Bitcoin Forum

Many expectations of bitcoin this year failed, but I notice that bitcoin always breakout into a new price after interval of five years, the last massive explosion of price was between 2017-2018 and since then, bitcoin has not record major price increase. Now if you calculate from 2018 to 2023 that's about 5 years though because of policy of economic inflation and influence the price has not gain its actual strength to break resistance limits and if the remaining quarter of the year fails even more, then we should expect 2024 to 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 fire. We should start to make plans for 2024 more buys more gains.

You are analysing wrongly. Check 2020 and 2021 and see what bitcoin price were. Bitcoin hit all-time-high in 2021. So how come your statement that 2017/2018 was bull year for bitcoin is correct?

2018 was a bear market for bitcoin, just like 2022.

But many people are expecting 2034/2025 to be great and expecting all-time-high because of bitcoin halving. Psychologically, people think bitcoin price will increase after halving.

What are you talking about?

No the interval isn't five years. The market cycle is four years, and followings the halving cycle. Last big market cycle bull run was not 2017, it was 2021. Next one will be 2024/25.

And no, this doesn't determine Bitcoin's fate. Bitcoin is continuing to grow like it always does, and go through its 4 year market cycles like it always does. Nobody is wondering or worried about Bitcoin's fate.

I doubt that, except maybe People that have set too high expectations. Because if we look at the price of bitcoin late last year which was around $16k, then with the current price around $30k now rising to around 2x the price, we could say the year has been quite good because the year before the bitcoin halving is always faced with dumps



I doubt this analysis because bitcoin has actually raised from march 2020 at price of approximately $4k to close to 69k the following year which is quite a pump. I would say the kind of high price pump you are talking of actually happens due to halving every four years and not five years and this time it is expected to happen in 2025 since the halving is next year

It gets really tiring and exhausting reading all these one man self analysis about btc, everyone thinks they can predict and tell what btc price will be next.
It seems the @op was off-the-grid in 2021/22 not to recognise such significant price movement. Yeah 2024 will determine btc fate as to whether it will be permanently buried or not. Thanks for the heads up.  :D

I honestly have no idea how the op managed to miss the 2021 bull market, but the funny thing is that I did my own calculations based on the last few bull markets and I also settled on sometime in 2024 for the bull market. Of course, there isn't nearly enough Bitcoin history for it to count more than anecdotal evidence, but it makes sense to me that 2023 will still be in the red, but at least at some point in 2024 we'll see strong signs of recovery.
2024 will be there pretty soon, so I guess we'll see. But also, I don't think it will determine Bitcoin's fate. After another bull market, we can easily see another bear market, Bitcoin losing up to 75% of its value and all that.

Here’s how I see the halving-price correlation:
- 2012 halving 2013 ATH
- 2016 halving 2017 ATH
- 2020 halving 2021 ATH
- 2024 halving … you get it :D

Thread title decides Bitcoin fate? What do you mean by this? Ignore it.

You didn't see the data in 2021 where the bitcoin price reached ATH $68K, so I think it's too far to compare with the events in 20217/18 it has gone through two cycles with the halving now.

It has been widely predicted that after the halving bitcoin will experience a fairly high increase, we will not be curious about that because we are only optimistic that bitcoin can surpass the previous ATH price and return to its highest price again.

Wrong analysis, you are a newbie for sure and that's why you need to learn before trying to teach on this forum, if you are not certain of something, it's better you ask instead of forming something you don't know much about.

You said that many expectations for Bitcoin have failed but honestly, none have failed so far, it's all the beginning of a bear market in 2022, if anyone is expecting anything from Bitcoin right now knows nothing about crypto market cycle.

Your calculations are all wrong, you should have ask questions first before coming up with this explanation.

As we crave a 2024 crypto upswing, caution shouldnt wane. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, dance with volatility. Factors? Market feelings, law updates, tech progress, among others.

However, lets recall blockchain's grand potential - Bitcoin's backbone. Its capacity for decentralized, transparent, and secure solutions fosters sector-wide transformation.

So, while eyeing a 2024 price eruption, investing in blockchain understanding and support remains vital. This method boosts possible monetary rewards and propels this revolutionary technology.

I don't know, I'm just enjoying my journey in bitcoin despite all the analysis it all comes back to speculation and the odds are definitely only two between right and wrong it would be great if your analysis is right but it won't really be a hundred percent accurate.
I don't really care about all the talk about things like this actually because we already know for sure that things like this are very difficult to predict.
When it comes to the fate of bitcoin obviously I don't think it determines anything because at the end of the day I still feel that regardless of what happens in 2024-2025 and the worst case scenario doesn't lift then everything remains the same as it is today with many going to be in bitcoin just that the halving is definitely one of the hopes at least for me right now. But regardless of how it will be in the coming years I will still be the same trying to enjoy my journey until my target is actually reached.

The first sentence of your post does not make sense, much like the rest of it. I don't know what expectations you mean but if you wanted to become rich immediately because you bought BTC, i'm sure you have learned a hard lesson. The only guarantee you have when you buy BTC is that it is a censorship resistant currency and you can use it freely without anybody's permission, as for the price, it is volatile and you cannot predict or be sure that it will give you revenue when you hope for it.

2024 will probably be a pretty smooth but not parabolic uptrend. I expect 2025 to be the year that bitcoin really moons for this cycle so we have a little time to go until the fun really starts. Cheap coins are still a thing, probably a good time to load up whilst we’re still under $50,000.

Look at the charts, at the early stages of the covid pandemic bitcoin went as low as 3k and the ATH went all the way to 69k, if that is not an explosive growth then I do not know what it is, so you have your facts wrong and as such your conclusion is wrong as well, as even if 2024 is the year in which the halving will happen most likely a new ATH will not be reached until 2025, so I doubt 2024 will be as decisive as you make it out to be.

There is a technique known as hand cunning law in which one person spreads or tells false answers to the person from whom he wants to get a current answer. And I think you are doing the same by making false statements which I had bolded in your post above.

1.  First one is BTC does not start its bullish trend after every five years it starts its bullish trend after every 4 years when the halving starts and I do agree sometimes a bullish run does not start even after the halving it like takes some time and fall into 5th year but this happens merely.

2. Last surge in BTC price was not in b/w 2017-2018, it was in 2021 which was the last Bull run of BTC.

3. The last one is, BTC would reach 40k to $50k top in 2024 which probability is very less because it is being predicted by analysts and institutional investors that the incoming 12 months will not give BTC that much value which means the next surge might fall into 2025's first quarter.

Well, I am also not saying the same will happen as I mentioned above because it is just my speculation so please DYOR too.

You're absolutely right on the timing for bull rally. I witnessed the 2017 and 2021 ATHs and how they played out and later went into bear rally a year after ATH. I've come to conclude (as it were now) that the bullish run begins to manifest a year before Bitcoin halving and then gets to its crescendo a year after halving. We're in 2023 (pre-halving year) and Bitcoin isn't showing any sign of weakness. It goes to show how prepared investors are gearing towards getting in before the halving year itself. Of course, the expected rally that will take Bitcoin to an unprecedented height in 2025 will be without comparison. I want to believe that newbies to this industry are already preparing themselves for 2025 to enjoy the momentum by making investment a priority.

The 2024 will be the expected year of most of the traders.We can’t assure that the year going to rock,but surely we can able to get some market pump.Because the supply of the bitcoin from the mining was stopped and fixed amount of bitcoin was circulating in the crypto community.So it’s expected to increase the demand in next year.It’s only reason for which the old experienced traders holding their money in the bitcoin as compared to other coins.

2017-18 was massive for Altcoins. LTC AFAIK hit $300 that time, its why it's such a disappointment that in 2021 it didn't.  But the newer altcoins are pumping more. If we have to believe OP, I guess its time to buy the altcoins that have been underperforming since but have been up and running still despite all-year bear market.

If there is something that Shitcoiner will give a shot, it must be DOGE and SHIB, they stay afloat in the top 20.

