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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: Stepstowealth on September 22, 2023, 06:42:14 PM



Title: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Stepstowealth on September 22, 2023, 06:42:14 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: jrrsparkles on September 22, 2023, 06:50:15 PM
Satoshi said this in 2010.

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

So he kind of predicted what would be the outcome of Bitcoin if people accepted it but he may not expected that more people would be accumulating Bitcoins for investment purposes rather than using to for making payments and cutting the centralized entity as the middlemen. But Bitcoin is becoming inevitable year by year so this is good and going in the way that he would have expected.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: albert0bsd on September 22, 2023, 07:03:15 PM
Satoshi said that:

The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.  If the price is below cost, then production slows down.  If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more.  At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.


He knows that the price will be volatile at the beggining.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: The Cryptovator on September 22, 2023, 07:04:19 PM
As we know, Bitcoin was created to make a hassle-free p2p money transfer without third-party involvement worldwide. I assume Satoshi never thought at the beginning that Bitcoin would be volatile like now. Instead of focusing on Bitcoin use cases, we are more interested in making money from them. However, Bitcoin has now become the most popular cryptocurrency worldwide. Satoshi got more than he expected from Bitcoin; we are getting an advantage from his dream coin.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Artemis3 on September 22, 2023, 07:16:12 PM
Anything is "volatile" if there is no State intervention, and that's the way it should be. Even gold fluctuates, but after extraction diminished and market availability lowered it became less and a less fluctuating but it still is.

If something never changes price you have a big problem, something is artificially withholding it creating a distortion which someday will burst. Re educate, things must have price that changes, that means freedom and healthy market, competition will naturally normalize things, and "normal" means price can change. You are the buyer and have the power to decide to buy it or not.

Value is subjective, changes in location and time. There is no intrinsic or extrinsic value, the power is in the buyer not the worker (Goodbye Marxism). Vote with your wallet, what you buy creates information which directly affects the future. Market price is nothing more than the result of a permanent election, direct democracy = free market.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: avikz on September 22, 2023, 07:18:45 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Inventor usually has a vision but that doesn't mean that the vision will match the reality. There could be many things which Satoshi probably have never thought about. For example the block size. If he had envisioned that Bitcoin's transaction volume will be so huge, he would made it in a different way to accomodate more space.

So it doesn't matter what Satoshi had envisioned. What matters is the free market which decides the next course of action. Not a government or cash rich corporation decides that for us!


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: franky1 on September 22, 2023, 07:21:05 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.

simple economics
if back in the olden days someone in the middle east can CPU mine for $0.004/kwh and someone in hawaii can mine for $0.40/kwh then there would be a economic speculation of cost window range of 100x across the planet. and with bitcoin being an international currency where different countries become aware and utilise bitcoin at different times. then yes obvious economics shows that volatility/speculation change is standard for a international currency based on an electric cost of production.

then add in factors like the hash competition of more miners joining raising the cost. and then difficulty. and then eventually halving of rewards. then it all adds up to a volatile market

bitcoin was not meant to be a stable fiat replacement for one nation with no price change. it was meant to change and grow with utility and speculate above base costs of production


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Adbitco on September 22, 2023, 07:36:50 PM
Before bitcoin gets to this level satoshi knew it from the very day one of creation so, even some companies that manufactured things knows how it would be and the durability of what they are producing the cost of it in time to come and so many more. So Satoshi knew what he was doing and i am not sure he created bitcoin for only peer to peer purposes only despite he mission was to make payment system easily as possible but he also knew that in time to come people could finds more valuable aspect of bitcoin.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: salad daging on September 22, 2023, 07:53:40 PM
As we know, Bitcoin was created to make a hassle-free p2p money transfer without third-party involvement worldwide. I assume Satoshi never thought at the beginning that Bitcoin would be volatile like now. Instead of focusing on Bitcoin use cases, we are more interested in making money from them. However, Bitcoin has now become the most popular cryptocurrency worldwide. Satoshi got more than he expected from Bitcoin; we are getting an advantage from his dream coin.
That's the first thing I know of that solves the complexity with the involvement of third parties so with the existence of bitcoin created by satoshi with bitcoin is for someone who is happy with P2P everyone is free with it without other intermediaries.

