Bitcoin Forum

The world  economy is in recession

Stocks low
https://i.ibb.co/sJ3K2y7/Screenshot-from-2022-06-10-16-37-38.png

Bonds high
https://i.ibb.co/ThTF9VT/Screenshot-from-2022-06-10-16-37-16.png


Textbook recession ,from the manual ...

At least for the United States, we are not in a true recession yet..

"What is a Recession?
A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators such as a rise in unemployment. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions, says the two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP are not how it is defined anymore. The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

"Two different things
Inflation and recession describe the momentum of an economy. Inflation makes the economy barrel forward at full speed, sometimes uncontrollably, leading to price surges and a higher cost of living for the average consumer. A recession would be the opposite, a much slower economy marked by a decline in economic activity and potentially higher unemployment.

Simply put, inflation hits household finances. A prolonged period of inflation means that prices will continue to increase and the same amount of money will buy you less and less over time. Wages tend to rise naturally during inflation to compensate for this, since inflation is a byproduct of a surge in demand, meaning economic growth, but people with fixed incomes like pensioners have no such luck in that case. If inflation gets out of control, everyone feels poorer". https://fortune.com/2022/06/08/what-is-inflation-recession-consumer-expectations-gas-prices/

Recession means less money to spend ...no more liquidity  and high prices...the rest is just textbook

USA is lucky with big cities like NY ,in NY only if you don't want to make money you don't make it ... high density population less chances you will feel recession.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s35HzPA8RRI

Definitely recession is on the verge throughout world if not yet here. The worlds GDP is falling badly and currently stands at -3.0 which is in negation already. This is definitely not good news whether by book or by logic, we are not doing great as humans since few years. The probable cause is pandemic when worlds literally stopped for one year straight and foreign exchanges stopped everywhere.

Take a look at the below graph which gives clear negative bar for the GDP.

Sometimes the stars converge in such a way that inflation is combined with a recession, this is called stagflation (stagnation + inflation). This is the scariest beast of all - when the economy slows down and prices rise at the same time.

Even if it's in the recession I do think it's justified since we are in the middle of the war, pandemic and at the same government is not handling things well, people are also leaving their jobs the government is also trying to hold the prices together by holding off these jobs.

Inflation is getting worse as well but I don't think we can clearly demarcate inflation and recession as well! Because in the same country we might be seeing both of them happening at various locations and also it might also be artificially done by the government.

Inflation is price surges, seen in petrol, gas etc. And recession is basically unemployment and slow economy that's why we cannot expect one to work since they are opposites, don't think we can have clear borders and individual situation would be different as well.

An example of a recession that we can still see these days. When the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out, we saw the impact of the overall micro and macro recession in certain areas that fall into the category of allies. Be it from the Russian side or worse is the extent of the recession felt by the Ukrainian alliance. The reason is the creation of a recession due to a spike in food prices that jumped dramatically when state finances slumped after being hit by a prolonged pandemic. This tactic can be a reference for Russia that other countries will first take care of improving their respective countries' finances before contributing humanitarian aid.

If we look at the impact, without us realizing it, the economic recession has undermined the most important production sectors such as raw materials which are basic daily needs.

Economically recession is defined as a period of degrowth in the economy where the available money in hands of people is too high but yet the overall GDP is falling because of lower consumption. Dip or crash is something when stock market is lower, but this type of situation doesn't necessarily signify a recession. We have seen a lot of stock market dips yet no major recessions. Recessions generally kick in when some big firm with tons of employees goes bankrupt and kick starts the process of low income in hands of individuals.

You could argue that most of the world never recovered from the great depression, and therefore we're still in a recession. However, that might be a bit too far fetched for a few people, so instead I'd point out that "yet" is rather telling. Much of the world will be a recession, and at this point it's unavoidable. It's not whether we will be in one, it's when, and for how long will we be feeling the effects.

I've been predicting a recession that was beyond any previous recessions we've experienced, due to recent unprecedented events. The only comparable one will be the great depression.

You probably right. There are prosperous countries, and there are not very prosperous ones. Based on who is lucky enough to be and where, the recession will be perceived differently. Some countries are still in a state of permanent depression and recession, therefore, the deterioration of the state will not stand out so much from the standard situation. It's like if you heat hot water another 1-2 degrees higher. From this, according to sensations, the water will not become very hot.

Oh yeah. The duration of the consequences is highly unpredictable and can last for decades. The Great Depression is an example. How many are ready mentally and financially for such a long time?

There is a version that the world has not moved away from the economic events of 2008 so far, but how much time has passed. So, everything can be "painted not at all in iridescent colors."

Would you mind linking to your post where you talked about this in more detail? I ask because I know from other sources that the current world is on the verge of a major economic upheaval and I would like to compare with your forecasts. It's one thing when one person says it, and quite another thing when several sources say the same thing.

Judging by the ridiculous inflation going on it is inevitable that we will end up in a recession. It's also a fact that all recent recessions have taken place after record oil prices, just like we are seeing right now. Economic outcomes are often revised up and down in later quarters so it might be misleading to only rely on current estimates. Covid really threw everything out of whack and caused a mini cycle of its own. Let's hope this is a short and sharp recession, not one that is longer drawn out.