Here’s how I see the halving-price correlation:

To buttress your point with real time values Bitcoin halving is analytics prediction from Bitcoin trend observers and it's has been kind of falling in place as predicted and from the analysis below truly we'd be looking at 2025 for a mooning or what we call bullrun in Bitcoin price. Take a look at the trend over the years of bitcoin price below:
bitcoin (btc) halving:
new millionaires will born..the only challenge will be that our impatience and maybe lack of capital to buy coins and keep may hinder!

I don’t know the bitcoin exception which failed you, what have you been expecting from bitcoin that already failed you,  because have not been expecting anything from bitcoin, and bitcoin Haven’t failed me in anyway, by the way this is just the middle of the year so how did bitcoin failed you, because I know the only thing you mean by bitcoin failed you is that bitcoin price haven’t pumped massively yet.

What are we going to call what happened at the end of 2020-2021, when bitcoin hit the new all time high, was that not a breakout? I don’t know where you got your information from, but what you said here is completely wrong and nobody knows when the next break out is going to happen, but you claiming it’s happening every 5 years is completely wrong.

Don’t make your expectation high in any year, don’t have a fix year that you think bitcoin is going to pump, just always have it in mind that bitcoin can pump or dump any moment, but you thinking bitcoin will pump by 2024 is wrong, if bitcoin didn’t pump you will end up being disappointed.

Don't forget that the price of BTC is unpredictable, it can still decrease down through out this year and next year just to disappoint those that think the price used to increase every five years. I guess there will be massive pump before the end of this year because, we have seen massive moved of BTC price from $17k to $30k that made many people believed that this year and next year will be a better year for BTC investors because the price show good signal early this year . If you have money, I will advise you to use this period to buy BTC and hold because there will be steady pumping that will last till next year before the price will decrease down again.

I'm sorry but the bull cycle is like every 4 years, 2017 -> new all time high $19,+++, next in 2021 new all time high, $68,+++. So if the pattern continues then 2025, we might see another all time high.

So I will suggest to you to look back and bitcoin's past performance.

As for you advise of buying more, yeah, do DCA. But the best time to buy or accumulate is at the start of the bear market. But then again, we still have less than a year before the halvening so it's not too late.

I also think thats how the whole cycle will play out but no one can tell as all this are just mere speculation on the much expected halving which is supposedly going to take place next year. But the previousl halving was 2020 but the whole pump up of the price didn't actually happen in 2020 but it took place in 2021 where the price actually sky rocketed to around 68-69k and I know every bitcoin is eager to see what the next halving has installed in terms of folks actually hoarding BTC.

That is the fact I think the ops seems have confused the bear market year to the bull market and his thoughts are driven by the 2017-2018 bull market where Bitcoin reached $19,000+ before it slide back into a long period of a bear market.


2021-2022 saw Bitcoin touching another price high that has not been broken up till now unless Bitcoin breaks a new high above the 69k-70k it recorded in the last bull market price.


So from all analysis of the matter, I think ops is an off point and is out of the base to say that ever since the period he mentioned that Bitcoin has not recorded any remarkable price movement even in the recovery direction.

It appears that you overlooked the significant bullish trend in 2021. However, I don't necessarily agree with your calculations. Bitcoin seems to be in a bullish mode at the moment and could experience a price surge at any time. All it needs is a few positive news events and increased adoption. We witnessed how the price of Bitcoin jumped from the $25,000 zone and has since maintained strong positions. I firmly believe that we should prepare for another bull run that has the potential to surpass previous records.

Let say bitcoin price throughout last year is when we experience bearish and if this your analysis come up that time i would have embrace or welcome this your analysis, because i noticed that Bitcoin since this year Bitcoin is showing positivity and comparing the increment of Bitcoin in 2017 and the increment of bitcoins now, i will say is totally different because i believe that Bitcoin price now have not reach to that specific or particular price, but what i know is that Bitcoin have been doing well since this year and we are expecting such increment of 2017 to happen in 2024 and 2025

Yes, many newbie Bitcoiners expectations failed this year, and I can agree that's the right statement to use. Quite a lot of old or experienced Bitcoiners have been used to the market and price history of Bitcoin, and some Bitcoin analysts usually read the candle of Bitcoin and are able to predict a close price of what the next Market trend can be, despite the fact that they are not always accurate in the price prediction. At least a lot of Bitcoiners know when the bear market is in play and they expect less, but when the bull market is set to come, that's when expectations are big, like the way some people are beginning to say that the next bull market will create a new all-time high for Bitcoin.


Cheers 🥂, Dr.Bitcoin_Strange 👺👺

You need to do more research regarding the previous bull and bear market cycles to come up with a better explanation for this, From your analysis, it seems like you were not there during the year 2021 bull run that got us to 69k.

Yeah almost everyone is looking up to 2024 Bitcoin halving but I don't think it is going to be 2024 that Bitcoin may likely make new ATH, the reason is that the market moves in a corrective way,  so before we see new ATH kickstart officially it will enter 2025 in my opinion.

Are you sure you had looked at the Bitcoin price history?  It looks like you year interval is not spot on.  Bitcoin got its ATH on 2013, 2017, 2021, so it is 4 year interval, the year 2024 is for the halving and many hope that the year 2025 will be another all-time high record-breaking again.


Are you sure about this?  The last time I look Bitcoin records its ATH last 2021 how can you say that Bitcoin does not record major price increases after 2018?  I think you need to look at the price history again to make sure that you won't mess up on the year next time.

The last bullrun was in 2021, BTC hits $68k-$69k. 2022 and 2023 are the bearish time, it is the wrong time to expect a major increase. You need to check again the schedule of bearish-bullish season, set a realistic target on the right time.

Here are the previous bullrun seasons and the next bullrun schedule. (4 years cycle)

2010
2011
2012
2013

2014
2015
2016
2017

2018
2019
2020
2021

2022
2023
2024
2025

The next bullrun schedule is in 2025, why do you count it from 2028 to 2023? It should be from 2022 to 2025.
Anyway, the current economic situation seems to bring no impact on the bullrun scheme. In 2021, we were experiencing Pandemic and the economic situation was getting worse. But bullrun still happened in 2021 and the bullrun season still came as expected.

You aren't telling us anything new when you are pointing out that a halvening is coming soon, and traditionally it meant a bull run.

But what you and everyone should remember is that patterns may or may not hold. If a pattern is backed by some mechanism, then it's a rule. If not, than it's just a pattern that will likely break at some point.

It's not clear why Bitcoin was having these bull runs in the past. Was it the objective effect of reduced supply coming from mining, or was it more of a self-fulfilling prophecy?

That interval time is always happens on the US elections time, and because of that the prices always fluctuate following new policies from new government. we shouldn't panic and have to calm down to follow the situation because circumstances always turn around and give benefit to holder. Sometimes a new policy take impact on front only, because it will adjust the situation, after that, a week, a month and year, that impact is slowly down following the bitcoin price starting to rise again.

In 2017 - 2018 bull run, Bitcoin has x20 rise. In 2020 - 2021 bull run, it has like x3 rise. From $1000 to $69,000 within 2017 to 2021 is very big growth. It can not have a stable x20 growth for every four year bull run. When the price is higher and higher, I expect that its bull run in future will have become smaller and smaller.

From $1,000 to $69,000, it is x69 for your capital if you hold. Do you expect it will break a 2020 - 2021 all time high in a bear market? Be realistic please.

What does it mean?

You sentence sounds like you will be disappointed if it falls more, fails to break resistances.

Bitcoin: Bull and Bear market durations (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-25-2023/) and price performance 365 days after halving.
https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/size/w1600/2023/06/Group-3174--1-.png
https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/size/w1600/2023/06/Group-3180.png

Another shitthread made by a newbie who doesnt know nothing.

Man all the years we see this kind of stuff and threads related, the next year other guy comes and say "2025 its gonna be....." like you say most of predictions fails and this its other predictions so by your own logic this its gonna fail.