But who would have thought that this was more above satoshi's expectations maybe so, how this bitcoin growth rapidly for more than a decade, people began to invest even with several other large institutions that could generate considerable profits even though the price still fluctuated, We are happy and we have also benefited more in bitcoin.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: South Park on September 22, 2023, 08:02:38 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
It is difficult to imagine he did not imagined the current scenario, after all both gold and fiat currencies are traded in specialized markets, so it makes sense that bitcoin is also traded and used as an investment, now some may argue he may not have imagined that this particular use will surpass its use as money, but that makes no sense either, as even if gold was used for thousands of years as money right now is mostly used as an investment and as a way to preserve our wealth.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: pooya87 on September 23, 2023, 05:43:33 AM
do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
The real question is: what difference would that have made if he knew that? Could he have designed bitcoin in a different way to prevent volatility? The answer is no, it would not have made any difference and the design would have been the same. So knowing or not knowing it is not important.

Besides, I personally believe that this volatile price is just a phase. It may last another 5 to 10 years to reach mass adoption and stability but stable value (not price) is going to be the final result after mass adoption. After all Bitcoin is still pretty young and in its initial phase.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: mk4 on September 23, 2023, 06:14:15 AM
I'm pretty sure Satoshi himself or anyone with decent markets knowledge would immediately know that such an asset as bitcoin will guaranteed to be this volatile. Even by just knowing how controversial and debatable bitcoin is and will be.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Woodie on September 23, 2023, 06:31:50 AM
Satoshi said that:

The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.  If the price is below cost, then production slows down.  If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more.  At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.


He knows that the price will be volatile at the beggining.
This fine detail from Satoshi hits different, knowing too well that is what's actual happening atm!!

Btw at the moment markets aren't as active because many bought at a premium price and forced to hodl as price is in red on their books not until price climbs back up for them to break even or go for the profits..and this will only happen with new players to buy the cheap coins.

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.
With supply and demand at the center of everything, he definitely knew bitcoin would be volatile based on selling and buying that will always tilt the swing here and there and not forgetting bitcoin isn't pegged to anything will always have the characteristic of volatility written all over it.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: TravelMug on September 23, 2023, 07:11:08 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

For sure he knows that as well,

Quote
"When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes. At some point, it gets too expensive for them to buy any more."
- Satoshi

So in a hindsight he foresee that at some point, it will be traded, i.e. buy and sell, supply and demand and that it will be expensive, as just what we have seen in the last 2 halvings, and in this incoming 2024/25 bullrun, we might see for the first time the price hitting 6 digits.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Kakmakr on September 23, 2023, 07:43:15 AM
He developed this technology with a similar concept of how "Gold" are used. People can use "Gold" as a payment option and they have done this in the old days... or they can trade with it or they can use it as a commodity.

The thing with Gold id the weight ...and it became impossible to use it as a currency.. because nobody wants to walk around with heavy Gold to make payments. (They then linked promises on a piece of paper that are honored by a government that the paper were linked to Gold.... but that also did not work out)  ::)

Satoshi knew that Bitcoin would evolve ... and he designed it for that purpose.  8)


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: bayu7adi on September 23, 2023, 08:10:21 AM
The future demand cannot be controlled by anyone. Perhaps, on the day of its inception, Satoshi did not anticipate that Bitcoin would grow larger than its initial conception. Satoshi created only 21 million BTC, and this may have been intended for a more niche audience rather than a global one. The rise in BTC's value due to increasing demand, regardless of its ultimate purpose, adheres to economic theory principles.

I do not blame Satoshi; although their vision may not have been realized perfectly, their pioneering adoption deserves recognition. Currently, there is no other decentralized currency that truly rivals Bitcoin in terms of popularity.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: 348Judah on September 23, 2023, 08:15:47 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.

The only accomplishment i see with Satoshi Nakamoto is in the successful launch of bitcoin and how he found out that everything works perfectly as he has planned, people can have other alternative means of making payments using a different technology and remain decentralized, though he may and may not have thought about these occurence so fast to where bitcoin is today, but he believes it's a digital currency everyone will love to adopt.

do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Bitcoin was intended as a currency and you're not expected to buy or sell currency, you can only exchange for it or earn it just as you earn fiat and you don't buy it.



Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: fuguebtc on September 23, 2023, 09:57:21 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

We are not him so we cannot know whether he anticipated these things or not. But as far as I remember, he never mentioned bitcoin as an asset, commodity or investment in the bitcoin's whitepaper, he just focused on explaining it as a peer-to-peer payment method.

There was also a topic recently, how does Saotoshi feel about seeing bitcoin deviate from the path he intended for bitcoin. There have been a lot of mixed opinions around that topic but to me it's all just fun discussion because we're not him and no one knows where he is. So how can we know what he is thinking about bitcoin's today?


