Bitcoin Forum

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https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1705776976089256341?t=PtzaGiRaDcbdjzwFDYF3Bg&s=19

There is data from WhaleWire regarding the surge in corporate bankruptcy filings which reached the same level as past economic crises such as the Great Recession in 2008 and the pandemic in 2020. This certainly raises concerns for the world economy.

And periods like this historically occur before significant stock market crashes. Will this affect the price of BTC too. If the entire market falls, does it rule out the possibility that there will be a sell off too? and of course BTC will also be affected?

Share your opinion

When I registered on the forum the general belief was that a crisis would favour bitcoin but if we see that in March 2020 it went down like all financial assets and that the inflation crisis and rate hikes by central banks have not been good for it either, I doubt that if we enter a crisis like the one in 2008 the price will react well.

What I am pretty sure of, however, is that if that happens the central banks will change their policy, print again as if there is no tomorrow and that will be good for the price of bitcoin, the post-crisis, where much of that printed money will flow into bitcoin.

This like somewhat trickled my brain because of the possibility of another downfall because of the panic or something. I'm afraid that it could be a different thing or maybe be faster but it's not something that we can really predict unless it happened already. It's always going to be that way.

Since it's about the bankruptcy filings, maybe it's a sign that those startups that started in 2020 could have completely gone bankrupt and not done anymore about it. A lot of ideas have floated and gone so it could be those things as well.

I'm pretty worried about BTC now, maybe it's time to cash out? Lol.

Yeah it’s not looking good. Pretty soon the employment data will show this. Many of these are most likely due to the high interest environment.

People got into debt when it was cheap and when it started to rise, they felt the pain and couldn’t keep up. It’s going to be worse since it looks like there will be another hike before the end of the year. And it will get worse if layoffs start to happen.

cash out at the current BTC price? You are sure? 🤣 I'm sure you have doubts too 😅


Many young startups cannot survive due to Covid and this is made worse by the still bad economic situation. Even if this happens sooner, I'm sure there is still one place to survive, Gold or Bitcoin, but I doubt stocks.


This will have a negative value if worse things happen when the data is released. This shows that the crisis caused by Covid is still having an impact and has not been handled properly. Printing money is not a solution but this will continue to be done as a temporary solution without realizing that this will continue to make the situation worse.

Well, if we apply technical analysis to the chart then we can say we are approaching a significant resistance level.  We may hope the resistance would not be broken and the amount of filings will bounce back. And for the time being, the US economy is doing pretty well. Therefore, if the number of filings don't go further, we may say that we are close to the bottom of the downtrend and within the next year we should see a reversal.
 

WHAT?!

Bankruptcies peaks are at market bottom. The market is always pricing in the future. When things get bad in a company, insiders are the first to sell, dragging prices down. A company's bankruptcy usually occurs at the bottom, when you can't finance yourself by issuing new shares and only retail people are left with the shares, without any knowledge of what's going on. Look at your chart. "2008 great recession" spike is located in 2009 while market dump started in 2007. In 2009 we hit the bottom and started to recover. Same in "2020 covid pandemic crisis". Your chart shows the end of 2020 and the market bottomed in March 2020, i.e. half a year earlier. This chart is an indicator of the bottom and not something that should cause concern.

In general, this means that we are at the bottom of any market, if we look at the history of the picture, which shows that if the graph in the picture starts to decline, it means that the market has started to recover and improve. Maybe for people who don't really understand these graphs like me, they will panic a little, after hearing your explanation, maybe this worry will start to subside.

Bitcoin price is determined by the law of demand and supply. If the world economy is in turmoil people might not have money to buy Bitcoin and other might have to dump the coin which means the price will reduce. And the public will prefer to invest in more stable commodities. Unfortunately, Bitcoin is now connected to the global economic system, and financial issues like the performance of stocks and interest rates (especially in the US) affect the price. If the economy of the world crashes the Bitcoin ecosystem will be heavily affected.

It all depends on your buying price and the plan you have for your holdings. Selling now is not an option because it would cause a big loss to some people. I have confidence that regardless of how the price falls, Bitcoin will still rise. it will only take some time and hodlers should have patience.