I know i sound really harsh but its the truth.

in the world of crypto there is always a bear market and a bull market, and because of this I see the uniqueness of the crypto market that makes me interested in investing in btc. but what I know is that the highest price of btc during the BUL RUN is in 2021, just try to check again with you.
I don't think we will know with btc at the 2024 HALVING, but I expect in 2024 and 2025 the price of btc will go up a lot.
but in this case we have to be good at setting strategies because investing in btc requires a good strategy.

Bitcoin hit ATH last year in 2021. I think you lost count, but nothing less than a lot of us are really expecting another ATH or bull run next year, and the following year, as we know, is the halving next year, and a lot of us right now are saving bitcoins. But again, it ain't guaranteed that it will happen, but if we base our predictions on the past, there are really bullruns that happen after a few months or years. Let's just be patient on it.

That's why it happened because Bitcoin is volatile, that's the risk that can be faced by those who buy it, that's why those who plan to invest in bitcoin are always reminded in this Bitcoin industry in this field.

Now, because many people have witnessed that as time goes on, everyone has seen that the value of bitcoin in this regard has not decreased but rather increased, so it can be said that it is good for long-term investment and many investors are do it now and in the future to come actually.

There are two mistakes that you are making here.
First is that you think bitcoin is a profit machine that should give outrageously high profit to the "investor" every year. That's not true. Bitcoin is the only existing decentralized money and it is working fine as that.
Second is that you are ignoring what happened to the world economy. You can't see inflation and recession at the same time in at least half the world (mostly EU and US) and not see its effects on bitcoin.

What was the $70k peak then?!

That's because inflation didn't hit the world alone, it was accompanied by recession and in a recession people liquidate everything of value they have to be able to have money to survive. They aren't buying things like bitcoin. Hence the lack of "exploding rises".

I don't see this changing anytime soon either. There is a good chance that we will see rises but nothing like 2017 exactly because of the ongoing recession that will only get worse as we get close to yet another winter with energy crisis in Europe.

I fully agree with this. Bitcoin enthusiasts and supporters know that Bitcoin will eventually fulfill its fate and destiny though of course there can be some debate on what that fate is. What can happened in 2024 will surely be a part of is exciting history but it will surely not be a make or break one. Surely, 2023 is the best year to accumulate Bitcoin though of course one has to be always mindful of the risks involve.

Over time the price of Bitcoin goes up and there is also a decrease (of course). Price fluctuations will put pressure on investors whether they are strong enough to hold up to high prices or not. Bitcoin is a good main digital asset for the long term. Not without reason, looking at the history of Bitcoin so far, Bitcoin is quite promising for the long term. Reaching a new ATH is Bitcoin's goal when it comes to Halving events. We just have to see if Bitcoin is able to achieve it or not and at least hold on to some Bitcoins for the long term.

Bitcoin's five-year cycle is intriguing. However, Bitcoin is more of a notion than an investment. Instead of cyclical tendencies, its price is driven by its unique value proposition as decentralized, permissionless money. Our shared philosophy is mirrored in the market.

Bitcoin is affected by government economic policy. Indeed, Bitcoin's resistance to inflation and political forces proves its ideals are sound. It continues to break perceptions about currencies, creating prospects for financial freedom.

Your optimistic 2024 forecast is brave. Your enthusiasm for the price hike is contagious. Let's have the confidence to trust Bitcoin, keep our word, and pursue future benefits.

Because they are stupid to expect in a year before halving in which trying to seek for good growth when we already knew it is more than impossible to happen as we have seen for how many times that the 4 year cycle keeps hitting the market.
maybe best to understand the market first before engagement so you will not become one of those losers.

I don't know where you got your data from but for the two I crossed out, they're both wrong. Price went to $18k+ in 2017 after 2016 halving. It did $68k+ in 2021 after 2020 halving also. You may want to crosscheck all that. Anyway, my perspective based on historical data is that 2024 halving will throw in nothing less than $120k as ATH in 2025. It may look an uphill task now but surely it a level ground to speed through when the rally begins.

This is why my mind is on the year 2025, because I believe that's when BTc will make a new all time high again, but still I have a very disciplined mind here, we can be expecting a price surge in November 2023 and another big pump happen, many people who aren't disciplined enough will probably lose the zeal to carry on.

Either ways, it will still favor someone like myself because I see every Bitcoin movement, either up or down as an opportunity, it's going to be a good future I believe.

For the fact that bitcoin as a decentralized money doesn't have daily transaction limits for wallets which make Bitcoin an exceptional financial tool that breaks all the limitation placed by the financial system.

I don't think it's right for you to say that this year's bitcoin hopes are doomed because as you know this year is not over yet.
and it looks like you forgot about 2021 when the btc price was skyrocketing, i.e. around $66900

yes, I think this year is the right moment to buy as much btc so we can make big profits, and get ready for the next BUL RUN.
but for people who have experience in the field of btc, of course they won't be surprised by what is happening to the current market and you need to know that btc has a fluctuating nature.

Just chill, there's the 4 year cycle and that's why after the bull run that we've experienced in 2021, we're heading to the next 2 years which is likely where the bull run is about to come.

I've got plans already for that year and that's just to chill and accumulate while I can. Halving is gonna happen by that year and we all know the effects and impacts of it.

The majority has already got that thinking that the bull run is inevitable for the upcoming years to come and so if you're having no plans yet, you should do now.

Although most people think that OP wrote something wrong when referring to 2017/18 as the time when the last major price change occurred, if we take into account that at the beginning of 2017 the price of BTC was only $1000, then the increase from even x20 to the end of that year is by no means comparable to what happened in the period 2020/21 when the price increase was only x3.5 since the last ATH. Realistically, from the perspective of many small investors, we cannot say that they are wrong, at least as far as profiting from such events are concerned, regardless of whether it is a period of 4 or 5 years.

As for 2024 as the year I don't think it should be given any special significance when it comes to Bitcoin, but the whole obsession with halving and the possible big bull run in the period after that is just a logical continuation of the game in which everyone wants to ensure the best possible position.

I've read numerous reviews from people claiming to be able to predict the Bitcoin price, but the market is unstable and constantly fluctuates due to a variety of factors, including trends and other social influences. I can still clearly remember that in 2015, nobody anticipated that Bitcoin would eventually reach a price of $60,000. Even with technical analysis, predicting the future of Bitcoin is not a sure thing at all and all some people do is predict with the help of historical data. am very sure when the bull run starts it is going to be a hit am very sure of that. Using old data to predict what will happen is not for Bitcoin at all.

So in regards to the analysis you just gave above, I will like to elaborate more in the percentage format trying to see how much percentage did the value of Bitcoin went the next year after halving which will give us a clue what to expect after next year's halving as I will be presenting it as follows.
2012 btc halving price = $182
After a year = $510 (which was almost 300% increase)

2016 btc halving price = $661
After a year = $2,600 (which was also another 400% increase)

2020 btc halving price = $8,600
After a year = $58,000  (which was almost 700% increase)

So if come next year 2024 lets assume if the price of Bitcoin still remains $30k per BTC, a year later the value is likely to go almost 300% to 400% increase, if not 700% increase. (i.e roughly from $90k per BTC to $200k per BTC)

We have seen Bitcoins follow 4 year cycle to reach new all time high price. So yes for that reason people are assuming late 2023 and 2024 will be big for the coins. I have also witnessed Bitcoins falling bad in 2020 and breaking records by touching 69k usd price in 2021. So yes, unlike the others, I also have faith in Bitcoins, and like always it won’t disappoint us. Regarding Bitcoin’s fate, then people will still trade it, if it doesn’t cross 50k usd by the end of 2024. So let’s hope for the best.

You just need patience and strength if you're still holding it. Make sure your grip is strong so it doesn't come off easily when there is a shock.
Who knows the big increase that is expected will not occur in 2024 which will make us have to be patient again for another year (2025).

