Bitcoin Forum

I've seen a lot of you looking at Bitcoin charts and trying to predict prices. Do I have to remember certain rules or be really good at technical analysis to make accurate predictions? What tools or methods do you use to predict prices? I have enough time and I'm excited to learn the strategies you suggest so I can understand the market better.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0
I have seen some suggestions under some headings but they are too technical for me,(like this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0) Do you have more beginner level suggestions?

Why not start to learn how to read candlesticks? That should be the first thing you need to learn for technical analysis to predict the next price movement you can check this link below

- https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/a-beginners-guide-to-candlestick-charts

Also, I suggest to join on Binance Academy because they have lots of strategies that you can learn.

Another source is where you can start to learn how to trade is this link below you can almost see all tools there free and paid and they do also have lots of courses that you can read for free.

- https://github.com/SpiralDevelopment/Awesome-Crypto-Trading

Once you learn from that source don't forget to test the skills and strategies on the trading simulator(listed from that source for free)

You don't have to remember that but evaluate, those indicators only contribute a few percent of accuracy, nor will they guarantee you trading success. So there is no method that we can suggest to you, using the same method does not always give the same outcome for every trader.

You have to combine several trading guides besides mastering some technical analysis, it can be like risk management and emotions.

Trading is not predicting price. You can not put your capital into risk with your prediction or predictions from any source.

Very basic
Support and Resistance (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382043.0)
One of the Best Weapons in Trading (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5173189.0)
[LIST] Demo Trading Platforms (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5354815.0). You can learn about trading and test your knowledge with Demo Trading platforms.

Here are my little suggestions i will like to offer you.

1. Don't trade without having the background knowledge of how to start one, let bitcoin be your first digital currency you could start with and try give your time in learning about trading before you start any, trading is as simple as when you understand the way it's een done, this will avoid you from running under loss while trading.

2. Try as much as possible to learn the trading patterns and make sure you have a good time with learning them, also know how to read the weekly candles and study the chart along as well, make sure you don't make use of trading bit because they are not hundred percent effective but you can rely on your chart indicators for that.

Here are additional information you may need to learn about bitcoin trading.

new to trading?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5446799.msg61999785#msg61999785

Lastly try to move your thread to trading discussion board.

Reading might be boring for you if you'll go along with those beginners tips and guides so I suggest you to watch some educational videos on how to start trading. I wouldn't give any channel so it's up to you on what will be results by entering these keywords that you've already mentioned.
But if you're up for reading materials, aside from the ones that were being said. You can see a lot of them made by exchanges just like what's mentioned by bitmax that's being done by binance. Combining all of the resources that you can gather here is likely good enough to start with.

People who believe in Bitcoin price predictions utilize good technical analysis to evaluate the market and anticipate what price Bitcoin will be at some point in the future, but how reliable are they?

All Bitcoin price prediction experts have failed because they did not see the extended bear market coming; most of them have remained mute for the time being, focusing on the market's direction.

I recommend that you invest in Bitcoin for the long run rather than trading with predictions that may fail to meet your expectations.

Get a hamster:
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/25/1040683057/crypto-trading-hamster-goxx-warren-buffet-s-p-500



And how many have you seen actually managing to beat what 100 random guesses in a row might yield?

I would say from the best of my knowledge, no one can give accurate predictions on bitcoin movement as it is highly volatile. Anyone talking about predicting bitcoin to you is misleading you. You can only follow the market trend and trade to collect profit as a smart trader but no having high hopes on some ones predictions.
As a newbie into the system, it is advisable you know candlesticks first as these are the basics in trading. As i can see, there are lots of links already given here for you to learn with which is highly commendable to start with.

You're contradicting yourself here. Candlesticks are basics of trading used to predict the outcome of the market, so saying predicting the market is not possible and still recommending they start with candlesticks is contradictory.

