Bitcoin Forum

Forget all indicators , sentimental and fundamental discussion! Did any one calculate the theoretical value of BTC and identify its variance from the actual price?

Isn't sentiment analysis simply a market behavior synonymous with how traders make purchases by confirming them through news or rather to individual sentiment predictions? It depends on how the trader sees the movement of Bitcoin from day to day. While Fundamental means focusing on economic data that we often find today through quantitative data.

Bitcoin will never be separated from technical, fundamental and sentimental analysis. Because the current price adrift behavior is due to supply and demand. Therefore, the actual price is of course the price you see today.

Thank you for your reply , I agree with you but If nominal value is the actual price, then real value is what should have been the price. Real value refers to the nominal value when adjusted for inflation, meaning they are adjusted for general price level changes over time. If data are adjusted for inflation, then they are said to be real values.

It has admittedly been a long time since I did an analysis of the network, but the last time I did I found a fair value assessment of around $4,000.  Granted that was probably 6 years ago, but I haven't seen any real value additions to give the network more real value since that time.  Sure, there's been a little more adoption and inflation is out of control, so without doing any actual analysis and pulling a number out of my ass, I'd say that the true value of Bitcoin at this point is probably closer to $10,000 than the price we're seeing in the markets today.  This is because everyone is investing so they aren't left behind if true adoption is reached and the valuation skyrockets.  It's a gamble buying Bitcoin, and I think everyone knows that.  The thing with investments is that you're investing in the unknown, not the known.  So the $40,000 valuation we're seeing on exchanges takes into account that people think Bitcoin has a bright future.  Whether or not the actual future is greater or less than expectations will determine if the price rises or falls from here.  Personally, I'm starting to feel like people are forecasting a brighter future than will be realized for Bitcoin, but I do have my fingers crossed.

Ofc, this is so simple. People try to overcomplicate things.


I don't think this kind of analysis fits here.

For example, USD inflation over the last 12 years was 32% (https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=1).

So, a 1 USD in 2010, should be now, adjusted to inflation, 1.32 USD.

But you cannot use this metric with bitcoin, because it really gained value beyond the 32% inflation over the last 12 years.

Bitcoin price in 2010 was something like 0.10 USD. But the actual price now isn't 0.13, but 40,000

Can this concept be used in other fields?
Lots of assets and stocks have grown over time as they increase their userbase and demand grows. That's how investments work, you invest in something you feel has the potential to grow with time; as more people become aware and demand grows against supply.

Indicators are what you have to go by. And sentiments is imperative in a speculative market.

I'm curious to know what process was used to arrive at that value. Some believe the acrua value is a consequence of the cost of production, some others would argue that the value is in its utility. All these are speculations of course and I'm not convinced there's a reliable metric that can be used to valuate an asset like Bitcoin.

I really think if China hadn’t banned bitcoin we would have seen $120,000+ in the bull run. As it was $69,xxx was the top & we’re now entering a bear market. The fair price of bitcoin is what it is, the market decides that.

We will moon again, we will break $100,000 after the next halving but for now we are in a bear market & you should be DCA’ing.

If USD loses 32% of its value since the day bitcoin gain its price first. Then you can use it against the bitcoin current price in which the so called real value is something 12,700 if based on USD.

But bitcoin isn't just calculate ove USD value but to everything people thinks, precious metals and other local currency.

But it doesnt work like that, so why complicate things.

So.i was having a mental analysis of Bitcoin and its market behavior over time I almost concluded the true value of Bitcoin can only be in its usability and at that price reflection does not mean that much because Bitcoin over time have gained over inflation other assets on the stock market.

when it halves you are cuting the miners revenue in half

it will at least make up that half / double in the lead up to the halvening

I believe there is no consensus for calculating the value of Bitcoin, as there is for calculating the value of a company. For a company, the basics would be to add up all its assets and subtract its liabilities. From there, other factors have to be taken into account, such as the cash flow trend over the last 5 years, as a company that has had a decreasing cash flow and this last year is in losses is not the same as another that has had an increasing cash flow, even though the former may have a positive net worth.

In the case of bitcoin, the fundamental issue is demand, as we already know that supply is limited and finite. As with gold, it is not possible or very difficult to calculate the real or intrinsic value as there are no cash flows.

Well if you think of bitcoin as just a set of numbers and a few letters and words which became commands then rules that govern its blockchain, then it really isn't worth much. But, if you look at it in a broader sense, you will realize that it is truly worth a lot. Heck, by it's limited supply and the way it's demand is skyrocketing as mass adoption is increasing, the price ranges it is currently hovering at today is way too cheap compared to what it should be.

If we are talking exclusively about comparing Bitcoin with fiat in terms of value, then it is completely pointless to try to determine any meaningful value based on any solid facts. Bitcoin will be worth exactly as much as the market determines its value at all times, and that market is very small compared to some other markets such as the gold or stock markets.

As silly as it may seem to some, the real value of Bitcoin is not what it represents in fiat currency, but in what Bitcoin represents from the Genesis block to the present day - and it is the first decentralized cryptocurrency created as an alternative to the existing financial system. The fact is that anyone can transfer some value at any time, without the mediation or approval of any institution or bank to anyone anywhere in the world.

