Bitcoin Forum

These days news about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors is spreading on Twitter and seems very alarming to the BTC price action in coming days, as BTC price has not yet gained any momentum towards 28k which most of the so-called technical analysts predicted. I think we are most likely to hit <15k BTC in the coming days due to the release of almost 140k BTC from Mt gox.

If you search for the #mtgox at Twitter you will see how tense is the situation: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mtgox&src=typed_query

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

They were able to live and wait for years so I won't be surprised if they hold on to it until the next run or longer to maximize their returns.

It's up to them at the end of the day so just be prepared to sell or convert to stable coin if you're too worried about what they will do.

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them. When Mt gox was hacked, the price of bitcoin was nothing as compared to now. These people are lucky to get that money back and they will dump it right away as first of all it is free money for them and secondly, they have waited enough.  :)

I'm predicting a mega-dump, almost closing in on $18K as did last dip. But once again, BTC's going to recover from that a week or two later, and will eventually reach these current prices after about a month.

Why? Because Gox crashed sometime in 2014. 8 years later, and I doubt that all those creditors still want to hold BTC, so many will probably liquidate them.

I'm about up to nothing these days with Mt Gox news. It just seems to keep seeming it's around the corner, only to be delayed to some other date. If ever there were expected impact, it'd have to be priced in a long time ago, so nope, zero effect beyond the few minutes it tends to stir a couple of trader hornets. Don't hold your breath.

Don't expect this to be delayed forever. One day, people will gonna get their funds back and they gonna dump it through the market order.

Why not let it happen today and the fear of mt gox dump is over forever?

Victims of Mt Gox have been waiting for years for this moment and since the price of btc back then is not what it is now it is very likely some will want to dump as soon as they receive their funds. After such awful experience no one will blame them for selling and fleeing, so most likely there will be pressure on price if more than half of the victims have this opinion but on the other hand, it is possible some will decide to hold base on the fact that their assets has appreciated since the mt gox incident happens.
If it was me i won't be selling knowing what the future holds for btc but different strokes for different folks.

I expect that it is possible that a large part of them will hold the amount of bitcoin that they will receive, they must see the current market improvement with expectations to continue to rise so it is likely that they will wait for more time to increase their profits after losing their money all these years, frankly they cannot be blamed Even if they sold it immediately and caused the market to fall because they lost it for a long time and now they got it back.

It this is true there is no doubt it will dip the price a whole lot if they all decide to sell their btc, between why will the authority decide to pay all the funds at once knowing the impact it will have on price  ??? installment payment would have been a better option. Anyways, better to get it done with so that we can all move on from it. 

Uh...what all of the creditors will do with their money when they get it back is unknown, but it is impossible that all of them will sell it instantly which will cause a mega-dump, some of these creditors will hold, while some will sell it, and that will tell the type of dump that is to come, another thing that will determine how bad it is going to be is how the money is going to be paid, would all the creditors receive a lump-sum payment of their money, surely people will request for alternate means, all of these will slow down the pace at which people will liquidate and reduce the effect on bitcoin price.
This snippet is from this news, it is from a month ago, but a good read on the topic.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/14/no-mt-gox-payouts-arent-going-to-torpedo-bitcoins-price/

If they will release it in one go then what's the reason bitcoin has been pumping these past few days if many are aware of this event. If its signalling a new market bottom for this bear season then Investors could have just wait for that to happen before buying.

My theory is they will release it by batch starting next month so it wouldn't make a huge impact if creditors sell those btc.

I think a large amount of these people are going to dump there coins, because this whole Mt Gox thing..left a bad taste in their mouth. Yes, there might be some of them that might be waiting for the next All-time-high price.. but we will definitely see a sizeable sell off of some of those coins.

I hope a lot more of these people will hoard their coins, because they were some of the early investors that had the balls and the vision to invest in something when it was still unknown and a very high risk. (They deserve a good payday, when the price hits the next all-time-high price)  ;)

I hope they will release the bitcoin in batches or else its gonna have a huge negative impact to the market, we've been hearing about the news of Mt Gox releasing bitcoin, but it has not happened, I hope this time around it's not to instill fear on investors in buying the dip because despite the news, bitcoin has been pumping ever since it dumped to 17k, any time they want to release it, it will be better it is in batches, because I'm quite sure that majority of those who will receive it will definitely sell off asap

Not many people voted yet, so it's unclear where the majority stands, but I voted for no effects. While the funds being released can be seen as a threat (assuming that people will try to sell immediately, that is), it's also a very positive thing because those who were wronged a long time ago in one of the most famous crypto scams/hacks are finally getting some reimbursements. I think that FUD over a lot of money entering the market will be balanced out to excitement that something good came out of it when most probably did not expect to get anything and came to accept their losses. I also don't think all of those people will sell their BTC immediately, given that the price is still fairly low and they can hold the funds long-term, properly this time. We'll see, of course, if something like that truly happens.