There's no way to reliably predict the price. If there was, there would be millionaires and billionaires who got rich from speculative trading. There are no such people known to the public. Warren Buffet got rich from investing, but his method is based on analyzing businesses and markets. This is not applicable to Bitcoin and crypto. If you tried to do it, you'd reach the same conclusion as Buffet - that crypto is useless. Most of the people who got rich through crypto are just those who held for a long time and enjoyed the recent rides.

TBH, trading needs knowledge and you mentioned the threads you read before contains, difficult terms and you wanted to read beginner-level, but as i said knowledge is the key. I think you want to learn from a series, like, one by one in which crypto terminologies are interconnected and could teach you how to trade in a sequenced way. Well, from this, i think you want a series, and here is one made by Hamza2424 and he is still working on it:

• New to Trading - Tips and Suggestions (V1) Getting Started (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5446799.msg61999785#msg61999785)

He almost wrote 4 to 5 topics on trading so that newbies could understand the most used terminologies easily. And still, if you want to get a general overview of things that could help you to understand which types of things are necessary and which are not. Then you should give a glance at these threads:

• Beginners Should Follow These To Be A Good Price Predictor (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5457780.msg62472354#msg62472354)
• What are the steps in understanding technical analysis? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5456885.0)

--> You need to read the full thread just in case, the OP made some mistake and the correction will be in replies by other members then.

I have always believed that Bitcoin is in a similar structure and cycle since 2009. Each 4 years, it plays exactly similar price action and that's how I was able to decode the big down move in 2022 which was from $40k to $20k. I already made post that my target price will be 200 Weekly Moving Average which was somewhere at $21.5k. And that's what happened, it even went down from there and prices below $20k were just a bonus or you can say a dream for those who wanted to Buy Bitcoin at cheap.

For the beginner level,  you need to learn what is the basis of trading knowledge and what are the terms. You can find it on several YouTube tutorials or websites that provide technical analysis tutorials for beginners. People who are truly skilled in technical analysis do not guarantee that they will be correct in making predictions, there will be some mistakes because the market cannot be predicted 100%. Some speculation and FUD will affect the crypto market so the trend will change easily. Listening to some technical advice will certainly confuse you, but you should try to start with basic knowledge first. it will be important to be your main guideline.

Don't expect to much especially when thinking about accurate prediction since there's no such thing exist. There are just hints provided by technical tools that we can use but it doesn't guarantee anything. Maybe best to learn on your own experience since you can develop a skills just for that. And also avoid reading false claim telling that they can give you 100% sure profit since this is shady statement to take. Try to track back past informations especially the Bull and bearish condition to know more about trading in different situations.

The crypto market is unpredictable honestly, like for a second lets say you take a trade and yeah every thing way going just smooth for example and the next thing BOOM its going againts you, and you will be like WHAT DA F...CK, ??? ??? ??? now thats the MARKET MAKERS doing their shitty deals, so what i will also add here is try not to be in trades when we have VOLATILE NEWS on that day. For you to get this news try using this link HERE: https://forexfactory.com

It's something you don't want to f with man, just accumulate in a bear market and sell in a bull market, if you are into trading find good trading tools that gives you signals when to buy and sell but you will lose a few times but you win more.

Don't rely on predictions, just take advantage of dips in the market price and wait for rebound in price to take profit, the bitter truth is there is no accurate predictors in crypto space.

You can only take advantage of market news, you know, buy the rumor sell the news type of trading, when a bad news is released the market will react to it and dump, if you are good at trading you can make some cool money this way.

To understand the movement of Bitcoin market is not something one can learn in one day and to give reliable prediction is not easy. Everyone gives their speculation and leave then if the market moves to your direction you win and if the market moves to the opposite direction you loss. If there is a specific person who gives the reliable prediction.on Bitcoin, everyone in the forum would have listen to the person and get the accurate movement of Bitcoin and for that traders would have making more gain but the price is unpredictable. Everyone make a guess work. But you can still use news, some expert in the field.

What is certain is that each person's strategy is different, some are advanced and some are not. Those who are good at looking at charts already know where the market will move without depending on negative news and the sentiment that is born towards BTC.

