Bitcoin Forum

Am not sure but from the tone of this post i think it was made during times like this. i stumble across this very inspiring piece of btc post from the telegram channel i follow so i thought to share it here to inspire some of us who are thinking the worst because of the blood bath. More than 10 years since this post was made here in this forum, i hope the @op bought back his btc otherwise........ won't comment any further :-X
Link from the source is either broken or removed, couldn't dig it from here.

https://i.imgur.com/EwnF1jU.jpg

Do share your beautiful thoughts.  :)

I've always said that there is no problem with selling bitcoin, I'd go as far as saying there is even no problem with panic selling bitcoin either. The problem is not buying back soon after. Imagine if this person who panic sold below $20 had bought back when the panic sell ended and before the price started shooting back up again.

It's the same scenario repeating itself every time we have a drop. A large number of weak hands panic sell but they don't buy back, only a smaller percentage of people are buying these days. People who would be called whales a couple of years later.

There is also a post like this in the german local forum, wehre somebody is very disappointed that BTC is again at 10 € and is wondering if it will ever go up again.

One important difference between 2011 and 2022 is that today people sell BTC for stablecoins, and before they sold them for $, so although fiat is not something to trust, stablecoins are another higher level of risk since they are backed with the same fiat, and in addition have the added risk of being frozen no matter where they are stored.

I can understand people selling BTC for a variety of reasons, especially if they have no choice because they need that money for daily needs - but it’s hard for me to understand that people don’t learn from the past and repeat the same mistakes. I have already written several times that from the perspective of profit, which is why most people are interested in Bitcoin, the most important thing is to determine the point of entry and exit.

So far, it has proven to be the entry point in situations like this when the market has suffered a severe blow, or for those who want to profit in the short term at the time of halving. ATH will most likely follow in 6-8 months after that and the smart ones will know how to take advantage of this by selling little by little on the way up.

Of course, this is not financial advice, but only what can be seen if you look at the brief history of Bitcoin.

You are right.

Both fiat and stable coin are inflationary but with fiat, at least we have governments and central bank back behind. If governments are strong, we can believe in that fiat but of course with inflation, purchasing power will decrease.

With stablecoins, lot of things we don't know and any company should have less power than government and central bank so there is more risk. A higher risk is with algorithm stablecoin with Terra UST & LUNA is a good example. TRX and USDD is a latest one.

That's what everyone is feeling when the market is crashing but got no plans on how they're going to overcome this crash. It's true that buying back is important and even if you've lost already but you still want to remain in the game, that's how it should go.

I agree, no problem in selling if you need the cash but make sure that you have a game plan on how you're going to buy back whether at the same price or not, lower or higher as long as you have a long term plan to stay.

That's really funny! $20 worth of bitcoins in 2011 could have made the holder a millionaire today. But pessimism kicked in and the opportunity is lost. I remember I have done the same thing with ETH because I actually had a chance to buy ETH at $3. But I was skeptical about its future and didn't buy. I could have become a millionaire by now based on the investable surplus I had back in that time. Bow trying to correct that mistake by buying at every dip for longer time, probably for my retirement. 

I saw that image on Twitter yesterday but I'm not sure if your source was from Twitter: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1537126860911480832

I have queried the search button to see the profile on bitcointalk but it wasn't found, was the profile deleted?


What happened to all those users, all are inactive, they look just like regular users who created accounts back then and never visit again.

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Bitcoin has been in existence since 2009, any child born from that year to now will be a teen by now, those who are panicking here and there because of small FUD will come back again when they grow old and will bite their tongue for running because of inflation that has been in existence before the world war.

This is just one sixe of the coin (pun intended)
 BTC was never conceptualised to be what is is today, at least what investors are trying to make of it. It's not all about making a profit, it never was. The bigger picture is BTC pushing the boundaries of what is money and curency without it being attached to standard money controling organisations. And how all of that could benefit our future.

