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I've been messing around with plinko on a couple sites. My normal strategies are 14 lines low payout and 16 lines low payout.

There are times I am dropping 200-400 $ balls so I get to wager alot, but seems like everytime I drop a big ball I hits a loss spot.

You play 16 lines, there is only 1 bad spot and that's directly down the center for .5x money lost. I've seen that slot hit 5x in a row.

So what's a better strategy?

Not sure on the exact probabilities for plinko but I remember it being the most probable to hit the first few slots near the centre and then either the next set of slots or the set after that. I'd guess for a single high bet the best chance are to set the middle fairly high and then half way on either side to also be quite high but you might also be better off dropping multiple marbles on one bet instead that equals the wager amount (though that's probably less fun).

The third slot from the centre seemed a fairly likely hit too.

There's a higher chance of it landing on the middle rows. Normal curve-based probability. I would suggest you focus more of your bets within the center, and then deviate a little here and there to cover a wider range. If you are shooting for a single bet high wager, however, this could still work but will not guarantee a win every time. So I would really suggest you drop multiple marbles instead of going all out on different bets, like what Jackg said.

I'm not shipping all in bets but rather decent to large bets but when I do I seem to find a middle streak losing 500-1000$ on the run.

In the long run I'm losing my ass and the rakeback or bonus that I earn is far from covering the losses.

Overall, just need a general strategy thats not a huge loser and can wager large amounts.

^Just wanted to know where usually you will drop the chips.
Because my strategy is that drop the chips 3-4 places from the center or could be in one position in the center alone, and then my observation the chip will go to the right or left side which has landed into the higher multipliers. But I won't take a serious drop on this kind of game because I know that the large percentage of odds that you get is less because it is based on luck game.
However, if you wanted to know if there is an existing thread that talks about strategy in Plinko's last 2 years, this will probably help you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5324771.0

Dont know since plinko is purely based on luck but this YT vid might give some idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA5F9b3u-RQ

He had made out some alterations on low 10 to high 16 and spamming hell out of those 5bucks per ball.  :D
Did decide to low 10 and he is just testing out and leave for 300 bets auto and do get some few bucks.

there is no special strategy, just dropping and hoping that luck will come using 16 lines, even using a small capital, I often get a number of 0.5x, the more I try, the more I lose my money there, since then I haven't tried the game again

If the goal is high wagering then the best way to roll is tons of small bets, as you mention the x0.4 spot hits really often and doesn't worth going with big bets. The chance to hit that spot is close to 30% and 5 consecutive hits aren't really hard to see.

My strategy for the long-term roll is in the high-risk line, 5k bets, and double up until it hit x999. The odds on that multiplier are 0.0034% so, in theory, you need close to 30k bets to hit it, and since not all the other 30k bets represent a loss then sometimes works fine for the long run.

Plinko is an interesting one, I think it resembles normal distribution and probability theory.   Its probably the case there are books literally written all about the maths behind this problem or game because the outcomes should be quite linear.  Obviously the central outcomes are most probable of all and the very outliers should only rarely happen comparatively.  Its also a common fairground game, I can remember it being an old game decades ago.

Probabilities are not distributed equally among all spots. Spots on the far right and left are less likely to be reached than the ones of the middle. So I think the better strategy is to write down the result of each draw of the plinko you are playing in order to evaluate the real probability of each spot to be reached. After that you could calculate the Expected Value (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) of each spot by multiplying its probability with its winning payout.

The Pascal's triangle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_triangle) shows how many paths can be taken to reach each spot.
https://pressbooks.howardcc.edu/app/uploads/sites/61/2020/04/Plinko4.jpg

Results from some simulations give an idea of the probabilities to reach each spot of a common plinko.
https://pressbooks.howardcc.edu/app/uploads/sites/61/2020/04/Plinko-T_3.jpg
https://pressbooks.howardcc.edu/app/uploads/sites/61/2020/04/PLinko-7.jpg


You can find more datas there :
https://pressbooks.howardcc.edu/jrip3/chapter/so-you-want-to-win-plinko/
https://medium.com/bitcoin-news-today-gambling-news/how-plinko-probabilities-odds-are-determined-55d414c75564

Strategy? Isn't that based on pure luck? And no matter the setup, winnings and losses are calculated so that casino wins in the end?
I think that best strategy is a cliche, and it's not to play more you can lose.
I personally just trust my luck and play all my budget with one big bet. It's not as lasting fun but payoff could be huge.

