Bitcoin Forum

Previously, when BTC did a retracement after a move down, it was 0.382 levels. Now, here are two scenarios:

1. BTC retrace towards 0.382 ($29.8k) on or before 1st Aug 2022.
2. BTC doesn't touch the trendline and continues to fall.

Which one of these do you think is going to execute?

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/vbNr8aS1.png

I'm still pessimistic that we will go and hit $29k in the current run that we are making so far.

So I will say, number 2 for me, doesn't touch the trend line and we might be on another sideway patterns. Of course, who wouldn't want to cross that trend line and have a break out run again, but with the current sentiments we have, sooner or later something will break about before the end of this month.

The thing is that the price seems to be going down in the last week or so because of the bitcoin future contracts, and if I'm not mistaken, this is every last Friday of the month.

So I'm expecting that the  price is somewhat going down on or before that Friday as the call buyers are obviously bearish on the market. Not sure though how many open call and open put positions are there, perhaps I need to look at deribit. But I would rather say it's better to not anticipated that $29k surge, just saying.

After several occasion of little pumps for sure next to that is dump so I guess this current good trend happening is temporary.

But who knows maybe next month if demand will go up we can say the $25k-$30k reached up again.

If that price mark reach then maybe we can say that this will be the little indicator that we will have a healthy last quarter of the year and we will might never experience to see bitcoin go down at $15k level.

If we talk about short term bitcoin targets, it could have a chance to reach $24k-$25k because the price now is at $23k which is more positive than yesterday.
But I am not sure if in the next month, the price can be at $29k as that is not easy to break every high price wall and that means, bitcoin needs more support from outside.
If in the next 10 days, bitcoin movements can be good and different than before, bitcoin will have the opportunity to back to $25k first and then the price can try to increase step by step to $29k.
The chart can say many things, but we need to check on what happened to the market and decide what we need to do.

Is reaching to 0.382 ($29.8k) meaningful? In other words, if we succeed in reaching levels below 30k Long-term resistance, these levels will not continue to hold for periods, and breaking the resistance barrier at 23k with 28k to above 30K seems very difficult.
Therefore, I think that we may break the $24,000 barrier, but we will soon return to levels between $17,000 and $23,000.

I'd go for this option. Even though we're only talking about 10 days here, given how quickly price fell from this level, it should be able to rise just as quickly now that a trend reversal looks confirmed.

For slightly longer-term, by September maybe, then I think $37K is realistic before a considerable pull-back, which would also be the 0.382 from $69K to $17.6K. I otherwise still think price can reach $49K (0.618) before the end of the year followed by a correction back down to $25K to $30K levels, probably a 50% drop. This would be the same as what happened in 2019 and most didn't expect to see.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/t/tdifmVVN.png

there is a third option too which is bitcoin goes up and down like many times before.
we could see $25k and a struggle to break that.
then we could see price fall down to $20k again and struggle to break that too.
then we see rise again to $25k to repeat the same thing.

if we are to invest in a short period of time, then I agree with your opinion, We must be observant in predicting the price of bitcoin in a short time to make a profit.
but in my opinion the price of bitcoin in the next few months will continue in the range of 20k to 25k.