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Economy => Economics => Topic started by: stompix on May 07, 2023, 02:18:06 PM



Title: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: stompix on May 07, 2023, 02:18:06 PM
Over the past months, we have been bombarded with articles about the global de-dollarisation, how countries will quit using the USD, how the petrodollar is doomed, how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped, how the Zimbabwean dollar, the Argentian peso, the bolivar, the Iranian rial and other, can we even all them currencies? will definitely replace the dollar for trade settlements. And, if you're not so bright, it makes perfect sense, the evil greenback is holding the economies of emergent countries down, it's not corruption, it's not stupidity, it's not the lack of planning, the one who is to blame is the $.

So, some  leaders have come up with the idea, let's trade in our currency and prosper! Except for the fact that when you leave the realm of politics and propaganda for your voters and you enter the realm of economy, well, shit happens!
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/in-focus/story/we-need-to-use-this-money-russia-says-it-is-unable-to-utilise-billions-of-indian-rupees-380345-2023-05-07

And the whole thing is pretty simple:
- there is no perfect trade balance between two countries, one will run a trade deficit with the other so one will end with a ton of useless monopoly money
- in order to use the monopoly money to trade with country C it would need to either convert them to a hard currency that everyone wants like the $,  or to the other country's fiat but at this point, you would have to trick them into accepting your surplus useless currency and who would want that?

Anyone who has read a bit of history would know about the Weimar inflation, it was caused mainly because Germany printed monopoly money to exchange them for $, and thus their own currency failed, because nobody wanted the Papiermark. And this is where we arrive to exactly the bilateral India-Russia trade:

Quote
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday said that Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can’t use. This is a problem, Lavrov told reporters in Goa on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, reported Bloomberg.
“We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now,” he said, as per the report.

Simple as that, ruble-rupee trade is good until you need to use all those money, and for the use, you have to exchange it into a trustable currency, at which point you realize nobody is taking monopoly money India can print unrestrained for good old $!

The chances of more countries using their useless fiat in order to settle trades?
Just as much as every single one of you denying a Bitcoin payment and choosing to be paid in PooGrow, which is an actual coin (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/poogrow), btw!


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: SamReomo on May 07, 2023, 04:47:14 PM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value. Quitting of dollar doesn't makes sense because it's currently the internationally acceptable currency and can be used anywhere in the world without any issue. It's the most useful currency out there and without it I can't even imagine that how would they do trades. Their own fiat currencies can be used bilaterally but that currency won't be acceptable globally.

Well that was a pretty bad decision by Germany and their printing devalued the currency very badly. Their idea of printing infinite amount of notes worked against their plan and in order to purchase any thing they would have to carry many bundles of notes in bags.

Quote
The chances of more countries using their useless fiat in order to settle trades?
Just as much as every single one of you denying a Bitcoin payment and choosing to be paid in PooGrow, which is an actual coin (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/poogrow), btw!

As long as their fiat is traded in their own countries or against dollar we can't consider that useless. You sense of humor is quite good but no body would every accept payments in PooGrow until its grown to acceptable levels. And, anything can happen in crypto-world because a useless meme coin can be acceptable by Tesla than why not PooGrow? That makes sense if you put it into an equation like that otherwise RIP PooGrow.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Silberman on May 07, 2023, 06:01:15 PM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value. Quitting of dollar doesn't makes sense because it's currently the internationally acceptable currency and can be used anywhere in the world without any issue. It's the most useful currency out there and without it I can't even imagine that how would they do trades. Their own fiat currencies can be used bilaterally but that currency won't be acceptable globally.
Russia and other countries which have interests opposite to the US believe the dollar and its status as the world reserve currency of the world and as the petrodollar gives too much power to the US, and they are right, so they want to take that power away by using their own currencies to trade among them, however as much as we complain about the US printing too much money and the like, China, Russia and other countries are even worse currency manipulators than the US, which means they do not even trust each other when it comes to those exchanges on their local currencies, meaning this model seems destined to fail.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: EarnOnVictor on May 07, 2023, 06:30:59 PM
I will summarise my reply because I might write an epistle if I should reply in full as it burns in me. Frankly, any currency is free to replace the USD if they dare to but I must assure you that they will always fail. The USD is the perfect no. 1 currency for the world's jobs as I know, it's jealous countries and haters that are behind this propaganda called a project to reduce the dominance of the USD.

For what? I don't really know. This is not child's play, "the USD makes the world go round."

Furthermore, is there any serious project aiming to limit the power and influence of the USD? I bet there is none. What China, Russia and any allied countries are doing is not realizable as they do not have the economic status to achieve that. The USD did not align with countries or beg them to take the mantle of leadership, it's the world that chose it due to its stance of stability and dependability.

China is the anchor of this, and of course, Russia is desperate, but anything planned under ganging up rather than letting economic demands be natural would not stand.



Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: jacafbiz on May 07, 2023, 07:09:42 PM
I believe Dedollarisation is in work, and it is been tested now example is the India-Russia trade agreement to trade in their local currencies. The issue now is that the Dollar monopoly was built over the years and it would take  real work to work out real alternatives, Dollar is causing a lot of havoc to third-world economies all over the world and countries will look for ways to protect themselves, I think America is the only real loser here, if it works, good for them bad for America and if it doesn't work these countries will stick to statoquo


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: yhiaali3 on May 07, 2023, 08:52:25 PM
Dedollarisation is not impossible, but the appropriate international climate has not yet been created for it, meaning that until now there is no global currency alternative to the dollar accepted by all countries of the world.

But if we look at history, this is not impossible, because before the dominance of the dollar, there was the pound sterling and the French franc, a dominant currency in the world in the nineteenth century. Of course, the reason is clear. England and France were the dominant powers in the world at that time.

Therefore, personally, I believe that Dedollarisation cannot be removed unless the United States collapses economically or loses its control over the world, as happened with England and France.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: hatshepsut93 on May 07, 2023, 10:36:32 PM
how the petrodollar is doomed

Originally "petrodollar" was just a name for dollars that are used for oil trade, but then someone came up with a theory that all USD value holds on this oil trade, and if countries will switch to other currency, USD will collapse. This theory completely ignore all other international trade conducted in USD, which is far bigger than just oil trade.

how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped

That's also a narrative without proper backing, why would US economy collapse if international trade will switch to other currency? Inflation alone can not kill economy, and it's not even clear that the supposed dedolarization will cause massive inflation.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Sayeds56 on May 08, 2023, 07:19:22 AM

Originally "petrodollar" was just a name for dollars that are used for oil trade, but then someone came up with a theory that all USD value holds on this oil trade, and if countries will switch to other currency, USD will collapse. This theory completely ignore all other international trade conducted in USD, which is far bigger than just oil trade.

That's also a narrative without proper backing, why would US economy collapse if international trade will switch to other currency? Inflation alone can not kill economy, and it's not even clear that the supposed dedolarization will cause massive inflation.

You are correct that the term "petrodollar" was referred to dollars earned from the sale of crude oil in international trade. However, this concept evolved overtime, and now it is widely perceived that US dollar value influenced by demand for oil. Therefore, In case of any shift from dollar to any other currency or basket of currencies, could potentially have significant impact on value the of dollar and US economy.

Inflation is a complex issue and it is influenced by number of factors including devaluation of currency, and it is not yet clear how dedollarisation  will affect US dollar.



Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: stompix on May 08, 2023, 07:38:45 AM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value.

Years of brainwashing from their inapt governments blamed everything on external factors, not on their corruption, stupidity, and lack of innovation to keep up with the rest of the world. It's easier to say $ is bad than acknowledge your own mistakes.

Dollar is causing a lot of havoc to third-world economies all over the world and countries will look for ways to protect themselves,

Ok, please explain how the dollar is causing havoc in third-world economies and it's the dollar's fault not the fault of those economies?
While you're at it you might explain why a far larger percentage of the population in said countries is keeping their savings in $, unlike people in Western Europe or East Asia? When your own population is trusting more a foreign currency than your own, it's a clear sign the problem is elsewhere, right in your own backyard.

China is the anchor of this, and of course, Russia is desperate, but anything planned under ganging up rather than letting economic demands be natural would not stand.

Well said, it's Comecon once more, with the same mistakes but with far fewer advantages.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Poker Player on May 08, 2023, 12:38:27 PM
Lol. I am surprised the OP hasn't got any single merit for the thread, I am out atm.

Anyone who has read a bit of history would know about the Weimar inflation, it was caused mainly because Germany printed monopoly money to exchange them for $, and thus their own currency failed, because nobody wanted the Papiermark. And this is where we arrive to exactly the bilateral India-Russia trade:

...

Simple as that, ruble-rupee trade is good until you need to use all those money, and for the use, you have to exchange it into a trustable currency, at which point you realize nobody is taking monopoly money India can print unrestrained for good old $!

In other words, we often insist on seeing the defects of the dollar or the euro and how much is printed but without seeing the overall picture, which is that most currencies are even worse, some much worse.

Over the past months, we have been bombarded with articles about the global de-dollarisation, how countries will quit using the USD, how the petrodollar is doomed, how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped, how the Zimbabwean dollar, the Argentian peso, the bolivar, the Iranian rial and other, can we even all them currencies?

We can but I would call them garbage currencies, further emphasiing their junkiness.

I think I agree with you, OP, but not because I think the dollar as the fiat currency that it is is very good, it is just much less bad than the others.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: m2017 on May 08, 2023, 01:40:45 PM
~snip
They have been talking about dedollarization for quite a long time and are trying, sort of, to implement it. But look at any country - no one has yet been able to bring this to life. Why? Yes, everything is very simple. At the moment there are no adequate alternatives to the dollar. Let this be a bad option, but they could not think of anything better.

I will immediately be objected on this forum that there is an alternative and this is bitcoin. Yes, I agree, this is a great alternative, which I also like, but I have doubts whether bitcoin will be used as a replacement for the dollar in the world. It is easier for countries to create and control something of their own, rather than a decentralized and free digital currency, most of which is already in foreign (whale) hands. Whoever has the most concentrated BTC will have more strength, weight and power. Countries and governments will not want to share this with who knows who.