FED is destroying the demand of everything which this inflation is pretty much making the prices go high and people are not buying anything even when they have the money.
everything in stocks are down. we're doomed.

Bitcoin is 29K still so its holding on. hoping BTC will decouple soon.

We're in a period with stagflation. Most currencies are inflating, and the global economy is slowing down. China and the U.S. are having deep economic troubles, the war in Ukraine are effecting the prices of energy and food, and that is on top of a shaky recovery from COVID lockdowns.

Not technically in a recession, but most economists believe one is coming. By the way, all this is in context with today's USD inflation report of 8.6%, a 40 year high. Not great for business.

Let's be honest, the world economy is in recession as the OP stated in the topic of this thread because there's a general economic declined activities in the world ^{(and that includes the US)}
Some people may not easily understand this because of the truth hiding away from them or they don't want to accept the fact about what's happening but when there's a decline in the economy, production, and employment that's a sign of recession though it may be triggered by pandemics or financial crises.

Bonds are created to get more money from the public to encourage them spend money and at least give them assurance for something in return, this is actually to fight inflation to lessen the circulation of money. Stocks are down because many are cashing out because of this fear of recession. Actually its not easy to balance everything, and yes recession might happen but then again, we will survive on this and rise again so better not to panic and decide on where to put your money.

Some countries are still doing going though but many are already affected in many ways.
Recession in some country is inevitable especially in third world country, some already suffering with the spike on the prices of basic commodities. This is the result of printing more money in the past two years because of the pandemic, but don’t worry the economy will recover again but it will always take time. Let’s just do what is right and have a good investment as well, this way you can protect your money from the inflation.

What you are trying to describe here is the behavior of the market in the event of a recession, not a description of a recession or a tool to predict a recession. Recession is defined by economists as a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters, so we will not know anything unless we see the data of the current quarter, which if it is low and consistent with the forecasts of decline in the previous quarter then We can say that we are in a recession.

As for the way you mention, we cannot precisely define a recession.>

We truly are going there.

While reading and watching news in different countries, all of them are highlighting the inflation and it's not just the typical inflation that each country gets. Some of them are in great inflation and it's already hard go to with the recovery.

At least we know that we're going or we're already in a recession, as an individual, we have the advantage of doing things on our own just to survive this.

Things are not looking great, so independently of what definition we may use and whether someone thinks we are already in a recession or not the truth is that even more difficult times are coming, which makes me wonder how long can the economy resist? We suffered through the pandemic, then when it seemed as if we could let it behind us then the war at Ukraine erupted, sanctions against Russia took place which increased the price of fuel and food all over the world and things are about to get even worse, if yet another negative event were to happen things could spiral out of control, and that is not a scenario anyone wants to go through.

Assuming I agreed there's no recession in the US but let me ask you a question.
Do you think the institution investor choose BTC because they like it after every negative things they said about it? No, they choose it because they feel the present of recession and BTC is the only decentralized cryptocurrency that proof to be an answer to their problem.

Neverthless, Kim Dotcom who's know as digital entrepreneur also make an interesting tweeted (https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1533524778610348032) about world recession

Nope because the high volatility of bitcoin will make them think that they are in the wrong place to put their investment with and for sure they get dismay when seeing the historical statistics of bitcoin so maybe they will choose more reliable assets like gold over anything else because this one can protect their money out of inflation and the price could even rise over the years by storing it. But for sure many institutional investors now are considering bitcoin as part of their investment because the potential for growth is so huge on it in future.

In the US we might be in a recession, we won’t know until the GDP numbers are released. However the way I think it works is that if there is a negative growth, that means the recession started on the beginning of that period and not the end.

The way things are right now most likely it will be negative and recession will be confirmed. The rates are not raised fast enough and unemployment is just way too low. Low unemployment means lower productivity and higher wages and higher inflation.

Many countries including the United States might be in the lane of recession unaware to them. This is because recession is measured quarterly with respect to GDP, unlike inflation that has immediate effect on the economy.

Though inflation and recession differ, but they complement each other. Consecutive inflation gives rise to recession.
So, as things are unstable and inflating, it is an indication that every country is in the lane of recession

Russia has proven that they where somewhat the powerhouse of European economy and this current recession will extend to America if the war doesn't end soon.... This invariably is affecting the world...

I strongly believe that the advance states of the world are very good in covering every loopholes that will signal an already existing recession in their respective states. This is quite so due to a strong working system of market price regulations of goods and services when compared to many third world nation's that lack this ingenuity.

Many third world countries seem to look much hittwd by recession due to lack of workable operational systems and institutions. With a porous economy of recession will surface wih ease with a bit on the citizens as prices of goods and services skyrocketing on daily basis especially with weak
a institution responsible for price regulation and inspection, capitalists can make the situation look more miserable in their drive for profit after profit.

In conclusion, recession is a current problem for every state of the world but it seems differently cause of the strategies applied by the different state in tackling it and so the effect on each state differs.

If you say global meltdown I will agree with you but saying the world is in a recession is an overstatement and that can not be proven, there is a big difference between recession and inflation or economic meltdown down so get that straight.