Bitcoin Forum

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, spoke about Bitcoin and predicted that it will reach a value of $1 million by 2030. This information could be quite useful for those who love Holdear.

I find the article quite interesting, because even with the current problems of the market that Bitcoin has gone through this year, with the war in Ukraine and Russia, what remains of the pandemic and others, Arthur Hayes continues to trust his prediction. He has a very clarifying point of view, explaining that
I even highlight an important part, I comment that in all this, gold will also benefit, hoping that it will reach $20,000 when inflation reaches a point where the United States Federal Reserve has to implement Yield Curve Control.
https://i.imgur.com/6A3nn8D.jpg?1


Source of information: https://zycrypto.com/1m-bitcoin-bitmex-founder-hayes-explains-how-bitcoin-is-en-route-to-shattering-this-price-level/

Giving my point of view, it is clear that with the current problems Bitcoin remains in a bearish period, but we should not be alarmed, let alone be disappointed. I support what Hayes says, I am one of the people who likes to keep BTC stored in their wallet, to wait for the moment this explodes.

What do you mean by storing BTC in their wallet? do you collect BTC on BitMEX exchange? if it doesn't make a sale why not keep it from the exchange?

I don't think Bitcoin will ever hit a high, due to the fact that the price of Bitcoin will gain more and more value as adoption continues. During bearish moments we are given many opportunities to continue saving. But no one knows when it will hit $1 million?

Based on the article "Hayes predicts that the Western economy, especially the European Union will collapse".

It is said that the European economy will face hard times and the same will boost the growth of bitcoin as more countries adopt bitcoin to overcome the crisis. These are all simply predictions. As the market is speculative, in the past such news used to make some disturbance on the market. Nowadays thinking is different, and people clearly understand that the prediction is about the year 2030. It is good to think about the moment and now the market is on the bearish track. Possibly it takes time for re-bounce.

Isn't this the same guy that recently gave a prediction for bitcoin to go to 30k USD? I wouldn't trust in his speculation too much. After all this mane makes money every time you make a bet, so his goal is to make you bet and the more you bet, the better it is for him and his company.
Personally, I feel like leverage trading is worse than gambling because you're betting so that other people with more money can make or break your bets as they please and Arthur and his likes are making money anyway. You can be winning or losing, they make money, so they will keep making these "predictions" in hope that it will make you feel like you can make money following them.

Everyone is predicting that the price of BTCitcoin would reach a million dollars, since you are here now, would you be investing in the coin when the price reaches those valuation or you will be planning to book your profit. Everyone here has a target when they are investing and i am not expecting the price to reach a million dollars considering there will be only institutional investors willing to invest at any rate.

Another astronomical prediction coming from the CEO of a crypto company with a long time span just to make sure people will forgot his prediction when the time come if it fails while he can easily recover it once it happened. This is a typical mind conditioning tactic of crypto whales whenever there’s a bullish sign to keep people on still buying despite of a downtrend. This kind of prediction useless unless it was proven later on but who will wait for 8 years just to find the result. I’m sure many of us will already flip when new ATH occur then just bought back during correction like this.

If there is a right English to hiss at his statements, I will love to do that to this myopic speculations with bitcoin to $1m. Says someone who confesses and was found guilty of money laundering^[1] on Bitmex has become the voice of bitcoiner and a motivational person, what will come out of his mouth than a uni-directional bitcoin price level.
This reminds me of McAfee (soul rest in peace) and his cruise bitcoin price prediction, also promised to cut off his dick if bitcoin never attained such a level some years back but here we are. Let's leave bitcoin from unnecessary price predictions, it has managed to come this far, what led him here will take it to $1m and it is going to be a shock to everyone just the way they are afraid to buy now at $38k


[1] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founders-cryptocurrency-exchange-plead-guilty-bank-secrecy-act-violations

A few days ago I took the time to read about this investor and his supposed predictions, which I understand would work as a kind of “rebound effect” in this case. Currently we must focus on the present but we well know that the two most active and well-known cryptoactives worldwide (ETH and BTC) are not going through a very favorable moment, these being Ethereum down 2.14% and Bitcoin down 1.59%, ranging from $37k to $38k. Where this character predicts an imminent market crash. Getting to the point where Bitcoin is at $30k and Ethereum at $2K as well as altcoins will also be hit hard.

https://i.imgur.com/J7DANCI.png?1

So, more or less explaining Hayes's prediction, it is at this point where, as I said, the "rebound effect" would occur, which will reach a point where it will fall, but a rebound will occur that will make it rise, at this case it would be a bullish chain and according to the prediction Bitcoin would be hovering around the million dollars approximately ten years

https://i.imgur.com/fvUlz3s.png?1
graphic description of the rebound.

