Bitcoin Forum

First of all, this thread is all about fun and games.  Let's not take this guessing game too seriously and let's not take ourselves too seriously.  One thing I've noticed is a lot of people in here want to look smart or wants to have a bit of clout in the forum.  C'mon we're all the same here.  Second, there's no escape this time.  Just answer with a 'yes' or a 'no'.  None of that 'no idea' bs.  :D  Let's make it fun!

So yeah.. based on what you see here in this chart, please answer the poll.

https://i.imgur.com/04bYLrS.jpg

Yes. The market is grilling.

July will not be enthusiastic because there is not a lot of bad news, so I personally do not expect a change from the same current prices, neither positively nor negatively, but we need to see some green after the previous bloodbaths.

The real change will be in the month of August to the end of October, in which we may witness either levels below 15K or above 30k, although these analyzes are not supported by anything that is my intuition.

In general, I hope that what happened in June will not be repeated

No i do not think that BTC will drop below the 13k-14k range in July, i also do not have any reasons/analysis backing up what i just said, even if i had i don't think it would be necessary to post them, the thread is for fun sentiments/speculations after all ;D.

My predictions for May and June did not come true. Every month I thought bitcoin would bounce back up, but it fell harder every month. For July I am even more confident that a bounce will definitely happen this month, although if I stick to my past predictions, there will be a bigger drop in July. :D

I'm going to be rude and ignore the exact framing for the time at which we do such event.   Can a sharp price drop occur at some point and scare people like the rollercoaster ride that BTC is, sure it can.   But Im not especially negative overall, I dont see 2022 as some terrible unforeseen event.  Its not a 50 year storm, a harsh pullback that cuts to the bone is just what you need to be ready for and plenty people were wearing flip flops instead of chainmail.
  It hurts but its not massively out of character and consider the depths and extremes of events in 2022 with the reemergence of nuclear war in prospect, it aint a happy time so yea we fell back tough as that is.  Volatility is the norm


The more points of contact the greater the trend validity so always take the most commonly confirmed level or trend as the most likely to stand long term.    When or if we break these levels the price accelerates usually.

^ No, call me what you want but I believe it will not down beyond $15k within this month of July.
Unfortunately, I don't have a chart to show to support my prediction, that is how my faith in BTC worked and I believed in it.
Probably the FUD was still there even though we know whales are starting buying now like in El Salvador. Dont make them laugh if you sell it at a cheap price.

80% of the internet thinks BTC will go down, therefore it will go up...

BTC == honeybadger

I voted NO, but I have to say that if they told me to buy now I would simply buy with a condition of placing a stop-loss at 17000$, in my opinion I only believe that we would see the price drop to 13000 - 14000$ if the price drops below 17000 $, as long as it is above 17000$ then there is still hope that it will break 22000$ and go back to 30,000$, of course if this war that Russia is waging does not give a truce then the whole market will be doomed and bitcoin is no exception, I do not expect anything good for july and this year


in the past this was the trend, but from what I see people are getting it right, when the price was 30,000$ many people said: " it will drop to 17000$ " and it dropped to 17000$

Shutting all the news and other sources except on the graph.  I think yes. If we assume that history repeat itself then the year 2023 can be referred to year 2019 of the previous cycle.  It goes down by 80% so by the year 2023 it is possible that BTC will go down to $14k.  So yes, according to the graph (but I already voted no before I read the OP.)

Because of this, I voted NO.
https://i.imgur.com/DIBjU3V.png
source (https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1542672286490271744):

There could be a correction right now but I don't think it will fall down in that range.
Another factor is that I don't see any negative news that can affect the Bitcoin price, instead, it's possible other countries will do the same as El Salvador did which is the reason we're possible back to the bullish trend.

well, i voted no cause i don't want to bitcoin touch that price  ;D ;D ;D that is the biggest support I ever seen on your chart, if broke that we done right although I just open my chart hourly with session break and we can see that bitcoin can't even break near resistance at 20.3 Zone or stable at that zone
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/qPHtE5yZ.png

I am pretty sure we will go sideways for most of July. Even the stock market is looking pretty boring right now. Very little volatility.