Well, for those who are not yet proficient, I think this is enough to help you in reading the market, but the theory that you have learned and have read is also juxtaposed to make it even more accurate https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt38dd155f8beb7337/bltd60f9b7c5b82b009/6230753f7645a616a04abb33/How-to-Trade-Tweezer-Bottom-and-Top-Candlestick-Patterns-in-the-Crypto-Market_1600x900.jpg If the reading this picture may be reversed if the Tweezer-top arrow means the price will go up and the Tweezer-bottom is marked a decline.

So, that's the basic formula I think, so, you willbe know when you enter and when to leave market, But, these are signs for short-term players. Just my assumptions. but you can see either now or later when you trde. If anyone adds, they are welcome so that those who have recently become better and educated in BTC trading later.

This is just me; I always find it difficult and hard to give myself time to learn and read through charts in order to make some coin price predictions. It always confuses me and drags me down to zero.

But I don't think that's actually the right thing to do. Sometimes one doesn't just need to depend on trading tools that give out free signals on when to buy and when not to buy; learning a few things on how to do it yourself will not be a bad idea, so I wouldn't discourage the OP from learning the basis. It's his choice.

For now, I buy at whatever my mind tells me is the right time to enter the market and hold for a long time until I realize profit; that's when I call it my selling point.

Your question can be funny because this is not a place where you can learn everything you think you want learn. This is not a blog or mini sites where you are going to read about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. What you are going to get here is opinion on how to embark on your journey to know how to make predictions as a trader. The market is very sophisticated and you don't have to be too relax asking for people to help you with what you should read by yourself with bothering anybody. You can make research about what you want to know and that's going to help you.

ok

Perhaps, it was technical so I don't expect that OP will get it just in a few days but expect to learn it for weeks or even months. Besides, learning is not a contest that we need to get into fast and hurry but it should be done properly so it will totally absorb in our mind. And I was thinking that what OP wanted to happen is he would get it too easily. Unfortunately, it was more technical and so it need more time and more research in order to get what he wanted to learn but OP is impatient, not wondering about hearing such complaints.

Reading or studying the past price movements enables you to predict what direction the price will go at certain point. Price also have reactions to certain news or occurrence. Having prior information or prompt information about such occurrence enables to take advantage of the pricing at the time.

I've never known predictions for having ultimate reliability as you speak of...(if that's what your claims are on analysis)...as long as you are not sure, it ain't reliable.
Technical analysis isn't that poky to learn in a twinkle of an eye; there's alot to take into consideration first - the fundamental analysis, sentimental analysis are quite imperative too. When you've gotten proper informations on how to analyze, then you won't be asking questions like this anymore. Another thing you need to remember is - there's nothing like
an "accurate prediction".

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

The mistakes we could make here especially for newbies is when they want to learn as fast as possible. We need to take a deep breath when learning so that we can relax and learn very well not learning in rush. Trading and analysing the market is not something we need to rush and do since the market will always be here for us as long as possible. If we calm down and learn how to predict the market step by step, we are going to become a good market analysis that knows what his doing. So many things to learn so learning does not stop if we want to understand the market.

in predicting the price on the warranty card market, we don't just make guesses, but do an analysis whether it's TA or FA. Indeed, analyzing these two things does not guarantee that our analysis is always correct, but at least this is better than just predicting in general or just guessing.

There are two (2) ways in order to somehow predict the prices with basis: using extrinsic and intrinsic technical analysis on the price of BTC.

For intrinsic analysis, this include all the factors that a certain cryptocurrency may affect its price. This includes the performance of the cryptocurrency over the years when it was created and you may also apply stock technical analysis techniques in order to support your conclusion.

For external analysis, this include all the factors that affect its price that does not include the performance of the crypto. For example, the war between Ukraine and Russia; the prohibition of countries of cryptocurrencies, etc.

At the end of the day, there is no absolute rule when it comes to prediction. These are only tools in order to help you arrive at a decision on which odds are greater than the other and this also does not guarantee that you will profit at the end.

