Bitcoin Forum

 September seems to be an unfriendly month for Bitcoin as investors and holders alike tend to lock their profits ahead of the year's ending to avoid unpleasant news from it's crippling effect. Statistics show for past years in this month how the prices tend to experience a worsening nosedive than other months. Although in June, Bitcoin remained at the benchmark of $17.500

https://i.ibb.co/bzJxxq6/f2585ced-dc6b-4472-b9b2-fa2a47e17a98.png (https://ibb.co/724HH8S)

And surprisingly, the poor record of Bitcoin for Sept tallies with the decline experienced in the stock market. For instance, the statistics shown for the US S&P 500 average downturn for Sept is 0.7% for the last 25 years.

https://i.ibb.co/d76wN92/658c5b25-f3c1-4588-8876-126bd5c644be.png (https://ibb.co/TrRxQX8)

With a previous record of failure, can investors and hodlers alike still hold instead of closing their stock or is this year going to be different since BTC is trading at $21,406 as at the time of writing.
  https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-september-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-potentially-ugly-month-for-bitcoin-price

You are making the common mistake of only looking at part of the market and not the whole picture. Each time there is a drop, there has to be something going on. Either a huge rise that happened before the drop or an ongoing downtrend of a bear market.

Take 2021 for example. In July and August price goes up 79% ($29k to $52k) and then in September there is a drop.
Same with 2020.
This is also why in both 2015 and 2016 price is actually going up because the drop already happened and that is the time for recovery.

I'd say 2022 looks more like 2015/2016 considering that the market already crashed and it is time for recovery.

The only reason for any possible future drops could be the fact that people have been brainwashed in recent years to think that whenever US economy falls apart, they should panic sell their bitcoins instead of buying it as the only existing hedge against inflation.
And US economy is falling apart these days...

Let me start by saying the more we look at times, the lesser we see, this is why I don't search too deeply on the things that pertain to Bitcoin and other markets because some economic reviews and statistics could confuse us, or just be a distraction. Without wasting time, four factors are to be watched for this September which is as follows;

1. Inflation figures
2. Market sentiment
3  Ethereum Merge
4. Other unexpected news

I mentioned Ethereum merge because its news helped cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin to rise in July. Who knows what its realization in September could be?

The price of Bitcoin today was greatly affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, so you never can tell the outcome of Bitcoin for the month of September till then, because looking at the chart it clearly shows September has never been favourable for Bitcoin because of one reason or another, but for me, I strongly believe this year there is going to be a difference, because Bitcoin has been bearish for quite some time now, and the month of September may look promising, if only there is no global economic crisis.

You can get the Bitcoin Monthly Return from https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

It is historic data from past years. This year, it can be repeated or will be different. If you feel it will be repeated, you can exit your position and wait for lower price. It helps you to be safe in total fiat or stable coin value you have.

If you want to bet that this year will be different, hold your Bitcoin.

No approach is perfect, exit or hold, choose one and accept risk.

If the price of Bitcoin can maintain the current price not to go down more than $20k in this month of August, showed that September will be a month Bitcoin users will never forget in the community when the price hit $60k. I don't think, there will be economy crisis anymore because many governments has created many platform to help their citizens not to experience what happened during the pandemic some years ago in the global economy. September will be more better than this month because the price will definitely move fast in September for people to have hope that the price will reach $65k or $70k before the end of the year.

 i think there are more economicle things around recent dump. september is a bearish month as we all know. but with the rate hikes and recent decision of  QT is the most effective reason this dump. anyone who dont know about QT i will put a link below for educate about QT.

https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478 (https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478)

it's just a record from previous history when you look at last year in september it fell just a few percent as well as now, but look after that in october it experienced an increase that was more than a decrease in september so people will throw it away once again to give the opportunity buyers to buy low now and enjoy short term gains by the end of the year, so it doesn't look like we're going to have such a long decline this month

People always tend to look for patterns on a market that is not strictly governed with such. The more we try to look for these things and magnify it to make a point, the more we are lead to making bad choices because of the 'patterns' we produce. Maybe try to look for reasons why the upcoming month is already looming with reds? Is it because of other movements on other markets? Governments on different policies that may affect crypto? Because one thing's for sure, those things that I mentioned may be the reason, and not because a pattern has been established and traders automatically agree to it all of a sudden.

