Bitcoin Forum

Future trading is extremely risky.

This is just a trading discussion and not an advice for anyone to follow. If following it, use the amount of money you can afford to lose. But I think this could be profitable.

Assuming bitcoin is at $20000
Going 3x leverage in long position
That means the iquidation price would be around $14000

Noticing a strong support at $20000, the market is not that going dip further, but we have just entered into the month of September, we do not know what the price of bitcoin could be at some point in the days to come before the end of this month.

Assuming using $1000 for swing trading, but leverage 3x in long position, the liquidation price would be around $14000. Can bitcoin dip down below $14000?

What could be the maximum bitcoin price this month? I am thinking bitcoin could go up to $25000 again this month. What do you think?


The result, if bitcoin reach $25000, from $20000. if using $1000 as trading fund.
If bitcoin increased to $21000, the profit would be around $150
At $22000; the profit of $300
At $23000; the profit of $450
At $24000; the profit of $600
At $25000; the profit of $750

But if it is the other way, so it is the unrealized loss until liquidation at around $14000.

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I'm a bad trader. I can only pick the hype (missed the super hype though). Apart from that, in bear market, I look into bitcoin only. I'm accumulating bitcoin ever since BTC got down around $17k. Well, from my experience and thoughts, I think we won’t see any big pump now anymore while it's very likely to get down to $12k or even lower to $10k.
Having leverage position is huge risky. So, play it safely. I would rather buy $1000 worth of bitcoin instead of having leverage poaition. I never had this other than SXP on FTX when we were in a bull market.

Yes its quite risky. 3x leverage is a conservative I saw some with 50x to 100x and its movement could be way more profit but also a huge risk to being liquidated. $1k usd is a huge money, so thinking of using that on spot trading and risking it with potential multiplier on altcoins than a very dangerous approach of future trading.

First, you have a plan, this is what I like from traders, rather than gambling and thinking they are trading.

Second, you need the patience to actualize this and be sure of the right direction of Bitcoin before opting for this kind of plan. This will increase the chance of your winning.

Third, waiting for the liquidation of as much as $14,000 is a high risk for me. What I have learned in my trading career is to cut my losses short. This approach might eventually work, but another question that should be running through your mind is, what if it eventually hits $14,000? A huge loss would be incurred which is not wise as far as I am concerned.

Lastly, Bitcoin is still bearish in the long-term trend, and based on my weekly chart analysis, if $17625 is breached lower, it might reach around $10,000, which makes it riskier not to manage your trade better.

Future trading is very tempting to try but is full of risk because if we lose and don't close the trade immediately, we can lose a lot and can't recover it if we can't analyze it well. But even so, I'm always tempted to try it, and sometimes, I can benefit, even if not so much. When the market reverses direction, it is a good time to trade futures because sometimes the price can go up or down sharply and if our trade is in line with the course of the market, we can profit.

September month doesn't really look like it is particularly fantastic for bitcoin so I'm not expecting anything special to happen and trading with high expectations to increase leverage is risky. I expect price range to continue between $20k to $24k till we approach December proper.

It's hard to tell and the answer is not a definitive "no". The bear market may not be over yet, you may have to wait 1-2 months for that. Maybe even 3.
But you said it yourself: "Future trading is extremely risky".

It's quite a solid strategy, assuming you can part ways with $1k if things go south ofc. I personally can't do that due to my conditions, so I'd not do it and just focus on collecting more sats or spread it to different assets (alts, bonds, etc).

Going 3x is quite impossible as we are still in this bear condition, unlike during the bull market. It is not wrong about trying it and applying the strategy you have but aiming for such an amount seems to fail. However, what is most important is that we make some profit, not losses. At this bear condition, we're not looking more, having s mall profit like x1 is good enough to sustain and live in this current situation - were at least doing well.

The futures market is scary in terms of having no practice with money management. It's really hectic to manage if you cannot monitor it or verify the things needed to do when trading, like setting up different parameters.

• What trade would it be? - market or limit
• Trading Limit - amount of balance per trade
• Stop Limit - price in which you want to sell
• Leverage - for margin/futures trading

You would do many things, but the trick here is knowing how to handle it and accepting losses in the long run. It shouldn't always go to be unlimited, you have to take losses with losing trades, but the decision to see if that's only for the short term or not is hard. Determining if you will hold on or not is the challenge, so you should be firm about it.

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Look at the charts, if the resistance at $21514 is broken, it could go upwards.
If the candles break the $19132 support, it's definitely going to go lower.

https://i.imgur.com/sxYmR0X.png

A lot could happen. It's the decision to see the bigger picture that is the challenge.

