Bitcoin Forum

I think it's wrong to compare the old bear market history with the future bear market, things could play out differently, I was into crypto in 2019 and I am very sure that there was a bear market years back before 2017, in 2020 there was pandemic, no one saw that coming.

Fast forward to 2023, someone I knew is expecting some kind of a new pandemic to put pressure on the world once again, he believed that the last pandemic was intentional, what do you think?

Right now some people are still waiting for more downside without any DCA so far, this is a very big risk if you ask me.

There has been at least 3 bear markets before this current one.

That is some sensational thinking and without any evidence to support the claim, there is nothing to think about. There are so many personal opinions, but that should not guide your investment decisions.

Timing the bottom is irrelevant if you plan to hold for the long term. We already have discounted prices and with DCA can steadily grow our position.
Your investment decision is yours to make, and is independent of that of others.

- Jay -

What told you people that 2020 bitcoin price fall during the March 2020 was because of pandemic? Bitcoin price falled in 2019 too, also in 2018, getting to some prices above $3000 but not below. During the pandemic, bitcoin price increased too. People only link what is happening to what is causing bitcoin price fall without doing more research about the actual cause.

I will advice you to have a positive thinking, some people will always just have negative thinking about bitcoin price until they are finally seeing themselves missing the bull market.

Bitcoin is cyclical, its price movements and other whatnots happen in cycles, thus the past history is always a good focal point to predict the present and future, it doesn't mean that things will happen exactly the same way, but more often than not history somewhat always repeats itself one way or another.
It is of no use discussing the propaganda of the pandemic here since the discussion is about Bitcoin. Yes, the pandemic will prolly go down as one event that slightly affected Bitcoin in the last couple of years, though the effect was pretty minimal. Mind you that a similar event in the form of another pandemic doesn't have to/wouldn't happen to prove that history repeats itself, what that axiom means is that when we are in a bear market, events that hamper the price of Bitcoin occurs, and when we are in a bull market events that cause an appreciation in Bitcoin price occurs.
I wouldn't call it risky because anytime is a good time to invest in Bitcoin, the only thing is they could miss out on some good ROI through investing pretty late.

Past data from bitcoin's brief history is all we have to give us an idea of what the future will look like, and while I have repeatedly said that we should take such extrapolations and models with a grain of salt, at least we have something to go on.

What do you suggest we base probabilistic predictions on?

What I think he is saying is that something like pandemic may happen that will make the world panic like the time of Coronavirus Pandemic which may cause the fall of bitcoin in price more again which might make bitcoin to go below $15000, but people failed to understand that it might not be because of the pandemic that bitcoin price falled that time because during the pandemic, bitcoin price later rose. When bitcoin even falled to $3900 in 2020, it took only 1 hour to increased back above $5000 and later in increased back to $7000 and even above. Some people will fail to understand that people are strongly waiting for halving which will lead to another significant bull run while no or no much further fall this year.

It's always been the case that things could play out differently than the typical past cycles. Though so far — while it's definitely not exactly the same, it's been pretty similar. Will the same or something similar happen in the next cycle? Maybe, maybe not. It's not my business to predict what will happen.

Theres always bear market but comparing it with years before is like an orange and apple. We dont expect the market to be the same outcome after this bear or even the pandemic wasnt planned. Even the pandemic the market was good and it was a good run. But the recessions didnt make it count since this is soemthinh all has been affected too.

No one can predict what will happen in the future, but taking what happened in the past as an indicator to predict the future is a good thing. Forecasts give a range of prices between 10k and 100K, which is a wide range to say safely that it is possible since we are not talking about expectations between 40k and 50K. Or between 50K to 55K.

So determining the range is what will determine whether it is true or false

Talking of pandemic is something we shouldn't wish to experience again because the last occurrence was very deadly which kept the entire world in total locked down. I don't sense any coming because even the previous not everyone that has recovered from it, many lost their loves one and belongings. We all pray this 2023 remain a bless year for everyone to recover whatever they have lost.

There is nothing wrong to think about cycles and repetitive market histories such as bears or bulls. You're right that it could be different in the next years to come but there's nothing wrong with thinking that someone is comparing the old and future bears.

Well, this is wrong to think that another pandemic might happen soon but if that's his opinion, he's entitled to that. I'm not thinking that another pandemic might happen just to make the market better. It's too odd to think about that because we how most countries and poor people and even the rich ones have suffered from it.

It can be said that history always repeats itself, and repeating here does not mean that everything will repeat in detail, each period will have different effects, so there will be differences. A bear market always comes after a bull market is over, and it always repeats that, that's called history repeating itself.

Because history repeats, if you want to predict the future, you have to look at history to judge, and no one can predict the future, so let's believe in history until a new history is created.

Forecasts...

There's a group of people, especially if you go to certain social media portals, who are trying hard to keep the price down by making constant bearish predictions.