Improvements always occur but not on a large scale. The effect of the highest price that occurs can be one of the causes for new people to have high hopes after the historic achievement occurred so that when the current price situation makes him think Bitcoin failed to meet expectations.

many people predict and believe that 2024 is the year where the bullrun will occur and the price of Bitcoin can increase very high, because 2024 is the year for Bitcoin halving, so many investors believe that bullrun will definitely occur in 2024, therefore I also started doing DCA Bitcoin at this time, because when the bullrun does occur in 2024, then I will definitely get a big profit.

Many whales know that but do you believe the next bullrun will come in 2024 ?? I don't think so, i thought many people in the world and whales will doing same as your startegy but whales is smart they can switch bullrun to 2025 and manipulate market to make it fear and got profit from them especially Big Investor blackrock has joined crypto market and they have startegy too for conquer of market crypto. Honestly i doubt bullrun will come in 2024

Basically the price of Bitcoin has been hovering around a flat spot this year. However, most investors predict that the Bitcoin market will pump again in 2024. It is hard to say how accurate this may be, but it is certain that the Bitcoin market will again set new records from previous positions. Right now the Bitcoin market in 2023 looks like it could turn into a bull market in 2024. We have seen the Bitcoin market hit its record high in 2021 which is the highest high hit in history. But people have made many prophecies and they have already revealed their plans to us. Bitcoin market halving could happen in 2024/25 and this will make another new history for Bitcoin. And everyone expects Bitcoin to hit the highs.

We are all too familiar with the terrible fluctuations of the Bitcoin price. Even volatility becomes the characteristic that people refer to for this digital currency in particular and the whole market in general. During the last recession of 2018, Bitcoin fell from nearly $20,000 to just over $3,000 per coin. But, just over the past 2 years, this digital currency has had a spectacular breakthrough with a price of up to 68,000 USD, nearly 3.5 times higher than the old peak. At the moment, the bitcoin price has dropped and is currently at 31.00 USD, but because of that, bitcoin has always been considered a mystery.

If you calculate the calculation of the 4 year cycle, then the answer is that the most likely Bitcoin reaches the new ATH is that there is 2025, because ATH was previously created in 2021, I would also approve this if it was according to the 4 -year schedule, but that was not necessarily true it could be faster Before entering in 2025, or maybe more late, because we do not know what syntheses make Bitcoin rise at this time.

For example, if Bitcoin in the next one month is received in various countries, and many who echo Bitcoin, could be one month afterwards Bitcoin touched the highest level of the new level, beyond the technical calculations on the increase and decline in crypto prices could be encouraged with news sentiment. So it's quite difficult to predict, even though we have a schedule in 2025.

What makes you think that many of these bitcoin hopes have failed this year?

In my opinion, the current year is being lived, bitcoin continues to experience a fairly significant increase. Because at the beginning of January, the bitcoin price at that time was only around $ 17k, and now at the beginning of July the bitcoin price has reached $ 30k. In my opinion, with a price increase that reaches that much, bitcoin has experienced a fairly significant increase. So if you say, this year bitcoin has failed a lot, on what basis?

And in 2017 towards the beginning of 2018, at that time bitcoin did experience a very large increase in price at that time. From what I know the price of bitcoin in 2017 was $19k-$20k, and that was a big increase in market price indeed. But if you say bitcoin there hasn't been a big increase after that, maybe you forgot when bitcoin halved bitcoin in 2020 and experienced its highest price in 2021 in the price range of $ 64k. And that is the highest bitcoin price in history to date.
Maybe that's what many bitcoin investors want, buying as much as possible so that when bitcoin reaches a high price it can reap huge profits. Because in 2024 the halving will indeed occur that year, but everything is still in the shadows and no one knows what will happen to the bitcoin price that year. whether the price will experience a big increase, or just an ordinary increase. It's all still a secret, the most important thing as a bitcoin investor is to keep thinking positively.

Many predict that the value of Bitcoin will increase again in 2024, because the journey of bitcoin in times of crisis we have gone through several years that we have passed, although this is not certain to happen but we as crypto users must prepare ourselves to invest in several potential coins, especially bitcoin so that later everything we want we can get, Use the best opportunity possible so that later we are in one of the people who taste success.

We will experience halving next year so that year will be skyrocket. We did not see huge pump this year but we can say that present year is better than previous one so coming year will be better than current year therefore hope for the best and all will occur smoothly.

2022 was not a good year at all but as we look towards 2020 and 2021 so there was increase in price. The bad year is that year in which no increase occurs and not a single individuals get profit but instead of 2022 in every year holder of bitcoin earn huge profit. As you are talking about five years of duration that cycle repeat itself so I think that halving period is four years and halving repeats itself after four years and we are waiting for 2024 to see our next successful year.

But we shouldn't get our hopes up and let alone make us deploy our wealth towards bitcoin on the pretext of being consumed by the sentence 2024 bitcoin will reach its peak again, it's important to be mature and have a strategy in investing in bitcoin because if you have too much hope in something that moves freely like the bitcoin market it will make you disappointed if not as expected.
Confidence is good, but awareness is also important, invest as much as you can afford, it could be that bitcoin needs more time to return to its ATH, like the end of 2025 for example, of course you need another year to wait.

By the way, talking about the increase, Bitcoin has done it to this day from its lowest point at the end of 2022, NormalMunkkin's increase will also be there in 2024, but don't expect a new ATH and you will be successful because of that

Bitcoin ETF approved + Halving will make the prices go to the moon. It's just a matter of time before things will go our way but there are signs that it's already happening the fact that Halving will happen next year. The governments are already up to making some changes to the regulations, especially in Europe.

We expect a bull run soon but it will really disappoint a lot of investors if all these are not going to happen after halving. Every bull run is different though so this is like the super cycle bull run that they are saying, we are going to be rich!

if this year's price is not in accordance with the investment planning you expect, then you just have to wait and keep holding it in the next year. and if the next year that you are waiting for is still not achieved then you will wait for the next year. you may have a plan but no one can really know the success of the investment plan you make.
Bitcoin has grown very significantly because of the trust from holders. and it will always be valuable even if there is a downturn that is not what we expected.

Are we just dismissing 2021 because it wasn't a "massive explosion in price"? So we're now only going to sit up when price goes... what, x10? $300k BTC in 2024?

And oh, price determines Bitcoin fate? Someone forgot to send me the memo, I've been using Bitcoin at $68k and at $400. How unfashionable of me and all the people I know using Bitcoin!

Op your knowledge on Bitcoin is very low so I advise you to go and make some reading and some research more so that you make some reasonable contribution. If you carry this knowledge go further it will affect in the forum. When I came to the forum on the month not April 2021, Bitcoin price was still high at the rate of $40+k and that was a good price as of then, and according to others in 2021 the price was $60+k so I don't know where you got your statistics from.

Through out last year till now, all the predictions are saying that Bitcoin will rise to it bull price in 2024 and 2025 and here your are saying no. Infact I have not seen anyone predicted that Bitcoin would meant it bull market in the year 2023. You are the first person I am seeing to say that.

You missed 2021 that we saw Bitcoin reached the highest price that it has since the invention of Bitcoin. The price was between $69k, it traded at different price but it didn't cross to $70k on any well known exchange that's been tracked by coinmarketcap some exchange traded$69500 while others traded higher or lower. Bitcoin has a cycle of four years and not five. The price in 2017-2018 was $20k before it got the highest price at $69k in 2021.

