Bitcoin Forum

The Russians are currently being hammered with sanctions from the West, because of the invasion in the Ukraine. The seven Russian banks excluded from SWIFT are Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank, VNESHECONOMBANK (VEB) and VTB BANK.

This move was aimed at economically isolating Russia and crippling the Russian financial system in order to pressure the Putin regime to end its military operations in Ukraine.

I think this move will bring a new era for global monetary flows, where Russia and China and enemies of the West, will look for alternative ways to do international transactions.

Swift are doing almost 40 million messages a day and this is enabling the exchange of trillions of euros between companies and governments around the world. Swift are governed by the National Bank of Belgium and the central banks of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. (So this is more a organization that are controlled by the West)

China have already been stockpiling foreign currencies for years ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/chinese-banks-stockpile-record-1-trillion-of-foreign-currencies and Russia already have a system in place to bypass SWIFT with much higher cost ==> https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-could-work-around-swift-ban-with-high-costs-2022-03-07/

Read more about it here --> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS

So the lessons that are learnt from these Western sanctions are that a reliance on SWIFT and international global reserve currencies, should be reduced and alternative be found.

One of those alternatives might be Crypto currencies.... https://www.finyear.com/Will-crypto-help-Russia-get-around-sanctions-and-Swift-ban-No_a46926.html but Western countries are already making that difficult too..... https://www.investopedia.com/treasury-department-cracks-down-on-crypto-used-to-bypass-russian-sanctions-5220729

Do you think the enemies of the West will be successful to replace SWIFT and the use of Global reserve currencies?

Let's discuss...

If by replace we mean that the system they use will end up being adopted globally, I don't think so. If you mean a system adopted by them and a few other countries, it is possible. What I also find interesting is the window of opportunity this opens for cryptocurrencies. It seems that Russia is considering charging friendly countries for gas and oil in Bitcoin. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5391236.0)

The alternative is already here which is bitcoin but if not on a critical situation like in that of Russia i think it never worth doing away with, ordinarily sanction can not be placed on any country without being evident by everyone that what it does to deserve sanction really worth it, Russia invassion could have been avoided and all the wasted lives and properties could have been ameliorated through dialogue, the whole world believe and see to what Putin did as unethical and something that has the vote of over 95% of the entire world worth requoned with, i believe we all need the support of the western international swift in one way or the other.


let us not take the scenario of China to be compared with that of Russia, China only sit to build on it own internal systems from within and decided to cut itself from the western and  international services but still engage in maintaining a good report with the world at large regardless of any country, meaning that China was not cut off from the western and international services but willingly choose to stay off because it has built it own system good enough for survival, lastly China does not engage in any form of human massacre or it equivalent.

If Russia finally decided by going with the use of bitcoin (crypto) i think it can be pretty good because it is a decentralized system, just that the swift ban may affect some exchanges from operations else bitcoin can still be a rescue alternative.

The only issue that we have currently is Russia is public enemy number one, and anything they do, that involves Bitcoin will effect the short term of price of Bitcoin. This isn't a problem for long term investors, but if they adopted Bitcoin on a large scale, it would likely send the price down, simply because the press would be pumping out propaganda not just against Russia, but Bitcoin too. As we know from history, we can't trust the news during war, no matter what side your on, since it'll be full to the brim with propaganda.

So, if you invest into Bitcoin frequently, and take that Bitcoin back out, its probably worth considering the short term i.e a couple of months potentially years the effect Russia adopting it in some capacity would have on it short term.

All the current problems show that the central systems need to be distributed, many countries will tend to distribute their investments and not rely on a source by more than 20%.

For example, European countries will not depend on Russian gas as a main source and will try to reduce that percentage to less than 20%.
The same matter, Russia will depend on increasing its Chinese yuan, gold and a mixture of currencies that will contribute to conducting international trade away from the dollar.

Bitcoin can be a party, but it will take a lot of time before it is relied upon, especially since it is difficult for countries and governments to monetize Bitcoin, and therefore we need to wait, perhaps, until Bitcoin reaches more than 10 trillion dollars at least.

Lessons learned from Western sanctions are:

• More countries will start creating parallel regimes if there are sanctions.
• We will return to the concept of blocs, where trade will be between friendly countries and unfriendly countries.
• Countries in these blocs will try to rely more on each other and less on other unfriendly countries.
• We will not reach comprehensive international agreements on arms reductions, biological weapons, climate, and emissions reductions.
• We will get used to inflation, which may be unprecedented.
• Third world countries will be affected more.

