Bitcoin Forum

Just stumbled on this article, the guy who wrote this article is probably high on Bitcoin because he just came from Africa Bitcoin Conference (https://www.afrobitcoin.org/)  in Ghana.


First we need to define what is speculation first:
speculation - the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain^[1]



Article Title: AFTER 2022, PURE BITCOIN SPECULATION IS NOW DEAD
Author: RAY YOUSSEF (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/authors/ray-youssef)

As the article stated:
This year was a turning point for Bitcoin and its community is now ready to cut the dead weight of price speculation.^[2]

And to support his claim, he presented these 5 factors that will support his ideals (quoting the explanation so that reader don't have the need to click out of the forum)

THE GLOBAL SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD BITCOIN ADOPTION

THE DIVIDE BETWEEN BITCOIN AND THE REST WILL GROW

GOVERNMENTS NEED A RETHINK

‘NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS’ WILL GET LOUDER

BEAR MARKETS WILL BUILD A STRONGER INDUSTRY

---

While reading the article, I am convinced that Pure Bitcoin Speculation is Dead by 2023.  With all the development and achievement of Bitcoin, it has set its ground to be one of the ever growing industry in the market.  It is not a speculation anymore that Bitcoin will be globally adopted.  We can have references as why Bitcoin will be adopted by countries in fact there is already a proof for it.

With the collapse of central exchanges and popular altcoin demise such as FTT, LUNA and many other altcoin hack, Bitcoin will continue to get the bigger part of the pie.  It also become stronger when ETH moved to POS.

With the current bear market, the longer the bear market stay the better the industry is filtered out.  So surviving this bear market will make Bitcoin even stronger.  

So yeah, people do not need to speculate about Bitcoin growth anymore because Bitcoin had already established a good foundation we just need to wait for the good result.

There is a chance that many of us does not share the same point of view as the writer, so what do you think?  Is pure Bitcoin speculation will be dead after 2022?

---

[1] https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/speculation
[2] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/in-2022-bitcoin-price-speculation-died

Nah Bitcoin price is still not steady, this year we're suffering around 40-50% price change. Although I know Bitcoin journey is very bright and there's many good news around it, but don't forget those good news has been started since 2017 where Bitcoin price reach $20K and this year El Salvador accept Bitcoin as legal tender. But does Bitcoin become a legal tender in El Salvador make Bitcoin price increase and reduce the volatility? nope.

So it's still really long to wait Bitcoin isn't a speculation asset anymore.

Someday bitcoin will actually be used for SoV/payments and not just solely for speculation — but I definitely don't think it's in 2023. If anything, it'll probably take more than a decade.

I also think 2023 is early period to say that bitcoin prices will not to volatile as we still see huge price fluctuations while we are ready to enter the 2023 with only few days remaining so OP do you believe it to happen this fast when the adoption is not wide spread? At this time people use it as investment purposes and whenever there is panic in market we see dumps and if good news then rise in prices but for it to stabilize it will take long then you said.

Price will always fluctuate, but there will be ground for it why it happens.  I believe Bitcoin isn't a pure speculation anymore.  Anything that will happen in Bitcoin in the future won't be a guessing game anymore because several Bitcoin enthusiasts has created a ground for Bitcoin to proliferate and add sense to the predictions may it be price or acceptance.

Moving out of speculative asset box does not mean the price will be stagnant.  Of course the market will move up and down but this time, I believe, it will be on cause and effect and not because of mere speculations of people.

bitcoin has value which slowly rises naturally and in a slow smooth amount.

the speculative market above value is volatile and no one can agree.. yep its speculative by its very definition.

some want pump and dumps due to greed of trying to harvest idiots that buy high so that greedy people can sell high for quick greedy profits.. others want speculation to stay at a minimum to stabilise the price, and just let value periodically rise over time.

well
we are no longer in the era of the 100x speculation bubbles
we are no longer in the era of the 20x speculation bubbles
2020-2021 had a 17x pump and now we just happens to be on the after effect of a 5x correction
which is still higher than 2020's amounts

tell me any other asset or investment which if you bought in at $4k in 2020. you could turn into $70k within just one year.. where people are then still unhappy about such an assets performance

This is not going to happen that easily or in such a short time. It will take years for a well separation between bitcoin and the shitcoins. More people are definitely figuring that out and we are on the right path but we should also not forget that the pump-and-dump nature of altcoins and the possibility of quick and big profit in there will continue to attract gamblers. This means we will continue seeing "altcoin companies" and lots of misinformation in the foreseeable future.

Well, FTX was not the first scam and we already know that with each similar collapse more people learn this but there still are going to be a large number of people who'd ignore it.

