Bitcoin Forum

Once upon a time I used to have no idea about the so called FED meeting while I was in crypto space but now everyone seems to be more interested in the FED as if they hold the key to where the market is heading, in fact it looks like the case, is FED not the greatest market manipulators to ever existed? Every people in crypto are now looking forward to February 1st for either a pump or a dump, depending on what the FED offers us. I feel like the FED has the power over everything stock or crypto.

I wouldn't call them manipulators, but everything they said will have a good or bad effect on any market, or sort very influential. And I think they are not doing it on purpose, they have the numbers to back it up.

So whatever statement they have, the data is there and so the market interpret it in either direction. Yeah, they are very powerful though, but not to the point that they wanted to manipulate the stock or crypto market, in my opinion.

That's what they want you to believe :) And they are super successful with this. 90% of monetary policy is talking, 10% is doing. They tell you they will be hawkish so you sell and limit spending. Its kinda self-fulfilling prophecy.

Jeff Snider explain it in a simple way - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNa-fewraJA&t=36s&ab_channel=WhatBitcoinDid
FED does not have tools to impact markets nor they even know what is going on and how money works. They have a tool to make you think they have tools :)

What we will see in February 1st is a single day strong volatility that does not influence rest of the trading month. People get excited about huge dump/pump, not realizing its being eaten up in next 2 trading days and market continue to do its job going in direction it would go without announcement. We just have to look at wider picture and ignore the fact that market changed in a casino for 1 day a month. You will see trends that makes FED do what they do istead of gambling on single FED decision. Who cares if they will stop rising rates this time or after 3 months? They will do it sooner or later, inflation is already dumping. Market knows it and buys the dip. Will sell the top after FED pivot to guys who still wait for better times.

But surely that means they have the tools to impact markets if they can impact enough people in those markets..

I think some price movements, similar to research, are driven by many people having similar ideas on what they expect at about the same time (and that's something that comes across from the crypto market). People don't really behave that rationally either a lot of the time so intentional manipulation is hard to spot and isolate.

An example of the above is how market prices don't go up by a stable amount over a long period of time. Instead, they go up and down ans find new neutral points as more money enters but fewer sells occur/are available (normally).

Not because their decisions mostly cause the markets to move, doesn't automatically mean they're making those decisions to make the markets move a certain way.

There's a reason that Wall Street has a saying, "Don't fight the Fed."  Even when they're dead wrong, like they were with inflation, they still managed to move markets with their speech. 


I think that's exactly why they're making those decisions.  They literally are trying to make markets move in a certain way to stay within their parameters.  The problem is that they're absolutely terrible at it and when you have an Administration like Biden's ignoring their guidance and printing money left and right making it even more difficult, all they can do is quit.  Which is what we saw early in Biden's presidency. 

Whether they raise or lower the interest rate, the market also is going to react to it. And before they announce something like there, there are already people who spoil it on social media about what the FED might actually do next. The FED keeps raising but what is happening in the past few weeks is the opposite of what we expected.

When the FED raises the interest rate, the entire world raises the interest rate. No leaders even told PAL to just shut up and don't announce anything at all.

Obviously, The Fed is literally in control of the demand and supply side using their interest rate report (increase/reducing rates) and with their policies to manipulate the entire market, both cryptos , stocks, and the Forex market etc. The evident is seen in the drastic movement of asset in the market during or immediately after the report, with regards to upwards or downwards movement, if the report is positive or Negative.

 believe that what is happening is due to the effect of the Fed's decisions on the psychological market factors, which are exploited to influence supply and demand, which ultimately influences the price.
If we go back a little, the decisions had no effect, and because they were expected, the market is not affected by them, or the effect is known in advance. As for unexpected decisions, they are what cause a lot of changes in the price.


So the unexpected decisions of the Fed are what make real changes or have an impact on the price, but these unexpected decisions rarely happen.

Arguably, maybe. But more of the fact that they're making the economy specifically move a certain way, and the stock markets moving is just like an aftereffect.

The FED does what the FED does, which in theory is to stop inflation and deflation from going out of hand and achieves this by raising or lowering the interest rates. You cannot blame them for doing their job. The market reacts the way it wants. BTC is not decoupling from the SP500 as far as we can see, so it's just like leveraged SP500.

Now it would be interesting to see how markets would react if there was no FED, some say it would be better and others say without the FED it wouldn't work. In any case, no one is forcing Bitcoin holders react to the FED, and for now it just follows the stock market.

It is that most of the people that are interested on it understands the impact that the FED can make. It's the reaction of the market and it's like a quick glance of the market that we shall see.

So, if the meeting turned something positive then expect that it will also reflect to the market and it will be positive.

And if not, then that only means that it's going to turn the market reaction negatively. There are millions of us that are watching and closely monitoring on it so, it's like a community and market reaction at the same time.