I expect that all these attempts at dedollarization are expected to fail in the near future, and as we see in the example of the ruble and rupee, the countries are not able to implement this in any way.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: serveria.com on May 08, 2023, 02:46:02 PM
Over the past months, we have been bombarded with articles about the global de-dollarisation, how countries will quit using the USD, how the petrodollar is doomed, how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped, how the Zimbabwean dollar, the Argentian peso, the bolivar, the Iranian rial and other, can we even all them currencies? will definitely replace the dollar for trade settlements. And, if you're not so bright, it makes perfect sense, the evil greenback is holding the economies of emergent countries down, it's not corruption, it's not stupidity, it's not the lack of planning, the one who is to blame is the $.

So, some  leaders have come up with the idea, let's trade in our currency and prosper! Except for the fact that when you leave the realm of politics and propaganda for your voters and you enter the realm of economy, well, shit happens!
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/in-focus/story/we-need-to-use-this-money-russia-says-it-is-unable-to-utilise-billions-of-indian-rupees-380345-2023-05-07

And the whole thing is pretty simple:
- there is no perfect trade balance between two countries, one will run a trade deficit with the other so one will end with a ton of useless monopoly money
- in order to use the monopoly money to trade with country C it would need to either convert them to a hard currency that everyone wants like the $,  or to the other country's fiat but at this point, you would have to trick them into accepting your surplus useless currency and who would want that?

Anyone who has read a bit of history would know about the Weimar inflation, it was caused mainly because Germany printed monopoly money to exchange them for $, and thus their own currency failed, because nobody wanted the Papiermark. And this is where we arrive to exactly the bilateral India-Russia trade:

Quote
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday said that Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can’t use. This is a problem, Lavrov told reporters in Goa on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, reported Bloomberg.
“We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now,” he said, as per the report.

Simple as that, ruble-rupee trade is good until you need to use all those money, and for the use, you have to exchange it into a trustable currency, at which point you realize nobody is taking monopoly money India can print unrestrained for good old $!

The chances of more countries using their useless fiat in order to settle trades?
Just as much as every single one of you denying a Bitcoin payment and choosing to be paid in PooGrow, which is an actual coin (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/poogrow), btw!

I don't think dedollarisation is failing. More like it's in initial embryo stage and many things have to be done for the first time which makes things harder. I don't think in times of digital money there can be any issue with exchanging money. I don't think India really pays in paper money which is being held in a vault? They can sell rupees to some other country doing trade with India or pay for Indian goods etc. Or, even better, they can buy Bitcoin and then sell Bitcoin for rubles.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Faisal2202 on May 08, 2023, 05:43:38 PM
Over the past months, we have been bombarded with articles about the global de-dollarisation, how countries will quit using the USD, how the petrodollar is doomed, how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped, how the Zimbabwean dollar, the Argentian peso, the bolivar, the Iranian rial and other, can we even all them currencies?
So you are talking about "BRICS" and yeah we have seen so many articles and videos on BRICS and how many other countries are willing to join these 5 countries (BRICS) single trade currency, i don't think the dollar can lose its value due to BRICS because it has set the great base from its origin and USA has made many bold moves to keep their dollar save (i don't want to talk about of bold moves) so what i think they will resist BRICS in some way. For more details you can read this article (https://dailyhodl.com/2023/05/05/us-responds-to-massive-brics-expansion-effort-as-nations-push-to-ditch-dollar)

Plus, i don't think solely Russia could devalue the Dollar by taking trade money in INR (Indian currency), that's why they are organizing big countries to come together so that an impact could be made on the dollar.

I am wondering, why Russia can't trade INR to use them, as there are financial restrictions from many firms on Russia due to war as stated above but why can't they just convert them, it indicated that in BRICS Russia is a weak point and i think until Russia don't settle the war, there will be no implementation of BRICS currency. And the USA does realize that.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 08, 2023, 06:08:05 PM
Instead of a thousand words:
  - India buys oil from Russia for INR. True, due to fraud in prices (the "merit" of Indian corrupt officials) - the price in dollars is high (this is a topic for a separate conversation).
But in fact, Russia does not RECEIVE dollars. She gets - RUPEE.
This is the beginning of the joke, and now the main thing:

- India PROHIBITED the financial system of India to convert for Russia, the rupees that Russia has into DOLLARS!  ;D This is what "fraternal help of the fraternal people" looks like.