If it wasn't wartime, they might probably be able to replace the system and implement it to their allied nations but right now, I don't think that it's possible for them to do just that because if they do then those sanctions were for nothing and that they're just a hopeless effort to stall Russia's conquest on Ukraine.

I think that trying to evade sanctions by moving into cryptos is smart, but it won't work on the scale they need it to work on. Sure, some people might save some of their fortunes this way, but the state's economy cannot be saved like this, specifically because of all those KYC requirements from crypto exchanges and because major crypto exchanges abide by the sanctions and are supportive of Ukraine. So you know what would be the smartest thing to do? Stop the goddamn war, withdraw all troops from a sovereign country, give Putin up for the Hague tribunal, choose a reasonable leader, pay for the damage the Russians caused and try to negotiate with the West about reestablishing relationships. But no, of course they'll keep making the West angry by the war, lose even more money and people on the war and cause more pain to Ukrainians.

Those sanctions will be reflected in the Bitcoin price, and today we can see how BTC is going up, that's because people don't trust in fiat while the war is going on.

Some days ago we read the news about how the Russians can't withdraw all their money in the bank, they can't get it all in fiat, but they can spend it in cryptos, and for sure that's why the crypto market capitalization has been growing in the past days.

It can be a short term force for growth of Bitcoin and Bitcoin adoption but it won't have one side effect like this. There will be adverse effect from it as well. If Russia try to legalize Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in their nation just to avoid sanction from Western nations, Western world will try to do more regulations to prevent it as much as possible. So good news first, bad news later together with massive FUDs on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

I see positively about this trend because at least it will boost the growth of cryptocurrency market faster. FUDs, I don't mind because there are always FUDs with whatever reason, in whatever year. Ukraina-Russia war, Western sanctions, Russia legalize it, etc. we will only have good news and bad news with time. Matter is because of outstanding vision from Satoshi Nakamoto and the healthy network of Bitcoin, it will have good future for who believe in and invest in it.

No. They have been using other systems for trading between themselves for years. But the West is still the strongest economic force on planet, and they get to dictate which channels to use for trade with their non-Western partners. Putin is currently trying to demand that the West pay for gas in rubles, very unsuccessfully.

Russia's attempts to seriously use Bitcoin would be a net negative for Bitcoin. China and India have already taken strong anti-Bitcoin stance. Bitcoin is the most adopted in the West, if Western governments will start viewing it in a negative light and start taking measures against it, Bitcoin would be globally pushed into the shadow economy. And there will be no more bull runs and mass adoption.

Negative in the short term definitely, however as time goes on I imagine people will start to see through their own governments, and how inflation is kicking their ass. I think we're probably the most aware we've ever been, and it's going to get better from that point of view.

The West won't ban Bitcoin just because its adopted by their enemies, it's far more likely they adopt it too to counteract the benefits its enemies have. Since, you can't effectively control Bitcoin, banning it isn't going to prevent half the world using it, since Russia, China, and all that could potentially switch their stance if they're alienated by the West.

Bitcoin is now the Global Reserve Currency. Forget about Fiat Currency. Think about only Digital Money. I am expecting by the next two years one of Digital Currency will be adopted by the Central banks as the intermediatory cross border reserve currency. US dollars is the currency of the USA, let the USD stay in USA and all the American will become the owners of 6 Billion dollars each. I don't buy oir sale in Dollars in Ethiopia. I use Digtal Currency. Future reserve currency is Bitcoin or Bitmonem Satoshi invented Bitmonem before Bitcoin. Find it out www.bitmonem.com

If Bitcoin is banned, the "hedge against inflation" narrative will just disappear, because very few people would want to break the law, plus all the long-term bullishness will just disappear. We've already seen how negatively the price reacts for just a possibility of increased regulation in the West, an actual ban would just obliterate the price.


We are very-very far from it, so at this point it's all just theorizing. But I wouldn't be so sure that Bitcoin can not be banned, circumstances can radically change in a very short time, I think the recent events have proved that to everyone.

Quite reasonable, and indeed smell the current market movement is very significant. I think we will be back above $45K again for wartime where most of the confidence levels fall in crypto, especially in Bitcoin. Fiat will get weaker as the war progresses and that is a strong reason why investors on both sides are it Russia or Ukraine even have the same operating rights to the use of Bitcoin.