True...  8) Bitcoin level of uncertainty could benefit our future. Who knows? Bitcoin could hit $80,000 after this mayhem is over.

Who can predict the future that the bitcoin price of $20 in 2011 will be $69K in 2021? That's not funny in my opinion, but they have concerns that prices will drop further so buying back post dumps is hard for them to do. Only those lucky enough with good finances who dare to buy in bulk and keep it in the long term, they are the winners.

Feeling pessimistic in a highly volatile market seems reasonable while bitcoin is a freely traded asset. This allows the price to rise uncontrollably and fall in the same way as well. But at that time bitcoin didn't seem to be widely known so people were still hesitant to buy and hold it long term even though $20 today looks very cheap for bitcoin. Maybe $20K today will also be considered very cheap if in 10 years the price of bitcoin is trading at $1M.

In the face of this very deep DIP, those who are really serious with Bitcoin should always look for the long-term. Admittedly, that can't be an easy thing to do for holders who just like me can be small and may not be financially stable. As for the big holders and the whales, I think they can do whatever they want and many may continue on holding on waiting for the time when the tide can be reversed...and it will really have its own time again as this is always a question of WHEN and not of IF. Good to see and read an inspiring post like above reminding us of the colorful history of Bitcoin and why holding on is the right thing to do.

Early bitcoin prospective was difficult. It requires grit to invest into something new. We cannot blame those early investors that sold their bitcoins because of the uncertainty. Those that continued to hold longer in years were rewarded handsomely.

I am a believer in bitcoin but I am also aware on rumors about the likelihood of quantum computers. Is bitcoin really vulnerable to quantum computers? How long before quantum computers exist?   

If we look at what OP have said, posts like this tends to come up in times like this (bearish market) and this one dates back as far as 10years ago and somehow, it tends to make meaning in our present time. This is in agreement with what Lucius have stated as, it goes into history and people are expected to learn from these events of history. I dontvsee reasons why people might prefer fiat to bitcoin if you ask me. Yeah, some might look at it as a commodity to dispenser and something that could just go off at some point but, the history of today has made us understand that, that's hardly the case with bitcoin.

Fiat might save value but, it becomes of no use, swapping your bitcoin for fiat whne the market is at its low already. Doing that at the beginning of the bear market might be a wise choice with the intention of buying from the dip but, not whe the market has formed this dip already.

Only those people are selling who invested in bitcoin as a gamble, or who were completely dependent on bitcoin for their income or who are not looking in  real long term prospective. Yes whales are actually routing the funds towards their sponsored stable coins. But these stable coins again will become indirectly controlled by the fiat owners behind. However in future only whales will benefit and we all will be mere users of stable coins

I wouldn't assume that the crash was largely caused by panicking newbies. I'd say it was more likely done by whales and pro traders who saw the stock market crash and decided to pull their money out of Bitcoin too, because it was already in bear market and stock market downsides have correlated with Bitcoin downsides in the past.

By pulling their money back and letting the price crash even further means they will buy back at a much cheaper rate at the bottom! It really doesn't make sense why they will pull out their funds just because of the stock market crash, btc is supposed to be the go-to asset when others like stock are crumbling.
Although I kind of see understand clearly now, if not whales pulling out their money to crash the price further down newbie panic sell is not enough to bring the price down this much.

Yeah.. It is the human nature to be scared sometimes, and moreover when it comes to life savings, most people are extremely off thinking when they are placed in such pressure, because the fall in the price of BTC above 15% to 20% is enough to put people into panic (especially people buying for the very first time) and has urgent needs for money. So selling a coin because it falls is not a bad idea, but not buying again when you have the chance is the problem

I could understand why the OP of that post might feel that way, think about it, even now Bitcoin could still be considered a new thing talk less of 2011. However, It is a surprise that even up till now with the history of Bitcoins evolution some investors still think during a bear market season like this Bitcoin might not be able to recover and all you hear is fear.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.msg344344#msg344344


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=26176
Last Active:    November 19, 2011, 03:49:30 AM

I believe why we have so much fear and the kind of panic we see in the market is because many investors are actually investing monies that might be needed in the immediate future for this hence the need to quickly sell off once there is a bit of downward price movement and the uncertainty of how long it might take to recover.

