Bitcoin Forum

Hey,

I have previously called how $BTC will be at 200 MA in Feb 2022, I guess I was ahead of time in finding how comparable 2018 market was to 2022.
Now once we are here at $21k, I think Bitcoin bottom is in.

How I can say that?
1. Monthly RSI
2. Stochastic RSI
3. Hash Ribbon
4. Weekly EMAs and MAs
5. MVRV-Z Score
6. BEAM Indicator

Let's begin :)

1. Monthly RSI -
RSI is at 40, previously whenever this happened, bottom was in.
https://i.imgur.com/g6HproO.png


2. Stochastic RSI -
Whenever Stochastic RSI below 5, bottom was in.
https://i.imgur.com/MUWzQxr.png

3. Hash Ribbon -
Whenever Hash Ribbon Indicator shown Capitulation Signal, Bottom was in,
https://i.imgur.com/ieugOsY.png

4. Weekly EMAs and MAs -
25 EMA crossed 100 MA, bottom was in. This week, the same happened.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cYaQHTuP.png

5. MVRV-Z Score -
Whenever MVRV-Z is in green zone, bottom was in. The chart below is in 2 days delay so has not counted $20k BTC price.
https://i.imgur.com/TIu4OMn.png

6. BEAM Indicator -
BEAM stands for "Bitcoin Economics Adaptive Multiple". BEAM divides the price of bitcoin at any given moment to a moving average of past prices.
Green Zone In, means bottom is in.
https://i.imgur.com/23qIWdT.png

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I love sharing information and my analysis with everyone, rest is upto you how you want to make use of this information.
Good luck and I hope you will make it out if you haven't already this bull run anon. :)

You may be right for the buttom ending or closing of it all for hodlers to have another fresh air and opening of bullish thread. But it may not come to end just on a spot. The RSI and stochastic oscillator are basically indicators that show overbought areas and oversold but not reversal. Using reversal indicators are more accurate for a time frame watch especially like longer time frame , daily , weekly or monthly. Therefore to wait for the monthly time and using support and resistance calculation is more important in this bear time. Sometimes market can be overbought or oversold but it keeps eating down prices and stop loss like it is has been happening around $32/30k price area down up to now at $21k.

25 EMA crossed 100 MA only 3-4 times on Weekly and you are looking at just RSI and Stochastic? You gotta be the stupid one. :)
Have fun.

Monthly RSI seem too far to hit but the weekly RSI have been breached. I think this is enough to make price bounce again. Price will look very terrible if monthly RSI will bottomed below 30.

Seeing there are a number of indicators confirming we hit bottom, dyou thinm its safe to buy large sum.

Last three dips to $20k have higher lows.
Triple rejection looks like the bottom is in...

Everyone has their own different strategies. What I did is I bought 50% at 200 MA ($22k) and will be buying 25% in a day or so.
Rest 25%, I will DCA until August/Sept.

Not sure if I agree that this is the bottom (because the world is obviously in uncharted territory, though I don't really do TA so you're more qualified); but one thing's for sure — for those that are waiting for lower prices, this spot is definitely a great spot to start DCA-ing.

I think it's still going lower due to broad market conditions. All markets are tanking, and the crash and crisis of UST and now Celcius mean crypto is no longer perceived as a safe hedge against inflation.

I'm thinking stock-to-flow and 2-year bear cycle, while governments keep fighting inflation. Bull markets make you money, but bear markets make you rich. Build up durig a low sideways bear trend if it's business as usual, and wait for the next halving to awaken the beast.

Thank you, I learned a lot from your posts and they helped me shorting bitcoin (sell some bitcoins at $30,000 and buy again at 20.9)

What is the most accurate indicator from the indicators above to detect Bottom?
By saying Bitcoin Bottom is Actually In, did you mean 20K or 22k-17k
And what is your expectation for the next, will we witness stability for several weeks at these levels, or a significant increase to 30K or a little more at 38k.
Or will it be a test of 31k and then back to the bottom again?

Glad you found my posts helpful. About the bottom, I mean that this weekly candle close should be it.
But as you know Bitcoin has never been under a scenario of recession before, things might change this time.

If we go up, it will not be able to surpass 28k as that support is now a resistance.
For some reason, I feel like a long daily wick might be the final decision maker in this scenario.