Yea, but only to the certain degree. As I said. 10% doing 90% talking. So if talking is no longer working those 10% means nothing. And we see how its being played out last months. Powell is trying to be hawkish, raising rates, but market is pumping for last 3 months knowing that monetary system is totally out of FED control. They simply made everyone, who believes in their lies sell and now they just tilting at windmills. They control only those dollars that are on their balance sheet. They don't control whole Eurodollar system which is cashless and reserveless (offshore dollars). Simply too many identities all over the world can put new units into circulation. USD is out of control. Especially out of fed control.

"Since the Eurodollar market is not run by any government agency its growth is hard to estimate. However, the Eurodollar market is by a wide margin the largest source of global finance. In 1997, nearly 90% of all international loans were made this way"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar

Try to controll that mr Powell.

As far as I know back a couple years ago bitcoin doesn't have a correlation with traditional market instrument since bitcoin is first of the kind and the market run 24 it very different but I don't know somehow right now bitcoin has a correlation with other traditional investment. maybe it because there so much institutional traders come to crypto

and yeah FED pretty much can make a dozen of profit before they speak up about anything  ;D ;D Sometimes i have imagination I'm insider of the fed i will all in with x1000 leverage before they speak up to the public

Bitcoin is part of the financial industry, in previous years, we did not see any correlation between bitcoin and the traditional market because bitcoin was too small to mention. But now things have changed, and in the future, we will see more correlation and influence of political and financial news affecting the movement of bitcoin.

What you think is possible because we don't know what they are doing behind us, and everyone is greedy, nobody doesn't want a lot of money.

I agree with OP's point, Fed is the biggest shark in the financial market, they can manipulate the market to their will, and this game is theirs.

I don’t think they manipulate markets. They basically say months in advance what they will do. If there is a surprise hike it’s usually because some data made them make that decision such as almost having double digit inflation last year.

Generally what they do Is echoed by other central banks. Usually many of the G7 countries follow what the fed does and their impact is huge on the US dollar and it affects all forms of financial markets pretty much.

And where is the manipulation?
If your government decides on the 17th that it will cut 100k jobs and needs to devaluate the currency is it manipulation of the market or is it simple action taken to ensure the boat doesn't sink? That's one of the roles of the FED, of conducting national monetary policy, that's what it was designed for and this is how it acts when needed, of course it will influence the markets with such decisions because it was supposed to do so!

Too many see that one decision influences the market and think it's some kind of manipulation behind the scene when in fact it's quite clear how they do it why they do it. The market reacts so because just with every trade they are gambling on future prices, and a high increase in rates would normally slow down growth, but here we have optimism that even the increased rate is going up by less than it could and that it's nearing peak so the opposite happens.

Same here. They aren't like the whales who do this for a reason but FED doesn't even do this for the sake of cryptos. It's just that whatever the decisions they have made will also have an impact with cryptos. If they decide to increase the interest rates then the price will suffer badly but if they cut it then that is how this market experience a relief however I don't think they will say if whatever they are planning in advance.

It will not be a surprise then and people can just dodge it because they can prepare early.  I still think that the crypto market doesn't only revolve around FED but there are still many factors out there which can affect it.

You are right, every decision on a sensitive issue will affect the market and not just about FED, many previous predictions said there would be disappointing results from the FED decision but quite the opposite and market participants were very enthusiastic about responding to the news, offers were also increasing which had a positive impact on the market . So the crypto journey continues even though the decision on interest rates has been made this year and there are many other factors impacting the high market increase this year.

It has been the basis as they implement changes right away for the benefit of every market and their economy, many are waiting for this as they usually influenced many countries that can result to a big movement in the market. As they are still facing an economic threat let’s expect more reports to handle this but it looks like we are going on a positive side this time. The FED didn’t manipulate though because its their job to give the report that can benefit their economy and it will depend to other countries to follow it or not.

Yeah, to be honest, I don't like when some political change disrupt the price of an instrument :') because one bad news from them one big candle stick is showed up


Yes and No they don't directly manipulate the market. and yes before the make a decision there is forecast based on data before and current data. But when they meet on that day the final decision can be very different that is why maybe OP is trying to say

They are not manipulators but they hold everything it takes to support USD, which is why it does not impact on crypto alone but one of the highly traded markets of all time, forex, too. We never saw towards the FED meetings before till institutions entered crypto, and now because their money is invested here, they will consider all the points before making or breaking it for crypto alike any other industry they invest in.

It can be said that the Fed is the most influential person in the global financial system, their every action will affect the market trend, and even a small announcement from them can make the market volatile. If you are a forex or stock trader, you will not be unfamiliar with news about the Fed or news related to the US economy, it is considered an important basis for making forecasts for the market. In the crypto market, other than bitcoin, all altcoins are mostly just pumping and dumping games, so people are less inclined to follow macroeconomic news.