Speculation is about bitcoin price and market movements not the adoption. The adoption is on the growth path and you are right that more countries are going to accept bitcoin but the price is going to remain volatile and speculating about it will be hard.

Actually ETH is a good example proving what I said about people not going to give up shitcoins that easily. There are still so many bag holding all these shitcoins and participate in their pump and dumps. Just check their trading volume.

I'm sure that now this bear market is leading to think that Bitcoin will stabilize and will not be seen as an asset to speculate on but I'm not very sure about that.  First I expect that when this global situation eases the markets will unfreeze and slowly BTC will start to rise again leading speculators to pump up the price.  Unfortunately it is still too early to talk about stability and mass adoption, look what happened to El Salvador they pushed so hard with the marketing campaign but now the situation is not the best if even the population had started using it after less than a year many have stopped because it's a complicated technology and the state wallet didn't help.

Speculation (a.k.a. gambling) will never die.
Humans always think they are smarter and know better then the other guy and will try to profit from that.

Will people actually make money and be able to continue doing it is another question. But, it does not matter even if they all loose, that means others won and there will be the next group of people to speculate (a.k.a gamble) on BTC

You could probably make a case that there are people speculating on toothpaste futures.....

-Dave

Currencies are designed to be speculative due to the fact that they are constantly exchanged and as such heavily dependent on market determinants like demand and supply. Bitcoin as a currency is no different.

This of itself is still a speculation. You are projecting that bitcoin is definitely going to rise in value based on the current fundamentals of it and how much it has established itself, you are also speculating that it would not dip further beyond 2023 and it would only keep going up

- Jay -

I've read about Nigeria and it's an interesting case.

Their government saw an opportunity to launch their own CBDC probably after some lobbysts from the World Economic Forum wanted to make their country a test site for their population control.
They did exactly what the WEC plan was for the world: banned bitcoin and tried to substitute it with their centralized shitcoin but guess what, people opposed this. They were still using bitcoin despite the ban and refused to support a CBDC, so the government lifted the ban and decided not to launch a shitcoin.

I hope Nigeria works as an example for the rest of the world. Beware though, the battle has just begun. They centralized shitcoiners won't go down that easy.

Speculation isn't dead, it's just waiting for something. 2022 brought us several bad news, with the FTX debacle being the last one. BTC badly needs some positive news to go up again.

I think speculation will be part of the market, it could have been lessen though, but as we go to phases or cycle, speculation is still one of the bare bone of this market that's why it survived after more than a decade. And we could think it as positive or negative though, meaning in bear market it's bad, but we can take it positively if we continue to accumulate and buy cheap bitcoin and wait for the eventual bull run to make huge money because we 'speculated' that the price will go on a new all time high. Like what we are looking for in 2024-2025, minimum $100k. And we could still think this as speculation that bitcoin could be a world currency. And seeing how volatile the market is still in 2022, that is the sign that the market is full of speculators.

This is indeed possible but on the other hand there is still a lot to be done especially bitcoin is still in the development stage.
The adoption of bitcoin is already felt but I think 2023 is too soon for that but that doesn't mean it won't become a reality because hope will continue although I think it will still take time and it won't happen in 2023 which is only a few days away.

Are pure stock, real estate, gold speculations dead?

They are older and more traditional markets than Bitcoin market.

Logic thinking, Bitcoin speculation won't be dead anytime in future.

People will continue to make sayings like "Bitcoin is dead" as they did 400+ times already.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

I always agree that traders and investors participation in the market are driven by speculation.  But the growth of Bitcoin isn't just based on pure speculation anymore since people are busy laying foundation for adoption.  The growth now depends on the cause and effect of the action of people that is working towards the future of Bitcoin.  If there is something that happen to Bitcoin positively or negatively,  there is a reason for it.  

I both agree with what has been replied in the thread and what is stated on the article, its that the author's point does not align with the many replies in this thread because we are too focus on the market movement which automatically tag all action as speculations while author wanted to express something else.

The presence of Pure on the speculation gives another depth to the terms which somehow makes me think that pure speculation means everything happen without a reason and just pure guesses which the author wanted to refute by providing evidences why the next thing will happen.  

I agree even the author expresses a speculation but it isn't pure speculation because there is reasons and facts that those thing might possibly happen.

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Taken into facts that speculation will never ceased to exist in the market.  It is the core reason why the market is fluctuating and alive.  Without traders and investors speculation, the market will be boring as hell.  :D

There's no way bitcoin speculation will be dead ever! Speculative activity is one of the most prominent activity in the crypto market. Millions of traders live by this activity. If speculation goes dead, the market will also go dead. So I don't see any chance. Rather the bitcoin market thrives on speculation.