There is nothing like the September effect and you theory to it isn't factual. Although last year and few years before that there has been drop. But if we are taking history to make a conclusive judgement then in 2017 a very important year for bitcoin we would see at September bitcoin was at a steady rising stage, as at September 2017 Bitcoin was less than $5k but during the month of September it manage to maintain a figure to to far from what it started and carried in on into the next month, and there has been some similarities in subsequent year.

I won't say September has been a bullish month for Bitcoin looking down history but it hasn't been a month we saw a drastic fall in The price of bitcoin and probably this year would be same.

I dont really believe that much when it  comes to some patterns or histories which comparing up the present or future into it but its not really that bad to take up some consideration on looking to have at least the

idea on how the price had been behaving in between years but doesnt mean that it would really be doing just as the same on the next year.For now we are almost ending this month of August which
do ends up on being bear and high probability that this would continue on next month but nothing is assured.We arent able to make out some changes in movement if we dont see any
sentiment that would affect the market or some catalyst but lets see on how it would really be started up.

Highlighting the data in this way will give wrong results because the rate of change from one month to another is misleading, as the price increase in one month will affect the next month and so on, perhaps the average of several months will be appropriate, or stripping the price of the effect of the latest results.

In general, we can say that the last months of the year are generally better, and there are no more details about the rest of the months.

Looking at the war in Ukraine and Bitcoin, although we all know that Ukraine was planning on adoption of Cryptocurrency before the war but we can just conclude that the Russia Ukraine war was responsible for the massive fallout of Bitcoin price. The market is programmed in a way that it will always goes up and down to balance price momentum.

The fall of Bitcoin price had already started before the Russian Ukrainian war and I think the war might have made many investors especially the residents in the affected region to have sold part of their holdings to foot bills and other necessity. We can't proudly admit that the price of Bitcoin was after by the war. The war may contribution but should not be the sole reason.

Now more than any other time Crypto/Bitcoin market is following US stock market movement, so I'm not sure older records on which month is better or worth for Bitcoin is going to mean that much, particularly records before March 2020 as that was the time Covid started to cause a big dump in US market and Bitcoin started following SPX chart almost candle by candle since then with some small exceptions here and there.

I believe until Bitcoin shows some sign of decoupling from stocks we have to follow the US market, the printings, rate hikes and anything that can positively or negatively affect US market and subsequently whole cryptocurency market, I'm hoping for a decoupling at some point personally.

You are right but I was thinking when I heard the news about Powel and the Fed this week, which caused the markets to fall, that going into a traditionally bearish month with the current economic situation it doesn't seem likely to bring us much joy.

The pattern can be broken but it doesn't look like it will be this September.

Yes, I also read the news recently and it is possible that this was triggered by Fed Governor Jerome Powell's comments about the premature easing of monetary policy too soon. And various factors besides the global crisis, wars also affect the crypto or bitcoin market.
looks like September will be a good month to make a purchase, I don't really care about the previous bitcoin data or trail as it all happens due to various factors with different occurrences every month and year.

Think of it this way:

September is like Black Friday for bitcoin and some other cryptos. Massive discount on the price. It's too bad people don't see it that way; all the advertising in the world for "30% off Bitcoin price" is still going to leave people unconvinced ::)

https://iili.io/45ADmB.jpg (https://freeimage.host/i/45ADmB)

https://twitter.com/jodiehobbes/status/1563787327511662593?s=21&t=M6Ws3MzHjRB8sIYvp-pUkw

There are people who lose money in Bitcoin falls and who will get richer by buying dips.

