Bitcoin Forum

When people say that FTX was the worst thing that happened to crypto in the long time, maybe we should back up and get some perspective on that. Things were already messed up. As in comparison, total crypto marketcap was thriving during covid and recovered almost instantly to ATH after tesla dumped their crypto. But LUNA was the thing that broke everything. FTX was nothing compared to that.

Do Kwon is still on the run in Serbia (https://beincrypto.com/terra-co-founder-do-kwon-hiding-serbia-says-south-korean-authorities/) of all places, except he denies being on the run (https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1571197156907679745). I am guessing he chose Serbia because they don't have an extradition treaty with South Korea, but that seems pointless when he is internationally wanted by Interpol now. So it's a matter of time before he gets caught.

But while running, Do Kwon (https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1600677169721528320), Su Zhu (https://medium.com/the-capital/3-arrow-capital-co-funder-accuses-sbf-of-causing-the-luna-ust-collapse-2e5ea1d763dd) (founder of 3 arrow capital) are blaming SBF and even US Federal Prosecutors are investigating (https://bitcoinist.com/federal-prosecutors-probe-ftx-sbf-role-in-luna-ust/) SBH for his involvement in the UST crash.

Now i would like to very much like to blame Kwon for UST as he was warned several times about issues with it but he was just too arrogant and annoying to take the threat seriously.  But if SBF had anything to do with this, then not only is he blamed for FTX crash and bear run after that, but he just might be the man behind the WHOLE current crypto downfall.

https://i.imgur.com/mSUvTdf.png

We are still breathing though, yeah, we might be in a downfall but we can go over with this all together.

It just so happen that in every bearish trend, there could be a black swan and in this cycle it will have to be Do Kwon and then SBF. But what if we had another similar event next year? So are we going to blame the next guy?

My point is it's inevitable something will have to come, something that will push the market down (like Covid-19 in 2020). This time though it was SBF. Nevertheless, he wil be part of crypto's history moving forward.

The question I would like to ask you is, what are we going to do after we put it all together and figure out who is responsible? What are we going to do next? Can you imprison them, or will they return your property?

In my opinion, we should learn from those failures and take it as a lesson for ourselves. It would be better if we controlled our greed instead of blaming others, that way we would be able to avoid those damn traps in the future.

Investors themselves, but unintentionally. The market price is solely dependent with market demand which makes sense to say that if people are not interested, we may not expect for a high market value on cryptocurrencies. Then why are people seem not to be interested to invest? Probably factors which happened recently such as with undying ftx issue, exonomic related problems, wars and such. We do all just go through different circumstances as investors. We are all prone to that. Once there are positively related things towards this industry, it would reflect to the demand and eventually, the market price. So for now, wait for that thing to appear or occur.

Except we went up to ATH right in the middle of covid lockdowns. And i wouldn't brush this off as just another crypto thing.

The whole scene will look very different during next big bull. KYC will not be optional for much longer.

History is bound to repeat itself and this time regulators will come to make sure we don't have to learn from it.

So at least we should know what happened. Because this was very much on the different scale. We are in the spotlight of the world and there's less spectrum for freedom.

Bear markets always occur after the bull run, it's the cycle we know well in the crypto market. I'm not sure if someone really claimed it's SBF that cause this bear market but then this guy brought a massive drag. It's intentional as others see it.

While DoKwon seems to be really guilty, SBF is cleaning up the mess in the media like he is not guilty and Oleary the FTX spokesperson is about to back him up this Dec 14 hearing. It looks like SBF is going to freely walk away.

    In my analysis, the fall of luna and Ftx affected the crypto market equally. Then we all know that there are other reasons why the market falls apart from the luna and Ftx incident. And besides this, we also know that when there is a bear market that happens, there are real situations like this that are not expected in the market.

    And because of these events, we may have been affected, but we are still here and continue to fight and gamble in this industry, believing that we can still grow our capital in cryptocurrency, and we know that there is and still is a crypto to help ours to recover our lost capitals.

