Bitcoin Forum

I Predicted $16k by EOY in April. Here we are now and I am worried if we are going to bounce back up or going to convert this long term support to resistance.

https://i.imgur.com/m2niox2.png
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/u3AjxvVT-BTC-EOY-Target/

Mmm, and you did all that not knowing Terra would happen in May and then FTX months after, so you probably benefited from quite a bit of that, I honestly don't think we'd have even touched 2017 ATH without those two, not that something else wouldn't have happened.

I think 16k's support at minimum -- though a lot of people, myself included, am somewhat perplexed that key numbers this week suggesting softer landings only resulted in a temporary attempt at 18k before settling down back to familiar 17k...

Bitcoin has always been pretty predictable when it comes to price and the four year cycle. I think the only anomaly this time around was FTX selling paper BTC and keeping the $100K+ bubble from happening. Hopefully the pattern continues this time around and we see $400K+ in 2025. The time for the bottom is behind us, so we’ll get to learn soon if things will resume their regular course or not.

Some people who are part of Bitcoin still don't believe in the four year cycle, foolish for them.
And for bottom, I think $13.6k will be the bottom of this cycle and next ATH is somewhere near $220k.

Let's see how it goes.

Good call mate, I'm just wondering though why I haven't seen you posted in the last couple of weeks?

Anyway, I think why other doesn't believed in a 4 year cycle because they think that there could be another super cycle, or 2 cycles split. But so far nothing of that theory surfaces this year, so still the 4 year cycle is going to be the norm for us.

Right now, we are already under 17k, and that means it is not really a shocking news that it could be 16k, but will it stay like that until April? I really doubt that. Anyone who has been in the crypto world would know that it is not something that stays stable all that much, it needs movement to make it worth anyone in the market to continue and as we all know there is a good chance that people could buy and sell to make it volatile again.

I guess even if it somehow ends up being 16k by April, it will probably have a lot of up and downs a lot and that should probably cause traders to make some money from it as well. Just a guess though, I might be wrong.

Did you actually read the thread or just making post because you want to get paid by your signature campaign?

I am one of the people who did not believe that we would see levels below $20,000 again, and I thought that if we touched the $19,000 levels, we would rebound quickly, thus the bottom is at some point around $21,000.

In general, and during this year, @ImThour has proven that he has good abilities for technical analysis, so his posts have good credibility for me, and I choose to agree with him here.

It's okay mate, I was also the one who thought $20-$22k (200 Weekly MA) is the actual bottom however I was not 100% sure if this analysis would work out but I was positive.

Much appreciated! Not everyone here believes in TA and that's alright.
Really looking forward for what actually will be bottom and next ATH.
Maybe in Nov 2025 we will get back to this post? :D

In 2019 first quarter, we had a sharp rise up to $15k level from the 2018's bottom of $3800. Similarly we could expect bounce back of bitcoin market from here onward which may lead to sideways conditions till the end of 2023. From these I am sceptical about being tied on the current levels till April of next year.

We have been into more than 12 months long bear market; so there are lesser possibilities about its persistence for another three months of time.

I believe in cycles, I just don't think they will anymore behave in the same way (I use the term amplitudes, to refer to the highs and lows as multiples of the previous cycle's highs/bottoms).

It was barely 200% for the current ATH (compared to the previous). 220k will be closer to 300%. I don't disagree, in fact am very open to amplitudes no longer following a pattern as this cycle has already invalidated one bottom pattern (that the current cycle's bottom will never be lower than the past cycle's ATH).

I'll try to be the devil's advocate here: is it a chance that you've shown us this prediction now because you may be afraid the price could go significantly higher (or lower?) until EOY and make your prediction become inaccurate/bad?  :D


Imho, according to the 4-years cycle the trend should have been reversed already and we should be in a recovery mode (slow, but still upwards).
But small variations are to be expected after all...

The more points of confirmation on a trend, the more likely its valid and to be respected in terms of reaction I think is the general rule.   I always thought April was more of a time event then end of year but both probably count.
   I think the general mood we've had of subdued price action and positive movement upwards and these possible sharper moves down so neutral to negative ongoing.  Till we properly break and hold a positive trend its best to be on guard even when we are above the more tradable averages like the weekly.   Right now we recovered slightly to regain the 2 day a slight glimmer but it doesnt take much for us to restart a trend as we've been acting similarly for so long; last check of the 50 day we rejected and came down quite hard on that.  The biggest clue is apparently to note the direction of averages like the 50 and 200 day, we are likely to get many false starts until those are both ascending even when meanwhile we might challenge and cross above them.