That’s the real value, no matter how much we started moving away from that idea and following what started a few years ago when some big players started promoting Bitcoin exclusively as digital gold.

Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies has no any intrinsic value. Its value is depends on the trust of people over government. When these coin got trust then its price will pump but when people got negative trust from any bad news then its price will go in dip.

I think that the real value of bitcoin is the current one. I mean that the true value of bitcoin we give it every day depending on the circumstances.
The first quarter of the year has come to an end, a complicated quarter worldwide. Reason for which both bitcoin and large industries have had instability in their prices.
As is known, there is a high risk of investment that stops the feeling of buying, at present the energy items are on the priority list to be able to satisfy the demand of the current crisis.
For those of us who love to invest in bitcoin, we do it despite the moment because it already forms our lifestyle.

values (note the s) is the features and benefits.
value(no s) is the financial number

anyway value, based on how i view it. and it has worked well for me over the years to view the value window which the bitcoin price sits within at any given time

network hashrate   203,000,000thash
hashrate/asic unit   140   thash
hardware cost/unit   $11,620   
      
asics running      1,450,000   
hardware cost 2 year   $16,849,000,000   
hardware cost /block   $160,467   
hardware cost /coin   $25,675   
      
hardware kw/unit   3.01   kw
hardware kw network   4,364,500   kw
      
cheapest asic power cost per kwh $0.04   
cheapest network power cost per hour   $174,580.00   
cheapest network power per block   $29,096.67   
cheapest network power per coin   $4,655.47   
lowest 'value'   $30,330.13 (hardware+power cost per btc $25,675+$4,655.47)
      
expensive asic power cost per kwh $0.38   
expensive network power cost per hour   $1,658,510.00   
expensive mine power/block   $276,418.33   
expensive mine power/coin   $44,226.93   
highest value   $69,901.60  (hardware+power cost per btc 25,675+$44,226.93)

thus value window is between $30k-$70k
and no its not a coincidence that while hashrate has been in this range that the price has been bouncing between $30k-$70k

no one on the planet can mine for less than $30k. hense good buy support at $30k because no one wants to sell at a loss, as no one can profit at below $30k

everyone on the planet can mine for less than $70k. hense good sell resistance  at $70k because no one wants to buy at premium, as everyone can mine for less than $70k

6 months ago, previous asics were ~50% less efficient and the hashrate was ~50% less(balancing out). thus the window was about the same back then too

I remember someone asked similar thing like this one, he thought the actual price of Bitcoin is from the cost of mining Bitcoin including the electricity cost, maintenance, setting up the mining places, mining rigs, difficulties etc. But the cost will varies from each miners, each locations and also the rigs itself. So you can't really calculate the actual Bitcoin's price. However even you have calculate the actual price, it's useless since the price on the market determined from supply and demand.

So, what you are saying is that we would simply need more "minning power" to increase the price of bitcoin?

Very interesting.

It has both separated long long time ago, but also not separated at all. I am saying it separated long time ago because if Elon Musk could tweet and increase the price of bitcoin, then it means economic data has no meaning, if we could have Biden go out and say he loves bitcoin and the price goes up then there is no economic data to talk about.

This is the part where it has separated long time ago, there is also a part where it is highly connected as well. That part is the fact that while these things are not happening, when there is nothing that separates it, days like today for example where there is no big news, it is all connected to economic data. So, it is both connected, but separated at the same time.

One could calculate how much Bitcoin production and maintenance costs per coin, I guess, although even that it quite hard because often it's not easy to assess how much is paid for electricity, for instance, how much people who work on sustaining mining farms get paid (and whether one should include that in the calculations) etc. But what's the point of doing that? Even if the calculations are done perfectly well, and it turns out that Bitcoin should cost, for example, $10k per coin, it won't change anything on the market, because the symbolic trust and value people put into the currency matters much more.

Between all comments that I got , I agree with you more than anyone else , but there are still countries may hire cheaper electricity !

Many Russian oligarchs recently changed their rubles to BTC, pumped the coin and shortly sold them out in trade with properties in Turkey and Dubai , maybe this is the reason that now bitcoin is playing between 30k and 31K.

Do you have any proof of this? I've seen that mentioned a few times by some youtubers and there were people who looked for any proof in the blockchain and could find none. Since the sanctions were imposed there wasn't any change in volume coming from Russia. The only pump that we've seen in the recent month was the one coming from Luna.

Bitcoin isn't trading at 30k because of the Russians. If you're looking for explanations, open a chart for Nasdaq for the last 3 months and compare it with bitcoin.

What is the real value? It's really hard to say, but I don't agree with people who say that the price we see on centralized exchanges is the value. In fact it has very little to do with real value and a great example of that is the crash in 2020, where 1 day it was trading for around 8k USD and 2 days later it was 4k, so what was the real value back then? 4k? 8k? A week after the crash iut was 7k again, so maybe 7 was the real value?
Exchanges suffer from lack of liquidity and they can't be used to measure value. All they can do is show price, but even that should be taken with a grain of salt, which is why we have moving averages.