It's not because Covid anymore, but Russian invasion to Ukraine which still not cleared yet. This make the fuel and foods price increase due to shortage, the best solution is Russian need to back and end this invasion. If it's still continue, we will face more hard time because inflation keep rising.

I think Covid news is already gone, although the infection is still possible.

I think your answer is very relevant regarding BTC price movements in the world economy. What I feel is that any important US data releases, in particular, have a volatility impact that can cause BTC price movements.


Ah yes, I forgot about the Russia vs Ukraine war. It's true that oil prices in my country have just risen and food has also risen. I also trade vegetables and fruit at the traditional market near where I live and it is very difficult to make a profit these days.

If the war continues and breaks out in a big way, I don't know what the fate of stocks and crypto, especially Bitcoin, will be like. But I hope this will be over soon because many will suffer.

Bitcoin is nolonger tethered to such economic fundamentals. It's currently tethered to its own ideals.
People who had influence over Bitcoin in the past were the wrong kind of people who heavily depended on the centralized financial system to influence it.  When something unpleasant happened to the financial system it affected Bitcoin negatively. Things has changed for good as Bitcoin was disconnected from the bad system and connected back to its true purpose which is what will determine how well it does in the future.

A failing centralized financial system won't affect Bitcoin negatively. It's expected that people who depend on the system will move over to Bitcoin as the system fails gradually.
 

I don't think there will be a stock market crash anymore at the moment, generally speaking the effect of economic crisis, recession and inflation is already here as we speak, nations struggling economically to manage the situation, so i believe we are at the breaking point of coming out of this ugly situation globally.

So the entire market will not fall, at the heat of COVID-19 the entire market didn't fall, how much more now that nations and global economy is trying to stabilise.
Bitcoin has stood the test of time, all this inductions will not stop the value and rise of bitcoin in market.

It's true that when we look back to the previous economical crisis we had with the natural pandemic, we can see how bad the entire world economy had been affected, many organizations and businesses have recovered from this while a large number of some others are yet to find their bearing to a unified direction after this, then the question rises that whom to blame, naturally things occur and they became inevitable for us to bear their consequences as we've seen with the pandemic, but what are the way forward for us through this, what plan do we keep to serve an a second choice for a survival, all eggs must not be in a basket.

I held the similar views about Bitcoin that its price will surge during the economic crisis, when I first ventured into the world of Bitcoin investment back in 2017. However, during the course of my journey, I learned that Bitcoin has very strong correlation with stock market and both markets are indeed influenced by CPI data or interest rate announcements. This correlation suggests that general public tends to sell various assets in their possession, including Bitcoins, during the period of economic crisis to fulfill their basic needs.

Regrading surge in bankruptcy filing, it is very disturbing development. I believe this issue may find some solution when FED starts reducing the interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

Isn't it a common practice to sell assets during an economic crisis? It is true that the stock market and bitcoin have a strong correlation, and they both react to certain economic factors. There are people who think if they invest in the stock market, they won't get their money back, and there are people with the same mindset towards bitcoin as well.

Missmanagement and corruption are the reasons behind this bankruptcy, and there are some internal bad actors as well.

I don't think this bankruptcy and troubled economic situation will have that kind of effect on bitcoin price at least not now that most people have DCA in btc in expectation of btc price surge after halving next year. Moreover, in 2020 COVID-19 didn't bring the price of bitcoin. In fact bitcoin became safe heaven for investors who feared their fiat would be worthless as inflation was gradually increasing because economies got shot down leading to increase in prices of goods. So I don't think bankruptcy will disrupt the price increase of bitcoin because investors would like to leverage fiat they have on btc and that should cause more appreciation of price of btc.

It will likely just be a quick decline for BTC and then pump up again going to the bull market. I would like to believe FED will start distributing stimulus packages again but this time they are turning the cash into digital currencies and this is where we can see more users are going to buy BTC as well. BTC will rise above all this turmoil and the government may declare it a legal tender.

