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#!/bin/bash
if [[ $# -ne 1 ]]; then
    echo 'Input the miner hashing power in GH/s as an argument' >&2
    exit 1
fi
miner_hashrate=$(($1 * 10**9)) #GH/s is 10**9, TH/s is 10**12 and so on...

function jsonValue() { KEY=$1; num=$2; awk -F"[,:}]" '{for(i=1;i<=NF;i++){if($i~/'$KEY'\042/){print $(i+1)}}}' | tr -d '"' | sed -n ${num}p; }
difficulty=`curl -sSL "https://mempool.space/api/blocks/" | jsonValue difficulty 1`
echo "Current difficulty: $difficulty"
total_hashes=`echo "4295032833.000015 * ${difficulty}" | bc -l`

miner_chances=`echo "${miner_hashrate} * 60 * 10 / ${total_hashes}" | bc -l`
miner_chances_percentage=`echo "${miner_chances} / 100" | bc -l`
echo "Miner chances of mining next block: ${miner_chances_percentage}%"

hours_per_block=`echo "${difficulty} * $((2**32)) / ${miner_hashrate} / 60 / 60.0" | bc -l`
days_per_block=`echo "${hours_per_block} / 24" | bc -l`
years_per_block=`echo "${days_per_block} / 365" | bc -l`
echo "Expected time to mine next block:"

if (( $(echo "${hours_per_block} < 48" |bc -l) )); then
  echo "${hours_per_block} hours"
elif (( $(echo "${days_per_block} < 365" |bc -l) )); then
  echo "${days_per_block} days"
else
  echo "${years_per_block} years"
fi

chmod +x get_prob.sh

./get_prob.sh 300
Current difficulty: 28225928151211
Miner chances of mining next block: .00000000001484765218%
Expected time to mine next block:
12813.86757025801071742939 years