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No signs of recession. And they... cut the deficit, by a record half trillion dollars.

How long will it take these claims to be validated or disproven I wonder. Weeks or months. The clock is ticking. While these articles are printed on the internet. It would seem that TV news follows a completely different format in terms of what they publish.

Sometimes, I catch a glimpse of what is being said on televised news. And it is like a completely different world from the articles published on the internet. The content is completely different Has anyone had this experience?

Would be curious to know what the public thinks about claims of there being no recession. Certainly prices are rising significantly more than they did during the 2008 economic crisis. Is there anyone who will remember this, though.

Disproven. I don't know how long it will take, but it's like Powell:

Why Fed's Powell still thinks high inflation is 'temporary' (https://www.reuters.com/business/why-fed-chair-powell-still-thinks-high-inflation-is-temporary-2021-08-27/)

When they deny something they better start thinking seriously that what they deny is going to happen. And then when reality contradicts what they had said, nothing happens.

I'm not a U.S. citizen and the information I have about recession, inflation and rising cost of living is from what's available online and in the news.
I would say to an extent the global market stage has been affected by the happenings over the past 2 or so years, and each country has taken a hit, albeit to different degrees.

Well, news releases and written articles are a bit different. Writers these days do no write original content as much as they used to, and many of the released articles are quotes from government officials which would most likely be optimistic. News casters more often speak on pertinent issues and share their own original thoughts (could be biased of course).

Janet Yellen can talk BS as much as she wants. I don't believe that anyone with a brain is taking her seriously.
The recession is coming in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023. This isn't bad news, because the inflation will be put under control and the global fuel prices might decrease a little bit. Every crisis can be an opportunity and another good thing is that the global financial system might be returning back to normal, by increasing the interest rates and reducing the quantitative easing.
The "We’ve cut the deficit by a record one and a half trillion dollars this year" statement got me laughing. The Democrats simply don't know when to stop lying. Obviously there's isn't a clear line between facts and fantasies in the US Democratic party. ;D

It's not about the party, it's not about lies, it's not about taking them serious. I've seen the same in the previous recession. The ones handing people's money will tell as long as they can that there's no recession and there will not be recession. Why that? Because they want people stay calm, go to their jobs, use their fiat. If there would be panic, the things would get much worse than "just" recession.

I do like to watch re-runs of the old Dante's Peak movie, I like how they show there how authorities tend to react in case of emergencies (no matter they're natural or financial).

Oh why not, we are not in recession that's why it costs triple the basic cost to buy everyday grocery and double the rates at what we used to buy the fuel. She must be in possession of billion dollars that's why she is not getting suffered with the recession. Lolz.
Ask common person, the 9-5 guy and one who has to sustain the family of 4 - how are they surviving?

It's not at all easy job, only the middle class understands or gets burnt into the ashes through such economic down turn.

I am not sure what else she mean by inflation and not the economic recession? What kind of situation she is really explaining here.

To be fair, they're not making guarantees or legally-binding statements, just predictions and morale-boosting crap.  It's been going on for hundreds of years at least across the world and many governments.

It's strange; in my area it seems like nobody wants to work and there are plenty of jobs available.  Don't recessions usually correspond to periods of high unemployment?  Businesses aren't doing badly as far as I can tell, and the stock market is still soaring.  I get all of the arguments about debt and inflation and so forth, but personally it really doesn't feel like a recession to me--definitely not like 2011-13 or whenever the last really bad one was.  Remember those days?

Yeah pretty much they cant say anything negative for the sake of the mass. Imagine admitting that the country is in dire situation, that would have caused mass panic which would lead to some other problem that could rise. Aside from that, most goverment tend to think that if the majority still could afford some bread for their mouth that means things are 'okay'


Its more like we are on the verge of recession but not really recession as of now. Probably in a year or so the effect would be alot more significant isnt it

There's no way we can be accurate about this weather being true or not but time will tell, although it is believed that inflation has hit almost every part if the world which is one of the first signal to recession, US over a long time got affected by this amidst struggle to o ercome inflation and the aftermath consequence, the ongoing war and unrest in Russia-Ukraine is part of it, while the Pandemic effect of covid 19 consequence is also emancipating now, the truth is that things have gone wrong so badly but never out of hands, now at the verge to either enter or wave recession.
 

depends on what metrics are used to prove/disprove a recession is or isnt occurring

if its simply to say that spending has not decreased. then yea it hasnt.
more money is flowing.. but thats because things cost more. obviously

things cost more EG buying a loaf of bread may change from $1.50 to $2 a loaf would show as a 'spending increase of 33%' at a bakers, looks good right a bakers anual report shows a 33% more cashflow or a 33% increase per transaction..

..however peoples incomes have not also increased by 33% and so they are not going to be buying as many physical loaves of bread. or the bakers are going to make less bread or make smaller loaves to compensate the loss of produce sold on their side due to less bulk being sold.

however continually raising the price might look like more spending is occuring due to each years accounting shows the average transaction value has increased by 33%
thus it might look like more money is shifting around the economy. but less produce is being moved around. causing less labour and equipment to be used. thus less employment.

also instead of people having disposible income to put into a savings account which is a good economy of not spending.. having a situation where people are having to not just spend the disposible income but also dip into their previous savings and become less wealthy just to stay afloat is not a healthy economy.

i can easily double someones salary. and see him spend that money and say there is no recession.. but if im also his landlord and local grocery store owner where i have tripled his rent and tripled his foodbill.
he is going to become homelesss soon due to not being able to afford the rent, and starve due to getting less food for his value. yet on the balance sheets the money flowing around the neighbourhood shows that more money is flowing. even if people are becoming starved/homeless, due to les product/service used for that money

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row (https://www.ft.com/content/8e4caa59-5799-430b-9896-e494369900dc)

Technically, it's a recession.

