exporting oil mostly for the Asian countries.I don't think that the Iranians would switch to Europe.
Iran has close relationships with Russia and not-so-close relationships with the European Union.
Anyway,I don't believe that the oil prices can hit a range above 150 USD for long time frame.
Anything above 150 USD oil price would be catastrophic for the global economy.  

At a certain crude oil tipping point, it will become more cost effective to use vegetable oil in flex fuel diesel vehicles, than actual diesel. More affordable to convert vehicles to biogas or electric, than stay on gasoline. As oil prices rise, consumers will seek alternatives. Some might sell cars and trucks to buy electric scooters and attach a trailer to the rear to haul groceries and cargo. Fossil fuel based transportation isn't a global monopoly, although it is a dominant demographic. These price hikes will incentivize competitors to fossil fuel based transportation to expand.

The post industrial age era saw people trade their horses for automobiles.

If oil prices soar high enough, we could perhaps live to see people trade automobiles for horses and ostrich pulled carts.

https://i.ibb.co/1z1GKB6/ostrich-cart.png

$300 per barrel is too unrealistic. It may go up to $150-$200 in the short term. And most of us are forgetting the fact that the Russo-Ukrainian war is only one of the many factors behind this spike. The main reason for the increase in crude oil prices is the replacement of Trump by Biden as the US president. Even before the war, the prices were close to $100 per barrel, due to energy policies from the Biden administration. For the US, it is not going to be of much concern. They produce most of the oil that they consume. But that is not the case with the EU, Japan, China, India.etc. These countries need to import much of their oil from the OPEC and an increase in prices mean a big hole in their respective budgets.

Looks like you're right! You remind me of what former president Trump said during the 2020 presidential campaign. He made accurate predictions about the gas price we would pay if Biden became president. I still prefer the way Trump is president than Biden. If he were still the president of the US perhaps the war between Russia and Ukraine would not have happened.
The US is one of the 10 countries with the largest oil reserves in the world, if the war does not end seems that the EU will be the one to suffer the most.

Ah! Trump may have made accurate predictions for gas prices, but for the wrong reasons. I am not from the US, so I don’t dare to say which president I like the most, but I wouldn’t use Trump as a benchmark of fair reasoning while Russia is involved.

If oil goes to 300$, it would mean that gas prices in Europe will hit 4 euros, right now at 2 euros per liter half is tax half is oil (including manufacturing, etc, etc) but let's say 4, just for fun, the exact the same thing will happen in India or Turkey.
Now at 4 euros per liter, how many people will drive around? How many people in India will afford to buy one tank of gas when that will be the average wage worth? Obviously, a lot will cut gas consumption, when the demand goes lower, what will the price do?

When the price goes up, what will some producers who have higher costs do other than increase production, there are thousands of mothballed wells that were losing money even at 100$ per barrel, they will turn them back on, increasing offer, what happens with the price when there is increased offer?

Now, let's assume Russia will cut oil exports, how is China, the biggest oil importer going to react other than invading Manchuria and Siberia?
Let's go with the Russian propaganda, that China will get cheap oil from Russia, then, what are other oil exporters that currently make 85% of Chinese imports going to do other than sell to other countries?

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A8pHT.jpeg

That's a scenario-based n Russian propaganda how hurting Russia will hurt the global economy.
The 1.2 Trillion gas station will ruin the 85 Trillion world if they are not left alone while invading bombing and killing people.


 

Summarising, we Europeans are in a very bad situation, as we decided to rely on plants and animals dead millions of years ago to power our society, instead of using more modern ways of producing energy (nuclear included).
We are paying the bad choices we made a few decades ago.

Small correction, we decided to rely on dead animals that died beyond our borders!  ;) Stupid dinos!
Anyhow, although something will absolutely be done, from new power sources to probably and hopefully some much needed castration in the eco-terrorist media and groups, it's going to take a lot of time, I was just going through some numbers, 280 million vehicles in Europe, 1 million BEV sales last year, one decade won't do a thing.

