Bitcoin Forum

In one of my posts, I wrote about how a new survey reported (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5417710.msg61150712#msg61150712) that, three-quarters(76%) of U.S. adults are delaying big purchases and reducing debts since they are worried about an impending economic downturn. Despite this consumers will spend more on Black Friday this year. According to a new survey of 3,006 shoppers by Emarsys  (https://emarsys.com/learn/blog/black-friday-making-the-most-of-the-big-day-duplicate-1/)revealed that one in five (21%) U.S. consumers will do most of their holiday shopping on Black Friday — with over a third (35%) increasing their spend from 2021. Isn't this surprising? Why is this so? The reason is because consumers are spending more discerningly to maximize the value they get for their spending. In short, value is the topmost thing on the minds of the consumers. Interesting findings, isn't it? Lemme know what you think? Are you spending more or less on Black Friday deals?

I will tell you why.

Nobody wants to believe that a recession is coming, even if billionaires/hedge fund managers and even actors warn them about it but no one listens to them (!). Even the FED(eral reserve) is sticking their nose in the ground.

But the thunderstorm is most likely to come next year - this year is finished anyway. It'll be like 2008 so do yourself a favor and instead of dumping a lot of money on Black Friday, save that money to buy Bitcoin while it's still available for cheap.

I will add one more point to answer why consumers are expected to spend money during black friday. Black Friday comes every year at a fixed time so more than 90% of the spendings are actually pre planned. People don't make impulsive buying choice during black friday. They obviously tend to buy more products if they get a good deal. But the sale is mostly driven by the pre planned purchases.

That's why you will possibly see a similar kind of buying interest from the retail consumers this year as well.

Recession coming doesn't mean that people will not jump at any opportunity to buy things at reduced cost. There's a hype with Black Friday deals, they make you believe that the prices are down, and you can get good deals that will be available for a short period. The pressure becomes real, and even if you were playing it safe before with your spending, you can easily forget about the economy and get some things during the Black Friday.

I am really surprise that even in the face of warning and doomsday predictions, people are still increasing their expenditure. Even if the spending is pre-planned, is not possible to make adjustment and cut these expenses. People prefer to be in debt than to cut their expenses through change of lifestyle. Like NotATether pointed out, people might not believe that recession is coming or they are finding it very difficult to cut their expenses because they are used to a particular lifestyle. I think most people in developing nations have started reducing their expenses because recession is already here.Maybe due to the sound economic policies of most developed nation, their citizens are still enjoying economic prosperity, so they still have more money to spend.

Why not? Everything becomes a lot cheaper on black Friday, you just can't ignore it. When you see a 50% discount, even if you have money, you just borrow it from somewhere else and buy that thing anyway. Impossible to ignore these opportunities.

Black Friday is where the merchants make the most sales. I always renew my hosting packages and domains during that time of the year and profiting almost by 50%. Buy whatever you can, you are not losing money, you are making money by buying stuff.

It is not really that surprising, since money is tight then people want to maximize the amount of things they can buy with the same amount of money, and they want to make use of the Black Friday to accomplish their goals, however I will not deny that I am worried, people recognize that things are not going well with the economy but they will still spend a little fortune during the holidays, money which could be better spent by buying bitcoin and other assets which can serve as a store of value.

Spending less or more, it wouldnt matter because whether these economic recessions or other related economic problems wont really be a totally shut off on those people who do really love to buy something specially on

these holidays or events.They do always have the money allocated for these times which you could really say that it is totally contrary on what people must do on time of recession.Money will surely come out even

they do know that they are really need to be that wise on spending up due to the current situation but as part of reality then things like this would really be just like a normal day.
We do always have that reserve when it comes to particular situation.

People are predictable, pretending to have none or really that too keen on spending on some needs but when sale comes then this is where they do really come out their savings. ;D

Items during black Friday are cheaper, and many will go take this opportunity to save some money. Some may buy only their needs while others can take this opportunity to buy what they want. Many are still spending their money within their budget and that’s fine even if there’s a threat of huge crisis as long as you can still have funds for your other needs, I see nothing wrong here. We can only know the effect of recession once we get there, many still don’t know what’s coming.

