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Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

If it were in another sport maybe I would see it as a value bet but in tennis I don't see it as a value bet because there are only two players fighting against each other and the physical form here is the thing that matter the most beside the undisputed talent of course.

In such a delicate event anything can happen,like a damage to the ankle which is highly likely in a tennis game that is why I would not put a lot of money on this and I don't find it a value bet.I would find it a value bet if I was sure no physical damage will happen to Djokovic during the game,then surely this can be a value bet.

Live bets are always difficult to get that is why gambling houses have implemented them in a huge majority.I don't know about basketball,difficult also to predict.

Yesterday in the WNBA, Connecticut Suns played against Washington Mystics.
Prematch Suns were 1.30 and Mystics 3.50
Washington led by 17 in the first half, were completely dominant. Then you got 2 quarters of opposite domination by the Suns.

It ended 66-66 and went into an Overtime.
Once the OT started the odds were 1.50 on the Suns (some sites offered only 1.40) -

The Suns played at home and the momentum completely changed towards them - stll, it's risky but they won by 2 points.

It's tough to do sports betting live and find those value bets. I used to do it on football's Premier League and/or La Liga. I usually bet on the favorite when the underdog leads at halftime or when they score first with plenty of time left in the second. Pre-match odds of 1.20 easily goes up to 1.50 or higher when that happens. If you're going to do it too, try to check if the momentum of the game is shifting or not before placing a bet. It also helps if you understand the sport and know the teams well.

That's correct - we have seen game changing at the last moment. Those who really make the right bets are the real champion.
Making blind moves is surly not the skill needed in gambling.

Betting on Djokovic was definitely not value bet yesterday. It seems to me that after Timmy equalized the score in sets, it was necessary to bet on him, since in fact he was able to equalize the game, but the odds for his victory were very large, since Djokovic remained a clear favorite. In the end, Djokovic won, but if he lost, then everyone who bet on him with a seemingly good odds of 1.25 would lose a lot of money - the profit was not worth the risk.

For me it's how I perceive teams higher or lower than the given odds. The live bet you mentioned is a good example IMO as sometimes it's better to wait for favs to trail a bit before placing a bet so you'd get better odds and handicap. For the second example, there's still value but I think it's less compared to the first example as the totals tend to adjust much faster depending on the pace of the match but there are cases where the games is expected to go under but surprising go over and still hit the pre live total.

I recommend you consider sports betting live in Premier League and La Liga. If you do, try to check the momentum of the game before placing a bet and make sure you understand the sport, teams and players. In tennis, it is difficult to get valuable odds due to the rules imposed by the casino.

Yeah 1.25 is definitely value there.  Did anyone really think djok would lose?  I look at it as I they played 4 times would there be a game he would lose?  If I answer myself no then the bet makes sense.  That's how I perceive value when betting.

Value bet is a kind of bet where a results of bet is really overestimated or underestimated. That bet is called it value bet. There were some match, this year we've seen many match of Barcelona where odds was really

underestimated for the competitor and overestimated for Barça, you would have earned so match by betting against Barça  ;D

I think it's an acquired skill to pick out these sort of value bets and still very hard o beat the sportbook analytics in the long run. With enough practice and a keen eye you could probably make it profitable, I was once able to pick something like 8 winning bets in a row for a free competition, although that's an extremely rare event - most of the time you'd barely be able to pick 2 or 3 correct in a row at a coin toss. Mispricing does happen and only someone who is very close to the sport is likely to know all the characteristics of who will win a certain event, in-play betting does have a lot more potential to disrupt the odds and give an individual an advantage.

Similarly with Real Madrid - in all the Champions League games (in the playoffs) it was underestimated. But this happens quite rarely - in my opinion it is better to look for underrated games in live bets. Today I watched a few tennis games and odds looked like a seesaw. As a result, I made a bet with a coefficient of 1.8, although before the game the tennis player was rated as 1.2.

I rarely do live betting and those numbers lower than x1.50 is not a good score in my opinion. But if I do like the game, then I can add it in a parlay to boost the odds. Then, what I don't like more is when a gambling sites keeps on rejecting the bet while it's live, you keep on repeating it trying to register your bet and then suddenly the score changed.
So I'd rather do my analysis pre game then put my bets early. I would enjoy it more than thinking about betting during live games.

It's a discussion as old as the sports gambling itself. To simplify most people ask the same question: should I bet on the team with high odds and very low payout or the opposite.
If you keep betting on the favored team and you place 10 bets you may find that even though you won all 10 you are just 10% up on your money and just 1 loss would completely wipe you out. If you keep betting on the underdogs and losing 9/10 bets you may find that even after winning just 1 out of 10 you are also up 10% total and just one more win would put you at 50% so what's next? bet on the winner again and get a few cents on the dollar or go for the underdog with the potential of doubling your money.

I can't tell you which one is better. Some people like this strategy, some like the other one.

I would look at their game history.

And see how consistently they win sets 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. And by how many points.

Then I would look at their opponent's game history and check for the same stats.

How strong both players were in the 2nd set. Would determine whether it was value enough to pursue.

1.25 bets need to be hit with around 80% accuracy to break even. You can lose 1 in 5 bets at 1.25 odds and break even.