Let's see how it goes :)

I think many bought at the 200 WMA around $22222 and many are buying the $20K wall. However it looks like the wall is getting eaten and most likely in the next 24-48 hours it might break.

If we close on Sunday under the 200WMA it will mean that the technical signal is no longer reliable. The next 72 hours are very critical.

Tomorrow will be a huge day due to the stock option expiry and will provide lots of volatility.

True, and speaking of options expiration, bitcoin future will have it's last trade June 24 and then settlement in June 27.

So along the way as what previous data shows, we might see price going lower and maybe it will go below $20k. So regardless of what the TA is pointing, there could be no validation and yes, no longer reliable. So I'm still expecting worst, I thought that June might be a good month for us, but it seems we don't have any respite from the bears.

I hope this is correct, certainly seems well founded because the path to accuracy in predictions is multiple perspectives of which these indicators should give some insight.   Even if we are forming the bottom pricing it still requires testing and probably we do that multiple times before moving substantially later.
  I think we might take this whole year, there is still a ton of doubt circulating and the majority of people dont derive any confidence from these array of analytics so confidence is low and I think price also will take time to develop.
The price action is really close to the bottom (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AssfT.png), we dont have any clear momentum upwards.   The process to turn this around from negative to positive, first we arrest the fall and stabilize and probably require time to do so.

Yesterday I still saw the price of bitcoin was still around $21K and today it started to drop to $20K and this is a sign in the next 24 hours or 72 hours something they expect to see prices below $20K will happen in the near future And they will buy even more bitcoins to hold on to.

Yea in this current world economic climate its very difficult to call the bottom. We are
heading into a world recession as banks start raising interest rates, both of those
two events havent happened in Bitcoins history so these times are really unchartered
territory for Bitcoin.

But yea great opportunities for DCA'ing

We are certainly closer to the bottom than the top at this point. I’d feel ok recommending people buy again, although I don’t expect any of the people who were excited to buy at $50K to do so now. Human nature and all that. It’s scary with the recession backdrop, but that’s why the price is on sale. I think those that buy now and can hold on for another 2-3 years will likely be well rewarded for their effort.

And now we are just above $21,000, so there is a minor push from the bulls, but we are still not out of the woods yet, we might broke that price and reaches $20,000 in the next 48 hours.

As for the technical signal, hard to say right now, it seems that the market is really fluctuating so hard that no one can guess where will it go. We can only hope that this Sunday, we might end up at around $22,000 or above.

Also holding their coins will be way easier for those that are just entering the market, because even if this is not the absolute bottom how low can the price actually go and for how long the price will remain there? So this is  great entry point for those which are willing to go against the trend and invest in bitcoin right now, I will admit that doing such a thing can be scary for a newbie but without a doubt it is the best move they can do at the moment.

A lower than $20k price is a good entry already better not to waste the opportunity if ever we see this price again. Bear market is indeed a good opportunity to buy and hold, strong money always come on a bear market. With the current situation of every country right now, I think it will take years before we totally recover but doing a good decision right now can be a big thing in the future so invest wisely.

I don’t think the bottom is in. Today on Bitfinex we got some nasty seller who is offloading hundreds of millions of crypto. No idea if it’s 3AC or some other fund.

If $20K is the low, we will get a stop hunt first. Many people longed here and got a stop loss at $19999 that everybody will love to run.

Depending how that stop triggers then it might be time to buy. But there is also the chance that this might go to like $18K very fast since liquidity is low on a Saturday.

Welp, so apparently the bottom wasn't actually in, as we actually tapped $18,700 on FTX and I wouldn't be surprised if we go lower once US peeps wake up. 🤷‍♂️ Oh well.

https://i.imgur.com/If6TvJX.png

I was wrong bottom not in  :'(

Buying down to oblivion...

Oh shit, maybe we should get ready for $17K - $16K or maybe $15K. We're still pretty close to those numbers and it certainly shouldn't be a surprise.

I'm not very good at drawing on charts, but it looks like the red block will soon fill with panic traders considering the current bitcoin price is $18.5K. Even if the price tries to recover, but the possibility of a decline due to panic is still very possible at this time.

https://i.imgur.com/rrAJmxv.png