Bitcoin Forum

Hi ,

First started crypto in February this year so am new to all of this and the current bear market we are going through.

I have so far invested £4,500 and my portfolio is down 45%. I have not sold any of my positions and have kept buying at these low prices with the intention of holding until the bull market comes and I can cash out some nice profits.

I have been dollar cost averaging the last 5-6 weeks since we had our first real crash in May which means I now have pretty good average buys for all my holdings so hopefully when the bull market does come again it will take no time at all for me to be in profit.

I understand none of us know exactly when the next bull market will be here but I am just wondering if anyone could give me their experience with what it was like during previous bull markets and how fast we can expect our investments to grow again?

What did you mean by you have not close your position? Using leverage to hold? If you are not using leverage, it is secure to move your coins to a noncustododial wallet. If using leverage, know that the risks are higher than it no leverage is used.

Dollar cost average can help instead off buying all at ones. If you are losing 45% already, it will be better not to panic and sell, continue holding if you can do this for long term.

Be expecting a slight bull and bear market in 2023 but be expecting a massive bull market in 2024. You have said it already, no one knows when the next massive bull market will begin, we are only predicting based on analyses of past price volatility but which may be accurate because bitcoin has never failed in long term bull prediction before.

I mean I have not sold any of my positions yet I am just continuing to buy at these lower prices and will hold until the bull run comes even if that does mean I have to wait till 2024.

I have most of my portfolio on Coinbase but yes I have been looking at different hardware wallets lately as I do feel I will need to get my investments off the exchanges sooner rather than later.

During bull runs, Altcoins typically have extreme volatility.  Particularly Altcoins that only serve as a meme.

With that being said.  I can tell you there will be a few scenarios you will probably be living at the time your coins start going bullish.

First of all, most of them will get you big profits and chances are you will not sell, they will decrease substantially and then you will start waiting for another bull run which may or may not ever happen again.  Keep in mind some coins have gone forever after one or two bull runs.

If you are lucky to be one of the few selling at high prices.  Then good luck not missing the highs.  It happened to me too many times to have overnight bull runs that I completely missed due to .. sleep.

Then you have coins that get longer bull runs.  Maybe days or weeks long.  These are great and you have enough time to take the right action with your investment.

But what happens most often is.  You get a coin with a good average, the bull run begins, you get the false feeling of possibly becoming a millionaire and the coin starts dropping.  Then you just hold in greed because you did not sell higher and then you end up losing more money.

This is how Altcoin investments typically go for the regular person.  If you get to listen to your gut feeling rather than emotions and greed, you will do VERY well.  The main thing is.  Try to keep everything under control and take your time before taking decisions.  And stop following trends and social media.  Follow social media just to keep up to date with your coin's development and all of that.  But do not invest in coins just because everyone seems to believe it will turn you into a millionaire.  This is the worst mistake you can make.

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Regards,
PrivacyG

Lucky for you, you didn't panic like many who sold most of their coins even at a loss, although it's certainly not easy for you considering that instead of £4500 you now have cryptocurrencies that are worth half as much. You are right when you think long-term, but regardless of whether we can assume that history will repeat itself, we cannot be sure whether the new bull run will start after the halving in 2024, whether it will happen before that or perhaps during 2025.

Be that as it may, you need to arm yourself with a lot of patience and be persistent if you want to achieve your goal no matter what it is. This is my third bear market and I've already gotten used to not looking at it as something negative, regardless of what the media and disappointed investors keep repeating - but it's nothing I haven't heard before.

Looking at recent history;

2017
During the 2017 bull run, the market started moving upwards very slowly at about April, before then, the price hovered below $1k, and even below $500 about a year before (2016).
The price run up to over $20k took till December, which is about eight months total. Then came the steep decline in 2018 as the price gradually climbed downwards.

2021
Following the above bull run, the price slowed down and bears took over with Bitcoin dropping to about $3k.
There were momentary spikes in price in middle 2019, but it wasn't until September 2019, few months after the halving that the value of Bitcoin really started to pick up, and it took about 7 months from there for us to reach the value of $63k in April, after which came a sharp decline.
This however was not the end of the bull run as Bitcoin still reached a new all time high in Nov, 2021. So this bull run lasted about 13 months.

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Note that this is no indication of future price actions, and you could be waiting well last 2024 to see the next bull run.

Let me first congratulate you for investing on bitcoin instead of other cryptocurrencies that have higher risk than you could think of, should in case you're not told, bitcoin is the only digital cryptocurrency that deserves an investment with but that does not mean that there's no risk at all in doing so, it is a volatile currency that can move up or down in price, and how you study and understand the timing to when to enter the market, buy, sell or hold determines your chances of high profitability you stand to derive and this is only the digital currency whose reputation has a great value over time for an investment against other cryptos.