Oh, and part of the stupidity is that the governments have got used to getting billions in gas taxes, imagine we wouldn't have those in place!  ::)

Additional to that Russia will continue to export to at least 5 countries considering their proposal to India as well where they offered to provide them oil/ Gas at a really reasonably low prices which does mean that they would be willing to provide such offer to other countries as well who will be willing to go forth with it.
Therefore 300 is definately going to be an over exaggerated estimate, at the same time there are other countries as well who would be willing to take over this export opportunity since the inflation is already on the floor due to the pandemic as well, which does mean that government would have numerous opportunities to take over this through the renewable sources pulling the price down also it's not that hard there are certain trees as well which can produce fully functional oil even diesel for cars, there ofc not going to take over the production but it just extends to the fact that there is so little rescarch regarding the non conservative sources of energy and this can provide a fast response on that section making it better for the whole community in the long run..

I'm also afraid of this scenario, there are rumors of that Europe was having discussion in order to ban Russian imports. It would be the worst case scenario, it would send oil to the moon. Europe is importing 3 million barrels per day, that's a huge number that can't be replaced if lost.

It won't send Oil price to the moon if Russia is cut off from selling to EU if OPEC do a proper arrangement to members for them to increase supply and moreover Russia will still continue to sell to Asian countries which will reduce the demand from Asian countries. So I think it will still be a win and lose situation for EU/NATO and Russia consecutively. All the effort is to stop Russia from continuous invasion. The Ukraine president still asking for more sanctions and that is the reason for this Oil embargo on Russia.

You had said it’s the rumour,so you need to worry then. The trade of barrels was already increased.But the price which you had mentioned was not the real one.So the trade of barrels happened with different price in different  country.The county which was silent for the war and neutrality.The getting barrels at less then a old price,this is the move to increase the support towards them.

Russian crude has once again hit triple digits, which means that they have found sufficient number of buyers from China, India and some of the other countries. Brent Crude is currently trading at $121 per barrel. The Russian crudes are trading at the following levels right now: Sokol at $104 per barrel, ESPO at $91 per barrel and Urals at $93 per barrel. There is still a discount of around 20% to 30% for the Russian crude, but there seems to be sufficient demand to keep the Russian treasury full. And even at a discount, the price of Russian crude is more than what it was before the invasion.

I don't think crude oil will go as high as $300/barrel. Some nations that are friendly with Russia will start buying their energy at a discounted rate and this create some kind of price crisis in the market, ensuring it's not over priced.

We all know that this kind of news is mainly the result of various sanctions centering on the war in Russia and Ukraine. Russia's oil embargo would significantly reduce global oil production and supply, leading to a sharp rise in oil demand. On the other hand, oil production is being disrupted due to the attacks of Huthi rebels on Saudi Arabia, one of the richest countries in the world. Such oil crises are also exacerbated by Western sanctions, including the United States, on a number of oil-rich countries, including Iran and Venezuela. On the other hand, since the modern world cannot be imagined without oil, such false information can be implemented as accurate.

Despite the sanctions, Russia won't be affected the slightest bit, even if there's an embargo against their oil exports. There are plenty of other markets to channel their trades, hurting Europe in the long-term. India and China, being their largest importers, are also two superpowers in terms of financial strength, keeping Russia's economy intact.

Even if Europe imports oil from Venezuela or Iran, it will be more expensive and I said earlier, will hurt Europe (and its citizens) in the long-term.

I've thought 200 dollars a barrel was going to happen sometime sooner or later anyway but removing Russia supply makes it quite reasonable.   I dont know 300 is especially realistic beyond a spike but in any case the Russia oil will leak out somewhere just like Iraq oil did similar a long time ago, its not likely that we do not see the oil at all just that supply is restricted and done with reduced price for type probably.   Certainly we are in a period of extended high price oil, not sure these higher price targets happen exactly eg. usa has alot of spare capacity etc.

I have said this before. It is stupid for the Europeans to boycott petroleum products from Russia. Russia is the closest source for crude oil and natural gas, as far as Europe is concerned. If they want to source these products from anywhere else, freight charges involved will be very significant. And honestly, Iran and Venezuela don't have spare capacity to replace Russian oil production. On top of that, the production in these two countries have been impacted by many years of sanctions and embargoes from the United States.