It is classic and natural life of news. The market gradually adapt to a same type of news. Initially and in first few times, it creates a lot of panic (mostly panic) but in later times, no panic or very few panic.

Mt. Gox: fear of dump. Sooner or later, very few people will be fearful about such risk
SEC reject for Bitcoin ETFs in 2018, 2019: previously people thought that the market dumps because of SEC-related news. Later, such news did not bring negative effects.
Consumer Price Index, etc in the USA: we are witnessing it but in last two times of such announcement, not dramatic fear and price dumps on the market.

Choose a good asset for your portfolio, understand about it (basics at least) and be strong!

no one can predict the decisions of thousands of random people..

but here is the thing you can predict
IF the price goes down.. then thats discount. an opportunity to get coin cheap before the next cycle
IF the price doesnt go down. then the next cycle can come sooner without the temporary delay caused by first 'If'

either way, the next cycle will be higher than this cycle, so just needs patience.
this mass coin release is just a temporary event. its not going to break bitcoin for months,years. its just going to possibly affect prices for hours/weeks

From my own prediction, I believe bitcoin will dump because most of them will want to sell instantly, just few of them will hold, some of them will sell and still wait for bitcoin to dump then buy again. My question is when is it going to be released?
No matter how bitcoin dump, it's definitely going to recover that's why I don't panic, if they dump it I think that's another buying opportunity for me and if it those not dump then I will keep on holding the one am having.

This whole drama about Mt.Gox is a great shame for Japan as a country, because they have shown how ineffective they have become when it comes to justice. But I am even more surprised that people in some sensationalistic way try to present the situation of refunding funds to damaged clients and that this has been going on for months.

From some previous topics it was possible to find out that 3 payment options are available to clients - cash to bank account, Bitcoin or BCH. It is also known that the payments will be made gradually, that is, not everyone will receive their funds on the same day. When these facts are taken into account, why does anyone expect that around 140 000 BTC will be dumped on the market at one point and that this will cause a new crash?

I read some comments from the link posted in the OP and one comment caught my attention - if there is anyone who is expecting payment from Mt.Gox, can they confirm that they haven't even asked for BTC addresses to return BTC?

I am almost convinced a large part of them will dump everything simply due to Bitcoin currently standing somewhere close to the All Time High of 2017.  A lot of them are going to sell because they would be able to live very well with the money they would get out of Bitcoin and, most likely, a lot of them are extremely angered by the situation enough to sort of hate Bitcoin for what happened to them and their savings or investment.

Sure, Bitcoin will rebound.  But I expect a large sell off as soon as the big bags are returned to the owners.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

Well somethings not quite right here, as we're talking about 140K bitcoin that's worth $3.4 billion as of typing, not $17 billion. Unless $10b+ has already been claimed as part of the earlier payout scheme (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/14/no-mt-gox-payouts-arent-going-to-torpedo-bitcoins-price/)?

(I just realised that the amount credited is lower than the amount claimed, hence $18.4 billion in claims with 140K Bitcoin credited)


There are so many unanswered questions about this case;

Have creditors already received their cash settlement for those who chose this option, given that Fortress were offering to give early payouts for 20% discount (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-19/fortress-said-to-offer-earlier-payout-on-mt-gox-creditor-claims#xj4y7vzkg) when price was around $60K?
How many actually opted (sort of gambled) to wait for their Bitcoin in the hope it would be slightly more than the earlier cash settlement, and is it? Doesn't look like it...

One thing for sure is that 140K is a lot of coins, but is only around 10% of daily volume, which in contrast sounds like nothing. The selling can be absorbed a lot easier than most would expect, as long as there are buyers waiting to buy, as opposed to speculators shorting the price. Even if all the coins were sold on the same day, we're talking about an extra 10% of volume, so might only lead to a 10% dip in reality if price remains relatively neutral up until that point. If price starts breaking above $25K towards $30K with high volume, any creditors selling could become barely noticeable, depending on market sentiment.