2024 which is next year is the year of halving, the price of Bitcoin will rise next year but we shouldn't expect anything out of the ordinary for the price of Bitcoin. There's always a mixed reaction for the price of Bitcoin during its halving year as the market might correct right after.

where you got this false information that Bitcoin record ATH in year of 2017-18 and till then Bitcoin has not shown any big positive moment. if we put one glance on btc yearly chart then it clearly show that Bitcoin reached 19000$ in 2017 and then market crashed and btc dumped to 2k, after that it start recovering and make ATH in 2021. now OP totally misguided by someone. it is true that after every big dump btc recovered and made ATH and Its quite possible this time too because halving will be in the next years which will increase further demand. This halving will increase the btc buyers as we seen in LTC it has performing for one month. I request OP to properly research once again and edit your post with correct information.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/03/SDNmm.jpeg
Image Source  (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp)

In what aspect are people expectations failing them this year? We are still in 2023, not really in 2024, for people to have high expectations for the halving and bull run season.
For many, their only goal this year is to accumulate bitcoin or to apply a DCA strategy until the bull run begins. Most crypto investors are operating in this manner.
The halving season, which is scheduled every four years, not every five years as you claimed, is when bitcoin reaches a new ATH after the halving. 
After the last halving in 2020, bitcoin reached a new ATH of $69k in 2021. The upcoming halving will take place in 2024. By 2025, the price of bitcoin will likely changed again to a higher ATH. that might be a $100k bitcoin as speculated by many. 

It's funny when people cartoonishly deflates the essence and value of bitcoin over its price. There were people here who bought bitcoin when it was worth peanuts, there were people here who bought it when it was skyrocketing, does it change the fact that bitcoin was a revolutionary monetary tool that could help bridge people from across the planet? No, I don't think so. I think the essence still remains and even if bitcoin were to drop to the ground like roadkill on 2024 people will still believe in it, because there's use for it and people will find ways.

It's fair that you're thinking bitcoin's fate is decided on 2024 but keep in mind that before bitcoin became this big, it's a monetary tool that was made for the people without any drawbacks or conditions. People like me who saw past the glitter will continue to believe in bitcoin even if it went for a cent tomorrow.

I see that you have some erroneous ideas in your analysis, as several of the community have already told you... On the other hand, I think you want to refer to the Bitcoin Halving, which is an integrated function of its algorithm, which is activated every four years and What will happen specifically in April 2024 when the number of blocks reaches 740,000.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/03/SD7dj.png

The graph shows in more detail what I had told you about, you will be able to notice the behavior in previous years in relation to what was described above.

Source: https://www.ig.com/en/bitcoin-btc/bitcoin-halving#:~:text=The%20next%20bitcoin%20halving%20is,from%206.25%20to%203.125%20bitcoins.

Source: https://www.coolwallet.io/bitcoin-halving-2024-halvening-of-btc-mining-rewards-price-prediction/

The topic made it sound as if something bad was going to happen or is to be expected come 2024.
The fate that is well known is just the Halving. It is programmed already as an event to ensure BTC reaches the 21million mark as at the right time/year stipulated.

Nothing bizarre or extraordinary is expected to happen, except for those who become millionaires and billionaires from gains in the expected bullish season after the halving. Try a DCA investment strategy from now till let's say the late half of the year 2024 and trade it, if you intend to make quick gains or compound for long term profit.
Making the right investment plans prior to this open secret is what would determine your own Bitcoin fate, not the fate of BTC as a cryptocurrency on its own.

It wasn't new to hear rumors and negative expectations during the bear season but guess what, these people become optimistic when the bull season started. And if you get fall into their wrong assumptions, you will also be thinking negatively and join their crusade.
In fact, we saw the price of Bitcoin is moving high and this will continue when the halving comes and the next is a bull run. This year 2023 is not really good to see but next year, that is somewhat more exciting - whether it was fate or not, the rise is certainly going to happen.

Not an enough basis. Also, next year would still be too early to determine the fate of this industry in general, including Bitcoin. There are still a lot of room for improvement. The anticipated Bitcoin halving won't be the only thing to decide for this industry's future or even Bitcoin. Overall addoption on its usage would be more likely to determine what will happen in the future. Recently   banks are opening the door  even if it is thru third party, for cryptocurrency transactions. Still, it is a good thing given that there are issues between cryptocurrencies and baanking institutions. If other countries or alike institutions would be putting trust in this industry, then there's really a bright future for this technology.

What do you mean?
If you mean bullrun or bullish to happen in 2024, it is likely to happen. So far, it never failed, bullish season always happened after the halving. But when BTC to hits a new ATH, no one really knows it. It can be in 2024 or in 2025, it may depend on the situation on the market or the news around crypo/BTC.

2022 should be the best time to buy or collect more Bitcoin. You must remember that BTC even dropped to $17k in 2022. Since the early of 2023, BTC price has increased a bit, it raises to $19k-$20k. If someone wants to accumulate Bitcoin as many as possible, it should be the ideal time in 2022. You already missed the best time to buy if you just plan to buy now. However, it is not too late since BTC price is still at a cheap rate.

The 2017- 2018 ATH was awesome because I just joined this forum then and it was a good time to have invested and make a profit in less than 6 months, I'm not disputing the fact that we has another in 2021 but my claim is that even for an individual that bought bitcoin then at the rate of $17k thereabout is still making a double profit by now if still holding. So either fate or no fate, you still holding the coin at the time when there is a pump in price is the point.

None of the expectations of Bitcoin this year failed if you noticed and judged based on the time when the bullish market started which happened early and last than the previous market. Therefore, the BTC market breakout now because of the previous bullish trend, and the FUD in the market.
Moreover, the market trend shouldn't be expected to be totally intact with the previous market since the crypto market is a volatile market.

I do not know much about this update but I think you're
only assuming so please don't make it a threat to the people out there.

Btc happens to be a market of it's own just as our normal shopping, market places out there where price of goods rises and falls and there's said to be always people in and out there benefiting of the trading regulatory system on the Price levels so therefore, this is applicable to the Btc. There shouldn't be any tension of determining the fate of the Btc at any due time.

This 2023 market is like 2019 market. Both years are in a last year of bear market and they are both preparation for coming halvings one year later. Bitcoin broke out from $30,000 and is bullish now but I will not trade it at this moment. Because after the break out, it can rise a lot to $40,000 or $45,000. Trading it now is risky and if I sell it, it rises more, I will lose my bitcoin, can not buy it back with same amount.

I am holding my bitcoin now, hold very tightly, more tightly than recent weeks.

It is a very volatile market and even in bullish trend, you can lose your money too. If you use leverage, futures trading, you can have more risk to lose.

📊 Market Analysis - July 2, 2023

Bitcoin is spending the weekend in a sideways movement, gathering strength for a new push above $31,000. As I mentioned before, we are in an upward trend, so I anticipate the potential for new local highs in the medium term.

On the news front, the situation remains unchanged, with positive developments such as the launch of ETFs and crypto custodian services by major companies managing significant sums of money.

Today, our long-awaited meeting in Dubai will take place. We will discuss the current situation with colleagues and explore projects that have the potential for the highest returns.

👉 I will provide you with an update after the meeting. Stay tuned!

You expect so much that's why you failed , imagine expecting good in 2023 when this supposed to be a semi bear year?
The halving is coming in 2024 meaning that it will take effect in 2025 at least.
So the cycle is not correct from your understanding.

Halving occurs every four years and not five and thisark the beginning of the incidence to bitcoin bullrun during the period, the last one was 2020 and next year 2024 will be the next Halving we will be having, bitcoin market will be highly volatile during this time and there will be a formation of a new all time high for the market price, but before then, we are aiming at arriving at the last all time high of $68,000 from 2020 Halving, once we get there, things continue to unfolds more better till we get to where the new all time high is taking us to during next halving.

The end of 2024 maybe we can see the bull run happen maybe start from November to December 5-6 month after halving mini bull run will occur.

The only different between 2021 ATH and 2017 ATH is the percentage from the previous ath occurred at 2017 the bitcoin only up around 200% tho it still crazy number

Agreed about the market trend but some crypto investors seem to focus more on the season when the market is doing well than the season when it is bearish.
Although I am not a crypto trader but as you said crypto trading is risky and it is better to go for long. For holders selling now is not a good idea and that's why I look for an alternative instead of selling my BTC now.

Predicting the future fate of Bitcoin is difficult and speculative. Even though Bitcoin has experienced significant price increases in the past, there is no guarantee that the trend will continue in the future. Therefore, it is important not to rely too much on overly optimistic expectations or to make investment plans based on uncertain predictions. It is best to have a well-thought-out strategy and invest wisely according to your goals and personal financial circumstances.