Most people are enjoying the summer and not in front of a computer trading. I think September is when the real fun will start with stocks and crypto.

I think with you the stock market today is very lonely and saturated because many of them are turning to gold earnings.
Maybe in early september we look forward to seeing all the changes in the crypto market and hope that everything is as we dreamed of all this time and get out of the hot market.

Still YES , we have bottomed at 17k in June , and now we are falling more because the dumping season wasn't stops here as we are still in the bad year for crypto.

and having been in the recent ATH? maybe more of the losing year is what 2022 may brings.

Indeed , I know   that 3rd quarter is far more bad than what the 2nd quarter is.

My vote would be similar to the polls before this. No idea. Without this I want to show everyone that I am not a pessimistic antagonzier and I voted no hehehehe. However, if someone like Elon Musk becomes a marginal seller and dumps bitcoin to $14,000, it will certainly be a chance to buy and expect a quick reversal.

There will of course be plenty of people who will feel hopeless about the current situation. That doesn't mean to say that we will go up for sure, but the amount of people who will think that we will go up, will be not as much as previous months. We were at "will it go down under 27k" last month, now we are talking about 13-14 so it is clear that we lost some hype in bitcoin. Hopefully we will be doing a lot better soon, so that people would have some more hope. Thankfully its not needed that millions would need to believe in bitcoin, even one person who has a good chunk of money to buy bitcoin would change everything.

The accumulation phase is meant to bore people out of the market.
I remember these boring periods from the other cycles.

https://bitcoincoaster.com/wp-content/themes/btcrcg/assets/images/gif/fan-versions/2014-06-FdPUj8F.gif

The measure is that using the previous years market analysis to analyze this present year, it will bring contradiction in some extent. Because from those years that's both making positive report and the positive situation is recommendable or higher the negative situation, can't be used to analyze this year indecencies that their is numerous positive informations in those days or years, but this year theirs alot of mislead of informations of cryptocurrency. So in summary, Bitcoin is not expected for it's decrement to encroach to twelve thousand (12k).

Looking at the position of the price on the chat at $19,227, you will still be expecting that the price will still drop down more with the way is looking but anything can happen and the price may stay there or begin the pull back. The whales are gradually buying for another direction up, like El Salvador stocking up for the future. I believe the sentiment is still for bear but this is a fluctuating levels that can not be predicted.

The thing is whales aren't aggressively buying.  They are too passive that they probably just leave their buy order below the current market price in order for them to get Bitcoin at the most possible discounted price.  And just like the purchase of El Salvador, I bet they did not aggressively buy that 80 BTC, they just put it as a buy order and then got filled.  With this kind of strategy the buyer imposes, it isn't impossible to see Bitcoin go down to $14k  since the seller will eventually break this resistance and pull the price of BTC lower.

I also noticed that the price of Gold has increased slightly in the past few days and that some people have benefited from Gold. But that's another option they did when the market was still not recovering and that's perfectly reasonable I think. But you also need to know that the current market conditions are not the end for everything. So stay calm, and be patient even though what you dream of from the crypto market may not be achieved in the near future

I'm not really looking forward to Bitcoin under $19k anymore, because I'm 100% sure the Bottom is there,
from my experience, the more people want cheap prices, then it won't happen, we'll see.

That's no fun though! Indecision in the market is key sentiment in itself. I'd have voted "No idea" if I had the opportunity. I guess otherwise waiting to see if $19K holds as support, and voting thereafter would make more sense. Not to mention you are likely upsetting those who are expecting/waiting for $16K but don't believe price will drop to $14K, the same mistake I made on a previous poll apparently.

Despite appreciating these monthly polls you do, it doesn't quite confirm whether people are bullish or bearish at current prices if the two options are $13k - $14k or not, but you do you do  ;)

My predictions are that the drop will continue in July, we may go below $14,000, the decline may continue most of the summer and then bitcoin will start bouncing upwards, I'm not here analyzing but just guessing, I hope bitcoin will disappoint me and keep going up in July though I rule it out that.

