Bitcoin Forum

ok, lets do this.

at 8:00pm tomorrow nite, Monday 12/12, i will note the mtgoxlive price out to its normally displayed 5 decimal place as in 3.22400.  it will be my discretion as to which winning price i end up choosing in the 60 sec btwn 8:00 and 8:01pm altho i will try to take note of it at 8:00:00 pm.  the only reason i'm hedging is just in case i'm distracted by something else at that precise time.  and if i'm busy and miss it completely i will attempt to glean the winning price from all participants or we'll just have to do it again.

if you wish to compete for the 1 BTC, you may guess at what price it will be at that time and leave your btc address in your post.  this thread will keep track of who guessed what price.  if you want the whole btc, you'll avoid overlapping a price with someone else.  if you really want to guess a certain price that someone already has, then you'll just have to split the 1 BTC with however many ppl overlap you if you are right.

i leave it up to S3052 if he wants to throw his 1 BTC in as well.  if you see a problem let me know now.

edit:  1 guess per person.  you have to have a minimum of 50 posts to participate (prevent someone from setting up new accts just to get a guess).  I stop taking guesses at 7:00 pm tomorrow so i have a chance to tally.  doesn't matter if you go over; just whoever is closest.  Pacific Std Time.

1 BTC thrown in by me

What time zone?

1GAw8pCEfcFYm9KrpWEQyQKy1dCwgNmGZy

3.29999

is this like the price is right, closest without going over wins?
by what time does my vote have to be cast? can i put in my vote 5 mins b4 8:00 tomorrow?

look at op; added a few conditions.

3.24555
1GZQ3UfEoooLQV5BfWF65aEkUivm5mXcUw

3.32888

15pStXDj67o6AAet9RNJwGNxm9h6Vu75pM

You can get an exact quote here:  http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323748785&end=1323748815 (http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323748785&end=1323748815)

It'll give you all trades for Mon Dec 12 20:00:00 -0800 2011 +/- 15 seconds.  I suggest whichever one is immediately before 1323748800.  Note that it runs on a bit of a delay.

Edit: And I guess 3.23151.  :)

1AhFbcdwU4TDg3rr1wk4TstRwFZfDXNFvg

3.15935

thats a good idea.  we'll use that.  but what is "1323748800"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time)

tl;dr: Unix stores time as the number of seconds since Midnight, Jan 1, 1970 (GMT/UTC).  1323748800 is 20:00:00 PST tomorrow.  The start= and end= in the URL are 15 seconds before and after that point.  When you get data, the timestamps will be the first thing on each line.

Example: http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323648785&end=1323648815 (http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323648785&end=1323648815)

You'll get CSV sets of [unix time, price, quantity].

Edit: Handy converter: http://www.perturb.org/code/js-unixtime.html (http://www.perturb.org/code/js-unixtime.html)

Also: which side of the spread are we guessing?  Buy, sell, or pure luck of whichever order posts just before the buzzer?

3.80000

1JAUWs58hxrHq7uxszgdt25VLt5Fk5pUjy

3.14159 - my lucky number

1BurtWEejbnKeBRsvcydJvsNztB1bXV5iQ

3.46666
1CchVM1AfdGQvhioYeqbwguUBHnyddtXkW

3.09

Address in sig.

You should have a longer period between posting deadline and price estimate. Its kinda stupid to guess now when you can post your guess up to 1 hour before the deadline. But hey, Il be stupid and post my guess now:

3.2020202

12qLqDrUT1RvsvnKkFNubnJSs8JEQH5sCN

i will lock the thread at 7pm tonite to prevent anyone changing his guess.  i will also try to take the last settled price at 8pm.

I'd say lock the thread now; the longer you wait, the closer we are to the deadline, and the easier it becomes to be "right". Those who guessed 22 hours before the deadline are going to have to be a lot luckier (or whatever) than those who guess one hour before close.

I'll guess 3.10

1MteRHyfx8pc9GrMuj5BS7Y9xDiNguay2q

3.12312312

Any address in sig will do.

3.04444

1MZx357xF1454zFAgRH6GFWRijrhK4eLDA

3.13246

address in sig

 i plan to edit my post last min  :D

I just wanted to make a post quoting this for its randomness.

Why didn't you choose 8 am to place the date barrier at Greenwich? Then, I might have found it a funny trolling attempt, as people start debating why the other half posts on the wrong date.

Edit: lol, nevermind, I think you're doing this quite well already. Saying "tomorrow" in UTC-8 at the evening, when it was already the 12th for the rest of the world... ;D

Deadline: 2011-12-13 4:00 UTC.

3.18062

1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf

Thanks!

I'm trying to figure this out .. so the deadline is:

2011-12-12 8:00pm Pacific Std Time.
2011-12-12 11:00pm Eastern Time (my time zone)
2011-12-13 4:00am UTC

edit: wait isn't the deadline 1 hour b4 the time of prediction!?

I say its a good time to lock in the bets. Anything closer than 5 hours and more recent guessers have too good of a chance.

Please lock the thread until after the deadline.

3.06500
(sneaking in my bet)
1PMkySQc5Wm5Hd5W3HUSfkvLoqxjTkvdMc

3.34232

LOL!
Why didn't you both do the smart thing and wait until closer to the deadline before entering your guesses?
The rules were clearly stated from the outset - the thread will be locked at 7pm PST.

3.19736

1CYXeDtweeubVmn5RETWDVwbuc7BgCP8bM

Thanks ;-)

looks like Goat is the winner, am I right?

.00751 difference from price of 3.23151