Extend at least mid of 2025 mate , for you not to  feel the frustration and disappointment once the market not brings you what expected.
but from 2018 there is a growth last 2021 means that is 3-4 years and not that 5 years you are mentioning .
and also determining what would be the market fate is depending on what the investors support .
like us , we are small investors but our contribution will be big enough to make this market move a little each time.

You are right, although history has shown us there will be a bull market and bitcoin always generates ATH after each halving, that does not mean history will always repeat itself and it will for sure. There is nothing wrong with bitcoin investors who are expecting history to repeat itself to generate profits for them. But don't be too subjective or put all your faith and dream it will certainly not disappoint us. Everything has a risk and it can happen to us at any time, so always have a backup plan for the worst case scenario.

This forum has been of help to my Bitcoin knowledge and understanding, but it sounds strange with your words that Bitcoin has no guarantee of the trend going as expected even though it has come this long with the same trend.

My believe is that Bitcoin is facing some downtrend but will recover soon; I don't know about the halving people are talking about so I can't join others to predict the price, but the future of Bitcoin is bright and straightforward.

These forum has been helpful for many people including me, by have more knowledge about Bitcoin investment information, like wise Bitcoin halving counting down, that normal increase every 4years, because of the scarce of the Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market where demand is very high that makes Bitcoin all time high. Hopefully by end of 2023 to 2024 Bitcoin price may increase as well all expected.

No one can say out loud what shape Bitcoin's future will take. Analyzing the various surveys of the past year, what it will be like in 2024 can only be guessed but it is needless to say how accurate it will be. I would like to say something from my own opinion since Bitcoin halving is done every four years according to which Bitcoin halving is supposed to start in April 2024. In previous years, the price of Bitcoin decreased before the halving and the price of Bitcoin increased between the halvings. In that case, a Bitcoin price increase in 2024 is more likely, but I am not asserting that it will happen.

I personally as a btc investor expect the price of btc to rise to more than $80k in the next bull market, but it's true what you say, that is our don't know what will happen in the future with bitcoin, so our really have to have a good strategy in investing because the price of btc is very difficult to predict its movements, I think if for example we already have a profit from our investment in btc it is better to just sell it than to lose.

What it would be like to have a crystal ball is something I've often thought about. Sadly, most of us do not possess this psychic capacity. Predicting Bitcoin's future is therefore not a simple task.

Nevertheless, the inherent unpredictability of any financial market shouldn't come in the way of a nice crypto discussion, right? You're correct in saying that you shouldn't just blindly put your money into Bitcoin and hope for the best.

The "B" in Bitcoin doesn't stand for "Bank," by the way. It's still an asset class with high risk and big potential profit. You should do it. Make sure you're not staking everything on the toss of a coin.

As next halving gets closer more and more users are wondering about how BTC will react after this major even from its history.

I always believed that, on the long run, BTC will have an upside general movement. And as we get closer to halving its price also goes up. Let's remember than this year, on Jan 3rd, the price was ~15.000$ and now, for a while, it fluctuates around 30.000$, which is a double value. There are real chances for the price to get even higher as months will pass and, maybe, after halving we may see another ATH.

Obviously, this is not a financial advice, just a personal opinion. I, personally, am trying to hold as much BTC as I can and I only cash out small parts when I face situations which can't be solved by any other means. I never had the "weak hands" syndrome, to say so, so I am not afraid of it. Even if BTC will reach a new ATH I will still not be tempted to sell.

I agree, I also just cash out small amounts when I need extra money. I treat BTC as if it is a last option for me to touch when other means to make and get money is not enough or readily available. So, I feel the same about not having any thoughts or plans on selling BTC even if it reach a new ATH. Of course it can't be the same for everyone, but as much as possible it is best to be smart about decisions like this and think of the long term effects.

This is a healthy thinking. BTC is too rare to spend it. Who knows, maybe in a decade from now on, 1 satoshi would be equal with 1 dollar.


I am always thinking thinking in advance. And I do the same regarding BTC. For example, I decided to buy for my son a small amount each year -- around 250$/year in BTC. Like a sort of pension. I was thinking to offer them the total stash, as a gift, when he'll turn 18 or 25. Better when he'll turn 25, as he'll me more mature then... At 18 he may simply cash it out and spend it immediately. In any case, this is a provision I am making for 3-4 years now and I am curious to see what BTC value will be when my son will be 18 years old.

Your information is totally wrong, the Bitcoin has got huge bull market in 2020-2021, and it reached its all time high during that time. No body expected high levels for Bitcoin this year because we all were already aware that Bitcoin will go high only after the 2024's halving event. We are still positive about it, and I can surely say that Bitcoin will cross its all time high once again in 2024-2025. Record my words that Bitcoin will cross its all time high in 2024-2025, and anyone who have invested in Bitcoin even this day will have more than 2x the amount of his/her investment.

I think 2024 or 2025 will not matter for those who will be able to understand the importance of Bitcoin. All they need to understand they will hold Bitcoin for the long term. There are many who are waiting for the bullish trend of Bitcoin and they are sometimes expressing disappointment towards Bitcoin due to various global economic factors. If they hold Bitcoin for a long period of time rather than focusing on a specific year, they can only get that desired Bitcoin moment. Bitcoin will enter the bull run in the future with more strength than the progress showed in 2018 to 2021.

We are going to see something big happen for sure, if the cycle thing happens again and we end up seeing price start going up again after the halving, that means that it is real and it happens every time before the halving and the next one could be even bigger, because more people will be aware of this cycle and it would be almost like guaranteed.

We have seen it at 2017, seen it at 2021, and if we see it at 2024 as well then we are going to be certain about it. I think it will spill over to 2025 as well, not going to start and finish in 2024, but that is of course only if it happens. This is why we should be pretty careful about it, I am not seeing anything major changing at the time and we need to be a lot more patient about it.

Actually, Bitcoin has been very volatile in the past few years, it is really difficult to read the movement of Bitcoin if it is really going in the right direction. But I believe that in the coming 2024 there are many expectations that Bitcoin will reach or reach its 100k$ each in the market and this is also my expectation that I cannot avoid.
Apart from that, as time goes on or time passes, the value of Bitcoin increases even if we say now that it is low in the market.

It's kind of reckless to just make a statement (marked in italics above) as if it were set in stone.
Personally I also believe there is a high chance of another ATH somewhere closely after or before the next halving cycle - however it is everything but guranteed.

One important thing to consider: The more certain a market move seems, the more people are aware of it beforehand, the less likely it is to happen - because everybody already has the information, it could alreay be priced in.
Still, there could be an overlap of other cycles and these in combination with increased scarcity of BTC gives a good chance for another massive bullrun within the next 1 - 2 years. Also, increased adoption is always in favour of Bitcoin and it's never certain when major steps on that path will be reached. Maybe sooner than later.

I don't know how "reckless" you think that comment is when you see something reoccurring over and over. Both of us have witnessed two full Bitcoin circles since we registered here. Your profile tells me that we both got in here the same month. It's also likely that we may have passed through one or two similar experiences as members here, isn't it? So, what makes my being certain that halving history will repeat itself as was in the past "reckless"? Yes, I know this is crypto and there shouldn't be strong hold on certainty but I want to differ on that in relation to halving. Bitcoin will experience another ATH after halving. Mark my word.

I guess that’s the most awaited part if you are a bitcoiner, seeing bitcoin halving nearly approaching. However, that does not mean that bitcoin and other crypto prices will immediately surge high when bitcoin halving is here. No, it will still take months before you can see the final effect of bitcoin halving into the market.