Even though bitcoin will continue to fall in July and maybe under $14,000, I won't be disappointed because I have more opportunities to buy bitcoins at lower prices. I believe this is the opportunity many people have been waiting for because they want to buy at the lowest possible price. In addition, if the price can drop further, I predict if the price starts rallying again, the price can rise higher than before. But like you say, that's just my guess, and I also don't know if the scenario will be like that or not. So we'll see.

They say that the amount was too small and it seems they are right because it didn't shake the market much. There might be no negative news directly with btc but there are those scams, stablecoins de-pegging, crisis, inflation and many more which I think have an effect to the btc and the overall crypto market.

The bullish trend can occur even if without those countries that will make btc a legal tender but El Salvador isn't alone with it but there are countries which already made btc a legal tender last time. Even though many users are speculating that btc didn't reach its real bottom yet, I am still against them so my vote for the poll is no.

I have the same feeling. Looking towards the current financial outlook. Negative GDP in Q1, Expected negative in Q2, the rising of prices of the war things turn more negative soon. At least that's my prediction.

The poll is pretty close...  11 votes for yes and 14 votes for no.  But with the whole market getting some action on the buy side, I think people will start forgetting that we're still in a bear market.  But this bounce is good for a small, quick trade to make a little something something for sports betting.  Lol.

This is what I think...  After the bounce, BTC goes break down below 20k again and touches 13k - 14k range.  That's the part we wake up and start buying!

Can we reach $22k then?

It seems that sentiment is very positive, but in the recent months, that's how we start. Couple of increase in the first and second week and then goes down hard again at the start of the third and then the fourth week.

So this might be the trend again, and we might go back to $19k at the end of the month.

I will answer no, there are not enough and clear logical reasons for the price to collapse below the strong resistance level at $17,000.
With all the recent events, the price has held above these levels for a while, so it is unlikely that we will see prices below $17,000 during this month, and we may not see them unless something bad happens in Aug.

We just tested $22.5K, so I'd say so. Predictably rejected by the 200 WMA. I can imagine buyers last month and getting out of losing positions for now, in order to reassess.


This I don't doubt for a second. Price could still consolidate for months to come in the $20K to $25K range, in order for the Weekly RSI to leave oversold conditions and trend higher.

We can tbh.  Next resistance in the daily chart is at 28k and the bounce could very may well reach that imho.  But we'll see.  Crypto has been very sensitive to any kind of bad news lately.  You know...  The bear market of things.  Total opposite of the bull market when a little bit of good news would pump a random coin around 5x in just a week.  :D  That's when the market is easy to trade.  The one we're having rn should mostly be avoided.  Then again, I could be wrong.  17.5k could be the bottom.  But as I always say, we'll see...  Nobody can really predict these things.

I would like to think that the worst is over and that for the rest of the month we will be in the range of 22,000 to 28,000 USD. As you say nobody predicts these things but it looks like we are not going to go below USD 20,000 again, which is a very cheap price for the cycle we are in, and in the future people will look back and think: 'I wish I had bought at 20,000'.

Exactly! July and August will be boring with little volatility. Stocks will be rising again probably in September and will drag crypto with them. The tide lifts all boats!

I think majority is looking forward for Bitcoin's another dip, and a lot of people are actually waiting for the to happen, especially when it falls to $15k or below. However a lot of people thinks $19k would be the bottom judging on how the Btc price were moving lately.
So, there might only be a slight chance for that to happen at least at this current month. Btc recovers to $22k and now it's trading at $21k.

Every bear cycle leaves a lot of bag holders behind, that will be waiting on the pad watching the rocket leave the atmosphere...

I voted no although I want it to be as cheap as it could get. Something tells me it should not. I don't know, maybe instincts.
Maybe I am afraid that the number of FUD will increase. (although its already high now) If that happens, we don't know if it could go deeper because of the market reacting to FUD and investors in panic.
Let it stay playing at 19-22k and I wish that is the bottom for this year. If economy gets better next year then good times will come.

Not sure though if the worst is over, we still have the last quarter for this year, although historically last quarter specially the month of November-December might be good even in bear market, but we are still not out of the woods yet. There could be some announcement from Fed that might affect the price this July or the next coming months. But if you are talking $22k this month, yeah it could be achieved easily as we are almost on that price range already.