The problem is that many, for some reason, decided that China and India really decided to abandon the dollar? Do you think they are idiots? No - idiots are those who now refuse the "healthy dollar", and kill the economy of their countries with the "sick yuan". Soon everyone will see how it all ends - the Chinese trap will slam shut ... India, having lost interest in Russia, will "wipe its feet on it" ... And leave it with a bunch of illiquid rupees. At the same time, do not forget - India resells Russian oil mixed with other varieties - for DOLLARS! Do you feel the grace of "chess composition"? East is a delicate matter ! :)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: tjtonmoy on May 08, 2023, 07:12:58 PM
Either one or both of the currency needs to be accepted worldwide as dollar, or there's no chance that they can replace the dollar with it. Which is not possible in a short period of time. Maybe in a long run, they can show progress, but these kinds of sudden acceptance will not take it far. And the main problem is they can just print money to exchange for other country's currency. Which is the problem, is being stated in the OP.
But one solution can be Bitcoin. But with the high volatility, I don't think any country will accept it suddenly to do international trades. But if they do, it could be a possible solution to this problem.
And I don't think it is that much necessary to de-dollarize the world.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: o48o on May 08, 2023, 07:29:08 PM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value. Quitting of dollar doesn't makes sense because it's currently the internationally acceptable currency and can be used anywhere in the world without any issue. It's the most useful currency out there and without it I can't even imagine that how would they do trades. Their own fiat currencies can be used bilaterally but that currency won't be acceptable globally.
Because of the war and the sanctions? That's only reason needed. Plus Russia wants to destabilize west, it always has.

Countries that have sanctions want to trade and that won't be happening when dollar is the centre of everything. Obviously sanctioned countries want their own system that can't be halted by any other entity. But that's easier said than done and i don't think they can make it work.



Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: be.open on May 08, 2023, 08:20:48 PM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value. Quitting of dollar doesn't makes sense because it's currently the internationally acceptable currency and can be used anywhere in the world without any issue. It's the most useful currency out there and without it I can't even imagine that how would they do trades. Their own fiat currencies can be used bilaterally but that currency won't be acceptable globally.
Because of the war and the sanctions? That's only reason needed. Plus Russia wants to destabilize west, it always has.

Countries that have sanctions want to trade and that won't be happening when dollar is the centre of everything. Obviously sanctioned countries want their own system that can't be halted by any other entity. But that's easier said than done and i don't think they can make it work.

After the imposition of the sanction, India began to buy a lot of oil from Russia and there was a strong imbalance in the trade balance. Under such conditions, interaction within the framework of a bilateral swap of national currencies has ceased to suit Russia, it simply does not need so many Indian rupees, and it also does not want to strengthen its ruble (for obvious reasons, for every export-oriented country). One possible solution is to increase the import of Indian goods to Russia in order to even out the imbalance in the trade balance. There are other options, such as gold. Judging by Bloomberg's weekly statistics, the supply of Russian oil to India has not stopped, which means that the parties have found a way to negotiate with each other.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: slapper on May 09, 2023, 06:44:06 AM
Ah, another economic masterstroke ignoring trade's fundamentals. Why not print wads of cash, hoping to fix everything? Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany loved it, right? Don't forget propaganda's magic, convincing folks our funny money is gold. Celeb endorsements, a catchy tune - it'll be huge! But really, who'd use a currency that's trash outside its borders? Like buying groceries with Monopoly bucks - it might fly in your fantasyland, but reality? Not a chance.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 09, 2023, 07:42:48 AM
I agree with you, I don't know why everyone is going against the dollar and they just want the dollar to lose its value. Quitting of dollar doesn't makes sense because it's currently the internationally acceptable currency and can be used anywhere in the world without any issue. It's the most useful currency out there and without it I can't even imagine that how would they do trades. Their own fiat currencies can be used bilaterally but that currency won't be acceptable globally.
Because of the war and the sanctions? That's only reason needed. Plus Russia wants to destabilize west, it always has.

Countries that have sanctions want to trade and that won't be happening when dollar is the centre of everything. Obviously sanctioned countries want their own system that can't be halted by any other entity. But that's easier said than done and i don't think they can make it work.


Wow! Finally, someone dared to name the true reason for all these squeals "it is necessary to abandon the dollar"! Here it is the main reason - the inability for rogue countries to exist in the civilized world, and play by the accepted rules! That's the whole point of stuffing about the dollar, or rather its "weakness", lately :)
But the joke is that a group of "helping the sufferers of sanctions" has also formed, which, under the guise of help, actually uses the situation to its advantage - for example, to buy a lot of cheap oil from Russia, selling them, for example, Indian rupees for oil, banning them change to dollars! In the people it is called "to breed a sucker"!
But here is another nuance - Russia will be "used" and thrown into the dustbin of history. But what will happen to those who, on a wave of hysteria, abandoned the dollar and transferred their entire external economy to the yuan? These countries are really pitiful ....


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Yanalli on May 09, 2023, 08:06:01 AM
I think it is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, similarly, it is impossible to replace the international English language-everyone uses it, on every jar of sweet water translated by this language. Of course, they can reduce the impact, but they can only really be seen in the distant future.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Synchronice on May 09, 2023, 10:56:44 AM
The problem is that dollar has roots deep inside, so deep that some people and countries can't even imagine. The whole world economy depends on the USD, we measure everything in USD because the internet and modern world connects us worldwide and America with English language is a global leader in economy, military and so on. This is something that no one can stop.

While it's true that dollar has an symbiotic relationship with countries and America enormously benefits via it by importing its own inflation and exporting one's economic growth, the problem is that you can't get rid of it.

As I see lately, countries like Russia and China are increasing their gold reserves but I don't get one thing, America, Germany and western countries have the highest gold reserves, so, what's the point? Still no one can escape from these claws.