The author did not take into account the events of 2021 for some reason and there are several more inaccuracies in his report. Perhaps the author is a beginner or just wants to draw attention, incorrect analysis, incorrect data
It might not be bad for your analysis to be correct, but it is not. It is very difficult to predict anything with certainty regarding bitcoin or any other currency. And I'm not sure it even makes sense

You miss some important points here. Bitcoin price has reached an all time high with $65k way back in November 2021 so definitely, it’s not 2018 but 2021 was the last profitable year for bitcoin. And perhaps with this approaching bitcoin halving, which is expected to happen sometime in 2024, bitcoin price will definitely skyrocket again along with established altcoins in the market. So do the DCA as early as now, so that we will have the best harvest when bitcoin halving is finally around.

You are saying this because of the near bitcoin halving that is almost around the corner. Well you’re right, but never expect that everyone will be given the best advantage when bitcoin halving is happening because it still depends on how much you prepared for it.

But I want to correct your wrong analysis based on how you perceived about bitcoin’s journey. 2018 was indeed a bearish moment for bitcoin, same with year 2022. However, 2021 was a great year for bitcoin because its price reached an all time high that time that put $65k as the latest all time high for bitcoin. By 2024, we are expecting a new all time high again, depending on the effect of this approaching bitcoin halving.

Definitely on point on which this do really pertains that OP did miss out some spot on his analysis and some research on which it is really that misleading into those newbies who would really be able to read up.
5 year cycle? Not its not it is really hat indeed 4 year cycle on which this is usually getting in line with Bitcoin halving which Bull run do kicks in after several months of such event on where
market prices do really rise up into certain extents on which it is really that way more higher compared into its previous highs and this is what investors and supporters that had been anticipating.

Although, when it comes to crypto investments, its never been that risks-free on the first place on which means that despite on knowing about those probabilities basing up on the history but doesnt mean that it would
really be happening in the future. We do know that future isnt something that assured or really that been known whether this market would really be still getting such demand and recognition or there
would be something new that would be taking up place. No one knows but basing and seeing on the current market condition on which it is unlikely that we would be heading there.
Recognition and adoption is still continuing and there's no way on stopping it midway.

People know that when the Bitcoin halve is occur the price will go higher. They don't know the right timing when to invest during halving. I believe that there's a lot of manipulation which put in people's mind that Bitcoin's price will drop because people that time were so greedy. So If I were you, I will wait for the manipulation to be done before I buy Bitcoin because I believe that after that the price will drastically move higher. I hope that all of us maximized the profit from that opportunity.

Your analysis about bitcoin price in the past is incorrect, I would want you to go back make research about the last bull market in bitcoin,  you need to know you can't predict the future of the market because it might not actually be the way you think it will be . If you are trying to predict the market it can lead to get distracted and not to concentrate with your investment. If you want invest in bitcoin hodl and take your mind from predicting when to gain profit, doing this it will help you in making a successful investment at the end of everything. 

English is not my native language, so reckless may be too strong of a word.
Generally speaking I think it's not a wise way to be "certain" about any kind of upcoming market situation (unless you truely have insider information). That's why, even with previous experiences it seems irresponsible to me to state anything like this prediction as facts - because it still is just speculation.
Especially for newbies, let's assume they have a certain expectation - if it doesn't turn out to be true this time, they might just panic sell at a certain point and hate Bitcoin from then on. Sure, not a wise decision, but just how people tend to behave if they have certain expectations without a solid foundation of knowledge and it turns out these expectations are not met.
btw, I've been in the crypto space for even longer and been on Bitcointalk since eraly 2016 but forgot my old login data, as I wasn't really checking this forum much back in the day.

It’s not bad to expect but we should try not to put all our hopes in it, otherwise it will be hard to move on when the year 2024 does not still show any significant price increase. Although history may sometimes repeat itself, but there’s still not enough guarantees that the same thing will happen this year. However, it’s still best to prepare your investment today so that if bitcoin halving is already around, at least you can still dive with the hype.

You've been here that long but you seem not to have given yourself enough time for perusal or trust information from historical data to make forecast of the future. If there were any skepticism on Bitcoin, I think it's gradually getting dismantled now unlike what we had in the past. I don't see why you still hodl tenaciously to things going wrong while we approach a halving year. Listen, I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't take a beat up from time to time but I haven't seen that beat up take place during halving or post halving. Anyway, I've said enough already on this from my conviction. Your reality and expectations don't have to align with mine, neither do mine with yours.

Bitcoin's all-time price increase hit 68k in 2021. And I see the four year cycle indicates bitcoin halving in 2024 but bitcoin price doesn't hit that much in that year. But going to the next year in 2025, the price of Bitcoin will definitely increase. Because in 2020 there was halving but in 2021 the price of Bitcoin reached the highest mountain height. We look forward to this future Bitcoin halving and the potential for some good new all-time highs.

the four-year cycle is indeed our hope to welcome the bullish season, but we shouldn't be too sure about the four-year cycle, considering that there is no certainty in the market, it could happen before 2025 or even more than 2025, I say this so that we don't feeling disappointed if it turns out that we have to go through a more expensive wait than that. my hope is that at the end of this year biltoin has started a bullish season, considering that at the end of every year there are also those who have confidence that the market will go up

looks like op forgot about the event that happened with bitcoin in 2021 but i think it's an important event because btc at that time the price was very high, which was in the $60k range, but i think op please understand because he's still new in this forum or he forgot .

indeed psychologically people are always like that and think there will be an increase after every 5 years, even though it is not certain, but I personally hope that in 2024 and 2025 the price of btc will be very high.

Yup, I see people make the mistake of nailing everything, they claim bitcoin will definitely go up in 2024 and they forgot that future is unpredictable, there is no guarantee that history will always repeat. There's nothing wrong with expecting everything to be fine in the future, but don't be too subjective and have contingency plans for the worst-case scenario.

Given what is happening, the bitcoin price increase is inevitable but do not be subjective about when it will happen. If 2024 or 2025 bitcoin has not yet appreciated, keep holding for the future.

I think you should re-read what I wrote again.
First of all, I do have certain expectations/hopes. But I am not delusional in the way that I would state them as facts and certainty. There is a good chance we see a pretty nice Bitcoin price increase close before or after the next halving. But, again, it is not set in stone. No one can predict what's coming.
I replied to the post because it implied things were certain. That's my point of critique. Because nothing is certain and another ATH definetely isn't certain at all. Even though I believe there is a good chance, I would never write a sentence saying "Bitcoin will reach $100k at that and that date 100%". Because it's utter bs. And the longer you are in this crypto space, the less you should tend to make these prophet-like statements.
Any kind of guru-ism or prophet like predictions are toxic to any new investors with little experience.
You can be a true believer (I'd call it more an understander - education is key here) in Bitcoin and still avoid that stuff (predictions) like the plague.

History doesn't always repeat and nothing is certain in the cryptocurrency market. While there have been historical patterns and trends in the past, there is no guarantee that they will recur in the future. Each market and each cycle has its own special things, it is difficult to accurately judge this. So the story here is just to discuss the fun things, not to believe that it will be an affirmation that the outcome of this market will be in the future. Good luck !

It is not so good that we do without history. History is so important in anything that has to do with speculation.
For instance in gambling, especially sports betting, history is always a very great determinant of the outcome of the event and also in the cryptocurrency industry.

History has always repeated itself. The only reason that history might not happen is a very strong fundamental that is strong enough to destabilize the flowing chart and history that has preceded its occurrence. If everything happens normally in the absence of war, covid-19 or any other unforeseen circumstances history is a very strong tool to determine the price of Bitcoin

Absolutely true, but often the world unfolds in ways that defy our expectations and calculations. We might elevate our hopes by studying history, yet the capricious hand of fate remains enigmatic.
As long as there are no verified time travelers recounting the future conditions of BTC, it shall remain shrouded in mystery. Despite meticulous calculations and calculations, the future remains unpredictable. Only the divine knows what lies ahead for BTC, whether it shall falter or triumph; no one can truly ascertain.

Divine things?
Time travelers?

