Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin was meant to break away from the stock market and fake debt based fractional economy. Sadly all the traders and short term gainers have joined the ride. If stocks crash then bitcoin also crashes.

2022 is a 7 year crash cycle known as shemitah year for those who dont know
1966 stock market downer 22%
1973 middle east oil embargo
1980 hard recession, home builders wiped out by 1982.
1987 black Monday stock market crash
1994 bond market massacre
2001, the 911 and dot com bubble crash
2008, the housing  crash
2015, stock market chaos, 7 trillion lost globally. China market crash 40%
2022---

So place your bets on how low it will go!

Unlike your title, you chose a good term here because it is impossible to predict an irrational market. We saw this during pandemic too when people were panic selling like maniacs and it suddenly stopped despite the stock market continued crash and bitcoin reversed and reached a new ATH.
That's just too irrational to predict in my opinion.

It's pointless to try to predict an unpredictable market.

3k in 2020 was unpredictable
China banning bitcoin was unpredictable and so was MtGox bankruptcy.
In traditional markets the 911 was impossible to predict and so was COVID.

I thought it wouldn't go below 20k because the previous cycle high was where it always was able to find support. I bought at 20k and are going to hold it for as long as I can, at least until we go to 100k again. I feel like there are some lower limits like the lows of 2020 that it won't reach because 3k bitcoin is one of the strongest supports in bitcoin's history. If you asked me a year ago what the cycle low would be I'd say 25k because it's right above the 200 WMA and above the 2017 high. Now it's all panic driving it lower and fundamentals don't matter.

I voted for below 15000.

For sure $19k support didn't hold now and most probably at the end of the month maybe we are in the $15k-$17k boundary.

And then some bounce back July before another crash. I see that at the end of the year we might be around $15k and below. I'm no expert, so chances are my predictions will be wrong.  ;D. But it's better to accept that fact that maybe we haven't reached our ATL and that we should be prepared.

116000 will be the new ath, doubt it will go under 10k

@OP actually this pool is useless since below $18K then the rest option ($15K and below $100) is also included on below 18K too. So if Bitcoin price hit any price below $18K, my option is correct since I vote below $18K lol.

There's no relation between stock and Bitcoin, since stock price is depends the company performance either bad or good while Bitcoin itself already the best decentralized coin and have a use case with some update to solve a problem (e.g. scalability) the price depends on demand and supply, which no one control about it. Unlike stock who have limit down for each day.

Pretty shure it will have some kind of flash crash event where a lot of weak hands will go completely nuts and the whales will buy up large amounts. Then the selling pressure is gone since the greedy people are gone also. Because the greedy people then don't own bitcoin they will buy back in in the uptrend for a much higher price and we go to the next ATH. After that we repeat it in a few years  :D

You are right so i changed from below to till.

There's so much going on that people are getting confused. I feel like the FED is trying to slow it down but it won't help. They are pumping the dollar but there's no getting out of this spiral, eventually they will have to let inflation do its thing because they printed so much money that it's going to be impossible to stop. It's like they set the house on fire and are now pouring water over it with a bucket, but it's not going to stop just like that and even when you manage to stop it the house will be unfit to live in for a while.

Fractional reserve banking, quantitative easing, covid lockdowns, everything added to this situation and crashing stocks will not make it better.

My ATL at this point is 14k, but I'm not going to wait for it or bet on it. I sell only in high prices and hold through bear markets. I didn't sell anything at 40 or 30k and I'm not selling at 20. If I'm to hold for another 3 years, so be it.

I am of the opinion that nothing can surprise us at this time when literally anything is possible. We knew that crypto winter could happen, but unlike 2018 we now have circumstances that are much more severe than anything that has happened since Bitcoin existed. I think this will be the biggest test Bitcoin has had so far, and that at this point it is completely pointless to speculate on where the price will stop because @pooya87 said well that the market is completely irrational.

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How Bitcoin is conceived and how people use it are two different things. The philosophy of people who only want profit prevails and they sell at the first sign of panic, and few seem to buy because they expect an even lower price. Those who have already experienced this well know that such things are obviously inevitable, but also that after each crisis Bitcoin becomes even stronger.

$1. It doesn't matter. This is what people don't understand. It doesn't matter. 1 BTC = 1 BTC. You are already rich for owning BTC.

It does matter since then we can load up on more BTC. I think very low prices would actually benefit this forum and people that care about BTC a lot, since many people that only want to earn money would sell their BTC and give people that just want to own BTC because they like it a chance to get a more serious amount and not only a few sats.