Are you following the market tho?  It's really not boring rn esp altcoins.  And from a TA perspective it looks like the bottom is in but from a macro perspective everything looks like it's all going to shit sooner or later.  So I guess go long with the bounce and see where it takes us.  I'm looking at 28k to be the resistance for this run.  Dunno..  I could be wrong.

https://i.imgur.com/8TYlbbm.jpg

I still do believe that Bitcoin will fall under 20k during this summer and most likely will fall under 15k during the winter and beginning of 2023. If this scenario will happen , Bitcoin should start to drop in price by the end of July and start of August as previous bear markets were kinda the same during 2018-2019 and 2015-2016. The charts also indicate that we didn't hit the bottom but we all know it's super hard to predict the bottom but you can anticipate some margins.

Of course there is always the opposite scenario when BTC could go over 23k this July and if that happens , there is a pretty good chance to continue to climb until 29k range when it will meet a strong resistance.

28k all at one move could be a bit of a difficulty. I am not saying that it won't happen, all I am saying is that it doesn't seem easy to do, it should take a while before it could do that. I am guessing that the best thing to do right now would be wait and see, and hope that it goes up at a reasonable level, instead of a very high one.

I understand why people expect 28k right away, but we should learn to be happy with 24k if we reach there as well. Doesn't mean that it's a bad decision, it just means that we are doing fine and if we end up somehow at 28k then we would be happy about that even more. That's how I am trying to approach it at least.

Bitcoin will indeed go up but it's going to annoy all the greedy bastards and get them to rage quit first 8)

the want of people in cryptocurrency doesn't determine the regulations of cryptocurrency. The regulations is dependable directly or strictly to the market determination structure. What actually you can see bitcoin at before you can believe that it has gotten to the bottom is what?  At any moment Bitcoin is stagnant it's the bottom of bitcoin and even other cryptocurrencies at a moment, because expecting bitcoin downgrade more than this way, it's quiet unexpectedly. While it's having a positive situation and report currently, it's because people or investors are returning to the market gradually.

Oh ok, I haven't make any chart yet because of the volatility so I stop for this month. So maybe in short term or at least for this month, it will be good to see $22k (currently at $21,719.21 per cmc).

And I agree, the market is very sensitive that we will react to any bad news, specially like the Fed rate hike and then the war in the background. Everyone is affected, even the traditional stocks has also impacted with this news. Hopefully that $17.5 will be our bottom, no more bloodbath or at least we have seen it this year.

A 2nd retest under 20k is at least 50% likely I think.   If we only test the lows it would be quite calm by comparison to the extremes in prospect, I was expecting worse with this great upset in two main components to dollar.  Its an external shock this time is how I see it as Euro and YEN weakness at the same time and yet the FED raises rates and other events, all adds up

Well perhaps we must be careful of this recent minor increase in the price, it could be a reason to trigger pull out the price but perhaps I am wrong but it is not time to celebrate showing the market green. The month of July is something interesting to watch because if it will resist, there could be a bull run but if it will field, for sure there will be another correction will occur. However, we should watch the market closely so that we will know this month of JULY.

Therefore, a test of the upper limit of the channel might tell us that a break-up might occur. To be honest I believe this more than Bitcoin will soon fall back to the level of the previous bottom. There has been a lot less negative news on the market so far, which might be a good thing.

You've been watching these markets for as long as I am to say that's not usually the case.  Here's what happened in the past.  We get dead cat bounces and then sideways action...  Everybody starts thinking it's finally the 'bottom' then out of nowhere a quick sell down lower, hitting the bottom for a slooow recovery up.  But by then a lot of peeps have run out of money or have given up at the most crucial moment. 

I agree that it looks quite close to each other, but there has always been some people who were going with the flow of bitcoin at all times. Some people who see it go from 20k to 30k think it will go to 40k, but see it go from 30k to 20k think it will be 10k. They do not really comprehend the "it will eventually stop" mindset, which is weird because by that logic it would be either one million dollars or zero.

