Bitcoin Forum

It seems that people are now getting used to Bitcoin market behaviour, now people are understanding that Bitcoin cycle is 4 years. Imagine if the FTX collapse happen in 2017, I believe the impact will be more drastical compare to today, now I can boldly say that Bitcoin has now recovered all it's losses since the FTX collapsed, is this safe to say?

I never expected the fast recovery that's why I said the world is finally understanding why Bitcoin is a necessity in every one's life, am I saying too much? Or you think I am right?

Not all people understand it. There are old guys and new guys in Bitcoin market and not all of them understand it. Even you are old participant in the Bitcoin market, there is chance that you have yet understood it.

Understanding it is difficult, then applying your knowledge and understanding to have good decision is harder.

Nothing is similar entirely in different years of history. Lot of different conditions in Bitcoin market, cryptocurrency market and their ecosystems as well as social conditions like politics, economics and others.

FTX is one of biggest collapses in history of cryptocurrency market but it is not a first and won't be the last.

If you fully understood 4 year cycle of Bitcoin, you should not say it. Because what you said shows that you did not understand the cycle. It will be a first time Bitcoin can recover fully very long time before its halving.

The demography of bitcoin holders has been changing for some years now and that would definitely reflect in how the market reacts to major drops or pumps, and would also affect how the "4 year cycle" sequence works.

• When you have more weak hands with little understanding of what they are holding, you get quick dumps when the price drops and lots of FOMO when it pumps.
• When you have more holders who understand how it works and has had the liberty to understudy previous cycles and recoveries, you have more people who are confident in the network and are aware that short term price action is not relevant to long term investors.

I believe this would also change how the current cycle works and create a resistance to how low the bear market can go overtime.

I'll say we have recovered when we get back to the $30K support. But for now, the spiral of bankruptcies this season is causing has to go away, if we want to see investors (read: users) buy more BTC which would ultimately raise its price to that level.

Think about it, how do you expect Bitcoin to recover when a big player is declaring bankruptcy every few weeks? This isn't even a span of months we are talking anymore.

Quite an overly-optimistic take in my book. People won't suddenly realize that Bitcoin is a necessity, just right after one of the biggest exchanges committed fraud. People still think that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a scam/fad, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

You only look on the FTX collapse while you're not paying attention to other more important case e.g. Lukedashjr aka Bitcoin Core's developer hardware wallet got hacked and Joe Grand aka Kingpin which can hack a hardware wallet. Most users and early holders always recommend to use hardware wallet to hold large amount of Bitcoin, with the previous 2 cases before, can an Average Joe still think hardware wallet is still the most safest place? I guess they're think hardware isn't completely safe too.

Don't forget the last year there are not really have many bad news about Bitcoin, there are still have a good news but it doesn't make Bitcoin price increase.

Bitcoin probably has a mini bull run like it had in 2019 with a good mini recovery from $3700 to about $13,000 before it was pulled back to $6,000 to $7,000.

If Bitcoin continues this recovery, I only expect it to touch $30,000 from that it will be pulled back like in 2019. From $30,000 to $20,000 is a good pull back in 2023 for Bitcoin. It will need months to be warmed up again for 2024 halving.

Fud is everywhere, bankruptcy from big players in 2020 and 2021 have yet completed so there will be no bull run to $60,000 in 2023. I agree with you that bad companies must be cleaned up in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market before 2024 bull run.

I believe you're right but you just can't be safe to say that because everyone has their own comprehension and understanding to talk with if it's about bitcoin's recovery and losses due to the FTX impact so, it's very subjective.

One can say that it hasn't recovered yet and has to wait and go back until $30k-$40k because that seems to be the range when the new has broken out.

But I understand you and I'm with you that bitcoin has recovered and the point is likely the bottom was already seen and in.

The more people begin to believe in the existence of a 4-year Bitcoin cycle, the more likely it is that this rule will not work in the future.  Yes, there is such a thing as a halving...

The significance of the halving is that it reduces bitcoin inflation. 

