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This was published in 2021 in the official EU portal:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/es/ip_21_2685 (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/es/ip_21_2685)


Just to put it in context, Belarus has 9 million habitants. This investment would be very significant.

Is the opportunity gone? Lukashenko has shown that, while having the RF as largest commercial partner at the moment, the EU may be the future. It may catch you as a surprise but there are actual EU funded projects ongoing.

https://euprojects.by (https://euprojects.by)


Do you think the support to the Russian cause will cause these aids to cease? Is the relationship broken forever?

Not completely gone, countries need to trade with each other with products, its the progress but they don't need to be democratic to execute trade and build projects together.

Why should a country really need to be democratic?  Why do we need them to be democratic, its their government, its not for EU or Us to do that.
Its too obvious that they are now trying to lift the sanctions to Belarus, its just like what happen to Venezuela which its sanctions are also lift because they need its gas.
Russia sits beside Belarus. The tables are turned actually, its the rest of EU who needed to be friendlier with Belarus and Russia.

If it was not "broken" when the Ryanair flight hijack was done, I don't see what this war can change. Both have identical root cause: they have there a a dictatorship and that man has obviously chosen Putin's ways, instead of allowing in the "western" democracy.

The only problem I see is that this kind of funds are allocated for certain financial cycles and the people of Belarus may still have that ruler there when the curent cycle ends.

The EU indirectly working against the plan of Lukashenko as he wants to completely be ruling Belarus, as he is very friendly with Russia, EU will still try better approach to make this possible but it is getting more difficult and getting more impossible especially if Russia dominates in the present Ukraine war.

It is Belarusian government not EU, that is true, but when many countries break away from USSR, the countries did not break away to be dictators or to practise dictatorial system of government, Belarus is not a dictatorial government, but their present president makes it dictatorial with the power he has.

As it is stated in the OP, it is published in 2021 before the Ukraine war started, Ukraine war started in 2022. The question Pamax is asking is that, what will happen after Belarus strongly supports Russia, will the EU plan to provide aid in support for democratic government in Belarus possible?

Russia is not friendly with NATO, Nato is like a threat to Russia, where will the friends come when one see one as enemy?

EU buys influence in many countries, and it's one of the things I don't like about EU.

How did he show that? From what I've seen, he wants the opposite.

No. EU continuously wants to expand (which is another thing I don't like about EU). There is no "forever". If Russia would play their cards right, I have no doubt EU would send them money too. A new "EU friendly" president in either of those countries would change everything again.

I considered myself Belarus a puppet regime, cosy with Adolf Putin and all that. It turns out that is not that much. The opposition in Belarus is much stronger than in the RF and Putin has put Lukash in a very difficult positions. Sanctions have killed the dream of having a tech-hub in the country, the army has opposed strongly any order to help Putin in Ukraine and, on top of that, the opposition has actually sent soldiers to Ukraine... to fight on the Ukrainian side.

Lukash has been accepting cooperation with EU, perhaps I overreached when saying he would accept democratic reforms.

honestly, Belarus and Russia also need Europe because their trade mostly comes from European countries.. if they choose to trade with Asian countries or those they are friendly with, they need to give them discounts and the distance they have to travel also further away than to European countries

Belarus would never break the union with Russia and get close to the European Union. Even Lukashenko's successor won't be able to escape Russia's dominance.
If Lukashenko somehow gets replaced by a pro-western president, Belarus will turn into Ukraine 2.0 and Russia will find an excuse to invade the country and start a war. Nobody wants that(maybe except USA).
3 billion euro for a country with 9 million people are just peanuts, but those money would be enough to buy the loyalty of members of the Belarusian political elite. Anyway, I don't think that Lukashenko and his regime will be replaced anytime soon. The Belarusian opposition has been successfully oppressed and Lukashenko has the support of Putin.

Currently I do think all of the EU countries will be heavily affected by the situation that's been happening in Ukraine, with the problem with the import of grains they would be dealing with short lived inflation which ofc would be somehow taken care of but one must understand that what they are doing is deplorable and is getting immense criticism. You think Belarus will keep associating with them ?
-Well till now they have been helping them out with the drills and everything but I do think when any big body steps in they would be out faster than a rabbit. Russia have very few allies that they are supplying with cheap oil and other things, selling it in their currency, I think they both are benefiting from that but they have to stop otherwise they would get intense criticism, BUT some of the people from the country are coming together for Ukraine as well.
Read here about their ties with Russia:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-support-russia-why-ukraine-b2070413.html%3famp (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-support-russia-why-ukraine-b2070413.html%3famp)
 https://www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1101265753/russia-ukraine-belarus-belarusian-volunteers-poland?t=1654172676400 (https://www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1101265753/russia-ukraine-belarus-belarusian-volunteers-poland?t=1654172676400)

I don't think we can be sure of anything of any sort right now.