This time is an opportunity to add up to your experience in learning to know when to sell and hold, you have to understand the bullrun and bearish implication considering the history of the past events along with it, definitely bitcoin will rise and you will have the better opportunity to make profit when that time comes, i hope you had enough patience to hold till then.

It's good that you were able to know and understand that patience is required in trading or even Holding cryptocurrency token as asset. For to get the belief that the market will bounce back you are already in profit, I am pretty happy for you for taking this solid decision of continuous buying at this dip. please keep it up the joy will follow it up letter.

Thanks but I only started investing in Bitcoin 2 weeks ago when it dropped below $20k. I felt it had always been too expensive until recent weeks and am glad I waited hopefully it can stay below $25k for a while so I can accumulate a good amount to hold long term.

I don’t understand why people sell at a loss and I would rather hold. Being 45% down right now is not ideal but I want to hold for 2-3 years at least and by then should see good amount of profit, especially if I keep buying at these lower prices which I plan to do.

When bitcoin made a bottom on 18th June and then came back to $21.8k from $17.6k, MATIC did a 100% growth in 4 days.
That is x2 in 4 days. Now it depends on your asset and the pump in the volume to break the local resistance so you can make a good recovery resulting in good results.

At least be ready to wait for a couple of years, just in case, and avoid panic selling of your assets at lower prices. Bitcoin bull runs are said to follow 4-year cycles, but you never know this time things could be different

Meme coins were not a thing in 2017. It was mostly about ICOs. This Bull run was about Meme coins, Defi's, Metaverse, GameFi etc. In the next bull run, it could be some other new hype.

The charts always keep the entire history and you can see how things were in the past without needing to hear it from other people who may not give you the most clear information. For example you can look at the charts during the 2018 bear market and the subsequent rise from $3000 to $10000 in a short time to see the speed of the rise after reaching the bottom for bitcoin.

If you are bag holding altcoins, then things depend on that altcoin because majority of altcoins will not see any "bull market" ever again. Just like those that died in 2018 and never went back up. For example ETH dumped from 0.15 in 2017 and was never able to recover it even after 5 years.

Very important point out there, forgot about it.

Although many Altcoins have insane volatility during bull runs and you can make a ton of money, most of them hardly ever get to their Bitcoin ratio All Time High again.  That being said, while you can make a lot of money during random volatility, you can lose out on a lot of profits by not investing strictly in Bitcoin rather than Altcoins.  Even the best coins such as Monero barely get to compete with Bitcoin when paired with it directly.

$0.1 to $1 may seem like a lot, but it is something Bitcoin did pretty much every bull cycle.  In fact, Bitcoin had even more impressive outcomes.  And if you invest in a coin that goes 1,000% and my Bitcoin goes 2,000%, what you have is some profit you simply missed on.  So if you really take your time to analyze coins, you will find out the most profitable overall is still the beast, Bitcoin itself, even at these prices some people may consider 'too high to invest'.

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Regards,
PrivacyG

You're doing great.

Mostly on the 2017 bull run, many didn't cash out and sold for profits and that's why for this recent bull run, I'm sure that many have learned their lessons of selling for profits.

It took most of us around 4-5 years until we applied that lesson that we got from the bull run of 2017 and bear market of 2018. Do not worry, you're already set based on what you've said for the long term.

Our investments through crypto won't grow just overnight, your success story soon will be one of the best when the bull's back.

Keep doing what you are doing, don't sell and invest in the long term for several more years and you may get the best return on the investment.
Do not expect the price to rise again in the near future, as there are many negative variables, but after several years we will witness crazy rises.

You can only tell that the bull season is here when you see the prices of bitcoin and the rest of altcoins continue to surge and consistently showing positive market feedbacks until they all reach their new ATH. But of course, bitcoin will always be the first coin to skyrocket and then influenced the whole crypto market. And when that happens, we will expect that our long term hodling has paid off and it will bring huge profits before more than we expected.

Bull market will have its own way to make you experience the best of profits, and you will only know that its happening already if the market is not bloody anymore and that all the coins are experiencing positive price feedbacks. For now, just focus more on buying and long term hodling, because that will be your best source of profits when the market starts to recover. Though it may not happen so soon as the market is still in a deep crash, but just continue to have positive mindset and never be enticed to do panic selling as it will only lose everything you have.

These bear season are usually long and usually last for 1-2years. Don't expect your investment to grow sooner this year or even next. Bull cycle is where people are very euphoric because many crypto are going parabolic and is able to pump 10x or even 100x. Self proclaimed trading gurus are very active during that market season. They hype different coins that will attract many newbies to buy it. What you 've been doing is the best strategy now as long as you will be able to hold it until the next market cycle.

