Bitcoin Forum

It is remarkable that during all these 13 bitcoin years (2009-2021) we have witnessed no big stock market crash - the fiat money mass has only increased and increased.

During this period there have been no years like 1929 or even 2008. But when the last remarkable stock market fall emerged (in March 2020), bitcoin fell much more than major stock indexes...

How sharply will bitcoin price react to the next Big Crash ?

It will never crash 80%. It’s just not possible. Remember the covid crash? People assumed it was the end of the world and I was thinking that it would crash to the peak of the 2008 stock market top and it didn’t even go there. Had a crazy rally afterwards.

When there is a recession, everybody knows that most companies will survive or get bailed out. And during a recession there is QE and stimulus. With that there is inflation and you need to put your savings somewhere, so stock market is the perfect place.

And you are deliberately ignoring the more important thing that happened which was the fact that bitcoin recovered quickly while stock market was still dumping and then bitcoin surpassed its ATH while stock market was struggling to gain back a little bit of what it had lost.

Possibly a lot but not because there is a correlation but because people are convinced there should be and they would panic sell. But also there will be a quick and big recovery in bitcoin shortly after while the "Big Crash" continues.

I really wouldn't say "never" because markets always has it's way of surprising us one way or another, but I'd definitely put it in the "highly unlikely" territory. Not to mention that being in uncharted territory gives A LOT of market uncertainty.

Maybe it's because that we have learned so much in the previous crash that we somewhat sees the sign, thus government and traditional market mitigating the risk.

So I doubt that Dow Jones will fall to 80% in the future despite what is happening around us right now. War, inflation, and other geo-politics. It is not possible, and so as far as crypto goes, 99%? Covid was one of the worst and we didn't even see like 80% downturn in both market.

First, need to be answered here if it is possible, is it possible that it will drop 80%?
This can be related to Bitcoin which people are questioning about Bitcoin will ever drop again to below $10,000.
We have already a lot to consider now, the market, the volume on the market, and the adoption of it, especially on Bitcoin. Yes, there is somehow correlate with stock markets or Dow Jones,

I share your opinion, because if I’ve learned anything through all these years, it’s that I don’t use the term “never” when it comes to Bitcoin. However, the probability that the DJ will collapse by as much as 80% is something that is hard for me to imagine, just as the price of 1 BTC could fall below $10 000.

The latter would very likely happen in the event that the most powerful countries in the world take coordinated action with the aim of shutting down all centralized crypto exchanges and putting Bitcoin on the black list. But then we’re talking about an open war against Bitcoin, and that would be like a fight between David and Goliath - given the tools possessed by powerful states, let everyone judge who would be who in that story.

Be sure if Bitcoin goes down like at 20k USD, many people will be ready to buy a few cheap Bitcoins.
A large new low is very unrealistic because many people are watching Bitcoin to buy it cheap.
Many people missed it and probably are waiting to buy it cheap.

I can't really imagine why Bitcoin could go again under 20k USD or even 15k USD.

Bitcoin going to $20K is not the same as the Dow Jones losing 80% of its value. Even in a huge Great Depression the index would never go that low. The covid low was a perfect example, there was tons of fear of life ending due to the visit but the markets didn’t dip that much. Why would it go lower now?

Nasdaq is different, it’s mostly tech stocks which have huge losses at the moment because they were over valued however the Dow is only top 30 blue chip companies and it’s much more stable. I won’t have a 80% drawdown.

What if you die in under the time it takes to write this?


The odds are you wont die in the time it takes to write this.

The odds are the stock market wont drop 80% and btc wont drop 99%.

I place the odds over 1000 to 1 for you dying in the time it took to write this. and i place the odds of the drop you asked about over 1000 to 1.

But wtf I am just guessing and maybe you just dropped dead and the markets and btc tank like  mad cause putin nukes the ukraine.

and that would be really really really really fucked up for all of us. except for you since you would have died and not give a shit that putin nuked.

while us survivers would be afraid.


note my tongue is firmly planted in my cheek.
so dont worry about any of the above as in any case all of use will be dead in around 115 years or less.

And it also recovered way past the initial position it had before the crash. I think that speaks volumes for itself on how Bitcoin is compared to the stock market. I wouldn't say that it couldn't happen, but the odds are kinda (really) low imo. I wouldn't even know what factors would be needed to even have the chance of it even happening, but I reckon it'd be REALLY big.

I honestly think no one believed Bitcoin to be able to survive the crash, so people just sold theirs back when Covid started, but then it came back up. So chances are, next time something similar happens, I don't think Bitcoin would still crash, or well, the chances would be low imo.

It is possible. And it has happened before in history, specifically in the Great Depression.

'From peak to trough, the Dow experienced a staggering loss of 89.2%.'

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp

It is another thing to think how likely it is to happen, but it is possible.

The second worst market decline was in the 2007 crisis, when it fell by over 50% but within three years the US market recovered, so I'm not worried of a 80% market decline but I don't rule out the possibility.

The financial markets are dominated by people and the people are emotional creatures,who act like sheep sometimes(call it conformism,panic or stupidity,I don't care).
When the stock markets crashes big time,it isn't very difficult to come to the conclusion,that the crypto markets will crash as well.When the crash happens,all those panicking investors would just run away from the high risk markets(stocks and crypto) and buy gold,silver,real estate or commodities.
Will the BTC price crash more than Dow Jones?Maybe yes or maybe no.I don't care that much about this and I don't have a crystal ball to predict such outcome. ;D

Dow Jones is not entirely a balanced index.  It can fall into four figures but when you talk about a price dropping you are speculating the value of currency rising.   We have high dollar index but this is because its measured vs EURO and YEN which have value lost over many years so Dollar in ratio is higher rated now.  Stocks are to some extent beyond a fixed currency so will very often adjust upwards endlessly under weak currency, we have weak dollar now for years forward.

