Bitcoin Forum

"Analytics platform CryptoQuant believes that the indicators say yes.
The feared ""crypto miner capitulation event"" which was supposed to signal the bottom, has supposedly already happened if you choose to believe the analysts.

CryptoQuant 
“The event” refers to a time when mining becomes unsustainable or when the profitability is significantly limited, which would force miners to effectively give up trying and sell the coins they've earned via mining.

But just a handful of miners selling some of their earnings is nothing inherently bad – they still have to pay for expenses and constantly upgrade their hardware, and unlike your favorite bootleg monkey NFT collection, the floor of a trillion-dollar market is hardly going to be affected by this.

However, if the profitability for the miners is limited, this can become a destructive vicious cycle of major selloffs and panic, and if you decide to look at the historical events of capitulation, you might get worried.
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There are many analysts that say bitcoin had capulated when its price was $30000. But what happened? The price of bitcoin falled again above $30000 to almost $17000 before it increased above $20000 again. But likely that bitcoin price will still decrease further again before it will increase.

Analysts are of different saying, some said bitcoin will fall below $10000, some analysts says that bitcoin will not fall below $140000, some are now saying capitulate has been around $20000.

Do not believe analysts. You can use DCA to simply invest.

I think we won’t know if crypto has capitulated for a few more months. If we trade sideways till the end of the year then I would say that we bottomed last month.

However there is still a lot of uncertainly such as the large CPI we have been getting. If we keep getting High inflation numbers then fed might hike again and much higher percentages. If that happens we might go lower.

As long as countries continue to experience the economic crisis then there is a possibility that crypto will go down even more. We just entered the bear season and I don't believe that crypto has already capitulated. I think we are just in denial phase right now because there are still optimism left to some people. Once the market crash very fast that it causes panic even to diamond hands, then it could spark the capitulation.

Analysts are saying different things because indicators are suggesting different things. Many indicators suggest price has already capitulated at $20K, others indicate that price has only begun capitulating, some even indicate that price has yet to capitulate. It's not about distrusting analysts, it's about not relying on a single indicator or analyst to suggest one scenario or another, when there isn't confluence between them.

Indicators only provide indications, not guarantees. This is the main mistake people make when listening to analysts who use different indicators. One thing that is certain is this is very different to 2018 capitulation when most indicators were suggesting that capitulation had occurred, so there was considerable confluence between different indicators. Without confluence, there isn't much confirmation.

The only thing that is more or less certain is around $12K most capitulation based indicators would be suggesting that capitulation has occurred, so there would finally be more confluence.

Many are giving up based on the news that has come out recently and this is not only happening to the miners but also the exchanges. And I think it will increase even more in the future as the bear season continues to stretch. They are no longer able to sustain those that should be kept in good condition perhaps due to the intensification of the machinery.

If the maintenance and the sustainability of resources are no longer possible and also due to the decrease or limitation of the recoverable return, there is probably no other outcome but capitulation.

I reckon if someone asks if crypto has capitulated, this might imply that it has not yet capitulated. There are still many people who are not living in reality and has not considered that it is very much possible that bitcoin can go -40% lower from where the price is presently. Everyone is still buying the dip when it is much more advisable to hold dollars or stablecoins during the bear market.

However hehehehe, if we did not have a blow off top, there might not have a capitulation?

Too early to say, I mean we haven't even completed this year, or at least the bear market.

Personally, I think we haven't reach the final capitulation yet, maybe the worst has yet to come. Perhaps the price could down to the levels of $10k-$15k, or even lower for those who wanted to buy cheap BTC again.

So it's better to prepare ourselves next year to see this kind of price, just to be sure so that there will be no disappointment and surprises to all of us.

Bitcoin capitulated even with a price of $20,000 right now? Really? It's funny how people are entertaining all kinds of imaginations. Bitcoin didn't capitulate when its price was just $3,000 after reaching $20,000 in 2017. So why would it capitulate now?

