Bitcoin Forum

There's a guy online who says he got some data that goes back to October 2009 and it shows that BTC's best performing month on average is July.  He also looked at the same data but just for the past 5 years and it says that BTC's best performing month is October then followed by July.

He uploaded a couple of bar charts and a line chart showing what he gathered.

https://twitter.com/tedtalksmacro/status/1674654489746329600

Here's BTC's monthly chart.  It's looking good.  Up 11.99% for June.  Basing it on pure optics, it looks like it's going up some more.  And I feel like more people will vote 'yes' in this month's poll.

https://i.postimg.cc/bvrQ6N9G/376-C6-CDD-1180-452-E-B592-52-EB797-E4440.jpg

I voted for Yes.

We have the momentum already, so just need another good news to push the market again. Although SEC says that the application inadequate.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2023/06/30/secs-rejection-of-bitcoin-spot-etfs-is-more-speed-bump-than-stop-sign/?sh=d2eb17737559

And yet the price didn't move a bit, actually it went as high as $31,000 before it goes down on a decline to lows of $30,000 and now trading at the middle, $30,500. So it's just a timing, so maybe if July has another good news to boot then the bullish sentiments might continue, IMHO.

I hesitated, but instead chose "No" to answer your question on the poll.
There are actually a lot of factors I could consider choosing "no", and one of them is the similarity of the pattern between the 2020 halving period and the 2024 halving period. If the pattern true, then I think we will go lower this July. Things may change and we get different realities, but I've just ignored a lot of worries about that. Keep hold on, that is my current plan until at least 18 months after the 2024 halving.

Going back to July, I think we're going to be in the $28k - $34k area. $28k is the support I am considering, but if bitcoin can break the $32k resistance then I hope $35k won't be difficult.

I voted for sideways. I think we’re going to see a month of accumulation before making the next move upward. When we do make the move upward though I am expecting a jump to nearly $40K in a very short time period. I just don’t think it’ll happen so soon, but it is still the beginning of the month so maybe it happens near the end…

I voted for sideways.
I don't know how to read charts, but judging by the recent happenings and the halving being around the corner, there is a higher chance of us seeing another breakthrough to at least $35k in the coming days of July, but not this early.
 
There is also another higher possibility of us seeing a price correction down to $28k if there is no positive news, which could possibly help push the price forward a little bit because for the past few days the price has been regulating between $30,000 and $30,600, so any small negative news could either drag it down to below $30k or above $31k when the reverse is the case.

For now, bitcoin price is difficult to guess where it is moving to, either bull or bear is what I can not guess now. The market has been resisting to go below $30000 and the market seem bullish as of now and we do not know what would happen. I think the bulls are still buying and this may increase the price further, but also the market can be deceiving at times, this makes me not to know what would happen. But if bitcoin increase above $32000, likely we are going to $35000. If Bitcoin does not pass $30000 to $31000, it is possible that the price may fall back below $30000 again. But as of now, I can see the bulls at work. I will choose sideways though.

Bitcoin's price exceeded $30,000 a week ago, but it experienced a minor decline since then while still maintaining a trading value above that threshold. Presently, the crypto market displays a slight bearish sentiment with no notable news impacting it. Nonetheless, the long-term sentiment remains optimistic, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially surpass $35,000 by the end of this year.

I guess sideways, it's hard to know whether we can continue the momentum or not but it seems that there's still doubt. If the cause of the pump was because of BlackRock filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF then I think it should have to be the same news that will drive market to a new heights. In the short term or for July I think we really got to be sideways.

I was into that market view. This 3rd quarter was probably have the chance to see the price of Bitcoin will move and getting a distance from the $30k barrier. I have the insights that we will reach $35k this month but still with some corrections moving it up and down. And that person can be right in his assumptions, rise is probably what we are going to experience this month. However, this will also change depending on how the community responds and manage their emotions upon reading the FUDs.

I cast my vote, but let's face it, my vote is just as good as anyone else's. It is all just wild speculation. It could swing up, it could swing down, or it could go sideways. The only thing it won't do is take a backward leap. So, whatever we are in for this July, I have a feeling it is gonna be one-of-a-kind, like nothing we have seen before. Brace yourself for the unexpected!

Yes - I voted for it because I tend to believe that there will be a hike in July.
At least I'd expect a good bounce above $35k - but sideways are also very likely. Not sure about a correction deeper than $29k - if so, I hope it's just a panic correction and price will be back above $30k.