Honestly, I don't have a bottom price estimate for bitcoin because it's so damn hard. The price could go down if there is a massive sell-off from panicking people and actually, this has been going on since the price dropped from $40k down. As of right now, the price is around $18k-$19k and maybe it will stay that way for a while or it could drop again. This situation is very difficult to predict because we do not know how much panic people will sell their bitcoins if the price drops again. Better be careful for now and don't rush to sell your bitcoins.

$15k is what's on my mind to be the lowest and just setting it just to make myself prepare if it will go under $18k as we've seen a portion of it.
I also doubt that it will go under $10k and it's gotten too much already but we can't predict this market. Just giving those prices just for the sake of argument but whatever happens, only the panic sellers are the losers on this bear. And those who have come prepared and DCAing are the ones that will have the final say and grandest moment after this.

Truly unpredictable, bitcoin has been trading around $ 22k for the past 24 hours and now bitcoin has dropped to the $ 20,000 support level, which many people don't believe will happen, but it did. This will be an opportunity for those who are looking to own a lot of bitcoin at a discount and there will be panic for inexperienced investors who will sell off their bitcoin and leave the market.

Technically, it can drop to $13,000 to $15,000 but don't forget the power of liquidations and consequent Cascade effects. These things might be significantly bigger in this downtrend as result of institutional effects from 2020 to 2022.

The market was warmed up with halving countdown and institutions join a lot within last 2 to 3 years. Not all of their investment positions are from their own money. They made loan (not repay completely yet) but it is not worst thing. The worst thing is they invested into shitcoins as well. Consequently their portfolios and collateral for their loan vanish quickly last 2 months.

If this type of fiasco continues, we might see a very deep and powerful liquidation to even lower than $13,000. I don't worry too much about this very last deadly liquidations because after all, short squeeze will happen, and price will have V-shaped recovery.

"ATL" will never be the right word to use when talking about Bitcoin, it started from zero and it can't go negative, unlike certain commodities, so forget about this word. Bitcoin can only have bottoms of a bear market.

Anyway, $10k is the next huge stop, arguably the most important test in Bitcoin's existence so far. Because $20k was the peak of previous cycle, and this is the first time of breaking below one, while $10k is the start of the most recent bull run - going below that would be an enormous blow to Bitcoin's image, it would show that Bitcoin is no longer guaranteed to be long-term bullish all the time.

And to look at it, this deep has to come so that bitcoin could reach the ceiling again. Well, $13k-$15k can really be the floor prices and just a matter of time that it can be reached.
When it does, make sure to fill in your bags and take those cheap bitcoins. Do not forget that we all have targets and this time, it's for the buying sequence as the halving is about to come 2 years from now and it won't be that long.

Today, BTC price already dropped below $18k, so the first option is surely wrong. Not sure how far BTC price to fall, but I still believe that BTC price won't drop below $10k. I assume BTC ATL should be around $10k - $14k, considering the option above I will choose $12k. But I am sure it is very possible that the ATL can be lower than $12k, probably around $11k. I don't use any special way of calculating this, so it is purely speculation. I only determine it based on the possibility considering how long the bearish probably last and how far the current price dropped already.

When the price was around $20k, there were predictions that it'll be hard for bitcoin to maintain the resistance and not let the price down. If that happens the price will go far lower, the price tried to maintain it, and today it have gone down to $18000. I've voted for a drop down to $10k, and I'm not sure of it. Based on the statement a drop down to $20k will make the price reach far lower I've predicted it.

Years that have passed before the Bitcoin halving had occupied the $6000 position, it was quite a long time to stay in that position, from the experience I saw from the history before the halving, I predict this time Bitcoin could touch $8000 or $10k, in terms of difenising predictions can be accurate and can be wrong, but that's my belief before 2024.

I still have zero clue about the current situation because we are at the beginning of a recession so it could be a lot worse as well. I still think that it will be 100k+ eventually, but that doesn't change the fact that for the next year or so, it could end up lower and lower due to recession.

It means that we can stay above 18k forever, or we can go under 10k and I would not know, nobody would know really because if they did then they would short it with all of their money and make that kind of profit. This means that time is the only thing that will show us what's going to happen but it's going to be a harsh period for sure and we will have to survive this period in order to profit later on.

Maybe we shouldn't think about how low that Bitcoin can reach this time as it only derailed the situation to further create panic, we'd rather remain optimistic despite the dump it showed. We instead encourage people to remain calm and felt strong with their investment. And besides, we never know how long this situation will stay.