It's the same every year,there are people who lose the spirit and there are people who still maintained confidence in the time of bear market,like the thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998.0).
For people who already dabbling with bitcoin for years,they will not easily influenced by FUD and just wait for the right time.

I could still understand those beginners who are inexperienced and do not understand that such things do not work, but I can not understand that such projects are launched by people who have been dealing with cryptocurrencies for years. Stablecoins of course offer relatively fast and cheap transactions, but the risks for me personally far outweigh the benefits because it is a 100% centralized private system that always claims that one of their coins is backed by $1, but we know that is not always the case. People today can be sold all kinds of fairy tales, and some have decided to use it to the maximum.

I really dislike it when people comeback during hype period, like when they see 20-30% increases daily, once or twice per week, for over a month. Bitcoin was 3.5k or so during march of 2020, and it was 64k just in April of 2021, that's about a year, look at the insane increase it had.

And yet, people are seeing absolutely no upside going forward? Let them be, anyone who buys from the current prices will be getting insanely rich in the near future and it will be a great deal, I do not understand how people can't see an upside, but I guarantee you 100% that all of them will comeback when the prices start to recover and we get into another bull run.

I agree with you hare. I still see some posts here where people are saying not to buy now that the price of Bitcoin might continue to fall, so wait until it starts to recover. Well, this could be true but I don't see any reason why anyone shouldn't take advantage of the current price even if not all in at once, and how do you even know that, that recovery is actually a confirmed Bull season? I think the problem is some investors don't believe in what they are investing in, they hear Bitcoin is making people money so they invest without the knowledge and the patience of the result.

One more proof, why we need to HODL.

Weak hands always is in this situation they enter when its high and exit at the low but blame the Bitcoin for all those things these are kore common in stocks but not much people talking about it but whenever it comes to cryptocurrency all those economic experts advice us to stay away because its risky.

I think bitcoin was never the hype, it increased naturally. And I'm sure that people who are consistent with bitcoin from the last 5 years will not give up their trust regardless of what period they bought it.

The hype period is precisely the moment when newbies get excited about putting all their money into bullshit coins where they are reluctant to look at the history of the market and forget about bitcoin which is the biggest influence of the coins as a whole. So that at times like today, beginners get more of a downside effect and start giving up because of wrong choices.

Reason why i decided to share to lift the spirit of those who are thinking the price is lower than where they bought and feel like they have lost money, as long as you don't sell your coins to the whale no lose has occurred.
People need to see this and understand where btc may likely be in few years to come, buying now and holding for long term is always the best decision and rewarding. We shouldn't be influenced by fear.
Impatience people will be the loser, it doesn't make sense for people to fomo in at ath and panic sell at the bottom and then blame the market while they are the ones that lack the patience for market recovery.

Some people are just too pessimistic towards the bear market and that's why they fail to take advantage of the cheap price, they spend time being negative towards the price and spread fud about btc going to zero or will never go back to previous ath. History has proven time and time again btc will always surpass previous ath and set a new record.

We have a lot of sell low and buy high investors in the crypto space, it is in their nature unfortunately.

Fear will always be one of the most important emotions in the market. It allows people to not see the reality of crypto and focus on the possibility of everything going badly. Anxiety is what we feel when something is not happening right now, but a potential to happen in the future and fearing of a thing that hasn't happened yet.

Basically it's the fear of murphy's law, and saying that if bitcoin going down to 1k is the worst possible thing, and 100k is the best thing, then it will go to 1k because good things never happen and it's always bad. Having that type of pessimistic approach to the future of the market makes people do things that will cause them to lose money.