The chances of more countries using their useless fiat in order to settle trades?
Just as much as every single one of you denying a Bitcoin payment and choosing to be paid in PooGrow, which is an actual coin (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/poogrow), btw!
This is probably personal. Please, explain, what's wrong with Ethereum? What's wrong with Monero? And please explain, why don't we want to increase block size or implement lighting network or any other solution? Why are all of you so futuristic and so conservative at the same time? Futuristic because cryptocurrencies are future and you support it but conservative because you can't or don't want to understand that the current bitcoin infrastructure isn't perfect and needs change, if it won't change, people will change their choice.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 09, 2023, 05:34:50 PM
I think it is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, similarly, it is impossible to replace the international English language-everyone uses it, on every jar of sweet water translated by this language. Of course, they can reduce the impact, but they can only really be seen in the distant future.

You see - you understand, adequately assess, really look at the situation ...
And for those who are left out of civilization, an adequate society, legality and rules, they want to come up with a fairy tale for themselves, so that at least in a fairy tale they are "happy and rich" .... And not reality - where they are dependent on the Western and developed world, where they have no place where they are no longer allowed ... At the same time, the population of rogue countries know that their own rulers, who tell how "the west is rotting" and "the dollar is worthless" - they moved their wives and children there, to the west , assets, and money stolen from the same population are stored in dollars in the west .... And they are disgusted ... And since they are afraid to admit the truth, and even more so to fix the situation (slave ideology, protects its owner and is afraid of him) - they begin to deceive themselves. This is a primitive defensive reaction. For example, this is how children from lumpinized families behave - poor, degraded, drunken ... When they play in the common yard with their peers who have normal families and lives, these children feel offended. And they either begin to lie, which is also good for them, and fantasize. Or vice versa - to deny that it is good to live in a rich successful family - this is evil and not good. Or the third option - they collect lumpen like themselves and begin to "revenge" those who live well - to do meanness, nasty things on the sly, write insults on the walls, call names, "spit in the back from around the corner" ...

And now compare the described manifestations with the behavior of the countries and peoples of the outcasts - a complete copy only on a larger scale :)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Smartprofit on May 10, 2023, 06:04:57 PM
I think it is impossible to completely abandon the dollar, similarly, it is impossible to replace the international English language-everyone uses it, on every jar of sweet water translated by this language. Of course, they can reduce the impact, but they can only really be seen in the distant future.

Countries that actively export goods, works and services are not interested in the growth of the price of their national currency against the US dollar. 

There is an anecdote about the elusive cowboy Joe.  He was an elusive cowboy because no one needed him and no one even tried to catch him.))) 

The situation is similar with the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee and other similar national currencies - they do not even try to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. 

Therefore, it does not make any sense to use these currencies in cross-border trade, because countries have the intention of trading not with one country, but with many different countries.  To do this, they need a strong and widely accepted global currency, like the US dollar.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Alpha Marine on May 10, 2023, 10:32:16 PM
Simple as that, ruble-rupee trade is good until you need to use all those money, and for the use, you have to exchange it into a trustable currency, at which point you realize nobody is taking monopoly money India can print unrestrained for good old $!
I remember emphasizing this during that period. It was funny people actually believe it was going to actually work, especially in this short period of time. It's really funny.
It was too obvious that this is how things will play out.
What's even funnier was the fact that their biggest strategy was to paint the dollar as the cause of all economic ruin in the world. They tried to paint the Chinese yuan and Russian Ruble as better than the dollar. How did people even buy that?

Countries that actively export goods, works and services are not interested in the growth of the price of their national currency against the US dollar. 
This is true.
It's countries that import a lot that gets affected the most by the dollar rate. There are countries that import almost everything and the dollar rate affects everything thereby leading to inflation.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 12, 2023, 09:54:46 AM
This is true.
It's countries that import a lot that gets affected the most by the dollar rate. There are countries that import almost everything and the dollar rate affects everything thereby leading to inflation.

Those. it is logical to assume that now they are screaming about "rejection of the dollar", namely those countries that do not have strong and stable, competitive or self-sufficient economies!
And now the picture becomes absolutely transparent and understandable :)
Instead of building a normal economy, having high-quality economic relations, some countries have driven themselves into a dead end from which there is no way out, and decided to "choose the one responsible for all the problems." The problems that they themselves created, and now when the population of their countries begins to ask "uncomfortable questions" - they have prepared the answer "the dollar is to blame for everything" :)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Gyfts on May 12, 2023, 03:22:38 PM
The problem is that dollar has roots deep inside, so deep that some people and countries can't even imagine. The whole world economy depends on the USD, we measure everything in USD because the internet and modern world connects us worldwide and America with English language is a global leader in economy, military and so on. This is something that no one can stop.

While it's true that dollar has an symbiotic relationship with countries and America enormously benefits via it by importing its own inflation and exporting one's economic growth, the problem is that you can't get rid of it.

As I see lately, countries like Russia and China are increasing their gold reserves but I don't get one thing, America, Germany and western countries have the highest gold reserves, so, what's the point? Still no one can escape from these claws.