We just have to be sure that the bull market will come back soon and before its arrival, we have to prepare ourselves to have a lot of potential so that we can have a chance to sell it at the highest price.
I agree that now is the time to focus on long-term buying and holding as prices have fallen to low prices.
But that doesn't mean we're already at the lowest level because no one knows whether the price will drop deeper or stay at this price level after this.
Sooner or later, the market will recover and once you are ready, you just need to be patient and maybe exiting the market is the solution to avoid panic.

A bull market will definitely happen, we just need to wait and be prepared with the assets we have bought.
The current market price cannot be said to be the lowest price, because the current market sentiment is still not good. Therefore, doing money management is very important in case the market is not as we want it to be. Exiting the market to avoid panic may be an option, but remember you have to keep monitoring the market from time to time and determine the target price to be achieved.

for cryptocurrency generation and industry, you most summon courage of having patient and exercise much patient for cryptocurrency if actually you want to patterner and invest into cryptocurrency. Trading is one of the things someone have to learn and understand it's adoption and before going into it fully, because the features involves understanding and because of the nature of the market cap.

If you are new to this market, people will expect that there will be more losses before you create gains in the market. However, your story seems different from them. I’m glad you know already the value of patience and persistency when hodling your coins for long term. But do not expect that the incoming bullish season will be here after a couple of months. Prepare yourself because it might only happen after a year or two, no one really knows. But once the bullish market is here, everything is profitable, most particularly for bitcoin if you chose to hold it for long term and never tempted to sell.

I am quite surprised that you started just in February and you did not panic or sell when the plunge/crash began, it is a very good choice, but not one that newcomer investors take quite often, many newbie investors are into the get rich quick reverie, and thus they can't handle a plunge/correction phase, either they sell or they fall seriously sick over the dump. It is pretty much good you did not of that, considering the fact you have also invested a large sum of money, at least to me. Bear periods are pretty much a favorable time to accumulate more Bitcoins, but sadly quite a lot of people are always too scared to capitalize on the opportunity.

Before I started in February I did a lot of research and watched a lot of videos and one thing I learnt quickly was you only lose when you sell. Yes I may have to hold for another year or two and my portfolio may go down to 60% loss but what is the point of selling, just hold.

I have heard Bitcoin predictions from £250k -£1m by 2030 so lets say £500k is realistic, we will all be well in profit if we accumulate now at these low prices and hold.

what are you doing in Dollar Cost Averaging is good choice and how quick bull market is hmm bull market usually happens very quickly rather than the bear market is

before bull market happens accumulate is occur first

Remember in 2017, Bitcoin grew to $19k from $11k within a week, Altcoins pump 20-30% every day, if significant news they could also double.

This is my second bear market experience in the space, the first was in 2018 after the 2017 bull cycle. Something I have learnt is that majority of the coins currently been hyped won't have same hype next bull run which is why you don't have to buy into their hype right now. I don't know the coins you're holding but just know they mightn't recover. A new wave of altcoins would be introduced into the market just as we didn't have Defi, gamefi, metaverse categories in previous bull run so be cautious of your investment.

We have coins that have a history of recovering and the chance of them still existing by the time the next bull market come is high which are Ethereum and Bitcoin. This coins buying them now can give you 2-5x in the future. Investing in those instead of the thousands of shitcoin out there would be more safe. The bull cycle usually comes after Bitcoin halving has been completed so don't be expecting the bull market fully anything soon.

Maybe try to see the old data's of past bull run so that you can search those important information you need, also by reading it for sure you can get an idea on how fast the price pump when bull run happen. If you ask people here for sure you will get different opinion and sometimes you will not understand clearly why such thing happen.

Data's is available everywhere so best to search since you can learn something by doing those things.

I definitely agree with this. There will be a new batch of new altcoins that will be given a chance to rise and by hype when the next bull run arrives. I think past altcoins that is hyped last bull run can possibly experience a major price pump depends on the progress they have on this bear market.  So it would be smart to be selective on recent coins that will continue to offer their utility on next bull run. We should expect a new trend in the next bull run, There will be new concept that will arrive in this bear market and those concept are the one that we shall focus on.

The last bull market was not really much profitable for me because i never sell a lot. But for others, i'm sure they made a lot of profits that time. And if you expect that investments will quickly grow, no, you will only see their growth and progress gradually if you consider them for long term investments, which means you need to buy at its cheap price and hold them for long like a year or two. That way, you will make tons of profits if you sell them when there is bull run.