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: hugeblack on September 23, 2023, 10:46:41 AM
The fact that Bitcoin is volatile is an indication that it is decentralized, as there is no central bank that pumps liquidity to maintain a stable exchange rate or establishes policies that encourage people to save, as the Federal Reserve does. Therefore, everyone, even Satoshi, knows that Bitcoin during the first years will be very volatile, but over time it will become more stable and volatile. Within the limits of 30%, which we can say is similar to the stock market.
The behavior of individuals to buy Bitcoin to save will be matched by the intention of others not to spend it. For example, I do not plan to sell some Bitcoin during the next 10 years, and therefore you will find that many will sell about 1% to 50% in the next two years in exchange for the thousands who will buy, and vice versa.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Bananington on September 23, 2023, 11:33:38 AM
Am sure Satoshi didn't quite think BTC would turn out to an investment option for people as opposed to the idea in mind before its creation.
One thing I have always loved about new innovations is that people get to utilize it in various scenerio to ascertain which best the innovation serves.
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration and if Satoshi had thought about all the possibility of having BTC, perhaps imthe idea would have failed.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: pooya87 on September 23, 2023, 12:16:57 PM
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration
These two ideas are not contradictory though. As a matter of fact, in order for bitcoin to be money it has to be store of value as I pointed out earlier. This means bitcoin has to be an investment too if it wants to be money.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Blitzboy on September 23, 2023, 12:45:09 PM
Change is inevitable. The truth is this. But to say Satoshi knew Bitcoin's volatility? Quite the stretch. Satoshi wanted a peer-to-peer system for transactions, not speculation. Yet here we are, treating Bitcoin more like a casino chip than a medium of exchange. Satoshi designed a method to defy central banks and intermediaries. Did he expect avarice and speculation to overshadow his creation's purpose? Perhaps he underestimated people's need for rapid cash. Satoshi may have anticipated some currency appreciation, but to say he anticipated this amount of frenzied speculation is conspiratorial. Satoshi would have noticed Bitcoin's usage alter. Whether he accepts is unknown


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Mpamaegbu on September 23, 2023, 01:44:12 PM
Instead of focusing on Bitcoin use cases, we are more interested in making money from them.
It's not that we don't concentrate on the use cases of Bitcoin too, it's just that what seems to be driving its value and price isn't its usecases. It's its speculative part – the asset part of Bitcoin. People will naturally go where the honey (money) is and that's why people see or evaluate Bitcoin as something they can invest in and get a nice ROI.

So Satoshi knew what he was doing and i am not sure he created bitcoin for only peer to peer purposes only despite he mission was to make payment system easily as possible but he also knew that in time to come people could finds more valuable aspect of bitcoin.
Yes, he knew what he was doing while he was creating it but didn't know to what extent that creation of his would go. Again, basically, Satoshi created Bitcoin for P2P; not for asset speculation which Bitcoin has more become of. We can argue this for all we want but that's what it's now.

~
The real question is: what difference would that have made if he knew that? Could he have designed bitcoin in a different way to prevent volatility? The answer is no, it would not have made any difference and the design would have been the same. So knowing or not knowing it is not important.
I think it will have made a difference if Satoshi knew Bitcoin would take this turn and drawn this level of unbelievable attention. I'm sure he would've tweaked the supply to more than what it's, among other things.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: aoluain on September 23, 2023, 02:47:46 PM
Ah Satoshi was smarter than the average bear but when it comes to predicting the future
its difficult, I think Satoshi did what he could to make sure Bitcoin was set on the course he
envisioned.

Given the fact that Bitcoin is deflationary and decentralised with superior security
it is kind of predictable that it would be volatile.

Knowing if it would be adopted further into the future after he left the space is another thing.

I think Satoshi was satisfied by the end of 2010 that enough people were involved and
active to carry it into the future. I think while being able to create a useable product in Bitcoin,
bring it into the public domain and nurture it for a year at that stage confidence was high
that it could be left to grow into the future.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: bittraffic on September 23, 2023, 03:12:46 PM

The timing of the BTC launch means he knows how the money works and knows economics. I think he already sees the future of what could happen to BTC and to the fiat system that's crumbling.