No offense but this was not something you could have predicted or can continue predicting based on charts (ie. broken clock and all that ;)). This is all affected by global economics and the more inflation grows while FED manipulated rates to decreasing hence causing recession, the more we are going to see an unrealistic sell pressure in bitcoin market.
Again the inflation-recession combo in US economy (that also affects most of the world's economy) is not something you could have speculated on by looking at bitcoin charts!

It is going to be the same in the future. The moment inflation stops growing and FED accepts the reality and stops manipulating interest rates, is the moment we can go back to realistic bitcoin prices and a realistic market again. Until then we are going to continue seeing a struggle to go back up.
I don't see any more drops though because the more rate increase by FED is not going to affect anything whatsoever.

Nobody should believe in the 4-year cycle from the start of 2022 considering nothing of this last cycle has been like the previous ones:
1. Not the same overall rise at all
2. No bubbles whatsoever
3. A big crash regardless of the lack of bubble
4. The bottom so far has been below previous cycle's ATH which is a first.

People who naively claim this is another cycle are only looking at 20% of the cycle ie. the crash and ignore literary every other aspects of the cycle! It's like saying apples and oranges are the same because they are both round :D

I think it has been a good model but really..  Careful now.  The '4 year cycle' will keep on working until it doesn't.  Don't use it as a crutch and be ready to adapt at any possible moment.

It could be just like the rainbow chart.  In case you didn't know, have you guys seen what happened to the rainbow chart?  Yeah, apparently there's another version now because the first one stopped working.  :D 

Probably, but you have to still think though that we have the bitcoin block halving that occur every 4 years. And we have seen it as the catalyst for a eventual bull run. So for me the 4 year cycle will not work if we that bitcoin block halving will stop working as well as the start of the push to a new all time high.

And we all know that the block halving is designed by Satoshi to happen every 4 years, just saying.

Who knows it. I think that one of the key factor would be to see what will happen with Binance in the next weeks (it seems that it isn't clear like everyone thinks). So, one of the key factor will be this, another one will be

to see how global market will go, so, it is impossible to predict it. In my opinion, we'll have another winter year, then we'll see something of really cool.

Theirs nothing like the four years rotation of Bitcoin before the price will encroach to bullish season, those things is misconception of understanding and also an assumption in cryptocurrency kingdom, so i believe that Bitcoin happened to rise when it have a lot of domination of people who buy and sell of cryptocurrency, so therefore bitcoin is a currency that we know that can kick of bullish any time because of the demand snd supplies in the market, the market determines the bull run of bitcoin.

This is why its really hard to make out some conclusions basing into that 4 year cycle or whatsoever, yes we could really make out some patterns basing up on what happened in the past but doesnt mean that it

would really be happening again in the  future too.There's no way to determine on what would be the demand on a certain period or particular time which it is really hard to point out because anytime it could really
kick in and of course with some engagement or in involved with whales too which makes things even more harder to make out predictions and this what makes really totally random or unpredictable.
If OP did predict about 16k in April then it wasnt still precise nor been able to hit up the market or could claim that he was right. Lots of news and events did really happen into this market on 1 year
time or span which its one of the contributors on why we are seeing these numbers now.

Some people use an old occurrence of bitcoin price to judge and stamped that it's a regular ways of Bitcoin circulation of price, so it's not dominate or a repeated factor from my observation in cryptocurrency, so i believe that whenever their is revolution or resolution of bitcoin price, it's not will happen to reoccurrence to particular point in time from my perspective.

The OP got lucky with his prediction, but if such prediction didn't happen, I don't think he will be posting again his graph.
What I am trying to convey is, in this market, we can always speculate, however, we have no assurance that such prediction will happen in the future.
We have our analyses and indicators, but most of the time, those are not enough as some twists of events in the market are always possible.
If the OP knew that FTX failure is coming, he should have warned the community, but just like all of us, we got a surprise on this news.
The re-occurrence of such market trend is not always expected, we are lucky if it will happen again in our lifetime.