There is no explanation for the high demand for buying during Black Friday other than that the prices are very low. This has nothing to do with the economic situation of the country in general, but rather with individuals who seize the opportunity of Black Friday. In the end, not all people accept the purchase, whether on the occasion or without it.
Personally, I don't recall having acquired things on this occasion or perhaps because I am not a demanding person by nature.

Yes, people have been saving for this day to come so eventually if they will find good deal to buy, then they can maximize their purchase as much as they want. I guess that’s a human nature, when there are huge sale in all items, they will never let it pass. And besides, if they can go for early shopping this year with bargain prices, then they don’t have to go rush shopping when the holiday season comes.

In my experience Black Friday has just morphed into a day that retailers now exploit to the max, whereas when it first started you could find many genuine high quality promotions, now it is hard to find anything that has not been cynically planned to exploit clueless consumers. I remember picking up things like domain names for $1 or finding many excellent deals which saved money, when the consumer had the upperhand and retailers were still trying to join in the hype. Now it's like they jack the prices up a few months beforehand, specifically to drop them over this weekend and the customer does not get a special price at all. Sometimes prices can even be higher but marketed in very sly ways.

We all see it that the recession is coming, and then so what? If we are still able to budget some funds for this Black Friday, then no one can stop us really. Aside from its a good opportunity to buy at a low market price, it saves our time and money than just going to regular malls and avail their original high prices. So it’s certainly an individual’s preference. Even myself I am tempted to buy, but it also depends on how much extra money I have.

Eras of high inflation are the opposite of HODL economics. Everyone dumps their currency holdings as soon as possible, expecting the asset to decrease in value. If high inflation is on the way. It makes sense to buy as much as you can in the biggest sales of the year. To maximize purchasing power and stock up in the event of future shortages.

It will be interesting to see what the purchasing breakdown of black friday sales look like in 2022. Are consumers purchasing luxury items or focusing more on bare necessities. It would be gratifying if solar panels, guns, water filters, solar stoves and similar items were flying off the shelves as people prepare for economic worst case scenarios.

It has long been known that electronics and store bought items are purchased as inflation protection assets. The behavior was first noticed during greece's issues with debt when many exchanged their euros for big screen TVs expecting the EU to go bust.

Black friday have turned to be a day of celebration for the business, because people have the mentality we need to purchase on that particular day as there'll be huge discounts. For that reason people even spend on things that isn't truly necessary. It is good to spend on bitcoin limiting the unwanted expenses. The present market is quite good to buy little bit bitcoin as the price crash have taken place.

Everything is someway connected to money. It is us, who need to analyse different things as we're in a very critical economic situation where everything looks to be good which isn't the reality.

I think that many are just waiting for Black Friday to save on their purchases. Psychological reassurance that the product was bought at a cheaper price gives positive emotions and awareness of the correctness of one's actions. Although, of course, everything that you did not buy at the time of urgent need will remain an unnecessary purchase, even at a cheap price. They get used to good things very quickly, and it is almost impossible to wean them off. People do not want to think about bad things, and complete savings on everything can have a very detrimental effect on their physical well-being. Someone calms himself down with bitcoin deposits, and someone makes purchases of goods on Black Friday.

But for sure 2023, because you know...there was 2013,2014,2015, and it's really getting late!  :D


Surprising for who?
For the ones that have emerged from their toilet paper and tinfoil forts and dens and have just realized that the world hasn't ended?
What is surprising in seeing things happening continuously like this, have you watched the tourism numbers? Cancun broke all tourism records, and airports all over the world have done the same leaving behind 2019 numbers, the malls, the parks the restaurants are full, and it has been a pain in the ass to reserve a cabin with some friends for New year's Eve a month ago!!!

Just because a recession might be at the door because we have a 10% inflation it doesn't mean the world is stopping!
People need food, people need appliances, you need a laptop or a phone to post here and if that becomes outdated you do buy another one!

The economy and consumer spending doesn't stop because of a thing like this, it didn't stop in 2009, it didn't stop in ww2, and it's not going to stop now. Despite all the drama people still have money to spend, and if they decide they would want to take advantage of a bargain sale, it's pretty normal to see numbers increase!


