Bitcoin Forum

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Interesting.


From the initial proposal to pilot program phase of russia's CBDC program in 2020, it appears 3 years have passed.

From pilot phase to full deployment of russia's CBDC, an additional span of years will be required. It is possible the war in ukraine will end, before russia's CBDC reaches mainstream.

It is known russia has sought to build a banking alternative to the SWIFT system since 2014. We are now seeing development time measured in a span of years with some CBDCs. Venezuela's petro CBDC which still has not materialized despite its initial proposals 5 years ago may serve as a good example.

I am really skeptical if they would make any sensible pilot program working.
But even if they would get it working i wonder if anyone would want to touch it as any proper CBDC needs KYC:ing and most likely people from "unfriendly" countries and members of opposition, people with wrong opinions about Kremilin would instantly get their CBDC rubles frozen and confiscated.

Is not it Russia a country whose internet access is not good for the population who live in the center of the country or in the far east of the country?

I assume if it is the case, the implementation of the CBDC in Russia will only be a reality for those who live in the western part of the country and in big enough cities.

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Also, the Venezuelan Petro was not a CBDC, it was some sort of centralized token allegedly backed by oil.

Russia has been living under ever-increasing international sanctions for almost a year now, and this leaves an imprint on all aspects of the state’s activities, and above all its banking system, given that almost all Russian banks are now disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system. Therefore, they are looking for a way out of the difficult current situation that arose due to the military attack on Ukraine.
At the same time, if the emergence of CBDC in other countries is a completely new and relatively risky project, then in Russia it is doubly risky. And yet little is known about him. Even whether it will use blockchain technology. Of course, the digital ruble can be used in international settlements where it is difficult to do this due to the shutdown of SWIFT. But let's see how it will be in practice.

This means that there are already 2 countries that will conduct CBDC trials in April. namely Russia and Japan.¹
it seems that several countries are indeed motivated to develop and test CBDCs more quickly in 2023. And the Russian state will certainly be even more massive in this regard. because it was motivated by various sanctions imposed on Russia.²

Maybe in this case, Nigeria has already taken the initial step of adopting CBDCs than other countries. although it is said that the adoption rate of CBDC there is running slowly. but it looks like it's going pretty well.³

But in terms of the speed at which digital money adoption (CBDC) spreads it looks like China will have the upper hand. because China has always had strong ambitions and always wanted to be ahead of anything. including in the progress of CBDC adoption they are doing on their currency i.e. Digital Yuan (e-CNY)⁴.

but in my own country, namely Indonesia, it seems that there is still no further news regarding the development of this CBDC. so of course I doubt whether there will be a trial run this year.

but at least hundreds of countries are currently competing in the development of CBDCs. and let's see if the trials that Russia and Japan are doing will be successful. because these two countries seem to be conducting trials in the same month and year, namely April 2023.

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Reference :
1. https://www.liputan6.com/crypto/read/5211451/jepang-bakal-luncurkan-uji-coba-yen-digital-pada-april-2023?source=amp-baca-juga
2. https://pintu.co.id/news/21678-alasan-rusia-adopsi-cbdc-di-tengah-perang
3. https://id.beincrypto.com/pengguna-cbdc-nigeria-baru-capai-05-persen-dari-total-penduduk/
4. https://id.beincrypto.com/sejumlah-negara-percepat-adopsi-cbdc-pada-tahun-2023/

I do not know why so many people are so skeptical that Russia might be able to pull this off, because they have some of the most capable hackers in this world.  ::)  (I am not Russian and I am not a Russian supporter, but I think they have a good chance of doing this)

We can expect huge resistance against all other Crypto currencies, once this is in place.. because Vladimir Putin are very good at eliminating the competition. (sometimes he even use poison)  :P :P :P

I don't know how likely it is that the Russians succeed in developing their planned CBDC and become something new that is of interest. Several other countries have stated the same, and we will likely hear more of these announcements from other countries if Russia and a few others have enough success with CBDCs.

Of course I don't think this has anything to do with Russia's current political situation, but they may be trying to take advantage of the technological developments of the financial system. CBDC will probably be very popular because it is the same financial system as fiat even though it is developed differently. It will be interesting to know how this CBDC supports more people getting involved in the crypto space in the following years.

That's what the governments want around the world! They want to have absolute control on their citizens financial data. Fiat still has some certain degrees of anonymity. But with CBDC, that little bit of anonymity will be permanently gone! Government can do whatever they want! It can be anything from freezing funds to arresting people over high value transactions.

The first country to successfully pilot CBDC was China. One of those authoritarian governments. So the gameplan is very clear!

Russia desperately needs means for the various countries pay for the gas and oil they still manage to sell. And if those payment methods are under the radar, even better.
However, a digital Ruble is imho not the best way forward, since those states will clearly be wary about a coin controlled by Russia both as infrastructure and value. Bitcoin or Monero would have been much better suited for the job.

And related to the population.. we see most of the Russians do whatever they're told to do. So CBDCs for population will be a great success (if no notable errors will be there and some hackers will become billionaires overnight).