As far as I have seen in previous events, not a single event is fueling a bear run, but a series of events and their cumulative effect, like what one can opine from the images posted in the OP. So in every such trend, the aftermath is simple : nobody gets blamed and people forget because the bull market hits after a few months or so and they are happy again. Again when the bear market hits, they start their same complaints.

In the recent bear run of 2022-year end, I believe there will be some celebrity events happening and legal processes, but I doubt it will lead to anything fruitful for people who lost their money.

The reason I say this, is because the investors are themselves responsible for their actions and these could have been prevented by learning from events in the past namely MtGox and Luna or Bitconnect (for people of my era).

Even then the people who will make money from these events are those who treat these as numbers and not "events" - they use it to buy at the discount and will sell at the next high.

there have been a lot of theories and conspiracy with FTX so that must have influenced people to see him the bogey man in crypto while acting like the savior after bailing out blockfi, celsius and etc.

every body buys his image during that time but according to wallstreet journal, FTX or SBF was actively trying to depegged USDT (https://cointelegraph.com/news/sbf-tried-to-destabilize-crypto-market-to-save-ftx-report). that's one heck of a villain. although we hate USDT, what he did is something that will crumble the market. he could be doing more of this before this attempt.

None responsible for the bear run. Those bad events happened due to the human error that was wrongly calculated the output from what they have done. The bad news that happened so many times were making the situation even worst. I just wanna remind you that about the war that was also affecting the global economic. You have been pointing out some bad events that were greatly affecting the market but the bearish trend has been triggered by so many countries that got recessions and even some countries were collapse.

That must become the main thing that was triggering the hype to be done last year. There have been many people securing their assets instead of used it to invest in the commodities.

I think that must become one of main reason tho.

It's inevitable as someone said. The market was still bound to go down but it was just made worse by Luna and FTX. We may as well add the protracted war which continues to affect the global economy. BTC could be bouncing from $25K to $35K range if not for the two latest major events in crypto.

We were thriving through the COVID because things were really normal financial during the COVID. However, things started to escalate when they were around the end of COVID because by that time lot of money was wasted on stimulus packages without any second thought to the recovery of the same. They kept printing the money out of thin air and making everyone happy but they forgot to have contingency plan.

How did it affect the bitcoin? Well with the time things went out of hands, then people started realizing that they dont have money to live because they were either left alone in the lay offs or they had businesses which went down the road in the aftermath. So it was bad times and people started to withdraw all the money out of their savings as well as from the crypto space.

And then rest of the stuff as mentioned in your graph started to happen and here we are today! But party is still on, so let's hodl.

The bear season, in my opinion, is nobody's fault. Since the invention of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market has gone through innumerable bear runs, which have always been attributed to the global economy rather than anyone in particular. I wouldn't argue that the episode involving FXT and Luna is what started the bear run; rather, I'd say that it played a small role and occurred at an unfavorable time when the market was already a little uneasy. The bear season would still be in effect right now if the incident never took place.

The Luna and FXT event taught many investors a valuable lesson about not placing their reliance on cryptocurrencies. Before the market earns investors' faith, time must pass(bear season will take longer before is over)

Well chart i showed tells a different story. On the exact day UST depegged and crashed, the WHOLE crypto marketcap lost 117 billion in a week. And even more in the coming weeks. FTX was nothing compared to that. And speaking of power of one man, when elon denounced BTC and apparently telsa started selling crypto, whole crypto marketcap lost 182 billion in 9 days. Not even war in europe has affected crypto this fast. So i wouldn't say they had a small role.

Could you list those other events that affected on crypto at those same weeks i responded to JoyMarsha about?

If we can look at the chat when it was being announce that tesla not accepting bitcoin again and the price dropped down but it had another hard news with Luna scam this push down more from $25k and below $20k. I think it is natural with this time that price will rice and it will fall. If during the bear market and a bad news enter the market so you expect it to affect the price also because the bear trend will continue when news is badto the market.

I don't think LUNA broke everything. Do you think that if LUNA hadn't crashed, the market would have behaved differently and there would have been growth instead of decline? That's a big misconception. In 2023 even without the Terra and FTX crash everything would be bad, because the fundamentals for growth did not and still do not exist. Money is flowing out of the industry because economic instability, rising interest rates, rising unemployment, etc. are raging around the world. If Terra hadn't collapsed, something else would have happened, but a bear market under the kind of economic conditions that occurred in 2023 was inevitable.