Exactly, is fascinating how bitcoiners hop from my coins my bank my decision to the need to dictate to others what to do with their money!

 

Recession or not people will still spend on things they want. I see people spending even more this days maybe they have just come to settle for the adage "when there's life there is hope".


Moreover the rates of people spending on black Fridays is always increasing yearly maybe people have begin to plan towards it each year like leaving some items to this days to cut cost down. Or maybe people of the remotes area who hardly shop online are beginning to trust it more this days and it proportionally increases the purchase on black Friday.


Outta context!! I somehow notice discounts on black Fridays aren't low like other years, are they also wary of recession too?

Spending and buying stuffs that will make us happy and comfortable is human nature no matter the challenge our economy is going through. Black Friday is an opportunity for people to acquire their needs at a cheaper rate, it is a good plan due to the present inflation at hand you buy at max on a good price.

Last year's black Friday my cousin brought an iPhone of $350 at the rate of $35 imagine the discount rate. So many persons are patiently waiting for this year's Black Friday night.

I'm not sure, but when we say black Friday sale, most people will buy things, even if they don't know if they really need one on that day; it's a tradition for them to go to the mall and grab something. I'm sure this year's Black Friday sale was much quieter than last year's; on social media, there are a lot of videos of people storming the malls, grabbing items, and punching everyone; they're really feeling the economic pressure right now because even though the items are on sale, they're still not affordable, and it's better to spend the money you're supposed to spend on item sales in food.

Despite the crash in economy, shoppers still look forward to the Black Friday sales, It’s believed one is saving cost when shopping on Black Friday it’s a psychological thing because the prices aren’t actually discounted in all products, the prices are reduced by a little fraction yet shoppers wait patiently for months to buy on Black Friday. Another thing to note is Black Friday deals aren’t necessities or things that people really need, they are mostly gadgets and fashion items. For months before D-day a lot of shoppers already have a list of items they want to buy on Black Friday.

does it really surprise you? This is how the market is formed, this is how network players manipulate buyers. This is how consumers try to save money. This is a full-fledged example of an unreasonable, but prudent symbiosis :)
Producers - produce as much as possible in order to capture the market, drive out competitors, etc.
Retail chains - although getting a profit, and for them the number of buyers per day is a very important indicator!
But there is also a "third side of the coin" - a simple, primitive deception :)

When you know that once a year, many things will be sold at a discount of 30-50 and even 75%, this does not mean that the network or the manufacturer is selling at a loss! :) In any case, they will get theirs, even if a little less ... For we pay for everything! Those who go on sale :)

The meaning of this process, in fact, is the following - retailers, by the end of the season (do not apply only to clothing), accumulate large stocks of unsold goods. Because the manufacturer has a financial director who plans and says - so that we all eat, drink, live sweetly - we need to produce - 100500700 units of sneakers (it doesn’t matter), with our price of $ 15, taking into account all costs, premiums, fines.
The retailer has rented warehouses that are filled with LAST season products for a year. And the retailer can't make room for new collections, and has to pay huge sums in warehouse rent and stuff.
which exit ? CORRECT - sell at a 50% discount, fulfill the production and sales plans of the manufacturer, fulfill the sales indicators in retail, and .... where to put the stale leftovers so as not to pay for their storage and disposal ... Voila - and here we are, " consumers". Which with our own money we pay for the solution of FOREIGN problems :)

I'd like to see the actual numbers on how much consumers spend rather that polling data but in any event -- the economy is "down" in the sense that inflation is high, but the GDP numbers don't *yet* indicate a recession. Consumers generally won't presumptively react to a poor economy until it's already already has reached fruition, the market is reactionary with immediate proximity to economic events (you could tell people the economy is geared towards recession by Q2 2023 and they wouldn't adjust accordingly until Q2 2023).

Companies react the same way - they will usually wait until the economy is in such dire shape that they can't retain employees.

The world doesn't stop spending money during economic downturns, they only stop spending as much.