So he knows BTC will have a higher value which means people will also be investing and selling. And he designed BTC to have halving where there will be scarcity in the long run. He may even know there will be a flood of altcoins because blockchain was released as opensource.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: kryptqnick on September 23, 2023, 03:36:21 PM
As quotes of Satoshi's texts in this thread show, this person was clearly aware of the basic economics, and did talk about assets, so I suppose it's reasonable to say that Satoshi possibly considered that Bitcoin might become a form of investment. But what Satoshi wanted to give people and successfully gave was an alternative to fiat and banks, a form of money that's truly independent of any authorities, can be used without intermediaries, and is made by people for the people. Whether it would become volatile, be used for trading or investing was kind of beyond the point.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: PX-Z on September 23, 2023, 10:40:45 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.
Everything fluctuates, and he did expect something like it. The thing could people from the past that could never imagine even Satoshi is bitcoin having thousands of dollars of value, that it become more in investment type than his original way and thoughts as its's a p2p.
That even in a small change of its value everything is affected.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Smartvirus on September 23, 2023, 11:28:51 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
To infer into what Satoshi Nakamoto is thinking or could have thought at the genesis age of bitcoin would be to ask the shapeless or formless figure.
You’ve already said it yourself, Satoshi Nakamoto had a long insight and the bitcoin innovation and all that is happening now could have been considered. I mean, economics and statistics has been around and having to create a limited 21million bitcoin for a world population without putting a price mark on it,,,
Satoshi Nakamoto has got to understand that the innovation would choose the way it would go until it attains some worth price that could serve a world population and even then, the volatile nature, the fluctuation in its price would not be totally vanquished.

Investors might do as they please but, this isn’t any disappointment and people are out there using bitcoin as they please.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: mk4 on September 24, 2023, 03:16:07 AM
Change is inevitable. The truth is this. But to say Satoshi knew Bitcoin's volatility? Quite the stretch. Satoshi wanted a peer-to-peer system for transactions, not speculation. Yet here we are, treating Bitcoin more like a casino chip than a medium of exchange. Satoshi designed a method to defy central banks and intermediaries. Did he expect avarice and speculation to overshadow his creation's purpose? Perhaps he underestimated people's need for rapid cash. Satoshi may have anticipated some currency appreciation, but to say he anticipated this amount of frenzied speculation is conspiratorial. Satoshi would have noticed Bitcoin's usage alter. Whether he accepts is unknown

If Satoshi was smart enough — in which I totally assume that he is for obvious reasons, then he for sure knows that for bitcoin to reach from virtually worth nothing to what it's worth today, it's going to require a lot of volatility and speculation. There's really no other way around it. An asset can't go from $0 to what its worth today in a straight line.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: kingvirtus09 on September 24, 2023, 03:45:24 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

To begin with, no one knows for certain whether Satoshi Nakamoto is a genuine person or if that moniker was made up by someone. Back to your question: He may not have expected it, but he stated that Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital cash system.

What makes you think he said that? The reason for this is that he regards Bitcoin as primarily a mode of payment rather than an investment asset. In the whitepaper, he also mentioned that Bitcoin has a scarcity quality that makes it more appealing as an investment asset. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is still evolving,


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: YUriy1991 on September 24, 2023, 04:05:22 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.
Everything fluctuates, and he did expect something like it. The thing could people from the past that could never imagine even Satoshi is bitcoin having thousands of dollars of value, that it become more in investment type than his original way and thoughts as its's a p2p.
That even in a small change of its value everything is affected.

Until now, Bitcoin trading is very speculative and volatile and therefore there is a lot of Bitcoin price volatility in the market so people are still afraid to get involved in trading for several classic reasons including the continued decline and other problems.

I think it's simple, using Bitcoin it's easy to buy and sell once you have a wallet you trust and all we need is to use different trading strategies and we'll make a profit once all this market madness is over.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Litzki1990 on September 24, 2023, 04:16:29 AM
Satoshi created Bitcoin with a lot of potential and he believed that his coin would be very popular in the world but he probably did not imagine it to be so popular. Some countries are accepting Bitcoin as their legal tender and many people are now using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Every year the popularity of Bitcoin is increasing as compared to every year and the number of Bitcoin users is also increasing steadily. People are now finding it safer to store their money through Bitcoin instead of keeping it in the bank. Satoshi might be more than happy to see a coin he created become so successful.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: yhiaali3 on September 24, 2023, 04:29:44 AM
Such a possibility may have crossed Satoshi's mind, but even if it were true, that would not have prevented him from moving forward with his life's project.

Since he was certain of the success of the project, this thought most likely crossed his mind, but perhaps he thought that after a long time people would realize the reality of Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer payment method and start using Bitcoin in the right way.