So what's the point if we know about this?

Don't give a shit to Elon Musk and Tesla (rich person and company), UST (shitcoins), and CZ (centralized exchange). This mean if everyone are don't rely to rich people financial advice, don't invest on shitcoins and don't leave their coins on centralized exchanges, it wouldn't affect the market!

But most people never learn about this and still continue to trust those thing.

The market was down before FTX crash also and it just lighten up the fire as kerosene wiping out billion of dollars out of market as all coins crashed but the main question is have we not seen such bear runs in the past aslo? So why are we making it a big issue this time? If you are holding your bag wisely not all the shitcoins you don't need to worry and just need to hold long term to be in profitable situation again.

But if you blame someone particularly for this bear run I fear it's the whole market so there are ups and down which we need to cross so don't fall for such things and have patience for recovery.

I think you are beginning to notice the inconsistencies in their data concerning what is responsible. The truth is that the bull was completely in charge until it let the bear take charge for awhile. Now the bull is in charge again. Whatever the bear does won't have any effect, not even a car company dumping all its coins. The bull has all the power.

To be honest FTX happened when bitcoin was already at 18-19k levels, got up to 20-21k when people heard Binance may take over, and then crashed to 16k levels when that failed, but the price was at around 18k or so before that. Right now we are above 17k, which means we haven't fallen even 10% since that day, barely 5% to be fair, probably less.

This is a huge proof that, we dropped from 68k to this price, hence FTX can't be responsible for anything at all, all these other names, other companies, or ftx, nobody is responsible for it. Bear run started last year and whatever caused it was the reason and since then we are still feeling the waves of it, that's it.

Whether there are crashes of giant crypto project or not, there was going to be a bear market and we were already heading dip into it before the LUNA crash that fuelled it to go dipper than anyone expected. FTX also contributed to the elongated bear run as it cut short the market recovery the crypto was starting to embark on.

In short, the ongoing bear market is biting so hard because of the LUNA crash and the FTX fall. We're looking for a bull run which will precede the coming Bitcoin halving.

With fundamental analysis, we try to explain the relationship between price movements and market events, but sometimes things are more complicated than they seem. In these complex situations it can be difficult for fundamental analysis to provide the best solutions... I have always preferred to use technical analysis. Technical analysis, while not a purely mathematical method, helps to provide a clearer analysis of complex events. In fact, I call it almost mathematical, and therefore I am not very interested in the magazine events that happen in the market.

I believe the bear market is already present when Terra Luna collapsed.  A bear market is supposed to happen whether Terra Luna, FTX, or any other bankrupted company does not appear.  It is part of the cycle and is bound to happen.  So I do not think that we have to blame these people for the bear market, instead, we can blame them for the losses of thousands to millions of investors when their company shut down.

The situation was already bad before LUNA scam, due to FED increasing interest rates for investors in USA. On that moment I believe we entered the bearish market, with tons of money flying away from crypto environment. That was the initial cause, I think. Add it to crypto entrepreneurs dealing in a shady way and using customers' funds wrongly and then we have a completely messed bearish season.

Anyway, it was just a matter of time until LUNA, FTX, Celsius, Voyager and every other minor scams collapsed. If it didn't happen now, it would happen next year or so.

All that causes this problem to arise is that they are greedy to have more wealth but don't have a mature plan, so this doesn't work out as expected. And after this happened, many people panicked and wanted to save themselves from the crash before it happened, which also triggered the market to go down.

Everything has already happened and it seems we do not have to blame anyone now and just wait for things to get back to normal again. People nowadays should be very careful to invest in any project and not be easily lured by offers to make future profits.

Investors and the project owners.

This year, we didn't see any good thing about the market. All we saw is a bunch of negative events that affected the market thus, the bear market happened. LUNA crash, Axie Infinity scam, lots of hacks, the recent FTX drama etc. If there are some good things that happened in the crypto market, it isn't enough to cover up the negative things that happened.