While BTC goes up in value, the USD also will drop its purchasing power. Meaning BTC may have $100K in price but the purchasing power may also be suppressed because of USD value.

I do agree with you that the govt will try to use CBDC to distribute this type of package but I don't think they will declare BTC as a legal tender. I think it's the opposite that they will go for hard regulation or not-so-reasonable taxation.

The fall of PPP is constant and there is nothing we can do about it. The more new paper cash comes into circulation the more it will come down. This is another reason the rally of BTC looks so fast and dramatic.

Economic Meltdown affect businesses, human live, and corporations because at that economic downturn period, people are not doing business so everything is just stagnant. livelihood very costly. And this is what happened in the year 2020 because there was restriction of human movement across the world so businesses were stopped. And with that bitcoin was affect badly, and the price was down. It was after when the curfew was lifted in the world from the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 that businesses returned to normalcy and bitcoin also bounced back in 2021.

World economic recession affect all sphere of the economic activities in the world. There is no two ways about it whenever there is crisis, bitcoin surge in the bad economy.

If we take a look at what has happened when a government is in power and the economy begins to go out of control, what we will see is that they will begin to restrict the freedoms of their people, like only allowing to withdraw a small amount of money out of your savings account, ban the use of foreign currencies, confiscations, banning gold, price controls and many other similar measures, then it is clear to me that in that scenario bitcoin will be either banned or regulated as much as possible, and there is almost no chance at all that it would be declared to be legal tender.

I won't say there isn't any chance that bitcoin will be declared a legal tender, but the chance is very low. USA officials tend to take an anti-crypto policy, but due to pressure, they declare bitcoin a commodity. I think the SEC will try hard regulation, and the government will impose high taxes to discourage people from using bitcoin. They will try to spread negativity about bitcoin to promote CBDC as better than bitcoin.

To be fair this could still be the ripple effect on what we had so far and I do not think that it will change anytime soon. I think its quite clear that we are going to end up with something that will matter more than people realizes, and that is why we should be trying to do something that will change a lot on the long term. I get that it may not be all that great, but we could still make it work with what we are going to get. Just because we have been through something hard, doesn't mean we should lay our weapons, just keep trying to get better and try to avoid all this situation. I am not personally doing great neither, but that doesn't mean that I will stop trying to do better.

I'm not sure that's why I said maybe lol. ;D. I don't want to exchange my BTC TBH but I want to take advantage of the price IF it goes down or something.

You do remember that in COVID, nothing survived right? Everything went down so much that nothing really survived and everybody cashed out. What would be the difference now if it continues with this economy?

The concern is valid and we're seeing the domino effect of it through many layoffs from various companies, and note, these are the huge companies that employes thousands of employees.

While we can say that the BTC market is inversely proportional. There are times that it is directly proportional from it. The point here is that, we'll never know that but if we'll look at the basics of Bitcoin, we can be of the same opinion that it's also getting some touch of the global markets and whatever happens to it and then will eventually locks out from the tie it's getting from it.

At least I personally have started withdrawing the funds I have in shares. I withdrew it because there was also a fairly large withdrawal last week. Even the Stock Marketcap in the US lost around 1 trillion dollars last week. So we should be able to see the big picture of where the withdrawn funds are going. And one of them is expected to also include Bitcoin.

Maybe Bitcoin could experience a final downturn before a true bullish halving occurs. But usually before a big decline, prices tend to increase first. Maybe this is just my speculation. And yeah, let's just call it bullshit because it is bullshit. But I feel that at the end of this year and at the beginning of this year there will be a little bullish phase for bitcoin. Because I believe that funds withdrawn from the stock market will probably not go into Gold very much. The development of the times and shifts in thinking may cause more funds to enter Bitcoin. Because indirectly we can see that many people consider Bitcoin to be a fairly safe asset storage. If it's a store of value then Gold is superior. But if storage is secure then Bitcoin I think is safer. But I don't know, nowadays sometimes the games on the market are much wilder than in previous years. Not only in crypto but also in stocks.