Even having those data in our hands, we still, never can tell what gonna happen next. We also have to remember the volatility of the market, things will change apparently which is why I don't consider the past as my basis for the future. SO, instead of being bothering ourselves and thinking about that, we'd rather wait and help ourselves prepare for it.

You better grab your bag OP and fill it. The market will soon recover, and you neither miss the opportunity given at this time.

Sometimes we are even very surprised by the price difference from one hour to the next. sometimes the increase or decrease occurs very drastically in just a matter of hours. That's why many people suddenly get rich suddenly because of a very fantastic price increase. or vice versa, many also lost and lost their money due to a drastic decline in a very short time.
And regarding the increase during the upcoming Bullrun, it may also take several stages while there is still market correction. It could happen in a few months for the long term.

As far as I can remember, back in 2017, the price of Bitcoin during the first quarter of that year was around $4,000-$5,000. On the last quarter of that year, its price skyrocketed and reached an ATH of $20,000. Though that may have been the case, every reason for a bullish run is circumstantial- meaning that the prices may increase or decrease further depending on the circumstances that may happen this year.

But I do commend you for not panicking and selling your investments even if you are down by 45%. Most people in your situation would have panicked and claim that investing into BTC would be considered a "scam."

That is correct.
For now, with the market turmoil that is still uncertain, we must be careful in determining when to enter the market, when to leave the market, and when to buy and sell.
By managing money, we can hope to use it properly and correctly so we can buy at the right time.
If we can use it now, we can sell when the bull market comes and get big profits later.

In the bull market, the price slowly moves towards the upper levels, or we can say, small dumps and big pumps. While exact opposite happens in the bear market small pumps and big dumps.

That's why it is always said that buy in bear market and sell in bull market. Buy the fear sell the fomo.

Right now you are only down 45% which is not so bad as I see on twitter people are down to 80-90% who invested in new projects or shitcoins.

No one can predict even how you study but atleast you will get a confidence on what will happen on future unlike if you don't do any research and just rely only on the news or sentiments of the people for sure you will not get any clear insights  since most provably the one you get are those people who got afraid then might it will contribute to your fear factor then dump immediately what you own at that time.

So research is one good step to take for future use.

Well let’s go back to the most recent bull run, i think it also caught the interest of non-crypto Enthusiast, what I can say is that it sometimes swift and just keeps going up, the bull run presences is very obvious and even Alt-coin partake in it as we saw in the case of Doge coin, but you must also understand that some projects/coin may not positively reflect the bull run and that’s why what you holding matters comes to play, as a Newbie don’t think you can get any Alt-coin because it’s cheap and during the bull run you would cash in on it, do a sound research always.

The same way we experience long candle sticks push prices downwards same when longer candles push prices upward during bull market. If the bull trend begins we will start seeing consecutive long candle sticks frequently appearing on the Bitcoin price chart at intervals. The more this longer candles form the higher the chances of welcoming a bull market

Let me quickly add this; I hope the coins or tokens or you are doing daily cost average are not shitcoins? The reason behind it is for your future return on investment. Most altcoins are a disaster if you hold them, some will bounce back after the bear market and many of them die and the few that do recover don't usually break the resistance of previous all time. If you happen to buy from the top to the bottom, you may likely not get back much profit that is why it's always advisable you buy and hold on to bitcoin.

One thing you should know again, bitcoin has never experienced this kind of growth, the institutional investors and the price discovery($67k), within last year and this year, lots of circumstances have happened that led to the heavy correction of the market, some protocols have become insolvent and now BTC is below 200MA for more than a week for the first time, you see why you need to relax, patience and be optimistic. If possible buy keep buying BTC and hold them in a cold wallet.

I sincerely hope all that you're hodling is Bitcoin though? That's the most guaranteed to bounce back from a big fall. Otherwise, you may want to reevaluate your portfolio. To hodl altcoins for long term you've to be too certain of their utilities and the roadmaps they're on to so you don't end up bag holding. For those who sell in panic, there's a solid reason they're in the market; that's to enable those buying have enough coins to buy. Without sellers at a time like this, those who are skilled at making buy entries wouldn't get an opportunity to buy cheap.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable but one can speculate well base on the history of past events that have occurred, i will first suggest you go and read about bitcoin halving, in doing this, it will give a more better understanding to how the event goes along with the rise in the price, it fall and why,  when all parameters were well set before participating, then the major thing of consideration is on what coin was an investment made.

You already have to know that we can't predict the market and ask how fast to expect for the bull market, still, nobody knows. Just leave it that way, you can still invest more as long as your intention is to hold long-term, that can't be a problem as for sure the Bull season will come someday. Don't bother to think it how long as this will make you think about selling earlier. A lot of people come into that situation as they lost their minds while waiting, I'm afraid it will happen to you as well.