Bitcoin Forum

Hi,

This is a 1D Timeframe chart of Bitcoin, you can see Bitcoin has recently retested the trendline.
If we take a horizontal line from previous low of Bitcoin i.e. $17.6k, 18th Oct '22 is a really important date.

Either Bitcoin breaks the trendline and fly high or we drop below our previous cycle bottom i.e. $17.6k
Days left for 18th Oct '22: 27 Days

Let me know what you think what's going to happen :)
https://i.imgur.com/Uu85qzq.png

The trendline diagram is a powerful trading tool and simple at the same time. I was surprised not to have seen it here until I started using it on the BTT. I hope the popularity will increase because many are solely relying on the indicators to trade. However, anyone using trendline should not use it alone, as many other confirmations are needed so that the trader will not look like a fool at times. What you had written might or mightn't happen, it is the market that has the final say. You didn't also write the breakout level of the trendline, so how are we supposed to know your breakout point to comment on whether it will or will not break the price?

As for me, my bias toward Bitcoin remains bearish this week. But this would be reversed if 20483.67 and 21818.75 are broken upward.

In trading view chart different timeframe of bitcoin market shows different sign of price action. I think all these is bit messy and can only be use for a short term trade. For a long term all this looks too much complicated.

What i believe is btc will test more bottom because miners still in profit. They will keep selling till btc price reaches their break even points of mining cost. Right now that price is around 13k and whale could take it further down to eliminate big future position. So my expectation is btc will probably test 10k or below that level once before gaining upper momentum.

I don't think at times like this we can speculate the market by analyzing the charts. There is a lot going on in the world that is significantly affecting the economy which in turn has caused panic in bitcoin market. On top of that we have a massive FUD campaign (most of it well funded too like the $5 million Ripple paid Greenpeace recently to spread FUD about bitcoin) and market manipulation (the obvious sell pressure where they keep dumping to break the supports).

Market has shown good potential for a big jump up and pushing it lower than $20k has proven to be extremely difficult. But if they don't run out of bitcoins to dump or not reach their maximum acceptable losses during this market manipulation we could see that support break and we could head towards $15k and lower too.

many experts have also said that Bearish will end in October, of course if you look at the chart you made,
indeed the Trendline until October is the determining support and resistance for Bitcoin,
yes we don't know whether Bitcoin will go up or even dump, because market sentiment is still very bad for bitcoin

Crypto winter is coming. It is not going to go up that easily. We could see a big accumulation zone from the whale and then a sudden dump to buy more from the last of the remaining diamond hands. In the bigger picture I am always bullish about bitcoin but this year it will be a hard one for BTC holders. I will not put in more money until the end of this year.

Good calculation, but it seems too simple to me. I think the sideways movement could easily continue. I don't believe in such simple triangles, especially as anyone can draw a similar triangle but with different peaks and dates can be different. But the fact that bitcoin is bumping the support line makes me think that we might really hit a new bottom soon.

We might see the reversal in November.
I don't think we'll continue with the bearish moment for a very long time this time around.
The same might happen as it happened in 2020 when bitcoin skyrocketed.

I think there's a possibility that we might see bitcoin around 45K$ before the year ends.

Hmm, and we are these experts though? Because if you look at bitcoin's past history and unless the cycle has change, then the bear market will continue up to 2023. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but that's what the market has been in the past.

So as far as October 18th, still 50/50, it might and might not happen. There could be some events that will invalidate this TA, or it could really be that we might see lower lows.

Hopefully, it really happens in November so we will get a surprise before the new year ;D
I can't predict how long the bearish moment will last in the market because the current conditions are far different from a few years ago.
There have been a lot of big players who bought bitcoins and sold them for big profits and I think in the current bearish moment, they can also get the moment to buy more bitcoins.
Many people would like to see the price of bitcoin be at a higher price than now or $45k and even higher but we still need to be patient because the end of the year is less than 3 months away.

The time frame chart and indicators are, of course, very important, but in my opinion, in light of the major events taking place in the world today, it is not possible to accurately predict the price because there are a lot of events taking place today that will definitely affect the price’s path. The major political events taking place today affect the economy in a bad way, and this will in turn reflect on the price of Bitcoin for sure, so given the current conditions I see that the trend will be mostly bearish.

For this extended time frame I would recommend weekly bars over daily to draw a conclusion on.    I do agree we are in the right area to challenge the downtrend but it wont be a singular event or day most likely weeks or a month to take place, back track confirm via any selling vs support then take off.   If we're aware we can be more bullish at that time, often there is no shortage of doubters after all this they might be the majority now.

Precisely. Even trendline can justify a plausible outcome, indeed it can be affected by market sentiment especially if we are in the midst of recession whereas more people are afraid that value on stocks and even crypto could go worse and the safest one to hold are fiat and stablecoins. Few days left on your trend timeline and could be something everyone is expected (hopefully something good maybe).

What I can see now is Bitcoin now seems to create resistance on the $20,000 level after we dropped on that earlier.
Before $20,000 is strong support but after it brokes, we saw a hard time for Bitcoin to regain it.