This scheme is only to digitize USD or currency under the pretext of cryptography that BTC has been raising so far. For people who know very well about crypto, they will think twice about CBDC later. Because CBDC is not the intention or purpose of establishing blockchain and Bitcoin, CBDC is purely a ploy for the government or authorities to continue to monopolize the digital USD.


And I almost forgot that this crisis is also exacerbated by increasing tensions between Russia and Nato. Which causes increases in oil and food prices. If it continues, I am sure from the graph above that it will still be able to rise.


Hopefully this incident will end soon and return to normal. There is already too much FUD floating around, things are not always bad and not always good because the wheels will continue to turn and turn.

I am not sure of the sources on which @WhaleWire based its report, but let us not forget that we are in the year preceding the election year, and all the news needs to read it several times, and I remember that every year such reports come that say that what is coming is worse and that we will face a crisis like what happened in the year 2008.
What happened in 2008 will not be repeated easily or in a way that everyone will be able to know, but data from some official links is up for discussion.


https://www.uscourts.gov/statistics-reports/analysis-reports/bankruptcy-filings-statistics



Refer to the official data link above and you will find that the report is misleading.

The Bitcoin price movements are sometimes the same as the shares and stock, but not always. Several years ago, the Bitcoin price turned around and created a candle opposite with stock. But sometimes both create the same direction. With the condition, we don't have to panic and fear about the situation, as we know even the 2020 condition is bad, but the bitcoin price creates a new ATH after that. If this year has the same situation, we just be patient and hold it after going back like 2021.

Selling assets during an economic crisis can be common practice, but it largely depends on an individual's financial situation, risk tolerance and investment goals. Bitcoin and stocks are two different asset classes and may react differently to economic crisis. How Bitcoin reacts to sever economic crisis, remains uncertain, as since its introduction in 2009, it has not experienced a serious economic meltdown.

It is true that mismanagement, corruption and internal bad actors can be behind bankruptcy of any company, these issues often come to the forefront when interest rates are higher and broader economic environment is unfavorable.

When trading Bitcoin, there is still a certain level of awareness among the masses that is required So in my opinion Keep Buying and Selling at the right price to Make Profits. I personally don't really care about issues like that which only contribute to making us more confused and creating our own fears.

I don't think it's about an established monopoly on USD because it already has that one. USD-pegged stable currencies and fiat currencies are widely adopted in crypto and the real world. CBDC will give people more control. If someone is financially dependent on you, you can force him to do anything for you. This will give the government more control over their people because they will be financially helpless.

Bitcoin will also suffer in the event of such a situation. The problem is that 99.9% of cryptocurrency, today, has no real useful value, except for that formed by the speculative market. And in case of global problems, who needs a low-liquidity, worthless asset in the real world? Gold, food, other demanded goods and assets will be in price

Thank you for the correction and advice to find detailed and accurate data regarding this problem. There is a distortion of data with a certain purpose after we compare one data with another, this is a kind of FUD in my opinion what is being spread by @Whalewire. Of course, with due diligence and further research, we all know that the economic situation is still above control.

Thank you for the source link which will be useful for me and other members for research materials or market observations.

You are correct that Bitcoin may fall to $20,000 or even lower before it enters into bullish phase, and this forecast is also shared in analysis of many prominent crypto analysts. A lot of noise revolving around ETF approval may keep the Bitcoin price extremely volatile during the period before ETF of prominent institutions like Blackrock is finally approved, expected in first quarter in 2024.

Moreover, it is also possible that many traditional banks including entities like HSBC are likely to allow investment and trading in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, that can help them to grow their business and stay competitive in the market.

Regarding ETFs, this is still vague in my opinion. The SEC is still keeping its distance regarding Crypto/Bitcoin so whether or not an ETF from Blackrock or anywhere else will be accepted is still unclear. The protective nature of the SEC is very clear and maybe this is good for Bitcoin in the future too.

Many factors can influence BTC volatility apart from ETFs, economic data releases, Powell's speech or bad news can also make BTC very volatile.

With that events many would think to liquidate there assets and put it on more safer place. I don't know why there are other people think that if there's a economic crisis it can give huge advantage to crypto users. Maybe they think about short term since those fiat investors might go on crypto to find good opportunities but in long run they will not stay and decide to maybe buy gold since this is more safer investment they could take. For us crypto users maybe we will not get affected much on those crisis since even if they are experiencing negatives on that situation.