You keep saying problem but the problem that bitcoin market is facing is not that it is not reaching new ATH, the biggest problem (which happens to be a very new issue) is that a lot of people suddenly decided that after 13 years bitcoin should start following the US stock market movements for no reason! Since US stock market is having a lot of dumps, consequently they start dumping bitcoin too hence preventing the rise from happening.

That is a very bold prediction. Since he is heavily invested in bitcoins himself and part of the crypto community it is nice to read that he has such big projections for the upcoming years. I am a little big more cautious when it comes to the future bitcoin price. Don't get me wrong, I also believe in a long term upwards trend of bitcoins. We will see a new ATH for sure in the next few years. A bitcoin price of 100,000 or 200,000 USD seems possible during the next rally. But going to 1m USD in 7.5 years is a long way to go. I would already be happy if we are around 300k USD at 2030. For the HODL investors that would be an amazing profit, I am just wondering at what price levels we will see large amounts of bitcoins being sold from them. The higher the price will rise, the more of the HODL investors will start to selling their coins.

I don't usually trust people with economic interests when they make these kinds of predictions either, although it doesn't seem so far-fetched to me. Even if we are conservative and apply only a multiplier of 3 times the maximum of prices of the next cycles could occur. From the previous cycle to this one there was a 3.5 multiplier between maximums, and it was the lowest in history. So I think it is quite likely that by 2030 we will have or will have reached a million dollar price.

You really don't need to listen from those guys, obviously they have their own narrative to push bitcoin = $1 million.

As for the problems? again, this is not a problem but a cycle. Perhaps majority here has been in the bull run but haven't seen the bears taking over. But money can be made in this period. You just need to accumulate as many as you can and then wait for the bull run. At least in my opinion, then next bull run might push the price to at least $100k.

@Wimex, speculation has a place in the Economic -> Speculation board.

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I can understand that you are fascinated by big numbers, but things like this appear in public only to promote the company of the person in question - and it has nothing to do with the fact that this person predicting what will happen in 8 years in the future. He's not the only one trying to profit (in the media sense) from associating his name with $1 million for 1 BTC, and no matter what happens in 2030, no one should invest in anything just because some so-called expert says so.


What then? Will you sell all your BTC and set sail in the twilight? Ah yes, I forgot that everything revolves around profit, at least for most...

I also saw the article about the prediction of bitcoin price where they leave bitcoin will reach the 1 million dollars in 2030, the first this is we cannot be sure even about just a few hours and when we are talking about 2030 that's nearly 8 years which is a long time so none can be sure about it and the prediction can be harder, but if you consider the inaction rate in the world and the rise of the bitcoin you can see the price of bitcoin can really reach this level because comparing to the past ten years, the speed of rising inflation is also increasing, so it's not just about bitcoin but in 2030 many assets like gold and energies like gas will increase that high.

I do believe that 1 million dollars is not just a narrative to push but basically hopes of everyone who invested into bitcoin. Not that it means it has to reach there, but we all hope that it does so that we could profit from it a lot, wouldn't be a bad thing, maybe not next cycle but a few cycles down the road.

However, I agree with the other part because we all believe that the bear is such a sad place and moment and we hate seeing it low where in fact it is the best time to buy bitcoin. If you bought it at 39k today, and it reaches 60k+ by the end of the year, that is a great increase that would help you, and that's within half a year, imagine what it could be in a few years.

I think the price of bitcoin to reach $1 million in 2030 would require a long rally and would also have to multiply around 25 times from its current price level. Although it is impossible to judge whether the prediction is credible or not at this time, but I think that the prediction seems very far-fetched and far-fetched.

Obviously making it up doesn't mean it's not going to be possible but it's totally unreasonable with the near future but expecting the price to break through $1 million dollars.
Just logically, how to think now and see how the market has developed so far...?

I also have great confidence in Bitcoin, despite all the difficult circumstances we are facing. I am confident that Bitcoin will regain its position soon. There are many factors that made Bitcoin face a decline, but this will not last long. I expect that we will witness a rise soon in the fourth quarter of this year. I also expect that Bitcoin achieves a new ATH before the end of this year, so I think this is the best time to buy more BTC and HOLD until we see a new high.

This is basically a way for him to make it to the headlines without having to pay any amount of money as he knows a statement like this will make it to the news, can bitcoin reach that price during that time? Of course, but does it makes a difference if it reaches 500k or 800k instead? What should worry us is if we can actually hold our coins for 8 additional years, as the majority of the people currently invested in bitcoin now will fail to hold their bitcoin for that long.

I do agree that the price will go up for sure. I am not sure about the price being that high would be a possibility this year, it could drop a bit and that could result with a bad situation for all of us, but even if it doesn't drop, even if it goes up, I am not sure about ATH.