Rather than strategy it is the luck that brings win. Whether it is sports betting or casino games, we'll have better winning probability if luck is in favour. I wasn't used to plinko, but with dice what I used to do is go for roll above 80 and below 20 for few consecutive rolls. Surely this wins and the same will let us make a small recovery of the loss during the session.

While you are clear that it is an EV-game and that you seem to play for entertainment, you don't seem to be very clear about the variance.


This is probably due to pure and simple variance, regardless of the strategy you use.




Good comments and analysis. What I don't see the logic of is getting into complicated calculations to play EV-, i.e. calculating the EV of losing money. Gamble for entertainment, yes. Be aware that it is a long term losing game, too. Now, studying and doing complicated calculations for plinkoI don't see it, for that I would do that study and those calculations in something that gives me profit, like some investment or bets with potential profit.

Indeed getting a win is luck, but if we use a strategy it will be possible to get that luck.
Luck cannot be obtained by people* who only rely on faith and self-confidence. However, we can get my own luck by trying to minimize the percentage of defeats by continuing to use deep strategies and accurate analytical calculations.
If strategy is just a substitute for luck, why do people who can get continuous wins in a game like poker just luck, even though the basis of the game of poker is ingenuity and intelligence in dealing with cards, so it is very different from the game of dice, which really only relies on luck without having to think hard while playing

I know that plinko is based on luck but according to my observation, my luck on this game improved after a 2nd or 3rd deposit. It wasn't a consecutive deposit but I take a few hours of rest. My first deposit is usually smaller amounts but the 2nd or 3rd one is slightly bigger. I play on 16 lines high risk and I can get 1kx multiplier easily by applying the strategy that I formulated.

In sports betting, you will have a better winning probability if you have a good knowledge in the sport that you are following even though your luck level sucks but I will still prefer plinko over it and over any other casino games because this is the only game that makes me enjoy or thrilled.

Strategy is not a substitute for luck and poker isn't based purely on luck, it's a setup of various skills like counting probabilities, choosing what hands to play and in live games, getting inside of your opponent's head.

I was talking about in-house games like plinko.

What i meant by pure luck is that implying that there's a winning strategy means that casino would had a flaw in their calculations. Game wouldn't be profitable to the casino if probability of every setup wasn't constantly work slighly for them.

There's no strategy that affects the pre-programmed constant probabilities of the game. There's only "luck".

Light reading:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossibility_of_a_gambling_system

No matter how I look at it, Plinko's result is random, I do not think that there is a strategy on this but rather depends on the risk type we choose.  Watching the video link given by @stomachgrowl, it is obvious that setting the risk low and rows smaller gives the player more chance of at least breaking even in a longer session which is beneficial if we are aiming for Rakeback and other bonuses related to the wagering amount.

I find this reply from the thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5324771.0) link given by @DoublerHunter worth noting.

I remember some years ago i used to have a plinko bet simulator, the backup should be somewhere if you want i can search for it and put it back online. With it, you can simulate millions of bets and try to look for a strategy for the long run with different seeds.

If you are interested just send me a PM and it could be back online for this week.

If you are playing a game while participating to a tournament or a promotion, you need to care about the EV, a little bit at least. Because if you don't want to chase a reward from a promotion or a prize from a tournament for nothing, or even worse than that, for an unavoidable loss, you need to evaluate what losses you are likely to get from this game for reaching the requirement of the said promotion or the target you are aiming for the tournament.

It is true that the games provided in the casino have been programmed and in the end only the casino wins and the gamblers lose. Winning in casino games is just luck and I confirm that.
However, there is a strategy that can be used in betting on casino games, this strategy is that we can see and analyze and calculate for ourselves in several game settlements. If we have got the right position, then we can bet and it is possible to get a win.

From my previous opinion, I just explained that luck is not a strategy and luck in betting can be obtained by using the right strategy.