This is no longer the extra 850K liquidity disaster that could of happened, it's now only around 0.66% increase in available circulating supply.


Why would these creditors be choosing to receive Bitcoin over cash if they want to dump the coins? Makes no sense.

MtGox only got 140k btc, Others they lost during the hack. Thats why they are only distributing 140k

---

Its not about those creditors will sell their 140k coins at once, there were few strategies, if they opted to get paid in cash then the escrow will have to sell the coins at once and that would be the problem. If they opted to get paid in the BTC too, then again, Whales will take benefit of the situation and they will try to dump the btc price to buy back at lower price.

yes people have been waiting a long time to get their wealth back and for years they can also track the movement of bitcoin they see its upside potential
maybe not all will sell their bitcoins once received, those who need the money will sell, those who believe in bitcoin they can continue to hold
it can be seen that the market's reaction to this news is normal and not as harsh as previous speculations

Thanks for clarifying that, I thought you were implying $17 billion bitcoin was being distributed, but clearly not.


As I referenced, Fortress were offering to buy up these coins "in advance" for 80% of value, in March 2021 when price was around $60K, as also referenced in the report (https://www.blockchainresearchlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BRL-Research-Note-1-MtGox.pdf):


This brings me back to your question: will the creditors hodl? I think they would have already jumped at the opportunity over a year ago to sell to Fortress and others. Why would they be selling now, if they didn't take the opportunity to sell when they could over a year ago at much better prices? Sure there will be a few who regret not selling that now will... but otherwise I generally agree with the outlook:


Returning back to my original questions, how much of this BTC has already been sold... this seems unclear still. What is clearer is that the distribution will have much less effect on the spot market as I speculated sometime ago, given there are equity firms offering to buy up these coins for a discount. I imagine now with lower prices the discount won't be as low as 20%, but remain attractive compared to selling on spot. Of course the tiny percentage that hold 20-50% of the claims will no doubt have the opportunity to manipulate the market, but this has always been the case with whales who have considerable supply, so nothing new.

Either way thanks for sharing that report, it did help to shed some more light on the situation that I was previously unaware of, such as the selling that been taking place behind closed doors for over a year now.

It is hard to tell if any of the Mt Gox creditors will hold all their Bitcoin but it is sure that some of the 22,560 creditors will send their BTC asap they receive and I think we should expect at least 60% of the creditors to sell their BTC.
Having said that, the bear market is not over and if 60% of the Mt Gox creditor sells it will open another opportunity in the market. In the meantime, let's just hope they didn't sell though.

they already know the value of bitcoin continues to grow every year so they are not likely to throw it away at the current price either, I think they will hold on to it because they believe bitcoin will still hit another ATH in the near future, but back to their decision and I believe bitcoin won't hit the low price again

I think some people will sell a % of what they get back but I doubt there will be many people selling all of the coins they get returned. These guys have watched bitcoin go from 3 figures to what it is now so I would imagine there will be a lot of smart people willing to HODL for a lot longer because they’ve seen the performance bitcoin has put in over all those years.

Whales could try & use the news to dump the price but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as some predict.

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

Its really impossible for someone not to have these kind of anticipation yet even myself to be one of those creditors or users of Mt.gox back in the past and able to get a hold of my coins then i would definitely be

selling it out considering on the profit that you do make.You've been thinking that this is some sort of holding your coins for a very long time.Its expected that there would really be market decline or dump.

But as we do all know that if there's dump then there's always a recovery.It wont be permanent and im aint even seeing that the price would really be going below 10k or going back into that level
but we know that possibilities is always there because market is unpredictable as always.

If I hadn't been around for Tim Draper's auction back in the day, I would agree with you that is the only possible outcome.  However, given that Blackrock just gave Bitcoin the green light, it's quite possible that they might scoop up all of the BTC being dumped from the mtgox victims (is that what we are?) and more.  I wouldn't discount the possibility.  I think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in at the bottom, and I think the bottom has already started moving up in anticipation.  This will be interesting to watch though and I'd want to own some Bitcoin once that is in the rear view.

I'm all for it. But as I said, it's all priced in. It's been priced in for years. Just like those Bitcoin ETFs everyone was hyping up and waiting for, when they finally came, the intended effect was negligible.