You didn't highlight the important part:


Basically, Belarus has to prove itself to be a democracy before even smelling that money, how many chances do you think it has with Lukaseshnko still in power? Second, why would he give up power for 3 billion that will help his country, and just like any EU cooperation funds are harder to be diverted and stolen when he could simply take like before whatever he wants.

This was just a political move to show we are ready to do something once he is visiting the pet cemetery, so the people would know there will be no complete vacuum, but it matters zero in the actual context. The chances of Belarus changing are the same as North Korea, even if by a god's miracle Lukashenko would have an epiphany in one week there will be another special operation and no more Belarus.

So, we could talk about China buying F35 with BTC from the US, it has the same chance of happening.


As a guy living in a country that joined the EU half a century after the Netherlands did, and who has benefited immensely from this, can I say that forum Switzerland should do something really naughty with his non-neutral opinions ??  :D ::)

The problem of Belarus is that its, today’s illegitimate ruler, wants everything at once, and as the popular proverb says, “sit ass on two chairs at once”, and in Lukashenka’s version, it looks like it’s on five chairs at once :) He wants with the EU (there money and other amenities), at the same time he is with Russia - because you can beg for money from Putin in exchange for all sorts of garbage. And in general, he wants to be a kind of pocket Fuhrer in his own country, because. on the one hand, he is envious that Putin managed to make a "controlled biomass" out of the population, on the other hand, he is very scared that in Belarus there is a massive rejection of him as a ruler. Another side is the situation with Ukraine. The army of the Republic of Belarus essentially refused to fight against Ukraine, helping the world terrorist Russia. Part of the population of the Republic of Belarus generally helps Ukraine in the fight against terrorists. Both the army and volunteers (these are not tame dogs from the police and riot police) can turn their barrels in his direction, and then his head will fly separately from the body, and very quickly! And all this in the complex suggests that he does not have long left, no matter what nonsense he carries on the air of Belarusian channels. Yes, and the EU, I want to see normal power on its borders, and not like Lukashenka. Therefore, the change of power and its normalization in Belarus is a matter of fairly close prospects. The people of Belarus deserve a good life and normal government. Жывe Бeлapycь !

And tell me who is not buying influence today, if we take into account the most powerful countries in the world? If you look at what China or the US are doing on this issue, but also what Russia has been doing for 20-30 years, then I would say that the EU is very incompetent in its efforts.


I also do not think it is wise for the EU to expand to the east, especially not for countries that are far from any cultural and civilizational norms to become part of the EU. If you look at the example of Serbia, which is a candidate country and has already closed a good part of the negotiating chapters while pursuing the same policy within the country with which they committed the greatest war crimes since WW2, then it is clear that all Russian crimes and actions will be forgotten in the future.

In fact, Putin does not need bigger allies than the current French president or German chancellor, and the latter is one of the main obstacles in the EU's attempt to tighten its grip on Russia - new sanctions after 100 days of war? They do not help anyone, but only keep the patient alive and the enemies at a safe distance.

Even without the outbreak of this Ukraine invasion President Alexander Lukashenka would never have accepted this €3 billion package. It is like a bait or a Greek gift. The requirement to access this grant or support is a democratic transition and this means Lukashenka will be voted out as president. In a free and fair transition process Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya or her husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski would clearly defeat him. Putin would be willing to double the sum EU is offering because Lukashenka is a worthy and strategic ally. Don't forget that Lukashenka owes Putin, hence the former is totally loyal to the later. Accepting the grant would be disloyalty to Russia. And for now Russia is a strategic trading partners Belarus and the later depends on the former in almost every sector of its economy and military.Russia accounts for 49 percent of the Belarusian foreign trade. Last year trade (https://mfa.gov.by/en/bilateral/russia/) between both countries amounted to $ 40.1 billion, with exports to Russia reaching $ 16.4 billion and imports from Russia — $ 23.7 billion. For now, the autocratic government of Russia would not want top displease Russia.

I don't see a reason for Belarus to have any relations with the European Union. They have chosen their side by being allied with Russia and supporting the Ukrainian invasion and even held and supported Russian troops near the borders. First of all, their government is Russian-friendly and that would cause an outrage from Putin and secondly, I highly doubt that Belarus wants to have relations with the EU.

