Bitcoin Forum

My limited knowledge leads me to believe that BTC is truly independent of the U.S. dollar, and of all the U.S. markets.  However, watching the value of BTC, and indeed pretty much all of the crypto currencies, it appears they are very strongly influenced by markets.

Indeed, I often think that cryptos should move in opposition to U.S. markets and fiat currencies.  If something makes the market weak, resulting in a drop in values, the cryptos should hold their own and even go up.  Obviously my thoughts don’t reflect the real world.

So,…, what do you think BTC, and cryptos in general, will do in the event of a U.S. government default? 

Bitcoin not cryptos.

They do but what you are missing is the recession part. When you say "value [of fiat] dropping", that's inflation and that leads to more bitcoin adoption and its price going up.
But when we have recession, people tend to sell everything they have to get some money to spend and cover their cost of living. Hence bitcoin price dropping due to increased sell pressure.

We have to see how that affects the economy on a large scale. AFAIK this has never happened before so we have nothing to speculate this based on.
I believe the default would lead to increased interest rates and a massive recession which could cause a bitcoin drop but at the same time that would be US economy falling apart and people would also look for an exit of the failing economy and this could translate into more investment into bitcoin instead which could lead to the biggest price rise in bitcoin history.

P.S. Another thing to keep an eye on is "when". The world order is changing and the world is decoupling itself from US economy to some extent. In a couple of years it won't matter as much as it does today or it mattered a couple of years ago if US economy falls apart. That means the effects on bitcoin (which is global) would be a lot smaller.
P.P.S. In any case The effects will be short term, in long term bitcoin will become more valuable as it is the only "money" that exists in a world filled with uncapped "currencies".

There is not going to be a US government default because they have it as easy as continuing to print. If I owe you a million dollars and I see that I can't pay you back, I print a lot more notes (or create them as bits in the system) and then I can pay you back, even though you have easily lost money on net because the dollars I pay you back with now have less purchasing power than the dollars you lent me.

Even if there is a rate hike and a tightening, the debt keeps growing, let's see:

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

There are always arguments about the debt ceiling but politicians always come to an agreement in the end.

So, for me the question is not so much what would happen if the US defaulted on its debt, but what will happen in the face of this inevitable increase in debt that tends to infinity. And the answer for me is that bitcoin will become more and more valuable. It is not so noticeable now because of the tightening, but wait until they are forced to change their interest rate policy, because they are going to be forced to do so and watch how much of the money that is printed ends up in bitcoin.

It is not entirely clear if Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could completely replace the US dollar or other currencies in the event of a financial default. Some argue that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could become a more stable store of value compared to traditional currencies, as they are not tied to decisions made by central financial institutions. However, there are also doubts about the ability of cryptocurrencies to function as a medium of exchange and unit of account, as their volatility and lack of widespread acceptance in everyday use may make it difficult for businesses and consumers to use them as a primary currency.
In the event of a US dollar financial default, there is likely to be a significant economic and financial uncertainty and the reaction of cryptocurrencies will depend on the decisions of investors and actions of regulatory institutions. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not a panacea for all financial problems and also carry risks

Well, in my opinion ... people invested in US Bonds will look for other "Safe" investments ... because the US government will default on paying interest on US Bonds. (Bitcoin is seen as a store of value by many people, so they might consider increasing their investments into Bitcoin)

That said... a lot of people will transfer their wealth into Gold and Silver too, because that is also seen as a "Store of Value" ....even though I am not sure that Gold and Silver are such a good investment ..with the uncertainty of the amount of Gold that are stored in vaults.  ::)

In  a way, I think it's good that BTC is not as independent of other economic factors like stocks (as I talked about yesterday also) or US dollar performance. So if US govt defaults (trust me it won't), BTC will crash badly like everything else.

That means to me that BTC is important to the same investors and same users of stocks and dollars and everything else. Unlike before when only nerds were using BTC ;)

Doesn't that prove mainstream adoption?

"Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets."
Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller was one of the best traders. Working as lead portfolio manager for Quantum Fund (George Soros).
And liquidity affect all markets equally. If there is a shortage of dollars, all assets dump. If dollars are print into economy, all assets are booming.

News of the US government default is always talked about every year, but I have never seen it happen. The dollar is ruling the world and the US government owns the dollar printer. How can one think of the prospect that they will default?

But assuming that happens, the world financial system will collapse then that could be an opportunity for assets like bitcoin or gold, then gold and bitcoin will become everyone's safe haven. It is impossible to imagine what the bitcoin price achieved at that time would be, but unfortunately, that can only happen in dreams ;D ;D.

The Bitcoin network is indeed truly independent from the US dollar and the US market. The US market may collapse but Bitcoin won't. It will continue to implement the Bitcoin protocol.

As regards the coin, I guess there will be two effects, one immediate, another long term. Should the government default on its debt, which is highly unlikely since congress would never allow it, the price of the coin will certainly fall. We have already seen how the price of Bitcoin negatively reacted to the Fed's interest rate hikes. However, in the face of fiat uncertainty and economic doldrums, much money might end up kept in Bitcoin.

If the US government defaults, it will have a huge impact on the entire market but it will not kill bitcoin, because bitcoin depends on any institution or asset. Bitcoin is completely independent of centralized things like governments or US dollars.  And more, that could be a huge opportunity for bitcoin as people will need a new asset to replace dollars, and bitcoin will also be an option.

In summary, the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. dollar, as well as other markets and fiat currencies, is complex and constantly evolving. Although Bitcoin was created as a decentralized, independent currency, its value is still closely tied to various economic factors, including market conditions and government events. In the event of a U.S. government default, it is difficult to predict exactly what would happen to the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, it's safe to say that the crypto markets would likely be greatly impacted by such a significant event.