Why? I do not think bitcoin would go below $17500 again, but anything can happen, even if bitcoin dip more further, it can never get to $10000. Even if bitcoin will decrease more further, it can't be below $15000. Before bitcoin decreased to $17500, $14000 is what we analyzed before in accordance to previous year volatility, but likely bitcoin may not get to $14000 if it decreased below $17500, unless microstrategy sell its holding.

For 50x leverage, the liquidation is $19600
For 100x leverage, liquidation price at $19800

Those are too risky. I can't go more than 10x leverage, and it has a special time I can do that, not frequent. I prefer to go on just 3x leverage.

I used $1000 for just to know what the PnL would be if the trading fund is $1000, never mind that. I stated it in the beginning that it is better to use the amount of money you can afford to lose. But my speculation is that bitcoin can not get to $14000 again.

But I believe that bitcoin would never reach $10000 again, ever. I understand what you are saying, but I believe as $20000 is a strong support, $17500 would be a stronger support.

Bitcoin "can never" reach $10,000? That is a strong sentence borne out of the misconception of how the market works. I do tell people that no one controls the market, we are just speculating, so we should not be so affirmative with our positions and ideas about the market. Anything can happen in the financial market, so we should get prepared for the expected and the unexpected no matter how trusting/confident we are with our trading analysis and views. The strongest support/resistance levels have been broken countless times in the past, so do you think such could not repeat in the case of Bitcoin even at the time that the monthly and weekly charts are clearly bearish?

That aside, my reply was borne out of the consideration for better planning by managing your trading account safely because the exposure is too much, not even with your direction. It will be fine if your speculation is right, but what if it is not right? That's where the wisdom of proper risk management comes in.

In other words, I believe you are risking too much with your plan.

Anything can happen in the market, we have noticed extremely volatile market countless number of times in the past, the last before the last one I could not forget was when bitcoin falled from $65000 to $30000 in few few days, and also when it falled from $48000 to $17500.

The $20000 that supposed to be a support is now a resistance, but we are in weekend, the weekdays would determine what would happen next, I expect bitcoin to get back to $20000 like on Monday, but anything could happen, and if it couldn't, there is possibility that the market is going down further, especially if the $19500 support is broken.

Never mind that I did not mention that people should still have collateral, I prefer to go 1x. If going 3x, definitely I have collateral that would make the position opened to be like 1x. Assuming I use $100 for 3x, having $200 as collateral is important, that would make the liquidation price to be difficult to attain by the market price.

About volatility, I could be wrong, but I do not use the extent of the last volatility for any calculation, in each halving cycle, bitcoin is becoming less volatile, I am expecting bitcoin not to dip far more than $17500 this time around. Like I have mentioned, we are only speculating, speculation can be wrong, but I have strong stance about this.

Yeah, I like your choice of leverage, using low leverage for this trade is the best, especially because we are battling the $20,000 level now and there are some fundamental events coming this month, the best example is Ethereum's The Merge, it will for sure affect Bitcoin market for me though.
Another thing is you can set your stop loss before your liquidation price, just put it to minimize your losses but make sure it's worth it from your target price. Use risk:reward ratio.

At this point it sounds like a good strategy. Also, if at all bitcoin price goes until 14000 you still have the option to add more funds to secure your funds from liquidation.
The chances of bitcoin going to 14000 are slim but as we all know, anything can happen in the crypto community.
But yeah, if bitcoin goes bullish then it will yield some nice profits from this strategy.

For this month? I believe not, unless there's a Black Swan.

What could that Black Swan possibly be? Perhaps something like Russia using nuclear weapons on Ukraine, starting a European War.


$28,000. It's SURGE-SEPTEMBER ser. 8)


Risking $1,000 to win $750? If you don't need your $1,000 for anything else, Buy and HODL. The next Bull Cycle will print like the Bull Cycle during 2015 - 2017. Remember this post.

You can think war could lead to the fall of bitcoin, but what if it leads to the rise of bitcoin, people can see bitcoin an alternative to bank. Although, I do not know what can during during war, but if mining is not affected, possibly the price if bitcoin may rise.