Well I think fir along term holder, there isn't any need to wanting to read and have any serious knowledge about technical analysis since they aren't moved by price movement in a short while, hence your questions should be directed mostly to the trading discussion board as you would likely get more engagements on your thread about this topic.
Remember what everyone does about the price of bitcoin  is simply predictions and what makes people stand out when predicting the price of bitcoin  is their technical knowledge about candle sticks and price volatility and with this adequate knowledge,  one will be having a more preferable price prediction.

Just focus on hodling for now and with time, you can switch.

First of all, learning to analyze the market will increase your chances in predicting the price of Bitcoin. In short, learning Technical and Fundamental Analysis will make your prediction more accurate.

The reality is that, even though you know how to analyze the market using charts, and the news, you can't still predict the price of Bitcoin in the future with 100% accuracy. Sure learning TA will help you by a lot, but that will not make your prediction 100% correct always. As for the rules, there are no rules I guess as long as you know how to read the charts. What tools or methods do they use? In technical analysis, there are so called indicators which can help your prediction more accurate.

Strategies? I guess making it simple is better. I tried trading, but I used only 2-3 indicators to make it simpler. I have a more win rate than the time where I'm using more than 5 indicators. The problem though is that, I still lose money in the end because of my emotions that until now I can't still control :D. Anyway, there's no way for a trader to predict the market with 100% accuracy put that in your mind OP. Learning TA will just make you increase your chances in predicting the market correctly.

Yes, you should understand technical analysis if you have a goal to make a profit on the cryptocurrency market. Lack of knowledge and experience in trading will be identical with a casino. And you need to end up with more profitable trades than unprofitable ones, and not 50/50, as in a casino.

If you want to use some trading strategies like the Kelly Criterion one https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kellycriterion.asp
You need to know how each chart pattern you rely on has been able to predict rightly the trend in the following hours the pattern has occurred if you're a day trader, the following days if you're a swing trader or the following weeks if you are a position one. Unfortunately I've never seen this kind of statistics, so I wonder how rational and reliable is this graphical technical analysis junk science.

And people make predictions based on what they saw the market trend, it is a sort of market observation and is somewhat reliable. But of course, it was not made to become perfect, nobody knows exactly so even how much we spend time analyzing the market movement, if we are just a holder (not a trader) it was not necessary anymore. But still, we need for us to learn about it as this can be used when to sell after accumulations. Indeed it was more technical, so we never expect we can master it right away but our experience would help it.

That's right, and don't be too hasty to enter the market, pay attention to where it's going. what has been said by @tvplus006 that the minimum "You have to understand technical analysis if you have a goal to make a profit in the cryptocurrency market" is real and when seeing many failures that is what happens when we go blank and join in. What the OP must remember and make a strong mindset is that there are always opportunities and the market always provides opportunities for all of us.

Even it is seen and heard, you are seeing something and uses in the indicators or some predictions or analyzes based on which you determine the prices in the market. Now it depends on how you decide your strategy and what strategy you make so that you can better play your key role I n  the market. Now, including me and many others will say that the first thing you need to do is analyze, improve your learning towards cryptos that how they operate, and just like if you want to trade in Bitcoin, you need to understand its fundamentals surely.

There’s no accurate way to predict the price of Bitcoin on every trade since trading is just the result of majority decision of traders whether buying or selling which means it’s only a psychology on what will be the price movement.

But you can always use chart patterns and indicators to guide you on when you will sell or buy based on the price history of each token. Price history will just repeat the cycle in different time frame. This is the reason why using patterns and indicators is very useful for traders because this is somehow act as rule book for every traders that dictates the price.

They say trading is always a broad one, that’s why you need not to focus on technical skills only but learn to maximize trading knowledge and skills that will be very useful when you decide to trade. That way, price predictions will be more likely accurate but never expect that you will never fail in some predictions at some point. However, trading do not just rely on your ability to predict the crypto price well, but also on your right attitude and on how you manage your emotions every time you are trading in the market.