I will speak from my own experience:

Until some time when I watched a soccer game, it was normal for a team to be winning by 2 - 0 and the odd was at @1.12 I thought: "if I bet and guaranteed victory" but to my shock and that when I reached 72 minutes the team that was losing the game managed to draw and win the game, it was something shocking. so I thought: " I'm going to start placing bets with odds of @1.50 and I could even win some games, but I only had to lose 2 games for all my victories to become useless, so I changed to odds of @2.00 and realized the following: a bet value is one in which the person knows that if he wins his effort to keep doing analysis it will be rewarded, and the person will be in profit in the long run

Sports is so unpredictable - anything can happen at any moment - a winning match can be turned into a losing innings.
But if I talk about my experience - I am an absolute loser in sport bet. And now I don't make these sports bet because I know I am gonna lose anyways.

Everyone has gone through this experience - "guaranteed" bets are the most frustrating since you win little and a bad outcome ruins the profits from a range of bets you've painstakingly accumulated before. Now I also choose big odds plus I try to bet if the favorite is in a losing position - in the end he is still the favorite, but the odds of him winning become attractive.

Today, Djokovic lost two sets, but after he began to lead in the third set, he became the favorite according to bookmakers. After he won the third set he became the clear favorite. In my opinion betting on his opponent was a value bet (despite the fact that Djokovic won in the end) because Djokovic, in a clearly worse situation, was quoted as a favorite only because of his name, but the chances that he would lose were more than real. I have noticed that value betting often occurs where the big names are involved, as this significantly distorts the objective picture.

Names supersedes the results in a live event when there is still time. It's just somehow bookmakers have managed to scare off bettors from taking chances that comes up in the game until it eludes them due to time. Even at that, its quite risky too as in competitive events, so long as there is time, there is the possibility of a come back. You can imagine the results of the 2nd leg of the UCL semi finals between Real Madrid and Manchester City. Where R. Marhez managed to extend the aggregate to a 2 goals upto the 90th minute. I guess if you to pick a bet a that point you would go for Manchester City and that's for sure supposed to be a valued bet andbyet somehow, Real Madrid still did a come back, won and advanced to the finals. Its just the game!

It was crazy how the odds were just hovering around 2.50 for Djokovic to win when he was down 2-0 then Sinner's odds were around 1.60. I agree, if you took Sinner pre-live you could've had some good cashout opportunities when he was up after the second set. The same thing happened on Nadal's match as he was the favorite pre-live then the odds suddenly switched as he went down a set.

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I also want to point out the value bets coming from promotions as certain bookies would convert your losing ticket as a win given that the team you picked meets certain conditions.

Odds 1.25 on Djokovic is a value bet as most of the time he only has odds below that for the prematch.
If you are a typical bettor who diligently betting in live bet, it is possible to get a value bet especially if the seed is in a behind position, but I think it will be quite stressful if you continue to wait for the value bet in a live bet because it will not always appears.

If the odds are low but it looks like a sure win then parlay it. That is what I do when I am having a difficult time deciding if it's worth the bet.
Sometimes I play different sports that I do not know and look for low odds just to add in a long parlay and maximize the profits.
In regards, if it's a value bet, no if you risking a large amount of money. Imagine pouring $1000 in one bet and all you can win is $100 while if a sudden unexpected thing happens you will lose 10 fold of the winning bet.
I like risks, but this is not the type that I want. Most of the time going for underdogs with lesser bets but high winnings.

The odd looks small to risk in the game of tennis.  Djokovic may not be at his best on the night while you have relied on him to win, anything can happen to turn around the performance of the champion that has low bet on. Tennis is an individual game where just an individual is expected to take his fate by his hand and not a team game that there are reserves to support a weaker or injured player.

That point, in terms of valuing the potential loss against your potential wins, experienced gamblers are good in weighting in this kind of opportunities, higher chance of winning with a small amount of profits, personally I'm not into this kind of bet I agree and support you
when doing a parlay if I feel that there's a good chance of winning.

Combining multiple bets can give you much better odd, though it's always depends on how you categorized your pick,

value bets depends from how you fully understand the game and how good you think you are in choosing games to bet.

I thought about these options and came to the conclusion that this is not a profitable move. It turns out that you take the (guaranteed) winnings but it is less than if things continue to go the way they are going. It is better to wait until the end of the event and take the winnings in full. In my opinion, even taking into account the fact that sometimes there will be comebacks, this will be a more profitable strategy.

The odd may be small when you are betting in tennis or any other live bet but there is a higher possibility of the player with a smaller odd to come back from behind to win even when the player is losing. In the case of Djokovic that you mentioned, if the odds are in his favor for him to win if he is not at his best once it is a live bet the odds of his opponent will start dropping instead of increasing, or the odd of Djokovic will be increased.  Live betting Odds are given based on calculated potential capabilities or form of the team or player in a particular game. In the case of injury or weakness of the player with the smaller odd in tennis, the odds will be changed automatically especially when the player with the bigger odds is playing better or winning.

That's where the value of the heavy favorites comes into action, instead of taking them pre-live at 1.1 or something, you'd go for them whenever they go down (through live betting). The only annoying part is that looking for value bets takes a lot of time and patience since you have to wait for the opportunity but it's worth it if you're down to rely on big favorites.