However, each subsequent contraction is less significant for Bitcoin than the previous one.  This is due to the fact that the miners have already mined most of the coins.  Therefore, we are not entirely sure when exactly the Bitcoin bear market will end and its bull market will begin. 

It is also very difficult to objectively assess the impact of the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange on the dynamics of the price of bitcoin.

The recovery is arguably pretty quick if we look at it since the FTX crash, but I would always be wary of anything that's deemed 100% secure. Even market speculation, including investors, are now starting to dare to take large-scale buying actions and choose to forget about the incident at FTX. Personally, I don't feel overly ambitious either during market recoveries or crashes what I'm still doing is dropping a few dollars every 2 weeks on Bitcoin.

You have to understand that bitcoin does not collapse with the FTX, it's all about having your bitcoin investment with them that got scammed along the FTX collapse, those affected were their investors that confided in them and not the bitcoin network neither doesit make any deligible difference in determining the bitcoin price, so in this context i will only admit the fact that if the affected investors have find it a means of recovery ever since the attacked to have invested on bitcoin but now on their own wallet.

I think you think too much, but these thoughts go mostly in the wrong direction and are very limited to just one event without looking at the big picture, which prevents you from seeing things in the right context. There are a lot of elements that have influenced the BTC price drop, and FTX was just the latest to cause the crash towards $15k. A much bigger crash was caused by the failure of that scammer project from South Korea, and before that we were sinking due to the increase in inflation and the fall of the stock market, as well as disruptions in the world markets caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Add to all that the fact that ATH was always followed by a correction, and then you have a much clearer picture on the basis of which you can draw conclusions. In addition, this recovery is not yet a definitive sign that we have exited the bear market.

As for your belief that "Bitcoin is a necessity in every one's life", I think you are exaggerating beyond measure, because if less than 5% of people in the world have any contact with Bitcoin, how important is it to the rest of the people in the world - especially those 40% who don't even have access to the internet?

I don't think that bitcoin have recovered from FTX crash since the price has only gone up to an extend which is still very low compare to what we are expecting. People are still contemplating if bitcoin is for real or a scam, due to several crash of institutes which people have entrusted their investment to.

Only experts can say that they have understood bitcoin four years cyclic movement and it can not be assured but just an assumption. My reason is this,in different years there are always different challenges that hits the crpto market which I think last year was the worst. Inflation is also around the corner all these joined together can still affect bitcoin cyclic movement. It can be before the predicted time or after the predicted time nobody knows.

You are right op. BTC and some part of the crypto market recovered their losses since the FTX collapse incident, but it remains to be seen whether they can sustain their current prices for a long period or not.

Just a single negative event could wash away all the gains which is why constant positive news is required to help sustain this current bull market.

How about we zoom past 30 in a short time, will that make you feel better?


It could still reach 30 in a short time with the participation of only one or few users. This should prove that Bitcoin currently doesn't depend on users buying more to become more valuable.  The one who currently supports the price is trying to help everyone benefit from the price increase.  
Bitcoin is currently refreshing as with each massive price increase there may be a short pause for a rest.


There is actually an ongoing sanitization of the entire Bitcoin/crypto space. I expect the intelligent ones to adapt by using better models/platforms that can stand the test of time.
Our forum will likely be open up soon for such cleanup... all for the good of the Bitcoin/crypto space.

I always wonder why crashes like FTX does not come in the bull market ? All of these bad events always happen in the bear market due to which we see the price dump.
How strange that FTX Crash, Luna Crash and of these events did not took place in 2021 which was a bull market year.
Anyways, bitcoin will recover but those who have lost their money in FTX, they will never be going to get their money back.

Let's guess, that special user is you? Instead of writing nonsense about how you influence the price of Bitcoin with your posts, it would be better for you to seek psychological help regarding the fanaticism you practice on the forum >:(

Bitcoin has started recovering its price and is moving up again. We saw that the FTX crash had a tremendous effect on the market, but it doesn't matter anymore because until now, bitcoin is still holding on and will rise even higher.