The U.S. economy has roots all over the world which gives USD its competitive advantage, but it's not worth holding onto a currency that's inflating so quickly even if holding onto USD gives access to the U.S. economy. Recent USD inflation reports suggest there's a downward trend so things seem to be normalizing but IMO the damage is already done. Russia and China increased their gold reserves but, more importantly, they dumped USD from their reserves. It doesn't matter what other countries have in their currency reserves, only that Russia and China can hold onto something more stable.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Uruhara on May 12, 2023, 04:24:48 PM
Although international trade still will not be separated from the dominance of the dollar in the near future. But at least now more and more countries are starting to conduct international trade using the local currency of their respective countries. Starting from the countries that are members of BRICS and now ASEAN is also following the steps taken by BRICS. well it's not going to be a year or two until the dollar is finally abandoned. but if this continues then in the next 10 years maybe Dedollarization will really start to materialize.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: woez on May 12, 2023, 06:24:20 PM
If pays attention to the direction of the de-dollarization concept, it refers to reducing dependence on the US dollar as the dominant currency in international trade and finance. Russia and India have previously expressed interest in increasing trade in their local currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar, but these efforts have faced challenges. One such challenge is the limited acceptance of this currency in international trade and finance. Yes, it's very likely that Dedollarization failed before it even started as you mentioned.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Flexystar on May 12, 2023, 06:46:21 PM
This is really good one. I never doubted the dollar and never will. I think those who are not aware, dollar is ruling the world due to the fact that it’s controlled by largest economic country in the world followed by some of the strictest regulators around us.

Come on guys, just put down the thought of having dedollarisation. I don’t know how one can even coin this term in the first place. Whenever I see someone talking about “another currency they know” apart from their local currency then the first word in their mouth would be “DOLLAR”. 

So come on just stop the buzz about de-dollar huh?


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: kryptqnick on May 13, 2023, 07:40:49 AM
I didn't take the dedollarisation seriously in the first place, so I'm not surprised it's failing, but I thank op for sharing news on how it's going. The only currency that has some chance of growing is perhaps the Chinese Yuan, but even that won't be enough because it can work for regional trade at best, and even there only if all the others agree to use it instead of pushing their local fiats (which isn't likely because while China is a bigger friend than Western countries, it's also already a very strong power in that region which others probably don't want to become even stronger).


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 13, 2023, 07:57:24 AM
If pays attention to the direction of the de-dollarization concept, it refers to reducing dependence on the US dollar as the dominant currency in international trade and finance. Russia and India have previously expressed interest in increasing trade in their local currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar, but these efforts have faced challenges. One such challenge is the limited acceptance of this currency in international trade and finance. Yes, it's very likely that Dedollarization failed before it even started as you mentioned.

Those. you want to say essentially the following: India and Russia, they say - let's stick our hand in boiling water? And both put their hand into a pot of boiling water! And such - oh, but it's hot there! Oh, we're on fire!? Those. they BEFORE this idiotic act did not think about the difficulties? Approach to business "in Russian" - first do, then think  ;D ;D ;D
In fact, India and China are not going to abandon the dollar - their economy is heavily dependent on the West! And for rupees in the West, no one will sell / buy anything. Rupees can only be "sucked in" by your northern neighbor, who rushes between idiotic and completely idiotic actions :)
China has a different goal - to dedollarize its "servants" and put them on the Yuan. And this is not for the sake of "fighting the dollar", it is for the sake of saving the Chinese economy at the expense of stupid "friends". And they themselves continue to use the dollar as they used to.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Aanuoluwatofunmi on May 15, 2023, 12:17:07 PM
I will summarise my reply because I might write an epistle if I should reply in full as it burns in me. Frankly, any currency is free to replace the USD if they dare to but I must assure you that they will always fail. The USD is the perfect no. 1 currency for the world's jobs as I know, it's jealous countries and haters that are behind this propaganda called a project to reduce the dominance of the USD.

To add to what you've said, USD is the only central and most reserved currency in the world and the economy has been made such a way that USD is the highest bids for currency in the world, you can consider the rate of Pounds to USD but yet the USD has dominated Pounds despite the higher rate with Pounds every where.

For what? I don't really know. This is not child's play, "the USD makes the world go round."

Everywhere you go around the world, you will discover that USD is more acceptable and dominant than any other foreign currencies.

The USD did not align with countries or beg them to take the mantle of leadership, it's the world that chose it due to its stance of stability and dependability.

Though there have been several attempts to engage doing such but none has ever prevail because USD is the highest global economy currency standard every other countries uses to rate their own base on the economy values, so these countries mentioned can achieved nothing than agitation.





Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Sithara007 on May 16, 2023, 06:07:28 AM
Being an Indian, I need to say this to the Indian government: "you can't have your cake and eat it too". They are already receiving crude oil from Russia, at a discount of $5 to $10 per barrel. Now they want to settle trade in Indian Rupee. The problem is that the trade deficit between India and Russia is too huge and billions of USD worth of Rupees have been accumulated in Russian reserves. Now they can't use this money. Russia wanted to settle the trade using CNY, but the Indian government opposed it. Now most of the trade is being done using AED (United Arab Emirates Dirham) and some are settled using CHF (Swiss Franc).