Before breaking $37k - we should expect $32k to be broken. Currently $32k is unbroken resistance despite having been tested several times during June.

it may not be 37k but the likelihood of getting 35k is high. if we reach the 31k mark, it can easily go up. but we need rock solid positive news to break such level. in case a negative one comes up, it may go down a lil bit.
but as of now, people are being optimistic as it has been months waiting to reach this level again.

A lot can happen in July, therefore it's difficult for us to predict if the price of bitcoin will rise above $37,000 as predicted or fall below the current price of $30k+. 

We shouldn't have assumed that the price of bitcoin would surge this month without first considering what kind of positive or bad news would be reported that would cause the price to soar or decline.

Whether Bitcoin's price will increase from $30k to $37k or decline below the stated amount by the end of July. Even yet, the only price I can see for July being is below $35k.

I wouldn’t follow up too much on this. I remember prior to 2018, November was bitcoins strongest month. So then when November 2018 came around, people assumed it would rally in that month since it did nothing for most of the year. And what happened instead? Basically complete opposite.

Hence you can’t really use this as an indicator. I think it’s just completely random at this point. Only bearish months I can tell fundamentally are in March-April of the prior year was bullish due to tax selling. But that happens maybe once every 2-3 years.

Let's see together what will happen in July which is said to be the best performing month for Bitcoin price.
Not accepting a spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC could be a challenge in terms of price action, but I feel that July will be a shining month for Bitcoin prices as the past month's price history is still very much to be hoped for.
The price of support is $30,000 and for me a good support even though later it can miss predictions.

I am quite optimistic and confident that bitcoin will continue to rise in the coming days despite the SEC rejection of an ETFs, but predicting bitcoin to rise to $37k this month is too high for me. I predict bitcoin can break through $31k and possibly hit $33k before correcting. But my mid-term prediction for the end of the year, I still think bitcoin will have a strong correction below $20k, although many will oppose my idea. Because people don't want bitcoin to fall, but I'd rather bitcoin continue to fall than rise this year.

We almost crossed half of the year. So yes this is the time when usually Bitcoins climbs up in price. The chart mentioned in the OP is absolutely correct. Bitcoins have always shown positive attitude after touching the month of July. June was pretty decent for the coin. I mean at first the price fell down to 25k usd, and again quickly recovered to 31k usd. I am expecting Bitcoins to atleast cross 40k usb by the end of July. Let’s hope for the best and keep accumulating the coins.

That means there must be a boosting price and bullish sentiment on Bitcoin if not it is very difficult to achieve by Bitcoin this month, at least in the middle of the month must touch the price level of Bitcoin up to $ 35k, then the opportunity to reach $ 40k is more likely to be achieved on end of month.

If seen from the Bitcoin chart shows a positive direction which means the bull is more potential in this display, but for some reason I am a little hesitant to predict that Bitcoin in July because I measure with economic stability and there are still many issues that have not been completed on Alt and exchange, but I hope it's just my mind. I chose "Yes" hoping for better Bitcoin.

I voted for Yup, not because I have a bull-bias, but because it's hard to debate against the data presented in the Twitter link posted by OP.

Plus Bitcoin has already gone through its most difficult challenges of the current bear cycle and it has come out of it completely unharmed, AGAIN. It's probably time for more "UP", no? 8)

The price chart already shows us pattern of Bitcoin movement. It need something that double down or double top to make a strong move on a certain direction. The current price pattern don't have that pattern to create a strong run upside so I think the price will slowly correct on the following months until the previous cycle bottom was reached and then this time will be a very strong bull run that can break the previous ATH.

I'm more on sideways or slow correction as a preparation for the mega bullrun next year due to halving.

TBH, I voted for Yes on this one, but I have doubts that it will happen.

I mean the reason why Bitcoin is above $30,000 right now is the filing of Blackrock of a Bitcoin ETF. Now the SEC is on the verge of denying it for some reasons. I saw it online that they might deny it like other Bitcoin ETF's in the past. On the other hand, if this ETF will get accepted, $37,000 is very low price I guess because we might see Bitcoin's price go to as high as $40,000 this year. That's more than half of it's previous ATH of ~$70,000.