What you say is about the second people type who are ready to buy dips. They prepare money to buy dips, accumulate more Bitcoin. The first type are people who long Bitcoin with leverage, or have loan to buy Bitcoin. If it falls, they would be panic selling. They are losers.

Another loser type is people who believe Bitcoin will fall in September and open short positions. If short squeeze happens, they lose money.

Certain movements can be predicted by looking at past periods, but this isn't always the case. There are many factors that affect the market and as others have stated it's necessary to look at the big picture.
Since I don't trade daily, even if September goes red, it won't affect me much, in fact it will be useful for me because I can buy more coins. After all, although we don't know the exact time, we know that the market will return to the bull market again. I'm not very hopeful for September. I don't expect a rise, but there won't big falls either. Bitcoin is stronger than before. The data of the past ten years will turn into a different data as time goes on.

Last month end of years usually always unfriendly for bitcoin and altcoin holder, have chance for bitcoin going dump again after drop under $20,000 right now. I think not only with September but also until December of this year will give little bad effect for cryptocurrency price. Bitcoin keep dominance with lower price and have several bad news make investor are panic for selling assets with lower price. Hope have magician actually with bad reputation at the end of year bitcoin price always drop ans we can see another positive impact with bitcoin can reach higher price again.

FED news is crippling Bitcoin growth since it collapse from ATH but I think the circlating FUD about Mt Gox fuel the current downtrend since there’s a rumor recently that Mt Gox is already distributing 140,000BTC to there customer and this is a coordinated fud by twitter influencers to create fear to the market. I think Bitcoin will start to recover at the first week of September since the news was already confirmed hoax by Mt Gox.

Bitcoin price is still on the major support price and still holding even with many fuds circulating around. I think this is a good sign that Bitcoin bulls is still fighting against this bear market. I really feel that September will gonna show opposite result.

I will sleep with my bag in a cave for 6 months. That's all i can do now. The current market condition is unpredictable. Best to hold for as long term.

Many analysts argue that September is the worst month in Bitcoin's history and this is clearly visible in the chart below. But also April and May have usually been good months, which this year turned out to be the worst scenario ever. So I think that September could have the opposite effect.

Well September hasn't even started yet and we can see bitcoin decline in price. Who knows what's gonna happen next.
It's not necessary that it's because of the month but there are certain things happening that act as a catalyst towards the price decline.
I guess it would be best to HODL and wait for bitcoin to bottom out completely. I guess we will have to wait until the end of the year to see if things are going in a positive direction or not.

This is the right thing to do.  Its like we need to calm and wait for the right moment once again.  Its not every year we should experience a bull season effect but thats how we should keep tight and remain intact when it comes to our asset.  Yes its kinda frustrating but we cant do as the whole economy is dragging the crypto market on their bull shit inflation.

One major determining factor here I'm curiously looking at that could affect the price of Bitcoin in the month of September is the Fed ,If the Fed continues its decision in rolling off its balance sheet, Basically the collapse of the supply side. We will likely be getting a repeat of what happened in the month of September during the previous years market and coupled with the fact that we are already in the bear market I do think will definitely make it more possible for the further drop in the price of Bitcoin in the month of September.

There are bad months and of course there are good months. August - September was dominated by a bear market and this situation brought bitcoin to fall. this is also due to the current spread of several Fuds so that the market situation is increasingly unstable. To reach the new ATH it will need to drop enough to take Bitcoin to new peaks. Even though this is the worst case scenario and has the opposite effect from before, we still have to manage our assets and take advantage of this opportunity to buy cheaper.

The stock market is already pulling down right now and also the crypto market . But there are other reasons for that. The US 10 year treasury yield is bouncing up hard above 3% and that also led  the US dollar running up to A 20 year high, now very bullish you can check it out on the DOLLAR INDEX Chart and that have been pulling the market down. So if we want Stocks and Crypto Rebound, then Dollars has to drop down.

I don't see a pattern here at all. To me it's all trying to force a pattern to a set of data where everybody can see their own thing.