Not an expert on oil pricing, but to me 300 USD per barrel seems too much. Consumer would go crazy with such prices at the gas station. The oil price went from 70 USD in January to around 120 USD now, so it wasn't even a 100% increase yet. Going to 300 would mean 300% from January, it's too much. The problem I see the higher the price will go, the more pressure will be put on Opec to increase production which will bring prices down again. Also if the oil price will be long time above 200 USD it's very lucrative to go back and trade with Russia cheaply.

Yes, even if Iran and Venezuela accept to return to increase oil production to replace Russian supply, it will be very difficult to do. Their oil industry was frozen and forgotten for many years due to the embargo from the US, it took Venezuela several years to restore the plants and proper management to restore their oil industry. This is clearly the wrong decision of the European government and the people of these countries will have to bear it all.

Only time will tell, I believe that chances of a Russian embargo are extremely high, governments want to act like they're taking action against Russia, that's why they imposed sanctions, just for show. Even if the Russian production is eventually replaced by other countries such as Venezuela, it will cost higher than it was to import from Russia

In the aspect of Russia selling to other countries that are not EU I think it should be cheaper because they are supplying or producing more than demand. The number of countries that will buy now will be limited unlike when there was no sanctions and from economics, it is demand that will increase price, so the demand is not higher now for Russian Oil and gas. But if Venezuela is brought in to replace the supply of Russia, price can only be higher if they don't meet up with production while demand go up.

I did a few searches regarding what you said and the price is rising as you already said this can be even higher and the reason is clear since Russia is supplying a big share of oil in Europe and these countries need Russia for their gas and oils the price started increasing in another hand these countries are trying to find another resource for supplying oil but this will take time and during this time of oil price if increasing sharply, can't be completely sure about it but 300 is not far at all.

Right now Saudi Arabia is earning a net profit of close to $1 billion per day from their crude oil exports. They are one of the countries who are benefitting the most from the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russian exports are impacted by sanctions, but at the same time there is no significant dent in their oil revenue as a result of higher prices. The real victims of this game is the citizens of oil consuming nations, who are forced to pay 2x or even 3x prices for their gasoline and electricity. Here in India, the petrol prices have gone up by more than 10% in the last few days.

Looks like oil crude futures are pulling back from last weeks rally. It looked like it was going to go back to the $130 area and break ATH however we had a $10 loss in the last 24 hours.

Only report why it pulled back this much is due to the covid shutdowns in China. Since many cities are closing down it reduces demand for oil. So depending on how long this lasts oil might trades sideways for the next few weeks. However I don’t think we will see oil go lower than $100 again anytime soon.

Russia's oil exports have been falling for the past few weeks, falling 26% in the week ended March 23. Putin has signed an order to begin accepting payments in rubles for oil transactions, which will be applied at the end of March for unfriendly countries. If European companies oppose this policy, world oil prices will continue to escalate in the coming days.

OIL is back below 100 USD/barrel.
Russia order to pay oil in RUB has been quite supportive of USDRUB in the short term, but I guess it will be useless to mantain the level in the long term.

WTI Crude is now trading at $103, with Brent Crude is almost surpassing $110 ($109 to be exact). While this fall in prices is better than nothing, it doesn't sound too promising, since oil has been extremely volatile the past few weeks, thus, this decrease might not actually mean accomplish anything (in terms of fuel prices which are unlikely to change at the gas pumps).

If the war doesn't stop anytime soon, we'll be subject to see massive increases in fueling and energy costs.

Yeah.. just checked the oil prices. Brent trading at $111.30 per barrel. Russian crude is trading at a discount, especially the Urals variety that loads from European ports. According to Neste, Urals is trading at $80.80 per barrel. However, the crude grades from Russia that loads from Asian ports are trading at higher levels. Sokol is trading at $97.64 per barrel, while ESPO is trading at $81.96 per barrel. Indian and Chinese buyers continue to purchase Russian crude, but still can't replace the previous volumes from Europe.

The issue that the price of oil will continue to rise I have often heard, and this year the price has reached $100 per barrel, with stocks becoming increasingly difficult but demand continues to increase so prices will continue to rise, especially when there is a war between Russia vs. oil stock in case something bad happens.