Well, it's good to see Bitcoin going up last month. Now the question is will it sustain this month, or we might see dramas in the internet that might've cause it's price to plummet again. I don't know because I'm not updated with this one, but the Binance-SEC drama has ended already? I asked it because that might affect the price of Bitcoin either positive or negative. Well, OP said that the month of July has been the 2nd best performing month in the last 5 years, and it has been the best performing since 2009, so there's a high chance that we might see Bitcoin's price go up just because of it's price history, but of course we might see it go below as well.

It's always hard to find the right answer, you know that. Apart from that, I think it is still difficult to avoid trader panic because of some drama that is widespread on the internet and usually prices can fluctuate quickly to break support. Currently $29k is support which has held fairly well through June, but we have yet to get bitcoin to break through the $32k resistance which has still failed on several attempts.

The drama isn't over yet, but something else has changed the outlook of traders and investors so that the price could break $31k in June. There has been a lot of money flowing into the market and that has made the price move up, but I believe the price will probably correct in July to test new support.

Vote - yes

I saw that at the end of last month, the support was quite strong and it looks like for resistance to the next maybe it will be reached soon after Bitcoin tries to stay at the price of $30K and that is strong support this is just as a prediction maybe it's just the data on Twitter this in July will still be in the high of over $30K.

Maybe in the future, there will be some other sentiments, but I think the price will still hold, even if the price drops below it means the support is no longer strong.

In fact, the bitcoin price hasn't touched $32k yet - so that's a resistance level to consider. The harder it is for the price to break through that level - then perhaps a correction will follow. I can't remember exactly how many times bitcoin has tried to break the $32k resistance in the last month - but all failed as the June high was $31,430.

It may be true that - we include a consolidation moment for bitcoin after the bull run since mid-June. Even if there is a correction - then that is normal, so prepare yourself for all the risks. Oh wait - if you want to be a long-term holder, then of course you shouldn't be affected by anything.

The chart is not showing the months and it is only showing the years, so that became a problem to understand the chart because I am not good in chart analysis. But even at that I will still vote for September and October because last year, the indication of rising up started from the month of September and October, and it was on that level until in the new year of 2023 and the price goes up from January.
But this year might be different, because in the month not June, the price was not too bad and the early part of July is also good so let see how it will go in this month of July.

Personally, I'm inclined to think that we are in for a sideways movement in the 26,000-33,000 range. Analyzing past years, you can notice that usually the end of July comes out strong, and the beginning of July - there is always a swing. You shouldn't expect a continuous flight up or down. Things will be relatively calm - and there will be swings at the Fed meeting, as always.

Similar to my vote last month, my vote this month is again yes the pump will continue hehehe. It might also be good to mention the rumor in this thread that our uncle Gary is resigning from the SEC. The source of this information is an anonymous official in the SEC, according to sauces.

Gensler is presently the enemy boss of the cryptospace. If this enemy leaves, I am quite certain the happy CZ will consider it a victory and pump bitcoin to $40k.

https://i.ibb.co/s9pJ182/EAEC808-D-7-D5-D-4858-B7-CA-6-D55-D96-CA16-C.jpg

$37,000 is very possible this month, but I am still expecting to revisit the $25,000 level first before that number.
That's why I'm very paying close to the move of Bitcoin right now because that $37,000 is very easy once we reach $35,000. I agree with the momentum we have now but I am still expecting some price correction.

Mmmmm...  Not really that hard to vote and just tell everybody what you think if you're just having fun with it.  We're not trying to get the right answer here.  It's more like how you guys feel the market will be by the end of July.  It's the sentiment that matters.

But judging from how you feel, I think you're leaning towards sideways.  Which is fine really. 

Anyway...  Seems like there's lots more voting for yes this month.  ;)  Good luck to your trades.

I'm bullish for this month after last month closed back above the 20 Month MA for the first time since March 2022, but not sure about reaching $37K that quickly given the current pace of the rally so far this year. I think there may be more consolidation ahead in the coming months between $30K and around $40K as bearish longer-term moving averages flatten out that are still declining, and cross-over bullish again.

The question is really whether there will still be sellers around $30K and $40K who are getting out of losing positions or break even from the past 1-2 years, which has been the trend for the past year and looks set to continue further. I'm not convinced there will be that much profit taking around these levels from buyers between $20K and $30K, as to me this looks like clear long-term accumulation volume.