Just look at it. You  have months that are 50% good and 50% bad like May, you have months that are mostly bad like March and you have months that are mostly good like July. Does it say anything about the future? No it does not because a month can be extremely good and then continuously bad like March. You had +172% and then for the next 5 years in a row it was bad. In September we had 5 bad years in a row, which doesn't say this year will be bad.

Also, what's a good month? February 2022 is a green month but really it isn't. The price recovered from an enormous drop from 68k to 32k - more than 50% of losses and then had a mere 12% dead cat bounce. It's green on the charts but it's not a good month because most investors are at a loss at this point anyway.

Do you reckon prices will go up because of Ethereum merge?

It seems the negative sentiment of the market in September is a spillover or a continuation of the effects of the ghost month which is August. Although I don't really give too much significance to such kind of pattern, there are a number of people who make trade decisions based on it. September for example is not always red. But since many Septembers were red in the past, people would find a pattern where there is actually none and it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Whenever shitcoins create a hype to pump their prices (like this hard fork), the pump occurs BEFORE the hype ends not after it. In other words the ETH pump should happen before the hard fork and then end either days before the fork itself or right as it is taking place.
Looking at the charts it looks like they already pumped this shitcoin in the first 2 weeks of August and the pump seems to be already over since the dumping began already.

Such pump and dumps have no effects on anything else, least of which bitcoin price!

I think, it will really help you to make a good income from your investment because the green light is not stable yet than to keep holding. If you look around what is happening in the crypto market, you will know that there is a big celebration ahead of those who will be patient with their long term holding in this season. I believe, before the end of September there will be massive move of Bitcoin price to alert investors, there is still hope of achieving a huge amount of money from Bitcoin investment before the end of this year 2022.

One strange thing someone told me about September was that it was seen as the "Birthday" month for many people, because a lot of babies are conceived during the December holidays when people are in a holiday mood...and 9 months later in September, the babies are born.

So, people have a lot of Birthday parties to arrange and presents to buy, so they have less money to spend on investments in September... compared to other months of the year.  ::)

September "could" be a bad month but if you check October has always been amazing right afterwards.
We had 30%+ returns multiple times and we had great returns aside from just 2 times. This is why we should realize that there are moments when we get in during September and get out in October and make a great profit. That is something we should be looking at, if the price drops, then we should buy some more, if the price doesn't fall... well still buy some more because nobody gets hurt from buying bitcoin and holding it.

If you sell after it drops then you will be hurt, but if you are going to sell after a crash then you shouldn't have bought it to begin with.

I am trying to see reason for the OP prediction. From the Op image I see that all the years of bitcoin market prices, September has recorded decrease always it is only 2015 and 2016 that it record small increase and seeing this year 2022 happening now. I came to understand and agreed with the OP. Last month to some extent bitcoin was some how stable. But from midweek from last week bitcoin price just drastically coming to again, so me too I am trying to believe that September is an Imber month for bitcoin. That is why history is good because it record what has happened to predict the present and the future. From the historical analysis, we came to see and understand that bitcoin market in September is always in a bad mode. Therefore, this will also be a signal to users of bitcoin to know what to do in every September. So that the users will not have heart attack. But let see if October will be a favourable month for the market

Ops you tend to get things wrong this way if you analyze the market with this kind of mentality and data, in the next coming weeks we are going to see a lot of recovery for Bitcoin even if US stock continues to fall Bitcoin is at a rebounding stage and with that a lot of uptrends is expected.

If you study the data of previous years correctly you will see that your pattern for analysis and the data you used may mislead you into more confusion about which direction to go either to buy or sell but I will advise we all hold and but more Bitcoin because the 200 weeks of winter are gone.

there is no best possible alternative that can be done at a time like this, where the situation is indeed not good and it is clear that it is still in a prolonged correction situation. So you are right, my friend, that the current situation is clearly difficult to predict and it is impossible to analyze properly, so it is possible that the analysts about September will not be the same and will be able to match their analysis.
the right time is to keep holding more and wait for the bull market to enter, and we don't know where to start.