When it comes to rumors the most important thing we need to know is the source of those rumors, if we were talking about a leader of a country which is an important producer of oil then we may give some weight to the rumor and ponder about how likely it is we come close to that price and what will be the consequences of it?

However, if the source is just something that we read online without anything to backup the story, then I do not see the reason to give it any importance at all and we must disregard it as just another case of fake news.

Fake news could be everywhere and anywhere which isnt something that could be seen online but also into traditional mediums that we do have thats why verifying it first would be always the key

whether you do believe it or not because it could neither be the truth or simply fake which it is important to have these considerations.Speaking of barrel reaching 300 USD then if particular
sentiments and crisis do even more tense or becomes more severe then we could possibly hit up but considering on how many countries does produce oil (not only Russia)
then i doubt that we would be seeing these numbers.

indeed the need for oil from Russia is an important part for European countries to meet their needs for oil. and they are looking for alternative supplies other than russia, because of the sanctions imposed on russia as a result of the invasion of ukraine, but so far like germany, i see on television news starting to have trouble with oil, and if this continues and even spreads, it could be it happened. but as you said where it is not only russia that produces oil, then there may be an increase in prices but not to that extent, this is of course related to distribution from other more distant places

The European countries are openly threatening sanctions and making statements about destroying the Russian market for petroleum and natural gas. And then they expect Russia to sit back and watch. Didn't worked out that well. Russia has issued an ultimatum to Germany (which receives more than 50% of its gas from Russia) to make payments for natural gas in Rubles. If the payments are not made, then the shipment of natural gas will be suspended and most of the industries in Germany will be shut down. Replacing all that gas from other sources is not viable for two reasons - first they don't have enough LNG terminals, and secondly there is not enough spare capacity from the other countries.

For one country, the country of the world terrorist, such a "price tag" of course would be very useful. And now there will be a huge amount of stuffing in the media, with similar materials and announcements, the purpose of which is to create and maintain "stress" in the market. The goal is an attempt to increase the price and demand for oil products, with a drop in sales and demand for Russian oil, which is a key supplier of funds to the budget of a terrorist country that is losing billions of dollars to wage an aggressive war in Ukraine. They need to maintain their resource economy in order to carry out the crazy ideas of the Kremlin's under-fuhrer. Without high oil prices - these plans will not come true, without filling the budget - an uprising of the population of Russia itself is not ruled out, without the receipt of money - the very existence of this fascist government is in question.

If Russia is now asking Germany to make payment of gas shipment in rubies that means Russia is threatening Germany and EU because of her large gas reserve. This is probably the reason Russia is flexing military muscle against Ukraine with the understanding that they have resources and need that EU countries won't afford to resist in a haste. Looking for alternative is the best for eu.

LOL... who is threatening whom? It was Germany who imposed sanctions on Russia. First they are sanctioning the payments in EUR and USD. And when Russia ask for payments in RUR instead (in order to bypass the sanctions), they are refusing to adhere. Looking for alternatives may work well in an ideal scenario. But the problem is that, none of the "alternate" suppliers (including the United States) have enough spare capacity to replace even 20% of the Russian supply. Germany and Austria have already announced gas rationing plans. I guess such plans will remain in place for at least the next 5 years.

So oil had a bearish day again today. Basically Biden announced a plan to provide around 1 million of barrels of oil from the reserves. And the market took it seriously and had a big dump. Trading only above $100 now.

Along with the Shanghai covid closures and this it was enough to bring oil down 15%. It seems to be more volatile than Bitcoin even.

I think it’s an over reaction and in a weeks time it will go back up.

I think there are more changes coming about the price of the oil because of Biden moves. It's because this that's why market is going down but we know this is for a short time only and maybe the market go back to normal soon.

Oil it's very important to us , if they are more supply the demand can be going down. That's why oil is can volatile than Bitcoin this time.

If they are more countries focus in this happen , some changes will happen. We don't know if they are good or bad.

Rumors that the price of oil must rise is an old thing that I often hear, of course OPEC hopes to regulate prices with supply and now many OPEC countries are leaving because they can't produce anymore, and this is a sign that a lot of oil is getting more difficult, I'm sure oil prices will continue The increase is not because of OPEC's appeal but the world's demand for oil continues to increase, the USA has announced that oil demand reaches more than 15% of world production so that oil prices will continue to rise.