For reference sake the average price from the past 2 years is around $32.7K and while it's beginning to flatten out, it still has further to decline based on the current prices. Above this level is where some investors may reduce some risk for those who feel over-exposed. Although this wasn't the case in 2019, it does so far after 6 months look like 2023 is a much more conservative recovery at least so far.

The general trend is bullish, but I doubt that we will reach 37K$ this month, we may see 35K$ at the latest during this month.

I voted for the sideways movement because the market situation in general fluctuates strongly between negative and positive, so I expect that we will see a sideways movement that may be prolonged until the price can cross this point.

But in general, I am optimistic about the bullish trend coming strongly, not necessarily during this month, but during the coming months until the end of the year.

It's always possible to take them out to recover their losses - but if they have any reasonable logic then they should be able to hold onto assets longer until they get a return. Even if they do sell - I don't think the market will have much of an impact, that's a possibility.

If it were me - obviously I don't intend to sell and profit at those levels. Prices will be higher - but we're just more patient waiting while accumulating.

From the poll I voted for sideways, from what I saw there is less buying pressure for few weeks now which has made it maintained same position for about 1 week now, but lets still watch it closely as I have this strong feeling that we are just heading to the day 4 of July. There may be a possibility of bitcoin price to position itself at $35k within or before the month of July runs out so we are hopeful and being Optimistic about the month of July to bring positive trend to entire cryptocurrency market.

Nobody can predict exactly the movement of bitcoin in it market, what I know that is hoping in bitcoin is that the price always go up when the demands is higher than the demand and its very obvious that the price of bitcoin can accelerate which I know quite well that bitcoin is one of the things Nobody can predict accurately of its acceleration in price,  this July we might notice different increase in bitcoin due the month demands of bitcoin

Well, according to what I read an statistic based article on cointelegraph, Bitcoin has never lost more than 10% in July, so that basically is a positive sign for the month, but if we see the market at the moment, Bitcoin's price has been stable between $30k and $31k for more than a week already, spectators are confused as to where it will be headed next because it is neither showing positive nor negative movement, investors are all waiting for it to make a move but it's too stable.

If July is considered to be the month that is usually positive for Bitcoin or the cryptocurrency market in general, it should start going up soon, but the month has already started and we still don't see any movement at all, maybe we should wait and see what happens after the first week of the month.

It seems that Bitcoin will gain further in the month of July, and the majority of the sentiments are positive. However, reaching 37K is far-fetched. I think the price might touch 35k this month and then experience a slight correction before gaining momentum again.

Reaching 37k is asking too much from the month of July. It might happen in the next 90 days if more positive news come out. One thing I am certain that the price of Bitcoin would continue to hover around the 30k price point. It will not go below this price point it as it was in the month of June. Most probably by next month we might see the price breaching the 31k barrier. 

As much as we all want this to happen, but I guess this rumor has just been dismissed?
I just read this article earlier https://www.bsc.news/post/sec-dismisses-rumors-of-chairman-gary-genslers-resignation#:~:text=In%20a%20swift%20response%20to,Eleanor%20Terrett%20on%20July%203. (https://www.bsc.news/post/sec-dismisses-rumors-of-chairman-gary-genslers-resignation#:~:text=In%20a%20swift%20response%20to,Eleanor%20Terrett%20on%20July%203.) since we all really want him to step down asap. There were even rumors that the next chief who's supposed to be replacing him is a total opposite.
Though, I think Gensler's response per the article doesn't solidify anything regarding the rumor IMO, there are still a possibility for that to happen since the rumor was brought to the public, there must be a little truth behind it LOLOL!

The closing of June didn't show flag that price can go down that much so that momentum could be sustained for this month. If there are no negative news this month then it can ride the hype of sitting at the edge of $30k to gain more space in. At the moment, $31k seem strong it might keep moving slowly for the time.

If Gary actually does end up quitting then we are going to have a huge pump in bitcoin without a doubt, it is not going to be even remotely close to what it is and we are going to see something that will change a ton. I know that people are not super excited about the situation and all, but that doesn't mean that we are going to be happy about it neither, we could just end up with a loss on a ton of people who sold and got out.

We do not know if he will though, maybe he will and maybe he won't so it is not a sure thing. If not, then we are going to have a decent month, not a huge high, not a huge low, it is going to be about where it is, maybe just a little high or low but that's about it. I really expect him to quit, that would be lovely.