Don't be too sure about that  :) someone just told me that it is a mistake Bitcoiners make https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403037.msg60387089#msg60387089
It is obvious that some pretending Investors don't really understand what that means and once there is a dip and further dips in the market they end up catching all those losses you just mentioned, "sell low and buy high" cos they will come back once the market is in an uptrend again.

Isn't that what TA is all about? It uses history to predict future moves of an asset.

It's not even about bitcoin but all other markets. Why do you think investors know if they should buy or sell something. Usually they sell if there's a repeating pattern of bad performance which they call weakness and they buy when the asset shows strength breaking resistance levels. With bitcoin there's halving that increases its value and the fact that the number of bitcoins is limited to 21 million.

Also, I wouldn't call DCA "catching losses". It's just meant for people with at least 3 years of holding in mind. Some of us are not traders, we don't watch charts or hold coins on exchanges so that we can sell them when the price goes down. We buy in an uptrend which you could call "catching wins" and in a downtrend.

We are joking with a friend of mine that he bought the most expensive SSD in the world. It was in 2016 and his old drive gave up and we wanted to play some online shooter, or something and he spend somewhere around 0.5BTC for one. He had some BTC left and in 2021 he bought himself a new motorcycle that costed less than that SSD a few years back.

At times like this I wonder what I'd do if I were ever to see bitcoin at the level at which I bought for the first time. It would be a scary thing for sure, so I understand all those people who sell when the price hits their level. Imagine buying at 20k, waiting almost 2 years and seeing it again at 19k. Would you buy more or sell and exit the market?

That's true, even up till after 2017 before stablecoins became a thing. The pre-stablecoin era, it was either one sold and bought a shitcoin if one wasn't exchanging Bitcoin directly to fiat through P2P. It's a whole lot better now. People can easily tether Bitcoin if they feel it's going to dip and they aren't shorting it on margin trading. Just sell off and set the capital aside in wait for a dip to buy back. Those who will regret this panic move now are those who after selling off refuse to buy back. Bitcoin will definitely rise from this crash. I've seen this happen many times. It's nothing new.

Basically you don't need to have a lot of bitcoins to move the market because the bitcoin market is still small. This means whoever sells low will influence the market regardless of whether they are newbies or whales. It is true that beginners are those who are more likely to panic due to lack of experience, but they are the ones who contribute to the market in whatever amount they have.

The actual market is not completely dominated by whales, so traders may follow their moves and if it does then panic will make the red candle pop again. Look how hot the market is right now where the percentage decline has reached more than 72%. Bitcoin may still drop lower, so this is a special opportunity for those who know how the market works.

There are a lot of panic sellers now and it seems majority are selling below their buying price driving the price even lower. This is a difficult situation for holders for sure because it takes a great deal of effort to be calm in this period. However, those who have long term goal in mind won't worry so much about this dip, only short term investors can't stand it.

To me, 2 years is not such a long time to wait, compare to early btc investors who have been holding btc since 10, 8, 6.... years back and still holding strong. The problem is lack of patience.

This is the period when the popular saying "i believe btc will raise to surpass previous ath" is put to test. I mean since we all know this and history has also shown it to us anytime btc dip what happened next then why people panic so much like btc end has come!

It may be better from the user experience, but if we consider the risk that comes with stablecoins, then this way of trading is not something we should look at in a positive light. People have confidence in something just because it suits them, but they don't understand what the risk is because it's an indisputable fact that Most Stablecoins Can Be Frozen, Even in Your Own Wallets (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5204055.0).

People who say they don't believe in fiat and replace it with Bitcoin and then sell it for something that is actually a privatized fiat that can be frozen at any time, obviously don't understand what the risk is.

One philosopher opined that nothing was so certain that it couldn't be doubted. I concur with that. To that effect I add that there's no perfect system anywhere in the world. Even life itself bears risk. I mean the mere act of going to bed and waking up is a risk on its own. There are some healthy folks who've passed on in their sleep. In the real sense of it, nothing we do is without risk. Crypto isn't without risk. Bitcoin may bear a safer risk than other cryptos but that isn't saying there aren't any risk associated with it. While we peruse the risk involved with stablecoins, we should also remember that there's no crypto without a risk. I rather fancy my chances with a stablecoin when I sell off than plough it into another altcoin.