We haven't seen a stock market crash and how bitcoin reacts to it.

As per my analysis, Dow Jones may crash to 80% (which is highly unlikely), bitcoin may crash too but then there will be a V-shaped recovery in bitcoin. The reason is that many people will buy bitcoin at those cheap prices and this bitcoin will decouple itself from stocks.

And what happened before and after that crash? Bitcoin went up in price many times than the stock market, and even if a crash like the one we saw during the great depression happened again bitcoin will not drop as much, and there is a reason to think the price will go up incredibly quickly, after all you are forgetting bitcoin is not simply an asset but a currency, and when there is a currency crisis finding a currency which can beat inflation is critical, and bitcoin without a doubt will outperform most assets in an hyperinflation scenario.

We don't know, but it will definitely react. Whether it would react better or worse than the stock market fall, we can only guess. But an 80% fall of Bitcoin's price is always possible whether the Dow Jones falls as high as that or not.

When Bitcoin reached the ATH of around $20,000 in December of 2017 and then fell to as low as around $3,000 a year later, there wasn't a huge crash in the stock market. But still an 85% fall of Bitcoin's price happened. So anything can happen.

But I am positive that the higher the price of Bitcoin goes and the wider the adoption grows, the less possible it would fall as high as that.

From my observation, if the market in general crashes, bitcoin follows and since bitcoin and crypto are much more volatile than the other markets you see much bigger moves. So when you see a big move on the normal markets, then crypto goes crazy, both directions.

To answer your question, Bitcoin will go down but I don't think it will be 99%. Its a bit exaggerated if you will ask me.
On the other hand though, I don't expect Dow Jones to go down 80%.
Will Bitcoin drop 80% though? There is a chance since it already happened in 2018 but the chances of it to happen is very low because that time and this time is different  but it can  happen still.

How sharply? Hmmmmm maybe its lower than we could've ever imagine or it might be the opposite as well. When people don't invest in these markets, investors sees it as an opportunity and they will buy more. We saw what happened in 2020 where a few days after the crash, all of the markets went up significantly. Its because they see it as an opportunity to accumulate assets at a lower price. Exact numbers? I don't know though.

Nice trivia there, didn't knew that there are now stocks markets on 1929? That's cool. You said there was no major crash starting the time bitcoin was created but what about that 2020? I think that crash is still heavy as you special mentioned it but I think that fall on the stock market has no relation on the bitcoin markets or on why btc have fall.

It was only just a coincidence, nothing more and in fact, there are evidence that bitcoin and crypto markets are going up whenever there's a fall on the stock markets. I think that is because stock investors sells their assets and temporarily use cryptos as an escape to protect their money from further declines.

Yes. But a crash in bitcoin is different because it's simply because of fear rather than any fundamental factor or news, so that's much more scary for the users and they panic and don't know what to do. Bitcoin and other crypto is not like the normal stock market. It can be as small or as large as the people want it to be. It can be up or down or sideways but there is a psychological component there. People look at this as their emergency fund, a "what-if" or a rainy day fund. When they see something they like, they buy it and when they see something they don’t like they sell it. So it's a very self-fulfilling prophecy and it's psychologically much more scary than the stock market.

Possible, but I think the worst we can go is to hit the previous all time high of $19k and this could be the final capitulation. So it will be really crazy to see the price goes to that level, and we might hear a lot of negative things about crypto. But we've seen it before, crazy dip, then huge recovery in the bull market. Lots of scenario playing right now, but no one can see the future we will just have to prepare for the worse.

Go to coinmarketcap and choose bitcoin / USD price chart and set to all time there you will get the answer for how the price will recover after the dump, it is almost similar in long term but with short frame we will see the difference and can't able to predict the one particular pattern for its next move, this is the new investment driven by the holders alone.

Falls much more in a deep crash, but also climbs higher and with much stronger volumes in a spike/rally. Not exactly a new phenomenon, and even less surprising if you accept that the very same people investing in Bitcoin (if we want to say mainstream, then we accept this means stock investors simply diversifying their portfolio) are in stocks. So when they're liquidating or gaining more exposure in markets, they're applying the same across the board, spreading their risks across fiat, stocks, commodities, Bitcoin.

Think the extra impact on Bitcoin (fall or rise) is simply because those actions also influence pure Bitcoin speculators. OMG all the brokers are dumping/stockpiling, so me too!

S&P 500 has fallen 4% per day and 8% per week (Bitcoin 15% per day and 25% per week), and Binance has already paused withdrawals...

Lets imagine what will happen if the fall is (remarkably) bigger !

Why does everyone imply Bitcoin is linked to the American financial system?

Every price is bound to the Dollar, its the global reserve currency but there are bigger factors outside of the next high.  I think the next high in BTC is with Dollar making a proper low, it didnt do that this time really

Currency (backing) is weaker then stocks, just doesnt really add up to have a boulder split by a block of cheese :p   If they put the FED rate at 20% then sure we can see DOW into 4 figures or something along those lines.  I will say currency is weaker because its backed by debt and most of its short term so when they raise the rates its consuming the entire fiscal budget with zero left for even defence, etc.   Thats just not probable, weak currency is the weather this year and every year till we hit the 50 year storm & default.
  Even in chaos the companies quoted are global and not falling bound to just one economy.   Ditto BTC isnt one perspective, price highs reflect speculative appetite but BTC base case isnt reliant on excess easy money, its bound to greater factors I would hope then politics and its monetary debasement.

The beginning of the year when the bitcoin price continued to fall from ATH and dropped below $50k there was a lot of speculation saying the trend would repeat every 4 years, now it's becoming more real, although many say it's due to external factors, namely inflation in the USA but I hope this isn't the beginning from death.