So far bitcoin is at a very important resistance point around 31K. Today we can clearly see the battle between the bulls and the bears. I hope that this resistance will be broken in July. If that happens, I expect bitcoin at 35-37K. I think this scenario is possible this month.

The resistance bitcoin needs to break in July is $32,500 as the main resistance on the traditional pivot indicator for daily TF. $32,500 is still tough considering there have been several selling attempts to fight higher prices. Maybe not against the trend, but maybe because some of the longtime investors are starting to get out after recovering their losses since the bearish run.

I'm not sure if the main resistance will be broken soon or if the price will actually drop to the second, third or fourth support level again. But I believe July won't be too bad to expect the $32,500 resistance to be hit.

It is impossible to accurately forecast the price of Bitcoin using charts data alone. There was some well-known bitcoiners who were preaching the stock-to-flow gospel and were so confident that Bitcoin would go up hundreds of thousands of dollars only to end up looking foolish when the market crashed. People can look at charts and see what they want to see but any random person would be just as likely to predict the future price as long as they have a decent understanding of Bitcoin.

My sentiment is that the price will remain sideways. Bitcoin has already gone up a lot this year so it would take some really massive news event to continue pushing it's momentum much higher.

I was hesitating between sideways and price increase, voting in the end for the "Yup" which I understand to be the most likely. Although in a month and due to the volatility of Bitcoin anything can happen, I think the worst of the bear market is over and in recent months, albeit with some ups and downs, the price has been rising. With less than a year to go before the halving, I think the normal scenario will be a slight rise. Without having seen the exact figure of $37K I was thinking of a slight rise in the range between almost $31K, where we are, and $40K. So the $37K is within what I expected.

Everyone sees the charts with their own point of view. It seems to me that the main thing now is to consolidate above 31k. Bitcoin has been trying to do that for a few days now, but the bears are stronger so far. I see a scenario that if 31k is broken, further momentum will follow.

Support is now $30k, so $31k might be resistance or it will be the price that we are going to consolidate for this month.

So we will see if we can get over the $31k, but as far as how I observed the market price, it seems to be that it will take at least 3-4 attempts before we can finally break it and then we will go on another run.

Maybe next is $33k-$35k for us this month.

After around three attempts of breaking out of 31k, each ended up being a fake out.  :(  This isn't a good sign imho as it looks like momentum is slowing down.  And if we lose 30k, a round number which means it's somewhat a psychological support, it's possible BTC drops back to around 28k - 28.5k range and who knows how long it stays in there.  

And what would suck is if 30k becomes the new resistance...  Again, a round number.  :/  There's something about them that affects people psychologically.

While you and I are discussing support and resistance, bitcoin is approaching 30k again.  :D Although the weekly chart still looks good, it is still in danger of falling below 30k again. I hope that will not happen, because right now altcoins interest me more than bitcoin, but if bitcoin falls, then altcoins will be in trouble again.

Who knows, maybe the 4th one will be for real? As far as I can remember, the last time we broke $30k, it also took us like more than around three attempts, so it's just the pattern again.

Prices at $30k is holding though, not a decline to $28k-$29k, so I guess it might be another sideways pattern again?

I initially thought that we could run out to $35k this month, but we are someone stuck for now even if the refiling of Blackrock was the reason for a very brief $31k adjustment.

Yes, I also don't believe in what the chart shows us, but many people are relying on it too much and think that everything will work out as the chart shows us. Bitcoin prediction is not possible, and instead, we should always be prepared for both scenarios, which is better than just focusing on technical analysis and trusting it completely.

Prediction for July, I expect bitcoin to hit $33k before we plummet towards the end of the year. I still believe bitcoin will be back to $25k this year before the block reward halving happens.

Bitcoin will not dump to under $30k.

Also, what was Samsung Mao implying by saying this?


Gm, you’re not ready for what’s to come. #Bitcoin

Source https://twitter.com/excellion/status/1676644542391648256


Blackrock might be very near on getting an SEC approval for their spot ETF. There are people I argue with in the forum who say that there is no difference between the approval of a futures ETF and a spot ETF. To this a shake my head and ask how does the futures market track the price of bitcoin futures contracts?

If Blackrock gets a spot ETF approval we will witness billion dollar twaps very much similar to CZ's $1 billion twap that caused the pump of March 12.



In an interview on FOX Business, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink calls crypto “digital gold,” and labels Bitcoin (BTC) a digital asset.