But there are some positive points as well. The speculation can only go dead if the price of bitcoin stabilizes. If that happens, more and more merchants around the world might see value in accepting bitcoin for their business. Especially those who need rolling cash for their business and can't hold of their bitcoins. Many companies will want to buy bitcoin as a cash equivalent. But bitcoin's price is not going to stabilize anytime soon!

Speculation is what fuel the market, so it will never be dead in a lively market anyway.  Any prediction, or thought of something to happen in the future is speculation may it be a guess or with some valid sources.  No one knows what will happen in the future so all we can do is speculate by weighing in what is the things in hand, the current events, the development, the support, opposition, etc...  Anything that is yet to happen cannot be considered as a fact and always will be speculation.


Even with the price of Bitcoin stabilizing, speculation will never end because there will always be future thoughts like ideas and expectations that are always considered as speculation.  Even our answer that pertains to the future of Bitcoin is considered speculation according to the definition.  ;D

Very poor reasoning. The author basically uses some random bullish points to argue that Bitcoin's value is no longer speculative without any clear connection.

Here's some hard truth for the author - Bitcoin will always be speculative. Just like gold. That's the reason why investors like Warren Buffet don't like both gold and Bitcoin - they don't see any mathematical formula for approximating their value. So the value is just a pure guess, aka speculation.

You can't calculate how much a bitcoin is worth because Bitcoin is not based on anything, not tied to anything. You can't take a number of users or a number of transactions and derive the value of utility Bitcoin provides. You can't put a price tag on a store of value that can't be confiscated by third party. So the open market is the only thing that we have for determining Bitcoin's price.

The positive effect that happened as a result of the recent bad incidents of some popular exchanges and coins is that people’s confidence in Bitcoin has increased dramatically, this made people realize the importance of Bitcoin to keep their assets safe.

As a result, I expect that people will begin to realize the importance of Bitcoin as a currency and a means of payment, and not as an investment asset for speculation. When this happens, we will see greater stability in the price of Bitcoin and also a significant increase in the spread of Bitcoin around the world.

This means that people stop speculating with bitcoin and using it to preserve the value of their assets but I expect that will take a bit longer, not in 2023.

Speculation about Bitcoin will be die never stopping from one side support for Bitcoin drastically drop or they have community how to make Bitcoin holder or investor are panic moment for selling their assets, but have another side of community keep believing with their speculation one day later Bitcoin back to higher price and waiting cycle four years moment.

I stand for both side and not really optimistic with Bitcoin will be dead based on their speculation hate have another legal digital currency at the future and make compete with USDT, but I don't really believing with other side always have speculative about Bitcoin reach $100,000 next time after checking how drastically Bitcoin price drop now, I think have possibility but I am trader with daily day earn profit than become long term holding.

Speculations are undending but it is just that the next anticipation of price increase is on 2024 because of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. But everything's uncertain; there may be things to occur which could boost the market value of cryptos next year and it will not solely depend on what is being assumed. Same thing with expectations of high market value; the opposite may happen. This is simply because market prices are dependent with demand and it happened that demand is changing from time to time depending on factors which could affect the interest of investors.

Maybe for now speculations are rather silent but not dead I guess. Once there are things to happen for next year, there will be changes with speculations at the present, either positive or negative, towards this industry.

We still have block rewards, and until they've completely gone you're going to have some sort of volatility, and therefore price speculation. Obviously, that doesn't mean we'll always have these wide swings. However, the general idea is that the less block rewards we have, the less volatility. Since, it's literally designed this way to create volatility. I actually think it was done as a way of encouraging people to invest, since it could potentially make them rich, and thus it increases adoption. There's other reasons too which have been well documented, but I do think it was a smart decision in terms of adoption to do it this way.

Anyhow, price speculation is almost definitely going to exist in the new year, and very likely a long time after that. I mean, there's always price speculation anyway whatever investment you take a look at.

In general, it's not dead, but rather the condition of Bitcoin itself in the market. I don't think it will be dead, but maybe the price will drop more and not experience high movements because many people choose to hold, at least for the next bullish period. That's why, maybe in 2023, the Bitcoin market will be a little more different. Therefore, each of us personally must have various backup plans for unexpected events in 2023 later.

Probably in my foreseeable adult life spent watching Bitcoin anyway, by that time I'm hopefully no longer having as many dependents as I do now so will just want to focus on subsistence heh.

Even after 3 halvings, we'll get enough new coins to affect these market forces, so that's a good 13, 14 years of active speculation based on crude expectation of new supply.

