Bitcoin Forum

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWzK8uiWYAEZdmN?format=jpg&name=large
https://twitter.com/StockmoneyL/status/1543832155003969538/photo/1

I saw this chart on Twitter and looks good, it really shows how the cycle goes since 2012.
If we will follow this chart, we are expecting that we will reach around $70,000 - $100,000 by the time of the year 2024 which will gonna have another new all-time high.
And guess what, Bitcoin block halving is on that year too. So for me, I am expecting a market recovery in the year 2023, before the Bitcoin block halving.

Any thoughts?

It’s no different than those S2F charts we have been seeing for over a year or so. Sure it’s possible because it no guarantee.

Remember how everyone said that 200 WMA was great support and would hold and we would bounce off it? Well we are still trading below the 200 WMA and that was also a reliable indicator.

It works until it doesn’t.

Everything works until one day it doesn't. As adaseb mentioned, I posted here in January that Bitcoin is about to touch 200 WMA, and then that will be the bottom.
You know how things went, it's now a resistance as of now for Bitcoin. Also considering the economical conditions of the market, I think the bottom is not in actuality.

Yes I need that $250k ATH 8)

Plus the accumulation line should have three points to get confirmed which we are soon going to find out...

It's actually very different if you pay close attention, the logarithmic scale has been tweaked to fit the support line, as opposed to a support line fitting any traditional linear or log scale. It's some bizarre form of logarithmic, as generally a logarithmic scale to connect these lows is done with a curve (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/), not a straight line. A straight line logarithmic support trend was otherwise broken a long time ago.

Not forgetting the other obvious flaw, it's only really connecting three lows, but the third isn't confirmed by any means. So by connecting two lows together to predict a third is nothing more than a coincidence for now. For sure it'd look good if $17.5K would be the low, you could almost consider it relevant then.

Before? for me the recovery will happen right after the block halving. Well if it happen before then yeah, this could be a super cycle, a theory that has been posted, but not really gain that much attention specially after the S2F model fails.

So if ever we hit $70k-$100k in the next bull run, then there's no super cycle, just the regular 4 year cycle that we are accustomed to.

It is just another StF chart, moving the goal post further. It looks better than the original though, as it acknowledges increasing smaller cycles.

Long-term prediction with what the world may change in the coming years will make it impossible to adopt past data as something that can be the basis for a future price, meaning that the cycles (S2F) have already proven their failure in the past and therefore we cannot put a predictive base on them in the future.

So being 100k, 80k, 70k all the same but it is giving low levels

yeah, that actually a good chart i have same things too. but the difference is why the bitcoin price still not touch the upper level yet why it look like still in the middle but already go down.
https://i.ibb.co/LgBcT2W/btc.png (https://ibb.co/09160dS)

Another chart that tries to make sense of this bear market in a positive way. There are a lot of this kind of chart on Twitter. It is probably to somehow relieve the pressure and fear or even panic of a lot of Bitcoin fans.

This chart might prove to be true. But it's nothing special really. It is expected. It cannot be winter forever. Sooner or later, this bear season will pass and the bull season will come in. It's the normal cycle. And if we talk of 2024, it is next to impossible that Bitcoin hasn't recovered yet by that time.

The clue is in the legend to be fair; price didn't reach maximum bubble territory, which despite happening on previous occasions, isn't a guarantee. Apparently we just got to FOMO, not even bubble territory "sell", which out of all the things I'm not of fan of about this chart - particularly the upper band that should be more regressive and not parallel to the lower band - is probably about accurate imo.


Think you explained it better than I did earlier, it's simply just a way to show that there are bear & bull markets, two ends of the same cycle. One thing I have noticed that I'm not convinced by is the idea that sub $30K is accumulation, but somehow sub $6K in 2018 wasn't accumulation, only around $4K. Kind of irrelevant maybe, but just an example of how the 2018 low apparently wasn't the lowest price for accumulation.

All these graphs are the same. And each time, the model is subjected to changes. For example the S2F model was broken in March 2020, which Plan B itself wrote about, but then it miraculously worked again. These models show well bitcoin's past and that it has been in an uptrend for more than 10 years, but no more. If it falls to 10k for example, the model will change, but will still show a similar picture.