I agree in the long run it's not best to use the cashout option on most of your bets since it'll reduce your profits by a lot but IMO it doesn't hurt to use the cashout option once in a while.

You are right, things when it comes to Parlay are very diverse, I think that at a time it can get out of control, sometimes when you have no idea how you can make a bet because you do not know the sport well it is a risk that sometimes some players are taken lightly, in my case I am much more careful when making bets of that style, at least I would read a little and document myself to be able to have a bet a little safer, some do not stop him or not They give importance to them, but I think that when making sports bets, everything should not be left to chance, because for me, making sports bets is the closest thing to what I think of trading, where good information and dedication, study, can be rewarded.

For me in this kind of game I don't think that I trust or believe in anyone especially this tennis kind of game is only when you are determined to win is when two become successful on it but predicting according to their match and they want yours I have tennis game is not like that it's not all about you are perfection it's all about the luck which is involved. Sometimes I does not predict any game but I believe it not feeling well that my prediction I focus on  can feel me but hope that it's a suggestion or luck.

If you delve into it enough, you can find very vague value bets. But the problem is that of course the bookmakers are also keeping an eye on that, so if you have found a value bet or get information about it, you have to act extremely quickly and skillfully. I have also read a lot that certain value bets are not paid out by betting sites and then the bets are cancelled. And let's face it, a value bet is not a sure bet and you could lose it as well. Or you have to place a counter bet with another bookmaker. There are some pro players who win a lot of money with this.

Make sense, just like with trading, when you have good details about certain investment, you can have better opportunities to earn. More on your deeper study and following how the market works with the asset and how the developers are doing their part to get more engage investors to support the project,

same deal with sports betting, you can base your pick with the performances of the team or players that you are eyeing to bet, with good knowledge with the game you know how to select and how to sort which games you have the most chance of winning.

The hallmark of a value bet is not its size at all. Taking your example of betting $1,000 to win $100, it can be a value bet if there is a guarantee that the bet will win more than 10 times out of 11 tries. Calculate for yourself - let's say on average this bet wins with a frequency of 14 out of 15 attempts. This means that on average you will receive 14x100-1000=400 dollars in 15 attempts. So this bet is a value bet.

Yes, it is as I say, the opposite case is very difficult to do because gambling in trading is a bet totally on luck, when we make bets in gfambling we are letting ourselves be carried away by the world of randomness and we fall into another value that is to leave everything to "luck", because patterns and certain routine plays tend to fail more likely, if we take into account that sports bets are or have more chances of winning, the answer is yes, because there are people who hire experts who Do the corresponding expert opinion on your players, in football, baske, of course, an assessment of that style without being with those players, it would be something very subjective, but it would still contribute a certain value when deciding on a bet.

Do you think that there are some independent expert teams that can be stronger than the odds providers that all bookmakers use? I am sure that this is unrealistic if we are talking about major competitions. Maybe it works for niche competitions and for the level of very low leagues, but it seems to me that if a player makes big bets on such competitions (otherwise he will not be able to recoup the work of experts), then this will cause a lot of questions from bookmakers.

Yeah, but the problem in parlay is the risk as well, you can have multiple bets, but it will be completely destroyed when one of value bets loses. And the odds are not going to be high, it won't even go 1.50 if you have like 1.10 or lower multiple bets.

So it's really hard to bet on this so called value bets, yeah chances are very high, but there are chances that they might still be upset in the end. Unless everything really falls into it, multiple bets all winning whether the odds are very high or very attractive.

I have been following such bets in tennis especially in the odd 1.10 which is considered a "guaranteed" win from many gamblers.I have been experimenting with this odd with of course much lower values,just to see if the odd is really a winning one or not.I have been putting 1 dollars bet on single such games in tennis and out of 10 times only 7 times were won,it means that there is a high risk of losing money by using this method and if it worked for real then most people would not need a job,they would just keep betting on such events.There is no value and no safe bet in sport betting.

I have always thought of that type of betting, where everyone is sure to win, they put large amounts of money to make it something profitable in terms of their personal situation, and particularly when one makes a not-so-big bet, that is, not to lose so much money and if the result is given, it is like winning a lottery, of course the people who do this do not take risks, because they know very well that some are very guided by statistics, for me this will change a lot when they go to seek new horizons in the world Because the World Cup will undoubtedly bring very good surprises for me, and I could say that the first meeting could be a surprise.

For me, a bet where I am getting decent returns on a bet that is most probably about to win would be a value bet.
For example if I am placing a bet where I know that I would most probably win this bet and if the returns are over 1.5x times then I would consider it as a value bet.
The chances of winning the bet should be at least over 85% in this case. I have played such bets few times and won in most of the cases.

Something unexpected might happen from the first meeting a surprise where a risk takers can win a huge amount of profits if top caliber team got upset by an underdog squad, just like what you have said it's a different venue and a full of surprises but it's also a good place for every gambler who loves to watch and enjoy the game.


The odd is decent enough if you can repeat it over and over. You can earn huge with your initial capital. Though there's no assurance that you do it in every bet that you made, the chance to lose is still there even if you think the percentage of your chance is over 85%, there's still something that will ruined your pick and lead you to lose your money.

