Bitcoin Forum

I know it's random and blocks are only found on average once every 10 minutes. And there is the conformation bias, but I am beginning to think I *do* have a superpower and it's the ability to stop blocks from being found.
Sent a 6 sat/vb transaction 40 minutes ago, seconds after the last block. And now....no blocks for 40+ minutes.

And 6 sat/vb is not going to happen for 4+ blocks.

Feels like every time I send a TX with *just enough* of a fee to probably make it into the next block.

Just a Friday complaint, back to your regularly scheduled forum reading.

-Dave

You can raise the fee if it's Replaceable-By-Fee (RBF) or use Child-Pays-For-Parent (CPFP)

This is more of a psychological reading of the subject than an actual observation of a pattern. This reminds me of people who complain that every time they move up a level in poker they get bad cards and if they change sites for example, or modality, they get a good streak, when the reality is that streaks do not exist from a mathematical point of view.


I understand that your comment is a bit ironic, but how big is the sample on which you base your superpower. 10 transactions sent? 100? 1000?


And what does that have to do with his "ability" to delay the founding of a new block?

Oh, I know that. It was just the 3rd of 4th time it happened to me recently. The next block just came in at the 48 minute mark.
Not worth bumping the fee, I am just opening a lightning channel, but I wound up with that feeling of every time I don't use a large fee we have a big pause between blocks.

I'm sure there have been dozens of times with I set the fee a bit lower then I should have and a few blocks came in back to back in a few minutes. But, you really don't remember those as much.....


Probably the 10 number. But, do you want me to get out the spandex superhero costume? You may need eye bleach if you look.

-Dave

It always happens to me, I monitor the averages of the last blocks here https://mempool.space/ and the moment I decide to send, the average of 30 minutes of last blocks turns for the worse with out the possibility of finding 2 blocks in less than 10 min to +40 minutes and a delay of more than +15 minutes between each block.

What annoys me more is that I see that my transaction No. 500 is on the queue line and some blocks accept up to 3000 transactions, and suddenly the number increases until it becomes 6000 and I have to wait again, and after the block mining time approaches, the number increases to find that my transaction exceeds 3000 and no other block has been mined in a lesser than 10 minutes.

I now send the transaction and close the browser instead of waiting.

EMCDPool already shattered your "superpower" hehe. It looks like it's back to regular operation so just maybe 2 or 3 more blocks before your transaction is mined so you're still good I guess. Some unlucky senders that used 6 sats/vb had to wait a longer time because we got caught up in the spike due to the ordinals craze.

I think the key is in this, and it is similar to what I was saying before about poker.

He'll at least get his confirmations if the next block's sat/vB goes above 6sat/vB.


I'm well aware of that 48-59 minute mark when blocks get a confirmation.
Mostly I saw either a few blocks (mostly 3-5) get confirmed within the 20-minute mark a few of those blocks gets confirmed within 10 minute mark.

I have never used Lightning channel so i can't comment on that.

CPFP is an available option  for him if his transaction has a change  in amount sufficient  to cover the raised fee, or he is in the full control of the transaction's destination address with enough money on it.

If I were in his shoes , I would wait. These days we have already  witnessed  fees of less than 5 sats/vbyte.

It happens to everyone though which will make a frustration for sure but everytime after a block took too longer to be mined then the upcoming 2 or more blocks will be mined in next few minutes so don't worry about this and to feel better always choose a fee that required for 0.8 or 0.6MB from the mempool to avoid this most of the times.

When you carefully observed optimal fees for the past blocks and you're trying to hit bull's eye, Murphy's Law hits you. Of course the next block takes ages to be mined, more silly ape pictures pop into mempools to be inscribed. Yeah, it's always Murphy, again... again...

Spandex superhero... Eye bleach? :o  No, anyone want to buy my head cinema ticket?  ;D

Time taken for a block to me mined does not affect the time for the next block which is in line. It's not a case where if a block takes too long before being confirmed the next one will take a short time, it's just about how fast miners can solve the puzzle.

Only at the point if difficulty adjustments can the time taken for block confirmation be adjusted.

Technically there is no relevance for the time take between each block should be like that but as far as I witnessed since I am using Bitcoin most of the times the network behaved in that way which is why I mentioned it.

Here is the example

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/07/ZZXkv.jpeg

After the block 797669 the next 4 blocks were mined in the time interval of 18 minutes especially the first 2 in the 3 minutes.

6 sat/vb is still fine though.

But I understand your rant, it always happen to me, when I saw mempool and it's cheap like what you have seen lately at 6 sat/vb, then suddenly it will go on 14 sat/vb and damn, same feeling, if I could just have increased it a bit then it will be in the next block.

Now I felt that I just did it with just enough fee to be confirm maybe in the next 30 minutes or so.

And then watching it in mempool to be confirmed and hearing that sound.

I'll still give a 40 mins a longer wait, since im not always in rush ^{(well, most of the time)}. Usually i give my transaction 2-3 hours of waiting since i only do 5-10 sat/vb when making a transaction.