When this one happens and even if it dumps, it'll be a whimper effect, really.

I don't believe that the price that Draper paid in the Silk Road auctions was ever made public. Draper is also an individual investor (with a lot of money), while Blackrock is an investment firm. For Blackrock to buy any amount of coin, they would need to have some kind of hedge fund they are managing to be in need of said coin. I am not aware of this being the case. Further, I don't see any reason why Blackrock would wait until the Gox coins are released to former Gox customers. Institutional traders tend to buy/sell large positions over time, and the bitcoin market is fairly deep.

All government auctions will eventually be public. He paid about $19 million for 29,657 bitcoins.

Can't find the information on the 2nd auction, have to borrow someones PACER account to search a bit more. Either it's not been saved on RECAP or it's under a different case / docket number that I can't seem to dig up.

-Dave

When speaking about effects of something like this on bitcoin price, some people focus on the details that are important but irrelevant to the trend. Details such as amount of coins, whether it is paid in bitcoin or in fiat, whether it is going to be paid at all! etc.

The only thing that matters is how much fake news is going to come out because of this news (whether positive or negative) and how the weak hands are going to react to it.
I'd say right now majority of weak hands are sitting on fiat because they've already sold and all the FUD telling them "a big dump is going down to $17k-$18k" has discouraged them from buying back in. Price also hasn't surpassed the resistance well enough for them to jump back in.
This means the chances of the FUD having a strong effect are very negligible.

Side thought, if they were ALL dumped using some back of the napkin math it's still a bit less then what Tesla and Luna dumped over the last few months.
Although there were some people who did have a lot of BTC tin MtG and they need money NOW I think there are more who are still holding / using BTC and see this as a free investment so they are going to hold it. Also, keep in mind there are going to be tax implications if they sell larger amounts so they would trickle it out anyway.

So, no I'm sticking with that if they are all released and all sold it's not going to matter that much.

-Dave

I found a few articles from years ago that suggest the ~$640/btc price he paid was about 2% above the then-current market price.

It seems that the Luna Foundation sold (https://fortune.com/2022/05/16/luna-foundation-guard-dumps-bitcoin-reserves-terra-usd-peg/) about 80k bitcoin over a three-day period, worth approximately $2.4 billion, and the price declined roughly 20%.

It is unclear if the Luna Foundation or Tesla was able to shop around the coin they were wanting to sell to institutional investors to avoid having to sell it on the open market. It is probably more likely that Luna Foundation sold on the open market due to the more-urgent need for liquidity. A sale to an institutional investor is likely similar to having a sale spread out over a long period of time.

More like 16% at most considering the highest price on May 8th was $35400 and the lowest price on May 10th was $29700. The dates are from the article and they claim the liquidation took place at that time. They also say it was between $31,000 and $35,000 which means the decline the sale caused was closer to 11%.

I am not even entirely confident that the article got it perfectly right. Sure there must be some truth to it, but it doesn't sound like 2.4 billion dollars worth of bitcoin would drop it only 20%, or maybe that's just me, it feels like more would fall. In any case, it's done now and we are beyond it, let it be known that we took over 2 billion dollar hit (and also tesla sale which was over 1 bilion) in a bulk order and we still stood strong.

I know we may look low right now, but we recover, and even though we may go down and up anytime we want, mt gox deal can't hover over us forever which would be a great thing to do because it will mean that we will get rid of it.

I hope you are right.  I think that much supply being dumped on the market has to effect something, but there appear to be Wall Steet firms lining up to soak up the excess coins. 

I also think most of the coins will be sold.  They should have a clear cost basis and that makes them perfect candidates for selling in order to have a nice clean paper trail for Uncle Sam.  I think that alone will be a temptation for many of the mtgox coin recipients.  I'm also not sure how taxes will be handled yet with these coins.  Are the recipients going to owe capital gains taxes or is that being stripped out prior to the distribution?  That could also have a big effect on so many coins...  I'm still waiting until I have coins in hand before I have the necessary talks with a lawyer, but I assume there will be forced selling.

I feel like all this fear mongering in the bear market is a well planed tactic to scare people and make them dump into the hands of these big trust funds. Think about it for a second. You don't see a lot of these news in the bull market, but when the price falls by at least 50% from the top they come at you with full force. Gox coins were to be released since 2020. They were talking about it for 2 years and there was always some small hurdle and the release was delayed for a few months. Knowing it, people drove the price to almost $70k. Back then there was no fear of Gox, but now  suddenly there is?