In any case, if Satoshi were still alive now, he would not be happy with these price fluctuations and the deviation from Bitcoin’s path to a means of investment and speculation, but at least he would be happy because of the great popularity of Bitcoin and also that Bitcoin has changed the lives of many people for the better.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: mindrust on September 24, 2023, 04:34:12 AM
Satoshi predicted all of this probably. What happened to bitcoin isn’t a surprise. When there is money to be made, it will be made, till it can’t be made. People saw a promising project with a small market cap (that’s btc) and hoarded it just like hoarding a penny stock with a promising future. People didn’t do anything wrong since they made lots of money doing it. On the other hand there are lots of people that use bitcoin to sell and buy stuff too. Not everybody is an investor or a trader. One can use bitcoin without having to invest in it. All you need is a btc wallet.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Hamza2424 on September 24, 2023, 04:37:18 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

A lot of theories and scenarios can be imagined, some extraordinary fantasy movie lovers create more supential scenes by asking the questions over and over again. The point to be noted is that Stoshi was an Unknown entity and he will be, there are a lot of fakes to his we cant trust because he didn't reveal himself to own the credits so why now?

Yet, some concerns may naturally arise. One might speculate that if Satoshi had revealed his identity, the trajectory of Bitcoin might have diverged significantly. It's possible that Bitcoin could have been dismissed as another Ponzi scheme, attributed to Satoshi, and so forth. We can ponder these hypothetical scenarios endlessly, but in truth, it doesn't truly matter, my friend.

The question to ask is this: Are you content with Bitcoin as it stands today? If the answer is yes, then cease your "What If?" inquiries. Why dwell on the past, and how it could have unfolded differently?


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Solosanz on September 24, 2023, 05:05:51 AM
Satoshi said this in 2010.
I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

So he kind of predicted what would be the outcome of Bitcoin if people accepted it but he may not expected that more people would be accumulating Bitcoins for investment purposes rather than using to for making payments and cutting the centralized entity as the middlemen. But Bitcoin is becoming inevitable year by year so this is good and going in the way that he would have expected.
Despite people are accumulating Bitcoin for investment purpose, but currently Bitcoin's trading volume 24 hours is $6,678,602,678, it's really big.

To be more fair, Satoshi only mention about the volume, not the price.

If you still think Bitcoin must be used as a currency because you read in Bitcoin's whitepaper, Satoshi even have thought Bitcoin can be used as a commodity.

"Bitcoin [is] more like a collectible or commodity.” - Satoshi


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on September 24, 2023, 01:03:39 PM
Satoshi may have designed Bitcoin for the purpose of P2P transactions—the ability of individuals who accept it to be in total control of their finances rather than having it in the hands of financial experts (a third party). He might not have seen Bitcoin become very volatile like it is now, but I think it still matters that the technology has not failed and many people are still using it for P2P transactions. I keep making payments with Bitcoin most of the time for business transactions and some personal needs, as do a lot of other people in different countries. So, it's not really as if everyone is just investing in Bitcoin for profit; there are still people using it for business.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: posi on September 25, 2023, 10:37:48 AM
So, it's not really as if everyone is just investing in Bitcoin for profit; there are still people using it for business.

That's right, although most people use bitcoin as an investment vehicle to make profits, there are still a few people who still only consider bitcoin as a currency, a payment method. But as I see it, even investors like us can use bitcoin as a payment method. That's the versatility that bitcoin brings to us, why don't we take advantage of that? I think it doesn't matter what bitcoin is, the point is that as long as it retains its decentralized nature, everyone can use it according to their purposes. Don't be too rigid and just use it as a currency or an investment.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: so98nn on September 25, 2023, 12:12:52 PM
This is definitely tricky shot for Satoshi and he took it decade ago and as we can see either way it is success for him. The entire worlds government now consider bitcoin whenever there are financial budget getting launched. They have to plot an entire guidelines for bitcoin usage and thus making it one of the prime form of instrument. Now we may discuss pages and pages about whether Bitcoin is an asset, currency or just way to hold and profit but it has proved itself to be growing market. No wonder we have seen bitcoin going all the way up to 60k in the past. That’s crazy denomination for something that was created just yesterday! I think if Satoshi is out there then they already found out the answer about their creation and happy about it.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: MFahad on September 25, 2023, 07:24:28 PM
he knew the fact because if he created something then surely he will have knowledge about it therefore he knew about its volatile nature but that time it was not uses as an investment purpose only but now people are more focused on bitcoin with the aim of investment.