One guy who I won't mention by name here but his initials are G.S. (if you watch some youtube crypto you know who it is) goes from one channel to another as a guest and every few days pops up with the same bearish prediction. I saw him in 2022 saying that bitcoin would go to 12k before Christmas then before New Year, now he's saying that bitcoin will go to 9k in 2023. He's wrong but doubles down every time. Every time I see this guy I say to myself "get this idiot out of my recommendations once and for all"

Bottom line, don't believe in any forecasts. Those who sold will tell you that it's going lower. Those who already bought or are holding will tell you it's going higher.

The better quote would be: "History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme." by Mark Twain. It perfectly describes market cycles in general, not only with bitcoin/cryptocurrencies.

I wont say its wrong, but it's not right either, I believe the boom and bust cycle represent the crypto market to some degree. you can make prediction based on historical data, but at the end of the day they are just predictions.

Those who try to time the market are fools!

It's not identical, but it's still a bear market followed by a bull market that starts after the halving. So if you don't try to time the exact bottom, the big picture is predictable.

Apart from bitcoin other markets like forex traders, etc they all partly fix their mind in past occurrence in the market at a certain period as a guide in addition to their present analysis of the market to be able to know or have and make a good/successful trade's decisions.
How do you get a hint sight about possibility of outcome of future trade without past historical experience of how such market has been playing out in times past. The future outcome may not be exactly as the past occurrences but some nuances could be perceived and that's why people take a major concern in market history.

Despite it's wrong or right, if you keep DCA-ing Bitcoin you will not wrong as long as you're invest what you can afford to lose.

I don't know where you live, but does your economy country is alright without any problem? maybe it is, that's why you can think it would be different. But if you look on the global economy, a big countries are suffer high interest, food shortage, increase of unemployment and high inflation, that's why many articles said this year recession would be happen.

History has its rhythm and mostly its rhythm is repeated many times.

Conditions can be different and it is naturally, nothing can be exactly the same with society, politics, economy and social conditions. However human psychology is the same and does not change with time and it is the most important factor to help history repeats itself. Pandemic is a borrowing reason (one of reasons) to dump the market. If there is no pandemic, market makers will use other reasons to fud and dump the market.

• Click to see a chart for Pyschology of a market cycle (https://www.newtraderu.com/2021/07/28/psychology-of-a-market-cycle/)

Intentional or not, we can not say and need investigation but I'm doubtful that we will have good reports about reasons of the 2019 pandemic. I only know that the global markets including cryptocurrency market were dumped intentionally.

A most clearest example is rude oil was dumped to negative price.

• Oil prices dip below zero as producers forced to pay to dispose of excess (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/oil-prices-sink-to-20-year-low-as-un-sounds-alarm-on-to-covid-19-relief-fund)

It is what you read and heard. Very likely what they are doing are different than what they said or discussed.

Exactly, it's fruitless to wait for further downside when we already have heavily discounted prices. Potential for profits is already huge.

I don't think that something like this will necessarily affect the market to move as it did in the previous year's pandemic, although many people believe that the bull market in 2021 was caused by the impact of the pandemic but we cannot fully guarantee that the pandemic is the only factor that makes market went up last year.
So far, if we look at the history of market movements, only the bitcoin halving event can actually make the market move to experience a higher price increase because when the halving occurs, investors will simultaneously enter the market to take advantage of the momentum.

The Pandemic brings a new ATL for those who haven't DCA already and they are able to buy for even cheaper rates, it was a very rare opportunity and I don't believe that such will happen this time, the great reset have happened when FTX fucked everything up..

Do you know how many billions worth of companies went down because of Sam? Many people are waiting for another 2020 buying opportunity once again but they will be disappointed.

A brief history of bitcoin in the past will always be a reference for the future. The movement of Bitcoin cannot be separated from past history, although the movements are not the same, the four year cycle cannot be separated from Bitcoin. There is always Bull after the Bears leave. The bearish market may be scary for many investors especially for Newbies who are just starting to invest in crypto assets. There is no need to panic in the face of a Bear Market, because there are many strategies that traders and investors can learn and use to get profits.

expect a new pandemic to affect the world economy? even the remnants of the previous pandemic still remain, even though they are few.
I didn't even really expect that to happen again, because it wasn't just the crypto market that was affected, but all sectors. If we talk about 2023, good wishes, of course, everyone really wants. The market is starting to improve and it is the right moment to start buying and doing DCA. If you expect a deeper decline, DCA will really work because there will be some reserve money that has already been prepared.

It really looks like this, the bear market is advancing faster, or maybe we are expecting too high and too much? However, this cycle will continue to occur where the bearish and bullish eras cannot be passed. In this case, we need to take advantage of each era. What else do we hope for besides various benefits at all times?

The bearish era is the right time where we can do DCA or any method to prepare for the coming of the bullish era. many people are interested in various crypto hype in this bearish era. But I personally believe more in Bitcoin, which most likely will definitely have a pretty fantastic price increase. This is nothing new when the market turns into a buying field and bulls become a selling area for taking profits. It remains to be seen how far and how long we are able to hold on to this Bitcoin, whether it is one time bullish or for the future again.