This is not about holding discussion. Because you are a day trader, does not mean you are not a swing traders. Also because you are a swing trader, that does not mean you are not holding or planing to hold. See this as a speculation about bitcoin price in September. We all know that all-time-high would one day come. Bull run by 2024 is coming, but this is not what this thread is all about.

a calculation that is always coveted of course, if it is true that bitcoin will achieve an increase in september according to the prediction by Oshosondy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2819049), but if it doesn't happen, of course it won't be a problem because it can be kept and waiting for developments in the following months when it will increase or at least according to the predicted prediction.

maybe if it doesn't match the prediction or even unwanted things happen where the price actually goes down, maybe it's just a loss of time and funds which ends up being stored longer. Of course, if it continues to decline, there may be an opportunity to continue to add more investment so that when there is an increase in the calculations that have been made, it will still happen as previously predicted, there will be no loss of time that has been made with the investment.

Political situations, economics, wars, natural disasters, pandemics, stock market conditions are some of the things that can affect the price of bitcoin in the market. The price can go up and down when the situation some of the points I mentioned above get worse, but on the other hand bitcoin also has the potential to go against the flow and go up more expensive.

I don't really know if your strategy can generate a decent return in the long term regardless of the risk, but to be honest some people have been very successful with their trading strategies. If you are confident in your strategy, go for it and avoid doubts. I'm sure your confidence will falter when the response you're expecting doesn't actually appear when you ask a question, so it's better to just do it and start small.

To minimize the risk, you should know how to trade properly and if you think futures is too risky, then you can always go to spot trading and plot your trading strategy there. This is cryptomarket, there is always risk on your every trade so choose what risk you can afford. $1K is already a big capital to start trading, don't be greedy and trade consistently, your profit will come once you already have good strategy, keep working on that.

There are certain methods like this that work very well when you are in a trending market. This is why many people got rich back in early 2020 and late 2021 because Bitcoin traded up hill the entire time.

So you would add to your profits and you would make a lot of money. However when the trend turned and when it got choppy like now those methods don’t work anymore.

Bitcoin reached half the price today as it got to $22680, but the daily chart is already indicating that bitcoin may not go further for now (never misunderstood me, we all know that the time for all-time-high is coming). I mean just for now. Maybe bitcoin price would still hit $25000, I do not know because indicators are indicating that there could be a mild downturn in a way bitcoin may not hit $23000 for now before the next price uptrend, but I can be very wrong.

You will do swing trades towards the upcoming trend. It was a significant bear market, then best to go towards the bull trend, make some profit and leave the market for a while.

Leveraging on 3x is very conservative like you've noted. It's almost like doing it the spot way. My thinking is embedded in the African saying – If one wants to eat frogs, one should eat the very rotund or plump ones so that one can thump one's chest when called a frog eater. If one wants to trade Futures, one should take the risk and not be lily-livered like a sissy. Lately, I'm beginning to develop interest in Futures trading. I play around 10x to 20x and it's not even of too much risk, provided there's always a SL to cushion any downside. Again, there's also that display window for liquidation level. So, it's not as if the risks are hidden.

The strategy still works and is useful, but the realized profits made by traders are lower than during the bitcoin hype throughout 2020 and 2021. The profit targets each trader wants to achieve vary widely, so it doesn't matter if $1K is the initial fund for a $100 profit. I believe the OP's strategy can still make a profit, but so far I haven't tried it.

The price is getting close to $23k and once it's there I think 24k and 25k is also going to be easy. If it didn't happen yet, it won't be a problem as long as the price stays above 20k and not dip below it as that might give him a lose already. Keep in mind that he isn't investing so his funds can get liquidated automatically when the price fall on the limits that he set but for the investors, they can always wait longer and they continue adding more coins to their stash.

We can only lose money here if not gained, but we should not add in the time that we spend. In case we didn't earn anything, the return of it is still a knowledge and experience.

Debatable, because European War with a possbility of nuclear weapons use would bring uncertainty to the markets, ALL markets including Bitcoin. If there was a pleb who truly believes that Bitcoin would not be affected by inflation, it's me, but I was wrong. Inflation brought uncertainty and bearishness towards the future.


I was merely suggesting something for OP, ser. Agree or disagree, take it or leave it.

It's truly gambling, BUT it's their money. If during the next bull market cycle happens in 2024, a small capital of $500 used for x3 to x5 leverage, and compounded and done with the correct rotation of trading profits from Bitcoin, to "acceptable/safer altcoins", to shitcoins. OP might find himself with more than $50,000 after the end of the cycle. That's if we assume that all of the trades are with "perfect timing". ::)

I don't understand why you are going to wait until the price reaches the liquidation level at which your loss will be $1000? After all, it is much easier to use a stop loss, which will help you save your deposit, limiting the loss to 2-3 percent. Margin trading without stop loss will definitely lead to the loss of the deposit.