It likely became necessary due to the sanctions and the need to easily trade with foreign countries without using the dollars.
Well, it's nice this is going through the pilot phase. It's better to learn from there than implementing it fully with little/no experience or knowledge.

It's important they assume that the sanctions will never be lifted and continue to develop ways to survive and thrive in it. I however don't think Russia will let them take back the regions that have been annexed, which will be against their conditions or requirements for lifting parts of the sanctions.

Russia has been talking about digital currency for a long time, but I don't think it will be some kind of payment method that will help them trade with other countries - because realistically, despite all the sanctions, they manage to trade with countries like China, India or Iran.


It's no secret that CBDC only means more control over finances and the loss of all privacy for ordinary people, so I think that's the main goal. Ordinary people will have the least benefit from it, but as you say, in that country, ordinary people are not asked for their opinion, similarly to China.

I can't see how interest in this from the average citizen will be anything greater than zero. Because it's still a Russian ruble, only in a digital form instead of notes. This will actually make it even less convenient for businesspeople because they have to interact with clients who may not use technology, whereas CDBC requires both parties to have a digital device in order to make any transactions.

Same goes for just about any other CDBC in the world.

No, it's not the same everywhere in the world.
Let's say that the large companies, obviously friendly to the government, will give out the salaries as CBDCs (and this is easily possible in Russia and China). What would the people do?
Some few may move the funds ASAP into something else. But the most will just use/spend them as CBDCs on the daily basis, since "they said on TV that this is the future" and "they have nothing to hide", to give just two easy narratives.

Of course, if you are paid wages in CBDC and CBDC is accepted in the country as payment for goods (works, services), then you will use CBDC.  

The problem is not the very existence of the CBDC as a national payment system.  The problem is that all CBDC alternatives can be banned and destroyed.  

This is what will make it possible to create a digital concentration camp within the country.  

I don't know if it is possible to create a full-fledged, stable CBDC system in Russia.  Russia is now making great efforts to militarize the economy and social life in the country.  

At the same time, the creation of a CBDC system requires large technological resources, which are difficult to find in the conditions of economic degradation.

I don't think Russia needs its CBDC to bypass SWIFT because the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)and Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) are viable alternatives to Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). Trading with Russian CBDC is like using the Ruble which is still facing so many sanctions. I think Russia would do anything to expand its economy and this can be achieved by diversification of its payment system and maximization of diverse economic opportunities. I think Russia has genuine motives for introducing it's own CBDC.

All that CBDC will offer to Russia is to reduce the cost of printing money, but I do not think that many will accept the idea of ​​transformation, especially at the present time, as the lack of confidence will be great, and the central bank is trying to impose control on all transactions.
If success is achieved in using CBDC, then the most important event is linking the currency with the currencies of other countries. If they succeed in establishing an integrated system with China, Brazil and South Africa, then we can say that it is a system that may have a future and that it is worth following up.

They might make for a good case study, but I doubt they will move so far into it. They really have a lot of serious economic problems internally and I don't think CBDCs will be a saving grace for Russia. First off they have to stop whatever they're doing and focus more in developing their relations with the rest of the world. Russia has slowly been restricting themselves as the ally of communist countries, and it's not really working out for them. Before developing a possibly successful CBDC, they have to fix Ruble and make it worth something rather than tank for the most part.

A perfect example of the implementation of what everyone was afraid of is the introduction of total financial control of its citizens in a totalitarian country that is preparing to close the "Iron Curtain" again. Not loyal to the ruling party - the money is blocked! I wrote something on the social network that does not correspond to propaganda - you are without money! I didn’t go to a rally in support of war and terrorism - your money wasted! Do you think how such solutions will be used in countries with a totalitarian regime?

By the way, I congratulate the Russian business as well. Let me explain :) The Kremlin hinted earlier that business should "help the country", that is, pay for the war and terrorism, and business should "collect" more than 300 billion rubles. Voluntarily... But when they assessed the loyalty of the business to the ruling gang, they realized that no one would help voluntarily. And yesterday they issued an order about "compulsory collection of aid" from the business :) And with the CBDC - even orders are not needed - just took and stole from the personal accounts of the business, as much as you lack for terrorism. Comfortable, very :)

The question is not that Russia wants to trade on the international market without using the dollar. It is generally very difficult for her to trade now, since almost all of her banks are cut off from the SWIFT payment system. If Russia issues and uses its own CBDCs, this solves practically nothing, since trading using the digital ruble also requires the involvement of the banking structures of both trading countries. In addition, now other countries do not want to trade with the help of Russian rubles, since this is a currency that is falling due to a failed war. Therefore, Russia's CBDC is unlikely to be successful in the international arena. After all, this is the same non-cash ruble.

Since April 1, this project has been launched in Russia.  It is not yet clear how exactly this will be implemented, that is, it is not clear how exactly people will be selected for testing CBDC. 

I just wrote to the chat of one commercial bank, which, together with the Central Bank of Russia, is participating in this program.  Whatsapp bot forwarded my request to a human operator.  The person - the operator (having read the correspondence) also could not immediately answer me and asked for time to analyze the information. 

Now I'm waiting for a response from a representative of a commercial bank. 