If that is your definition of a value bet without looking at the current news on the teams that are participating then you're screwed in the long run.

There are tons of favorites in sportsbetting that ended up losing to a relatively weaker team just because a key player is not playing. Just the NBA for example. A lot of us know that the Golden State Warriors are capable of defeating any teams in the league if they are complete even though they are not well-rested. If for example one of their key players cannot attend, their odds of winning the match is still the same in most cases. When matched with a relatively weaker team but with complete players, this team can still crumble, as their rotations are not the same compared to when they're complete.

It's important to look at the current news on the teams rather than the numbers and odds given by the bookies alone. This makes your bet more valuable as you know some of the things that could potentially ruin your bet.

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

Could you express this definition in numbers? You can repeat a bet with odds of 1.01 a huge number of times, but at the same time it remains unprofitable if the casino/bookmaker has an advantage. As for subjective assessments of the probability of outcomes, they are important, but at a distance, given that the better sometimes makes mistakes, sometimes the casino makes mistakes, they lose their meaning.
By the way, you can repeat bets again and again, even with high odds if you use a small percentage of the deposit to bet. If you go all-in all the time, you will lose your deposit at any odds.

From there, the analysis we do will determine the selection of the team that has the opportunity to win in that match. Maybe when doing analysis, we can see how the history of the team we are analyzing is so we can know whether the team deserves to be chosen or whether we have to look for another team with a bigger chance of winning. However, we also have to predict a reversal of a team that looks unseeded in one match because it could even surprise us and beat the team we previously chose. It's really difficult if we don't know how to choose a good team.

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate

prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win

your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case

things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning

picks.

What you say is true because having enough experience can improve our analysis of the player or team we want to choose. Indeed, there is no precise or accurate prediction but at least we can choose a player or team with more power than the opposing team. Thus, our winning percentage can be quite high and there is a possibility that we can win some money. And as long as we can adapt to the moment's circumstances, we can certainly know when we can bet again or when to pause. But from all that, we must also know that our analysis is not always able to give results for us and this is where we have to admit that we still need to learn more.

Sometime it is good to take common risk on bets and this cam be a whopping opportunities to win from just taking the hardest risk that might look too obvious to other gamblers. I have prepared my own list of football games that made many of my friends to laugh and ponder why on Earth I chose those games because it was clear them that I could never smell any winnings but I stood my ground and went ahead to play the bets. It was very shocking to them that everything I bet on had clear winnings which looks like a magic them. Sometimes betting on the odd games can bring fortune and luck to us.

This is indeed possible, but of course, it has its risks. Value bets are tricky because no one knows for sure if the bet is overestimated or underestimated which could lead you to losing end. Sports betting live could be one of the options someone would look into if they want to check the status of the odds first before making a bet. To some people this works good enough to predict the right outcome and win a few bucks. But to some it is tricky and risky because sudden turn of events make them doubt.

You are lucky and skilled enough to make consecutive 8 wins over a free competition. If someone has this kind of skills, definitely that person would generate profit over time. But of course, to acquire that would be handful as well and luck will also play a great part.

before depositing ? we must understand that we will gamble to "Try Winning" but there is no assurance that this will happen so the best mind set is to accept the fact that you are already loss even before starting to gamble.
with this mentality you will learn how to control your desire and enjoy the game without being frustrated or feeling a loser along the process.
we are playing/betting because we wanted too and not to completely win.

I think it’s all completely subjective and situationally based. I will sometimes bet like this for NFL football. You certainly can shave a few points off if you’re absolutely confident in the team still winning even if they gone down by a little or even a decent amount. I normally like placing my bets ahead of time, but I will do it in game and normally will throw down extra on one of the bets I’ve already made.

In my country betting rates are heavily regulated by state so its hard to see some team getting more than 1.05 or 1.10 odds against very weak team. Even though I think many value bets come through such games when stronger one has many injured players (I am talking about football here) so 1.25 odd is not that bad still. On contrary I also experienced losing so called guarenteed bets (which I added to cover my losses). So value bet is only value after you hit with it.

That's a good point. Some bookies allow you to bet on different lines on some events that are a few points up or down from the main line. This allows bettors to maximize the odds on their bets to get more value off of it. I myself am doing this sometimes if I have done a thorough research on the game that I'll bet on. Sometimes that few points on the odds is helpful if you want to stack your profits fast.

I used some in-play matches in football to win. Assuming that match between club A and B have 1.1 and 7 odds for team A and B respectively. I can still wait for the match to start and bet during in-play, the more the club A has not scored as the match goes on, the odd for Club A to win will gradually be increasing. There are some times I wait for 10 to 15 minutes after the match has started before I place bet on it with a bigger odd.

Anything below 1.1 odds, I do not go for. Even I only go for 1.1 odd not often at all, the last I could remember was one of the Tottenham home match this season which I went for win or draw, It could take weeks or few months before I can go for such low odd again. But 1.25 odd is not bad at all, but still looking small. My main preference is 1.5 odd and above.

I think to choose a powerful team is not that hard because we can simply make a research online to see their strengths and weakness. We can watch their past games and so on but we should not limit our picking only in the strong team because sometimes those who we think are weak are the ones who will end up as a victor.