You want to know why? They prey on your fear. You're stuck watching the charts and they keep telling you it's going to get worse to wear you down. All this is done right after the announcement that Blackrock is going to buy.

Gox is not going to dump anything because the restitution is going to take months. People are not going to dump anything because they see how high inflation is and how low BTC got. Even if Bitcoin loses 10% this year it's still going to perform better than most of the EU. Greece, Spain and Belgium are already over 10% and Ireland is gaining at 9.6%.

I heard that some of them are already being paid in advance. That is made possible by the crypto exchange which name is ftx. So I think the impact is not going to be that huge because some already sold their coins or idk maybe some of them hodl it for the better since they see that btc price is still not great.

The unfortunate moment had happened long time ago so those people have probably moved on and already have a money on them so the btc that they will be getting won't be immediately needed. People shouldn't see this as a negative news but it's a kind of positive news actually because who would have thought that the coins are still going to be returned to their rightful owners?

The article was being broader, and less precise than it should have been. You are correct to say the price decline was closer to 16%, even if this is nitpicking.

Will there be a 60%-80% decline in the price? No, at least not unless there are other factors unrelated to the Gox coin being released to Gox account holders that cause the price to decline. But there will be selling pressure resulting from these coins being released

It appears there will be some sort of drop; how much?- time will tell soon.  However on the bright side, the price drop will present another great opportunity to fill up bags at a discount for your HODLing pleasure.

They were able to wait for so many years because they didn't have any other option.
So I think that we will see a huge volatility when Mt Gox releases the funds.
The chances of a dump are high since many would think to exit and then sell their coins causing a dip.
Any idea when they are planning to release the funds ?

i actually do agree with you, i mean if i were one of the investor and wait for this long period of time I'm gonna sell little bit to enjoy profit they made a thousand percent if they sell right now.

But also i will hold lot of it. maybe i only sold 1-2 BTC  ;D

I agree with this thinking, this story happened in 2014 and getting compensation now is a surprise for them. No one would have thought they would be able to get their compensation after all these years, so they had other ways to fix their problems in the past.
Getting back BTC is not necessary to use it now and in Mt.Gox announcement they can get it back with BTC or cash so don't worry and don't
 spread FUD.

Unfortunately things like this always have a negative indirect effect on the price. Most of the times it is not even those coins that affect the price but everyone else's coins who panic sell that affect the price.

This is why I always say in order to speculate about such news we should focus on how many weak hands remaining instead of how much coins are being sold. I'd say right now we don't have enough weak hands left to have a significant impact on the price, which is clear from market behavior too.

Not a huge dip though but there will be some changes in the price for sure because those people will not gonna be 100% holding their BTC anymore. But this is actually good news it's been really a long long time since they have this kind of promise and this time they will get their BTC for sure. I'm not really sure if the other owners are still alive though. nevertheless, it's really best to hear such news after a long period of waiting.

Why would these claimants not have sold their claims over the past year+ to companies like Fortress, and then sell now when price is down by 70%? They were being offering up to $48K per coin back in March 2021, so not sure why they would hodl only to sell around $20K. Some claimants are dumb, for sure, but not most of them I don't think. As you pointed out, most would sell for profit, so likely already done so.

I agree many would have sold their coins already, that much is true. I don't expect most are hodling any more personally. What the new owners (mainly instiutions) do with these coins is another story though...

Sure, it is possible that some will sell in advance of the release of the coins in anticipation that those receiving the coin will also sell. This may lead to some of those who have received coin from the Gox distribution to sell when they otherwise may not have except for the lower price.

The sales cited upthread were unexpected and were not pre-planned. I don't think anyone was selling ahead of the sales related to the luna foundation sales for example. If you anticipate that people will sell ahead of the gox coin being distributed/released, I would say that you anticipate the price decline to be greater than the decline in recent months. However any short-term price decline will not change any underlying fundamentals in bitcoin, including its underlying value.

I believe there has been some discussion regarding this topic. For some unknown reasons moderators moved it to "Speculation" section while leaving the OP here...  ;D

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5406330.msg60568522#msg60568522

Thanks!

