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“Demographic shifts” can mean many things. The composition of a body of people—median age, ethnic makeup, and more—all fall into the category.

But in the context of the labor shortage that has gripped the world economy since the pandemic began, it has coincided with one of Elon Musk’s big worries: The world isn’t having enough babies.

He has previously said the world’s declining birth rate is “one of the biggest risks to civilization,” which will “crumble” if the world doesn’t have more children. Now two major employment websites, Indeed and Glassdoor, are looking forward to 2023’s workforce (and well beyond that) to predict whether the “demographic shifts” of the last few years will continue. In short, yes—and it means the labor shortage is here to stay for a while.

Using World Bank projections and analyzing employment trends across several countries, economists for both job sites found the number of people of working age (15 to 65) is set to decline in the coming years. That means hiring will be more difficult and workers will have more leverage over employers.

The decline in people of working age will partly stem from an aging population, the number of deaths exceeding births, and reduced immigration. For example, the U.S. and U.K.'s population growth will be driven solely by net migration. And in the U.K., deaths are projected to exceed births by 2025.

The U.S., U.K., France, and Canada are all projected to see their working-age population decline by more than 3% from 2026 to 2036.

Meanwhile, during that same period, Germany is projected to see a decline of more than 7%—driven by its aging population and migration trends that haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Additionally, the report said Japan’s demographic prospects are “particularly stark,” with its population forecasted to fall from 128 million in 2010 to below 100 million by 2050—and the share of those ages 65 and older will soar.

“Without sustained immigration, an increase in labor productivity, or a focus on attracting workers on the sidelines of the labor force, these countries simply won’t have enough workers to fill long-term demand for years to come,” Indeed and Glassdoor’s chief economist wrote in a foreword to the report.

So despite warnings of a looming recession, and a potential decline in “employers’ hiring appetites,” finding candidates will be a challenge—giving way for workers to demand higher pay, stronger benefits, and flexible schedules.

“In a moment like this, with so many headlines about layoffs, it perhaps feels a little bit weird to talk about long-term hiring challenges,” Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, told Bloomberg. “But the reality is, it is precisely in moments like this when it's easy to lose the trees for the forest. It’s easy to conflate the near-term cyclical with long-term structural challenges in the labor market.”

But a declining birth rate isn’t necessarily bad news despite the hiring challenges it may present. It’s often a sign of economic progress: Women have more opportunities to choose their own path in life, whether it’s prioritizing school, a career, or a life without children at all.

While some demographers worry alongside Musk that this could create a workforce crisis down the line, it doesn’t have to come to that if society adjusts properly. This may vary from country to country depending on their economies, but it's at least the case in the U.S., as Christine Percheski, associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University, told Insider last year, the country would need to make structural adjustments like creating new policies that accommodate changes in population size.

Besides—while U.S. birth rates hit a record low during the pandemic, a new study from the Economic Bureau of Research found that there was a COVID “baby bump” after all. Whether this will hold steady is unclear, but it shouldn’t matter for the workforce if we shift our mindsets to view a lack of labor as more of a new norm than a shortage and adjust accordingly.

That might begin with paying attention to employees’ changing wants and needs. They care more about a company’s culture and its diversity and inclusivity initiatives, the report found. So to stay competitive in a challenging labor market, employers have to keep up with workers’ demands.

“Beyond a competitive wage, offering employees top-notch benefits, positive, engaging company culture, and commitment to DEI initiatives will remain incredibly important to help win talent in a competitive and changing labor market,” the report said.



https://news.yahoo.com/world-baby-shortfall-bad-labor-190124685.html

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

As long as European society is democratic toward LGBT members, they should not expect an increase in the population.

As for Asian society, there has always been overpopulation and a high birth rate.

But most families in Africa can somehow afford to give birth and rise many children even in the face of economic hardship. It has been like this for many centuries and it would take a long time to change this population imbalance.   

In short, yes—and it means the labor shortage is here to stay for a while.

We are short of babies, dam that must be psychic assumption from Elon Musk. I think he does not understand each baby costs you food, money, health and living! From diaper changing to making him/her marry a right person it takes huge stuff from parents.  ::)

Dude does not even know there is part of world which is vulnerable to higher death rate due to hunger and no water and no proper authorities to provide substantial healthcare.

And he wants to grow the population even more?

I have seen him stating that “AI are far more dangerous than Nukes” and that mean automatic industry is gonna take peak soon. Where would the extra babies work?

Oh yeah right may be Mars.

In many countries, an increase in living standards leads to a decrease in the birth rate.  

People try to live for their own pleasure and have sex using condoms.  They eat delicious food, drink delicious drinks, buy expensive clothes and household appliances, attend theaters and concerts.  The uneducated poor have only one entertainment in life - to have sex without condoms.  Wealthier people in big cities have a million ways to entertain themselves.  

However, there are many different countries in the world and not all countries have a high standard of living.  There is also labor migration.  

People from poor depressed regions move to richer countries.

In my opinion, demographic problems are problems that can be solved, it is not fatal for humanity.