I dont see for these things to be that relevant for us to connect out these things when it comes to price conditions.It is really just that right that we should really be that trying out to accept our fate
in speaking about total unpredictability of the market in terms of its price because there are lots of factors on which it would really be able to affect its success. If the recognition and demand would really be still intact then we would be able to assume out that it would really be existing for a while and its not something that we could be able to say about being over or would be eradicated.
Demand would be the primary factor in according into its relevance. We didnt even expect for Bitcoin to be able to hit up this high in terms of value.

Your conviction in bitcoin is valid because of how the price of bitcoin has reached its ATH in the past two halving seasons.
As you mentioned, the bitcoin ATH always takes place months after the halving season. Before the halving season, none of the bitcoin ATHs existed. They were all realized several months later. Therefore, the next bull run that we anticipate won't be an exception to the rule that it won't occur months after halving. Although no one knows what the ATH of bitcoin will be this time. I anticipate the bull run to begin around 2025. What we can predict  is that the price will only increase more than the previous ATH of bitcoin.

If you were around in 2017/2018 and witnessed the bitcoin price pump back then, then right now, I am really wondering how you missed the 2020/2021 pump, which to me, is the highest pump in the history of bitcoin till date, so this to say that your analysis is wrong, just like act said.

For all the pumps I've witnessed since I got into bitcoin, breakout in price has always happened during bitcoin halving which occurs in every 4 years cycle, so yeah, the next bitcoin halving is going to happen in 2024 i think, and many are already speculating that this time around, bitcoin is going to hit $100,000 and above, this was the price many investors expected bitcoin to reach in the last bull run, but unfortunately, it couldn't make it to that amount, but rather, it started retracing after it reached $69,000 or very little above that.

So right now, all fingers are crossed, waiting to see what will happen in the coming halving.

It's not only a psychological thing, it's what actually happened. Bitcoin is going to be more and more scarce and more people will want to buy because of that. Still today I can't believe that soon we should have a bitcoin spot ETF, that means that a lot money is ready to enter the market just in time for the halving. I don't know what could happen but for sure 2024 and 2025 will be very interesting years for the bitcoin community.

lol you seem to like the word five huh? ( I'm just messing with ya ).  That said, when people to to derive patterns off of bitcoins history, I find it kind of silly being that it's still a new technology in it's infancy, and so it's history is brand new, and trying to derive patterns, especially patters of five, for something that been around for what, 13 years.. that just doesn't really make any sense.

Personally, I'm cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's future. It's clear that cryptocurrencies, in general, have changed the financial landscape in a significant way, and Bitcoin is at the forefront of that revolution. So, while there might be ups and downs along the way, but the overall trajectory seems still promising.  8)

None of us can still hold guarantees if bitcoin’s fate will completely happen by 2024. Yes, bitcoin halving is coming but it’s effect is not felt immediately. Trading back history, the crypto prices will only gain its bullish effect several months after halving so if it will appear by the last quarter next year, then perhaps we will feel its effect by 2025. So just prepare for now, and always invest what you can only afford to lose, so that you won’t pressure yourself selling for profits when the market isn’t completely bullish yet.

Bitcoin halving is not the only factor that will determine its fate, but it’s probably the best known factor that is proven by many. So you are partly correct in your assumption mate, but did you know that bitcoin halving effects are obviously not seen right at that moment? If you have seen from the past halvings, instead of expecting the market to be bullish, the market instead becomes looks more bearish at the start but after months from the bitcoin halving event, the bullish signs will then start to appear. So most likely, 2024 might not be the best year for bitcoin, but I would say it’s 2025, just my own point of view.

It's true that the bitcoin market is driven by other factors besides bitcoin, and the halving is one of those factors. However, in the past, it has also been noted that there is also a boost in the market during the halving, and the majority of people think that there will be an effect on the market. Additionally, it is already known that the market will be prosperous. Not everyone will eventually benefit from the market, thus we should all start preparing for the environment's inevitable halving to be green. We should all take advantage of this and profit so that we won't regret it later.

   

While I agree with you that 2024 is important for the next period of the bitcoin market, I think we shouldn't be putting too much pressure on the BTC price to reach a certain level. Many investors have already spent the last 18 months to add to their Bitcoin holdings as they expect a price rise in 2024 due to the halving. Don't get me wrong, like you I am very optimistic for the next year and expect prices to rise. The problem is if many investors all expect the same thing, it can lead to a problem if the situation turns out differently. In case investors are using more money than they should and already rely on a big profit coming from Bitcoins next year, this could turn ugly very quickly. Even if the prices only rise moderately to 35-40,000 USD for example, investors could start selling their coins in large quantity to take the profit they need. Which would lead to large drops in prices. The long-term trend of Bitcoin is positive and it’s only a matter of time before we reach another ATH, just don't feel bad when your price target is not reached in 2024.

Not really sure about that. Just because bitcoin halving is near does not mean that it could be the best year for bitcoin. Bitcoin halving may bring a great positive impact to the market but know that it does not happen right after bitcoin halving has occur. If you trace the past bitcoin halving, the market only becomes bullish after a couple of months so if bitcoin halving may appear at the last quarter of 2024, then most likely 2025 will be the bullish year for bitcoin.

The market is widely vague and unpredictable so there’s no chance that any prediction will certainly come into reality. And if there’s any, it’s only rare to happen especially that the market has a lot of factors to consider why all these things are happening.

When you say that 2024 is the fate for bitcoin, maybe it could be true because of the upcoming bitcoin halving but we can’t still give assurance if bitcoin halving this time will still create the same effect from the past bitcoin halvings. Know that the market is never fixed and certain, so whatever event may happen, the results may also come out differently.

No, I do not agree that 2024 will determine Bitcoin's fate. I believe some people said 2023 will determine Bitcoin's fate too. The way I see it, no single year will determine Bitcoin's fate.
If Bitcoin doesn't get to a new ATH in 2024 it doesn't mean it can't get to an all-time high in another year.

By the way, Bitcoin did not fail this year. It showed a lot of positive signs this year and the year ain't over yet. 

If you look at some of Bitcoin's past prices, you'll definitely know when Bitcoin was at its peak. If you look at the year 2020/21 you can definitely see that Bitcoin reached its peak. But you mentioned here that bitcoin price was peak in 2017-18 but you have given it completely wrong information. You set the year 2022 as the lowest price of Bitcoin where Bitcoin was at the edge of a bear market. So how do you say bitcoin market was better in 2022 than 2018?? The information you gave is completely wrong, but if you see the events of Bitcoin halving, then you will definitely understand.  Every four years Bitcoin halves and the market becomes a bull market. As the next halving is likely to be in 2024/25 and this is when the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly and the market will peak.

I agree with you, there is no year that determines the fate of bitcoin, if in 2024 or 2025 bitcoin cannot increase in price, then in the more distant future it will surely generate ATH. The growth of bitcoin depends on many factors, of which demand will determine the majority. So, it's wrong to think that if the 2024 halving fails to boost the price of bitcoin, that doesn't mean it will never go up. The halving was a big factor in creating bitcoin's price rise, but it wasn't the only factor.


Many people think bitcoin has failed this year because it didn't go up in price as they expected, and they blame bitcoin. That's funny, because not a single asset that goes from $1 to $30k is considered a failure. They failed with their plan because they didn't make a profit and then, they blamed bitcoin.

You seem to misunderstand the fundamentals! Predicting the market isnt about certainty; its about probabilistic outcomes. The upcoming bitcoin halving? Sure, its an important event, but pinning all hopes on it is sheer foolishness. The past doesnt predict the future, especially in a dynamic and ever-evolving market. If you're so convinced about the market's unpredictability, maybe its better to stay away rather than opining without a basis. Every halving, every event, every shift has its unique circumstances.

I am very optimistic about the growth of Bitcoin in the coming year and there will certainly be a lot of scams out there that must be watched out for in terms of holding Bitcoin and others, because Bitcoin growth will continue to increase after the halving occurs because these moments will continue to rotate in a 4-year cycle and even that has become a culture in Bitcoin, so only one can take advantage of that moment and use bitcoin as well as possible in the future.