But perhaps this situation is not safe for bitcoin because the decline could happen again, especially if many governments issue more negative news regarding the policies that regulate bitcoin. But this recovery phase has started, and we still have a chance to use it. And you are right @OP, who said that bitcoin would become a necessity in everyone's life and it is only a matter of time that will answer it.

Ahh, what makes us think that this is recovery from the FTX collapse? Is there any proof that the money which was stolen has been injected back to the market? I don’t think so. That is not the relation here neither it is time to predict or connect the dots with it. I’m pretty sure that this is just start of bill run because people are getting ready for the 4 year halving cycle end. It’s new year, many investment firms might be making their best move right now and will be hoping for the future trades soon. Could be any of the reason but too early to state it has got anything to do with the FTX melodrama.

No, it's not. FTX collapsed when the price had crashed already. I think it went from $20k to $16k, or something like that, which isn't small drop, but we've seen worst.

You're both right and wrong. "The world finally understanding utility" sounds too romantic to me now more. Yeah, it can be the case, that people slowly start feeling more confident, but most are still in just for the profit.

The FTX bloat will affect the industry for years to come. The same way MT Gox affected the Bitcoin industry for years, FTX will become a shadow that will follow cryptocurrency for years.

The price of cryptocurrencies, especially the price of bitcoin, fell to $16000, as it decreased by 20% of the value of cryptocurrencies, and this is due to the collapse of FTX and its associated companies, and the price of bitcoin this year reached $23000, and it is to some extent a gradual recovery, and I see that if bitcoin managed to penetrate the level of $25000, then Moving to $32000, it is at this stage that you can see a complete recovery for Bitcoin, and this recovery is due to the adoption of Bitcoin as a method of payment for many companies and the rise in the prevailing popular use of Bitcoin and goes back to the period when American inflation began to decline in its monthly rate of increase, OP also you are right, because Bitcoin is a necessity in the life of every person and every investor, and it is good that Bitcoin has recovered some of its losses, as its price is now a good indicator this year.

Safe or not, it doesnt matter because what matter most on here or people would be seeing is that we are above 20k price once again and thats the good thing.As of this writing then we are seeing the

price is hovering around 23k which basing up on technicals then we do need to break that 25k resistance for us to go on 28k or even on 30k.Lets not rush things up because everything would come in
the  right time.This is the most challenging part is that we couldnt be able to determine on where the price would be heading because the market had been always
unpredictable since from the beginning.

This cannot be a recovery but if that's a recovery it smells fishy, isn't it?
During the previous months and weeks, we never heard any good, effective, or positive news from the bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets so we cannot call this a recovery yet unless the market is just saving more potential to reach lower price levels. However, it's still too soon to predict the bitcoin situation or tell if it's recovering or not.

I think it's important to note that bitcoin doesn't really have a "cycle" every four years, its just that bitcoin simply "halves" every four years, which is different and would be a bit confusing to those not real versed on bitcoin if you don't explain what you mean by that exactly.

Bitcoin didn't have anything to recover from, only people.  I'm also pretty certain that most people who lost money in the FTX ordeal have not recovered.  Totally different things you're mixing up here.

Saying that or even as your topic suggests leaves me with the impression that, the FTX situation had a major role in further dipping of the bitcoin price.

I think not. The FTX situation is just another happening in the cryptosphere and remains indiscriminate to the bitcoin price movement.  Rather, it served other purpose as teaching moments on how to use centralised exchanges for those who care to learn.

We are in a new year and people are looking out for opportunities opportunities where to begin building a fortune so, its no surprise that the market is slowly having having correction on its depleted price.

I guess even without the FTX event, people are still in doubt about bitcoin and prefer to think that it’s more of a scam than legit. So how much more when the FTX scandal suddenly arise, a lot of people have nailed it that it’s right that they never trust bitcoin at all. So I’m also not saying bitcoin has recovered eventually, it’s price alone is still in a dump position.