The sentiment of the investors towards the negative things that happened in the crypto space is one of the main factors as to why we are in the bear market that's why investors are also the ones who are responsible for this bear market.

We can blame it all to LUNA but it's still around the whole market as well and to be honest something will happen anyways since it will not forever go up. People are anxious that they tried to take profit, breakeven or sold at lost, crypto market isn't just that confident in the long term if it's in bull run, it can only happen a short period.

I agree, the price drop started last year. The events that influenced the bitcoin price drop were not the cause of the bear market, they were the consequence. That is not to say that if Terra or FTX had not collapsed, there would not have been a bear market. There would have been, but probably not as strong or the fall would not have been so big. A bear market, if you look at the fundamental analysis, would have happened in any case, because the economy around the world is experiencing bad times.

The bear started when the price was not able to break the resistance and hit the peak, it became worst though because of negative news and yeah mishandling of many big projects. LUNA might be the start of the worst followed by the FTX, we have no more choice now but to deal with it and take necessary action which is to buy more. This bear seems to stay longer, which is a good opportunity to accumulate so don't forget to grab some.

But actually what causes a bear market is not those who are greedy for big profits or wealth.
We can see the market conditions far from a few years ago that indeed a bear market is bound to happen and it's not the fault of the investors who panicked and then withdrew all their money.
Everyone clearly has a fear of losing a sizable amount of money and I'm sure that you yourself are the same if the assets you hold experience a price collapse and you yourself invest in these assets with large amounts, you will definitely sell them as a whole to avoid losses and patterns I think every human being is different.

News create fear to the people that's why those investors who get afraid and rush to sell their assets when FTX scandal occurs. But eventhough that happen still this is good to us since we need to look at the brighter side since at the moment we can buy cheap crypto which we cannot do thay before due to price soaring high and chances to lose is big since the dump might come just like what we experience on 4th quarter of the year 2022.

If the investment was bitcoins, I wouldn't panic because I would be happy because the time to buy bitcoins had come and those were the big discounts I had to take advantage of. But many people are not ready for the coming bear market because they think they haven't made any profits before so they sell quickly before the price collapses. But if they can think for a long time that what they are doing is not always good for them, they will try to find other solutions. And when market conditions have changed, this has lured many investors to the crypto market. But they do not search for the right information so they buy many assets that can disappear after a bull market.

Yes, of course, if an investor has an understanding and understands about Bitcoin, he must do the same thing as what you said.
However, there are not a few investors who don't really understand Bitcoin and don't want to learn about it first.
They only act according to their hearts and minds without a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, those who invest following other people's advice are sure to lose in the future.
However, we cannot simply say that the collapse of crypto prices is entirely the fault of investors who do not have the knowledge to invest in crypto, because there are actually many factors that cause bear markets like what is happening right now.

The whole downfall is due to one or two reasons then I am super happy. If you notice that market had recovered significantly after the announcement of tesla about discontinuation of BTC payment. It means crypto market had beaten the influence of negativity triggered by Tesla. But, all other negative news came in bearish year which is the reason market is still struggling to neutralize those influencing power. But, I am very much sure about bouncing back by beating all these negative news in next few months but for a new ATH we may need to wait for more than 24 months probably.

It makes no sense to try to conclude who is responsible for bitcoin's drop, because without Luna or the crash of FTX, there would be other names. Don't forget that, after every bull cycle and hit ATH, bitcoin drops in price and crypto winter come, it's been proven in the past and this year was no exception. Instead of finding out who the culprit is, look at it and learn for the future, the market will repeat this. After a bull season comes a down season, and in a down season, there's always a reason to make the market worse.

There's always be a bad news that will trigger the bear market. It's just that the break down of LUNA was the main catalyst of this bear market. I remember before that crypto bans where the one contributed on the past bear market. Today we have seen companies that holds many bitcoin are being bankrupt, hacked and exploited. I believe that it is the trigger of the recent bear market. Though I personally expect something bad will happen after a long bull market, I somehow expect that it would be a devastative crash.