P.S.  There is no official information about the start of the April testing program for the digital ruble by the bank's clients.

CBDC will greatly increase the possibilities and efficiency of cashless payments. Therefore, the interest of citizens and businessmen in national CBDC will be. Such payments, unlike non-cash bank payments, will be almost instantaneous. At the same time, the Central Bank will be able to fully control transactions and, if necessary, block their completion. But in any case, the advantages of CBDC over bank non-cash transactions are obvious.

When i consider the rate Russians have been involved in cryptocurrency, then I don't expect them to introduce CBDC before making decision on weather to adopt bitcoin as legal tender considering the recent experience it had been through during the cause of the ongoing war, adoption of CBDC does not make any difference or something new that best suit the people's interest since bitcoin is the major attraction for digital currency and not digital currency.

I don't see how CBDC shoulld necessarily even be blockchain based. At least in anykind of blockchain we have now. And even if it is, the assets on it don't necessarily have to be permissionless even if the underlying native coin would be. So Bitcoin or regulation of any cryptocurrency doesn't need to have anything to do with it.

Although among other obvious difficulties i already mentioned earlier combined with the brain drain of Russia i am guessing this will be another pointless pilot.

Instead of making up some digital ruble crap they could just embrace Bitcoin instead. There is no real way to filter out all tx made by the Russians and stop/ban them. They could just keep their profit gained by selling fossil fuels in Bitcoin, without withdrawing or converting it to rubles or any other currency. Operating like this, it would be pretty impossible to trace and stop these transactions.

Russian government has embarrassed authoritarianism, so the widespread acceptance of Bitcoin by them is not compatible because of their ideals.

For example, if they adopted Bitcoin they could not seize or freeze the money of some political adversaries and protestors among the Russian population. They want a system which grants them complete control, not Bitcoin.

I agree that bitcoin would never be a solution for them inwards, they could maybe let the citizens use if they have money outside, in order to bring it in inside, like those sanctioned oligarchs and all could just use bitcoin to funnel their money from other nations into Russia, which would be a benefit for them. However, they would never let the little guy use it because Putin doesn't want any competition, they may have elections but they are no different than North Korea, just because they "look" a bit free, doesn't mean they are actually free. China, North Korea and Russia, these are all dictatorships that we need to be careful about, and they will never allow bitcoin, something decentralized, to be accepted widely there.

China has the upper hand because there isn't any separation between central banks, government, and "private" banks. I use private loosely, because the Chinese government has complete control over them even if they're designated as non-state entities. If the Chinese government were so inclined, they could compel all their citizens to use CBDC's. They haven't hesitated to use authoritarianism in the past for compliance and most all banking in China is digitalized so it'd be pretty simple to introduce.

Well, Russia faced heavy sanctions for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as a part of it, many of its banks were cut off from SWIFT. I guess they want to show their own people that they can build something of their own, and a fairly simple way to do it is to launch a CBDC. Also, if they manage to agree with potential allies like China or Iran, that digital currency could come in handy to avoid sanctions and get the trade going. So it seems like a good time to launch something. After all, with the war not going well for Russia, they need other achievements to appease the public.

CBDC is not the easiest way. But most importantly - it does not solve current problems! I already wrote CBDC - this is preparation for the lowering of a new "iron curtain" and total control of the population of Russia. The Kremlin is afraid of growing discontent, growing problems, and the possibility of other countries helping the opposition forces, at least in terms of funding and support. There are only a few options for financing from outside:
- cash
- non-cash funds
- cryptocurrency.

The first two options are already under the total control of the state. The second theme is "double-edged sword". On the one hand, the Kremlin regime wants to use this somehow for cross-border payments. Russia's banking system is increasingly isolated from international financial systems. On the other hand, this mechanism works in both directions, which means that others can receive these funds. But for example, in Russia, in a printing house, you cannot pay for printing services, for example, posters, for bitcoin. So it is necessary to exchange on the stock exchange and withdraw to a card account. Or the option of exchanging for cash through private hands is possible. And this is an uncontrolled process. But any totalitarian regime needs TOTAL control. And then CBDC appears on the screen! The fiat ruble is changed to the CBDC ruble, and that's it - there is control, any suspicious movement - and the funds are frozen!

First of all, highly developed countries will never accept international payments in bitcoins. The risk is very high, and not only due to the high price volatility of bitcoin. CBDCs can partially solve the current payment problem in Russia, almost all of whose banks are cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, especially if the digital ruble is backed by, as stated, gold. But the digital ruble has been talked about in Russia for many years, and all the deadlines for its introduction have not been observed. So it's too early to talk about it. First you need to see this Russian CBDC.

Precisely because bitcoin cannot be tracked and stopped transactions, Russia as a state will never accept it as legal tender on its territory. In any case, this will not happen in the near future. Now the Russian government is coming to the fore to prevent the flight of capital abroad, which is now happening massively due to the failed war in Ukraine. And the introduction of bitcoin or another decentralized cryptocurrency will contribute to the uncontrolled outflow of money abroad. But this is for citizens. No laws are written for the government itself in Russia. Therefore, at the government level, bitcoin can be used, but this will be classified information to the public.