For some reasons maybe they are been hype again when seeing the price of bitcoin having a good run especially when it reach to its new ATH. Maybe they think that the offer of fortress is little bit low compare to the money they can possibly get if the price pump up for more.

Pretty sure that there are creditors regret their decision not to sell especially seeing the current price of bitcoin which is far away from its last ATH.

News is circulating about the funds release tomorrow: https://twitter.com/search?q=mtgox&src=typed_query&f=live

This news is based exclusively on that PDF document that has been circulating for some time, and it says that the payments should start at the end of August. But the people who need to receive the same payments claim that they still don't know anything, that is, that no one has contacted them even regarding the BTC addresses to which they should receive the coins.

https://i.imgur.com/6fS5why.png

You are very correct, i dont think they will want to hold it, am sure not all of them will hold it but just few of them will hold and others will dump, and even if they sell it now they are already in good profit because when the exchange was hacked bitcoin price was very low compare to now. Most of them wont believe they will get the money back, some of them will have forgotten about the money, so if they distribute for them, its just like a free money for some of them. Am just waiting for them to dump it so that i can accumulate more bitcoin.

These people will become practical now. I believe there will be some people that will sell all Bitcoins will get because for sure they have some personal reasons or views with Bitcoin, but they are not at loss anymore.
But I believe there are still some people that may be sold some portion and they will hold some portion too.

This is still most likely some time away since no official update notice-  if I has to guestimate would say 3-6 months.  This anticipated large sell off might not be a huge as some think and buying into such may only help in relieving weaker hands and panic sellers of their coin at a bargain.

Still confuse and looks little doubt about  Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors because ever I found new tweet because they not get respond yet about bitcoin fund address, I don't know about which one issues with Mt Gox releasing fund for their member. How ever with Mt Gox refund <15k BTC have been long time issues and actually ended on August is deadline day promising. I think what about Mt Gox releasing fund for their member looks as fud or give bad news exactly for bitcoin holder. After this news release make bitcoin price drop drastically but waiting until end of August that true about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors or just bad news only how to make many investor panic selling their bitcoin assets and make price drop.

Now the effects of the bear market are still very visible and it is influenced by many things that are generally happening this year so it is not worth relating to just one effect.
Because when viewed globally in terms of the market, it is clear that not many investors and traders are moving to make purchases and invest in something including Bitcoin because some of them may still be recovering their money that was lost due to the decline in currency prices that is still happening.
And that includes Bitcoin so they have to use other money if they still want to buy and invest more in this period.

We all know that's what will happen, their are some people that won't even sell any of their bitcon, am sure some of them will still continue trading even after losing their money during the hack, so some of them will still believe in bitcon am sure those once won't sell, but some of them that lose interest after losing their money in the hack will definitely sell now. But since they are already in good profit I believe the percentage of the once that will sell will definitely be high because the are already in good profit so they won't really want to hold it, which will slightly affect bitcoin price but we all know bitcoin price will bounce back.

Most of these users who lost their bitcoins in 2014 did not leave the cryptocurrency world after the collapse of Mt Gox and still hold BTC in their portfolio, who bought possibly for a higher price. All these years they have been closely monitoring the BTC exchange rate and now they will receive bitcoin at a price of approximately $ 500, which they will hold at least until the new ATH. But there will definitely be those for whom, due to life circumstances, fixing a profit at the current price will be sufficient.

Honestly, we already saw the "dip" because of the news and people should realize, should have realized long time ago actually, that the news of a thing makes it drop further down than the thing itself. Which means that mt.gox could release the funds and it would not have a big drop, maybe like 1k drop at most and then it will recover.

Just realize that crypto is something that is dangerously volatile based on the news, a great news and it could go up 20%+ and a horrible news and it could crash 20%, doesn't have to happen, just the news of it makes it volatile like that all the time. Hell Elon literally controlled the market with his twitter account for a while.

Are you talking about the 'priced in' effect? I'm pretty sure it wasn't just the news about Mt. Gox's going to release the long-awaited fund but also because of the market and economy. Mt. Gox with 137k BTC (according to the rumor) mean little compared to BTC's 24h trading volume which is at 1,220,000 BTC today. Roughly 10% of the amount of BTC's daily trade volume. It'll cause a little damage but that's it.