Crypto market was bullish since 2019 to 2021 but no one was complaining about crypto at that moment. But later when it started getting bearish, complaints started coming in slowly. But the current state of crypto would not have lasted long if not for Luna or FTX scams. But whatever position the market is in, it will recover again. Those who scam cryptocurrency, especially those who commit crimes like Do Kwon and Sam Bankman-Fried, will be punished. But crypto won't die. It will energizer after bearish. There is an expectation among crypto investors that crypto will turn again this year. No one will be able to keep it bearish as it cannot be raised artificially. Those who are large investors already trying to buy according to their ability.

Well i kinda agree. I also think that the whole events around Terra (Luna) also where a major incident within the crypto space, because it was also a major company which was also in the top 10 in terms of marketcap if i remember correctly that fell apart very fast. Now with the happenings around FTX people often forget about that because the FTX events are just more recent. I don't think though that the Terra incident had bigger impacts on the crypto world than the bankruptcy of FTX. Yes, the prices went down even more in terms of percentages when UST lost it's peg but the main reason for that is that the prices were higher back then obviously. So those two events are hard to compare in my opinion.

It is also important to remember that a bear market is not only represented by a drop on the overall price of all the assets of one specific market, it also comes with bankruptcies and all kind of scandals as well, so while in this bull market there has been nothing bigger than the crash of Luna and FTX, once a new bull market comes and goes and we are once again in a bear market the name of the projects disappearing will change and it could be BNB and BUSD or XRP and USDT, but you can be sure that some major projects will disappear at the time as well.

Before FTX, Others and Luna, the market is already in bear and I think a bear occurs naturally. There are no major reasons on why it happened although there are some things which can amplify it such as when weak people panics and sell after seeing the price crashing hard. Another thing would be the negative news or negative events and the fall of UST is the first one in this list, then followed by luna coin. Other big crypto companies like Three arrows capital are then following the trend.

The last to finish the list would be the collapse of FTX exchange. We shouldn't underestimate this one because the amount involved here are billions. All of these are going to be remembered forever due the amount of damage that they have caused.

What is happening with crypto especially Terra and FTX cannot be done by one person. It is likely that many parties were involved in it, it's just that the case has not been revealed. If any of them could be presented in court, of course all those involved would be exposed. But unfortunately, even the courts are difficult for us to believe in this matter. There is no open trial that can be witnessed by everyone. We are just waiting for the results of the trial conducted by them.

If my memory serves me correctly, then I am sure that the bear run was already on before the Do Kwon and SBF sagas. Though they further worsen the already bad situation, kinda adding salt to injuries.

But, i don't think the bear run where caused by these two alone, we are all part and parcel of it.

Investors who don't want to understand bitcoin and don't want to learn about it will not get a bigger profit because they will be confused to determine when they can buy and sell bitcoin. If so, they should change their minds and start learning how to invest in bitcoins so they can know when to invest, to be calm, and when to sell their bitcoins. The factor that caused the bear market today is that it was triggered by several negative news that appeared simultaneously and many media that reported bitcoin would not be able to survive so, making many people who were not ready panic. This condition was exacerbated by the many influencers who said to be prepared for the conditions that will be experienced by bitcoin.

Yes, your opinion this time has the same core as my thoughts and previous reviews.
Professional investors who have been involved in the investment world for a long time certainly have extensive knowledge, insights, strategies, experience and knowledge about crypto.
Indeed circulating Fud can affect a price of bitcoin, but you don't need to worry because a true big investor will not believe and be affected by circulating Fud. It is precisely those who have bitcoin assets with small amounts who experience panic and are consumed by Fud it is not clear.

In my opinion, I would say market downtrends (bears) are normal phenomena even in tradFi, especially the stock  market. But in Crypto, the whales are the major player in all of this. They allow their greed and selfishness to engulf them.

Let's not forget that central banks' actions (like raising interest rates) has added more fuel to the fire. A wounded global economy, has greatly depressed both crypto and stocks' market prices. How could we expect demand for crypto to increase when the economy's been going downhill at a very fast pace? Unless the Russo-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic ends, crypto won't be going anywhere soon.