Now because of this volatility people prefer bitcoin as both conditions are full of advantages for bitcoin investors. Bitcoin was originated as a currency but your will be familiar that now a days people use bitcoin more as an investment method in contrast as a currency.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: oktana on September 25, 2023, 11:22:44 PM
What a coincidence I was thinking of this! In my opinion, I don't think he knew or would guess all that is happening right now. Of course, he believed in himself and what he built (after all that's all that kept him going), however, looking at where Bitcoin started and comparing it to where it is, and even looking at how many other cryptocurrencies have followed after Bitcoin, it'll take only a prophet of God to have known. I bet that he is amazed by the growth, just as everyone he pitched the idea to, and even those who invested at the time.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Sexylizzy2813 on September 26, 2023, 12:22:50 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

You just said it that Satoshi is someone who has made this system to be alive till this very moment and I also believe he doesn't care if you decide to invest in Bitcoin or selling or maybe buying it, he doesn't care.
Is like he already knows how it works and the way we use it doesn't concern him a bit so is like he said go and make use of your Bitcoin, spread the news and teach those who doesn't have any idea of Bitcoin, he's one hell of a creator.
Since he's the creator of Bitcoin he knows the in and out of it and he also knows  that people are going to make billions out of it and he doesn't need to worry.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: taufik123 on September 26, 2023, 01:05:52 AM
Was it possible beyond Satohsi's expectations that Bitcoin could grow this far?
Bitcoin was created to eliminate the authority that is sometimes always arbitrary in the financial rules that are made.
With the creation of decentralized Bitcoin, there will be no more parties when regulating anyone's finances.

Price fluctuations are the center of everyone's attention, used to make investments and provide profits.
this has been fully predicted by Satoshi.

related to whether this is in accordance with the original purpose of Bitcoin in creation, people are starting to feel how the impact of Bitcoin and its technology today.
Some countries are starting to adopt and trading is just one of the benefits that can be obtained with bitcoin.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: philipma1957 on September 26, 2023, 01:28:20 AM
Am sure Satoshi didn't quite think BTC would turn out to an investment option for people as opposed to the idea in mind before its creation.
One thing I have always loved about new innovations is that people get to utilize it in various scenerio to ascertain which best the innovation serves.
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration and if Satoshi had thought about all the possibility of having BTC, perhaps imthe idea would have failed.

I disagree I think it was for speculative and not for p2p.

I think if it was p2p money system it would not run out of rewards as he designed it.

Running out of mining rewards creates an upwards price pressure.

 A Flat reward with constant number would have made more sense for p2p. Money 💵 transfer.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: mamesso on September 26, 2023, 03:03:50 AM
Satoshi already thought this would happen before he introduced Bitcoin to the public. Investors' interest in the various conveniences and advantages of Bitcoin which are considered to be able to increase the amount of income from investments has made Bitcoin increasingly grow and become popular with people around the world.
Now what happens? Bitcoin transaction volumes are getting bigger and new investors continue to arrive wanting to collect Bitcoin as a store of value and can also be used as an investment asset. Satoshi never expected that Bitcoin would become the most popular asset among many people from various groups. The increasing volume of Bitcoin transactions makes Bitcoin's potential even greater for the future.



Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Ale88 on September 26, 2023, 03:10:14 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
Of course he knew it. He pretty much took in consideration every possibility since the beginning, and since he was so smart, he knew that people are greedy so many would take advantage of bitcoin, especially at first, but there is no alternative, that's how it works, there always is a certain time needed to adjust things. Everything that has a value will be traded, bitcoin is no exception.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: ChiBitCTy on September 26, 2023, 02:52:13 PM
I think Satoshi absolutely knew that eventually if bitcoin “hit it big” that eventually people would start to trade bitcoin as an asset just like traders trade every single type of fiat currency as an asset.

I think Satoshi was/is Nick Szabo, who’s an economist and someone whom would absolutely know that if bitcoin became a big deal, that it would eventually be traded.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Dunamisx on September 26, 2023, 03:08:09 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

You just said it that Satoshi is someone who has made this system to be alive till this very moment and I also believe he doesn't care if you decide to invest in Bitcoin or selling or maybe buying it, he doesn't care.
Is like he already knows how it works and the way we use it doesn't concern him a bit so is like he said go and make use of your Bitcoin, spread the news and teach those who doesn't have any idea of Bitcoin, he's one hell of a creator.
Since he's the creator of Bitcoin he knows the in and out of it and he also knows  that people are going to make billions out of it and he doesn't need to worry.

Satoshi Nakamoto is someone that believes in possibilities, he knew that if he created an alternative digital currency to fiat, people will adopt it and not sure of how soon will the success emerge, despite these, it's more of a surprise still yet that bitcoin has become this big and widely adopted across the universe, which i believe that he never expect this that soon, then also, the people have seing more insight in the opportunities that comes in with bitcoin adoption which can serve them as a store of value, profitable asset, investment currency and many more benefits to get with bitcoin adoption.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: robelneo on September 26, 2023, 03:47:44 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Inventor usually has a vision but that doesn't mean that the vision will match the reality. There could be many things which Satoshi probably have never thought about. For example the block size. If he had envisioned that Bitcoin's transaction volume will be so huge, he would made it in a different way to accomodate more space.