The thing is, You can see FED has been repeated many times about to increase the rate. The stock market is already down quite badly. And this is just the weekend. Everyone fears the downturn might escalate more in the Monday opening of the EU and Asia stock markets. That's what makes BTC drop down below $20k and may drop further.

if they wanted bitcoin price could drop to $0, only that everyone who had put a lot of money in bitcoin would certainly be waiting for this moment to take bitcoin out of their hands at a cheap price, so if they throw it at a low price it won't last long for a decline price and will go back up after that, so everyone will be waiting it's under $20k now, but not sure it will go below $10k, trust me

But the effects of other events are I think have passed already like for example the inflation because I noticed that prices of the goods are returning to normal again. The latest issue that we have now is the mt gox releasing btc to their old users. Maybe that is the only responsible for the recent decline that we are experiencing now.

The reason why many aren't investing yet is because they are done investing already when the price was still lower than the current price but it's still possible for them to invest again as long as the price drops again below 20k. A true investor won't mind their assets declining due to bear but they will in fact add more coins in their existing portfolio.

I also think that would be the case. I'm assuming that BTC will dump dive even the claims release is partial and not everyone will get their btc at the same time. The upcoming selling pressure will be big and I think traders are selling out for them to be saved for the expected dump. I personally think that we can hit 15k atleast and 8k at worst if the support can't handle the selling pressure.

Whenever we do talk about bottoms then it cant really be determined on how low we could possibly able to reach out thats why hits market is totally unpredictable.It could neither get in
line with market news or fundamentals or wouldnt really be having no effect at all or would simply just move on a random manner without even knowing on whats the actual numbers.
It would really be just common sense that on the upcoming Mt.Gox funds sell off will definitely make out some significant impact towards the market and as an investor
then you should really be that wise on making out decisions of your investment.

Because when this incident happened, the value of bitcoin was very low and many people were not even aware of bitcoin.If these people get their bitcoins back and those people sell bitcoin, the market can crash a lot.But it is also possible that they charge a price in against for these bitcoins But one thing to note is that people who were aware of the importance of bitcoin in 2014 will sell bitcoin in a bear market?.  They will wait for the Bull run.Therefore, it seems unlikely that the Bitcoin price will crash further

it is very clear, 90% of them will just throw their bitcoins in a bear market because they have waited long enough for the bitcoin assets they have. this will definitely destabilize the bitcoin market, we must also be prepared to accommodate the bitcoins they sell. eventually everything will return to normal and some of those who are aware of the importance of long term investing and not selling in a bear market will wait for bitcoin price to improve or reach the next ATH.

It's interesting as I've heard a lot of FUD surrounding the release of these funds in recent days. Not because re-distributing thousands of Bitcoins wouldn't be bearish for the market, but instead news that isn't backed by facts or confirmed by reputable sources - hence FUD, rather than facts. It seems for now price has responded to these inaccuracies accordingly with some panic selling occurring, no doubt as intended.

Elsewhere I heard only a very small portion of funds were being released to creditors, those that opted for the "early lump sum" as opposed to the full amount, as documented by news sources. The reality is, we probably won't know when these funds are distributed until they are in the wallets of the creditors. Now we are hearing of payments coming in instalments (https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-creditors-dismiss-rumors-of-massive-bitcoin-dump), with again the situation dramatically changing.

Don't believe the hype...


I think institutions like Fortress will need to buy more claims personally in order to average into further to their long-term investment, as they started acquiring them from creditors in March 2021 when price was at $60+ for a 20% discount. So they started buying at around $40K to $50K thinking they were buying a decent discount, while now price is half that. Are they really going to sell for a 50% loss is the question here.

I also think 90% of them already sold their claims on over a year ago, so I agree with you to some degree. But not convinced the likes of Fortress are going to sell their coins at half price after waiting a year to receive them, more likely they and buy more claims at lower prices after the significant error or acquiring them at the top of the bull market. We still have no idea how many claims have already been sold, but I imagine most.

People's attitude towards MT Gox can be opposite. Since the price of Bitcoin is at its lowest level, many people will not want to sell Bitcoin. They can also hold. I think human emotions are responsible in this regard. So maybe the market is in a down trend. Hope it will soon recover and the price can be reach at $24k.

I know that I sold some BTC around $40K that I expect to get back from mtgox.  It's quite possible that I will hold onto the BTC I get from gox and maybe even buy more if the price dips again.  Saying that people will all sell might not be accurate.  A good point about the big boys using this opportunity to scoop BTC also.  That may make the price rise... 