Do you seriously believe in the existence of Russia after it loses the war to Ukraine? And after the entire civilized world, in fact, will erase this territory of evil from the world map? I do not recommend believing in fairy tales! :)
True, this will not happen "tomorrow", but most likely in 2023. I confess honestly - I thought that already this year, assuming that Putin is even smarter. But it turned out that I was wrong in this assumption :) I assumed that this parody of the Fuhrer would be smart enough to save the army (after all, he is afraid of everything that surrounds him), but he decided to completely destroy it about Ukraine. Well, so be it, it will be easier to deputinize and de-Russian them later :)

Lukashenko is cut from the same cloth as Putin and was actually trying to position himself to take over from Yeltsin before Putin got a grip on power. Once these two greedy and selfish old men run out of time it will free an opportunity up a small window of opportunity for these countries yet again. Unfortunately these windows often get seized by the next dictator instead of offering a chance for democracy and innovation to thrive.

What really surprises me about the adherents of Western democracy is their absolute intolerance to alternative forms of government and their aggressive attitude towards any manifestation of dissent in the sphere of government. Why try to equate everyone with the same brush, ignoring natural diversity for historical reasons and differences in cultural traditions?

Be kind - and inform in which country you live, we will understand who is close to culture and civilized norms! :) Well, seriously - it's very interesting to understand what you put into these concepts. But let it be on the example of your country, as they say "a living example"! I'm sure there will be many "surprises" if we delve into the study of "culture" ...

I hate to repeat things, and most already know what country I come from - the thing is pretty obvious to anyone who wants to know it. I think that my country is also very far from the standards that would classify it as an appropriate member of the EU, but Brussels bureaucrats considered it a desirable cube in their mosaic because of its geostrategic position and of course cheap labor.

I know that you strongly represent the interests of your country and I have nothing against Ukraine becoming a member of the EU one day, but in less than 10 years since my country become EU member we lost over 400 000 people, paid a lot of money into the EU budget and fell on the bottom of the same EU.

If you are naive to think that the EU will solve Ukraine's problems now or in the future, then you live in that belief - in 100 days of war they hardly did anything concrete - without US military aid, where would Ukraine be today?

Only if the Belarussians rise up and get rid of their dictator, like what Ukrainians did. And then just like Ukraine they'd probably be attacked by Russia too. I'm actually surprised how Latvia and Estonia managed to get into both NATO and EU. Finland also managed to get into EU but it seems in also joining NATO would be what would finally piss of Russia. I guess Ukraine is just too important to allowed into EU/NATO or it's just unlucky with the timing (Russian aggression tend to peak during high oil prices).

The question is simple, but tell me - where is dissent really considered a crime, and for any disagreement with the "only true point of view" - are people detained and given very real terms of imprisonment? And massively, for no reason, on far-fetched pretexts, and even for simply reading the Constitution of the country in which you live? Well, or oppose the war and the killing of civilians?
Where are all state channels (and there are no others) around the clock promoting terrorism and calling for the destruction of neighboring countries that do not want to be friends of this country? Where the army does not serve the people, protecting them according to the constitution, but a bunch of kleptomaniac maniacs, and carry out their criminal orders, killing citizens of other countries, because that bunch of kleptomaniac terrorists do not like a different way of life in another country? Can you name such a country? :)

Or a country where the people, having voted for another presidential candidate, receive a total election fraud, and an old, rotten president. And in demanding that their rights be respected, people receive either a bullet in the stomach or mass detentions and sadistic torture in the police station? Where, if you do not support the "party line" (dissent) - you are a criminal, and you and your relatives will be monitored and threatened, you will most likely be laid off at work, and you will be deprived of the right to comply with the law in relation to you? Can you name such a country? :)
And then - an example of "Western democracy" with the same manifestations? Well, to be honest :)

I think it's possible for Belarus to get the support and become pro-European. But only over time and without Lukashenko. He is a dictator, largely Putin's pawn (although retains a fraction of independence), hijacked the elections despite allegations of major fraud taking place to present him as a winner. EU won't help this guy, especially not after the extensive involvement of Belarus in the war in form of giving Russia a territory from which they can fire missiles on Ukraine, deploy troops and stuff like that.
To those saying that democracy is a Western thing that should not be pushed on other countries like Belarus:
1. I think it's up to the majority of people in Belarus to decide which form of government they prefer. Lukashenko was in power as a legimitate (=supported by the majority) leader, but the last elections demonstrated that maybe it's not the case anymore.
2. We're talking about EU giving 3 billion dollars of financial support to Belarus. If Belarus wants to keep being authoritarian, then they can be, but the EU has no reason to give them support in that case.