Anyways, $18k, $15k - I don't want people to make-believe about this. It is simple, we can't draw a conclusion for now as the market keep moving up and down. We'd rather take this chance to buy more rather than thinking of more declines.

The global financial situation is an issue and now we are in a period where everything that is happening in the general economic sector is affecting the cryptocurrency space and it is largely due to institutional investors who invested billions into the space and they will book their profit and look for safe heavens especially in gold if there is an economic recession looming.

Hard to see us breaking past the 2020 low -- that itself was a Black Swan event and we were just seeing $8000 a week before that time, so we'd need to get both those again: trading below $10k AND another massive unexpected shock event. We couldn't possibly be so unlucky, could we?

That said, we're going to see a lot more inflation-fighting measures from fiat nations, and the pricing in of further Fed rate hikes means we're getting more low blows for a bit.

$11k is my vote.

15k is my bet and I don't want to see it go lower than that.
I didn't see this all but the economic change might have a lot to do about it. Most investors are now in panic and they are losing money with everyday necessities. Food and gas is now the most expensive of all while commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies are all being sold to remain at the state of where they are used at.
They say this is the good time to invest but there is a high amount of doubt circling all over social media. They are scared, in panic, unsure about where this will go.

$12,000 was mine but yea I find it hard to fathom that we are now talking 12k, 11k, 10k
and possibly lower.

Lucius on page one made the point ^{and its something I pointed out last week} we are in times
 now which have not happened in Bitcoins history so the poll is just a guessing game.

We are definitely entering very interesting times.

I'm prepared either way but would love to go lower until $12-15k so I can afford to buy 1 ETH. Most technical analysis I see says we could reach those price because of some global factors like tax regulations and continuous increase of commodities forcing some holders to liquidate their bitcoin. Altcoins would be more cheaper if that happens and that is what I am looking forward because I will be able to buy huge amount of them.

Bitcoin is always preparing surprises, but I must admit that some members in the Speculation board have been writing for some time about what is happening now, but few of us believed that it was possible. As for further developments, I would say that all the cards are on the table, but that there is much more pessimism than optimism about inflation, recession and war in Eastern Europe. Rising interest rates and increasingly expensive fuel are pushing prices up, and the EU will have big problems with the arrival of colder weather in a few months as it remains dependent on Russian gas and oil.

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As for my vote, I have to admit that I can't decide on any option because I don't want to believe that we can go as low as $10k, but on the other hand, despite a slight recovery yesterday and today, I can't say I believe that we have reached the bottom.

Yeah, the only thing left standing for history to make was for the previous cycle's high to never be broken as support. Past cycles didn't even really come close to past ATHs but this one decidedly went in only the second or third test.

Very interesting times indeed -- even more so with those actually building on/with or securing the network -- especially staring down a long dark barrel of unknowns.

I wouldn't be suprised to see btc touching 12k.

My buy in is around 14k because let's face it, it's nearly impossible to predict the prices when some many entities are manipulating the price.

Some people just assumed that situation like this can run longer, that is why they can make prediction if how low the btc price can go but those who are scared and panicking, that was already their fault and why they join here in the first place if they are unprepared for the worst things that can happen on this market? If they don't want to get more hurt, then they can just close their eyes and ears or better if they can stay offline for some time or until they feel that the market have returned to normal and the majority are now speculating positively.

Anyway my vote on the poll would be the same as you, it's 18k to 15k. Halving is still far so maybe the price can go up and goes down again back at these levels.

For now it looks like we've touched the low bottom. Further it seems to stay above $20k and grow in a slow and steady manner than moving steep on the graph. The market is completely unpredictable and this makes the predictions go wrong. Once the big whales on the market were able to manipulate. Nowadays that has decreased alot as market have matured and started to coexist with the traditional market.

If a polling is done to know how many of the users thought that the price will drop to the current level by this month will let you know whether the price will drop down or not.

2024 isnt exactly that far away, could be as early as FEB month apparently.   I would say generally the 2019 lows are harsh enough to justify a low and genuinely alter the balance between selling and buying strength, at a low enough price its recognized as 'on sale' combined with reluctant sellers or exhaustion of speculative weaker holdings, this is how a low can occur.
   It can be that the price is being put into effect right now, we are seeing action around the 200 week pricing which many make note for longer term holdings.   Suffice to say if you only just decided to sell you are more then a little late to that party.
   We are above both 19k and 20k levels with momentum having price above the 2 day average.  We can have some short term reset when meeting the weekly average, its just above these current highs.  This doesnt mean the price tumbles but sideways slower action may occur.    By these measures we can better decide if a low price has been put in or not.  Weekly bars count mostly.