Knowing when to pause or stop usually occurs when we won or when we busted our balances because continuing can make us lose what we won and we can lose more further if ever we already lose earlier. We need to wait a day or two before we can bet again so that we are sure that our luck is on a full bar again.

Analysis can be done before or after depositing as long as the match hasn't started yet, that is for us to have a good amount of time to prepare because when we are rushing, sh!t can mostly happen. In gambling, each of us has a different preference. Some plays to try to win a profit while the other will play only to relieve stress and to pass the time. Gambling also has two kinds, one is luck based and the other is skill based.

Sports betting is an example of skill based game. As long as you have a good experience then you have a higher chance to win a profit although yeah, acceptance must be always there because we can also experience a bad luck sometimes.

Which is your country precisely? You seem to be a turkish speaking man from what I've read in your previous posts... But almost all casinos have games and tables dedicated to turkish speaking people, and they seem to try to attract them so I'm surprised when you say it's heavily regulated in your country. I was thinking the opposite precisely. Anyway, if you are looking for good odds it's not difficult to find a crypto sportsbook to bet there, your country doesn't seem to be a country banned by usual offshore gambling licenses.

well you are correct , but why not search and learn first before even starting to deposit? because if you find nothing good to bet in sports then you can divert your money in gambling first in card or some luck based gambling , if you can take it right.
not just experience but also understand about the game, the team/players and the timing of when to bet since it depends on which are they opposing also.

That is true but we also have to think that it is not always a strong team that can keep winning against a weak team because there are times when a strong team underestimates a weak team so that they will lose the opportunity to win it. But at least, researching the history of their matches can help us choose a team with better statistics than other teams.

And yes, we have to know when to stop to avoid a big loss so that it doesn't cost us big money. And the last thing is to rest, like you said to reduce the tension after that bet so we can analyze well for the next match.

Here in us it is very regulated by the government, but I don't think online betting in this country has a limited odds. I am not sure but maybe we're the same from the other countries, I've seen some online cockpit with the same odds, I am not familiar with sportsbook so correct me if I'm wrong with this one.

I've bet on so many matches that ended with a goal in added time or it come down to the penalties or one team was losing and then it scored twice in 10 minutes...
You can never be sure of your bets unless it's an MMA fight of an experienced champion with some big guy that came from weightlifting with no fighting experience or like they put McGregor vs Mayweather. These things where you can be somewhat sure are rare though.

You said it right, underdog sometimes disappoint heavy favorite. It's not new to gambling where upset happened and it's in all the sports, we can't always assume that the weak team will lose or the weak fighter or player will lose surely, there are times that a bad day happen with the players / teams /fighters and it will result to unexpected losses.

You can analyze the game and expect that your prediction was right, but the assurance, no one can tell unless you are betting with fixed matches, which is another topic to discuss, but with fair games, the outcome can be conclude after the game.

The underdog sometimes is more determined to win and we could see it in some matches where the underdog performed better. That's the reason why we shouldn't underestimate the least favorite player because anything could happen in the middle of the game. If a player has a huge number of odds it doesn't mean that he will win the match. We should always expect the unexpected.

Unfortunately what you are talking about doesn't exist, when the outcome has more than 99% chances to happen, bookmakers don't offer markets to bet on it or with odds of @1.00 only. It means you won't get any winnings by betting on it. A value bet is when you have more chances to win than what odds are saying. Then even odds of @2.00 could be a value bet. If you have 60% chances to win for example, a 1:1 reward is a good opportunity within value.

Besides that, we have also seen teams that are not favorites who can excel from a strong team because they can rise at the right time when a strong team underestimates the strength of a weak team. And that analysis many people miss because they never predict if a weak team can't beat a strong team. This happens in many games and surprises those who choose a weak team.

But with analysis, at least we can see how far the estimated strength of each team is so that we can choose the team that we think can win later. And if we're undecided with both teams, it's probably best that we don't have to bet just yet.

There are some times the underdog will not perform better but scored and finally able to defend the goal scored. There are sometimes the underdog would also perform better. This is one of the reasons I do not like to bet before a match is about to start or already started, because I would like the know the players that are playing.

I remember some years ago that I chose Juventus to win over Palmar that was relegating, 3 Juventus key players did not play because they were preparing for Champions League final, semi final or quarter final (I do not remember vividly, but it is among the three). Palmar won the match.

But aside that, even when strong teams are playing well and strong, they may meet an underdog in a way that the underdog would finally win the strong club. It is a competition, the stronger club has more chances to win, but there are still little chances that the underdog may win too, which may be what might happen.

It added up and that kind of determination push their talent and skill to exceed from their limits, in a fair and square game what I mean if there's no manipulation or game fixing the weak or underdog use that position to prove that they are worth to support, and there are many upset just like what we both mentioned, it's everywhere and no specific sports.

As long as you do your research and you are following paths or strategy in picking the favorite, the chance of winning is good.

Upset should always be on your plan in case you suffer from defeat. You need to move forward. Good mindset gives you a better overview on your next try.

The only time that I've seen these odds are during live bets. The lowest that I've saw on sportsbooks are 1.12, and if you see that event you automatically check the matchup and see if there is a potential for an upset. You don't ignore these low odds at all, you need to check whether the opponent has the capability to go against the favorite. I've bet on a lot of heavy underdogs in Dota 2 a few years back and made quite a lot of skins from that alone. Or, you have to find lines wherein you can squeeze every single point you can in order to convert it to a more profitable bet.

