Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin price saw a massive uptick in bullish momentum in the last week, causing it to surge and retest crucial resistance barriers. The optimism stems from the fact that Terra Labs has been buying up BTC to back its stablecoin reserves.

Regardless, the uptick in price seems to have hit a dead-end and is likely to reverse its direction soon.

At wits’ end
Bitcoin price rallied 18% since 14 March and tagged the $44,439 resistance barrier for the third time. This uptrend comes after BTC set up the fourth higher low since 22 January. Connecting trend lines across these swing points results in an ascending triangle.

This technical formation forecasts a 21% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $44,439. This measurement puts the target at $53,829.

Interestingly, this target is present just above the equal highs formed at $51,993, making this outlook more appealing.

However, the uptrend is not as easy as it looks and BTC bulls need to break through multiple barriers to get to the endpoint. The daily demand zone, stretching from $45,666 to $47,758 is the first barrier BTC needs to face. Clearing this hurdle will exhaust the bullish momentum, making a further uptrend more unlikely.

A rejection at the ascending triangle’s upper trend line will indicate a weak bull camp and knock BTC down to the $41,888 support level. Failing to hold this footing will lead to a further retracement to the $37,033 barrier.

Source :https://ambcrypto.com/three-reasons-why-btc-may-correct-despite-the-recent-bullish-uptick/

seeing the price move from 38-44 is not 'bullish'. thats the standard 10-20% swing to expect.

however. whats needed to understand is the underlying bottomline value
at the lowest mining cost. (no one can get bitcoin cheaper)
 the Q4 average 2021 bottomline underlying value was ~$35k
 the Q2 2022 bottomline underlying value is ~$27k
 and Q3 2022 bottomline underlying value will be ~$25k (if hashrate is same as now)

so yes there is more 'speculative bubble' of profit above value this year,
basically the difference between $27k to $43k is pure speculative bubble

which could allow the price to correct down to under $30k in an extreme condition

yep in Q4 2021 going below $35k was a near impossible thing.
but mining costs and profitable mining has got cheaper since last year, so now there is more profit to make even if the price is still in the same $40k +-10%
the price if the hashrate doesnt increase, can see a possible decline to below $30k

so lets hope the hashrate grows to create more mining competition to bring the underlying value up to make it less worth selling down