That is way more profitable dropping in the center with multiple marbles so that it will easily move back and forth, side by side, in which the winning slots are mostly placed. Also, if you think you are losing already big on that day, I guess it’s smarter to just call it a day and leave. After all, this is still luck based game so strategies alone are not enough.

I'm playing on stake and there you can choose low med or high risk. Not the exact same as we had at LB, but similar. I do seem to be hitting the middle slot more often than I should imo though.

Basically betting the blue line so hitting an edge  is only like a 10x

The ball won't move in accordance to what is anticipated because it would go randomly, on an actual plinko game. But since we are talking about virtual plinko, algorithm might take side and if not, it will again fall down to luck. indeed, forcing your fate on a pure luck based gambling game will just put you into a deeper hole. To some people, forcing one's luck leads to a better situation but I believe  that on a usual basis, frustration will never put you into a better outcome. if you are losing in this game and you are still down to play, try calibrating both your mood and luck by engaging to other gambling game and be back after a couple of games.

I'm not sure what would be the best strategy, but as a plinko lover, I dont like to play with low/medium risk.
However if the main purpose is to get high wager, I would prefer to choose medium-high risk with low lines (8-10) but for sure I wont do it for $200-$400 per bet  ;D.
Based on my experience, I could play longer with high risk compared to low risk because once I hit the 3 biggest payout of the line, I could recover the bad losing streak.
Most of the time, bad losing streak in low risk line cant be recovered by hitting the biggest payout of the line.

I mainly use 8 lines when playing low stakes and change the number of lines to 16 and make some higher stakes. I always start my playing session with low bets and increase bets to higher ones when I see that I am losing. It is a kind of Martingale game, but based mostly on intuition. I don't like to take much risk, so I'm happy with medium risk.

I can't say that this strategy is a win-win, but sometimes I manage to win a good amount.

People are often playing with "High".

However, what most people will be played or doing for playing "Plinko" especially hash game plinko. They focused on the seed change, If some number amount of the bet has been hit and still not hitting anything.

They will change the seed, but the number bet we are talking about is randomly (People could be have different number).

Hitting the edge on a high risk 16 line bet for x1000 or whatever the site pays would be awesome, but the odds of that are around 1 in 32000 balls from what I remember when I worked with luckybit.

I don't plan on chasing that for now, but I do want to level up fast and earn quick rakeback without losing 5x the rewards I would get back.

Doesn't seem possible so far.

Ive watched and played too in Plinko and I do the same strategy of other players like spamming the ball consecutively and waiting for the edge still always in the middle part of the bonuses but its quite hard to have a huge amount of multiplier a lot of streamers I watch got a huge double their capitals but of course not all the time it works for everyone. I guess luck and timing too at the same time when playing this game because its really expensive to play before getting a 130 - 1000x.

This applies only to games that have changing variables you can count and choose if you want to play that round or not.
Choices on plinko (where you can't place the starting point of the ball) are merely an illusion that only affect how big is your risk / reward ratio. It's more complex then in dice multiplier but it's basically same when it comes to outcome.

after seeing this video I also saw this video https://youtu.be/Gx2ZUEtjnHM
so based on any strategy indeed it's all luck. see some videos with all the strategies don't always win and even with a capital of $ 10k almost lose and luck comes.
I don't really remember when I used all the strategies I used on Plinko but ended up losing

I would say that there are no perfect strategies existing in gambling. People just act wiser and smarter so they can eventually lessen their losses and attract more profits. But if you ask for a better strategy, I would suggest to never expect much gains in a luck based game like Plinko. Even if you master it well, there are no guarantees that you will make profits all the time, so just play according on your budget, probably that won’t be hurting you even if you lose most of your money.

Apparently, there will be no working strategies in a game that is pure luck based as even if you show your skills and best strategies, as long as you’re not lucky enough, you will never win. So just play it more on fun rather than seeing it as another source of income. And just gamble wit just small bets, after all you are still learning from it so expect that losses will be more visible than making significant profits.

As said there is no strategy that works everytime. Came across a win that is being posted on another thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2072589.msg61584136#msg61584136). The user was able to win 1000x after 4000 spins. He had limited his net value and slowly increased at the bottom level. This is best way to try the strategy and it won't be winning strategy, because what's been lost in the 4000 spins get compensated by the 1000x win.