Often the question worries - why do people, instead of a short answer in fact, start writing opuses where there is no answer ?!
But everything you wrote next is a clear departure from the question that I asked. Did not notice ? :) The main point of my question refers to your phrase about "culture and civilized norms", and not about the benefit of the EU.
By the way, looking at what is happening in the EU, when the issue "becomes an edge", I already doubt that it makes sense to have an alliance with "old Europe", whose elites have chosen the role of corrupt, corrupt, bedding of the Kremlin, and not strong, independent countries. But it is on their conscience.
Therefore, I repeat the question once again - in what kind of cultural and civilized country do you live? Or will you hide it, due to the fact that it is not so cultural and civilized? :)

Belarus hasn't been a democratic nation for a long time and I doubt that it will ever be one, no matter how much money you may throw into that nation there will be never a fair elections there where the president would be willing to take the money and leave the position.

You can give the president 3 billion dollars directly into his bank account, and he would still prefer to keep his power over money because when you have the power, money means nothing. In a world where you are a dictator ruling over the nation as you wish without fear of losing, money means nothing, EVERYTHING is free to you, you could do whatever you want and not pay a single cent.

... but to answer my question, and to name the countries where the described events regularly occur, did not have the courage!? expected :)

Decided to boast as an "achievement" or an indicator of the best well-being, what is already considered normal for others? And of course - if there is Internet for $ 7 - that's it, life is good!
By the way, I didn’t talk about any protests, I talked about the persecution of any dissent (reread the previous posts), the lack of legality, totalitarianism, the criminality of the authorities ... But you have Internet for $ 7, how stupid I am with such questions against the background of such global advantage! :) Unfortunately, I do not know the slang expression for translation, for your status, which we call "merged" :)


PS. But these figures about cheap taxis and cheap Internet - is that all you are proud of? In Kyiv, an unlimited package that I have at home - 1Gb / sec (Ukraine) + 500 Mb (worldwide) + IPTV (about 200 very high-quality channels) costs 288 UAH, or $ 8 :) Taxi is absolutely affordable. But there is also municipal, convenient transport, and no one has canceled personal transport!
I live in Kiva, the apartment is located in a complex, which is located in the middle of the park, and from the window the park area starts 15 meters away. At 50 meters from the rear exit, there is a seating area + barbecue area. Windows in all rooms, except one, and a balcony overlook the forest. In the park area of ​​the lake, ducks, hedgehogs, squirrels, even a beaver lives :) Birds sing beautifully from early morning. Convenient transport interchange is not far at all, the metro is a 10-minute walk, many types of municipal and commercial transport, its own parking on the territory of the complex. But I'm not proud of it, I think it's normal and natural, and I don't think it's something outstanding :)

And that's indeed another thing I don't like about EU. They're incompetent because they want to please everyone for their moral high ground agenda. China doesn't have that "problem": they do what's best for China.

Offhand, the first thing that comes to mind is, of course, Ukraine. Zelensky banned any opposition and got rid of all politically significant competitors. And the army of Ukraine does not protect its people, but uses them as human shields, acting like terrorists.

But of course you meant something else, for example Lukashenko or Putin? ;D

I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories and I try to stay close to reality in my life (because life is good and illusions tend to disappoint). The wording of your questions seems strange and politically biased to me, which is at least inappropriate in the section on the economy.

The attempt of the opposition in Belarus in the last elections was audacious and almost successful, but it failed. Personally, I consider Lukashenko to be quite a cool European dictator who, while maintaining the originality and self-identity of his people, is pursuing a quite reasonable pro-Russian policy. Recently, several shops with Belarusian products have appeared in my city at once and they sell all kinds of delicious food at reasonable prices - cheeses, apple cider, marmalade, marshmallows, etc. I like Belarus, maybe some civil liberties are missing there, but from the Russian side it looks quite harmonious.

Politically biased?
Let's tell an educational program :)
So, what is this "political engagement"? This is how it is interpreted in Russian-language sources: POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT - an expression used to emphasize the political coloring of someone's position or sympathies. For example, evaluating a speech as politically engaged means that the speaker pursued a certain political line, or expressed his sympathy for certain ideas, or generally fulfilled someone's social order, etc.