So it doesn't matter what Satoshi had envisioned. What matters is the free market which decides the next course of action. Not a government or cash rich corporation decides that for us!

I agree, Satoshi overlooked that mining will be ASIC-based in the future and there will be mining pools if Satoshi had known that there would be massive adoption he could have increased the number of Bitcoins to be mine

Quote
“I wanted to pick something that would make prices similar to existing currencies, but without knowing the future, that’s very hard. I ended up picking something in the middle,” Nakamoto said.

If you're a creator you will try to be as realistic as possible based on present examples, there's so much speculation about the 21 million supply and how Satoshi perceives the future of Bitcoin's volatility like what is happening now, the Whitepaper dwells on alternative, not on the investment side and making a profit that something that the creator did not dwell on.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: mk4 on September 27, 2023, 05:46:08 AM
however, looking at where Bitcoin started and comparing it to where it is, and even looking at how many other cryptocurrencies have followed after Bitcoin, it'll take only a prophet of God to have known.

I don't think so. If Satoshi thought that Bitcoin will end up being 'something', it's almost guaranteed to expect that other cryptocurrencies would arise. Simply due to the fact that Bitcoin is totally open-source hence forkable, and simply due to the fact that the idea of a cryptocurrency could have LOTS of iterations and other use-cases.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Gallar on September 27, 2023, 08:09:33 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
I think Satoshi was aware of it from the start. Because remembering that everyone who wants to have bitcoin, can get it by buying it. Given this fact, the price of bitcoin will automatically change as a result of its purchase. So most likely, Satoshi already knew this since Bitcoin was first launched.

Apart from that, many people end up using bitcoin as an investment asset and trading asset (turned into income). I think this must have been predicted by Satoshi too. Because after all, it was Satoshi who created bitcoin and certainly Satoshi was the one who knew best the potential that bitcoin had. So I'm sure Satoshi already predicted it, that Bitcoin would become a valuable and profitable asset for bitcoin investors and traders. Although basically Satoshi's goal in creating bitcoin was to create a currency that was decentralized and could be used as a transaction tool. However, it cannot be denied that the potential that exists in Bitcoin can make many people gain profits and make many people change their lives for the better. So I think Satoshi will still be happy with this fact.

And although currently bitcoin is used by the majority of users, it is only for investment assets and trading assets. But the fact is that there are already those who use bitcoin as a transaction tool, for example in the country of El Salvador. So even though currently Satoshi's goals have not actually been fulfilled for the majority. But the fact remains that all this is bound to lead to mass adoption of bitcoin.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: ChicksX on September 27, 2023, 08:08:59 PM
Am sure Satoshi didn't quite think BTC would turn out to an investment option for people as opposed to the idea in mind before its creation.
One thing I have always loved about new innovations is that people get to utilize it in various scenerio to ascertain which best the innovation serves.
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration and if Satoshi had thought about all the possibility of having BTC, perhaps imthe idea would have failed.

I disagree I think it was for speculative and not for p2p.

I think if it was p2p money system it would not run out of rewards as he designed it.

Running out of mining rewards creates an upwards price pressure.

 A Flat reward with constant number would have made more sense for p2p. Money 💵 transfer.