And after we do the research to choose the team, we only know how much to bet and will not cross that line because we will risk losing later. In that research, we try to find the right team for us to choose so that the chance of winning will be there.

And maybe continuing to do research and trying to choose the team will increase our experience so that in the future, we will have no difficulty choosing each team because we already have an idea choose the team. But don't forget that in every game, there will be changes so we have to be able to analyze it properly.

You can expect anything, the problem is how to value bet. Yesterday, when Juventus were losing 0-2, the odds of Juventus winning at the beginning of the second half were only 8.4, but then by the end of the game they rose to 80. Was it right in this situation to bet on Juventus? After all, that goal could have been counted. It seems to me that given how often the situation reverses in stoppage time, betting on odds of 80-100 at the end of the game makes sense.

Prediction of bet is not something you easily get accurately through live, but some people do get but not as many we thought of. Everything about betting prediction it's depend on individual luck but a situation of taking it as necessity it's not really fine through what I'm seeing now. Because live bet i dont remember when last i have seen people giving testimony of good work or not. That's what exactly I'm emphasising on.

It's hard to guess, bookies worked based on algorithm, so it's hard to outsmart them actually.

I had some instances in the past where the favorite team is -5.5 on the pregame, but when they are down big, they have a +10.5 line in live betting, I took it and in the end I still regret because I lose. There's no opportunity with that, bookies knows that the public will take it but in reality it's just a bait.

This is why it is so difficult to become a successful sports bettor, when it comes to team sports there are so many variables that it is almost impossible to make the right call no matter how hard you study the game, after all in a soccer match you have 11 players by each team, so you have at minimum 22 variables and that is without even taking into account substitutions.

In contrast when it comes to sports which are played by a single individual then it becomes slightly easier to predict what it may happen, but I suppose casinos take this into account and protect themselves by increasing their house edge.

A good practices that will allow us to enhance our analysis, everything should always be according to how we plan it and not to exceed from our targets, value bets are available, it just needed to sort all the potentials. Never to forget to do deeper research. It really helps to increase your chance of winning your pick.

Gamblers who have a better money management skills also have an extra edge when dividing their balance, unlike with an ordinary gambler who randomly place bets, experience gamblers most of the time keep looking for value bets, even they will win small odd they are okay with it.

There are lots of strategy and system that those gamblers are following and using when betting, they are betting according to how they see believe they will going to win.

There are some player already decided where did they bet and the game itself allowing their users to make a change bet before the match starts like most likely is with the 10 mins before the game starts by that some of the people make a manipulation with the odds because some of them trick other players who just always makes an odd to the higher chance of winning the game but instead the underdog wins the game. Also sports betting must need to have a good understand with the team and the players gameplay to get a chance to where to bet as a safe thing to do.

Always depends on how the player or the team will perform. I understand that bookies use algorithms which are based on a system
that they've used, it's tough to exploit that system and for sure it is their advantage.

That kind of example of yours is the reality that happened real time. Gamblers most of the time got trapped with how bookies provide the
odds, especially with heavy favorite.

Even you're done with your deep research, and you anticipate that you have a good advantage, it's still ending up losing your bet.

We real gambler actually knew things such that so either find your luck ? or find your losses because the money you risk is the amount that supposed to lose so best to check it out or accept the consequences .
expect losses so you wont be frustrated , gambling is somewhere we must understand that losing is a simple part of the system and winning is the hardest one.

Tennis is one of the games I will never bet with my money, the chance of winning is too low and it is not about teamwork that you can be betting on the form of most members of the team. Many players are disappointing, especially the highly rated ones. If you check the table of the world's tennis players (both male and female), you would realize that the world ranking is changing so fast. So, anything can happen. To make the matter more surprising, it is the youngsters that are taking the lead now, the number in the world ranking (male) is 19 years old. This is last week's ranking.

What I know is that in tennis, there are modes in which the game is being played by 4 people. 2 on one side and 2 on the other but I think it's more easier to predict when the game is only played by 2 people because they will mostly rely on their own ability. If they are skillful enough then they can win, while if they work with a team or another player, some of the members may not really be doing well which can affect the overall performance of the team.

If you think your winning chance in tennis is low, that means your knowledge in regards to the players/game is also low but this can always be improved if you watch more tennis games.

Value bets and arbitrage bets make a world of difference. And then with value bets we also have different types of value bets. When is something a true value bet? I think you're going to go back to an arbitrage bet anyway, because the odds are changing drastically. There are players who make a lot of money with value bets, but you can also count on your account being closed quickly with a bookmaker. Value betting is actually consciously looking for errors in the API. I think bookmakers should be tougher on this if a player is always doing this.

Well, undoubtedly we have to keep in mind that every time we make a bet, we are having a certain percentage of guarantee that what we are saying will happen, but the highest percentage is due to luck and randomness, the downside of this is that when a person believes that he is on a roll, he is capable of betting a large amount of money causing his money to drop drastically and this is not good, because anyone can be decaptilized in hours, and this is not what is sought, we all want to win when we bet, but we must be aware of accepting everything that comes if we lose, normally a person always thinks only of winning, never thinks of the consequences of losing and if he does, it is very fast.