The op have a nice leverage and with a liquidation price of $14,000, it will take almost impossible for the market to pull back to that amount even though we're in a bear market and Bitcoin price is unpredictable. But this strategy looks decent to me although with high risk and potential profits. If you have taken a close look at the Bitcoin market since the beginning of September, you would have noticed that Bitcoin has built a strong resistance at the 20k level even though that benchmark have been broken last week when Bitcoin pull below $20,000 but even with that Bitcoin reclaimed back it 20k position and even touched $22,000 plus last week.

We must always have the risk mindset and only trade what we can afford to lose, future trading is hard for beginners, and there can easily lose money which is why it is better to trade with a small amount of capital.

Patience is the key to success. And I think OP has that mindset and a reason why he never uses stop-loss to protect from losing but rather they take the risk and wait for the ATH to come. It is how he strategies his trading and he must stick to it just to prove and make it possible, it is somehow possible as I believe it. Yet, it really needs more time to reach. So I guess OP must wait for another month to achieve his target and he really needs to be strong and committed to what he is doing, otherwise he fails.

Because of Bitcoin's volatility, and because of the risk of x3 leverage, that's probably with an assumption that you have gotten very lucky and did a "perfect timing" on the trade. But as plebs, we have already known that these are not very easy trades to do. It's probably easier to do during a bull market, but with leverage, debatable. You're giving the exchanges an opportunity to liquidate you.

With the current trend in market it seems it will take a while for OP to get profits.
At the same time it is hard to say if bitcoin would be able to sustain it's price at $20k.
Bitcoin is falling to this price again and again and I fear that once this support is broken then the next support would be near $15k.

Open position has some kind of interest to pay the funding rate for that round. I’m sure OP will suffer a lot from this funding fee he maintain the open position for a long time although Bitcoin price can easily recover above 20k level once there’s already a momentum in the market. The recent CPI result fck up the crypto market on this current mess but still there’s a chance that there will a good opening candle on October since this month is always showing a good gains.

The opportunity is here again for many traders to add to their profits in the future if only they can embrace this opportunity to buy in this bear market and hold before the end of this year 2022 before they can supply to the bull market to make a passive profits. I think, this is a simple method many traders used to earn well in the future, which newbies can also apply it now by buy when the price is low in the market and hold to watch the market price until the price turn to bull before they can sell.

I experimented with swing trading for a while, but just on paper because I seldom ever risk real money on unproven tactics. I discovered that I lost more money than I made. Although I have had great success with trend following as a method of making money, day/swing trades are now too volatile for me to profit from.

This can be really profitable if you spot the trend and ride straight with it but if you unintentionally and luckily enter it you think that you are a professional because of the quick profit accumulation. This situation is a funny one, newbies that are lucky to ride the trend believe and expect it that way all the time but unfortunately the market is not this way because the next time may not be another lucky time. So yourself, you may have been lucky trading the trend, I have noticed that when you are new in trade, it present you that luck but continuing is not always sweet, then you don't need luck but working strategy .

luck will not come continuously, if we rely on luck then one day will fall. whether day trading or swing, both have their own characteristics. for beginners swing trading may be easier than day trading, and of course we have to practice a lot in order to have experience for the next trading base. it's best for us, besides daily trading and swing trading, we also make long-term investments, so that our sources of income can be arranged later when we can understand it

That was more intense and you can really feel the risk if you use real money and a reason why you should be careful with your decision, unlike what you have done - an experiment.

OP has the insights to achieve his goal, I know he thinks positively despite the situation. Likely, if you know how to position your trade and make it perfectly, that is certainly not possible to multiply his money. However, we can't expect that gonna happen nor do we rely on luck but with the use of TA and common instinct might it works well.

It is good not to be a trader than to be losing money, trading is not easy at all, it can be time consuming, consuming data, become stressful. Yet people are using their money to trade. If loses occur, not good at all after sacrificing such things and time. Best to just hold at times. If it is some traders, they may still open the position, and they would be losing by now. Although, trading can be profitable if certain things can be considered and if traders are not going beyond the tactics, but trading is very much risky.

That is why trading is not for everyone, but for those who are willing to take risks. Volatile market movements and bear market situations make
trading difficult. Moreover, we must take the time to monitor the market regularly and continue to improve our analytical skills, so that we can
make the right decisions. Trading is not as easy as imagined, I've only been trying to trade for several years, but the amount of loss I experienced
was still greater than the profit I made from trading. As you said if indeed we have sacrificed time and money then the results are not good.
Then it would be better to just focus on long-term investment in potential coins, it has lower risk and everyone can do that, most importantly
have patience. Therefore, for now, I prioritize long-term investment over trading.