Irrespective of whatever statements they make, the OPEC bloc has no real reason to accept lower prices for oil. Right now countries such as Saudi Arabia are benefitting from this situation in two ways - first of all they can sell increasing amounts of oil, due to the embargo on exports from Russia. And then, they are getting more $$$ for each barrel of oil that they export. Because of stupid policies from the Biden administration, it is the ordinary people from countries like India and Russia who are suffering.

Not just India and Russia, but the whole world are now affected by the embargo on oil against the Russian. And as you have said, someone will have to benefit and it will be Saudi or at least some US ally in the Middle East. So it's going to be a battle of attrition, it looks like Putin is holding up and now putting pressure on US and it's allies regarding the war after a month.

The war will end in a month or so, and if the oil prices continue to remain at $110-120 levels, then many of the oil consuming nations will be forced to get their crude at discounted rates from Russia. Already China and India have indicated that they are willing to purchase Russian crude. These countries face a difficult choice - either purchase Russian crude at a discount, or witness an economic recession in their own territory. BTW, the Indian government should blame themselves. When crude was trading at $40 per barrel, these guys refused to accumulate oil reserves.

If, in addition, this results in the fact that the supply of oil and gas in the USA and Europe has not been seen much in the news, it is a very big problem, the reason is simple, they have understood that they depend highly on oil and the gas, this shows that as long as there is no alternative energy that can replace them, they have to depend on these countries, and since everything is of a merely political nature, it should not be surprising that both Europe and the USA are somehow receiving oil and gas Russian without being disclosed, sometimes politics can be that dirty.

Rumors have it that the war will end by May, a month or so from now, however, all these sanctions that have been put against Russia won't be lifted, thus, it's still possible that barrel could still surpass $150, despite the ceasefire. Since other Asian countries are purchasing oil at discounted prices, Russia's economy isn't hurting too much, it's ours that it's being pwned.

Anyway, could someone also explain why oil prices have frozen the past few days? They don't seem to be updating.

Do remember that goverments can print as much money as they want and buy all the futures contracts ,stocks,bonds they want , and nobody can verify what they are doing and when...govs can manipulate prices easy

Initially the prices rose, because a lot of people thought that Russia won't be able to sell it's crude. But that is not the case, as countries such as China, India and Indonesia are mopping up the supplies from Russia at discounted rates. Even the United States has used this opportunity to increase the imports from Russia (and that is despite the "ban"). The supply crunch for crude oil has not worsened, despite the OPEC decision to not to increase the production. Unless the new set of sanctions explicitly target countries that purchase crude from Russia (that can't be ruled out, given the pro-OPEC leanings of Biden), I foresee the prices to remain in $100-120 per barrel range.

And that is the problem with sanctions, as if the other side is powerful enough then they can enact their own sanctions as well, in this case it is not much of a sanction but instead a way to force other governments to begin to use the Ruble which will bring strength to it and debilitate the sanctions they were trying to impose to Russia.

Now some are talking about reducing the dependence on Russian oil, but there is no way they can do this fast enough with solar, wind and other renewable sources of energy, so Europe will need to adopt nuclear energy, which is something many people oppose due to the risks of a leakage and how difficult it could be to fix it, something we saw at Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Yeah, there's still a market for Russian oil, despite the US ban, Asian countries are purchasing at discounted prices. Anyway, the future is still vague regarding oil prices, which are highly volatile, but I also project that the price will sustain at approximately $100/barrel.

Currently, after a small surge in prices, which climbed up to $107 for Brent (from $104), prices are plummeting, with WTI Crude trending at $96 and Brent at $101 as we speak. This huge volatility is causing major concerns about the future.

I think that what can drive oil to reach 300USD per barrel is scarcity or what is usually called the Law of Supply and Demand, the more demand there is, the greater the supply and therefore prices rise, and if the war continues as it goes it is likely that the price will increase much more, OPEC can simply calculate a trend, but world events and fundamentals can result in the price continuing to increase, not only of oil, gasoline, oils and everything you have What to do with oil derivatives, in some cases gas is another of the problems that we have and especially in Europe, I think that the sanctions are going more towards Europe than for RUSSIA itself.