You will be banned or closed account if you abuse the system using value bets this is why you need to be aware of the consequences and the ability to change the course of your gambling activities .

You can use other strategy instead of using one because this will hinder your account from being closed by the bookmakers .

I do not use value betting instead I focus in my direct betting towards which team or fighter I am going to choose and risk my funds.

I prefer football, but people also have different preferences. I do not like going for lawn tennis, but I prefer its in-play. To me, I see sport as sport, people even lose very well in football. I think it depends on preferences, some people have fun in the process of betting, especially those that stake just very small amount of money on each bet.

You only want to divert away from what the OP is talking about. A value bet is when you choose a team or a player with the odd having more probability of winning. If a player have 1.25 odds and have very high probability of winning, that is a value bet. But there are just some low odds that does not worth going for.

But if you are going to look at the last 10 years, in the men's side, we have the big 3 or big 4. But they have grown old already, Federer is on the brink of retirement, while Murray wasn't the same after his injuries. Only Nadal and Djokovic is still playing, but Nadal was ousted and Djokovic didn't play in the US Open because of vaccination issues. As far as Alcaraz being the number 1, he deserved it. But it doesn't mean it's not a good sport to bet to or not able to find value bets, just saying.

Well said in analysing the real scenarios when a bettor thinks that he got an upper edge when placing his bets, I personally understand because in each time I place my bet I always believe that it is the winning bet, most of the time the odds is lower it's between 1.10- 1.50
siding my trust to a favorite and also done doing my research, since I'm mostly betting with our local basketball league where I do have good insight with the teams that I'm supporting.

But I'm guilty of the fact that I'm not ready to accept whenever I lose my bet, always thinking that the game was fixed, though the amount that I used is just a small amount.

Good enough to think that I only spend it to please my desire of enjoyment.

What's the point of betting if you don't think it's profitable (is value bet)? And I don't understand why betters should be afraid of a ban for value betting - because if the bookmaker misjudged the odds, it's his problem, not the better's. In this case, it turns out that the bookmaker bans everyone who does not lose - isn't this a scam?

Yes ofcourse, as long as there is even 0.01% chance of losing we can't be sure of winning the game.
Even the slightest possibility could occur if we don't have a really good luck.
But having said that, if we do have a good luck then chances are higher for us to win the bet.
Also, it's kinda logical to place a bet on the winning team rather than randomly picking one out.

The 0.01% chance is not a guarantee for us to win some money but we still play and try our luck. But indeed, the slightest possibility can make us win in gambling and this is apparently what makes many people return to gambling. By reasoning that we have the smallest chance, we can continue to play and not think that our chances are not really big and the chance to lose is behind us. And when we see our chances of winning are getting bigger, we will place bigger bets because we think we will win a lot of money later.

These are more reasons why betting on tennis is not my thing, for now, I will rather use my money on better things. And it is better to bet on the upcoming stars as their blood is still hot for the game. But I see that as a bigger risk at times judging by the way some of the shining ones amongst them later disappoint you and your trust.

And true, Roger Federer has finally hinted at his retirement after the last game, I believe that was due to many injuries in the past. While Serena Williams seems to be a die-hard player, many believed she's gone, but she hinted that she's still playing.

I used to remember the big failure that I made way back, a top caliber team was beat by an underdog, it was only 1.05 odd if I remember it right though not a huge amount of bet but it was a very shocking outcome, unexpected to happen but it indeed happened. So I guess there's nothing that we can say about that possibility and besides, you are in the gambling industry, so expect that losing is also part of this business.

Logically right, why bother to bet randomly if you have good knowledge about the game? You can use that to weight the bet and give your shot an edge.

But again, you need to remember that there's always a chance that you might lose that pick and you need to move forward.

Yes ofcourse, nobody can accurately predict the outcome of an even going to happen in future especially in gambling.
So even if we lose the bet it's still one of the outcomes that had happened and we should know that fact.
Moving on from a loss is definitely a skill that not everyone has. Many people chase the losses and end up losing more.
Moving on from it and planning out your next move is the strategy that everyone should focus on.

There's no such thing as perfect gambling so we can't expect consistent winning because no matter what strategy we may apply, the result will always be unpredictable. For me, chasing our losses will only lead to more losses so accepting failure and moving forward will be the best step that we can do to reach our target profit. Gambling is a challenging and exciting journey if we'll enjoy it.

Adding to that, definitely it's going to give you time to reassess if you know how to move forward, I mean if you have that capabilities, instead of chasing your losses you will evaluate the strategy or the basis that you used to predict your next pick. It also gives you a chance to enhance and improve your system. The more you learn the process, the better you can assess where is your edge from the game that you are involved.

Better to let go when you suffer from losses and not to dwell or regret it will just pull you back and the chance of making more mistakes.



Correct, there's no perfect gambling, you might have more winning pick and be aggressive to bet more than your allocation and the next thing you know, you already lose a lot. Better to know how to control and always take an extra precaution to avoid exceeding from your target balance to use for your gambling.