I would disagree that 90% of mtgox depositors have already sold their claims.  I think the actual number is probably closer to 5%, but that's just my guess.   

In any event, I still haven't received any news that BTC is being distributed, and still have no idea where this rumor that everyone was getting their BTC back today came from.

How the heck can 137k BTC crash BTC price back to 10-12k price or 15k at least or 8k at worst? I hate to repeat myself since I already made a post about this but did you know how much BTC's 24h trading volume at? 1,600,000 BTC right now and you think 137k BTC which is only at 8.5% for 1 day could crash BTC price to -50% for the 10-12k price? Or at -25% for 15k at least or -60% for 8k at worst?


Even if it were true, the amount isn't that much, enough for everyone to make it like a very big deal, saying it crashes BTC to half of its price and such. I just don't get why everyone keeps saying that. Follow the same narrative everywhere without even checking the BTC's 24h trading volume to get a sense. Sure, I also think it'll hurt the BTC price if they release it in one goes but not as much hurt as everyone thought.

Just feel weird all of a sudden. Like I was talking to a bunch of bots. Or people's spam posts to meet their signature campaign? Cause it's easier to say and repeat over the same thing. Your post makes me feel a bit more real.

Thanks for your reply on the subject, since you are a creditor so have some accurate information to provide. Do you mind me asking if you got the offer of the "early settlement" or otherwise, and whether it included selling the claim to the likes of Fortress or others that were acquiring those claims? Obviously not looking for specifics, just trying to understand the situation a little better, which still remains very vague.


I realise 90% of creditors might not have sold, but I fail to understand how if they chose not to sell to those acquiring the claims when price was $50K+ why they would sell a year later when price has dropped over 50%. Maybe it's to do with the discount as well as early settlements reducing the overall return from the distribution? But either way it seems a little strange to me as an outsider to the case why creditors would sell now and not earlier when they were given the opportunity, even at a reduced rate as well as reduced overall return. Hence for those who wanted rid of their coins, they had ample opportunity to do so it seems.


I honestly think it was nothing more than a FUD based rumour (that worked well). The price fell and it gave the opportunity for others to liquidate long positions.

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Indeed, the amount is only around 10% of daily trading volume, assuming that volume isn't grossly inflated, as well as assuming the Bitcoin will be sold the same day, then it won't leave much of a mark on the market compared to other high selling days. If I had to guess it wouldn't cause a 50% drop in price, but more like 10-20% at worst, assuming it's all sold same day as released (which turns out isn't the case).

There will be a crash in the market if the coin is been credited to the affected users, their will be a dump because most of them will sell it instantly, if they are been credited we might see bitcoin around &15k which is another opportunity for people that are interested in bagging more coin, bitcoin will pump again but it won’t be now, it will take a few months, it might not even be this year but I have believe that bitcoin will be great again and it will be know in every part of the word and it will be accepted as payment method in every part of the world but it will take time.

True .. if it's about mt gox holders vs the casual people that been in crypto for years ... then i would say that the flash crash might occured but for very short term only .. the rest is just another bull coming our way! At least till we meet the all time high mark in the next halving , this shouldnt be a huge obstacle though if you looking at the future impact.

Bitcoin will remain bullish till that day, just be patient.

Maybe but I am guessing most will dump 50% which would have been way more than what they had in value then and because they have seen what Bitcoin is now, I bet they would love to hodl some till the next bull market to even gain more from that too, that's what I would have done.

Suddenly crash more above 10% if true about refunding with t Gox fund to creditor, I think OP need to make clarify what he wrote because an issues Mt Gox Upcoming release of funds to its creditors is not all true. Have another respond from one of Mt Gox team said they not preparing for refunding btc assets to creditor. Looks last several day when this issues publishing make many people worry and panic until bitcoin crash few percent. I think not easy talking about refunding exactly with bitcoin have reach most higher price than first cases happened. Maybe waiting official announcement for Mt Gox member for getting back their fund with bitcoin assets.

Another email has been sent out by mtgox. This time pushing the date to register your claim back to March 10th. They’re also pushing back the date for early distributions back from July 31st to September 30th. This ends speculation about a next summer distribution and makes it so that next winter will be the earliest possible date to recover mtgox coins. There’s still plenty of time for this to get pushed back again, but it is feeling like a distribution before the end of 2023 is still a possibility.