“I do believe that the role of crypto is digitalizing gold in many ways,” he says. “Instead of investing in gold as a hedge against inflation (and) a hedge against the onerous problems of any one country, or the devaluation of your currency of whatever country you’re in, Bitcoin is an international asset.”

In saying that BTC is an international asset, BlackRock CEO Fink explains that it can be used as an alternative asset to gold.

Source https://watcher.guru/news/blackrock-ceo-crypto-is-digital-gold-btc-an-international-asset

I voted for yes, because there are some signs that occurred early this month of July that made me to believe that the price will hit higher for investors to experience $40,000 before the end of this month. Over three days now, the price is still remain $30,000 show that what happened last season will not happen in this season and many investors are very ready to achieve passive income when the price increase higher in the market. I don't think, investors will experience low price before the end of this year 2023 because Bitcoin team are seriously working to allow their investors to breath well in this season by experiencing steady pumping through out this year so that they will have more opportunity to invest well again when the price decrease down next year.

I am also optimistic for the medium-term outlook for the bitcoin price by setting a target of $40,000. But I can't say that July or the end of July will hit that price, because the next bitcoin price target might be $32,000 to $34,000.
and I believe when the bitcoin price reaches that price there will definitely be a sell-off and cause the bitcoin price to drop back down, maybe below $30,000 which will cause another healthy correction that isn't too significant.
and that's all I think what's going on is that the increase in the price of bitcoin will surely come back down even though not much but it will still happen in the next few months, and implementing the DCA strategy is perfect for now.

I am not as optimistic about the medium term as you, but speaking of July, I agree with you that bitcoin will probably hit $32k or $33k, and there will be a correction after that. But it will be a strong dumping that can bring bitcoin down to $20k, it won't happen quickly, it will probably last for months until the end of the year.

Of course, this is my prediction and I'd rather that happen than bitcoin will continue to rally towards $40k. I still DCA monthly, so the bitcoin drop will make me feel better.

Just got online and the first thing I checked was BTC's price...  And wow...  I mean who the fk dumped the corn big time and just as when everything started to look good.

I mean wtf.  It doesn't make any sense.  :/  Wouldn't it be a lot better if the guy who dumped just followed the trend and bought going up than going against the flow?  Where does he expect BTC to go?  Back to 25k support..?  Meh.

Anyway, stay safe out there guys.

For it depends on the news, today Bitcoin ETF is on the way and Blackrock the biggest investment company wants to make one of Bitcoin ETF and needs approval from the SEC.

Binance and Coinbase also sued by the SEC if binance win and the sec approve the ETF it would be huge sentiment for the Bitcoin and maybe it touch 35-37K level at the end of the month

And if I'm not mistaken, it went below for a brief moment? But then again, it rises above $30k and I think we are all good.

Perhaps the Bitcoin ETF spot application hype has somewhat simmered already, as we have thought that it will make the price go above $31k and maintain it's range but it wasn't. Nevertheless, as you have said, everyone is hoping that the $30k will hold for at least this month of July. We don't like to see the price going below it as we might be in trouble again and going back to trading sideways.

Yup I guess the reason why BTC hasn't dropped below 30k yet is due to everybody banking on the idea that the ETF could get the go ahead.  But if that's all it's banking on then could we say that the current uptrend is weak?  It's like it's hanging by a thin thread here.  It has to move up and above 31k - 32k and retest that level as support so we could get a little breather.

The longer it stays where it's at, it feels like some huge whale could spook himself into dumping causing the whole market to panic.  Lolol.

It could also just be old resistance turning into new support. This is the previous level that price struggled to maintain back in April and after reaching it again last month it seems like at least an attempt to turn it into support this time. So while the ETF speculation may have helped price reach $30K levels again, maintaining this level could simply be part of usual price action of testing old resistance as new support.


I wouldn't say the current uptrend is strong, but I wouldn't call it weak either, but rather neutral in the immediate term. Price has been sideways for two weeks now, at a resistance level and at the top of the current trend, so I think it's difficult to say that trend is weak, even if weakening, or weaker than it was last month for example. I agree it does appear to be hanging on by a thread around $30K right now, but overall, it's up to the bears to prove they can move prices below $30K, rather than for the bulls to prove that price can move above $32K, as currently the path of least resistance remains to the upside based on trend/volume.