Indeed. Flawless gambling methods don't exist. We can't continuously win as much as we want and no matter how good we are in gambling because aside from the gambling techniques and strategies, luck also play a role in winning a bet. Adding the fact that the house edge is greater than the RTP, it is wise to assume that after several winnings, eventually, the player will lose too because the algorithm is set in that way so that the casino will profit as well.

I think one of the greatest moves of casino to encourage players to play consecutively is to let them win until they become greedy of the winning prizes and then lower their chances once they hit the certain bracket intended to gradually lower the RTP. In that way, they will be enticed to play because they kept on winning, and will try to bet more to get more. This can be a make or break on the side of the gambler because he can take the profit if he is already satisfied, however, if he is greedy, he'll keep on playing until he runs out of luck that could lead to chasing losses.

Gambling has its benefits if and only if people will utilize it into their advantage. If not, they'll be the one manipulated by it and it could cost so much hassle, money, and time.

A value bet should be you finding a bet at odds that give you the 'edge' over the bookmaker.... and in these days, this is almost impossible. We live in the information Age... where bookmakers have access to several resources to do very accurate predictions to determine the correct odds.  ::)

I see myself as being extremely lucky, if I spot a "value bet" ...once in a month, because most bets are done with odds being very close to the final outcome of the game.  ::)

This was probably easier at the earlier stages of the online gambling industry, but now this is very hard to do manually as odd providers have gotten better at evaluating sports matches all over the world.

However I suppose there are still some areas of opportunity, for example esports are relatively new so since the games are always in the middle of an update and being balanced it will be more difficult for the odd providers to give odds that are as accurate as in traditional sports, and someone with a lot of knowledge on those esports may find some value bets thanks to their expertise.

In the early days of online bookmakers, there were spots where value bets could be found, especially in minority sports, but bookmakers became aware of them and corrected their mistakes. There are still people who claim to make money in the long run but it is extremely difficult.

In this case, there are even still value bets, but not common. I mean going for 1x2.

But going for other betting options, there are always value bet. In fact, I win than lose, but my betting is not frequent and not more than once weekly most of the time as I do not have time to gamble during the weekdays. But that does not mean I am perfect, there are times I lose too, but i still pretty much go for valued bet.

But both of you are not wrong, bookmakers are very perfect now in a way good teams are given lower odds and high teams bigger odds in a way it it is more likely not to favour punters.

Very important to have when you are involved in gambling is to know how to accept. It's true that chasing your losses
can lead you to lose more than what you really intend to use.

There are many stories like this where a gambler is just having some fun and when experience defeat, they are
aggressive to recover back by trying to add more to their bankroll.

It applies even you already done with doing your research and think that value bet will allow you have good
edge but if happen that you lose, it's better to forget about it and move forward.

It is very difficult to try to say everything and have it come out with such precision, that is almost impossible, you would have to have a very good streak to be able to make a good bet and have a corresponding value, if a person who plays the parlaty during years, I have not seen anyone who has hit all the results, it is something almost impossible, for me in these things there should always be a margin of error, if not it is something that would be out of the ordinary, even so if someone has a good streak no I think he makes the perfect game, that is something that anyone can take into account to raise their betting ranking.


What you say is very true, whenever one as a player pursues his losses, what he can do is wait for a bigger defeat, and obviously it is something that should never be followed and most of us did it at some point, even if it was as rookies, The biggest problem is when you face a big loss of Bankroll, because a player can always lose control and start to recover whatever their balance is, some when they try to recover they use the "martingale" strategy a lot and that is a lot worse, because when desperation, pressure and stress are put into context it is something that is the worst combination of emotions.

If you use the local bookmakers of my country, then there are a lot of opportunities to find an arbitrage bet. Local bookmakers often give generous odds. The problem is that just because you win does not mean that you can get your winnings - they are all scammers (or very close to them) and the stories about how they ban players or refuse to pay out money are endless.
Therefore, many naive betters who try arbitrage bets between local bookmakers and the global market then realize that making money here is not at all as easy as they thought.

In cases where there are many losses in a row and the player loses control, if he can get into a moment of anger and stress, some will react aggressively causing everything within their reach to be hit, destroyed, because they don't They accept that they lost a lot of money, that is very common in physical casinos, especially when they start playing and drink alcohol, that is very dangerous, I know of cases that they even have weapons and threaten, but that is something that goes much further .

It is for such a reason that when a person loses and gets closer to the money he was willing to lose, he must stop and not play anymore, I think that is the most mature thing to do.


Well from what you say then it is not advisable that you can make bets with arbitration, where I live they do not make bets of this style, finding value bets in that way is very difficult and if there are, I still do not know how to get to them , but given what you say, it is very likely that they do exist here, but I have not been out there much, I would have to visit some places that I know that bets are made, but more than anything, it is the weekends when they are most active, maybe because of the local soccer tournaments, which is when the gamblers go out the most and go out to drink alcohol and everything, maybe there you can find them.

You have to be careful when it comes to these value bets. There’s usually a reason that a bet looks like it’s gone on sale. Maybe a player got a sudden injury or becomes otherwise unavailable. There could be dozens of reasons why odds can change and if you are always searching for these types of bets then you’ll probably be caught off guard a lot with new information. I tend to think the long shots are a better bet. You have to make sure the reward is worth the risk.