Those stuffs in the list are positive and will surely affect BTC in a positive way once it's finally implemented but sorry because I don't think this can end the speculation in BTC. They didn't say that BTC value will be stable after it but it is still volatile and unpredictable sometimes.

When it comes to adoption the same thing is going to happen it will still be speculated because there will always be a country that will stay on the ban side and maybe there are countries who allow BTC before but banned it later on for some reasons. I am not trying to be negative here but im just saying the possibilities so please don't hate me for this guys. Peace 8).

This is why I don't always believe in what the people that only know the theory knowledge about cryptocurrency say. Speculation was basically an act of predicting or guessing the market's possible next or future price and no matter what he used to back up his claim speculation can never be separated from the Bitcoin market because its volatility in nature has already made it a subject of speculation.
Let's use gold as an example. Despite it, the strongness of its industry and global adoption of its market gold is still speculated.

Because speculation has always been a part of a market and people who are active in the marketplace often participates because of their speculation and think that in the future they will get profit from their investment.  And Bitcoin is not different. Even though Bitcoin is far more technical than gold, its market is still subject to supply and demand which always triggers everyone's speculation.  Also Bitcoin market, the same way as other market is affected by the masses sentiment.  So we actually cannot remove speculation in everything especially when it tackles future growth and future price of the industry.

There is no reason to hate you for your point of view.  Each one of us has one and should be respected.  I also think that the adoption won't be 100% successful, there will be a failure and there will be success.  Despite that, I do not think that speculation will die after some well-established foundation of Bitcoin.  I think speculation is already attached to whatever we do especially when we are talking about the price and future value of anything, including Bitcoin.

I do think that it is a mistake of the author that he attached Bitcoin price to his topic, while he is trying to say is the Bitcoin Industry foundation and future adoption, will no longer be pure speculation.  I do understand that as, there is a solid reason why the next thing will happen and not just any random assumption.  I do agree that the statement itself is  a speculation though.


I agree, it has been established in this thread the bitcoin speculation will never end.  What is not established is how we understand the meaning of Pure Bitcoin Speculation.  The author should have clearly stated his thought about this "Pure bitcoin speculation"  but he doesn't leaving us to have a thought that it is the same as speculation.

Major reason for the volatility is the demand part not the supply part, in my opinion. That means even if the block reward dropped down to 0 right now, we still continue seeing a very volatile market for the next 5 to 10 years simply because of how bitcoin adoption works. It comes at bursts and a big portion of that adoption is always weak hands thinking they can get rich quick who would also panic sell causing the big swings.

The one who hates will always give ugliness to the one he hates. But sometimes they don't really understand what they hate, so I think the bad opinions written by that person are not always true. They just feel rivaled and hate. So I thought let it go.
Regarding speculation, I think as long as the BTC community is still strong and they still believe in the value of Bitcoin we don't have to worry. Because it is the best fuel of Bitcoin and crypto. Although adoption or whatever is done for the near future speculation will remain. Unless Bitcoin becomes a stable asset.

Bitcoin cannot be seen as a payment means alone without due regard to its value and how it would affect the plans of the buyers and sellers. Speculation is not about the investment alone but also about plans on how to own/accept or spend the coin. The 2023 forecast might be difficult from a technical angle, but judging from the economic angle, Bitcoin might continue to fall this year unless inflation really has a long-term downturn. It might have a rough year as it did in the later part of 2022 when a sideways market dominated. Irrespective, it should still bias downward even if it touches some highs this year.

My conclusion is that whether anyone is storing it, trading it or using it for payment, regular speculation is still a good guide to plan better.

I think it will take longer, because Bitcoin can still be mined for 100 years, and we are fortunate to witness the birth of BTC. I think stability must be established on more user groups, which requires more time.

I understand what you're trying to point out here because the statement appear not be made by cryptocurrency hater.

The Bitcoin community is stronger than how we think if not when the SEC planned to FUD the market in the year 2016 we won't have seen what is called BTC.
Having said that, Bitcoin may be volatile in nature but there's no asset in the world that's stable in price and this is the reason speculation can never be separated from every asset market.

The Bitcoin community is stronger than how we think if not when the SEC planned to FUD the market in the year 2016 we won't have seen what is called BTC.
Having said that, Bitcoin may be volatile in nature but there's no asset in the world that's stable in price and this is the reason speculation can never be separated from every asset market.
[/quote]
Even at that time period the community is strong. Think of the present situation. The number of users and the market available have increased drastically. To destroy bitcoin is not gonna happen. The market being volatile is the best part and no asset have got high volatility as cryptocurrencies. It is high risk asset than the stocks and other forms of investment. The market by development is speculative.