Overall I think the longer price trades sideways between $30K and $32K then the more it favours the bulls, as it allows bullish trending moving averages to catch up to the price. Price remains a way away from the 50 & 200 Day MAs that are around $28K and $25K respectively with longer-term moving averages on Weekly/Monthly yet to be fully bullish or crossed bullish. So time favours the bulls right now.

Chose a sideways move for July.
July will be a potential month for the next Bitcoin price movement.

The charts of the last three months counting from April, May and June lead me to believe that Bitcoin in July is headed sideways.
April Bitcoin price chart is slightly higher than May and June is higher than May and almost in balance with April's chart.
If July's chart moves sideways, then August could be an upbeat month to see $40K price.

Hey guys, just dropping by to say that there's a BTC price prediction contest going on by Sinbad.  I encourage everybody to take a crack at it and try to win some free money.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5458769.0

And thanks for the input dragonvslinux.  I really appreciate it.  I don't think there are a lot of guys here at BCT who has a lot of knowledge in TA and trading like you do.

I'd expect a pump despite the possibility that there is some price downfall because I believe that there is more on the rise than seeing it dropping.
And looking at the current situation, it was not far to reach $37k, might will not really be this price but that can be possibly close to it. Because as we have noticed in the previous years, we can see an uptrend in the 3rd quarter and that is what I expect this time as well.

Perhaps, there is no wrong opinion here but I was hoping that we go more on the rise rather than seeing it dumping.

By the looks of it this week has been a very slow one and we are not seeing anything big at the moment. I feel like the best thing about the current situation is that we are going to increase out of nowhere when nobody expects it. This is why I believe that the best thing to do would be waiting. If you are impatient and sell because you did not see it go up, then you are going to be upset about it.

I hope that the best thing to do in the crypto space at this moment would be just finding a way to make as much profit as you possibly could. Of course this isn't really a small matter, and that means we are going to end up with a terrible ending, but that doesn't mean that we should be not so  careful about it, we can always be very happy about it as well.

^  Tell me about it...  It's getting a bit frustrating as it goes up to 31k then some guy starts selling it down, prolly even shorting it.  I think there's somebody out there protecting their hefty short positions cos why not just cover the short and shift going long?  :/

The best thing that's gonna happen is for it to shoot up and liquidate all those shorts along the way and force them to cover.  We have seen it before.  ;)

But we'll see...  It's been almost 20 days in this range.  Something has to give.

https://i.postimg.cc/xdqDn6Ym/0-E95-E8-A0-A56-C-4513-B0-B2-8-B1-ADDC10532.jpg

There is always one guy who has some data saying month X is the best or worst performing month for bitcoin :D
The reality however is that months don't affect the market, the participants do. This is why we are still in sideways market and will continue to remain in this "limbo" for some more time which is what I voted for too.

There's every possibility for bitcoin to reach $37,000 and beyond this month of July since it has been rotating round about the $30,000 more or below, the resistance to surge may be broken and we could arrived at something new again before the end of the month since we are yet to get to the halve of the month and if we also have the consideration of this month being the beginning of the second half of the year, we are also going closer to halving while months of the year does not determined what we should expect, the weekly candles may be of a direction in this the more.

It will first manipulate going lower then aggressively trades higher. With an impulsive move taking both sides of the range then rallying towards the higher time frame objective which is at the moment going higher. That's how the consolidation market is being traded. Something has to give. Or you should say, someone's stop loss must be taken.

Is the US department of justice selling bitcoins under their custody again similar to what they have done on March? According to this article those bitcoins are moving. Also, bitcoin has made 6 pumps to $31k, however, there was a big dump after all 6 of those pumps.

In any case, the voters of sideways might be proven correct if the big seller continues to dump on our faces hehehe.



Crypto wallets belonging to the Department of Justice on Wednesday moved $300 million in BTC to new addresses in two transactions.

The feds hold Bitcoin that's been seized from criminals and sometimes move it around. In the past, they've done so because they intend to sell it—but not always.

The feds have since been selling the crypto bit by bit; in March, they sold $215 million-worth of the "digital gold." At the time, they said they plan to dump another $1.1 billion.

Source https://decrypt.co/148285/us-moves-300m-worth-of-silk-road-bitcoin

The thing is, it isn't like he pulled July from his ass.  The guy used real data from the years since BTC started being bought and sold in an actual market.  So we can't just laugh and say he's being 'that guy'.  :/  I mean if the data says July had a higher than average chance of being a good month for BTC in the past then it could also mean July this year could also have a higher than average chance of being a good month.