In the end, we are going to see the price stop going down, and we probably saw it already, it is doing alright right now. If we believe that and continue like that, we should be fine, there shouldn't be any problems at all. That is at least how I see it going.

Or more likely a retest to the previous all time low of $17,500 will be met in the following months. I'm not sure but is there a FED rate announcement this month? If there is then definitely, this kind of scenario (testing all time high), is likely going to happen.

We've seen one government already being affected by the war and the oil price and the pandemic that it can't sustain, and they declared bankruptcy and the government falling, and that is Sri Lanka.

I believe that for the rest of July and August we are not going to have any big surprises. It is normal that we will stay more or less at these levels, maybe going below $20k again or maybe going up, but I doubt very much that we will go over $30k.

In September we will see, things will start to move again, and the way the general outlook looks I don't see it very bullish, but who knows.

I believe the bear hasn't still been exhausted. BTC is more likely to head south once more before leveraging up scale. To that effect, I'm hoping a $12-13k movement is possible and I think we are going to get there before the end of this month. A lot of those who buy now are likely going to be scared out when that time comes and will offload whatever Bitcoin they've in panic, especially the noobs among them. If you're a noob investor and you're reading this post now, I urge you not to panic when you find Bitcoin in that region. Hodl, and don't panic. BTC has been known to bounce back from worse scenarios.

The bear season will still extend until the end of this year but never have I seen this will drop below $15k this month and even in the coming months.
Just looking at the market chart seems to see the price of Bitcoin just moving back and forth ranging from $18k - $21k. This could be the sentiment we are able to see the whole year until this bear season ends.

Well, I think we need also to extend our patience as well as it takes a little bit longer before we got in profit. Holding really matter at this time.

I was always in anticipation with bitcoin at $17k area is my dip as we have reached that price last month and we bounce back to 22k yesterday but now we are heading back to below 20k ... well the pattern is become clearer now ... despite yeah still nobody knows what is the next market move.

Dropped in a range of $17k and $21k is where you could make money instead of being panic.

It would be quite tough to make it go down from here. All the weak hands are already gone, which leaves people who would like to short bitcoin right now and make money from it by selling their coins and make it go down. Not impossible of course but quite unlikely.

It takes a lot more money to make it go down than the amount of money required to make it go up. When that flips, people realize that they would rather make it go up than keep getting it even further down. Just to give an example, if you sell 1 billion dollars worth of bitcoin or if you buy 1 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, the % profit you could make is bigger in the up version, hence why I believe it will go up.

the fact is that nobody knows when cryptocurrency price is going to be normalise because looking at this year market plans. It is quite obvious that the market kept showing negativity which it is open to everyone that this July that is no hope of little experience of bullish increase in the cryptocurrency. Secondly, I don't base prediction of cryptocurrency to analyse what market will determine in the next step. Because i see cryptocurrency like unpredictable currency which nobody knows it's regulations and validation

Actually I don't have a good idea about the possibility, but it's always possible to see such a big drop. $14K is a much lower price than the previous low, that's still possible because the bear market is still holding up today. I wasn't expecting such a decline actually, but we couldn't prevent it. Maybe I would have thought the end of July the bitcoin price would close at around $18K, but who knows?

If there's nothing events to await which can hype the investors this year then maybe we cannot see any bullish season to happen this year, the bullish season I mean is the same what happen on halving season effect so most provably its either we go stable or drop. But for sure many are aware of possible dump so for this we must prepare for something bad to happen so that we can get the best position as possible to gain profits for future pumps.

$18k is still a bear price for the end of the month, it may still go further down by the day since it is still the trend. The price today seem a little stable and better, no high fluctuations. The range is oversold from RSI but I think the market is taking some time to begin uncertainty and the rush for buy will take price up back.

$18,000 for me is strong support, once it will be broken below, then I am expecting there will be a very drop around almost $15,000. This is already proven before when we started to follow below $25,000 and $20,000. The pressure of selling is very huge. But for July? I am not expecting we will fall this July on $18,000 or even worst is around $14,000.