That hit me hard. It's the same people like us who "bought back" at right times multiple times and are now the whales.
I never sold my bitcoins. I only sold some of them when I had the necessity but otherwise I kept HODLing on to the rest.
If only I had sold and bought back then I could have accumulated more coins. But then I am happy to not lose those coins by not buying back.
I still have a chance to buy more right now while it's low and keep accumulating. May be I may sell later at peak and buy more later again.

Beware that you have to find a good balance between selling, buying, buying back and HODLing. After all using exchanges is always risky, trading is an extra risk on top of it. I personally dedicate a small portion of my bitcoins to trading which is why when Bittrex scammed me and stole my coins I wasn't devastated, that was simply because I was trading with a small amount that I could afford to lose.

If you get over that, trading could give you some good profit. For example I sold a small amount above $30k and bought back above $20k and I'm happy with the profit I earned regardless of what the price currently is.

I do have patience and I can wait for sure, but the idea that we will have to wait years, when it was such a close period to buy and hold and profit, right now it feels like we are years away from that does upset me a bit. In the end we are going to profit for sure, and that is why I am feeling fine, but that doesn't change the fact that I have been involved with crypto in much better periods as well and obviously I love those periods a lot more.

This is why I prefer that we would be in a bull run a lot sooner, keep going down doesn't mean I will make a loss, but it means that I would be sad and I would rather see it 100k+ obviously, that is a lot better.

So that basically means you have a little portion of your portfolio on an exchange for active trading while the rest is in a wallet.
So a major portion of your portfolio is still untouched which again means your portfolio must be down by 70% too.
Does that make you feel stressed or haven't you wished that you could have sold all of it above $60k and bought back around $30k.

Even though I do understand what you are getting at, Investors and traders alike have their different reasons for how they keep their cryptocurrency assets, whether in the CEX or in personal wallets. That said, the same way you think of it, people could have sold at $60k and bought back around $30k, but we have noticed that the market dropped way below that to around $17k+ actually, and if you have bought around $30k and still seeing the market continue to drop wouldn't you have panic sold again? Thinking you could have sold around $60k, most people didn't believe that the market was going to go full Bear mode from there, in fact, people were still saying it would reverse to $100k but that didn't happen.


 

In fact, now the entire market is food for thought. Do not think that bitcoin is the only place you should pay attention to. This is rather the tip of the iceberg.

You are actually right because I could have done the same thing yet I didn't do it because even I didn't expect the market to go full bear mode.
In fact, now I remember making a prediction when the market dipped below $40k and recovered to $47k that the market will keep rising from here.
But eventually it dumped harder and here we are now. Expect the unexpected because that's what crypto is.

it's very normal, your predictions are not completely wrong, it's just that right now the market is being manipulated by those who have a lot of money. Especially with several FUDs that have been distributed, making the market situation even more chaotic.

No one expects the Market to be in full bear mode, except for those who are ready with the rest of their money. Crypto is unpredictable, anything can happen in crypto overnight. We must be smarter to make strategies and make good money management. After a bear market there will be a bull market. Don't think too much about it, just go with the flow.

Different seasons will always approach the market and we must have the courage to deal with them. We can predict yet we can't control the possible things that could happen so we must always be ready for it. Cryptocurrency is volatile and the prices seem like a roller coaster ride and if we aren't emotionally prepared for the possible changes, we could lose a lot.

a volatile market like a roller coaster is very real, when the market goes into bearish mode as it is today, many people will panic why the price keeps dropping. but now is a good opportunity to increase their assets.
Psychology will indeed affect us if we are not ready, therefore good management is needed so that psychology is not disturbed. Panic too much will only do harm.