Bitcoin Forum

I just bought my 1st miner (brand new S19j Pro 100th).

I am earning about 30,000 satoshi's on NiceHash daily and that is not exactly life changing money. Especially when you factor in my cost of electricity ($0.10/kw)

I was thinking about solo mining and taking my chances to potentially finding a block (6.25 btc reward).

Where can I calculate my chances of that happening? Would be similar odds to winning the lottery?

https://imgur.com/a/okuASoU

I found my answer. Kinda scary.  :o

Chance per block: 1 in 3,060,512
Chance per day: 1 in 21,254
Time estimate: 58 years

Early morning math so it might be a bit off. With the current difficulty on AVERAGE with 100 TH you should find a block in about 58 years as you said.
But difficulty keeps going up so that  number keeps going up.
It is however luck based. So you may find one tomorrow or you may never find one.

-Dave

this!
so it looks like, the stronger the th/s performance is the higher the chances to mine a BTC-block.
but without trying you also can not win ;)

there have already been cases where a block has been mined with a low th/s performance. most recently with just under 10 th/s...
i personally run my mining farm with ~6.5 th/s and hope for luck ;D

The best attitude for solo mining is: don't expect to ever earn anything. Can you do it? If you can, then you should! (You have other means of income, etc).

So its like playing lottery, and the higher your hashrate, the better your chances. Those 58 years are an average. If you look at the pools history of finding blocks, you will notice they may have bad luck or good luck, same here. What if it takes you twice that? what if it finds it in a year? You never know.

Like i always say, chances are getting lower and lower (with diff increase), but its never zero.

A larger hash rate is suitable for this...

Yeah, that sounds more like a lottery. You should also take into account the halvings, so for example in just a year you'll earn only 3.125BTC and in 4 years only 1.56BTC for finding a block so the longer you mine the smaller is the reward. And yes, there is a chance of not finding a block at all... :(

Kinda old thread, but...

I 've been thinking of doing the same, but I wanted to ask, have you seen a significant increase on your power bill? I assume that you must be using R909 or Gekkoscience USB miners. If anything else, I 'd like it if you wanted to share your experience.

If you use USB miners, then the miners write that they consume no more than 10-15 dollars per year and an increase in the bill per month by 1 dollar will not be very noticeable. But another problem for these miners is that not all pools support such devices with low hashrate and you are unlikely to catch a block solo. But you will have a great time setting up the equipment and with experience you will tell how you mined bitcoins.

Thanks mate. I ve been thinking of it more like a lottery actually. Something like a "set it and forget it" thing running at home. And if by any luck I hit a block, then I will never forget it in my life. I thought about running some Gekkoscience USBs that reach 400GH/s. Have you tried it?

the electricity bill goes up, of course, but what don't you do to (as FP91G already wrote) understand mining yourself with your own self-configured minig-rig - the whole thing gives you so much new experience, you can hardly believe it

and as for equipment i currently have 2x r909 miners and 6x gekko f sticks running - the whole thing is currently generating ~6.9 th/s and my bestshare is 77g 8)

I 've been thinking of doing the same. Thanks, I will, at some point, purchase some gekko f usb sticks to start. I will obviously mine solo. And you never know! Perhaps I get ultra lucky. But in case I don't get lucky (which is almost certain, no harm done.

@apogio if i were you, i would think about buying the new bitaxeUltra miner, which has the bm1366 chip integrated (like the s19xp). at 500gh/s and a power consumption of ~15watt, it would definitely be worth considering.
here you can find the original thread👉The bitaxeUltra: Open source Bitcoin miner based on the BM1366 ASIC (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5460574.0)

and under the following link you will find various offers such as a diy kit or a complete package:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/10/04/PKQTC.png

https://d-central.tech/product-category/others/ (https://d-central.tech/product-category/others/)

Brilliant! That's definitely a good choice for a noob like me. I will check the thread to figure out which parts I need to buy to assemble the miner at home. Thanks