I didn't got lucky, I followed the macroeconomic situation in the world and knew Bitcoin will retest the long term support.
Nothing fancy here bud. :)

In April? When the price was still around $40,000? Really? Was it one prediction among many?

But yes you predicted it right. And although I would have hoped that your prediction fail, here we are with Bitcoin's price trying hard to hit $17,000. But there is still a little more than a week left before the year 2022 will come to its end. The price could still climb back to $18,000 or even a little higher. But all hope is probably gone now that the end of the year will have Bitcoin above $20,000.

Nice plan, I just watch your trading view. The support on weekly view I'm usually considering as the major support it very hard to broke this level and we should see the bounce back from here or if this support broke will see the price form new support at $11.8 K but I hope this wont happen

and i also curios are u trade on futures too?

Just because there's a halving every 4 years doesn't mean the 4 year cycle would go on forever.  If that were the case then all other coins that would have a halving every 4 years would also have a 4 year cycle that would go on forever?  It's much more than that. 

And what if BTC doesn't follow the same pattern after the next halving?  What then?  I'm not saying BTC won't trend up again but you guys are saying it under the wrong premise...  I've been saying 'whatever you do, don't look at the rainbow chart' but look how it is rn.

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart-v1/

I traded a short from $36k to $20k.
After that some more small trades with other Altcoins like UNI, LINK, BNB, Luna Short. I shorted $LUNA at $105 and took profit at $80.

4 years cycle if you look on the graph. Not just accurate on an specific date but Bitcoin does reset price trend every 4 years so I believe on that. Not exactly on the halving part but it’s what fuel the bull market for a stronger rally.

Altcoins is just following Bitcoin trend for a long time. Whatever happened to Bitcoin then same to altcoins. There’s some just exception when Bitcoin dominance is increasing.

Isn't it the same? 4 year halving and 4 year cycle? But no they won't go on forever but there will be a time where all the supply of btc have been mined out. A case that is happening in btc right now, won't possibly happen on any other coins because each of them are not the same. some Other coins can halved too but it wasn't exactly 4 years. It can be farther or shorter than that.

Those coins which supply is high, their halving period can also go a long way but it can't be forever because I believe all crytos can soon end. Nothing stays forever in this world. There may be times where btc move randomly and won't follow a pattern so it's always better to be versatile and have a plan-B.

Well not the exact same dates, but close enough. The halving was in 2016 and in 2020, whereas the biggest ATH we reached during those periods was in 2017 and 2021. Which goes to show you that it takes a year of going higher to make us reach that ATH price.

I obviously do care about the fact that we could buy before the halving and wait a bit more than a year and you could make a huge profit, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't end up with a big purchase anywhere during that year as well, it should be still giving us a big profit even if not the biggest. I am buying right now when it is the bear time, and in 2024 there will be a halving and by 2025 I would be in a lot of profit, that's my guess.

Macroeconomic situations will have more influence on market conditions, compared to just seeing the LUNA crash and most recently the FTX drama.
it is possible that all the drama and crash refer to macroeconomic conditions.
OP, you really have to put up with those who say it's just a prediction based on luck.
Making predictions is not easy and predictions will not be 100% correct and no one will guarantee them.
Maybe you can continue this prediction and what will happen later.

The price of bitcoin is difficult to guess so it becomes interesting if there is a guess and proven to be true, but if we want to focus on profit, I think Hold and be patient is the best key to get a big profit, don't panic with any situation, this is common so that we Have a chance for big profits in 2 or 3 years.


And as an investor who focuses on the long term, any price is not a problem for us to buy.

16k or similar level makes sense from peaks of 2019 I think more then a trend now especially.     We are just drifting sideways mostly, not pushed upwards or down and at present we lost the 2 day average while also the weekly average converges with this measure.
   More important is the long term volume from years such as 2019 hence why your April prediction was fair at the time for a bottom price rather then 20k which I dont think was ever properly traded by the majority of the market outside of exchange orders hence making it weak.

$400k by next 2 years is this a joke or what? Because merely looking at it, this year already ended and we haven't even smell or perceive $100k to $200k before that huge hope of getting to $400k, well let me not to be too sceptical otherwise have to be diplomatic about this because I know anything is possible and from historical chart (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/) we may achieve that amount but could possibly be 2026 to 2028.