Anyway, last call for the first part of Bitcasino's prediction contest for the guys who missed it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5459313.0

Short-term speculators probably don't want to be buying at the top of the trend, especially after we've already seen a few fake-outs to the upside. Better risk reward to be buying the upwards sloping support within this channel. Probably right though that shorts are covering their positions or getting liquidiated above yearly highs, yesterday alone there was $50m short liquidations for example.


I still think quite likely. The current consolidation is reminding me of April 2019 around $5K that also had an upwards trending bull flag type structure before breaking to the upside, even with bearish divergence. Or otherwise the inverse of May last year when price was previously around $30K to $32K and consolidated for almost exactly a month before breaking to the downside.


Give it up to another 10 days imo. Usually after 3 weeks of consolidation in a tight range there is another weeks worth prior to a break-out  ;)

Went for sideways as Bitcoin has no intention to go over 35k this summer not only for Jule but also has no intention to be under 27k so we assume BTC price will swing between these 2 range prices. Also , I still have my prediction with Bitcoin going under 30k at least once during this summer and we are not far as the resistance for 30k is not so impressive like it used to be 1 month ago.

Not overly concerned about not getting a break out as of yet tbh.  I'm more concerned about how long would the liquidiy last in support.  As we all already know, it won't last forever and it's gonna get sold down on over and over.  Hopefully sellers run out of sht soon before it happens.

Buy orders could dry up in the range around the red bar.

https://i.postimg.cc/wvLq1Pbg/96-ABAC88-4-BAD-4406-9916-094-CAFF707-BC.jpg

Looks like BTC is getting ready to puke guys.  :/  If it doesn't bounce from the red box, dunno...  Maybe it needs to puke again to get a bounce like it did when it dropped to 25k a month ago.  And the whales who were defending 30k looks tapped out.  A little more nudges down and we go lower to the next support down to 28k - 28.5k.

Stay safe out there.

Anyway locked the poll.  And here's the 4 hour chart with the red box.  It don't look too good.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjX3025X/1-A249-BA9-166-F-4-AF3-8-EF8-3-D28-F6-B2-FACF.jpg

^^, But we still have a week to go and who knows, maybe the sentiments might change for the better.

However, best case scenario for us is that the price will remain as it, I mean we might see a sideways pattern here that we are used to in the last couple of months until the break out because of the news about Bitcoin ETF.

So just remain calm, we are almost at the end of the month and it's good if we are still above $30k.

^  Sentiment will change for the obvious of course.  That's why I lock the poll before the month ends because it would be missing the point if it stays open til the last day.  Results would be skewed towards what the price is at the end of the month.

What these polls are supposed to do is find out what their sentiment is near the start of the month based on what happend to the months prior.  And looking at the price now, it seems like the voters' sentiments are on track with the market.  That's good!  :)

Edit:  Some guy sold down.  Not good.  =/

Hey guys, last call to make your predictions in Bitcasino's BTC July predictor.

Bitcoin Predictor July
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5459313.0

You never know, it could be your lucky day.  ;)

And...  sigh...  Just as I feared, BTC puked.  All those buy orders gone as support broke down.  And anybody left holding are trapped unless there's a bounce.  If not then they prolly sell and let it puke down more.  Next support is prolly around 28k - 28.5k.

Stay safe out there.

https://i.postimg.cc/DZYJZDrR/A2558488-BCD4-427-F-A4-F4-B18-E80-CA1561.jpg

It looks like there is a bull flag pattern that was formed when seen from the 4-hour time frame chart when the BTC price touched $29K and this is a bullish sign showing great enthusiasm from new crypto investors and traders. I think tomorrow it will also go up, if I pay attention the market is usually like that the last few months. If it goes up, like you said I think it's very good. Yes. moved towards and quickly recovered towards the $37,000-$38,000 level.

It will also be good if bitcoin stays between $29,000 and $30,000 or below till the end of the month(a few days remaining). There isn't much to anticipate right now because most investors wouldn't want to sell at around $29k but rather accumulate more bitcoin

Since July monthly speculation didn't do as well as it usually does on average, we will continue to have a favorable outlook for the remaining months until bitcoin reaches the $35k and above price as anticipated for her at the end of the year.