This current price will be the best position to stay by bitcoin because this could change the sentiments of the market. And I also think that past days dumps are crazy moment for crypto so hopefully it will not happen again since if bitcoin would drop again to $17k -$18k we might see some bad drops and negativity spread more towards the market.

At first, I am expecting Bitcoin will really perform well during these times especially since the inflation in most of the country is starting to increase.

So for the All-time-low before the Bitcoin block halving, -50% from now. $10,000. I am not expecting it anymore it will fall below that area.
If we are really in the cycle of Bitcoin block halving, we will start to see the recovery of price months before the block halving event of Bitcoin which is I already excited.

You maybe can change your title. Remove the word "ATL" since the All-time low of Bitcoin is zero. Change it into "Your prediction of possible Bitcoin bottom before next halving" because that's better.

I voted for $10,000. My lowest support is the $12,000 because I believe that if Bitcoin will enter the bear market, there is a high change that it will repeat what happened in the past and in the 2017-2018 drop, it went down as low as ~80% and if you will compute right now when it reached the peak of almost $70,000, you will come up at near $12,000. On the other hand, Bitcoin never fails to surprise me TBH especially with it's price movements so maybe we might see it again at the $10,000 though the chances of it to happen is low to impossible.

I see two possible scenarios here:

1) We have already hit bottom for this cycle recently and we're not going down anymore. That would be logical, since less than $20k per coin seems like a bargain and hence the recent rebound. When the price goes down a lot, there are a lot of people who buy because they see it as very cheap.

2) We have some other event that takes the price suddenly down, with liquidated leverage positions, and we approach the Celsius liquidation price. In this case we could get close to $10k but I don't think the price will last long at those levels because of the above mentioned, and $10K would be an extremely strong support.

Like what the votes of most here , we are looking for at least 12,000 lowest price but if there is something like the Covid19 pandemic brings? then there will be more lowering to come in our years.
Crypto market is still struggling now , 2024 will be long to come and we may experience more but what we can be so sure ? is that the Bitcoin hyping will come in next from the dip, when time comes? then we are waiting for another more Hyping and the 6 digits? then it will .

Bitcoin prices are currently dropping and the halving seems to have gone unnoticed, maybe there are few bitcoin mining so what is happening with bitcoin right now is due to external factors such as inflation, reduced stock for miners of course will have a big impact on transaction fees which will be high and this is what makes it difficult for us to develop bitcoin.

Bitcoin halving? still very far mate.

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For me I voted $10k, we never thought that we will not reach the previous all time high and yet we went that low and even lower at $17,500 (current ATL). And what's scary is that we are still in the middle of the year, so there's a lot of possibility that the price will still go down and we haven't reach the bottom yet. So $10k for me, worst scenario, that could be -80%++ and that could be a record too if we reach that price level.

Keep on going! We need more replies.
 :P

My expectations that the Bitcoin ATL since the beginning of the last drop will be around 18,000$ until the next halving. This number is somewhat close to reality, I mean I do not expect Bitcoin to fall more than that and I also do not expect that to continue until halving, it is possible that the situation will continue like this until the end of the year after which we will witness a rise in Bitcoin and a return to the levels from which it fell to form a strong resistance to launch a new peak We may get it before Halving, these analyzes are predictions and no one has to know exactly what will happen in the future.

China shows several signs of being anti-Bitcoin so it isn't unpredictable.  Mt. Gox bankruptcy isn't unpredictable it was the hack that surprised everyone.


Bitcoin was down 80% after ATH the last cycle so it is common to expect and see Bitcoin going down below$ 20k this cycle too.  And it did happen.  Well, it is good you had your investment at a much lower price than those who bought above your buying price.

That said, I have an idea looking at the previous cycle chart that the Bitcoin price is possible to cross the $15k barrier in this bear market but I am not so sure so I can just put it as a guess.

from the options that op gave I chose " till 10,000 "

https://i.imgur.com/5odvXWT.jpg?1

because looking at the past when before the halving occurred bitcoin had dropped below $ 5K so maybe now it's 2x.
I believe that bitcoin will always repeat what has been done but for corrections it may only be up to $ 10.

even though eventually resulting in a rapid increase it will be difficult to do and it will take a long time to finish the next halving and then reach renewable ATH.
but this is the advantage of bitcoin which will always make ATH renewable again after every halving.

but from the info I read that in the US / Europe it is starting to get difficult for miners because of the fuel crisis that has not been getting shipments from Russia and are trying to find alternatives to coal and won't this give an impetus for bitcoin to recover quickly? or even worse? we'll see how it goes.