I'd be a miracle if crypto market prices start to increase in the middle of a worldwide crisis. That would shift people's attention from Fiat right into crypto. And that's something mainstream governments don't want to happen anytime soon. I'm afraid it's going to be a long bear market before we see the light at the end of the tunnel. Who knows where crypto will be going in the future? Just my thoughts ;D

In general we all are responsible for the bearish trend. Who else gonna take the responsibility anyways. This is deeply connected cycle amongst everyone. Riches go crazy few times a year, they buy bulk they sell in bulk and give rise to those FOMO reactions.

This year, there were various aggregators for this reaction including the one in OP. Though bitcoin always gets up pretty quickly then also it remained dead cold this year due to one event after another kept coming pretty badly. This will definitely take lot of time to recover.

I don't agree with this statements, how could bunch of individuals with capital not more than just few thousands dollars should be responsible for current bearish that just honestly doesn't make sense, there are the charts up there that shows all the dumps where initially created from ruckus whether it's tesla and luna foundation, If any, it should be the ones that owns the company behind coins that has crashed like luna.

I believe it's definitely Do Kwon that's the main trigger of this bearish market, his coin crashed so bad it caused other coins to get the after effect even if indirectly related with luna that i'm sure had it not for luna many coins will still live unscathed till this days, luna is the main reason that the whole market is brought down to its lowest level.

The crypto market has been through bear markets many times, which is an inevitable cycle in the market. It is inevitable that bear markets always follow bull markets. No single event sparked a bear market, they just exacerbated the timing of the situation.

No one needs to be responsible, it’s just market behavior, whoever wants to be? Who can stand up and be responsible in what way?
It was originally a game, and the bear market will naturally turn into a bull market after a certain period of time. Everything is a law, and human beings are also the product of laws. We need to sum up experience in each transaction, gain experience points in this game, and then upgrade to become more powerful of players.

In general it's the whole market itself,

a. investors started to sell to get their profits in the bull run
b. speculators created FUD to pull the price
c. there are black swan events that will trigger more sell off
d. world events, like the war and other geo-political war

So we can't really control what's going to happen in this bear market, and all we can is face that fact and be ready for it.

What's the conclusion if you've know which one is responsible for the bear market, does you will kill them or put them on jail? you wouldn't and just continue your life. Every year there's will be a new case whether it will support the market or opposite, after all everyone need to accept it and this will depends on each holders does they will sell their coins or they will continue to hold the coins? For people who're already experienced, they will hold their Bitcoin and keep accumulating until the price surge.

Indeed. It's going to take quite a long time before everything goes back to normal. I'd take advantage of this opportunity to grow my stack of coins as much as possible. Once the bull market makes a comeback, prices will never be this cheap ever again. History has shown us that unfortunate events damaged crypto's reputation for a short period of time. But people eventually forget about the negative stuff, putting crypto in the spotlight again.

Just wait until central banks stop raising interest rates (especially The FED), for prices to go all the way to the moon. Who knows if we'll become the ones laughing at the end? Just my thoughts ;D

I think this is normal. If you sell your house or car, there may be some events that suddenly enter the off-season or peak season. There will also be an investment market. We should pay more attention to market conditions. Now it's just to see who can persist in this big environment. When they persist until spring comes, they will all be rewarded accordingly. Maybe in two years, people in this time period will become billionaires. And one person complained why he didn't keep his original intention and left the stage directly.

Because we are too crazy to believe that crypto will make us rich. But when the correction has come, we then started to blame others which in fact, we are also a contributor to the continuous price drop. It is somehow we don't see because we make ourselves right despite the fact that we are wrong. FUDs, FOMO, manipulations - these are nothing if we are focused on our doings but unfortunately, we got affected because we are too emotional.

A bear market is normal behavior in the crypto market, and it's not anyone's fault. The downward trend of the market in a bear market is also a normal phenomenon, and it is impossible to really predict and control what will happen. We should learn from these failures and control greed to avoid unnecessary losses.

It doesn't require memory, you can just take a look at the chart you quoted.


Of course cycles are normal, but they always have trigger points to launch them.
And this wasn't about prediction, this is the aftermath and fundamentals, not technical analysis; which ironically is be basis for the claim that bear market is normal like you said and possible to predict.