She can go about redefining what Recession mean actually and its now how we undertand it because it will make us think we defined recession wrong.

This is the same thig when they said, inflation is temporary. Soon she'd announce she was wrong about Recession just as how wrong she was with inflation.

What happened that we all fear a recession nowadays? Isn't that a normal "wave" in a normal economy? Let it happen, ride it out, and let the economy grow stronger. Isn't that how the economy used to work?

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

Sure I don't think it will have to take all continent economy to go back to zero before we get it that economies of today are not same 10 years back especially with the sec increase and inflation hike. This is to some economy as recession because they are going through hard times and policies not working, they go borrowing to finance capital projects and pay salaries, that is recession.

Rich guys are pulling levers to make poor work. Its nothing more. Many of our current miseries are created ones. Be it Ukraine war, be it banking crisis in china or high pricxes of oil. These are nothing but rich men trying to  push the poor into poverty and keep them enslaved. For some it is a black swan.

Or perhaps they think ordinary people are idiots. There are many options and one does not exclude the other.

This is one of the classic tactics of politicians, they are just moving the goalposts and nothing more, it is similar to what they do with inflation or unemployment in which they modified the criteria to give the impression the inflation and the unemployment are lower, but if we used the previous criteria we can see that inflation and unemployment are way higher than what we thought, so it is not really that surprising they are trying to do the same with the recession term.

I think the US has been in a recession for a long time, so we don't have to wait until the second quarter GDP growth report is negative to really say they're entering a recession. The primaries are about to start so the government will do its best not to notify the people of this, it will have a profound effect on the upcoming primaries. Everything has to do with politics and it's no surprise that they do this.

They're now changing the game. They're now shifting into a play of words and meanings. All for the sake of denial. This seems to be an action of last resort. When the hard facts on the ground say otherwise, when reality itself doesn't support their claims, when numbers themselves are not backing up their words, they change the definition.

They're now doing away with the established definition that recession means having negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. Such definition can't support their denial anymore.

In roughly just a week, there were already 41 attempts to edit the definition of recession. This led to a Wikipedia admin to disable its editing.^[1]

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[1] https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definition-recession/

Well right now if you ask around, most people will think the same. It doesn’t seem like we are in a recession. We got great job reports and shortage of workers everywhere. People are buying everything like crazy and over paying and causing inflation to go up even higher. People got jobs, businesses make money, everyone is happy. Doesn’t sound like a recession.

However the technicals suggest we might head into one because this path we are on is not sustainable. Inflation can’t go up 1% every month and unemployment numbers can’t be this low. Eventually it will crack, the question is when.

Yellen does not say the right thing - every country is in recession
However they pretend that they will not be in hot water but they are.

All the above seems applicable. Wrong about inflation, wrong about a recession. What else aren't they telling us?


Yellen is not even the proverbial politician lying to their constituency in order to win at the ballot box, though she talks like a politician. Unfortunately, these are the types of folks that operate centralized financial institutions. There is no escaping the conflation of party politics and the fiscal policy of a nation's economy. I question Yellen's motive and competency.

We live in times of economic recovery in all countries and that has caused some to be in greater recession than others as a result of those two terrible years that will continue to have a long-term effect on some countries more than others.


My news sources may be very different from yours, but in the sense that you are asking, both traditional media and those on the Internet have somehow lost the objective of reliable information. Before, any journalistic media would verify that reliable was sources or they could verify it themselves.

So that promptness for being the first to have exclusive news means that there is sometimes that disparity in the comparison of the news that one consumes in order to be informed.

When a politician says there are no signs of recession, that statement on it's own is a sign of recession. If it wasn't, there would be no need to say it.

It's about not making people think they are not in deep trouble. I guess it's working though. The countries that are far poorer are much in trouble than the country who has the reserve. We in the third world are going to suffer more if things become uncontrollable.

Jerome Pal admitted how little did he know about inflation and everything is temporary I guess including this recession. They don't want to start panic.

The whole world is in the state of panic - and I haven't met anyone during this time who says he is happy and things are going perfectly well.
People are unable to find jobs here - but one good thing most of the people are finding ways to earn money online. They are coming in freelancing and that business is blooming.

This is sort of insulting, like me not believing what I am experiencing but instead believing the total opposite, which is contrary to what is going on.  I get the whole reassurance and avoiding panic by the general public, but the signs have been around and haven't disappeared.  If anything, this will make the general public angry for insulting their intelligence.

Doubtful. Most people just believe it when government tells them there's no recession. And that's the intention of course: if people believe there's a recession, they'll spend less money.

I think it's normal and natural for the average person to spend less money in troubled times and it's hard to blame them for that. The task and responsibility of the state is to increase spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to compensate for the decline in spending by private households and so that the economy does not slide into a depressive self-rewinding spiral. But if the state is already mired in debt over the years of life with a chronic budget deficit, then this is really a problem.

There's another problem: anti-cyclic investing by government doesn't work if the recession is combined with high inflation caused by shortage of products. Any government investment will increase demand and thus further inflate prices.