And now tell me - where is the political bias in my question? Did I express any sympathy? emphasized the poly-secret coloration? Not ! I just cited a few facts that, with a non-zero probability, can be in many countries with different political structures. But vyf perfectly understood in which country these events are in full set and constantly occur :) In general, there is no need for a better answer, thank you! :)

And about normal, high-quality products - what about Russia, which has "the largest resources in the world", a problem with high-quality products? Or do they not bring normal products to your region?  ;D

Anyone who reads your messages will easily notice that you are strongly politically biased in favor of Ukraine. So much so that there is a possibility that you are an employee of the center of information and psychological operations. I'm not blaming you for this, just stating a fact.

Since 2014, Russia has spent a lot of effort to strengthen its food security and has achieved notable results in this matter. But they never learned how to make good cheese, cheese from Belarus is tastier.

I recently visited Belarus.  

It is difficult for me to judge the functioning of the repressive apparatus of this country (fortunately, I have not come across this).  

But the general impression of the country is positive.  Very clean, people don't litter.  

There are well-dressed passers-by on the streets, all in brand new sneakers and stylish youth clothes.  The shops have a lot of delicious food and liquor.  Lots of young parents with kids.  The people are friendly and easy to get in touch with.  There are a lot of sportsmen (runners, cyclists, football players) in the parks.  

The country itself is very similar to Poland.  I find it difficult to say whether Belarus will be better or worse if it joins the European Union.

 I stand to be corrected, but in my opinion, the EU is synonymous with a a snake. Imagine presenting them with a package they can't refuse. It's quite a welcome development that they have decided to seek to be democratic and are getting support from the EU, but is this support out of benevolence? I don't think so.
  I cannot imagine a country where citizens are not free to exercise their voting rights as if you do, you will be detained. I mean, WTF? I feel Lukashenko needs to hand over the baton. This will help them have the freedom to grow their economy and not worry about paying a certain percentage to the Soviet.

Engagement, I repeat for you individually, is an attempt to wishful thinking, or to attribute exclusively positive characteristics to the side of sympathy.
I'm just stating the facts of terrorist aggression against my country. Massacre of civilians. Looting by both terrorist soldiers and the state. Theft, sadism, inhumanity ... Where is the bias? Can you, without taking it out of context, give my answers where I one-sidedly elevate Ukraine? No, not facts, but precisely one-sidedly, without arguments and facts, I give preference to Ukraine? I am writing about the fact that Russia is a terrorist, and not that Ukraine is the best. Unlike you, who draws absolutely not a real, fantastic picture about Russia :)
As I understand it, instead of answers, you only have accusations of some far-fetched reasons? Not surprised at all! :)




I am absolutely honest, once again I say that I love your humor :) Food safety is palm oil, the lowest quality instead of dairy products, this is feed grain instead of normal, for making bread, this is an increase in prices for an ersatz product that is passed off as products. Russia succeeded in protecting the food sector, like almost everything it does :)

The support program for Belarus was adopted by the EU countries after they saw that Lukashenka could gradually move away from Putin's influence and is making attempts to negotiate with the West. However, this was before the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, when, including from the territory of Belarus, Ukraine was attacked by Russian troops, and the shelling of Ukraine is still continuing from the territory of Belarus. Therefore, Belarus is recognized as the same aggressor as Russia, and similar international sanctions are taken against it. The attitude towards Belarus will largely depend on whether Ukraine will be attacked by these armed forces. The people of Belarus, including its military, do not want to fight with Ukraine, and it is quite possible that if a decision is made to invade, a significant part of Belarusians will either immediately lay down their arms or go over to the side of Ukraine. Already, a significant number of Belarusians are fighting on the side of Ukraine, who express plans after the war in Ukraine to go against the Lakashenko regime.
Lukashenka understands this and tries in every possible way to evade the invasion of Ukraine, which Putin imposes on him. Therefore, after Lukashenka is removed from power, democratic reforms can begin there with the support of European countries, unless, of course, Belarus is directly or covertly occupied by Russians.

Obviously, now that EU is clear that Belarus is going to side with Russia no matter what happens, EU will definitely not aid Belarus in any manner, no matter if the world comes to peace tomorrow. If EU does try to give them this package Russia will give them a bigger package but make sure that EU doesn't offers them anything because Belarus is undoubtedly the most important strategic partner of Russia. So I feel this relationship is definitely broken forever.

I think what we're seeing in the world right now won't last long. After a certain amount of time, the situation will change and the laws of the economy will put everything in its place. In the world the laws of the market and free competition are constantly working and trade relations between countries will be strengthened. I am sure that Belarus will take its rightful place in the world market and it will not face any obstacles to trade.