It seems to me that at the moment bitcoin is not ready to replace the dollar

• The United States will not default on its debt because that is how the dollar works.
• All the signals that try to link Bitcoin and the money markets are for press analyzes for the sake of observations or FUD that effect of supply and demand.

problems that may occur regarding states defaulting on debt will cause bigger problems than their impact on the price of Bitcoin.
The biggest problem is the increasing US debt which Bitcoin may be the solution.

I assume if the Unites States actually ends up defaulting her debt it would only for a short period of time before the politicians finally get in touch with reality and approve a new maximum.

If that happens, I would expect Bitcoin to go through a dump (not a very deep one) and then go back to these current levels.
For now, Bitcoin price is influenced by the economy of the United States to some extent and I expect those news to make some traders to close some positions on Bitcoin to move to other assets.

Thanks for the comments.  The relationship between BTC, and all cryptos, and the US dollar is complex, to say the least.  The Republicans seem hell-bent on using the threat of default as leverage to get what they want.  We might default for a short period, but Congress will almost certainly do something to stop that.
I am worried about the deficit and the long term future.
In the meantime, I will make some additional investments in BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

The US dollar is dominating the global financial system, so its collapse will surely severely affect all markets but then it opens the door for all the rest of the assets, and that can also be a big opportunity for cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin.
If the US government collapses, I see more opportunity for bitcoin than the end of bitcoin because surely then people need to find an alternative asset to protect their assets. But honestly, the probability of US government default is almost zero.

Buying bitcoin (not others) is a good idea since we already know that bitcoin was created in the aftermath of 2008 economical catastrophe and we could say that it was one of the incentives that led to its creation. We could see bitcoin soar in the next time 2008 like catastrophe is repeated.

If it can happen, let it happen, I very much expect the US government to default. When an old empire collapses, a new one is born and that's bitcoin's chance. Maybe people won't choose bitcoin as an alternative, but the future is unpredictable, and we have every right to hope. The centralized financial system will be replaced by the decentralized financial system, why not?

Bitcoin is not that much immunocompromised by the global market but I won't deny that it is still the one which can actually decide where it wants to go, regardless of the global market condition. Without the fiat investment, the USD value of Bitcoin would have been zero. That is why Bitcoin is considered a commodity globally rather than a payment processor. Yes, it does get influenced by the US market but it does not mean it works in tangent with it. The best example is when COVID-19 hit the US market and still Bitcoin pumped to an ATH.

But is it? Point me to cases where people "woke up" and changed their currency preference due to fiat devaluation. Because as far as I know, when there is rise in inflation, most sell bitcoin, because they rather need more cash. And when the inflation rates drop, the bitcoin price rises. Which, as I see later on, you agree with. So what's that recession part you're talking about?

I'm of that opinion as well, but for the former to stop being a standard, some disaster has to happen I'm afraid.

Sure, here's a report from mainstream media:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/05/-in-bankrupt-lebanon-locals-mine-bitcoin-and-buy-groceries-with-tether.html

Lebanon is the canary in the coal mine for widespread Weimar-level inflation in the West.

Just look at US debt viability...

Or even ECB/Lagarde practising Erdonomics (too high inflation, too low interest rates). Everyone in EU mocked Turkey for doing that years ago. What a bunch of hypocrites! :D

BTC would continue to exist and people would probably lose most of their money that they had in the US dollar. Those people will lose faith and look to find another way of recovering from their losses. BTC will be at the top of the list and we would probably see mass adoption but because the US will keep printing dollars off this is not realistically going to happen any time soon.

I think the world is getting further and further away from just a single super power and many hate that. That is the doom of USA, they were never liked to begin with, good if you are living there, if you are an American it "could" be good, unless your a poor black person, then it is not good to live there lol.

But, if you live somewhere else, there is a reason why people are looking to use other things, because they are disliked, and for a good reason too. All in all, even if not now, they are going to be disliked in the future, and they will have to default one day. Let it be now, so we could see how it could be done and how it could improve in the future as well.

They will not default because they are disliked they will default because the US dollar has been destroyed because they keep printing dollars whenever they are in trouble but that is not unique to them all other countries do this and some of the other countries have a weaker currency then USA which means that they are more likely to default before the US does. The US has one of the strongest currencies and will probably be one of the last to default.

If the USA decides to do a true and real default on the dollar I don’t care much about what crypto will do.

Unfortunately for me I have a US gov. based pension. My wife has a US gov based pension. We also have a US gov based 401k.

The three items above would be very hard,for me and my wife to do without.

The world would be really chaotic.  Btc would not be a replacement for the dollar at this time.

If they are going to print money, they are going to use the money to buy US government bonds to keep the interest rate low and US Dollar afloat. They do have the option to take a loan from China, they are still the biggest trading partner and if China is true to thier word in only making business and not making war, they will be lending.

One that they have to struggle with is convincing countries to accept US Dollar because BRICS countries are increasing and they are gradually moving away from USD.

It is independent indeed. But the needs of the people aren't. In the event that US defaults on its debt, a massive recession will probably occur. And as we all know, recessions force people to sell their stuff to survive. That includes bitcoins for instance. That is what causes crypto to sway along the path of the outside market, and for it to deviate from this pattern it must create its own self-sustaining economy with all its own amenities and services, which is not that farfetched but tell that to brand companies with billions of dollars in holdings.

USA and China are not the best of friends and I cannot see China bailing out the US when China will have enough on their plate. I think China has been hiding the issue of the costs they have been spending to try and control covid 19. They had bigger restrictions and more extreme measures then every other country and that amount of action will cost a lot more then the self isolation that a lot of countries did. They are not going to be in any position to lend money to the US.