Sometimes people are aware that they don't need the stuff/goods, but they are difficult to avoid the desire to spend money when they are looking at discounts. Sure, discounts don't mean to drop drastically the prices of stuff/goods, mostly it is only a way to attract consumers by decreasing a bit the initial prices. However, if people still spend their money on Black Friday, we can assume that they are confident to survive during the recession. Or they may not really believe that the recession to happen. But it is also possible that the level of consumption of people today beats the realistic mind to prioritize more urgent things.

Specially when you are really that materialistic on which it is really hard to resist on buying something which you do able to see and do able to interest you.Its really hard to resist on things specially if you do know that you do have money to spent or have something on your pocket.You cant really stop people on not to buy on what they do have desired on their mind.
Doesnt matter if they would neglect or ignore other priorities as long they would be able to buy on something that they do like, then it should be fine.
This wont really be just limited on black friday but also in other holidays or events as well.

Unfortunately we live in a consumer economy where GDP is measured by how much is spent as opposed to how much is produced.  In turn, this contributes to why the economy and markets are viewed in myopic terms, i.e., focus on quarter to quarter as opposed to the long term.

Probably even cheaper since you wrote that post.  Woke up this morning and my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I checked bitcoin's price which at the time was somewhere around $17.5k--and as I write this, it's even lower.  I'm not sure if this is a dip being caused by the FTX/Binance fucking disaster or the start of something worse, but I have a feeling that you're right if you compare bitcoin to fiat.

And why do people do most of their shopping (as they claim to in the poll) on Black Friday?  I get that that's when you can get all the good bargains, but dealing with all of the lines in the stores and the crazy people and the chaos....ugh.  Anyway, we'll see what really happened once the numbers come in after the day itself.  People would indeed be smart to cut back on all the gift-giving, even if they're the most generous individuals on the face of the earth. 

I get the feeling that economic armageddon is coming, and you might be right about it being worse than 2008.  I remember that crash very well, and I didn't see it coming at all (probably because I was never into real estate).  Right now I think we all see it coming; it's just a matter of when and to what extent things collapse.  Good times.

Now we know the real reason on why they are delaying their purchases earlier. They do that because they are saving their money for a better deal and one of it would be the black Friday. This was a once a year event and stores would came up with big discounts. No wonder why many people are tempted to shop even if some of them are in tight budget.

As a consumer, it is true that we want more value with our money. It can be in the quality of the product and we don't mind paying more but some will pick up a cheap price but they often disregarded if the product that they bought is a quality one or not. This isn't wise because they will end up spending more.

I would assume online is the way to go? I mean sure black Friday does happen in shops as well and you can go in there and battle with people and try to get it. But if you look at amazon for example (and million other e-commerce websites) you could see that there are discounts there too, which means you could just stay at home and get stuff cheaper.

Considering the huge size of the online shopping world, there could be billions spent in a single day all around the world, just because things are cheaper, and nobody leaving their houses. Isn't that what we did during covid lockdown period? Just ordered things to our house, same logic I assume if you don't want that chaos.

I think that these surveys are very dubious and may even be created to influence public change at a time when the authorities just want to encourage ever-greater consumption, and what is more ideal than Black Friday or the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays. However, it does not seem to me that consumption (globally) could exceed the pandemic years when mass shopping was done online, although perhaps the US will be an exception despite inflation and all these layoffs that we have been reading about in recent days.

I personally will not spend a lot of money, and maybe I won't even spend anything if the discounts are not at least 30% or more on some things that I would like to buy. That's why I follow the prices now, because I know that the sellers manipulate the prices, raise them slightly upwards, and then they will offer discounts that will actually be much lower than what they will present to us.

This is more of an individual’s preference whether to avail the low and bargain prices or just ignore the sale happening. While some prefer not to make a purchase because they believe this will only break their budget, others have intentionally saved for this and when this time has finally come, they are all ready to buy and grab the chance while they can maximize their purchase even at a minimal budget.

We also don't know if the sample size truly represents the public's sentiments as they conducted only for shoppers.
Anyway, it is just a survey, it doesn't mean that will be the case here. The reality may deviate from this survey more or less.
When pandemic hit us, we realized our priorities and new preferences in our lifestyles. So it is understandable if the need of people also change.
A lot of people cut down their luxuries in life. And dedicate on what to do to survive in any crisis. Black Friday or Christmas, people will surely spend but is according to their own priorities.