This is so 2017... just to remind you retail investors' behavior can't affect anything in modern Bitcoin. Not even a single corporation or a billionaire (kh kh Elon kh kh..) can do it anymore!  8)

If we do tend to look back on whats the price before that FTX incident then we are talking about 21k.

Bitcoin has held firm at over $21,000 for the last two days, well above its Nov. 2 price of $20,283.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/bitcoin-has-now-recovered-all-its-losses-since-ftx-collapsed.html

Well, i do agree that we could say completely about recovery when we do hit 30k.  :)

Not a necessity yet but a big help to many already, Bitcoin has been recovered and it slowly rising again from all the negativity last year.
This is the start in preparation for the big update next year, its good to see Bitcoin on this level again and most probably it will continue for the rest of the year.
I'm always bullish with Bitcoin, if we can break more resistance then we might end this Month on a better price, probably around $24k. Lucky to those who are able to bought last year, but its not too late yet and we can still buy Bitcoin on a cheaper price before it fully rise again.

I don't see it that way, there have been a lot of negative events surrounding centralized exchanges, services and altcoins, it is not only about ftx, months after ftx collapsed and the domino effect has caught up with Genesis, a subsidiary of dcg as they have also filed for bankruptcy to begin this year. I think all of these negative recent events put together may discourage many people from crypto.

These events may affect BTC's price temporarily, but at least not the BTC network. Crypto people should understand the purpose of centralized exchanges and how to use them because the domino effect will spread to other exchanges soon, and they may collapse as well, self custody of funds is the only safe way to store your BTC.

I think it is safe to say, as long as you are talking about the price of bitcoin, that those affected by the FTX collapse have probably not yet been compensated for their losses. So for me, that’s not a complete recovery yet. So for me, that’s not a full recovery yet.

We’re still not out of the woods yet, in my opinion, because it’s just been a couple of weeks, and we can reach another high or another low, so better be prepared.

Im not sure since there is too many moonboys still calling for "this is the last chance 100k now" moves everytime it goes up. I feel like we haven't capitulated properly yet to call a bottom. It's not clear if the FTX related losses are gone due all the leveraged money in there. FTX has too many tentacles to know for a fact.

I read about how the bitcoin core developer lost his assets to a hack but do you believe that the loss of funds is not his fault? I do not believe this because mistakes don't care if you are a core developer or even a president of a country, you can still make mistakes, I still believe that his incident is one out of a million because I have not heard about someone losing fund using a hardware wallet, he his the first,  which make me believe that he messed up somehow.

Honestly, I think you saying too much, bitcoin is an investment that can bring good returns, but that doesn't mean everyone needs it. I need bitcoin because it has given me a stable economy and a desirable income, I also admit that without bitcoin, my economy would still be difficult.
But in my area, there are still many people who don't know anything about Bitcoin, but their economy is so much better than mine, and there are many people I would never keep up with even if I had more Bitcoins. Those people don't have Bitcoin and they don't need Bitcoin. Bitcoin is needed only by the people who really need it, not the whole world.

I don't think that halving is key to understanding Bitcoin's volatility, and that there are 4-year cycles regardless of what's going on in the world and with crypto industry specifically. I agree that the FTX crash in 2017 could've caused more damage, but not because of the lack of understanding of cycles. The additional damage could be due to generally not believing in Bitcoin and not believing that it will ever recover. This time around, with so many people who've seen Bitcoin fully recover from the previous crash and establish a new ATH, I think we simply have fewer people who doubt that this will happen again. That being said, let's not forget that Bitcoin lost 3/4 of its value (not all due to FTX, but still), which is a lot and not significantly smaller than in 2018.

I don't think so because the damage or impact would have been less in 2017 as compared to the damage done in 2022 collapse
because they haven't gained much of ground, popularity and the number of customers they had before the collapse.

For sure, if you are someone that bought when the price of Bitcoin was consolidating within $20k before the FTX collapse and did not sell you've definitely recovered.