To be fair bitcoin is not an asset and was never meant to be an asset. It is a currency that needs to become money hence this much volatility is not good for it at all. The only hope we have is for bitcoin to slowly decrease its volatility and big unpredictable swings, and since so far we have seen that we remain hopeful.

speculation will continue to flow about bitcoin and it can affect the value of bitcoin itself, now the level of trust in bitcoin is not good in my opinion with the case of well-known exchanges,
in that case the bitcoin price turnover is not moving fast but very slowly people are very careful at this time to invest their funds because one moment the FTX and , luna can occur on btc if the level of trust has decreased to 98%
but bitcoin speculation will die in 2023 I don't think so,

Someone is always going to be trading either spot or futures for BTC price, it's always going to be speculative just as any other currency whether in a bear or bull market. Even the USD is constantly speculated in foreign exchange.

But this conference surely is inviting more investors of crypto and they are all going to be speculative as well knowing that prices can take a dive after a bull run.

There won't be any more excitement when that speculative nature isn't there. To tell you the truth what excites the community is the speculation around Bitcoin. Remove speculation from this industry and you will have it muted. Look at how the stablecoins are. There's no excitement there. People want where they will place their money in expectation that it will come out with a better ROI.

Invariably, OP should know that speculation is an ongoing thing in this crypto industry. It can't be dead.

You have a point because the goal of Satoshi was to create an alternative currency that's governed by the Feds, central banks, or institutional banking but the potential, benefit, and opportunity presented by Bitcoin make people use it as an asset. Since this had happened we can literally call BTC an asset.
Having said that, In this current market, I don't see the volatility increase unless more country legal it as legal tender or the total 21 million coins is mine.

Bitcoin volatility may be a great advantage but it's also a great disadvantage. A lot of people are hoping the volatility can be reduced and I don't see it happening if the 4 cycles remain and there is no much support from the government.

Stablecoins are just a tool that allows you to fix the result of investments, or wait for some time, maybe a fall time, but this cannot be an investment tool. And bitcoin is something that can bring good profits, it is an investment tool and this is what attracts investors. The more expensive bitcoin becomes, the less likely it will grow in the future, but at the moment it is still a very attractive investment

Speculation exists. It did, more intensely a few years ago, and I believe it'll drop as times goes by until there's mass adoption. Nobody sees USD as a speculative asset (except Forex traders perhaps), so maybe what's needed is further adoption for the most part. Most Bitcoin holders just swap fiat for bitcoin, and that's all they do.

Yes, the meaning of Bitcoin is not just for cryptographers to speculate, but a product based on currency, which can open up a new worldview and values. It is absolutely impossible to interpret from Bitcoin only Financial value, as well as a social mechanism that belongs to the future world's transparency, truly achieve fairness and transparency, and let the blockchain enter everyone's life.

Indeed, it is a fact that many people are looking for ways to hide, if the volatility or speculation of bitcoin disappears, bitcoin will be less attractive, and probably no one will care about anonymity, and decentralization anymore. To be honest, I am here for profit, and I am a speculator, if bitcoin becomes stable and unprofitable, I will leave it and look for a market where profit can be made.

Satoshi's goal indeed is to create bitcoin as a currency, a peer-to-peer payment method without banks or intermediaries, it is really cool but not attractive enough for it to attract everyone. Profit is what we care about.

The first decade has passed, and we all know what bitcoin has achieved. Adoption has grown rapidly and bitcoin has gotten stronger to the point where it has managed to win government support ^{[some countrie],} so it is only natural to expect bitcoin to not only be a speculative asset as it has been used as a medium of payment in its use cases.

We can all expect better growth in its use case and more adoption on its way into its second decade. This is all the more obvious as governments in various countries have talked about it more often than against it. I know that's only partly because some governments still think bitcoin is a threat to the environment from mining, but I guess that's just one of those myths that can actually be debunked.

Market won't be alive and thriving if the speculation aspect is not present.  Speculation is what fuels the trading, since I believe that it is the core of the marketplace activity aside from the supply and demand.



Indeed, I know that speculation in Bitcoin never ceased to exist but Pure Bitcoin Speculation do.  Actually pure Bitcoin speculation had ceased long time ago when companies adopt Bitcoin and some countries acknowledge it as mode of payment.  From that there is a basis of growth for Bitcoin and not just pure speculation that Bitcoin will grow out of nowhere.

Technological developments cannot be stopped and there will always be updates and updates, as well as bitcoin, although there are still many who cannot accept its presence, of course, everything is adapted to the situation of that country. I agree with you, that there are certainly more countries that agree with the presence of bitcoin than those that still reject it, but gradually all must also adjust to the situation that will indeed occur, this cannot be avoided.