I feel like Q4 will bring us 50k+ and that would be all, somewhere between 50k to 55k and stay there until end of the year. Then by 2023 we are going to see the ATH broken all over again. This is something that I am guessing though, I am not entirely sure if it will happen or not but breaking ATH next year seems like a thing that will probably happen instead of it happening this year.

As Arthur Hayes prediction indicated that this gigantic price might be occur during 2030 and not this year. It's impossible for Bitcoin to grow that price for a short period of time since it requires a lot of liquidity to pump the price at that level.

Yes 50K to Old ATH is the most possible outcome of the price after this current bear season. The price just need to consolidate at strong support at 30K area in able to fuel the bull trend again.

I'm curious what will happen on the way to 2030 because it will surely be a thrilling year for bitcoin price to go up and down more often than ever. Just now the price of bitcoin has gone up and down many times and the price can make us never think we will be at that level. But the current bitcoin price needs to increase and go back to the ATH price and then increase gradually. When the bitcoin price gets above $100k, it's bound to go up and down more often.

I don't think any of the long-term predictions have really changed, despite a bear market to predictable levels, notably the 4 Year MA, oversold conditions, etc, ie nothing out the ordinary.

The only concern is that there wasn't a blow-off top in 2021, taking prices much higher >$100K, but this doesn't mean there won't be another blow off top in another cycle for specific reasons, such as mass traditional bank adoption of Bitcoin, or further adoption by nation states, particularly much larger ones, for example within the EU. Imagine a country leaving the EEA for BTC? Even if Bitcoin becomes considerably overbought, there will be some nations, banks and institutions that will buy it regardless, even if only 1% of their capital, in order to reduce fiat risk. This could have an enormous impact on price.

What's more interesting to note is that Arthur Hayes is usually very bearish on price  - understandably as founder of a derivatives exchange, so profits directly from volatility in both directions - therefore a long-term bullish prediction from him has a lot more credit than the likes of Tom Lee or Mike Novogratz, who are notoriously over-bullish on Bitcoin's price, often getting price predictions wildly wrong.

Either way, I'd take this prediction with a grain of salt. It could take until 2040 or 2050 for Bitcoin to see frequent worldwide usage, or otherwise by 2030 price could be at $1K!

Unfortunately, before we reach the levels of one million dollars for Bitcoin, which may take about 10 years, the possibility of a third world war seems promising, which will make the calculations of reaching these levels very foggy.
Therefore, I personally see that the next cycle will be the last traditionally, and then either we will witness rapid growth towards one million or a return to levels below a thousand dollars.

Its fine to take ten years to reach to a million dollars, there isn't anything wrong with that. How many investments out there that you could put in 20k range right now and could get you a million dollars by the decade end? I personally feel like there could be a few, but not as many as people think.

Plus, if anything extraordinary happens again, that would be a lot quicker as well and that matters. We had a pandemic which allowed us to see 68k a lot quicker, and if we end up having another global crisis then we are going to see a million dollars quicker than 2030 as well.

I still hope nothing like that happens again but this is a world we live in that doesn't shock me anymore when something big happens. Some people do predict about getting into one million dollar levels by the cycle of next halving; but personally not sure about exact time frame for that price levels but always confident about getting into those miracle numbers.

I think that people approach very frivolously the concept of a possible new world war when it comes to the relationship of that war to previous world wars. The amount of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in addition to conventional armaments would mean the practical end of the human species - and all great powers know that such a war must be avoided at all costs. If that were not the case, the EU, Japan and the US would have already declared war on Russia, and thus on China as its ally.


Such a development of events is extremely unlikely for me personally, because as I have already written, I do not believe in a new world war, and I do not see why only the price of Bitcoin would be a decisive factor in its success. Those who advocate Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme keep saying that sooner or later the whole thing will collapse - but they've been saying that for more than 10 years and they won't give up on those ideas.

I, on the other hand, believe that Bitcoin is on its way to even greater adaptation to the existing systems and that it is not all about how much it is worth - because we have to be honest and say that even at this moment it is worth far more than what the majority hoped for 5+ years ago.

It may sound far-fetched if the price of bitcoin is predicted to reach $1 Million in 2030. There are many factors that drive the bitcoin price increase in the future. The thing that has most played a role in driving the rise of bitcoin is the high demand, and more and more large companies are adopting bitcoin. Therefore, we do not know how the bitcoin price will develop in the future and whether more large companies will adopt bitcoin.

For now yes it may sound impossible because we haven't been into 100k, 300k, and 500k dollars but as soon as we touch those levels, the rest are going to be easy. Remember, people before won't also believe that btc can reach 17k usd on the year of 2017 but after btc proves that it can, people then made higher predictions.

Adoption is one of the factors which can drive the price up. As now, many countries or people are still not into bitcoin but it is expected that they will soon join this trend because the popularity of btc is also increasing. Those who decided to drop btc before are also going to pick it up again because they are afraid to be left behind.