What happens, let it happen, predictions frustrate me, I only take experience this time about ATH happening for Bitcoin and in the future.

I want to buy as much as I can now, nothing more, I'm sure in the future it will be even better.

Right now every crypto user is aware of the market and are in accumulation looking for the halving. The next big price moment is during those days. According to different market movements, it is found that the market will show slower growth for long time period. During this time period it is good to make some profit out of the fluctuation and strengthen the portfolio.

According to me there is more chances of price touching $10k for sure. This can happen close to the month of October. Because there used to be some growth taking place over the end of every year.

What do you mean, bitcoin will rally back to $69k before the halving happens? it will be good news if it happens. I don't think bear season will end so soon, 18k prediction is realistic given the current situation, but bitcoin won't be able to withstand upcoming events like Mt.Gox paying bitcoin to users and wave of interest hikes rate in the last 6 months of the year.

My prediction is $12k will be the last bottom of bitcoin during bear season.

Yes, this is what I expect, it is possible that Bitcoin will return to the top of $ 69k before Halving, this is very possible, as for the case of the Mt.Gox exchange, I think that its impact is very exaggerated because all that will be paid is 140k Bitcoin This number will not have this big impact on The price, as some think, there are larger quantities of these that are traded on a daily basis, I think this event was greatly exaggerated.
 As for raising the interest rate, I think that its effect is negative in the short term only, but in the long run it will have a positive effect, because people will start giving up the dollar and buying bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and this will have a significant positive impact on the price of bitcoin in the future.

But, what are you doing here on this thread if predictions like this frustrates you? It is normal that there are predictions that you can see around because cryptos doesn't have a stable value especially now that the bear is taking to long to end and the price is becomes more unpredictable than ever. You keep on buying bitcoin because you believe that btc can rise more in the future. Isn't that related to predicting?

But, the only difference is that you didn't mention a specific price but you got a point there anyway that what can happen will happen and we people can't do much anything about but accept it when the results are already there.

I said a while back when we were nearer to 50k or the 200 day average that it worst case scenario should probably be the 2019 pricing not the 2017 peak.   We have gone past the 20k area for the rough 2017 high that held till much later and as I remember it was not a significant area on the way up so why should we have it as a special hard ground low in the midst of this negative market.   That was my reasoning some months back and I believe a clearer view is had while not in the middle of what you are trying to estimate, Im going to stick with the hope we do find Summer 2019 prices to be the hard ground.
  It appears we flash down to that area, I wouldn't want to lurk too much in the teen's and roughly in 2020 we did the very lowest prices just for a day or so it flushed out some but mostly we stayed above.

I think that predicting the price of Bitcoin should not frustrate us, it doesn't matter if our prediction results are wrong, at least we have tried
and can learn from every mistake we make. Until finally we can understand how to predict the movement of Bitcoin correctly. Because predicting
the movement of Bitcoin really needs to be done so that we can prepare ourselves for what will happen to Bitcoin. Bitcoin prices are very volatile
and indeed very difficult to predict, that doesn't mean we don't need to make predictions. But instead we have to predict the movement of Bitcoin,
so that we can plan our steps now to deal with what will happen in the future. Although it is very difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin,
at least the results of our predictions can help us give an idea of what will happen to Bitcoin in the future. So we are not confused about what to do
and do not depend on other people's opinions, which sometimes other people's opinions can mislead us.

Bitcoin was once considered a good anti-inflation tool due to its limited supply, but with the economic downturn during the year, bitcoin has failed to show itself as an effective hedge against inflation. Given its volatile nature, bitcoin is not yet ready to be an anti-inflation tool.

If looking at the long term like holding 10 years 15 years, over time the value of bitcoin will increase significantly, this will be a good anti-inflation tool, but in the short term 1 to 2 years is not. The dollar will still prevail against gold and other investments, until the economy stabilizes.

I can't predict an ATL  ;D as that term doesn't exist but I could make an assumption of what Bitcoin price could be before halv happens even if we are 1 year and aprox 7 months until that happens.

If you speak about a last bottom , I would assume Bitcoin will go under 15k at some point and maybe even under 10k for a flash with one happening during this year and the other one in 2023. Could it go any lower than 8-9k ? Low chances.