Mining unsustainable with Bitcoin at $20,000? Mining was thriving just a couple of years ago when Bitcoin was even lower than $10,000. So why would it suddenly become unsustainable when the price even doubled?

In my opinion there are no words of giving up in the crypto industry, only positive thinking people are successful in crypto, I have seen crypto developments in the past few years, beyond words and predictions that is what happened.

You said today A could come out tomorrow C, that's crypto just like puzzles and lotteries, be patient, that's the attitude of a lucky person, panic destruction for him.

A lot of things are going on around the world, there is still the war and then inflation every where. Big bitcoin mining companies is also suffering in this worsening condition, and they might have been force to sell just to break even in their business. And with that said, I don't think we have seen the bottom, it will be a vicious cycle of selling and then buying. So a lot of uncertainties that it's better to just not panic if we see the price going down very hard in this bear market.

Just my take on the situation… If you have to ask whether or not crypto has capitulated then my thinking is that it hasn’t. My guess is that when capitulation does happen, it will be obvious and there will be nobody left wondering whether or not capitulation occurred. Very likely this event will happen in the next ~3 months. Be prepared.

I find the most obvious capitulation type event for BTC comes with a flat bottom.   Some people in markets (too expectant of BTC to resemble every other asset) expect a V style flash down and back up again but I dont as easily recognize that as occurring with BTC, people do get a little crushed.  They forgot this asset is volatile the price has no guarantee fast up and fast down, this action is on the road map but people either forgot or dont want to remember its a route with sharp turns you must be ready to handle that.
   Typically I expect at least 6 months of sedate markets, sleeping lions :P

Some of them have already started selling, but this is not the end, the price of bitcoin is still good so far to continue mining, but if the price of bitcoin continues to decline, we may reach the point where miners are forced to leave mining because this has become very expensive and the profits are not enough to cover the expenses, Some companies will stop mining and others will continue because the cost of mining varies from one company to another and from one country to another according to the cost of electrical energy and maintenance, but what will happen when some companies stop? The mining difficulty will decrease due to the decrease in the number of miners and the decrease in the total hash of the network, and this will allow the remaining miners to obtain additional profits and continue mining due to the decrease in the mining difficulty.

The collapse of the Coin Prices in Crypto now does not indicate that this is the end of everything, if you are a person who has long joined here, then the 2017 phase until now is a reference, where in those years Crypto also experienced a setback from every coin that exists .

The miners are required to have concerns, to maintain the mining results they do, that means if they mining the coins that do not have the power to survive, of course now will experience extraordinary panic, but if they do that on a stable and stable coin and Strong, so the steps to wait are only the priority that needs to be done, learn from 2017 to 2021

There was a news here last time that tells miners are selling their coins and I think that affected the market by just a little but afterwards the price recovered again. It was not the end obviously and the only reason why they sell some of their coins is because they need money to upgrade their equipment and also to pay the bill so that they can't continue on this business that they choose.

Miners can still do something like using other sources of energy like solar, wind, heat, etc... so that they can save some money. Once the situation returns to normal or when the price starts to pump, that was the time to up their game again.

Or it could happen next year, but the point being, we haven't reach capitulation yet, others might have to disagree, but if you look at the historical logs, capitulation happens a year after the start of the bear market. So for me, most likely it will be early next year and then recover some, but the market will continue to be a long and hard grind. Of course the only saving grace is the halving, but it will happen in 2024. So yeah, just be prepared for everything that the market will give us in the long bearish cycle.

Yes, it is true that they need money to upgrade their devices and cover various expenses such as electricity, maintenance, etc. If they do not find alternative sources to cover these expenses or if they cannot reduce them as you mentioned by using solar energy or cheaper energy and the price continues to drop, they will have to stop in the end, surely they will not stop all at once, but the continuation of the strongest able to withstand will be longer. Whenever new miners stop, this will give the remaining miners a chance to last longer.