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on May 16, 2023, 08:37:16 AM
Being an Indian, I need to say this to the Indian government: "you can't have your cake and eat it too". They are already receiving crude oil from Russia, at a discount of $5 to $10 per barrel. Now they want to settle trade in Indian Rupee. The problem is that the trade deficit between India and Russia is too huge and billions of USD worth of Rupees have been accumulated in Russian reserves. Now they can't use this money. Russia wanted to settle the trade using CNY, but the Indian government opposed it. Now most of the trade is being done using AED (United Arab Emirates Dirham) and some are settled using CHF (Swiss Franc).



And here you will overtake the truth and reality :)

The UAE - in a VERY SMALL volume trade with Russia in their own currency, and this is extremely easy to check. At the same time, they also prevent Russia from exchanging it for the DOLLAR, which is vital for Russia. It is the UAE that buys some goods from Russia for local currency, but not dollars - because. otherwise the UAE is waiting for sanctions and many other problems that they do not want.

"Russia wanted to regulate trade in Chinese yuan, but this was opposed by the government of India." - Russia does not care about India, China is its ruler and not India :) And Russia is inundated with yuan, which also now does not know what to do with. The only way out is to buy Chinese consumer goods, because. high-tech goods cannot be sold - SANCTIONS :)

The Swiss franc is used in volumes even smaller than the UAE dirham, and not through Swiss banks, which, like any adequate country, opposed terrorists and supported sanctions.

All of the above is checked, unlike your fantasies :)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: stompix on June 09, 2023, 02:32:26 PM
At this point, the whole dollarization is just becoming one huge funny fail that shows what a clusterfuck this selc called whole new world order is.

So, we have Russia that wants to sell oil to India but it doesn't want rupees, since you can't do shit with rupees outside India.
Russia wants Yuans because it buys stuff from China, but India doesn't want to use the currency of, guess what their fellow BRICS member but also their economic enemy and even more, a country that wants a piece or more of land from India. Quite the solid alliance, right?

So, what is the way out of this mess (https://thediplomat.com/2023/05/end-of-the-road-for-india-and-russias-rupee-ruble-trade/)?
They will use the UAE dirham! Glory! Victory! The dollar is dead!
But..
The UAE dirham is basically pegged to the value of the USD, so, they are back using the dollar as reference value.

Imagine what's in their mind when after all that propaganda they were forced to basically get their tails between their legs and return to trade in currency which basically reflects the value of the $ and is subject to any variance triggered by actions in the US. I'm curious if they will try any other move for a while after getting humiliated in such a way.




Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: DrBeer on June 09, 2023, 08:03:26 PM
The problem is that dollar has roots deep inside, so deep that some people and countries can't even imagine. The whole world economy depends on the USD, we measure everything in USD because the internet and modern world connects us worldwide and America with English language is a global leader in economy, military and so on. This is something that no one can stop.

While it's true that dollar has an symbiotic relationship with countries and America enormously benefits via it by importing its own inflation and exporting one's economic growth, the problem is that you can't get rid of it.

As I see lately, countries like Russia and China are increasing their gold reserves but I don't get one thing, America, Germany and western countries have the highest gold reserves, so, what's the point? Still no one can escape from these claws.

The U.S. economy has roots all over the world which gives USD its competitive advantage, but it's not worth holding onto a currency that's inflating so quickly even if holding onto USD gives access to the U.S. economy. Recent USD inflation reports suggest there's a downward trend so things seem to be normalizing but IMO the damage is already done. Russia and China increased their gold reserves but, more importantly, they dumped USD from their reserves. It doesn't matter what other countries have in their currency reserves, only that Russia and China can hold onto something more stable.

Here you say "throw away the dollars", and at the same time "use something else"... Don't you think this is a perfect example of the word "dissonance"? :)

The yuan is stable ? Rupees ? Or maybe, oh sorry, the ruble ?

You'll laugh, but the reality shows that both India and China, manipulating the market, throwing away their "banknotes", but categorically refuse to convert them, the holders of these banknotes, into "no one needs dollars" :)