For me it is safe to say that it is finally recovering and showing a good fight.
Let's just hope that this would continue and not just for a short time.
I don't really think that the price drop was only from the FTX it just played a huge part of the drop.

If the FTX collapse had happened in 2017, I don't think the impact would have been this catastrophic on the market as it was in the time the incident happened, this is because in 2017, bitcoin was still cheaper, FTX(if around at that time) was still pretty a new exchange and hasn't gained trust and the kind of userbase they had in 2022, they haven't invested and partnered with all the companies that when down with them in 2022 when they collapsed..
So there was no way their their collapse was ever going to hurt the market so much if it had happened in 2017, and yes, i agree with you that the market has probably recovered from all the losses it suffered during the collapse of the second largest crypto exchange.

I don't think the FTX incident will be the disaster that mt gox brought to bitcoin in 2014. Because the current state of Bitcoin is much stronger than that time and this cryptocurrency platform has advanced a lot. So I don't think the FTX exchange collapse will have an impact for a year like mt.gox, and the market is already back to where it was before the Ftx incident.

I also want to agree with you on this point that the price drop of Bitcoin was not only due to the collapse of FTX exchanger. Because the market was bearish before the incident of FTX exchanger, but the fact must be accepted that due to the collapse of FTX exchanger, our bearish season has increased for several months. But hopefully, since the market is showing green signal, it will be a plus point for the market before next halving starts.

Those days, my friend would ask me to invest in some altcoins, and he would be like, "Guy, invest in this token, because in the crypto market nothing is impossible; you could wake up tomorrow and see that your $200 has turned into $2,000." lol, but yea, those words really did move me then. I doubt a lot unless I have a concrete reason proven to be true. If I must say, I got convinced that in the crypto market, nothing is really impossible. FTX fall, Ukraine war, stock market turmoil, and Fud all could contribute to making the Bitcoin price plummet, but at the same time, Bitcoin and investors only need a lil good news for the price to skyrocket 🚀again. 2020 for the COVID pandemic, but in 2021, Bitcoin saw a new all-time high just within a month (November). OP, you can't be surprised 😜 at the quick recovery; a lot of people have been into bitcoin for a long time, and new investors are equally emerging every day. I was in the bank today, and the TV on the wall was showing a news station called "Channel," and at that time, the program going on was an economics news where the Bitcoin price was analysed and the percentage increase within this month is about 30%. lot of people go to the bank and with that, people can still develope more interest for Bitcoin. "Bitcoin is freedom," according to Michael Saylor.

https://iili.io/H05w7h7.md.png (https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1616420783081025540?s=19)

Bitcoin has recovered a bit, but there's still a long road ahead before things go back to normal. After all, we're yet to see the negative effects of the FTX collapse. A crypto company called Genesis has filed for bankruptcy, but I think many other companies will do the same as they were tied to FTX. This last one was the second-largest crypto exchange after Binance with investments here and there.

Maybe 2024 will be a bright year for Bitcoin? Many are hoping it will be that way because of the block reward halving. We should take advantage of "cheap" market prices before everything goes back up again. No one can predict the future so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts ;D

It did, and that's not a shocker because anyone who has been in the crypto world would tell you that bitcoin always recovers. Don't know when it will be but I guarantee you that it will go above ATH as well, it will be something strong. I believe that the future of bitcoin is expected to be 100k+ and that will be a good day when it happens, people will have to look at it like a currency and a force to reckon with for sure, there is no way around it.

I mean some of us do already but the whole world will know about it this way. At the end of the day we are going to end up with some issues in the long run, but we will overcome them and keep going higher and higher for decades.

I can’t tell that it has recovered well enough. But let’s just say that people have learned their lesson out from FTX collapse and that is to trust only bitcoin and just grab the chance to accumulate bitcoin while the price is still cheap and affordable. Instead of expecting a price surge these days, people have just settled thinking that bitcoin will just increase in the perfect time, and thus current position of bitcoin will always give opportunities to those who want to accumulate more bitcoin.