We can still earn since crypto market is volatile and anyone can do good trades or even continue to offer our service to the clients who's working something in crypto industry.

Certainly, there are various factors beside ETFs those can influence the Bitcoin price, in particular interest rate fluctuations and updates on regulatory developments. Today, Bitcoin is persistently making effort to breach  $27,000, and if it succeeds surpassing this significant resistance, there is a chance ,we could see a minor rally in coming weeks, with the potential for Bitcoin to approach $30,000 mark, which is an important psychological barrier.


You are absolutely correct that Ukraine-Russia war is one of root causes of ongoing economic crisis that has caused rise in inflation due to rising fuel & food prices across the globe. We must raise our voices though all available platform of social media to compel world leaders to bring this conflict to an end through meaningful negotiations.

Recently Bitcoin was perched at $27,000 and is still consolidating in that area. I hope there will be a little positive movement over the next few weeks.

The Nato camp and the Russian camp are equally strong. They each have strong egos to enter and monopolize the economy, of course. Any peaceful steps and attempts at a ceasefire will be a bit tough. Apart from that, Russia and several coalitions are also raising BRICS which will shake the USD in the future. I see the potential for Bitcoin/Crypto here as an alternative in the future and of course there is a big possibility for America to utilize crypto to save its dominance. We just noticed that many large American companies/institutions are stockpiling BTC, there are good rumors about ETFs in the region.

While Bitcoin's correlation with the traditional financial market rises and falls, it has more or less been established that influential macroeconomic trends can certainly affect Bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't anymore the isolated independent island that it may have been perceived. Although there's still a considerably amount of fluidity or unpredictability in Bitcoin's relationship with the traditional financial market, I don't think it won't be affected by such a huge economic crisis as a market crash in no less than the US. And considering how institutions are already part of the game, there will certainly be a significant sell off.

Your observation is valid about correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risky markets,  highlighting how it can change with shifts in fundamentals of Bitcoin. I think it is also possible that once the market capitalization of Bitcoin approaches close to $6 trillion (estimated) similar to Forex market, it will become more stable and its price fluctuations will primarily influenced by its intrinsic strengths and weaknesses, rather than external factors tied to traditional financial markets.

whenever you see small businesses file bankruptcy.. most of the time its for them to write off debt and start the same service/product under a different brand the following month.. thus no societal harm to employees/customers

however when you see national chains go bankrupt. the big thing people need to look into is the pension fund deficit.. yes employees dont lose their jobs but find out the CEO has been syphoning off their pension deposits too

here in the UK a national chain called wilko's resently went into administration but the biggest story is that for its 2000 employees it has a massive £58m-£76m pension deficit.. yep £29,000-£38,000 pension loss per average employee.. which is alot of money

what we around the world experienced in 2008 with the real estate fiasco. we will start to see with the pensions deficit in the next decade

i know most americans will say they dont care because they have protected private 401k's but even they are at risk..
i just checked a US national chain that went into administration (bed bath& beyond) and even they have linked in some pension warnings
https://www.theretirementgroup.com/featured-article/5448093/attention-bed-bath-beyond-employees-vanguard-report-reveals-significant-decline-in-401k-balances-over-two-years?hsLang=en
heres the comedy

inflation does not make peoples account balance diminish.. $141k would still be $141k but how many loaves of bread or sports cars you can buy with it would be less .. but when they say money has escaped the accounts leaving individuals with less funds on average.. that means companies have been taking money out/losin money.. but not from inflation

You have a good point and sort of reminder here. People seem to think that inflation means their money in their savings account will diminish or their annual salary from their job will dramatically go down. What it is really is though is that their income is turning to not be enough with price hikes due to inflation. The example is as simple as you have stated it to be, you will still have the same amount of money but the quantity and quality of the products and services that same amount will get you will be drastically different due to inflation. Perhaps some of us needs a reminder of what inflation does to our money, cause it seems like they are blaiming it for everything these days (although I cannot deny that is is and has been a source of a lot of problems too).