Re: The world’s baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years

The unsaid argument would appear to be one where predominantly european nations attempt to produce more children. To maintain a majority in the face of high immigration. Not knowing that many 3rd world countries have families that produce 10 to 20 children as an ideal standard. If residents of european descent nations could produce that many children, I think they could not afford to feed, school and clothe them. The strategy is flawed on a fundamental level.

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

A few words about what many do not like - automation and robotization of production. I often hear that "she is to blame for the fact that we were left without work." Today, automation in 99% replaces, not the most qualified, manual labor. Here's how the post above - about cutting blanks for shoes.
But people do not understand that this is a NATURAL process!
Mankind has already passed it a huge number of times. The first lifting machines - dampened the demand for primitive physical strength and a huge number of people. The first ICEs - replaced horse teams and removed almost completely a whole layer of the economy - horse breeding, forging, and others related to this process. That is what is happening now. But there are many people who, realizing the coming changes, have prepared - trained, invested, changed jobs ... No offense - but people more often choose the path of complaining and suffering about absolutely simple events and expected things, but they don’t want to do anything to change themselves, and don't suffer.

Perhaps in the future we will see that a slave system has been established on planet Earth.

At the same time, people (of the Homo sapiens type) became the new slave owners, and robots, bots and algorithms became slaves.

Such a social order may be aimed at the survival and development of mankind as a species.

For example, science and technology ..

For the development of scientific and technological progress, a huge number of scientists and engineers are needed. However, there are not enough smart and skilled professionals in these fields to research everything that needs to be studied and researched. But if every scientist and engineer has a million assistants - neural networks, artificial intelligence, robots, algorithms, bots, etc., then such a specialist will be able to increase his productivity a million times.

The situation is similar to an industrialist or a farmer.

Perhaps in the future we will see that a slave system has been established on planet Earth.  

At the same time, people (of the Homo sapiens type) became the new slave owners, and robots, bots and algorithms became slaves.  

Such a social order may be aimed at the survival and development of mankind as a species.  

For example, science and technology ..

For the development of scientific and technological progress, a huge number of scientists and engineers are needed.  However, there are not enough smart and skilled professionals in these fields to research everything that needs to be studied and researched.  But if every scientist and engineer has a million assistants - neural networks, artificial intelligence, robots, algorithms, bots, etc., then such a specialist will be able to increase his productivity a million times.  

The situation is similar with an industrialist or a farmer.

This is why many countries such as Canada are increasing immigration. Because it’s expensive having kids here, nobody is having them. If they are it’s usually 1 kid. Daycare and everything is so expensive nobody can afford kids.

The governments solution is to allow immigration. Which would solve the cheap labor issue but where will these people live? We got a bad housing situation in Canada. It will solve one problem and create another pretty much.

Slave system is not really "gone" if you ask me. I am gladfully out of the regular 9-5 work life, I live a great life. But, I see my friends and my friends are living a life that is bound by shackles of our economic system.

If you want to quit your job, which many still do, you have to face starvation and bankruptcy if you fail to find a job. That is why it's clear that we shouldn't really be focusing on doing anything crazy like quitting without finding a job but still some do. Others, people who are afraid that they can't find a job, ends up with a trouble such as working at a job they hate and spending 1/3 of their life just so they can survive.

Slave system is not really "gone" if you ask me. I am gladfully out of the regular 9-5 work life, I live a great life. But, I see my friends and my friends are living a life that is bound by shackles of our economic system.

If you want to quit your job, which many still do, you have to face starvation and bankruptcy if you fail to find a job. That is why it's clear that we shouldn't really be focusing on doing anything crazy like quitting without finding a job but still some do. Others, people who are afraid that they can't find a job, ends up with a trouble such as working at a job they hate and spending 1/3 of their life just so they can survive.

Some family programs that require 2 children in one family still have some limitations with that. On the other hand, their thinking has shifted because there are indeed some groups who consider children to be a nuisance and limit their space for movement. On the other hand, the child mortality rate is currently still low. influence that makes this even more difficult to control.

I seem to remember economic charts claiming average worker productivity has more than doubled from the 1950s to present day. If productivity continues to increase, the population and worker size needed to sustain construction, maintenance and development projects should shrink. On the opposite end of the spectrum, reports have claimed more than 50% of jobs are vulnerable to automation. People of today are caught somewhere in the middle of both trends. Not the most comfortable or stable place to be. And so perhaps begins the genesis of some of the future crisis we will face.

The unsaid argument would appear to be one where predominantly european nations attempt to produce more children. To maintain a majority in the face of high immigration. Not knowing that many 3rd world countries have families that produce 10 to 20 children as an ideal standard. If residents of european descent nations could produce that many children, I think they could not afford to feed, school and clothe them. The strategy is flawed on a fundamental level.

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

Yeah first we divide based on color, then we divided by religion, ethnicity and what not. Now here comes the era of riches and poorer. I think with the time we are going to see rich people moving at one corner of the world, building high security fence around it and passport will be given on the basis of how wealthy you are?

If you can't survive 10 babies at the same time then you can stay away from the get. Have only one kid to keep your generation going on. You can only do that in XYZ location on the earth. If you wan to be on ABC islands then come with good stash of money. ;D

What's going people, come on we can do better?