Yeah, it seems that it is holding right now. Actually, $19,000 is, we haven't go down that price this July so let's see how it goes, we still have two weeks and hopefully nothing drastic will happen on the price and push it to below $19,000 otherwise, it will be an avalanche of sellers again, who are afraid of the declining market. Let's just stay positive, again two weeks is a long time, but hopefully we can go back to $20,000 at least before the end of this month.

While there are several posts and thread that I come across bringing this to possibly happening soon? yet i come not to believe because of how bitcoin perform these days.

though falling below 20k from time to time at least managing to keep that strong hold and not falling below 17k up to now.

so basically i think we will keep this strong holding till next month or till 4th quarter?

Bitcoin is back to $19k now after failing to break the $21k resistance few days ago so it's really hard to tell if below $15k could happen this month. As long as US doesn't report a higher inflation on their next CPI review then I think we'll be stable at this price until the end of the month. One thing I'm sure is that we haven't hit the bottom yet but it will happen this year or early next year.

I feel like it's gonna be ranging between 18k - 22k from here on out for as long as it could and it'll just wait for something to happen..  A catalyst to put it back in bull mode.  Whatever that may be, I don't think it's coming this year.   And if anything, it's looking like it could get worse.  I remember around Dec 2018 when we all started to think BTC was all stable and out of nowhere it started to go down from 6k to 3k in a couple of days.  Lolol.  Same thing with the drop of Jan 2015, from 300 to 150.

But those 50% drops marked the bottom tho.  So be on the look out for that this time around too.

After failing to break the $21K price resistance, the bitcoin price has fallen back to its current low price, the negative sentiment that continues to hit bitcoin seems to make us have to be patient to see another upside, but I'm personally quite optimistic that bitcoin won't fall more than $17K and that's why my belief is still big if bitcoin is still a good enough investment for the long term.

True, the downtrend is still continuing and that makes it difficult for the price to reach the $25K resistance. I'm not so sure about $18K at the end of July, but it actually makes sense to put it at a good price for the current trend. I'm still waiting for the best time to buy, while at this point I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be the right time to do it if DCA wasn't in my mind. So going to be a little more relaxed for now and wait for when I have to spend out some money to buy some.

My vote is NO! Expectations for 75 BPS rate hike is currently a possbility, very close to 100%, BUT Bitcoin might have priced it in after the Fed's 9.1% CPI print during Wednesday. There will also be no more increases in the interest rates until September, the next FOMC meeting. Buy the DIP, and? 8)

I also remember last year most people (including myself) expecting $100K prices, but that never happened. I also remember in 2018 when it seemed like Bitcoin was stable, and most people thought the bottom was in, prior to price dropping in half. To me there is more significance to the fact that price didn't reach $100K last year and $6K wasn't the bottom in 2018 despite most people thinking this would be the case.

Currently it seems clear that most people are expecting another drop, towards $12K or similar. If history repeats itself, then most will get it wrong. I'd generally be a lot more concerned about a big drop if most people thought the bottom was in already, but given that most seem to think the bottom isn't in, mainly as they are convinced as negative CPI and fed rates will cause prices to drop further.


I agree here, Bitcoin quickly dropping 50% within a matter of weeks after months of price stability is usually a good indicator of a bottom being formed. Ironically, this has already happened, even if it can happen again:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pGZTkpMH.png

I'm not saying this is the bottom, but just referencing that if you're looking for that quick 50% drop for a bottom to form then look no further...

The price of Bitcoin doesn't move far, May, June, and until today we have never seen it surpass $23k. I'm predicting that we still stay in that position and price range for this month of July. And I was also thinking this even be the price we saw for this quarter. Well, I have no problem dealing with this situation as for me even if it reaches back and remains at $18k, that is still far from what we had experienced during the last bear season. I couldn't think that gonna happen again knowing that people had already learn how to control their emotions.

I think we're past the point when BTC could 'quickly drop' 50%.  What could start happening is we get these dead cat bounces and slowly go back down lower and lower just like 2018.  It could be different this time around but then again it could be the same as always.  I have seen the same people saying the same thing they did at 2018 as they do today...  They love saying we hit bottom and it's up only from here but then it drops lower.  :/