I am not really surprised by that data, I don't mean that I know beforehand, but I already saw mass layoff by several big companies happened several times since earlier this year. Especially companies that operating around Southeast Asia, it's where I live. I also work in marketing agencies, so I realize that companies are cutting their marketing budget.


I think everyone realize that it's different now, previously before covid, when stock market and economy in general is falling people are turn their speculation to Bitcoin, but the current Bitcoin price is already so high for people to do that again. On the latest stock market crash after covid Bitcoin are joining the bear market, so if the situation get worse, Bitcoin could probably pretty much affected.

It's expected that when a company does badly, the workers are the first ones to go. The reason for this is that when you hire a lot of people, that is because you expected growing profits and that means that if you have more workers then you would be able to pay them with your growing profits and then make some more on top of that.

But, if you hired them, and didn't make that profit, that means you need to fire them to get back to what you should be having instead of what you had, otherwise you are going to keep losing more and more money. Salary is a big cost, usually bigger than anything else, and that would mean that if you do it smartly then you could make a profit back again when you drop that number down.

Bankruptcy is more of a personal problem but there are still workers on a company and they can not invest in BTC once they got fired, so it may affect the BTC price. Economic issues can be global. This is the ones that can affect the price of BTC the most but it won't last long.

People into DCA is not a new thing but yeah it helps a lot so that the price won't totally collapse in the bad times. Given that DCA is not a new thing, people have more expectations beyond halving. You got a point there about the Covid and its effect in BTC. I think this is also because people are mainly doing online transactions because there are lockdowns and quarantines that time.

The spike in BTC prices during the Covid pandemic was indeed a time when many people were staying at home due to lockdown and quarantine. So at that time the inflow of money towards high risk investments experienced a high spike. And not only for crypto and BTC but also for the online gaming industry which experienced a fairly high increase in users during Covid. This halving may have a slightly different cause that will bring about an increase in the price of BTC. Namely, currently we know that many institutions are trying to re-enter BTC investments. In fact, several large companies have also applied for a Bitcoin Spot ETF, which is certain that when the SEC receives the application, a surge in BTC prices will also occur. The bankruptcies of many large and small banks and companies that will occur in 2023 also seem to have an effect on the rate of bitcoin prices. But I saw that when several banks went bankrupt what happened was that a lot of money went into the realm of investing in bitcoin and gold. We can see its history in the market. When there is an announcement of the bankruptcy of a bank, there is actually more money flowing into gold and BTC. So talking about impacts is always there. But we don't know whether this impact will be negative or positive. Maybe if a factory company or something went bankrupt which resulted in many employees being laid off then maybe that would have a negative impact.

If it happens, it will affect BTC price, but, I think, in positive ways. If fiat currencies lose their value, it's only logical to accumulate Bitcoin in times like that. Why it should be affected negatively I don't understand. One of its purposes is to serve people during economic crisis in their countries, to help them to survive. Remember Zimbabwean trillions? If Bitcoin was around at that time many people would be saved financially.

Of course that a stock market crash and a big recession/depression will negatively affect the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin reached historically high prices in times of very low interest rates, when the financial markets were flooded with newly printed money by the Federal Reserve and the other central banks. The times of "easy money" and low interest rates are gone(for a while) and this leads to multiple companies going bankrupt and to prices of financial assets going down.
We might be witnessing a stock market crash in 2024, but the Federal Reserve will have to stop it by discontinuing the interest rate hikes and start "saving the economy" by pumping more newly printed money into the financial markets.

"For a while" is the key here, in my opinion. Times of low interest rates will be here again, and not once, and at least those times we can expect new all time highs, but not only during those times. The fourth Bitcoin halving is coming. This can incentivize people to buy BTC while it's relatively cheap. Should we believe that Bitcoin will never be over $60k again? I don't think so. We'd been there when BTC reached $1, then $100, then $1,200, then $20k ... Each time skeptics were saying that Bitcoin was grossly overpriced, and yet we all know what happened some time after that.