I can recall again the story of 2022 when Russia exchanged dollars for yuan, and then literally 3 months later, lost more than 10 billion dollars on this transaction!
 But got trillions of yuan with which nothing can be done ! :)
Is China really struggling with the dollar ? :)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: STT on June 09, 2023, 10:44:17 PM
Its not new, that idea of cross trade excluding Dollar could be said to go back to the 1980's if you wanted.  The idea back then was silver backing trade in some avoidance of the Dollar losses to inflation at that time, it worked till it didnt and the silver price collapsed.  Before that Charles De Gaulle the general from WW2 and also leader of France till 1959 complained about the Dollar failing and demanded as was his right at that time gold instead so that was only about a decade after the global reserve system had first formed post war.   Its been limping for a while with many objectors especially recently because its decline is accelerating if anything.
   Dollar has the most liquidity, its the most widely accepted for the greatest variety of goods, I will even take some dollars if you want  8).   If Russia has too many Rupees I wonder why they cannot find things to buy in exchange for that money, its a big country but I guess its possible they already have a source for everything India might offer hence the trade exchange is jammed and not liquid.  Also a false exchange rate will create this problem anywhere as markets must be free and able to settle prices for deals as they wish or they are obstructed and society becomes poorer for it.
   To this day France and a couple other countries retain large amounts of gold because Dollar wont last forever.  China is one of them starting this century with no gold its been the biggest buyer and producer for a long time.  However gold is harder to transport and so possibly less liquid then dollar or a number of alternatives in terms of settling trade regularly especially under any imbalance.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: killerfrost on June 10, 2023, 02:42:11 AM
It is a big problem for a country to accumulate currency that it cannot use. That is why countries often accumulate the currencies of other countries with which they have close trade relations to facilitate transactions. Accumulating a country's currency and using it to settle illegal or unreliable transactions is not a good solution
In addition, improper use of fiat currency transactions can put the parties involved in the transaction at risk. The use of legal and reliable fiat currency is very important in international transactions.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Argoo on June 10, 2023, 04:45:59 AM
I believe Dedollarisation is in work, and it is been tested now example is the India-Russia trade agreement to trade in their local currencies. The issue now is that the Dollar monopoly was built over the years and it would take  real work to work out real alternatives, Dollar is causing a lot of havoc to third-world economies all over the world and countries will look for ways to protect themselves, I think America is the only real loser here, if it works, good for them bad for America and if it doesn't work these countries will stick to statoquo
The course for the weakening of the dollar due to de-dollarization will simultaneously mean a course for the strengthening of any other currency of the state. Much is now being written about the BRICS countries and that from a financial point of view, it is created to resist the dollar and therefore they want to introduce their own currency there. And what kind of currency it will be, it is not yet possible to find specific information. It is most likely, and absolutely logical, that this should be a completely new supranational currency. If so, it will be a very interesting global experience. In view of the fact that Russia will continue its economic decline due to the war with Ukraine, the introduction of such a currency will be beneficial to China, especially if they do not exclude military actions against Taiwan and the imposition of sanctions by the United States and Europe, and will also be beneficial to any other potential violators world order, to which the above sanctions can be applied.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Andrija Branislav on June 10, 2023, 04:59:36 AM
It is a big problem for a country to accumulate currency that it cannot use. That is why countries often accumulate the currencies of other countries with which they have close trade relations to facilitate transactions. Accumulating a country's currency and using it to settle illegal or unreliable transactions is not a good solution
In addition, improper use of fiat currency transactions can put the parties involved in the transaction at risk. The use of legal and reliable fiat currency is very important in international transactions.

The conundrum of unusable currency accumulation presents a deep dilemma for countries. The practice of foreign currency accumulation with limited applicability in transactions underscores the need for comprehensive solutions that protect against illegal or unreliable practices.

I think it is now by prioritizing the use of legal and trusted fiat currency in international transactions, for an environment that is conducive to trust, stability, and the facilitation of economic growth to navigate the complexities of de-dollarization with great care, foresight, and committed commitment. steadfast to uphold the integrity and reliability of the financial system in a country.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Latviand on June 10, 2023, 05:11:24 AM
If pays attention to the direction of the de-dollarization concept, it refers to reducing dependence on the US dollar as the dominant currency in international trade and finance. Russia and India have previously expressed interest in increasing trade in their local currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar, but these efforts have faced challenges. One such challenge is the limited acceptance of this currency in international trade and finance. Yes, it's very likely that Dedollarization failed before it even started as you mentioned.
It's not limitied acceptance because these BRICS countries have ironed out all the details for their plans so I do believe that this is not the case of acceptance, I think that it's the case that they're still trading with other countries with dollars and they probably don't have enough dollar for their trades with the other countries. Not to mention, that the hold of dollar in the international market is so strong and deep, they need a lot of countries to completely abandon the dollar for international trade before they can make any difference. Don't get me started with politics too, that's another matter that has a big influence why this dedollarization isn't working as intended.


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Kakmakr on June 10, 2023, 08:11:07 AM
Well, the BRICS countries consist of some of the larger countries in the world.... namely, Russia / India and China.... and once they start pushing their Fiat currencies into other smaller countries, then it will be a step closer to the dedollarisation of the US Dollar.

The US Dollar did not become a global reserve currency over night, it took the US a long time to pimp their currency to weaker economies all over the world. The cracks in the US economy are showing.... and the other countries are seeing that... and they want to be ready when it all goes up into flames. (We know the US use war to hide their flaws or to shift the attention to a reset in the global economy)  ;)


Title: Re: Dedollarisation fails before starting, Russia and India halt rupee trade
Post by: Hispo on June 10, 2023, 10:12:59 AM
I was expecting some problems like these to eventually appear in these kinds of bilateral trade agreements. People underestimate the power and adoption of the dollar and It seemed strange to me the amount of news we saw about that topic.

It is mostly a talking point on the Republican party to blame Biden of the possible lose of power of the USD.

Do not get me wrong, I believe that getting rid of the American Dollar is possible but it is not as nearly as easy as those news made it sound. It is a process which takes tonnes of planning, synchronization and liquidity from both consuming and producing countries, even industrialized countries or the so-called first world.