Yeah, I'm not going to pretend that Bitcoin will be hit hard. Although, there will be resistance. I just don't see a world wide ban happening, so Bitcoin will always be used for me. In what scneario do you think Bitcoin becomes banned? Russia starts using it, and therefore the entire West bans it? Doesn't make much sense, we rely on Russia to a certain extent via gas, and oil. Until that changes, I don't see a threat as sanctions have to be withdrawn at some point. The UK are already feeling the crunch, our fuel has sky rocketed massively, so it does have to end. The sanctions hurt us aswell as them.

Bitcoin, being banned I just don't see it. There would be far too much resistance to it, and not any real legitimate reason. The only reason would be if Russia started using it to escape sanctions, but that would be temporary too.

This was somewhat predictable. Russia had already taken Crimea eight years prior, that was the first stage of the attack, it was always known that they didn't want Ukraine to join Nato, so when they threatened to, Russia made their move. So, this was somewhat predictable. Russia knew the amount of sanctions it would receive, and they know its not sustainable in the long run. The West as much as we like to pretend we don't need Russia, we are reliant on it. Its not as simple as switching a button, we will be reliant on them until a few years have passed at the very least.

The Russian invasion of Crimea was the aftermath of the Maidan Revolution when the West supported, then, President Yanukovych's removal. The NATO talks really didn't come to fruition until Biden was in office. Trump was more anti-NATO than most of the previous U.S. presidents so Russia probably felt more threatened by Biden than they did of Trump. Even if the sanctions were predictable (to be frank, I don't think anyone predicted this type of economic rebuke of Russia's invasion), it's clear Putin is way over his head.

Sanctions historically haven't been too successful. Reason being is that sanctions affect the ordinary people, not the government, so they're not inclined to readjust their positions unless the tanks come rolling in or if their people stage a coup.

Sooner or later it will all end and they will establish an attitude, because as we see both sides suffer, if we delve into this topic, then I think the Russian Federation will simply switch to cryptocurrency and there will be no need to transfer money via swift, I would like it all to end as soon as possible and everything to normalize.

Russia's use of Bitcoin and the ruble as their medium of exchange for their oil is something that many people don't expect.  The sanctions imposed by western countries are actually very cruel because the impact that is most felt is millions of Russian citizens ^{(Honestly i'm confused by this war, i choose neutral only)}.  by making Bitcoin one of their currencies, putin looks like he wants to ask for protection from the bitcoin community.  Bitcoin is the future of the world's global currency.

If the war begin the unique thing,not all the country placed the economic sanctions.My opinion is,their will be some hidden reasons for the Russia to fight against the Ukraine.Only the Russian government know the exact reason.The Swift move against the Russian bank was remarkable one,it had reduced the lot of the money flow in Russian economy.

The difference is that, the money is usually in the west, and they are producing a lot more of what people want. Russia and China only makes money based on what the west gives them, west (nations that use swift mainly) do not really require any money from Russia or China, they need "things" from them.

In a case where west finds better energy sources, good alternatives and wheat stocks, they do not need Russia at all, which can be done with clean energy, solar panels, nuclear plants, wind turbines and so forth which would take time but can be done.

Same goes for china, they manufacture things and that is how they make money, move those factories you have to another nation, and china would become poor all over again. All in all, west doesn't need the money these nations have, they need to use them for their resources, and if those nations start to work with another system, west will simply not work with them which would hurt east a lot more.

Well, the West are doing a piss poor effort to replace China as a mass supplier of computer chips.  ::)  The Chinese efficiency and their discipline and their ability to mass produce electronic components are not equaled by any other country.

So let's give credit ..where credit is due. The Oil and Gas that Russia are supplying ... cannot be replaced within the next 5 years, so Europe is going to rely on Russia for at least the next 5 years... and the alternative energy and other sources of Gas are going to be very expensive to replace.  ::)

It is still difficult to say how the situation in Russia will develop, in what way and how effectively Western sanctions will be circumvented there. The SWIFT banking system will not change, if only for the reason that most states condemn the aggression and war crimes of the Putin regime, and therefore will adhere to the conditions of the sanctions imposed on Russia. More and more countries refuse to trade with Russia. For now, she can count on India, China, and a few underdeveloped ones like Syria and Venezuela. But China will act in its own interests and itself will not mind using Russia's hopeless situation, so it is an unreliable partner for Russia. Russia and China may use the yuan more. Moreover, Russia kept a significant part of its reserves in Chinese banks in yuan and no sanctions were imposed on this part of the reserves. In Russia, the Chinese yuan is already freely bought through banks and bank deposits are made in this currency.