Transaction fees are part of the block reward though. Eventually the block reward will be entirely comprised of this mining fee.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Obari on September 27, 2023, 08:18:58 PM
do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Well I don't think it never occured to him because i think he already knew that the higher the acceptance, the higher the buying power and as such, it might make it volatile.
On the second thought, what if Satoshi never intended any other plans for Bitcoin but rather using it simply as a decentralized digital currency because that was what the white paper makes it look like typically.
I also think one of the things that has made Bitcoin gained more recognition is the fact that is used as an investment option rather than just a payment option and since people have more chances of making profits off just holding.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Y3shot on September 27, 2023, 08:40:40 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
I think Satoshi knew that bitcoin will be this relevant and so big that is why he went ahead with the creation of bitcoin , if he had no vision about bitcoin I don't think their will be vision.  The bitcoin we have today is as a result of vision satoshi had, I don't think Satoshi created bitcoin with mindset of try your luck. If bitcoin was created based on trials it won't be this valuable currency,  everything ever done great was as a result of good planning.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: lalabotax on September 27, 2023, 08:51:53 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
From what quoted by @jrrsparkles and @albert0bsd, it means that Satoshi knew it and understood it.
As the creator of Bitcoin, of course he has predicted what will happen to the development of Bitcoin in the future. Meanwhile, basically, he himself also stated about the possible prices and volume of trade, about supply and demand, and I'm sure also about other things, especially as a currency. But what he wasn't sure about was the exact time. And maybe it's for that reason that Satoshi also doesn't want to show who he is, because maybe it would be very dangerous for him or them when Bitcoin becomes this big and there are some parties in the world who don't like that.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: DudeAtWork420 on September 27, 2023, 09:04:04 PM
Satoshi knew that bitcoin would get to this point and he took his time to develop and build the bitcoin master plan. He envisioned it far beyond just using it as a means of digital payment he also knew it would be a good store of value which people would want to hold onto to measure the value of their wealth. For bitcoin to have gained this popularity people saw it just more than a means payment but just as satoshi has envisioned.   There it turned out to be a store of value which made it more popular and volatile.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: BitDane on September 27, 2023, 09:07:02 PM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Satoshi never focused on the price of Bitcoin, remember he is the creator of Bitcoin and his major task is to develop it and not indulge himself on the price speculation of Bitcoin.  Aside from that during his stay and disappearance, Bitcoin is just starting to get traded in the market.

As far as I know this is one of the few replies of Satoshi that involves the Bitcoin transaction volume and shows how open minded Satoshi is:

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.  I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He does not state any price but the volume of transaction.  But I am quite sure he knows that Bitcoin might have a chance to be highly volatile taken from the quoted reply on how open ended his reply is about the future volume of transaction of BTC.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: tread93 on September 27, 2023, 09:55:29 PM
Well, he said he was pretty certain that in a few decades it would either have a lot of volume or none. I'd say that he really gave it a 50-50 haha. Of course he for sure had much more faith in it being a future success than that.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Captain Corporate on September 27, 2023, 09:58:35 PM
I think it was obvious from the start. The main core of it has the "people buy it from each other" so its not really shocking to see it volatile, specially when you consider at the start it worth so little, so that means we are going to see it jumping up and down so much. I think its quite important to realize that we are going to end up with this type of thing. Not because we actually do it, but because it was obvious from the get go that it worked this way so it shouldn't be really a shocker. I understand he may not have guessed the price reaching these highs, that part is different, but volatility he definitely assumed without a doubt, everyone knew it would be volatile. I think we just didn't know it would go this high.


Title: Re: Could Satoshi have known?
Post by: Blitzboy on September 28, 2023, 05:45:53 AM
Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?
I think Satoshi was aware of it from the start. Because remembering that everyone who wants to have bitcoin, can get it by buying it. Given this fact, the price of bitcoin will automatically change as a result of its purchase. So most likely, Satoshi already knew this since Bitcoin was first launched.

Apart from that, many people end up using bitcoin as an investment asset and trading asset (turned into income). I think this must have been predicted by Satoshi too. Because after all, it was Satoshi who created bitcoin and certainly Satoshi was the one who knew best the potential that bitcoin had. So I'm sure Satoshi already predicted it, that Bitcoin would become a valuable and profitable asset for bitcoin investors and traders. Although basically Satoshi's goal in creating bitcoin was to create a currency that was decentralized and could be used as a transaction tool. However, it cannot be denied that the potential that exists in Bitcoin can make many people gain profits and make many people change their lives for the better. So I think Satoshi will still be happy with this fact.

And although currently bitcoin is used by the majority of users, it is only for investment assets and trading assets. But the fact is that there are already those who use bitcoin as a transaction tool, for example in the country of El Salvador. So even though currently Satoshi's goals have not actually been fulfilled for the majority. But the fact remains that all this is bound to lead to mass adoption of bitcoin.
We humans often end up using tools in ways we never originally imagined. Take the internet; its creators probably didnt envision us streaming movies or creating memes on it, did they? But here we are

Satoshi might've intended Bitcoin for p2p decentralized transactions, but we have turned it into digital gold. We buy, we sell, and we profit. Now, Im no seer, but the idea that Satoshi foresaw all the financial acrobatics we perform with Bitcoin is quite amusing, if not unrealistic

El Salvador is pioneering the transactional use of Bitcoin, which does follow Satoshi's dream. The potential for mass adoption? Its there, and we might just be on the brink of it. So lets watch, learn, and adapt, and who knows? Maybe we can be a part of the next big shift in how we perceive currency and value