Trending from OP's chart seems to make sense here now as we saw how Bitcoin reacts especially on the resistance levels by these trendlines, I am waiting for Bitcoin to test again the $20,000 before the month will end.

looking at the Timeframe chart for this week we can see two possibilities for a big dump or vice versa but if the 2 Trendline lines up to October turn blue. then there is a possibility to determine support and resistance for Bitcoin the next will be better. but we don't know there will be news and what news in the world next??? because fundamental changes are the key to bitcoin prices in October

I agree, before everyone is shouting that $20k is our biggest support. And at some point, it's true as it holds from further going down. And when it went below that price, we will regain in back in just 24 hours.

But now, it's very different, we keep on sliding on that support line that it became the resistance. If we won't able to break that, then we might see a slide again as what the OP indicated.


I don't what to sound negative, but we might not test $20k at the end of the month. We could be around $18k-$19k, way below our previous all time high of 2017.

Always like that I miss little nuggets (however significant or not they may be) but 20 days left and nowhere nearer to an answer, even buyers seem intent on making sure we don't end an entire week below 20k.

Dollar actually hitting ATHs against pound seems to have provided some strength there, counter to what I'd imagined. Really have been taken aback by just how well correlated Bitcoin seems to be right now against stocks and forex.

it will continue like that playing in the near $20k area it won't be below $17k or $10k, they big whales won't allow that and the $20k price is already cheap in my opinion, the price will always stay near the $20k area, like $19k or $21k in the near future

First, you need to understand that the whales are not the major player in this current market and I also don't think you notice that despite the millions of Bitcoin bought by MicroStrategy it never shows any impact on the Bitcoin market price.
This is the situation of a bearish market. This doesn't mean the market won't experience some pump in price though but the chance of the market making 21 next month is slim even if it makes the market won't have the strength to maintain the price range.

Lol, I disagree with you, if you are a whale, you will rather buy cheap bitcoin, so yo wanted to see it goes down hard and then scope more for you.

So most likely they will allow the price to go down and hit another floor price. And even us ordinary investors, logically we wanted cheap bitcoin isn't it? Nevertheless, this is an interesting topic to follow and see if this will eventually happen or will get voided the soonest once we enter the month of October.

I dont think whales control the market but they make a splash and they have to avoid spiking the price while buying in, so invariably its done over a period of time usually along the lines of moving averages but also accounting for volume so as not to upset the market and use up the order book.   A big buyer (or seller) wants to avoid being front run by those knowing the buys are coming so I do think they buy into daily or weakness within a week with an eye on the monthly and wider time frame trajectory for BTC.
   I think 20k is likely fine long term to have and hold but as a small fry holder it does seem perhaps reasonable to wait for that breakout on the chart or just very much split up your buying, it might take another year to do anything particularly and we can see lower prices even if 20k is good, people always like to get more for their buck.

I don't think there's still a big dump that can occur because we already got loads of them last time but what can only happen these coming days or weeks would be big pumps because we haven't been to that for a long time now. There is no need for us to wait for the trendline to go to blue only to determine the support and resistance because we already know it.

Like the guy above you said, $20k is the old support but now it turned into a resistance level since the price only plays around between $18k and $19k. There will always be news but let's hope less negative news are going to be reported as they may bring a negative impact in crypto prices.

This trendline is bearish and it brings back memories of the 2018 break. Right now we got rumors of some large Credit Suisse bank going under. We got pension funds under risk of default. We still got strong employment which means inflation might tick higher again. We got a housing crisis and energy crisis.

I want it to break to the upside and I am not short but its not looking good. I think the yearly low will break if the stock market keeps dipping. Next week is employment numbers so this will give us a hint if the future CPI print will be positive or not.

When looking at charts, since the price is not going up it may look like a negative thing or even a bearish potential but you have to consider that price hasn't been going down in spite of all the negative things that are happening in the West and how its economy is crashing hard.
Inflation is rising fast and most other markets are dumping. A lot of companies declared insolvency and some factories shut down.

All of this and bitcoin has not yet seen another crash for months and stays close to $20k.

Let's take the reasons for the decline, all the reasons have occurred and all the variables that could lead to a price break have already occurred, and even news such as Mt. Gox coins, interest rates increase and others did not have the same effect, so it is illogical to decrease during this month.

But even so, what will drive the price to fly so high?

Sometimes bitcoin does not really go directly with the market sentiment or how economy has badly been hit, so anything can still be possible. At the inception of covid-19 in 2020 around February, that was when bitcoin started increasing against fears that it was suppose to start dropping as the currency were losing strength but bitcoin didn't follow the down trend of economic problems then people started investing more and the dynamics of the price changed. Another example is around early this year with the news of Tesla dumping bitcoin hodling, the price only checked from $30,000 to $28,000 and nothing serious happened. It doesn't really follow the economic challenges.

1D Timeframe Trendline:

Bitcoin already made a breakout and now retesting the resistance and converting it to support.
I am bullish so should you.  :D

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7th Oct, 2022 Update
https://i.imgur.com/cvPiMnM.png

Closer Look
https://i.imgur.com/dVwUPG2.png